交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年5月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：Dataro：预计25/26年度全球供应过剩153万吨。Green Pool：25/26榨季全球食糖产 量增长5.3%，达1.991亿吨。StoneX：25/26年度巴西中南部糖产量预计为4180万吨，24/25年度为 4020万吨。25年1月1日起，进口糖浆及预混粉关税从12%调整到20%，调整后的关税接近原糖配额 外进口关税。2025年4月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1110.72万吨；全国累计销糖724.46 万吨；销糖率65.22%（去年同期57.73%）。2025年4月中国进口食 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-05-22 产业链缺乏利好驱动，浆价反弹空间受限 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13440元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨，幅度+0.34%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14487元/吨，较前一日变动+22元/吨，现货基差CF09+1047，较前一日变动-23；3128B棉全国均价14567元/吨， 较前一日变动+17元/吨，现货基差CF09+1127，较前一日变动-28。 近期市场资讯，据中国棉花信息网对全国棉花交易市场18个省市的154家棉花交割和监管仓库、社会仓库、保税区 库存和加工企业库存调查数据显示，截止5月15日全国棉花商业库存383.4万吨，较4月底减少31.86万吨，减幅7.67%。 其中新疆疆内棉花库存为260.27万吨，较4月底减少28.87万吨；内地库存83.93万吨，较4月底减少2.29万吨，进口 棉保税库存为39.2万吨，较4月底减少0.7万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进展，降低关税的幅度超出市场预期，中美经贸关系快 速缓和，市场情绪明显转好。不过美国对中国商品加征关税仍累计30% ...

Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday (May 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.19 - $63.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.38 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.85 - $66 [1] - According to a news report from a Middle - Eastern country, Khamenei doubts whether the nuclear negotiation with the US can reach an agreement as Iran is reviewing the proposal for the fifth - round negotiation. If the agreement is reached and US sanctions on Iran are relaxed, the agreement between the two countries will increase Iran's daily oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels [2] - The International Energy Agency released its May "Oil Market Monthly Report" on Thursday. The report believes that economic headwinds and record - high sales of electric vehicles will reduce the average daily global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels for the rest of 2025. At this rate, the average daily global oil demand growth will slow down from 990,000 barrels in the first quarter of this year [3] - Currently, the progress of the two negotiations is poor, and the trade tensions are temporarily relieved, so international oil prices are temporarily supported. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited, mainly due to Trump's uncertain tariff policy affecting the economy and OPEC+ maintaining the production - increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, the pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. The oil consumption increments of major consumer countries during the summer oil consumption peak season may be affected by factors such as the sluggish economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, and oil prices will still be under pressure [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年5月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：Dataro：预计25/26年度全球供应过剩153万吨。Green Pool：25/26榨季全球食糖产 量增长5.3%，达1.991亿吨。StoneX：25/26年度巴西中南部糖产量预计为4180万吨，24/25年度为 4020万吨。25年1月1日起，进口糖浆及预混粉关税从12%调整到20%，调整后的关税接近原糖配额 外进口关税。2025年4月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1110.72万吨；全国累计销糖724.46 万吨；销糖率65.22%（去年同期57.73%）。2025年4月中国进口食 ...

2025年05月21日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 21 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：丁二烯回调，震荡承压 | 4 | | 沥青：区间震荡，观望为上 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 8 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 10 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 16 | | 尿素：高位震荡 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期支撑走强，关注内盘反弹 | 22 | | PVC：后期仍有压力 | 25 | | 燃料油：日盘小幅上涨，短期转入调整走势 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘继续转弱，外盘高低硫价差小幅回弹 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，6-8反套减仓止盈；10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 | 31 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，成 ...

| | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIDGHI EILLINE | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 載生 | 車位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2955 | 2949 | 6.00 | 0.20% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2702 | 2700 | 2.00 | 0.07% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2889 | 2886 | 3.00 | 0.10% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2302 | 2301 | 1.00 | 0.04% | | | CZCE来好拍: 05 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2329 | 2421 | -92.00 | -3.80% | | | CZCE采用拍: 09 | 5月20日 | 元/吨 | 2510 | 60 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is in a pattern of strong current situation and weak future expectations. The 24/25 sugar season has a relatively large short - term supply, making the current situation strong, while the 25/26 sugar season is expected to see increased production and inventory accumulation, resulting in weak expectations. The New York raw sugar price, although having dropped significantly from its peak, is still over - valued compared to other major agricultural products [1][28]. - The pricing anchor of the domestic sugar market has shifted to the cost of out - of - quota imports. Whether in the 24/25 or 25/26 sugar seasons, due to tightened policies on syrup and premixed powder imports, the market needs out - of - quota imports to fill the supply gap [1][26][28]. - The SR2509 contract first trades based on expectations and then on reality. As the contract approaches delivery, the pricing anchor will gradually shift from the expectation of a decline in out - of - quota import costs to the reality of a tight domestic spot market supply [2][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 SR2509 Contract Oscillates Downward, and the Basis Widens - Since April 2025, the price of the SR2509 contract has oscillated downward, and the basis has risen from a minimum of 173 yuan/ton in early April to a maximum of 327 yuan/ton, being at a relatively high level in the same historical period [5]. - The international and domestic market fundamentals are strong. The international market has a supply shortage in the 24/25 sugar season, and the Brazilian and Indian production situations are not optimistic. The domestic market has tightened import policies and faced drought in the Guangxi production area. The weak expectations come from the global economic recession expectation and the expected increase in production and inventory accumulation in the 25/26 sugar season. The SR2509 contract is priced based on expectations, and as the raw sugar price drops, the futures price moves down, causing the basis to widen [6]. 3.2 The Tug - of - War between Reality and Expectation 3.2.1 SR2505 Contract Pricing Benchmark Situation - The SR2505 contract price shows an "N" - shaped trend, and the basis shows a "W" - shaped trend. Since December 2024, the Nanning spot price has fluctuated, and the SR2505 contract generally follows the spot price. The basis fluctuates between 0 - 250 yuan/ton and shows a "W" - shaped trend. Since the end of April 2025, the basis of the SR2505 contract has strengthened significantly [10]. - The SR2505 contract is priced based on the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan. The Zhengzhou sugar registered warehouse receipts are increasing, and the delivery pressure will be concentrated on the SR2509 contract. The warehouse receipts are mainly from beet sugar and Yunnan sugar [12][14][15]. 3.2.2 SR2509 Contract Pricing Benchmark Situation - The SR2509 contract is priced based on expectations, and the basis fluctuates greatly. It generally follows the spot price, and the basis fluctuates between 100 - 350 yuan/ton. Since its listing, it has been mainly priced based on expectations, and its price is more closely linked to the out - of - quota import cost. The large fluctuation of the basis is mainly contributed by the fluctuation of the futures price [19]. - In the past three sugar seasons, the Zhengzhou sugar September contracts have maintained relatively high bases. The reasons for the high bases of SR2309, SR2409, and SR2509 contracts are different, including factors such as unexpected production reduction in the Northern Hemisphere, large imports of syrup and premixed powder, and the difference between international and domestic market situations [21]. 3.2.3 International and Domestic Market Fundamental Situations - In the 24/25 sugar season, the global sugar supply is short by 547,000 tons. The shortage is at a relatively high historical level, indicating a tight supply situation. The expected production in Brazil and India has decreased [23]. - In the 25/26 sugar season, major institutions generally expect an increase in production and inventory accumulation in the global sugar market, with expected supply surpluses of different magnitudes. The expected production in Brazil and India will increase [25]. - The core of the domestic sugar market trading is still the total import volume and structure. The CAOC data shows that the production and consumption in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar seasons change slightly. Due to tightened policies on syrup and premixed powder imports, the market needs out - of - quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor has shifted to the out - of - quota import cost [26]. 3.3 Pricing Anchor: First Trade on Expectations, Then on Reality - The international market is in a pattern of strong current situation and weak future expectations. The domestic market's pricing anchor has shifted to the out - of - quota import cost [1][28]. - The SR2509 contract first trades based on expectations and then on reality. As it approaches delivery, the pricing anchor will shift from the expectation of a decline in out - of - quota import costs to the reality of a tight domestic spot market supply [2][29].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年05月20日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，SC2507夜盘涨幅达0.56%。上周全球石油库存下降0.9%，二季度以来黑库 幅度0.4%较平衡表表现偏紧。短期原油市场在夏季石油需求面临李节性改善,俄乌和谈、美伊核谈 进程由折等地球局势的支撑下或有震荡偏强表现;但考虑到中期供需宽松压力悬而未决,油价反弹 空间亦不过分乐观,关注布伦特70美元/橘、SC510元/桶压力位。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡,日内波动频繁。近期美国经济数据保持韧性,市场降低对于经济轰迷的扣 注，降息路径仍在博弈。贸易战以及地缘冲突各方均处于谈判阶段，消息纷扰下市场情绪可能不断 摇摇。贵金属仍处于震荡调整阶段,国际金价在3000美元/盎司位置具备较强支撑,维持回调买入 思路。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价震荡收涨,沪铜加权技术阻力仍在7.8-7.85万一线。5月中旬后,国内铜消费有转弱 顾向,SMM社库增至13.92万吨;目前大口径显性库存降至约55万吨、仍略高于年初。昨日上海铜升 水扩至440元,广东铜升水270元,且洋山铜溢价降低到95美元。2507合约7.8万上方空单继 ...

Group 1 - From February 2025, industrial silicon spot and futures prices have begun a new downward trend, with prices falling below 9600 yuan/ton in April due to weak fundamentals and slow destocking [1] - As of the third week of May, the average cost of industrial silicon per ton was 10,479.59 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.69%, with a negative gross profit of 924.49 yuan per ton [2] - In the first quarter of this year, the cumulative production of industrial silicon reached 906,800 tons, a decrease of 7.78 million tons or 7.90% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The demand side lacks growth momentum, with the organic silicon market experiencing continuous price declines and high inventory levels, leading to a reduced operating rate of 69.7% among 16 organic silicon enterprises [4] - The total demand for industrial silicon in the first quarter is estimated at 945,800 tons, a decrease of nearly 250,000 tons compared to last year [2][4] - The overall inventory of industrial silicon and downstream products continues to rise, with industrial silicon futures inventory at 331,900 tons, an increase of 4.90% month-on-month and 25.25% year-on-year [5] Group 3 - The supply pressure in the long term is highlighted by the seasonal production off-peak in Sichuan and Yunnan, with a combined production of 1,026,500 tons in 2024, accounting for 21.84% of the national total [3] - The overall macro drivers for the industrial silicon market are weak, with the pricing logic dominated by fundamentals, and the expected production in May is around 320,000 tons, significantly higher than the 632,000 tons needed for supply-demand balance [6] - The current inventory-to-consumption ratio has risen to 2.42, indicating a significant oversupply situation [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年5月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3615元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月19日，华东不通氧现货价8850元/吨，09合约基差为650元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.9万吨，环比增加0.50%,样本企业库存为247600吨，环比减少6.53%,主要 港口库存为13.2万吨，环比减少0.75%。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 6、预期: 供给端排产有所减少，处于历史平均水平附近，需求复苏处于低位，成本支撑有所上升。 工业硅2509：在8025-8235区间 ...