| | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIDGHI EILLINE | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 載生 | 車位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2955 | 2949 | 6.00 | 0.20% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2702 | 2700 | 2.00 | 0.07% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2889 | 2886 | 3.00 | 0.10% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2302 | 2301 | 1.00 | 0.04% | | | CZCE来好拍: 05 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2329 | 2421 | -92.00 | -3.80% | | | CZCE采用拍: 09 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2510 | 60 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is in a pattern of strong current situation and weak future expectations. The 24/25 sugar season has a relatively large short - term supply, making the current situation strong, while the 25/26 sugar season is expected to see increased production and inventory accumulation, resulting in weak expectations. The New York raw sugar price, although having dropped significantly from its peak, is still over - valued compared to other major agricultural products [1][28]. - The pricing anchor of the domestic sugar market has shifted to the cost of out - of - quota imports. Whether in the 24/25 or 25/26 sugar seasons, due to tightened policies on syrup and premixed powder imports, the market needs out - of - quota imports to fill the supply gap [1][26][28]. - The SR2509 contract first trades based on expectations and then on reality. As the contract approaches delivery, the pricing anchor will gradually shift from the expectation of a decline in out - of - quota import costs to the reality of a tight domestic spot market supply [2][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 SR2509 Contract Oscillates Downward, and the Basis Widens - Since April 2025, the price of the SR2509 contract has oscillated downward, and the basis has risen from a minimum of 173 yuan/ton in early April to a maximum of 327 yuan/ton, being at a relatively high level in the same historical period [5]. - The international and domestic market fundamentals are strong. The international market has a supply shortage in the 24/25 sugar season, and the Brazilian and Indian production situations are not optimistic. The domestic market has tightened import policies and faced drought in the Guangxi production area. The weak expectations come from the global economic recession expectation and the expected increase in production and inventory accumulation in the 25/26 sugar season. The SR2509 contract is priced based on expectations, and as the raw sugar price drops, the futures price moves down, causing the basis to widen [6]. 3.2 The Tug - of - War between Reality and Expectation 3.2.1 SR2505 Contract Pricing Benchmark Situation - The SR2505 contract price shows an "N" - shaped trend, and the basis shows a "W" - shaped trend. Since December 2024, the Nanning spot price has fluctuated, and the SR2505 contract generally follows the spot price. The basis fluctuates between 0 - 250 yuan/ton and shows a "W" - shaped trend. Since the end of April 2025, the basis of the SR2505 contract has strengthened significantly [10]. - The SR2505 contract is priced based on the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan. The Zhengzhou sugar registered warehouse receipts are increasing, and the delivery pressure will be concentrated on the SR2509 contract. The warehouse receipts are mainly from beet sugar and Yunnan sugar [12][14][15]. 3.2.2 SR2509 Contract Pricing Benchmark Situation - The SR2509 contract is priced based on expectations, and the basis fluctuates greatly. It generally follows the spot price, and the basis fluctuates between 100 - 350 yuan/ton. Since its listing, it has been mainly priced based on expectations, and its price is more closely linked to the out - of - quota import cost. The large fluctuation of the basis is mainly contributed by the fluctuation of the futures price [19]. - In the past three sugar seasons, the Zhengzhou sugar September contracts have maintained relatively high bases. The reasons for the high bases of SR2309, SR2409, and SR2509 contracts are different, including factors such as unexpected production reduction in the Northern Hemisphere, large imports of syrup and premixed powder, and the difference between international and domestic market situations [21]. 3.2.3 International and Domestic Market Fundamental Situations - In the 24/25 sugar season, the global sugar supply is short by 547,000 tons. The shortage is at a relatively high historical level, indicating a tight supply situation. The expected production in Brazil and India has decreased [23]. - In the 25/26 sugar season, major institutions generally expect an increase in production and inventory accumulation in the global sugar market, with expected supply surpluses of different magnitudes. The expected production in Brazil and India will increase [25]. - The core of the domestic sugar market trading is still the total import volume and structure. The CAOC data shows that the production and consumption in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar seasons change slightly. Due to tightened policies on syrup and premixed powder imports, the market needs out - of - quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor has shifted to the out - of - quota import cost [26]. 3.3 Pricing Anchor: First Trade on Expectations, Then on Reality - The international market is in a pattern of strong current situation and weak future expectations. The domestic market's pricing anchor has shifted to the out - of - quota import cost [1][28]. - The SR2509 contract first trades based on expectations and then on reality. As it approaches delivery, the pricing anchor will shift from the expectation of a decline in out - of - quota import costs to the reality of a tight domestic spot market supply [2][29].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年05月20日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，SC2507夜盘涨幅达0.56%。上周全球石油库存下降0.9%，二季度以来黑库 幅度0.4%较平衡表表现偏紧。短期原油市场在夏季石油需求面临李节性改善,俄乌和谈、美伊核谈 进程由折等地球局势的支撑下或有震荡偏强表现;但考虑到中期供需宽松压力悬而未决,油价反弹 空间亦不过分乐观,关注布伦特70美元/橘、SC510元/桶压力位。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡,日内波动频繁。近期美国经济数据保持韧性,市场降低对于经济轰迷的扣 注，降息路径仍在博弈。贸易战以及地缘冲突各方均处于谈判阶段，消息纷扰下市场情绪可能不断 摇摇。贵金属仍处于震荡调整阶段,国际金价在3000美元/盎司位置具备较强支撑,维持回调买入 思路。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价震荡收涨,沪铜加权技术阻力仍在7.8-7.85万一线。5月中旬后,国内铜消费有转弱 顾向,SMM社库增至13.92万吨;目前大口径显性库存降至约55万吨、仍略高于年初。昨日上海铜升 水扩至440元,广东铜升水270元,且洋山铜溢价降低到95美元。2507合约7.8万上方空单继 ...

Group 1 - From February 2025, industrial silicon spot and futures prices have begun a new downward trend, with prices falling below 9600 yuan/ton in April due to weak fundamentals and slow destocking [1] - As of the third week of May, the average cost of industrial silicon per ton was 10,479.59 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.69%, with a negative gross profit of 924.49 yuan per ton [2] - In the first quarter of this year, the cumulative production of industrial silicon reached 906,800 tons, a decrease of 7.78 million tons or 7.90% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The demand side lacks growth momentum, with the organic silicon market experiencing continuous price declines and high inventory levels, leading to a reduced operating rate of 69.7% among 16 organic silicon enterprises [4] - The total demand for industrial silicon in the first quarter is estimated at 945,800 tons, a decrease of nearly 250,000 tons compared to last year [2][4] - The overall inventory of industrial silicon and downstream products continues to rise, with industrial silicon futures inventory at 331,900 tons, an increase of 4.90% month-on-month and 25.25% year-on-year [5] Group 3 - The supply pressure in the long term is highlighted by the seasonal production off-peak in Sichuan and Yunnan, with a combined production of 1,026,500 tons in 2024, accounting for 21.84% of the national total [3] - The overall macro drivers for the industrial silicon market are weak, with the pricing logic dominated by fundamentals, and the expected production in May is around 320,000 tons, significantly higher than the 632,000 tons needed for supply-demand balance [6] - The current inventory-to-consumption ratio has risen to 2.42, indicating a significant oversupply situation [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年5月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3615元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月19日，华东不通氧现货价8850元/吨，09合约基差为650元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.9万吨，环比增加0.50%,样本企业库存为247600吨，环比减少6.53%,主要 港口库存为13.2万吨，环比减少0.75%。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 6、预期: 供给端排产有所减少，处于历史平均水平附近，需求复苏处于低位，成本支撑有所上升。 工业硅2509：在8025-8235区间 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年5月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：Dataro：预计25/26年度全球供应过剩153万吨。Green Pool：25/26榨季全球食糖产 量增长5.3%，达1.991亿吨。StoneX：25/26年度巴西中南部糖产量预计为4180万吨，24/25年度为 4020万吨。25年1月1日起，进口糖浆及预混粉关税从12%调整到20%，调整后的关税接近原糖配额 外进口关税。2025年4月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1110.72万吨；全国累计销糖724.46 万吨；销糖率65.22%（去年同期57.73%）。2025年4月中国进口食 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1320元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1284元/吨，基差为36元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存171.20万吨，较前一周增加0.63%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.4%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点，连续两个月位于扩张区间，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78745，基差705，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：5月16日铜库存减5275至179375吨，上期所铜库存较上周增27437吨至108142吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，多翻空；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，中美经贸缓和，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（5.12~5.16） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡偏强运行，沪铜主力合约上涨0.89%，收报于78140元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价, 川普上台后，中美关税回归前期，对全球带来积极情绪，商品普遍好转。国内方面，消费进入旺季， 等待消费指引，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。 库存方面，铜库存LME库存179375吨，上周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周增27437吨至108142吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI PMI下行 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2023供需紧平衡，2 ...