Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (three stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend with good investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is generally weak, with prices of most products under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and other factors [2][3][5] - Different sub - industries have their own supply - demand characteristics, and price trends are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, seasonal demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed down. Tight supply - demand and pre - stocking by downstream due to upcoming events support price hikes, but limited by downstream profit compression [2] - Polyolefin futures had narrow - range fluctuations. Polyethylene supply pressure eased with increased maintenance, while polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak [2] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to fall. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, and the BZ - NAP spread narrowed. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [3] - Styrene futures closed down. With weak raw material support and sufficient supply, there is still room for price decline without effective trading volume growth [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Terminal demand is rising, but the actual improvement is limited, and they are expected to continue range - bound [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded to the top of the range, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, and it is expected to maintain range - bound [5] - Short fiber supply - demand is stable, and prices mainly follow costs. There is a positive outlook for the peak season, and long - position allocation can be considered if demand improves [5] - Bottle chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure, and the processing margin is low [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures had low - level fluctuations. Port inventory reached a high, and the supply is expected to increase after the end of autumn maintenance. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and the restart of MTO plants [6] - Urea futures had a weak performance. Spot trading improved slightly, but supply is high, and there is a risk of price fluctuations due to export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices weakened. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fell from a high. Although there is support from demand, the supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to face pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened. Supply decreased slightly, but inventory is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8] - Glass futures rose due to delivery. Spot price decline slowed down, and there is a possibility of price support during the peak season [8]

20250829棉系月报： 短期边际利空有限 关注开秤后多空节奏转换 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年8月29日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、中国央行15日发布的2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告(下称"报告")表示，把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策 的重要考量,推动物价保持在合理水平。 | | 宏观 | 中性偏多 | | | | | 2、美联储主席鲍威尔在2日一场备受关注的演讲中为降息敬开大门,以在美国总统特朗普加大对央行施压之际平衡经济所面 | | | | 临的风险。 | | | | 国际方面,近期美国棉区干旱情况缓解有限,优良率小幅走弱。巴西新棉收获进度为五年同期最慢,整体进度约五成在右, | | | | 国内新季种植上，新棉进入吐絮期，目前新疆产区温度相对较好，疆内无明显阴雨天气负面影响、棉灰反馈潮产预期强烈。 | | 供应 | 中性 | 部分地区反馈9月中下旬新棉将提前上市。新作预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost - end: Overnight crude oil prices dropped significantly and continued to decline during Asian trading hours. The 50% tariff imposed by the US on India led to a bearish outlook on crude oil demand, and API inventory data showed an unexpected inventory build in the US, pressuring oil prices. For PX, China's PX load is gradually recovering, and the PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to a loose balance. Although the near - month PX floating price has weakened, PXN has support due to low inventory and new PTA device demand. For TA, PTA maintenance has increased, improving supply - demand, and the September balance sheet will shift from a loose balance to significant de - stocking. The reduction of September contracts by Hengli may cause supply - demand tension in South China [2]. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.0% (up 0.6% month - on - month), showing signs of recovery. Export shipments and domestic sales stocking are increasing. The load of weaving and texturing is on the rise, with the peak expected in September. Currently, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and profitability is improving. The bottle - chip market has slow de - stocking, and the load is expected to recover in September. For PF, the production profit is 107 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the average load has increased to 91.9%. The downstream load is rising, and inventory is being depleted. For PR, the spot processing fee is 297 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month), and major factories will maintain production cuts in August, with the load expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral: PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. Continue to monitor the PX devices of Shenghong and Zhejiang Petrochemical. For PX, the concentrated restart of PX devices in August and increased PTA maintenance have weakened the fundamentals, but low inventory supports PXN. For TA, the improvement in supply - demand due to PTA maintenance in August and the shift to de - stocking in September, along with potential supply - demand tension in South China, require attention to the return of maintenance devices. For PF, demand has slightly improved, and inventory is being depleted, but the willingness to chase rising raw material prices is low. For PR, major factories have extended maintenance plans, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to range - bound trading after recovery. Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.335MEG2601. Cross - period: No relevant strategies [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures 1 - 4 show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spreads, as well as the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures 5 - 8 show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures 9 - 11 show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Figures 12 - 16 show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures 17 - 22 show the weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures 23 - 36 show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of different filaments, and the profits of different filaments [47][49][66] PF Detailed Data - Figures 37 - 46 show the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn startup rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn startup rate, and processing fees [70][77][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures 49 - 56 show the polyester bottle - chip load, factory bottle - chip inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and month - to - month spreads [86][93][96]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Rubber Industry - New rubber listing is slow, overseas ship arrivals are few, inventory may continue to decline, fundamentals remain strong, and there is still upward potential. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there are news of capacity clearance. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. In the long - term, if some capacity is cleared, supply pressure will decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips, but be aware of the pressure from inventory and warehouse receipts [2]. Polysilicon Industry - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. Future warehouse receipts are expected to increase. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips, and consider short - selling by buying put options at high prices when volatility is low [4]. Log Industry - The current main contract is the 2511 contract, and the market value fluctuates around the delivery cost and receiving value. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The demand remains firm, and the inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to consider buying the 2601 contract on dips [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a weak and volatile state. There is no growth expectation for demand, and the inventory may be further pressured. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - **Glass**: The market is also in a weak and volatile state. The market has a negative feedback loop, with the near - term 09 contract facing weak reality and the far - term 01 contract facing weak expectations. High - level short positions can be closed for profit and wait for new driving factors [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - grade rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 14,900 yuan/ton. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 21.51% to - 1045 yuan/ton. Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.02% to 14,850 yuan/ton [1]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.14% to - 982 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.88% to - 90 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.37% to 1075 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23% to 392,600 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 12.03% to 176,200 tons, India's production increased by 30.82% to 62,400 tons, and China's production increased by 6.8 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.36% to 72.77%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.92% to 63.84%. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16% to 94.364 million, tire exports increased by 10.51% to 66.65 million, and natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% to 474,800 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 0.50% to 616,731 tons, and the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.47% to 44,857 tons [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 0.54% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 12.26% [2]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 40.00% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 33.33% to - 10 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 338,300 tons, Xinjiang's production decreased by 15.21% to 150,300 tons, Yunnan's production increased by 153.86% to 41,200 tons, and Sichuan's production increased by 31.05% to 48,500 tons. The national开工率 increased by 2.47% to 52.61%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 4.54% to 199,800 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons, and industrial silicon exports increased by 8.32% to 74,000 tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.83% to 119,100 tons, Yunnan's factory inventory decreased by 0.94% to 31,600 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37% to 541,000 tons [2]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan/ton and 46,000 yuan/ton respectively. The N - type material basis decreased by 314.52% to - 665 yuan/ton [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 2.00% to 49,665 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 180.00% to - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 6.53% to 31,000 tons, and monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons. Monthly polysilicon imports increased by 47.48% to 120 tons, exports decreased by 3.92% to 210 tons, and net exports decreased by 32.44% to 100 tons [4]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 14.46% to 213,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.68% to 180,500 GW [4]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The log 2509 contract decreased by 0.25% to 790 yuan/cubic meter, the 2511 contract increased by 0.86% to 821.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 2601 contract increased by 1.03% to 836.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged [5]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased to 7.149, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 814.95 yuan/cubic meter [5]. Monthly Data - Port shipments decreased by 1.51% to 1.733 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% to 47 [5]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 22, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, and the daily average log delivery volume was 64,500 cubic meters [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass quotes remained unchanged. The glass 2509 contract decreased by 1.52% to 970 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.29% to 1379 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 1187 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - Soda ash开工率 decreased by 6.79% to 82.47%, and weekly soda ash production decreased by 6.79% to 719,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 1.64% to 62,566,000 heavy boxes, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.26% to 1.8675 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% to 500,700 tons [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [6].

Report Information - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Industrial Silicon Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, down 2.85%, with a trading volume of 450,290 lots and an open interest of 281,839 lots, a net decrease of 7,286 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon opened low and moved high, fluctuating. The price of 553-grade silicon in Sichuan was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,600 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,500 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,700 yuan/ton [4]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, maintaining a loose balance, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The high spot price loosened and declined. The weekly output in the third week of August increased to 88,100 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons, while the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable. The export volume in July increased slightly to 70,000 tons. Without considering 97-grade silicon and recycled silicon, there is no inventory reduction drive in the industry. With policies in a vacuum period, short-term futures fluctuations gradually return to fundamental drivers. The spot price is mainly stable, but the high price has loosened, and the futures price will fluctuate widely [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, down 2.85%, with a trading volume of 450,290 lots and an open interest of 281,839 lots, a net decrease of 7,286 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon opened low and moved high, fluctuating. The price of 553-grade silicon in Sichuan was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,600 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,500 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Future Outlook**: Supply and demand both increased, maintaining a loose balance, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The high spot price loosened and declined. The weekly output in the third week of August increased to 88,100 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons, while the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable. The export volume in July increased slightly to 70,000 tons. Without considering 97-grade silicon and recycled silicon, there is no inventory reduction drive in the industry. With policies in a vacuum period, short-term futures fluctuations gradually return to fundamental drivers. The spot price is mainly stable, but the high price has loosened, and the futures price will fluctuate widely [4]. 2. Market News - On August 28, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,656 lots, a net decrease of 53 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, China exported 74,000 tons of metallic silicon in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China exported a total of 414,700 tons of metallic silicon, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - On August 28, Hesheng Silicon Industry released its semi-annual report for 2025. The company's operating income was 9.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 397 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140.6%; the non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 533 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.3%; the net operating cash flow was 3.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,987.9%; the EPS (fully diluted) was -0.3359 yuan. In the second quarter, the company's operating income was 4.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 657 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 245.9%; the non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 749 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 297.3%; the EPS was -0.5555 yuan [5]. - Data showed that the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to July 2025 reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on device changes and supply - demand balance [5] - PX: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bearish view on month - spread and device changes, and a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [7] 2. Core Views PTA - PTA supply has unexpected maintenance, demand seasonally recovers, the balance improves, and the price recovers. It is greatly affected by sentiment in the short term, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [5] PX - PX inventory pressure is not large, recent supply maintenance plans increase, the expected balance is tight, and the PXN around $270 is slightly high. The current valuation reflects the expectation of fundamental improvement. Pay attention to sentiment changes in the short term and buy on dips [6] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Directory Demand Seasonal Improvement - Terminal orders have partial improvement, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing machines have increased by 7%, 5%, and 5% to 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved [9] - As of August 22, the polyester load is around 90% (+0.6%), the polyester cash flow is slightly in the red, and the average polyester inventory is around 17 days. Polyester is approaching the peak season, demand has seasonal improvement, and raw materials are strong due to "anti - involution", slightly compressing polyester profits. Last week's sales were good, and polyester overall reduced inventory, with the current inventory being neutral [13] - Polyester industry chain profits are average. Filament profits are slightly in the red, FDY losses are relatively serious, bottle - chip and slice profits are average, and staple - fiber profits are neutral [14] PTA Unexpected Maintenance Increase - In August, PTA maintenance volume was high, and maintenance plans increased in September. YS Dahua and YS Hainan are under maintenance, Jiaxing Petrochemical extended its maintenance and restarted, and Fuhua will restart in mid - September. Hengli Huizhou's two lines are under maintenance and reducing load, and Dushan Energy No. 2 is under planned maintenance [34] - As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, (excluding credit warehouse receipts) inventory decreased to 220 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The balance in September may continue to reduce inventory [35] - PTA supply - demand balance: In August - September, with unexpected supply improvement and better demand, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, but the price has reflected the supply improvement. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and buy on dips [40] PXN Strength - US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, the gasoline cracking spread during the peak season remains stable, and the octane number performance is average. Currently, the economics of blending oil is average, and the short - process profit in Asia is acceptable [47][49] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread remains stable. After considering the 25% US tariff on Japan and South Korea, the spread space is not large, and xylene is exempted. North America's demand for aromatics has significantly decreased in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [55] - PX domestic load changes little, with the domestic load at 84.6% and the Asian load at 76.3%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, CNOOC Huizhou slightly reduced its load. There are rumors of maintenance plans for Zhejiang and Lianyungang suppliers. In Asia, Thailand's THAI OIL restarted, Japan's Idemitsu's one line is under maintenance, and Saudi Arabia's Petro Rabigh device restarted [57] - PX is in a loose balance with PTA maintenance. With the expectation of PX maintenance, the PXN remains around $270. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [59] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of August 22, the overall ethylene glycol load is stable at 73%, and the coal - based load is 77%. The coal - chemical load is high, and there are some unexpected situations in some coal - chemical loads. It is expected that the coal - chemical load will slightly decrease in September [69] - Domestic ethylene glycol device changes: The domestic overall load is not low, and there are coal - chemical maintenance plans. Shenghong restarted, Tianying and Wonen restarted, Shanxi Weihua and Shenhua Yulin are under maintenance, and Tianye has a maintenance plan in September. Overseas, Singapore's Aster is under maintenance, and the restart of the cracking device is postponed. US Lotte and Malaysia's Petronas restarted [72][84] - As of August 11, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 50 tons, a decrease of 4.7 tons month - on - month. The current inventory is at a low level. From August 18 - 24, the actual arrival was 6.1 tons, and the port reduced inventory. From August 25 - 31, the expected arrival is about 5.4 tons, and the port is expected to slightly reduce inventory in the short term. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12 days [96] - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The upward space for copper prices is limited due to the supply - side relief of tightness expectations, demand - side drag from high - price suppression of procurement and weak terminal orders, and the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 25, the SHFE main contract closed at 79,360 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premium and discount, the premium of premium copper dropped to 165 yuan/ton, that of flat - water copper decreased to 95 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper dropped by 50% to 15 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) maintained a discount of 78.38 US dollars/ton, with weak support at the spot end [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME inventory continuously declined, reaching 22,917 tons on August 25, a new low in nearly a month, while domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 155,000 tons. The narrowing of import losses to 250 yuan/ton repaired the inverted spread between the domestic and foreign markets, which may limit the activity of arbitrage funds [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term increments. Codelco resumed production at the El Teniente copper mine, strengthening the expectation of supply recovery in Chile. In China, Tibet Summit's copper production increased by 29.9% year - on - year, but Xingye Yinxing's copper production decreased by 44.2% year - on - year, showing a differentiation in mine expansion. Reduced import arrivals made the recent supply tight, but the gradual replenishment of domestic electrolytic copper may ease the gap [3]. - **Demand Side**: There is a structural differentiation in domestic demand, and the suppression effect of high copper prices is significant. The domestic sales of air conditioners increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and the computing power infrastructure drove copper use in the intelligent field. However, the weak orders of cable enterprises and the 5.44% decrease in the finished product inventory of refined copper rods reflected the insufficient carrying capacity of the real economy. The weakening of export demand further restricted the consumption elasticity [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The mainstream copper inventory in China dropped to 123,000 tons on August 25, but SMM predicted that the rebound of import arrivals this week and the consumption suppression by high prices would drive the inventory to rebound month - on - month. The LME inventory overseas continued to decline, but the COMEX inventory reached 272,500 short tons, and the pressure of hidden inventory still needed to be vigilant [5]. Market Summary - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The supply - side relief of tightness expectations and the demand - side drag, along with the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar, limit the upward space for copper prices [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 26, 2025, the price of SMM:1 copper was 79,780 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from August 25. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all decreased, with the wet - process copper's premium dropping by 50%. The SHFE price was 79,360 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from August 25. The LME inventory decreased by 830 tons, a 3.5% decline [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - As of August 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons month - on - month to 12.30 million tons, and it is expected to rebound this week. Codelco announced the resumption of production at some mines in Chile. In July 2025, China's copper product output was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Last week, some refined copper rod enterprises reduced production due to maintenance, with raw material inventory decreasing by 2.31% and finished product inventory decreasing by 5.44%. The ICSG reported a global copper surplus of 36,000 tons in June [9]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14][15][19][22][24][28][29][32] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The analysis of copper futures market data includes market data (price and basis changes, inventory changes), industry chain supply - demand (supply increase from mine resumption and domestic production, demand affected by high prices and export decline), and price trend judgment (high - level oscillation affected by supply, demand, and macro factors such as the US dollar and crude oil). The copper price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - The short - term market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the implementation of macro - policies [1]. Alumina - The market is in an overall oversupply situation, and the spot price is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to have limited upside and downside, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy changes in Guinea and macro - sentiment fluctuations [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract reference operating range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and changes in import policies and volumes [3]. Copper - The Fed's dovish stance boosts copper prices, but the upside is still restricted. The fundamentals are in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper price is expected to at least remain volatile, and the main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply is loose and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The market has digested the sentiment and returned to fundamental pricing. The short - term price is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and import - export situations [10]. Stainless Steel - The cost support remains, but the fundamentals are restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill dynamics [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being fulfilled, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Tin - Affected by the Fed's dovishness, the tin price has risen. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with no change. The spread between different months shows certain fluctuations, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - The operating rate of aluminum profiles remains unchanged at 50.5%, while the operating rates of aluminum cables, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foils have increased slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 47.9 tons, a decrease of 0.17% [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions have decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.16% - 0.31%. The import profit and loss is - 1354 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - The output in July was 765.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The static supply surplus is nearly 30,000 tons per day [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions remain unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan has increased by 1.28% - 1.06% [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63%, and the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.31%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 10.59% [3]. Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.24% to 79585 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased to 128 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 3.47% to 117.43 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 1.20% to 29.69 million tons. The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.3 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.13% to 22280 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased to - 1825 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of refined zinc increased by 3.03% to 60.28 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 50.35% to 1.79 million tons. The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.16% to 121450 yuan/ton. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118531 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04% to 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.93% to 26962 tons [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remains unchanged at 13100 yuan/ton. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.64% to 937 yuan/nickel point [12]. Fundamental Data - The output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The net export volume increased by 22.37% to 34.32 million tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.97% to 81700 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.41% to 81530 tons, and the demand increased by 2.50% to 96100 tons. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97846 tons [14]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.11% to 270000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 9.17% to - 15229.07 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, the import volume of tin ore decreased by 13.71% to 10278 tons, and the output of SMM refined tin increased by 15.42% to 15940 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7491 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. However, individual metal outlooks are provided, including "oscillation" for copper, aluminum, lead, and nickel; "oscillation under pressure" for alumina; "oscillation with a downward bias" for zinc; and "oscillation with potential upward volatility" for tin. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Non-Ferrous Metals**: The weakening US dollar index provides support for base metals. In the short to medium term, the weak dollar supports prices, but the weak demand outlook means the potential for inventory reduction in the September peak season is uncertain. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1]. - **Copper**: Powell's dovish remarks boost copper prices, which are expected to oscillate at a high level. Supply constraints and low inventory support prices, but weakening demand and US tariffs on copper may limit upside [4][5]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weak and stable, and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to overcapacity and inventory accumulation [5][9]. - **Aluminum**: Macro sentiment boosts prices, which are expected to oscillate. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is showing signs of improvement, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation [9][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Strong cost support keeps prices oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand balance is weak, but there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - **Zinc**: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - **Lead**: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten slightly this week, and demand is recovering, but battery enterprise operating rates and scrap battery prices also affect prices [16][18]. - **Nickel**: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the fundamental situation is weakening [19][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes [24]. - **Tin**: Tight supply supports prices at a high level, but weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum, and price volatility may increase [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Powell's dovish speech increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. Supply constraints remain due to low processing fees and reduced production guidance from some mines. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventory provides short - term support. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Alumina**: Smelters are profitable, and the operating capacity is at a high level, resulting in an oversupply situation. Inventory accumulation and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [5][9]. - **Aluminum**: The weakening US dollar and potential domestic stimulus policies affect prices. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve with the approaching peak season, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation. The price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term supply - demand balance is weak. Cost support is strong as scrap aluminum prices follow aluminum ingots. The price is expected to oscillate, and there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - **Zinc**: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - **Lead**: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten due to production cuts and transportation restrictions, and demand is recovering as some battery factories resume production. The price is expected to oscillate [16][18]. - **Nickel**: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment. The fundamental situation is weakening, with potential for looser raw material supply and increasing intermediate product output. The price is expected to oscillate [19][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes. The price is expected to oscillate [24]. - **Tin**: Tight supply due to production disruptions in major producing regions supports prices. However, weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate, and volatility may increase [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this section.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may have a small - scale inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a small inventory build - up in August; zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be a short - position configuration in the long - term; nickel can focus on the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak and should pay attention to policy trends; lead prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillation; tin should be observed in the short - term and held near the cost line in the long - term; industrial silicon is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term; lithium carbonate has large price elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [1][2][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 5, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 45, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 1009. - **Market Situation**: The risk - preference sentiment continued to rise this week. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, it did not affect the stock market sentiment. The downstream orders were verified to have support around 7 - 8, and the substitution effect of refined and waste copper continued to appear. The waste copper and recycled copper market was still disturbed, and if the recycled rod production continued to decline, it might stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, there may be a small - scale inventory build - up, but the market may focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the social inventory of Shanghai aluminum decreased. - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly from January to June. The demand in August is still in the seasonal off - season, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in August. Pay attention to the demand situation in the short - term and the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1300. - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. The supply of domestic zinc increased in August, and the overseas mine supply in the second quarter exceeded expectations. The domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and the overseas demand was average. The domestic social inventory oscillated upwards, and the overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is a short - position configuration. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [5][6]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 450. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory of domestic and overseas nickel plates remained stable. In the short - term, the fundamental situation is general, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. The opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel can continue to be concerned [9][10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil decreased by 75. - **Market Situation**: Some steel mills cut production passively, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend in the later stage [12][14]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 6550. - **Market Situation**: The lead price oscillated this week. The supply side had problems such as weak scrap volume and tight waste batteries. The demand side had high battery finished - product inventory and a "not - prosperous peak season". The inventory was expected to remain at a high level in August, and the lead price was expected to remain in low - level oscillation next week [15]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot import profit decreased by 3915.73, and the LME inventory increased by 45. - **Market Situation**: The tin price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had issues such as low processing fees at the mine end and potential production resumptions overseas. The demand side had limited solder elasticity and different trends in terminal electronics and photovoltaic consumption. The domestic inventory decreased slightly. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it can be held near the cost line [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 110, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 110. - **Market Situation**: The resumption of production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand was in a state of slight inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, the industrial silicon has a large over - capacity, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the SMM electric - carbon price decreased by 1300, and the SMM industrial - carbon price decreased by 1300. - **Market Situation**: The futures price fluctuated greatly this week due to supply - side disturbances. The spot market had a strong peak - season effect, and the inventory was still high. The core contradiction is the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - supply in the long - term. The price has large elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [23][24].