1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak steel demand and expectations of a contraction in coal supply. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Supported by the high - level production of steel mills from September to October and the supply - side expectations of coal, raw material prices are resilient, which supports steel prices. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to repair upwards, and short - term long positions can be attempted. Pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. The upper pressure levels for rebar are around 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils around 3500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary of Related Contents Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in the South China region increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 36 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices changed, with steel billet prices increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The cost of steel production fluctuated, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profit of rebar in the South China region increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6 tons, and the production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2 tons. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6 tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0%, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 1.9%. However, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.0%, while that for hot - rolled coils increased by 6.8% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, after the end of major events, the pig iron output rebounded significantly last week, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. In terms of inventory, the port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume increased month - on - month, and the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The iron ore market is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to take a long position on the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices and engage in arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary of Related Contents Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, while the 01 contract basis of various varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.1% [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5%, and the global shipping volume increased by 29.6%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%, and the port clearance volume increased by 4.2%. The monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3%, the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the available days of inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [4]. 3. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. For coke, the second - round price cut by steel mills on the spot market has been implemented, but the third - round price cut is difficult. The supply side has resumed production rapidly, and the demand side is still supported by the rebound of iron - making water. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the downstream purchase intention has recovered. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to take a long position on the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1650 - 1800), take a long position on the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1070 - 1300), and engage in arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke, while paying attention to risks due to large market fluctuations [6]. Summary of Related Contents Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract of coke increasing by 2.8% and the 01 contract of coking coal increasing by 4.5%. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%. The iron - making water output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal was supported [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2%, and the coking coal inventory of different sectors changed, with some sectors de - stocking and some sectors slightly increasing inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side support during the peak season. The resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine under CATL will be a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to the market pricing in advance the potential downward pressure on prices due to future supply increases, while the demand side provides solid support. The resumption of production at the lithium mine has significant uncertainties, and before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 6,8000 - 76,000 yuan/ton until National Day [3][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the time - limit pressure on lithium mines in Jiangxi for report submission and the policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage. Negative factors include the risk of insufficient restocking during the peak season and the expected resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility Forecast**: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 39.0%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 65.9% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 73,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan (0.69%) and a weekly increase of 280 yuan (0.38%); the trading volume is 500,267 lots, with a daily increase of 17,477 lots (3.62%) and a weekly decrease of 91,408 lots (-15.45%); the open interest is 300,437 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,009 lots (-2.91%) and a weekly decrease of 50,903 lots (-14.49%) [9][10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, show different price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (2.25%) and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (-2.68%) [24]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.57%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.42%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.55%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.35%) [27]. - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,470 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan (0.28%); the average price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary materials is 114,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan (0%) [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., show different price differences. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 is - 237.5 yuan/ton [35]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 38,824 lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [38]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profits**: The report mentions the production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene and lithium mica) and the import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical details are not fully presented [42]. Lithium - Ion Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: - For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 60% of corresponding futures contracts at 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of put options (P - 68,000) [2]. - For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 20% of the futures main contract according to the procurement progress and use 20% of put options + call options [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales prices can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use 20% of put options + call options according to the production plan [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 20% of the futures main contract at 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of call options (C - 77,000) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is expected to fluctuate, with a long - term upward trend [3][5] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term, cotton prices may rebound from September 15th to October 15th and then decline due to increased supply and hedging pressure. The CF2601 futures price will range from 13,300 to 14,500. Long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise due to potential domestic supply - demand tightness, global supply - demand balance, and favorable macro - policies [5]. - Cotton yarn prices are expected to strengthen in the near term due to the approaching consumption season and the expected mild increase in cotton prices [7]. Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly View - Cotton - Short - and medium - term, new cotton purchase is likely to be stable. Prices may rebound from September 15th to October 15th and then decline. The CF2601 futures price will range from 13,300 to 14,500. Long - term, prices are expected to rise due to potential supply - demand tightness and favorable policies [5]. 02. Weekly View - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn markets fluctuated. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with low - count yarns performing better. Inner - region spinning mills are still in cash - flow losses. Prices are expected to strengthen in the near term [7]. 03. Market Review - Cotton market: Zhengzhou cotton was weak. Many cotton merchants have low inventories, and some old cotton remains unsold. Spinners purchase cotton based on rigid demand, waiting for new cotton purchase guidance. New cotton output is expected to increase, bringing long - term pressure. - Cotton yarn market: Trading was average, worse than previous years. Low - count yarns performed better. Inner - region spinning mills are in cash - flow losses and lack confidence [11]. 04. International Macroeconomics - The US released a series of economic data, including manufacturing PMI, employment, trade, and inflation data. The eurozone also released data on unemployment, inflation, and GDP [12]. 05. Domestic Macroeconomics - China released data on foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2, social financing, and new RMB loans [14]. 06. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, global cotton supply, consumption, and trade volume have different adjustments, and the ending inventory has decreased [15]. 07. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased, total demand increased, and ending inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased, total demand was stable, and ending inventory decreased [20]. 08. US Cotton Exports - As of September 4, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 882,000 tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, with a shipment rate of 18.11%. China had signed 16,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 2.30% [23]. 09. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - As of July 31, industrial and commercial inventories totaled 308.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 497,000 tons. As of August 15, they totaled 274.44 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from July [26]. 10. July Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports - In July 2025, China's cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. Cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [29]. 11. August Cotton Yarn Production and Sales - In August, the cotton yarn market improved. Production was 424,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. The cumulative production from January to August was 3.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [33]. 12. US Cotton Growth - As of September 7, the boll - setting rate was 97%, the boll - opening rate was 40%, the harvesting rate was 8%, and the good - quality rate was 54%. Growth was accelerating, and the expected output was higher than the USDA forecast [36]. 13. US Cotton Weather - As of September 9, the drought index in the US cotton - growing area was rising but still lower than the five - year average. Cotton growth was accelerating [39]. 14. Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 8, the boll - opening rate in Xinjiang was 47.5%. Northern Xinjiang will start machine - harvesting around September 20, and southern Xinjiang's hand - picked cotton is being harvested [41]. 15. Textile Industry Inventory - In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.12% and a year - on - year increase of 0.49% [42]. 16. Domestic Demand - In July 2025, social consumer goods retail sales were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Clothing and textile retail sales were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [47]. 17. External Demand - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [50]. 18. US Clothing Retail Sales in June 2025 - In June 2025, US clothing and accessory retail sales were 26.342 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% [53]. 19. US Cotton Product Imports in June - In June 2025, US cotton product imports were 1.357 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47%. Textile and clothing imports were 8.564 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.45% [57]. 20. Warehouse Receipts - As of September 12, the number of warehouse receipts was 5,017, a decrease of 142 from last week [60]. 21. Non - Commercial Positions - As of September 9, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures decreased [63]. 22. Spinning Mill Load - As of September 12, the load index of pure cotton spinning mills was 64.5, unchanged from last week [66]. 23. Weaving Mill Load - As of September 12, the load index of all - cotton grey fabric mills increased, and the yarn load continued to recover [70]. 24. Industry Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton, cotton yarn, and all - cotton grey fabric inventories decreased, indicating market improvement [74]. 25. Industry Chain Profit - The profit of cotton yarn improved slightly. Inner - region spinning mills' C32S cash - flow loss was about 300 yuan/ton [80]. 26. Basis - The basis remained high. The basis of pre - sold new cotton was 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [81]. 27. Domestic - Foreign Cotton Price Spread - Currently, domestic cotton is stronger than foreign cotton. The situation may change in November - December [84]. 28. Inter - Month Spread - The 11 - 1 month spread was - 150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short 11 - month and long 1 - month contracts [89].

Market Overview - On August 20, 2025, domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with ethylene glycol (EG), caustic soda, and methanol rising over 1% [1] - Lithium carbonate hit the limit down with an 8% decline, while soda ash fell over 5%, glass dropped over 4%, and industrial silicon, coking coal, coking, and manganese silicon all decreased by more than 2% [1] Contract Performance - Lithium carbonate (contract 2511 M) saw a price of 80,980 with a drop of 8% [2] - Glass (contract 2601 M) was priced at 1,162, down 4.36% [2] - Industrial silicon (contract 2511 M) was at 8,390, down 2.89% [2] - Caustic soda (contract 2601 in) increased by 1.80% to 2,655 [2] - Ethylene glycol (contract 2601 M) rose by 1.61% to 4,477 [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices was primarily due to supply-side constraints, with Yichun City requiring updates on resource reserve reports for eight lithium resource mining rights by the end of September [1] - A mining area halted production due to an expired mining license, raising market expectations of supply tightening [1] - The recent decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to the announcement from Jiangte Electric that the previously halted Yichun Silver Lithium will resume production soon, alleviating supply reduction expectations [1] - The supply side faces uncertainties due to potential further production cuts from other mines and expectations of increased output from lithium salt plants under high prices [3] - Demand from downstream sectors showed significant improvement in August, but the sales of new energy passenger vehicles experienced a substantial month-on-month decline [3] Price Volatility - The main contract price for lithium carbonate remains high with wide fluctuations, forming a new gap downward [3] - Market sentiment is volatile with frequent news, and high price volatility expectations continue, suggesting cautious positions for investors [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output and mixed domestic downstream demand factors such as stable growth in the power industry, positive growth in automobile production and sales, slowing growth in home appliance output, and weak real - estate. Attention should be paid to factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The concentrate processing fees have been rising, and the domestic supply of concentrates has improved significantly this year with potential recovery in smelting supply. Domestic downstream demand shows positive growth in automobile production and sales and stable growth in infrastructure, but slowing growth in home appliance output and weak real - estate. Attention should be paid to factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Weekend night - session copper prices rose slightly. The current low concentrate processing fees are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real - estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 170 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,760 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 93.75 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 155,850 tons, and the daily change was - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed lower. The concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real - estate is weak. This year, the concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,595 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,797 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 5.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 77,450 tons, and the daily change was - 1,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,603 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 1.79 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 479,675 tons, and the daily change was 1,050 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,870 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,195 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 207.88 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 211,140 tons, and the daily change was 42 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,981 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.24 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 261,675 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 269,660 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 3,480 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,610 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 63.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,830 tons, and the daily change was 50 tons [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in alumina futures prices was driven by news from Shanxi Province regarding adjustments in mining rights, but the market has since cooled down, leading to a decline in prices as speculative sentiment wanes [1][2]. Supply Side - Shanxi's decision aims to enhance the protection of strategic mineral resources, including bauxite, by centralizing mining rights management [1]. - China's bauxite supply has been decreasing annually due to reduced mineral resources and stricter mining controls, leading to increased imports by local alumina companies to maintain production [1][2]. - Recent elections in Guinea have led to a relaxation of aluminum ore export policies, which is expected to increase overseas ore supply [2]. - Domestic alumina production capacity is growing, but there is a regional imbalance in output, with higher production in the north compared to the south [2][3]. - As of August 7, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.4 million tons, resulting in an operating rate of 82.23% [2]. Demand Side - The demand for alumina is expected to weaken as the replenishment of raw materials and inventory reduction slows down, coupled with limited growth in demand for casting aluminum alloys [2][3]. - Inventory levels for alumina are rising, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina delivery warehouse inventory increasing from under 5,000 tons to around 40,000 tons recently [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the fundamentals for alumina are under pressure, leading to weak price performance [3]. - The increase in registered warehouse receipts for alumina in August may alleviate previous tightness in the market, but bearish sentiment persists due to expectations of weak future prices [3][4]. - Despite the bearish outlook, factors such as the Shanxi mining rights news and stable overseas ore prices may limit the downside for alumina futures in the short term [3][4]. - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, fluctuating around cost levels, influenced by seasonal demand and potential supply adjustments [4].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On August 14, A-share market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.46% to 3666.44, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87% to 11451.43, and ChiNext Index falling 1.08% to 2469.66. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days, reaching 2279.2 billion, up 128.3 billion from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4173.31, down 3.27 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 14, the weighted coke index closed at 1694.3, down 74.8; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1196.1 yuan, down 80.7 [2][3]. - The exchange tightened position limits on coking coal futures from August 15. The 6th round of coke price increase was implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, coking coal imports were 52.8223 million tons, down 7.36% year - on - year, with June imports at 9.1084 million tons, up 23.31% month - on - month but down 15.05% year - on - year. China's coke exports from January to June were 350,600 tons, down 28% year - on - year, with June exports at 51,000 tons, down 25% month - on - month and 41% year - on - year [4]. - Currently, the valuation is moderately high. For coke, port spot prices were stable, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1480 yuan/ton. Steel mills' high blast furnace operation maintained coke demand, but some traders were cautious after the futures price decline. For coking coal, the price of fat coal in Linfen, Shanxi, dropped 58 yuan to 1247 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with prices rising at Ganqimaodu Port, but trading volume was average [5]. Soybean Meal - On August 14, CBOT soybeans fell from a six - week high due to concerns about export demand. US new - crop soybean net sales were 1.133 million tons as of August 7, higher than expected, while old - crop net sales were - 377,600 tons, down 181% from the previous week. The domestic M2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Low Q4 soybean purchases in China raised concerns about supply shortages, and higher import costs supported prices. However, abundant imports, high refinery operation, and high inventory limited the upward space. Future focus is on weather and imports [5][6]. Live Hogs - On August 14, the live hog futures price was weak, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13,900 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. It's the off - season for pork consumption, with weak demand and low orders from major pig enterprises. Group farms' August出栏 is expected to increase, and overall supply will be abundant in the second half of the year. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and future focus is on policy,出栏 rhythm, and weight changes [6]. Palm Oil - On August 14, palm oil's upward momentum weakened, with the new P2601 contract closing at 9368 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to rise 60% to a record high, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, the lowest since 2019/20 [7]. Shanghai Copper - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the highest in three years, reducing expectations of a September interest rate cut. The Shanghai copper price fell below 79,000 yuan. It may decline to 78,500 yuan. Import supplies may increase, pressuring the premium, but tight domestic supplies near delivery will support the spot price [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,110 yuan/ton. On August 15, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 390 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 84 lots [8]. Iron Ore - On August 14, the iron ore 2601 contract fell 2.94% to 775 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals decreased, but iron ore demand remained strong due to high steel mill profitability. The price will likely fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - On August 14, the asphalt 2510 contract fell 0.54% to 3472 yuan. Capacity utilization increased, but shipments declined. Demand is weak but expected to recover. Low inventory supports the price, and it will likely move sideways in the short term [8]. Logs - On August 14, the 2509 log contract opened at 812.5, closed at 809.5, with an increase of 623 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to spot prices, imports, inventory, and market sentiment [8][9]. Steel - On August 14, rb2510 closed at 3189 yuan/ton, and hc2510 at 3432 yuan/ton. After the hype of production cuts and price increases faded, coking coal futures led black futures down. High - temperature and rainy weather weakened demand, and steel prices may decline in the short term [9]. Alumina - On August 14, the ao2601 contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. With an expected supply surplus, the market will have more available spot. Price competition between upstream and downstream will intensify, and aluminum plants will focus on inventory control [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 14, the al2509 contract closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. Expectations of Fed rate cuts pushed up the price, but low downstream demand and inventory accumulation limited the upside. After the positive sentiment fades, the price may decline. In the short term, it will likely move sideways with a downward bias [10].

Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract reported at 772.5 yuan/ton, a drop of 3.26% [1] - On August 13, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 842,000 tons, a decrease of 31.71% compared to the previous period; forward spot transactions were 335,000 tons [2] - As of August 13, the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.75%, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, indicating a stable demand for iron ore due to high production activity in the steel industry [2] Group 2 - On August 13, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 3,600 iron ore futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 400 receipts from the previous trading day [3] - According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures, global shipping volumes have declined again, with noticeable decreases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while non-mainstream regions have stabilized; overall arrival volumes have increased [4] - The demand side shows a slight decline in iron water, with average daily iron water for 247 samples decreasing by 0.49 million tons to 2.4032 million tons; the average iron water for August is approximately 2.41 million tons [4] - Inventory levels have increased, with 45 port inventories rising by 620,000 tons, and total inventory showing a slight increase; rebar inventory has slightly risen, while hot-rolled coil inventory has also increased [4] - According to Zhongjin Wealth Futures, iron ore prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high steel mill profits and stable iron water demand, although potential pressure may arise if terminal demand for steel does not meet expectations during peak season [4]

Core Viewpoint - The preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations against imported canola seeds from Canada will impose a deposit rate of 75.8% on all Canadian companies starting from August 14, 2025, which is expected to significantly tighten canola supply and increase prices in downstream products like canola oil and meal [1][2]. Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations against Canadian canola seeds, imposing a deposit rate of 75.8% on imports [1]. - As of March 2025, China has already imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, which, combined with the anti-dumping ruling, may lead to a substantial reduction in canola supply [1]. - Following the announcement, the canola futures market experienced a surge, with significant increases in canola oil and meal futures prices [1]. Group 2 - Domestic canola prices are expected to trend strongly due to tightening import expectations, with recent analysis indicating that the near-term warehouse issues for canola meal have eased, leading to accelerated inventory depletion in the futures market [2]. - The 75.8% deposit rate translates to a direct increase in import costs, which will have a considerable impact on the overall supply of canola products in the future [2]. - The anti-dumping tariffs are likely to create upward price pressure on domestic canola products in the short term [2].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance among major contracts, with lithium carbonate hitting the daily limit up with an increase of 8% [1] - Industrial silicon rose nearly 4%, while red dates increased over 3% and synthetic rubber saw an increase of over 2% [1] - On the downside, eggs fell nearly 2%, and both fuel and SC crude oil dropped over 1%, along with urea [1]