1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the resonance of macro and news factors, with the policy expectations of macro - structural adjustment and supply optimization fermenting, but the logic between fundamental verification and macro expectations may fluctuate before clear policies on nickel are implemented. The nickel ore support is weakening, and the low - cost supply increment of refined nickel and high inventory in the ferronickel segment have an impact on the price [1]. - The marginal direction of stainless steel prices is dominated by macro sentiment, and the elasticity of the real - world fundamental logic is poor. The macro policy expectations on the domestic supply - side boost commodities, but a clear policy is needed for a trend - upward movement. The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to follow the macro sentiment and fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Fundamentals - **Macro and News Factors**: Macro policy expectations are fermenting, but no clear policies on nickel have been implemented. Short - term policy news from Indonesia is frequent but within market expectations. APNI suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, and the Indonesian government may change the RKAB approval cycle [1]. - **Real - world Situation**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, with the premium starting to decline in July after an increase in Indonesian quota approvals, and the fire - method cash cost has decreased by 1.4%. Refined nickel inventory is stable in the short term, but the expected increase in low - cost supply is a drag. Ferronickel inventory is high, but marginal restocking slightly boosts the price [1]. 3.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Macro and Real - world Logic**: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices. The real - world fundamental logic has poor elasticity. The macro policy expectations on the supply - side boost commodities, but specific policies are needed for a trend - upward movement [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern. The resonance production cuts in China and Indonesia from June to July have alleviated the over - supply situation. The apparent demand in June increased by 2% year - on - year, and the production in June increased by 4% year - on - year, while the production plan for July decreased [2]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: The ferronickel inventory in mid - July was 37,534 tons, up 50% year - on - year and down 11% month - on - month [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. The inventory of various types of stainless steel also decreased [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 395,100 wet tons to 9.8787 million wet tons [5]. 3.4 Market News - **Trade - related News**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - **Project - related News**: In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, entered the trial - production stage [6]. - **Environmental - related News**: Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on the verified illegal companies [6]. - **Policy - related News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [6][7]. - **Production - related News**: Due to long - term production losses, an Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial park has suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as the prices and spreads of various nickel - related products such as imported nickel, ferronickel, and nickel ore are provided [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][5] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Coke: Bullish after the second price increase, with a trend strength of 1 [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish due to supply policy constraints, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16] - Steam coal: Stabilizing with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][24] Core Views - The report provides daily investment outlooks and trend strengths for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. Analyses are based on fundamental data, macro and industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Movement**: Futures closed at 812 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-1.34%); import and most domestic ore spot prices declined [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Price Movement**: RB2510 closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.31%); HC2510 closed at 3,438 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In June, total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, up 5.4% year - on - year. A new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plans will be released soon. Weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products [9][10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Movement**: Futures prices of both declined, while spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: On July 23, prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions increased. Some changes in production and procurement of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese occurred [13][14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: JM2509 closed at 1,135.5 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton (8.30%); J2509 closed at 1,707.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) [16] - **Price & Position**: Northern port coking coal quotes and CCI metallurgical coal index showed price changes. On July 23, there were changes in long and short positions of JM2509 and J2509 contracts [16][17][18] Steam Coal - **Price Movement**: ZC2507 had no trading on the previous day, previous opening was 931.6 yuan/ton, closing at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21] - **Fundamentals**: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were provided. On July 23, there were no changes in long and short positions of ZC2507 [22] Logs - **Price Movement**: There were declines in closing prices of 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts, with fluctuations in trading volume and open interest [25] - **Macro & Industry News**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [27]

Report Overview - Date: July 23, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Content: Morning report on the black series of commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro expectations, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Driven by macro sentiment, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Boosted by the macro market, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][11] - Coke: The second round of price increases has been implemented, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Coking coal: The expected supply policy constraints have been strengthened, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption has recovered, showing a stable and volatile trend [2][20] - Logs: Showing a fluctuating and repeated trend [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 1.73% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 43,544 lots. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 14 yuan/ton for Jumbuck (61%) [4] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4] - **Trend strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 3.12%. The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,477 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 2.84%. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 80 yuan/ton for hot-rolled coil in Tianjin [7] - **Macro and industry news**: In June, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel [7][9] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree [11] - **Macro and industry news**: On July 22, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions increased. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal increased significantly. The spot price of coke in Rizhao Port increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some coking coal varieties also increased [15] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both coke and coking coal [17] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental data**: The ZC2507 contract of thermal coal had no trading volume. The prices of southern port and domestic origin coal are provided. The long and short positions of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange did not change [20][21] - **Trend strength**: 0 [22] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The prices of log futures contracts showed fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of some wood squares [24] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [26] - **Trend strength**: 0 [26]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on July 22, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Different commodities in the black series have different trends: iron ore shows a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese maintain strong - side oscillations due to persistent market sentiment; coke and coking coal are oscillating strongly; thermal coal stabilizes with oscillating as daily consumption recovers; logs oscillate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton with a 3.06% increase. The open - interest decreased by 29,220 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore all increased. Some basis and spreads showed minor changes [4]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; for hot - rolled coils HC2510, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton with a 2.20% increase. Spot prices in different regions increased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - **News**: In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries. Steel production and inventory data in July showed certain changes [8][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia and silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia both increased by 50 yuan/ton. Some basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [14]. - **News**: On July 21, prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions increased. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined. In June, the national manganese ore import volume decreased compared to May but increased compared to the same period last year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Oscillating strongly [2][18][19]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton with an 8.64% increase; for coke J2509, the closing price was 1,603 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton with a 5.60% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions had minor changes, and some basis and spreads changed significantly [19]. - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index on July 21 were released. Regarding the open - interest, for coking coal JM2509, long - position decreased by 8,626 lots and short - position decreased by 12,469 lots; for coke J2509, long - position increased by 358 lots and short - position increased by 74 lots [19][20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [21]. Thermal Coal - **Trend**: Stabilizing with oscillating as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic thermal coal origin quotes were provided. Regarding the open - interest, both long - position and short - position of the ZC2507 contract decreased by 0 lots [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different log contracts showed certain changes. Spot prices of various log products remained stable [26]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market is in a positive feedback process of expectations, with steel prices continuing to rise. The macro - expectations boost the market, the futures prices rise significantly and are at a premium to the spot prices. Traders buy spot and sell futures, reducing the liquidity of spot and causing the spot prices to follow the upward trend [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Analysis - **Macro - environment**: Overseas, there are tariff disturbances, and macro - trading is temporarily inclined to maintain high interest rates, leading to an increase in the US dollar index. Domestically, the market is trading on supply - side expectations, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting [5]. - **Black industry chain**: During the off - season, steel demand exceeds expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits expand, the decline of hot metal production is slow, and the negative feedback mechanism is not working well. The market is pricing in the peak - season demand in advance, and future attention should be paid to domestic policy stimuli [5]. 3.2 Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3147 (+14) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 103 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 44 (-16) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reversal opportunities [17]. - **Demand**: Second - hand housing transactions remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - home transactions remain low, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction areas also remain low. In addition, as it enters the off - season, demand indicators show a seasonal decline [21][22]. - **Inventory**: MS weekly data shows that rebar inventories are at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [24]. - **Production profit**: Last week, the rebar spot profit was 324 (-23) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 272 (-25) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 137 (-17) yuan/ton [32]. 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3340 (+40) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3310 (+37) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 30 (+3) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 10 (-3) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reversal opportunities [38]. - **Demand**: The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, causing the demand for hot - rolled coils to weaken month - on - month. Also, the convergence of domestic and foreign price spreads has led to a decline in steel exports [42][43]. - **Inventory**: MS weekly data shows that the off - season demand slightly exceeds expectations, and the inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils has slowed down [45]. - **Production**: Steel mills maintain high production levels [47]. - **Production profit**: Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 246 (-13) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 285 (-2) yuan/ton [51]. 3.4 Variety Spread Structure - The report presents the historical data and trends of spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - roll spread, etc., providing a reference for understanding the price relationships between different steel products [53][54]. 3.5 Variety Regional Difference - It shows the regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc., which helps to understand the market price differences in different regions [61][62][63]. 3.6 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates, which is helpful for analyzing the supply - demand situation of these two products [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is experiencing a positive feedback loop, with steel prices expected to continue rising. The iron ore market is supported by macro - factors, leading to a valuation increase. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish as demand is being released. The ferroalloy market has a tight spot demand, and the cost is pushed up by the futures market [3][6][75][133]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Steel Market Outlook - The steel market is driven by positive feedback from expectations. Macro - factors include tariff disturbances overseas and a focus on supply - side expectations and waiting for the 730 Politburo meeting domestically. The off - season steel demand is better than expected, with low inventories, expanding steel mill profits, slow decline in hot metal production, and poor transmission of negative feedback [8]. 3.1.2 Threaded Steel - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai threaded steel spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3147 (+14) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 103 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 44 (- 16) yuan/ton [21]. - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. In the off - season, demand indicators decline seasonally [22][26]. - **Inventory**: Steel inventories are at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure in the industrial chain [28]. - **Profit**: Both spot and futures profits are shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 324 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the futures profit was 272 (- 25) yuan/ton [38]. 3.1.3 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3340 (+40) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3310 (+37) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 30 (+3) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 10 (- 3) yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the white - goods production is in the off - season. The convergence of internal and external price differences has led to a decline in steel exports [47][48]. - **Inventory**: The off - season demand is slightly better than expected, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. Steel mills maintain high production levels [50][53]. - **Profit**: Both spot and futures profits are shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 246 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the futures profit was 285 (- 2) yuan/ton [57]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Outlook - The supply of mainstream iron ore shipments continues to decline from a high level, but freight rates are stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. Iron ore demand is strong, with hot metal production rebounding against the season and high port clearance. The "anti - involution" theme trading sentiment is strong, and the market expects potential "supply - side reform - like" interventions in the steel industry. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile and bullish [77]. 3.2.2 Contract Performance - The main 09 contract price is volatile and bullish, closing at 785.0 yuan/ton, with an open interest of 693,000 lots (an increase of 31,000 lots). The average daily trading volume was 384,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 54,000 lots [79]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - Spot prices generally follow the futures market, with high - grade ore prices catching up. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) increased from 845 to 870 yuan/ton [83]. 3.2.4 Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: Mainstream shipments decreased month - on - month, but freight rates stabilized and rebounded. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Overall shipments decreased month - on - month, and the recovery in Peru was limited. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate in the southwest region increased, and the overall national capacity utilization rate stabilized [88][93][100]. 3.2.5 Demand - Hot metal production increased month - on - month in the off - season, and the port clearance volume remained at a high level compared to previous years. The substitution effect of scrap steel weakened as the price difference between scrap and hot metal decreased significantly [102][105]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventories has not arrived yet [110]. 3.2.7 Price Spreads - High - medium and medium - low grade ore price spreads both increased significantly. The PB lump - powder spread showed a slight narrowing trend. The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads strengthened, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has narrowed to the low level of the same period last year, while the 09 contract is close to par [119][124][125]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Market Outlook - The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering but at a limited pace. The demand is increasing as blast furnace overhauls are completed and hot metal production is rising. The inventory will mainly be replenished based on rigid demand. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the enthusiasm of downstream replenishment after the coke price increase needs to be monitored [133][134][137]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The domestic coking coal supply decreased slightly this week, with the sample coal mine raw coal output decreasing by 2.65 tons to 1227.88 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate dropping by 0.18% to 85.43%. The independent coking plant's daily average coke output was 64.2 (+0.1) [136][139]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased, and coke enterprises and intermediate links actively purchased, but the overall arrival of coke at enterprises did not improve significantly [136]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill's coke inventory is at a medium level, but due to the influence of the futures market, traders' purchases have tightened the supply, and the steel mill's inventory has decreased. The available days of coke inventory in the monitored steel enterprises are 10.85 days, a decrease of 0.18 days compared to last week [134]. - **Profit**: The profit of coking coal is 326 (+36), and the average profit of coke enterprises is - 65 (- 35) [139].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, with optimistic domestic and overseas macro - environments and coking coal price concessions as a supporting factor, the steel futures market is rising. The downstream's enthusiasm for covering short positions and spot - futures trading has increased, and steel mills' orders are good. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. - For iron ore, its short - term fundamentals are strengthening. Although there may be a slight weakening in the long - term, the contradictions are not significant. With high inventory, potential for increased shipments, and stable steel mill demand, it is still considered strong in the short term [20]. - Regarding coal and coke, the short - term market may continue to be strong due to the current good profitability of downstream steel mills. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making rate may not be sustainable [29]. - In the ferroalloy market, driven by anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, it has been rising slowly. But considering the weakening cost and downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to be weak in the long - term, with possible fluctuations [46]. - For soda ash, due to the expected disturbances and fundamental limitations, it is rising in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related factors [58]. - In the glass market, the price has moved up. The supply side has a co - existence of ignition and cold - repair, and the market needs to observe the improvement of market sentiment and the real downstream demand [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3191, 3207, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3320, 3327, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3319 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan/ton on July 18, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 753, 730, and 785 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 773 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output on July 18, 2025, was 242.44 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13785.21 tons [24]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [30]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1030 yuan/ton [31]. - **Profit and Spread**: The on - site coking profit on July 18, 2025, was 73 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.517 [30]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 72 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1306, 1216, and 1265 yuan/ton respectively [60]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1240, 1081, and 1165 yuan/ton respectively [90]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 74 yuan/ton [90]. - **Production and Sales**: From July 8 - 13, 2025, the production - sales ratio in Shahe ranged from 91% to 120%, and in Hubei from 92% to 163% [92].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market. Recent international developments have shown marginal improvement, with the U.S. fiscal expansion plan helping to alleviate recession expectations and stabilize global capital markets [1] - Domestic efforts to combat "involution" are ongoing, which is expected to ease overcapacity concerns and positively impact profit expectations. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic data for June and the first half of the year, as well as future policy directions [1] - The two markets exhibited volatility and differentiation, with trading volume decreasing. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight rebound, closing above the five-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight decline. The total trading volume was around 1.4 trillion yuan, down from the previous Friday [1] Group 2 - The market structure showed more stocks rising than falling, with a notable increase in the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up, although there was also a rise in limit down stocks, which warrants attention. The main market focus was on the robotics and power sectors, with small-cap stocks leading in gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, continuing to move upward. After surpassing the small trading range from May and June, it has crossed above the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, with the main technical resistance level now at the high point from early October last year, which also represents the top of the weekly large trading range [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil plates will have wide - range oscillations due to the undiminished sector sentiment [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are slightly boosted by the settlement of steel tender prices [2][10]. - Coke will oscillate with an upward trend [2][13]. - Coking coal will oscillate with an upward trend affected by news disturbances [2][14]. - Steam coal will stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][18]. - Logs will have wide - range oscillations due to the change of the main contract [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12509) closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.33%). The import and domestic ore prices generally increased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil Plate - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of HC2510 closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. China's steel exports in June were 967.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.0 million tons from the previous month. The weekly data on July 10 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hot - rolled coil plate is 0 [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts increased. The spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the tender prices for silicon iron and silicon manganese in July and increased the procurement volume [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: The port prices of coking coal and the CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were provided [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day. The opening, high, low, and closing prices and trading volume and open interest were reported [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: The prices of imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas were provided. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were reported [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts (2509, 2511, 2601) showed different trends. The spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The macro - face is positive. The National Development and Reform Commission expects China's GDP in 2025 to be around 140 trillion yuan, and will promote the modern infrastructure system. The State Council aims to stabilize employment and the economy through policy measures [1]. - The fundamental data last week was weak. The production and sales of the five major steel products declined, and the inventory remained flat. The production, apparent demand, and inventory of rebar all decreased, and the demand for building materials was in the off - season. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased, and the inventory increased slightly for three consecutive weeks [1]. - The recent rebound of rebar futures is mainly due to positive macro - expectations and supplemented by the improvement of the supply - demand structure. The short - term market sentiment is warm, and the futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. However, due to the weak demand pattern, the upward pressure on the futures price is still large [1][5] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures rose strongly supported by macro - sentiment. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 (+30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+50) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300 (+50) yuan/ton [4]. - The macro - situation is positive with expected GDP scale and employment - stabilizing policies [4]. - The industrial data shows that last week, rebar production was 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; apparent demand was 221 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; factory inventory was 181 million tons, unchanged; social inventory was 359 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; total inventory was 540 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; factory inventory was 78 million tons, a decrease of 0.51 million tons; social inventory was 268 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; total inventory was 346 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; apparent demand was 323 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [1][5] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development aims to stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. - Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period and announced new tariffs on Mexican and EU products [10]. - 33 construction enterprises issued an "anti - involution" initiative [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission gave GDP expectations and infrastructure development plans [10]. - The State Council issued an employment - stabilizing policy [10] Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel futures, including rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and consumption [9][11][16]