1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, natural rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: The potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the increasing probability of an interest rate cut in December have driven up oil prices, but there are still uncertainties, so short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The spot supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, but the arrival volume in December may tighten. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand, and the absolute prices of FU and LU are temporarily weak [2] - **Asphalt**: The current spot market still exerts pressure on the futures market. The social inventory is about 15% higher than the same period in previous years, and the downstream demand continues to weaken. The market is expected to be in a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [2] - **Polyester**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The PX fundamentals have strong expectations but weak reality, and the near - month price is under pressure. The PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and the price will follow the raw material price. The ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2][4] - **Natural Rubber**: The supply and demand are both weak. After the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the 01 contract increases. The futures price is expected to be supported [4] - **Methanol**: Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a significant decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. The port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving the methanol price to rebound, but there is an upper limit, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken. The market will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains high, and the domestic demand slows down. The fundamental driving force is weak, but the price may bottom - out and fluctuate, and short - term attention can be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI January contract rose $0.78 to $58.84 per barrel, a 1.34% increase; Brent January contract rose $0.81 to $63.37 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; SC2601 closed at 449.4 yuan per barrel, up 4.2 yuan per barrel, a 0.94% increase. The US proposed a 28 - point new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. From January to October 2025, Kazakhstan's crude oil and condensate production increased by 14.3% year - on - year to 83.614 million tons [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.67% to 2512 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2601, fell 2.44% to 3041 yuan per ton. Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the Western market in November are expected to be 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 million tons in October [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, rose 0.82% to 3060 yuan per ton. The current spot market still pressures the futures market, and the refineries are still releasing a large number of low - price contracts. The social inventory is about 15% higher than the same period in previous years [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4680 yuan per ton on Monday, up 0.3%; EG2601 closed at 3884 yuan per ton, up 2%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average production and sales rate of 40% - 50%. The MEG port inventory in the East China main port area on November 24 was about 732,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2] - **Natural Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber, RU2601, rose 80 yuan per ton to 15,320 yuan per ton; the main contract of NR fell 10 yuan per ton to 12,275 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 10 yuan per ton to 10,395 yuan per ton. From November 16 to 21, the natural rubber inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 0.48 million tons to 74,100 tons, a 6.93% increase [4] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2053 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1987.5 yuan per ton. The domestic device operation is stable, and the supply has returned to a high level. Iranian devices have stopped due to gas restrictions, and there are still plans to stop in the future [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6300 - 6500 yuan per ton. The supply will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the price in the East China PVC market was adjusted strongly, and the price in the North China market was raised. The supply remains high, and the domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - It shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on November 24 and 21, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week. As of the week of November 21, US crude oil inventory is expected to increase by about 650,000 barrels. Fed Governor Waller said that the US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It includes the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][31][32][33][35][37][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][42][43][44][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spread charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][61][62][63][65][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It includes the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66][67] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - It introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [71][72][73][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 12, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract dropped 0.21% to 86,580 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 81,100 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 50 yuan/ton to 75,970 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 188 tons to 28,287 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased 454 tons to 21,534 tons. In November, the expected lithium carbonate production is forecast to decline 0.2% to 92,080 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in November increased 1% to 85,000 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased 4% to 410,000 tons. The weekly inventory decreased 3,406 tons to 123,953 tons [3]. - Demand drives prices and supports them from below. Currently, there are significant differences between bulls and bears in the futures market, and market sentiment has weakened. Short - term prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, positions, actual project restart times, and potential off - seasons in the power sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed different changes on November 12, 2025. For example, the closing price of the main futures contract increased 40 yuan/ton to 86,580 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,300 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium - phosphorus - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][9]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of lithium metal, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][13]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][20]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][36]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from March to November 2025 [37][38][39]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41][42]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - month contract of the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures rebounded after quickly breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark, pricing in bullish factors such as increased spot buyers, the judgment of short - term negative and long - term positive impacts of corn quality issues in North China, and the release of downward momentum after the futures price approached the cost line [2]. - The structure of the contracts shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to nearly 100 yuan/ton. The pricing of the forward contracts reflects the market's relatively optimistic sentiment towards the corn market next year, while the near - month contracts are still under pressure from the new grain listing. Although there is a short - term rebound, the upward space may be limited [2]. - The spot market is weaker than the futures market, with prices mostly falling. The listing of new grain continues to dominate the market, and the pressure on the spot market needs time to digest. Attention should be paid to the end of the month when the new grain harvest nears its end, which may be an important node for spot prices [2]. - The CBOT corn futures price has been oscillating narrowly after breaking through support, and the delay in report releases due to the government shutdown has left the market lacking guidance [2]. Summary by Content Market Conditions - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared with October 14, corn futures prices generally rose. Corn 11 rose by 8 yuan to 2,101 yuan, with a 0.38% increase; Corn 01 rose by 16 yuan to 2,127 yuan, with a 0.76% increase; Corn 03 rose by 17 yuan to 2,157 yuan, with a 0.79% increase; Corn 05 rose by 16 yuan to 2,218 yuan, with a 0.73% increase; Corn 07 rose by 14 yuan to 2,232 yuan, with a 0.63% increase; Corn 09 remained unchanged at 2,247 yuan. Corn starch futures prices also mostly rose. Corn starch 11 rose by 16 yuan to 2,401 yuan, with a 0.67% increase; Corn starch 01 rose by 17 yuan to 2,418 yuan, with a 0.71% increase; Corn starch 03 rose by 13 yuan to 2,435 yuan, with a 0.54% increase; Corn starch 05 rose by 12 yuan to 2,529 yuan, with a 0.48% increase; Corn starch 07 rose by 12 yuan to 2,539 yuan, with a 0.47% increase; Corn starch 09 rose by 1 yuan to 2,571 yuan, with a 0.04% increase [3][6]. - **Spot Prices**: Among corn spot prices, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2,130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price at Shekou Port was 2,310 yuan, unchanged; the price in Harbin was 2,000 yuan, down 20 yuan. Among corn starch spot prices, the price in Shandong was 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang was 2,460 yuan, unchanged [3]. - **Base Difference**: The Jinzhou Port main - continuous base difference of corn was 29 yuan, down 18 yuan; the Shandong main - continuous base difference of corn starch was 339 yuan, down 16 yuan [3]. - **US Corn Market**: The CBOT corn main - continuous contract was at 417.25 cents, up 4 cents, with a 0.97% increase. The COBT soybean main - continuous contract was at 1,007 cents, up 0.75 cents, with a 0.07% increase. The CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was at 498.75 cents, down 1.5 cents, with a - 0.3% decrease. The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2,090.31 yuan, up 8.74 yuan, with a 0.42% increase, and the import profit was 219.69 yuan. The duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 1,941.98 yuan, up 8.6 yuan, with a 0.44% increase, and the import profit was 368.02 yuan [29]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The types of spot buyers have increased, which eases market pressure; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, imports remain at a low level, and the market is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the feed demand for corn in the medium term; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - seeking or at the bottom; the number of trucks arriving in Shandong remains high, and the purchase price mostly falls; North China will experience another rainfall process, putting continued pressure on the spot market [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the apple futures market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the monthly operating center of the main contract ap2601 shifting slightly upward. The factors influencing the apple market in September, including spot price fluctuations, weather changes in production areas, and the relative impact of other fruits, changed smoothly without unexpected changes, resulting in a relatively stable impact on prices. The market is optimistic about the high opening price of new - season late Fuji apples [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The main apple futures contract ap2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with its monthly operating center moving slightly upward. The three factors affecting the apple market in September changed smoothly and had a relatively gentle impact on prices [3]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - The total open interest of apple futures was 111,461 lots, the trading volume was 1,883,035 lots, and the turnover was 156.5155 billion yuan. The specific contract data is shown in the apple futures monthly market table [4][5]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In September, the apple futures basis was negative overall, meaning the spot price was lower than the futures price [7]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 0 [8]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Influencing Factor Analysis - Substitutes such as grapes and pomegranates had a partial impact. The old - stock Fuji apples in inventory were not fully cleared, and the remaining goods did not move quickly. The market sales were uneven. Some merchants stocked up as needed approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival. The cost of high - quality new fruits remained high. The export volume increased in August with the new - season fruits hitting the market. The prices of mid - and late - maturing varieties in the production areas were relatively stable, and the market was optimistic about the high opening price of new - season late Fuji [8][9][10]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - In September, the technical aspect of apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The short - term moving averages provided some support for the price, and the price fluctuated within a relatively stable range. The moving averages formed a long - position combination, and the long - position power on the disk was slightly dominant [11]. 4. Market Outlook - On the supply side, the flowering period in the western production areas was affected by adverse weather, resulting in small single fruits, and the high - temperature and drought conditions hindered fruit coloring, with a预计 low excellent - fruit rate. The remaining amount of apples in cold storage nationwide is at the lowest level in the past five years. The new - season apples in the western region are generally uneven in size, and the subsequent weather after bag removal needs attention. On the demand side, the market was slightly boosted by the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, but the overall effect was limited. The market is still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits, and the arrival volume of vehicles remains low. In the short term, as the new - season apples are about to be launched in large quantities, the price of the ap2601 contract on the disk may face upward pressure and will likely show a high - level volatile trend [13].

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract increasing by 1.27% to 3439.00 yuan/ton as of September 25 [1] Industry Summary - As of the week ending September 24, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, an increase of 5.7% week-on-week. The weekly asphalt production reached 701,000 tons, up 15.5% from the previous week [2] - The sample shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons for the week ending September 23, reflecting a 9.0% increase week-on-week [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the warehouse receipts for petroleum asphalt futures were 18,940 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the factory warehouse receipts decreased by 2,140 tons to 37,040 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guosen Futures noted that the daily operating load of asphalt in China was 45.03% as of September 24, a decrease of 3.80% from the previous Wednesday. The demand side shows weak characteristics, with many road construction projects experiencing delays, leading to a slow consumption pace of asphalt. Overall demand remains weak, with downstream users and traders adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, primarily purchasing as needed. Recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are influencing asphalt futures prices [3] - Jianxin Futures indicated that expectations of a shift to residual oil production by Haishi Chemical and some refineries' plans to reduce output may cut supply. However, the asphalt production plans of Jiangsu Xinhai Chemical and Shandong Shengxing Chemical are being implemented, alongside stable operations at Jin Cheng Chemical and Dongming Chemical. This is expected to lead to a continued increase in the operating load of asphalt facilities. Demand remains stable, with northern and central markets benefiting from favorable weather and project acceleration, while southern regions are affected by typhoon weather [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Although concentrate supply is tight and smelting profits are under pressure, smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, and smelting profits have turned positive. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output has high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 20,685 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 0.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with no daily change [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 120,730 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 990 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,340 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 173.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,900 tons with an increase of 456 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 17,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 42.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 221,675 tons with an increase of 1,375 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 269,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,000 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,270 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 98.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,580 tons with an increase of 75 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - New - season supply pressure leads to a decline in futures prices, and many deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have lowered the purchase price of new grain; the overall demand for corn is stable, and the import pressure is limited; the supply - demand structure is turning loose, and the main task in the fourth quarter is to digest the pressure of new grain [1] - There are both positive and negative factors in the corn market. Positive factors include a slight rebound in spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai, low - volume imports in August, and successful corn procurement by the Chengdu branch of Sinograin. Negative factors are the new - season harvest causing supply pressure and weakened market sentiment due to price cuts by deep - processing enterprises [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - From September 19 to September 22, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, corn 11 dropped from 2168 to 2158 (-0.46%), and corn starch 11 dropped from 2463 to 2447 (-0.65%). The wheat average price rose slightly by 0.04% [2] Positive Factors - Corn spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai have slightly rebounded [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, with less substitution pressure [3] - On the 22nd, the Chengdu branch of Sinograin conducted a corn bidding procurement of 4100 tons, all of which were successfully transacted, and there were no sales sessions [3] Negative Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus exerts pressure on prices [3] - Many deep - processing enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new grain, further weakening market sentiment [3] Spot Prices and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin) remained unchanged on the day, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract increased by 21. Corn starch spot prices in different regions (such as Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) also remained unchanged, and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract increased by 42 [11] US Corn Prices and Import Profits - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract dropped by 0.59% to 421.75. The import profit of US Gulf is 306.56 yuan/ton, and that of US West is 448.76 yuan/ton [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On September 17, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed performances with energy and chemicals performing stronger [2][10][13] - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is a risk that the subsequent demand for poly - silicon will continue to weaken [17][24][33] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 17, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities showed mixed performances, with energy and chemicals performing stronger. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were LSFO, crude oil, and fuel oil, and the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), rapeseed meal, and poly - silicon. Among financial futures, IC and IM rose 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, and TL climbed 0.3% [10][11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On September 17, it increased by 1.2% to 499.3 yuan/barrel. API data showed U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories declined last week, while diesel inventories continued to build up. The Russia - Ukraine conflict still supports oil prices. However, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil inventories will face dual pressure later [17][18] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Copper**: On September 17, it decreased by 0.7% to 80560 yuan/ton. Supply constraints persist, and recent supply disruptions have increased. With the Fed's expected rate cut in September, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Macroeconomically, loose liquidity is favorable for copper prices. Supply - side issues include disruptions in copper mine supply and increased costs of scrap copper recycling. Demand - side shows that the peak season for end - user demand has arrived, but copper inventory destocking is not obvious [24][25][26][27] - **Poly - Silicon**: On September 17, it decreased by 2.1% to 53490 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy has boosted prices recently, but if policy expectations fade, prices may reverse. Supply - side: Southwest China's operating capacity has increased with the wet season. Demand - side: 1 - 5 months' high growth in photovoltaic installations has exhausted the second - half demand, and subsequent demand may continue to weaken [31][32][33] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Trump extended the TikTok ban grace - period for the fourth time, pushing the deadline to December 16. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [36] 2.2 Industry News - Hong Kong will collaborate with GBA exchanges to develop new businesses such as commodity trading and carbon trading. It will also discuss launching offshore treasury bond futures, strengthen top - level design for commodities policies, and promote the development of its commodity trading ecosystem [37][38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the intersection of multiple factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience a wide - range and weakening fluctuation in the short term as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.84% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed signals: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,974 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 71.13 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 150,950 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,675 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.76% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,943 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 24.36 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 48,975 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,175 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,690 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 1.74 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 483,775 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,790 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 870 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,445 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 189.18 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 226,434 tons, with a daily increase of 1,950 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 125 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,005 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 46.43 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 227,850 tons, with a daily increase of 2,225 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 272,540 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,320 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,390 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 167.02 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,645 tons, with no daily change [2]

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak steel demand and expectations of a contraction in coal supply. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Supported by the high - level production of steel mills from September to October and the supply - side expectations of coal, raw material prices are resilient, which supports steel prices. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to repair upwards, and short - term long positions can be attempted. Pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. The upper pressure levels for rebar are around 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils around 3500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary of Related Contents Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in the South China region increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 36 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices changed, with steel billet prices increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The cost of steel production fluctuated, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profit of rebar in the South China region increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6 tons, and the production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2 tons. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6 tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0%, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 1.9%. However, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.0%, while that for hot - rolled coils increased by 6.8% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, after the end of major events, the pig iron output rebounded significantly last week, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. In terms of inventory, the port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume increased month - on - month, and the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The iron ore market is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to take a long position on the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices and engage in arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary of Related Contents Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, while the 01 contract basis of various varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.1% [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5%, and the global shipping volume increased by 29.6%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%, and the port clearance volume increased by 4.2%. The monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3%, the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the available days of inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [4]. 3. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. For coke, the second - round price cut by steel mills on the spot market has been implemented, but the third - round price cut is difficult. The supply side has resumed production rapidly, and the demand side is still supported by the rebound of iron - making water. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the downstream purchase intention has recovered. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to take a long position on the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1650 - 1800), take a long position on the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1070 - 1300), and engage in arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke, while paying attention to risks due to large market fluctuations [6]. Summary of Related Contents Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract of coke increasing by 2.8% and the 01 contract of coking coal increasing by 4.5%. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%. The iron - making water output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal was supported [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2%, and the coking coal inventory of different sectors changed, with some sectors de - stocking and some sectors slightly increasing inventory [6].