Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price recovered from its low, with a daily increase of 0.32%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Before the holiday, rebar demand is rising while production remains stable, and the supply - demand situation has improved slightly. However, downstream performance is still sluggish, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve substantially. The upward momentum is weak, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that rebar prices will continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.24%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Currently, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are weak due to the situation of weak supply and demand, and the high - supply pressure persists, putting pressure on prices. The positive factor is the rising cost. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to demand performance [6]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.25%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, ore demand is decent, supporting the ore price. However, demand is expected to weaken, while supply is rising, and the supply - demand situation is expected to deteriorate. The high - valued ore price has limited upward momentum, and it will continue to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday. Attention should be paid to changes in open interest [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The OECD raised the global growth forecast for this year to 3.2% from 2.9% in June, but warned of tariff and inflation risks. The forecast for 2026 remains at 2.9%, both lower than the 3.3% growth rate in 2024. Global exports to the US face a maximum tariff rate of 50%, and some countries are negotiating new trade frameworks [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development announced that in 2025, the plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to August, 21,700 such projects have started. Regions like Hebei, Liaoning, and others have completed all planned projects [9]. - South Korea imposed temporary anti - dumping duties on carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan on September 23, 2025. The duty rate for Chinese exporters is 33.10%, and for Japanese exporters, it ranges from 31.58% to 33.57%. The measure is valid for four months until January 22, 2026, with some product exclusions [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,260, 3,230, and 3,306 respectively. For hot - rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm), the prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,400, 3,330, and 3,439 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) is 3,030, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) is 2,160. The coil - rebar price difference is 140, and the rebar - scrap price difference is 1,100 [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 796, and Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) is 798. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.82 and from Brazil is 25.21. The SGX swap (current month) is 105.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) is 106.50 [11]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,167 | 0.32 | 3,175 | 3,152 | 883,015 | - 322,137 | 1,870,449 | - 11,775 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,358 | 0.24 | 3,362 | 3,343 | 337,428 | - 130,346 | 1,369,716 | 1,955 | | Iron ore | - | 805.5 | 0.25 | 808.0 | 799.5 | 191,183 | - 11,238 | 529,740 | - 9,319 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventories (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories), iron ore inventories (including 45 - port and 247 - steel mill inventories), and steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and steel mill profitability) [15][20][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. Rebar production increased slightly week - on - week, but due to poor profitability, the short - term production increase momentum is weak. Demand has improved, but high - frequency trading is weak, and both supply and demand are at low levels compared to previous years. Before the holiday, demand is rising, supply is stable, but downstream performance is still sluggish. The fundamentals are unlikely to improve substantially, and the upward momentum is weak. Cost support is a positive factor. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand situation remains weak, with increasing inventories. Production decreased slightly week - on - week, and the supply pressure is still high. Demand is losing its resilience, with a slight week - on - week decline in apparent demand and a drop in high - frequency trading. Although the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has increased significantly, industrial contradictions persist, and external demand improvement is limited. The positive factor is the rising cost. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand situation has changed. Steel mill production is stable, and ore consumption has continued to rise, with daily pig iron production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increasing slightly week - on - week. Pre - holiday restocking has supported the ore price. However, steel market contradictions are accumulating, and steel profits are shrinking, so demand resilience will weaken. At the same time, port arrivals in China have increased significantly, overseas shipments have decreased slightly but remain at a relatively high level, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing supply pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-09-25 俄罗斯炼⼚持续受袭，地缘短期提振能 化 乌克兰继续轰炸俄罗斯炼厂，柴油的强势提振了原油价格。柴油是全 球所有成品油中需求最大的品类，2024年俄罗斯柴油产量占全球比例为6. 5%，柴油出口占全球比例12.15%。8月迄今乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂进行了 23次袭击，这是今年1-7月总的袭击次数，市场担心柴油的供给再有减 量，柴油的裂解价差走高，汽油也同样居高不下，这给原油价格带来支 撑，未来至少要看到轰炸次数的减少，该因素对油价的影响才会减弱。 板块逻辑： 诸多化工品近期都已经临近至暗时刻，估值被大幅压缩，供需两端压 力导致产业利润压力重重。PTA的现货加工费仅有170元/吨，距离企业盈 亏平衡的300元/吨已经持续一段时间；苯乙烯非一体化和POSM类型装置双 双陷入亏损，苯乙烯的检修也在酝酿中，年底苯乙烯又有两套新装置将投 产；PVC出口至印度的关税被大幅提升，而三季度PVC的新产能刚刚集中释 放；还有产能不断释放的聚烯烃、EG。四季度化工企业的日子仍将艰难。 原油：地缘担忧重燃，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青-燃油价差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market is oscillating with unclear unilateral direction. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading, and the positions for phased basis buying hedging can be rolled for profit - taking [3]. - The sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. Industrial customers are advised to focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [3]. - The coking coal spot is strong. It is suggested that the long - side open positions be gradually liquidated before the holiday, and sell - hedging should be carried out when the price rises again [3]. - There are still supports for iron ore before the holiday. A long - at - low strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2605 closed at 3227.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.22%); HC2605 at 3365.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan (0.26%); J2605 at 1871.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan (1.30%); JM2605 at 1312.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan (0.85%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2601 closed at 3164.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan (0.03%); HC2601 at 3357.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan (0.24%); I2601 at 803.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 at 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan (1.14%); JM2601 at 1224.50 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan (1.24%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios (September 24th)**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 63.00 yuan/ton; the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 8.00 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 was 20.50 yuan/ton; the spread between J2601 and J2605 was - 141.00 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2601 and JM2605 was - 87.50 yuan/ton. The coil - to - rebar spread was 193.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, the rebar futures profit was - 84.53 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 101.42 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products (September 24th)**: Shanghai rebar was 3290.00 yuan/ton, up 12.40 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 106.50, up 0.30. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3430.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3390.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 260.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan [1]. - **Other Products (September 24th)**: The price of Super Special Powder was 710.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of mixed powder at Qingdao Port was 745.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1285.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan [1]. - **Basis (September 24th)**: The basis of HC was 63.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the basis of RB was 126.00 yuan/ton, up 31.00 yuan; the basis of I was 26.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J was - 157.37 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan; the basis of JM was 90.50 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Steel**: The futures price was stable on Wednesday, and the spot price slightly stabilized. The trading volume increased moderately compared with Tuesday. The data from Steel Valley Network showed that both supply and demand increased, but the inventory did not decline significantly, indicating that the peak - season demand was not strong. The macro - level US interest rate cut is beneficial to liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. The peak - season demand for steel is not strong, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials is not significant, which cannot drive a strong rebound. The cost support exists due to high pig iron production and pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but the high production of building materials increases potential concerns in the long - term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The anti - involution policy leads to tidal - style trading, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The two silicon alloys follow the market. The industry has turned from large losses to profits, and the supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand needs to be verified, and the risk of a decline in pig iron and electric - arc furnace operations is accumulating, which may impact the demand for the two alloys. The inventory is gradually accumulating, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coke at ports is weak, but the coking coal auction has good results due to pre - holiday replenishment, and most prices have risen. The futures market oscillates. From a macro perspective, there are signs of "all good news being priced in". From an industrial perspective, the supply - demand of steel has improved marginally before the holiday, and the cost support is effective. However, considering the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward drive from the industry is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long - side positions before the holiday and sell - hedge when the price rises [3]. - **Iron Ore**: After the iron ore meeting last week, there were many market rumors. The pig iron production has slightly increased to 240.02 million tons (+0.47). The profitability of steel mills has declined by 1.3% to 58.87%. The steel mills' replenishment for the National Day holiday is almost over. The transfer of iron ore inventory from ports to mills in the next week will support the price. The apparent demand for steel has slightly increased, mainly from rebar, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil has slightly declined. The steel mills have reduced rebar production, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight depletion. There is still support for iron ore before the National Day holiday, but the upside depends on the steel demand [3].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon increased last week, with a weekly supply of 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week. The demand also rose, reaching 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral, and the price of Industrial Silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8,890 - 9,150 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The production of polysilicon decreased last week, with a weekly output of 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease. The production of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally increasing, and the overall demand is showing a continuous recovery. The cost support is relatively stable. The price of Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 50,405 - 52,355 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is increasing, the demand is rising, and the cost support is weakening. The market shows a complex situation with factors such as inventory increase and positive and negative factors in the basis and main positions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The production is decreasing, but the downstream demand is recovering. The cost is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a specific range [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Rising costs and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main reason is the capacity mismatch [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventory, production, and capacity utilization of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week [15]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents data on the production, cost, price, and inventory of polysilicon and its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. For instance, the weekly inventory of polysilicon is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease [9][17]. 3.3 Market Trends and Balance Sheets - **Industrial Silicon**: Multiple charts show the trends of price - basis, inventory, production, capacity utilization, and supply - demand balance of industrial silicon. The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets are also provided [19][25][35][38]. - **Polysilicon**: There are charts depicting the price trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon and its downstream products [22][59][62].

V期到日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】129 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 80045 | 80010 | +35.00 | 0.04% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 રેર | રેર | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 80030 SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80030 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 70 | 70 | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | 79955 SMM湿法铜 | 79920 | +35.00 | 0.04% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 -35 | -35 | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 1879 | 1799 | +80.00 | 4.45% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 -73.11 | -72.44 | -0.67 | | 美元/吨 | | 进口图号 -109 | -79 | -29.82 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 24, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disruptions, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the ferroalloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - driven supply reduction and cost support, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and high inventory in some cases [7][8][9] Key Points by Section Ferroalloy Price and Hedging - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.1%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.0% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profit declined in early September, but has since recovered. Production remains at a five - year high, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement, and there may be a "no - peak season" situation [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/degree, and there are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October. Although current manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disruptions need attention [4] - **Term Structure and Capital Withdrawal**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has worsened. Ferroalloy positions are decreasing, with silicon ferroalloy's total position at 396,000 lots (down 6% week - on - week) and silicon manganese's at 551,400 lots (down 2.75% week - on - week) [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations and Weak Reality**: There are expectations of supply reduction, but lack of substantial actions, leading to a high risk of price reversals [5] 利多解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces, and an important article in the "Qiushi" magazine may address industry competition issues. Silicon ferroalloy enterprise inventory is 63,400 tons (down 9.3% week - on - week), and total inventory is 151,500 tons (down 0.53% week - on - week) [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. There are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October, which may affect silicon manganese costs [7] 利空解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy enterprises maintain high operating rates, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about steel demand. Silicon manganese inventory is increasing, with enterprise inventory at 198,900 tons (up 19.24% week - on - week), total inventory at 502,300 tons (up 5.97% week - on - week), and Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon manganese price down 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 18, down 100 day - on - day and 68 week - on - week. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 day - on - day and 30 week - on - week [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 198, down 12 day - on - day and up 62 week - on - week. The spot price in Ningxia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 day - on - day and 20 week - on - week [11]

9月24日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，PTA期货主力合约开盘报4580.00元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，PTA主力最高触及4630.00元，下方探低4560.00元，涨幅达1.27%附近。 华联期货分析称，供应端上周装置维持稳定，前期重启装置负荷提升，总体供应压力逐步回升。需求端 聚酯持稳，传统旺季需求端表现不温不火，终端订单情况一般。库存端行业库存延续去化，但聚酯产品 线累库。成本方面原油隔夜大幅反弹，TA估值驱动短线走强。总体看TA供需面有所走弱，技术面区间 震荡偏弱。操作方面区间偏空交易，2601合约参考压力4700-4750。 宁证期货指出，PTA供应存增加预期。需求看，聚酯及终端负荷较前期缓慢回升，短期需求端存一定支 撑，不过后续新订单以及负荷回暖预期有限，关注下终端接单情况出现好转的持续性。成本看，国内外 PX检修装置重启，PX供应逐步增至偏高水平，PXN承压；原油震荡。整体上，PTA震荡偏弱看待。 建信期货表示，原油小幅反弹，但PTA现货供应充足，需求缺乏利好支撑，成本支撑与供应充裕博弈， 预计PTA行情窄幅震荡。 目前来看，PTA行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于PT ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have corrected, with reduced spot trading volume and a still weak market sentiment. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are beneficial for mid - cycle liquidity and risk appetite, and the follow - up of domestic policies needs to be observed. Industry - level, steel demand in the off - season is not strong, and the improvement in building materials' apparent demand is not significant. There is cost support due to high hot metal production and pre - National Day furnace charge restocking, but high production of building materials poses a potential risk. Futures trading suggests waiting and seeing, and for basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are concerns in the fundamentals. The industry's average profit has been restored, and supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in hot metal and electric furnace start - up accumulates, which may impact demand. Current industry inventories are still high, and there is pressure to reduce inventories [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal spot prices are strong. Before the National Day, due to restocking, coking coal auction transactions are good, and prices mostly rise. Futures are oscillating. Although there are positive macro - news, the market shows a "sell - on - news" sign. From an industry perspective, the cost support is verified, but due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long positions before the National Day and use selling hedging when prices rise [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There are many rumors in the market during the iron ore conference week. Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profit rate has declined. Steel mills' restocking for the National Day is almost over. Before the National Day, factors such as restricted circulation of mineral resources and restocking support iron ore prices, but the upside depends on steel demand. The long - term view is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 23, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3212 yuan/ton (- 33 yuan, - 1.02%), HC2605 at 3351 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan, - 1.24%), etc.; for near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton (- 32 yuan, - 1.00%), HC2601 at 3340 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan, - 1.33%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On September 23, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan), the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 11 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan), etc. The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93 (- 0.01), etc. [1]. Spot Market - **Prices**: On September 23, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton (- 70 yuan), etc. [1]. - **Basis**: On September 23, the basis of HC main contract was 30 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan), the basis of RB main contract was 95 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), etc. [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish on px - mx [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [4] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [4] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have led to a short - term rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is under downward pressure [1][7][9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end rebound and weak downstream demand, showing a weakening trend [1][12][13]. - L has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with strong supply and demand fundamentally but insufficient upward drive [1][18]. - PP has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and slow - rising demand [1][23]. - PVC has good cost support and strong exports, but the supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [1][28]. - PX's supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosening, and it is expected to be weak [1][31][32]. - PTA's supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [2][35][36]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, but the low inventory provides some support [2][40][41]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is still large, but the demand has improved, and the downward space may be limited [2][43][45]. - Urea's supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [2][48][50]. - Natural gas in the US has seen an unexpected inventory build - up, leading to a weakening price, but the cooling weather provides some support [4]. - Asphalt is under pressure due to the weak cost - end and loose supply - demand situation [4]. - Glass has a weak reality and strong expectation, with supply under pressure and demand insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - Soda ash's supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.81%, Brent up 1.52%, and SC down 1.84% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances and unexpected inventory draw - down in the US provided short - term support, but the long - term supply is in surplus [7][8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the break - even point of shale oil new wells around $60 [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus, and the demand for downstream chemicals has weakened, with high warehouse receipts [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] yuan/ton [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with abundant supply and strengthening demand [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long, focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,200] yuan/ton [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and rising demand [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices, do not chase short at low absolute prices, focus on the range of [6,800 - 6,950] yuan/ton [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, exports were strong, but supply was stronger than demand, and inventory was accumulating [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation, focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] yuan/ton [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side changes were small, demand was expected to weaken, and the supply - demand tight - balance expectation was loosening [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [6,515 - 6,600] yuan/ton [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was underperforming, and the demand was weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short at high prices, focus on the range of [4,550 - 4,600] yuan/ton [36]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, demand was weak, but low inventory provided some support [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] yuan/ton [41]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was still large, but demand had improved, and cost support was stabilizing [43][44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract, focus on the range of [2,335 - 2,365] yuan/ton [45]. Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was relatively loose, demand was weak at home and strong abroad, and inventory was accumulating [48][49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to go long at low valuations, focus on the range of [1,650 - 1,670] yuan/ton [50]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: As of the week of September 12, the US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Unexpected inventory build - up led to price weakening, but cooling weather provided some support [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end was weak, supply - demand was loose, and the valuation was high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was under pressure, demand was insufficient, and inventory was expected to increase [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was expected to be loose, and demand was mostly for rigid needs [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].