Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold and copper prices are experiencing fluctuations upward, while oil prices are on the rise [1] - The gold price has recently declined due to a rebound in June CPI data, a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and a strengthening dollar index [12] - The prices of major commodities such as rebar and thermal coal continue to rise, while the price of cement is on a downward trend [11] Group 2: Consumer Market Analysis - New home sales are experiencing an expanded decline, while the sales of used cars are slightly recovering, and the average price of home appliances has mostly decreased year-on-year [3] - Service consumption shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in foot traffic in commercial areas, but a decline in movie box office revenues [4] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are declining, with wholesale sales increasing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Insights - Export activities are showing signs of weakness, with a decrease in the growth rate of departing ships' cargo weight and a decline in export container freight rates [6] - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has increased, while U.S. retailers and wholesalers are experiencing a year-on-year decline in inventory levels [7][6] Group 4: Production Trends - The production of rebar is decreasing, and inventory levels are continuing to drop, leading to a rise in prices due to market sentiment and cost support [9] - High temperatures are increasing daily coal consumption at power plants, which is positively impacting market sentiment and leading to a rise in coal prices [10] Group 5: Price Movements - The article notes that the prices of various commodities have shown a decline recently, with specific mention of the continuous rise in domestic pork wholesale prices and the recovery of glass prices [11] - The article highlights the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly the stability of copper and oil prices amidst geopolitical influences [12]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a blast furnace operating rate year-on-year at 0.7% [2][5][8] - Chemical production shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the national grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a migration scale index down by 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8%, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to 3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes up by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8% respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9% respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Consumption - Consumer goods consumption remains stable, with automotive sales showing a decline compared to the previous week, and a year-on-year growth rate also decreasing[6] - Service consumption is affected by weather conditions, with travel, cinema, and amusement park attendance showing weak performance[6] - Food and beverage prices have rebounded, but the year-on-year decline in agricultural product prices is still expanding[6] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a total of 2.4 trillion yuan issued by July 12, 2025, and 228.29 billion yuan in the first two weeks of July[16] - New housing sales in 30 cities have seen a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop narrowing from 22.2% to 20.0%[16] - The land market is cooling, with land transaction area decreasing and premium rates dropping to 4.88%[16] Trade - Import growth from South Korea to China has slowed to 2.2%, while Vietnam's export growth remains strong at 19.3%[22] - Port operations are slowing down, with a decline in the number of ships and cargo throughput at major ports[22] - Export freight rates have decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous week[22] Production - Overall production is stable, with electricity consumption rising due to high temperatures, and traditional industries like steel and petrochemicals performing steadily[28] - The photovoltaic sector shows marginal recovery, while the automotive industry also experiences slight improvements[28] Inventory - Construction materials are undergoing destocking, with coal inventories at ports decreasing and remaining at average levels for the same period[41] - The PTA industry chain shows a divergence in inventory trends, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking continuing[41] Prices - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing marginal increases, with transportation and communication being major contributors to price rises[44] - Prices of pork and vegetables have rebounded, while logistics costs continue to decline[44] Liquidity - The US dollar index has risen by 89 basis points, influenced by strong US employment data, with the dollar to yuan exchange rate increasing from 7.165 to 7.171[46] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 2 and 5 basis points respectively[46]

Economic Indicators - As of June 2025, PPI has experienced 33 consecutive months of year-on-year negative growth, while CPI has remained below 1% for 28 months[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for 8 consecutive quarters, with an estimated -1% for Q2 2025[3] - For Q3 and Q4 2025, CPI is projected to grow at -0.1% and 0%, while PPI is expected to decline by -2.5% and -2.1% respectively[3] GDP Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is likely to be around 5.3-5.4%, requiring a second-half growth of 4.6-4.7% to meet the annual target[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate needs to stabilize above 4% for the year[3] CPI Insights - Core CPI has shown an upward trend, reaching 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, the highest since May 2024[5] - Service retail sales growth from January to May 2025 was 5.2%, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively[5] - The contribution of service CPI to overall CPI growth was only 0.17 percentage points, much lower than the previous year's 0.9%[5] Food and Energy Price Trends - Food prices, particularly pork, are expected to face high base pressure in Q3, with a projected negative growth in pork prices due to supply chain factors[24][26] - Oil prices are anticipated to decline further, with Brent crude averaging around $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, leading to a significant drag on CPI growth[35][36] Risks and Uncertainties - Global economic recovery may fall short of expectations, impacting domestic price levels and potentially leading to further declines in export and commodity prices[4] - The effectiveness of industrial policy adjustments and "anti-involution" measures remains uncertain, which could prolong price pressures in certain sectors[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy, highlighting the impact of external factors such as the US-China trade war and domestic policy measures that have contributed to economic stability and growth. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is expected to be around 5.3%, with a need for only 4.7% growth in the second half to meet the annual target [1] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth of 5.4%, while the second quarter is projected to be around 5.2% [2] - The overall economic performance is stable, with industrial value-added growth at 6.5% in the first quarter and service sector growth at 5.8% [5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export growth rate fluctuated due to the US-China tariff war, peaking at 12.3% in March before declining to 4.8% in May [2] - The share of exports to the US has decreased to the lowest level on record, impacting overall export performance [2] - The article anticipates a 2.0% growth in exports for the year, with various scenarios predicting outcomes ranging from 0% to 3.5% [10][11] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Policy Response - Domestic demand is gradually stabilizing due to proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing [3] - Social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with government bonds seeing a significant increase of 20.9% [3] - Retail sales growth reached 6.4% in May, driven by consumption policies such as the "old-for-new" program [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% in the first five months, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.6% [13] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 7.8% for the year, while real estate investment is projected to decline by 10.0% [23][16] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in the second half, supported by ample funding and ongoing major projects [18][19] Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is expected to grow by 4.5% for the year, with retail sales showing a recovery trend [27] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has significantly boosted consumption in various sectors [28] - However, consumer confidence remains low, and spending may decline in the second half due to reduced subsidy support and economic uncertainties [29] Group 6: Price Trends - CPI is projected to remain around 0% for the year, with a slight recovery expected in the second half [31][32] - PPI is anticipated to decline by 2.3% for the year, reflecting ongoing pressures from oversupply and weak demand [34][35] Group 7: Policy Outlook - The article suggests that macroeconomic policies will focus on stabilizing growth without significant new stimulus, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [37][38] - Fiscal policies will prioritize the effective use of existing funds to support consumption and investment [40][41] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, with a focus on structural support rather than aggressive easing [42][43]

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物价低位，经济分化 [Table_Authors] 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 25 期） 本报告导读：经济生产和需求两端均呈结构性分化，物价整体下行 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.29 2025-06-30 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 上周经济数据分化，有待政策发力。消费方面，商品消费边际改善， 汽车批发零售回升，纺服需求修复，暑期人口流动和游乐消费旺盛， 但高端餐饮酒水受政策影响，茅台价格回落，电影、旅游消费平淡。 投资方面，专项债发行提速，新房销售季末冲量但不及往年，二手 房成交下滑，基建和房建进度边际改善。进出口方面，运力恢复但 外需平淡，BDI 指数下跌。生产方面，除高温下生活用电增加带动耗 煤回升，其余行业大多承压，钢铁、石化行业表现一般，新兴行业 中光伏表现较佳。库存方面，中下游行业以补库为主。物价方面， CPI 和 PPI 整体下跌，原油、水泥等品类仍在降价，不过钢铁、铜铝、 碳酸锂等金属品类有所涨价。流动性方面，美元指数降至 98 以下， 月末央行净投放呵护 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Schmied indicated that business contacts expect tariffs to increase prices and negatively impact economic activity [1] Group 1 - Business contacts anticipate that tariffs will lead to higher prices [1] - There is a consensus that the economic activity will be dragged down due to the impact of tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that tariffs could lead to increased prices and exert pressure on the economy [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are likely to contribute to inflationary pressures within the economy [1] - The economic impact of tariffs may result in broader financial strain on consumers and businesses [1] - Powell's comments suggest a cautious approach to trade policies and their implications for economic stability [1]