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投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-11-20 炉料延续分化，成材表现承压 近期国内样本建筑⼯地资⾦到位率⼩幅增⻓，淡季需求回落之后表现 出⼀定韧性，但淡季成材基本⾯亮点有限，盘⾯表现承压。短期铁⽔ 预计仍有⽀撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格表现坚挺。煤 焦库存延续低位，但煤炭保供背景下供应收紧预期弱化，叠加仓单压 ⼒仍存，煤焦价格延续偏弱。 近期国内样本建筑工地资金到位率小幅增长，淡季需求回落之后表现 出一定韧性，但淡季成材基本面亮点有限，盘面表现承压。短期铁水 预计仍有支撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格表现坚挺。煤 焦库存延续低位，但煤炭保供背景下供应收紧预期弱化，叠加仓单压 力仍存，煤焦价格延续偏弱。 1. 铁元素方面：海外矿山发运环比明显回升，澳巴和非主流国家发 运均有增加，到港量冲高后环比继续回落，港口卸货和入库量减少， 港口库存环比小幅下降。小样本铁水小幅下降，大规模检修尚未出 现，短期铁水预计仍有支撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格 表现坚挺。废钢基本面供需双弱，预计短期现货价格跟随成材震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：环保限制解除后 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月20日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.4万吨，环比增长2.44%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为26.7万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为56300吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为-156元/吨，处于亏 损状态，其综合开工率为72.18%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.21万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为410元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为669.5元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.6%，环比增加2.54%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧5 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 11月19日 | 11月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6833 | 6785 | 48.00 | 0.71% | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6883 | 6852 | 31.00 | 0.45% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6434 | 6392 | 42.00 | 0.66% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6532 | 6497 | 35.00 | 0.54% | | | L15价差 | -50 | -67 | 17.00 | 25.37% | 元/吨 | | PP15价差 | -98 | -105 | 7.00 | 6.67% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6400 | 6360 | 40.00 | 0.63% | | | 华北LLDPE现货价格 | 6800 | 6770 | 30.00 | 0.44% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -30 | -10 | -20.00 | -200.00% | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in the given content - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in the given content - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly defined in the given content Core Views - The supply - side contraction has not led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and the rebound space of oil prices is still limited despite the overnight rebound [2] - The logic of high - sulfur being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently strong due to supply - side fluctuations, but there is still medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pattern is expected to be loose in the medium term [2] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, demand is seasonally weakening, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The import cost of international liquefied petroleum gas is expected to rise in December, and the supply - demand relationship is tightening marginally, so LPG is expected to be volatile and bullish [3] Summaries by Relevant Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC01 contract rising 0.48% during the day. WTI is sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations above the US shale oil marginal production cost of $50/barrel. As the US sanctions on Russian oil take effect on November 21, major Indian buyers have suspended purchasing Russian crude for December delivery, and Trump mentioned sanctions legislation against countries trading with Russia and Iran. However, the API inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels last week, limiting the oil price rebound space [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently strong due to supply - side issues. Overseas refinery operations are unstable, the Kuwait Azur refinery has no clear restart date, Kuwait's fuel oil shipments are low, and the conversion of low - sulfur export quotas to refined oil in China is 490,000 tons. The end - of - year export pressure in China has eased marginally, and the fourth - quarter shipping fuel peak season and improved Sino - US trade relations have boosted the fundamentals. But the planned maintenance of the Dangote refinery's RFOC unit in late December may increase low - sulfur shipments, and medium - term supply pressure exists. High - sulfur fuel oil: Russia's shipments to Asia increased by 0.9% to 1.31 million tons in November, but the actual exports after November 21 are uncertain. With the Middle East's stable production increase and the end of the power - generation peak season, local exports are expected to increase, and the feedstock demand may decline after the new quota issuance, leading to a loose medium - term supply pattern [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - $11/barrel, weakening the cost support. The weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month since November and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The commercial inventory destocking has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has expanded since late October. The demand for the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - year project rush has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, with a bearish impact on BU in the medium and long term [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The expected import cost of international liquefied petroleum gas will increase in December. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting up, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the combustion - end demand. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The marginal tightening of supply - demand has boosted LPG to be seen as volatile and bullish [3]

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月19日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | | | 品中 | 11月18日 | 11月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | L2601收盘价 | 6785 | 6843 | -58.00 | -0.85% | | | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6852 | 6902 | -50.00 | -0.72% | | | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6392 | 6467 | -75.00 | -1.16% | | | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6497 | ୧୧୧୧ | -68.00 | -1.04% | | | | | L15价差 | -67 | - 20 | -8.00 | -13.56% | 元/吨 | | | | PP15价差 | -105 | -98 | -7.00 | -7.14% | | | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6360 | 6430 | -70.00 | -1.09% | ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 欧洲柴油价格上涨带动油价反弹。成品油：欧美成品油利润良好，欧洲柴 | | 原油 | | 油价格大涨带动油价反弹；供需：消费淡季，OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美 | | | | 国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 基差偏高，期货盘面偏高估，价格承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动，震 | | LPG | | 荡调整；供需方面，液化气商品量下降，下游 PDH 开工小幅下降，需求 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 端韧性较强；库存端利好，港口与厂内库存连续去库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 社会库存缓慢去化，盘面低位震荡。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口资源 | | L | 空头盘整 | 集中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 5 周下滑，11 月下旬后棚膜 | | ★ | | 旺季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油价中期仍存下移风险，成本支撑不足。 | | | | 策略：绝对价格低位，空单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - **Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - **Price and Sales Data**: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].

| G国贸期货 | 日時 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 20 | 份格号:F02519 | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 農湯 | | 投稿 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 无刘全部 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 国 | 震荡 | 至间。 | 近期市场对美联储12月降息预期降温,铜价回调,但预计回调幅 | | | | | 農汤 | 度有限。 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而美联储12月份降息预期降温,铝价回调 | | | | | | 農汤 | JE | 在生产仍有小幅利润情况下,国内氧化铝产能持续释放,氧化铝 | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价格继续围绕 | HE STAC | 成本线附近震荡运行。 | 美联储12月降 ...