Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continued supportive monetary policy stance [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On September 15, the PBOC will conduct a fixed amount, interest rate tender, multi-price bidding reverse repurchase operation of 600 billion yuan with a term of 6 months (182 days) [1] - This operation is equivalent to a 300 billion yuan increase in the 6-month reverse repurchase, as 300 billion yuan of the same term is maturing in the month [1] - On September 5, the PBOC conducted an equal renewal of 1 trillion yuan for a 3-month reverse repurchase that was maturing, indicating a total increase of 300 billion yuan for both terms by September 15, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased operations [1] Group 2: Market Implications - According to Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, the PBOC's reverse repurchase operations continuously inject liquidity into the market [1] - This action helps stabilize market expectations and supports government bond issuance, while also signaling a sustained commitment to quantitative policy tools [1] - The ongoing supportive monetary policy stance reflects the PBOC's intention to bolster economic conditions [1]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China reported that the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, which is a slight decrease from the previous month and about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year [2][1] - The weighted average interest rate for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down approximately 25 basis points year-on-year, indicating historically low levels for both types of loans [2][1] - In the first eight months of the year, the total increase in RMB loans reached 13.46 trillion yuan, demonstrating a solid support for the real economy [2] - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 331.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, indicating ample liquidity in the market [2] - The growth rate of social financing remained at a high level, further supporting economic stability [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index closed up with reduced volatility and shrinking trading volume. There is still upward potential for the stock index due to abundant domestic liquidity, high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, and the potential marginal repair of PPI, which could improve A-share profitability. The strategy is to go long opportunistically and take advantage of the premium/discount of stock index futures to place long orders [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.43 with a 1.12bp increase, DR007 at 1.48 with a -0.26bp decrease, GC001 at 1.54 with a -5.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a -3.50bp decrease. SHBOR 3M was at 1.55 with a 0.20bp increase, and LPR 5-year remained unchanged at 3.50 [4]. - The 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.41, 1.65, and 1.89 respectively, with increases of 1.56bp, 2.06bp, and 2.52bp. The 10-year US treasury bond closed at 4.08 with a 3.00bp increase [4]. - The central bank conducted 3040 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 2291 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion yuan. This week, 10684 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and the central bank may restart treasury bond trading operations [4]. Stock Index Market - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4445, 2940, 6932, and 7230 respectively, with increases of 0.21%, 0.37%, 0.05%, and 0.06%. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the trading volume of the two markets at 19781 billion yuan, a decrease of 1404 billion yuan [5]. - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF volume increased by 7.4% to 130680, and its position increased by 2.7% to 275475 [5]. Futures Premium/Discount - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different delivery months have different premium/discount rates. For example, the IF current-month contract has a premium rate of 11.83% [7].

看得出 Solana 是很想在 meme 赌场的定位之外找到新的增长点了，PPI 之后价格表现有点猛。上周四凌晨 Moonshot 上线了一堆 xStocks @xStocksFi 的股票，涵盖 Coinbase、Meta、亚马逊、特斯拉等 60+ 只标的。通过和 Moonshot 合作，xStocks 利用 Solana 目前最大的优势也就是热钱多 + 流动性好，试图引入一部分 ms 的用户来交易 xStocks 发行的代币化股票Solana 的官推此前还发布过针对这一系列代币化股票的案例研究，里面介绍了完整的 60+ 股票列表除了 @Solana_zh 链之外，xStocks 还上线了以太坊，有一系列进展，“链上华尔街”的愿景有了一些实感，这下我们真可以说自己是尊贵的美股交易员了先来看核心数据：- 交易量突破 6 亿美元- 链上持有人 2.5 万- AUM 规模达到 4400 万美元- 在 CEX 端，已上线 Kraken、Bybit 等平台，总成交量突破 36 亿美元xStocks 的流动性正在快速逼近真实股票市场的活跃度，虽然目前来说流动性还是不及纳斯达克，但在圈内用户来说，总体来说代币化股票同时获得 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recent risk preference recovery has suppressed the bond market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rising global trade uncertainty have increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. - Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.24%); M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.02%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.76, with a day - on - day increase of 0.31 (+0.32%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1187, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.012 (-0.17%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a day - on - day increase of 0.03 (+2.02%); DR007 is 1.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.03 (+1.83%); R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 (-3.26%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.57, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.51%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.51%) [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On September 9, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.38 yuan, 105.57 yuan, 107.78 yuan, and 115.72 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.02%, - 0.01%, - 0.06%, and - 0.22% [3]. - The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.014 yuan, 0.003 yuan, 0.212 yuan, and - 0.172 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded to 5.6% and 8.8% respectively, and the gap narrowed to 3.2%, indicating abundant liquidity and increased activity of corporate current funds, but weak credit derivative efficiency, continuous contraction of long - term loans of residents and enterprises, and insufficient investment and consumption demand [2]. - On September 9, 2025, the central bank conducted a 247 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.419%, 1.467%, 1.500%, and 1.522% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides multiple spread - related figures, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [31][35][36]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures related to the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [38][41][48]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [50][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [57][60][58]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures related to the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [64][70]. Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds and the treasury bond futures price fluctuates, it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis spread [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint This week (from September 1st to 5th), the funds rate showed a divergence, with large - bank financing supply increasing on a daily average basis, and funds increasing leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were funds, with the net buying volume lower than last week. Funds mainly increased their holdings of 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds, insurers increased their allocation of interest - rate bonds over 15Y, rural commercial banks turned to slightly increase their holdings, securities firms increased their positions in 3 - 7Y interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought interest - rate bonds within 5Y [4]. Summary by Section 1. Money and Fundamentals - **Open - market operations**: A total of 2273.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank injected 1068.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and on Friday, 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases were both issued and matured. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 1204.7 billion yuan [7][10]. - **Funds price**: As of September 5th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.36%, 1.46%, 1.32%, and 1.44% respectively, with changes of - 5.75BP, - 6.05BP, - 1.32BP, and - 7.86BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 15%, 7%, 12%, and 2% historical percentiles respectively [7][13]. - **Large - bank financing supply**: From September 1st to 5th, the total large - bank financing supply was 20.82 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily supply of 4.6 trillion yuan and an average daily supply of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [7][16]. - **Pledged - repo trading volume**: The pledged - repo trading volume increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.31 trillion yuan and a maximum daily volume of 7.95 trillion yuan, a 3.42% increase compared to the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repo trading increased, with an average daily proportion of 88.4% and a maximum daily proportion of 90.2%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and was at the 88.6% percentile as of September 5th [7][18]. 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and financing of certificates of deposit**: This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount turned positive. The total issuance was 581.7 billion yuan, an increase of 24.48 billion yuan from the previous week; the total maturity was 330.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 464.37 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing amount was 251.65 billion yuan, an increase of 499.96 billion yuan from the previous week. Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. Among different maturities, 3M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale [7][22]. - **Yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit**: The yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. As of September 5th, the yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit rated AAA were 1.45%, 1.55%, 1.63%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively, with changes of - 0.9BP, 1BP, 1.1BP, 0.45BP, and 0.5BP compared to August 29th [7][33]. - **Bill rates**: Bill rates showed a divergence. As of September 5th, the 3M state - owned straight - discount rate, 3M state - owned transfer - discount rate, 6M state - owned straight - discount rate, and 6M state - owned transfer - discount rate were 1.26%, 1.18%, 0.78%, and 0.73% respectively, with changes of 8BP, 13BP, - 4BP, and - 7BP compared to August 29th [7][35]. 3. Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of September 5th, the total inter - bank leverage ratio in the bond market increased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.55% compared to August 29th, at the 36.8% historical percentile since 2021. The leverage ratio of broad - based funds increased slightly. As of September 5th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurers, and broad - based funds were 103.5%, 188.3%, 128.1%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of 0.54BP, 0.54BP, - 2.08BP, and 0.05BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 26%, 1%, 66%, and 24% historical percentiles respectively [7][37][39]. - **Duration adjustment**: Funds increased their duration, while insurers and wealth - management products decreased their duration. As of September 5th, the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of funds was 3.42 years, further recovering from - 1.96 years on August 29th, at the 70% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of wealth - management products was 1.03 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 57% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was - 1.62 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 22% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of insurers was 12.07 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 87% historical percentile [7][44].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a brief rally but ultimately closed lower, reflecting heightened concerns over recession risks despite expectations of significant interest rate cuts [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply across the board, with long-term bonds leading the decline, indicating a more pessimistic outlook in the bond market compared to equities, as funds are pricing in a recession rather than merely reacting to rate cut expectations [1] - Gold reached an all-time high, hitting $3600 per ounce during trading, signifying its transition from a commodity to a tool for hedging against systemic risks [1] Group 2 - Market participants are anticipating substantial interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to address economic challenges, but data from Goldman Sachs suggests that financial conditions are already extremely loose, implying that further rate cuts may not effectively support the stock market as the underlying issue lies within the economy [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, corporate earnings have not significantly improved. After repeated digestion of previous policy benefits, market bullish sentiment has cooled. There is a risk of adjustment in stock indices due to profit - taking pressure. Gold has accelerated its short - term rise driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [42]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Gold may face a deep - adjustment risk due to the fading of uncertainties from US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the repeated digestion of the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. Industrial production expansion accelerated, demand improved marginally, but external demand faced significant downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remained weak [3][4]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - **Corporate Earnings**: Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure. They cannot transfer production costs to end - consumers, resulting in a long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits. Some industries are still in the active de - stocking phase, with finished - product inventories continuing to decline [18]. - **Funding and Liquidity**: The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 1.0684 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan [22]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data - **Inflation and Consumption**: The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 2.8%), rising for 3 consecutive months and reaching a new high since February. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. US tariff policies are affecting prices, suppressing consumer confidence and consumption expenditure [28]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold futures' warehouse receipts and inventory have been rising, indicating an increase in physical gold delivery demand and a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - **Stock Indices**: Although the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in July, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, with insufficient demand being the main contradiction. The previous sharp rise in stock index futures was driven by multiple factors such as policies, funds, and sentiment. However, the inflection point of corporate earnings growth has not arrived. As policy benefits are repeatedly digested, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and short - term adjustments are expected [41]. - **Gold**: Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, suggesting that a September interest rate cut is highly likely. The controversy over Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has intensified market concerns about central bank independence, driving up the gold price to a new record high. Attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [41].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continuation of its flexible monetary policy approach [1][5][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Operations - The recent reverse repurchase operation is a routine measure, reflecting a shift in the operation model since June, moving from monthly disclosures to flexible, pre-announced operations [6][7]. - The 1 trillion yuan operation is an equal rollover, consistent with seasonal patterns, and does not indicate a change in policy stance [6][7]. - Since May, the PBOC has maintained a trend of net liquidity injection, with August seeing a net injection of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF [2][7]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Space - Potential future monetary policy actions include restarting government bond transactions, contingent on increased counter-cyclical adjustment pressures and favorable interest rates [3][8]. - Targeted support for sectors such as real estate and consumption is anticipated to bolster financing demand and improve broad liquidity [3][8]. Group 3: Asset Pricing Implications - There exists a substitution logic between narrow and broad liquidity; if broad liquidity does not expand effectively, narrow liquidity may appear ample, but weak earnings could hinder pricing [4][9]. - The market dynamics observed in July and August indicate a scenario of ample narrow liquidity but weak broad liquidity, with future pricing volatility likely influenced by the relationship between broad liquidity and corporate earnings [4][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity situation from July to September 2025, predicting that the September capital market will likely remain relatively loose, similar to August, within the existing policy framework [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 July: Slow Replacement Bond Expenditure and Neutral Excess Reserve Ratio - July's excess reserve ratio dropped by 0.2pct to 1.2%, slightly more than expected but at a neutral level for non - quarter - end months [6]. - Fiscal deposits in July rose by 7648 billion yuan, higher than the expected 4508 billion yuan, indicating a slow expenditure progress of replacement bonds [6]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations increased by 2184 billion yuan in July, matching high - frequency monetary policy tools [6]. 3.2 August: Rising Excess Reserve Ratio and New Low in Capital Interest Rate - The scale of the broad fiscal deficit in August may be higher than in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds will reduce government deposits. Government bond net supply decreased significantly compared to last year, with an estimated 3100 - billion - yuan decline in government deposits [13]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to rise by about 4900 billion yuan in August, and the excess reserve ratio is estimated to be about 1.4%, up 0.2pct from July [13]. - In August, capital was generally loose but tightened after the middle of the month. The decline in bank net lending around the tax period was significantly higher than in previous years, which may be related to the stock market and the central bank's "anti - arbitrage" stance, but the impact may be short - term [32]. - The average values of DR001 and DR007 in August reached new lows for the year, possibly due to the decline in non - bank institutional leverage demand [51]. 3.3 September: Stable Capital Interest Rate and Limited Downward Space for Overnight Interest Rate - The broad fiscal deficit in September may still be higher than in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds will continue to reduce government deposits. The net financing of government bonds is expected to decline slightly compared to August, with an estimated 7800 - billion - yuan decline in government deposits [57]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to rise by about 2800 billion yuan in September, and the excess reserve ratio is estimated to be about 1.6%, up 0.2pct from August [57]. - There is no obvious exogenous shock to the capital market in September. The central bank aims to boost inflation, and the probability of policy tightening is low. The capital market in September is likely to remain relatively loose, similar to August [65][69].