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双降&中美经贸会谈后的债市展望
2025-05-15 15:05
双降&中美经贸会谈后的债市展望 20250515 摘要 • 传统流动性指标失效,个人投资者资金分布成关键因素。今年理财扩张规 模或相对一般,对应市场为小牛市。央行主导长端利率下行风险缓解,可 关注 5 到 7 年凸性交易机会。 • 中期来看经济下行和低通胀未结束,利率下行趋势未破坏。信用债投资首 要任务是保持流动性,可适当下沉或拉长久期,关注高流动性溢价品种, 谨慎对待低流动性品种。 今年债券市场的核心主线是什么? 今年债券市场的核心主线是流动性与预期差。预期差既包括基本面的息差,也 包括资金面的预期差。这方面会给证券市场持续带来扰动。我们整体认为今年 的债券市场是一个震荡偏强的市场,预计十年国债运行区间为 1.6 到 1.9,相 对去年利率单边下行,今年可能会有一些波动往复。 对于基本面和流动性的具体判断是什么? 对于基本面,今年最重要的是关注是否已经见底,而不是好转。过去几年,大 家一直预期基本面单边下行,这与地产下行周期匹配。今年一季度讨论剧烈, 认为地产周期是否见底,但二季度随着逻辑被证伪,大家回到偏下行方向。目 前市场对于基本面的预期大于实际结果,即使关税政策对基本面有长期负面影 响或短期正面刺激, ...
5月流动性月报:提支同业存款降价,货基如何应对?-20250513
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-13 14:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - After the release of the pricing optimization initiative, the pressure on inter - bank liabilities has significantly increased, with current deposits flowing out and time deposits remaining relatively stable. Money market funds need to address the issue of interest loss caused by the adjustment of time deposits exceeding the "restricted assets" [1][12]. - In April 2025, due to tariff upgrades, the central level of funds stepped down. The central bank's open - market operations were flexible, and the overall operation of funds was stable. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate was implemented, exceeding market expectations [4][71]. - In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio will offset the potential disturbances of fiscal factors to the capital market, and the pressure on the capital gap will be significantly alleviated. In the future, the capital price may continue to run slightly higher than the policy interest rate [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 How to Respond to the Reduction of Early - Withdrawal Pricing for Money Market Funds? 3.1.1 Inter - bank Deposit Changes: Current Deposits Flow Out, Time Deposits Remain Relatively Stable - After the release of the pricing optimization initiative in November 2024, except for the increase in February driven by the transfer of current deposits to time deposits, inter - bank deposits have flowed out significantly in other months, and the pressure on inter - bank liabilities has increased. From December 2024 to March 2025, inter - bank deposits decreased by 3.3 trillion yuan [12]. - In terms of term structure, current deposits have flowed out significantly, while time deposits have remained relatively stable. The outflow of inter - bank deposits is mainly concentrated in large - scale banks, which is consistent with the distribution of current deposits. By comparing the first and second halves of 2024, the current deposits of important money market funds decreased from 4719 billion yuan to 1528 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 70%, while time deposits decreased from 7234 billion yuan to 6818 billion yuan, a decrease of only 6% [13]. 3.1.2 How Large is the Scale of Time Deposits of Money Market Funds Exceeding "Restricted Assets"? - The proportion of time deposits in the net asset value of important money market funds at the end of 2024 was about 30%. Based on the total net asset value of all money market funds in the first quarter of 2025, which was 13.3 trillion yuan, the scale of inter - bank time deposits was about 4 trillion yuan [19]. - With a 10% upper limit for restricted assets, the upper limit for inter - bank time deposits of money market funds with a maturity of more than 10 trading days is about 1.3 trillion yuan. In an extreme scenario, 2.7 trillion yuan of the 4 - trillion - yuan inter - bank time deposits need to be adjusted [19]. 3.1.3 How Do Money Market Funds Respond? - Response 1: Using the fund risk reserve to compensate for part of the interest loss from early - withdrawal. The lower limit of the fund company's risk reserve is about 320 billion yuan. The interest loss of 2.7 trillion yuan of early - withdrawal time deposits is about 37.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 12% of the risk reserve. However, due to the complex process, it can only cover a small part of the early - withdrawal deposits [20][22]. - Response 2: Rolling over 14 - day inter - bank time deposits. Since the beginning of this year, the term spread of inter - bank deposits with a maturity of less than 14 days has significantly narrowed. Generalized fund products may prefer short - term products with a maturity of less than 14 days [26]. 3.2 Review of the April Capital Market and Liquidity: Tariff Upgrades, Central Level of Funds Steps Down 3.2.1 Capital Market Review: The Fluctuation Range of Funds Widens - In April 2025, due to trade frictions, the central level of funds stepped down to 1.6 - 1.7%. The fluctuation ranges of overnight and 7 - day weighted prices increased compared with March. The spread between 7 - day and overnight funds was mostly around 5bp, with two days of inversion [28]. - In terms of capital operation, the central bank's open - market operations were flexible. In the early stage of the tariff conflict, the capital constraint was relaxed, and the central level of DR007 stepped down. In the middle and late stages, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase operations to hedge against disturbances, and the capital operation was generally stable. At the end of the month, the DR007 price slightly decreased and broke through 1.7% [33]. - In terms of capital stratification, the pressure on stratification was not significant in April, and the spread narrowed. The spread between R007 and DR007 and the spread between GC007 and DR007 both decreased [38]. 3.2.2 Liquidity Review: Limited Disturbances from Gaps, the Central Bank Increases Support, and the Capital Market Continues to Recover - Liquidity Aggregate: In April, the excess reserve level was low, with an excess reserve rate of about 1.0% and a narrow - sense excess reserve level of about 0.45% after deducting reverse - repurchases, which is a seasonally low level. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points may increase the excess reserve rate by 0.5 percentage points, and the excess reserve level may return to the seasonal level [56]. - Open - Market Operations: In April, the central bank's open - market operations continued to increase. The reverse - repurchase balance first decreased and then increased. The MLF was over - renewed, with a net investment of 500 billion yuan, and the net investment of MLF was equal to the net withdrawal of outright reverse - repurchases. The outright reverse - repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 500 billion yuan [59][65][67]. 3.3 April Monetary Policy Tracking: The Goal of "Stabilizing Growth" Takes Precedence, and Double Reductions are Implemented in May - In April 2025, the central bank focused more on "stabilizing growth" on the basis of the "moderately loose" policy tone, and the central level of funds stepped down. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate was implemented, exceeding market expectations [71]. - After the tariff upgrade in early April, the central bank supported Huijin Company to increase its holdings of stock ETFs and provided sufficient re - loans. In the middle and late April, the central bank's OMO changed from net withdrawal to net investment to hedge against various disturbances. At the end of April, the MLF was over - renewed, and the Politburo meeting continued the "moderately loose" tone. On May 7, the central bank announced the simultaneous implementation of the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate [71][74]. 3.4 May Gap Prediction: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio is Implemented, and the Capital Expectation is Eased 3.4.1 Rigid Gap: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio Releases Excess Reserves, and it is a Big Month for the Maturity of Outright Reverse - Repurchases - In May, as it is a small month for general deposits, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points may release nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of excess reserves. The maturity scale of MLF is 125 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of outright reverse - repurchases is 900 billion yuan [78]. 3.4.2 Exogenous Shocks: The Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits on Excess Reserves is Small - In May, cash inflows may supplement about 60 billion yuan, and non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement about 12 billion yuan of excess reserves [81]. 3.4.3 Fiscal Factors: The Issuance of Government Bonds Accelerates, and the Tax Payment Scale is Relatively Large - In May, the net financing scale of government bonds may rise to about 1.68 trillion yuan, and the tax payment scale is relatively large. The reduction of the reserve requirement ratio in May will release more than one trillion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity, and the payment and tax payment are mainly short - term capital disturbances, so the capital expectation may tend to ease [85]. 3.4.4 Comprehensive Judgment: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio Stabilizes the Disturbances from Payments, and the Capital Expectation is Eased - Overall, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio in May will release nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of liquidity, and cash inflows and non - financial institution deposits will slightly supplement liquidity. The maturity of 900 billion yuan of outright reverse - repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF requires attention to the central bank's hedging tools. The absorption of liquidity by government deposits may be about 600 billion yuan. After the implementation of the double - reduction policy, the capital expectation has been significantly eased, and in the future, the capital price may continue to run slightly higher than the policy interest rate [89][94].
申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250513
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-13 01:17
Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369 points, with a daily increase of 0.82% and a monthly increase of 2.75% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2004 points, with a daily increase of 1.7% and a monthly increase of 4.62% [1] - The large-cap index showed a 1.15% increase yesterday, while the mid-cap and small-cap indices increased by 1.37% and 1.45% respectively [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The maritime equipment sector saw a daily increase of 7.08% and a monthly increase of 10.86% [1] - The military electronics sector increased by 5.21% daily and 7.66% monthly [1] - The precious metals sector experienced a decline of 2.03% yesterday and a decrease of 0.87% over the month [1] Group 3: Company Insights - Mixue Group - Mixue Group is the leading fresh beverage company in China, with a market share of 20.2% based on retail sales in 2023, making it the largest in the fresh tea beverage sector [4][16] - The company operates 46,479 stores globally, covering 11 countries, and is the only major player focused on the affordable price segment [16] - The market for fresh beverages in China reached 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 22.2% from 2023 to 2028 [16][17] Group 4: Company Insights - SMIC - SMIC reported a revenue of 2.247 billion USD for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.4% [19] - The overall utilization rate for Q1 was 89.6%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.1 percentage points [19] - The company expects a slight decrease in revenue guidance for Q2 due to production fluctuations, maintaining high capital expenditures [19]
温彬专栏丨灵活把握货币政策实施的力度和节奏
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-12 17:50
Group 1 - The central government has emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announcing a series of measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [2][5] - The PBOC's recent report indicates that monetary policy will continue to support the economy, focusing on implementation and effectiveness evaluation [2][5] - The report highlights the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments due to external uncertainties affecting exports, particularly from U.S. tariff policies [3][4] Group 2 - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to support fiscal policy, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds [4] - The PBOC aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market to support these fiscal measures, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [6][7] - The report outlines specific policy tools to support sectors such as technology finance, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in new funding [7] Group 3 - The PBOC is maintaining a focus on the stability of the financial markets, particularly in the context of recent fluctuations in the international financial markets due to U.S. trade policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, reflecting concerns over banks' net interest margins [5][9] - The PBOC's assessment of government debt sustainability indicates that China's fiscal policy still has room for expansion, supporting the notion of continued monetary easing [10] Group 4 - The report expands its focus to include various economic indicators, such as the evolution of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and the sustainability of government debt, reflecting a comprehensive approach to monetary policy [9][10] - The PBOC acknowledges the current low inflation environment and the need for policies that stimulate effective demand while managing supply-side constraints [10][11] - The overall strategy involves deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policy measures to achieve a balance between supply and demand, while fostering a conducive environment for reasonable price recovery [11]
2025年4月读书课:《资本战争:全球流动性的涨潮》
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-12 10:56
有一个案例可以佐证这个结论。在过去的几十年里,大家看到美国标普500指数的涨幅其实很引人注 目。但在涨幅中,大约63%的贡献其实来自于流动性的扩张,即资金的涌入。剩下的37%,也就是大约 三分之一的涨幅,才是由标普500指数中企业的利润增长所贡献的。 可能很多朋友会质疑:这难道不是因为企业利润有增长预期,才吸引了大量资金流入吗?你没办法把资 产价格的上涨完全按比例归结为流动性的流入。但实际上,这本书也举了其他例子。比如在2020年之 前,印度这个新兴市场中,很多企业的利润表现非常平淡,但这并没有阻止资金流入,推动股价上涨, 并形成了一个巨大的市场浪潮。类似的例子还有很多。 从上世纪80年代开始,全球实际上已经进入了一个全新的时代。这个时代中,资金的流入流出、汹涌澎 湃的流向往往决定了一个资产的价格涨跌。这可能也深刻改变了全球市场中不同的投资流派。不知道是 不是巧合,我们观察到从上世纪90年代末开始,或者说从21世纪初开始,像巴菲特所秉持的价值投资 派,在这段时间里,跑赢标普500指数的概率和幅度已经被压得很低,再也没有出现像上世纪六七十年 代或七八十年代那种价值投资派一骑绝尘、在市场中壮观的涨幅。 本文为妙投 ...
【钢铁】螺纹钢价格再次降至近8个月低位水平——金属周期品高频数据周报(2025.5.5-5.11)(王招华/戴默)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-12 09:18
本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户,用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便, 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: (1)石墨电极:超高功率18000元/吨,环比+0.00%,综合毛利润为1357.4元/吨,环比+0.00%;(2)电 解铝价格为19550元/吨,环比-2.69%,测算利润为2563元/吨(不含税),环比-10.76%;(3)预焙阳极本 周价格为5330元/吨,环比-5.50%;(4)本周电解铜价格为 78380元/吨,环比+0.45%。 比价关系:热轧与螺纹钢价差处于同期低位水平 流动性:2025年4月BCI中小企业融资环境指数值环比上月-7.24% (1)BCI中小企业融资环境指数2025年4月值为48.03,环比上月-7.24%;(2)M1和M2增速差与上证指 数存在较强的正向相关性:M1和M2增速差在2025年3月 ...
金属周期品高频数据周报:螺纹钢价格再次降至近8个月低位水平-20250512
EBSCN· 2025-05-12 04:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that rebar prices have dropped to an 8-month low, indicating a challenging environment for the construction and real estate sectors [1][40]. - The steel industry's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent regulatory changes and improved demand dynamics [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for April 2025 is 48.03, down 7.24% month-on-month [10]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.4 percentage points in March 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points [10]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices decreased by 1.56% this week, with a current price of 3150 yuan/ton [1][40]. - The national steel PMI new orders index for April 2025 is 51%, up 9.9 percentage points from the previous month [40]. Industrial Products Chain - The half-steel tire operating rate decreased by 14.08 percentage points this week, indicating a slowdown in production [2]. - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel down 0.59% and copper up 0.45% [2]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.00%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +3.17% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. Real Estate Completion Chain - The cumulative year-on-year change in the national completed area of commercial housing from January to March 2025 is -14.30% [72]. - The price of titanium dioxide is 14600 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of -355 yuan/ton, indicating low profitability in the sector [75]. Price Comparison - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is currently 80 yuan/ton, reflecting a low price spread [3]. - The price of electrolytic copper is 78380 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.45% [9].
一周流动性观察 | 月初资金面季节性转松叠加降准降息落地 资金利率“下台阶”
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-05-12 02:39
四是,税期扰动相对有限。由于五一假期,5月纳税申报截止日推迟至22日,23、26日走款,16日起借 入7天资金才可跨税期,税期对下周资金面的扰动有限。 转自:新华财经 新华财经北京5月12日电(刘润榕)人民银行12日开展430亿元7天逆回购操作,操作利率为1.40%;鉴 于当日无逆回购到期,公开市场实现净投放430亿元。 上周(5月6-11日)央行公开市场实现净回笼7817亿元,资金面季节性转松,叠加降准降息落地,资金 利率明显下行。截至5月9日收盘,隔夜利率下探至1.50%一线,R001加权平均利率降至1.52%,DR001 加权平均利率报1.49%。R007加权平均利率、DR007加权平均利率同样降至1.60%水平以下,分别报 1.58%、1.54%。 在华西证券首席经济学家刘郁看来,两大因素共同推动资金利率下行。其一,季节性因素,月初资金利 率往往呈季节性下行态势。一般而言,由于上月末财政资金支出的支撑以及月初银行融出意愿回升,月 初资金面通常转松。 其二,货币政策发力,降准降息等一揽子宽货币政策落地,推动资金利率中枢下移。5月7日, 中国人 民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会三部门联 ...
申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250512
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-12 01:13
Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3342 points, with a 1-day decline of 0.3% and a 1-month increase of 1.92% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 1971 points, with a 1-day decline of 0.88% and a 1-month increase of 2.88% [1] - The large-cap index showed a 1-day decline of 0.15% but a 1-month increase of 4.65% [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The personal care products industry saw a daily increase of 2.72% and a 1-month increase of 18.62% [1] - The banking sector, particularly joint-stock banks, experienced a daily increase of 1.64% and a 1-month increase of 7.68% [1] - The film and television industry faced a daily decline of 2.61% but had a 1-month increase of 2.12% [1] Group 3: Honey Snow Group (蜜雪集团) Insights - Honey Snow Group is the leading fresh beverage company in China, with a market share of 20.2% based on retail sales in 2023 [18] - The company operates 46,479 stores globally, making it the largest fresh beverage company by store count [18] - The fresh beverage market in China reached 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 22.2% from 2023 to 2028 [18][19] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Insights - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a first-quarter utilization rate of 89.6%, with a year-on-year increase in wafer delivery volume of 27.7% [21] - The average selling price (ASP) for wafers decreased by 11.5% to 980 USD per piece due to production adjustments [21] - The company expects a slight revenue decline in the second quarter due to production fluctuations, while maintaining high capital expenditures [21] Group 5: Fund Performance Measurement - A new fund performance measurement method was developed, focusing on extracting similar fund samples and calculating their excess returns [15] - The model has shown a historical return of 112.96%, significantly outperforming the benchmark index [15][17] - The methodology aims to improve the efficiency of fund selection by addressing the limitations of traditional performance momentum strategies [15]
5月流动性:可以更加乐观
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-11 09:14
2025 年 05 月 11 日 5 月流动性:可以更加乐观 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 联系人 黄伟平 (8621)23297818× huangwp@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 宽松政策兑现为 5 月流动性揭开良好序幕。5 月 7 日国新办举办新闻发布会,介绍"一 揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。其中,央行潘功胜行长宣布了三类十项货 币政策措施,意味着宽松政策从预期走向落地,为 5 月流动性揭开了良好序幕。 ⚫ 5 月资金中枢回落,保持积极乐观。多视角看待,5 月流动性均可保持积极乐观,资金中 枢或向政策利率附近逐步回归。 ◼ 汇率掣肘逐步打开。近期即期汇率已从高于中间价修复至靠近于中间价,稳汇率压 力大幅缓解,对资金利率的制约明显缓和,或也构成此次政策利率降息的重要时机。 ◼ 上半年政府债供给高峰即将到来,货币配合之下流动性压力难复现。(1)回顾四 月来看,流 ...