Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Israel and Iran poses a risk to central banks' move towards lower interest rates, as escalating tensions could disrupt oil production and maintain high inflation levels [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Market Impact - Israel's recent attacks on Iran have raised concerns among investors about the potential for long-term conflict and its implications for oil production [1] - The possibility of rising oil prices could complicate the interest rate reduction cycles of major global central banks [1] Economic Implications - The ongoing tensions may lead to sustained inflationary pressures, which would hinder the ability of central banks to lower interest rates as planned [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone economy showed strong performance in Q1 2025, with GDP growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q4 2022 [1][2] - Eurozone GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year, while the EU overall grew by 1.6%, with Ireland recording the highest growth rate at 9.7% [1][2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to pause its interest rate cuts in July, as indicated by ECB President Lagarde, with analysts predicting the last rate cut may occur in September [2] Group 2 - Final household consumption expenditure in the Eurozone and EU grew by only 0.2%, indicating a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2] - Investment in fixed capital formation saw a robust growth of 1.8% in both the Eurozone and EU, significantly higher than the previous quarter [2] - The ECB has not made significant adjustments to its macroeconomic forecasts, projecting real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027, with inflation expected to average 2.0% in 2025 [2]

Macro Environment - The macro environment is characterized by intensified trade frictions and a continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, with a focus on changes in tariff policies [3][5][12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates in July 2023 and is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points by May 2025, maintaining a high rate level [9][10] Precious Metals - The financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to shine, with gold prices projected to rise due to weakened dollar reserve credit and increasing global central bank diversification of reserve assets [3][5][30] - Silver, which has lagged behind gold, is anticipated to experience strong demand for a rebound, with a focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and others [3][5][38] Base Metals - The base metal sector is expected to see a shift in weak expectations, with aluminum production nearing capacity limits and demand from new energy and power sectors offsetting declines in real estate demand [3][5][60] - Copper supply shortages are expected to persist, with a favorable outlook for price recovery following interest rate cuts [3][5][77] Minor Metals - The minor metals sector is witnessing a bottoming cycle with positive changes emerging, particularly in strategic minor metals like rare earths and tungsten, as well as a rebound in cobalt prices due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][5][98][99] - Lithium prices are declining, and high-cost production is expected to accelerate exit from the market, while nickel supply disruptions are anticipated [3][5][60]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth rate cut since June of the previous year, with current rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% for deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates respectively [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The ECB's recent rate cut aligns with market expectations and signals a potential pause in the current easing cycle, depending on future economic data [1][6] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the current monetary policy cycle is entering a new phase, with future rate movements contingent on economic performance [1][5] - Following the announcement, market expectations for further rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 30% to around 20% [1][6] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Eurozone inflation has eased, with the May harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 1.9%, below the ECB's 2% target for the first time in eight months, aided by falling energy prices and a stronger euro [2][3] - Economic growth remains weak, with GDP growth of 0.4% in Q1 2025 driven mainly by temporary export effects from Germany and Spain, while service sector activity is contracting [3][6] - Geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes contribute to economic uncertainty, prompting the ECB to consider further rate cuts to mitigate external shocks [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts, projecting an average inflation rate of 2.0% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause rate cuts in July, with the next meeting in September potentially being the last opportunity for a cut, depending on economic conditions and inflation trends [6][7] - The market anticipates a limited further rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, followed by a period of observation [6][7]

欧洲央行管委森特诺：货币政策正处于降息周期。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，爱沙尼亚央行行长、欧洲央行管理委员会成员马迪斯·穆勒表示，该行正接近本轮 降息周期的尾声，而另一位同僚则宣称通胀已被战胜。欧洲央行于当地时间6月5日宣布下调存款利率25 个基点至2%，符合市场普遍预期。 就在欧洲央行宣布一年内第八次降息的次日，穆勒在接受采访时表示："拉加德行长昨日的总结很精辟 ——我们可能已基本完成本轮降息周期。至于未来走势，目前还没有人能给出确切答案。" 周四的货币政策会议决定将存款利率下调至2%，使本轮累计降息幅度达到200个基点。据知情人士透 露，决策层目前考虑在7月暂停行动，部分官员甚至认为始于2024年6月的宽松周期已经终结。 由于美国总统特朗普的贸易政策影响，通胀前景仍存在高度不确定性。欧洲央行在发布新季度预测时， 同步呈现了温和与严峻两种情景，突显极端不可预测性。 法国央行行长弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德加洛则对消费者价格走势给出更乐观解读，甚至宣称欧洲央行已完 成使命。 "我们打赢了抗击通胀的战役，"他表示，"法国通胀率现已低于1%，欧洲整体为1.9%，我们预测今年将 达2%。" 维勒鲁瓦指出，与美国不同，欧元区尚未出现关税引发的价格效应。 他分析道，"加征关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is satisfied with the current inflation levels and agrees with President Lagarde that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Müller expresses contentment with current inflation levels [1] - Müller aligns with Lagarde's perspective on the nearing conclusion of the interest rate cut cycle [1]

Economic Growth Overview - Australia's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, showing a decline from the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [1] - Per capita GDP experienced a negative growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, contrasting with a 0.1% growth in the previous quarter [1] Factors Affecting Economic Performance - Public sector spending has significantly dragged down economic growth, reaching the highest level of detriment since Q3 2017 [1] - Extreme weather events have suppressed domestic final demand and exports, particularly impacting the mining, tourism, and shipping industries [1][2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption increased by 0.4%, driven mainly by spending on essential items such as food and rent [1] - Private sector investment rose by 0.7%, primarily from residential, new construction, and engineering projects, while public sector investment fell by 2% after reaching a record high in the previous quarter [1] Savings and Income - The household savings rate increased to 5.2%, with disposable income growing by 2.4% [1] Export Challenges - Commodity exports, particularly coal and liquefied natural gas, were negatively impacted by adverse weather affecting production and shipping [2] - The tourism services sector underperformed, with international student numbers growing below average and a decline in per capita spending by students [2] Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that despite the impact of extreme weather, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, with low consumer spending and business investment [2] - There is a call for more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy, with potential early initiation of a rate cut cycle if the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledges the trends of economic slowdown and declining inflation [2]

拉加德暗示降息周期已近尾声 市场不再完全定价年内再降息25BP 金十数据6月5日讯，交易员削减了对欧洲央行未来降息的押注，并不再完全定价今年再降息25个基点的 预期。货币市场对12月前进一步降息的预期一度仅为23个基点，而在欧洲央行周四利率决定之前，市场 预期为32个基点。短期债券领跌，两年期德国国债收益率一度上涨7个基点，至1.87%。此前，欧洲央 行行长拉加德表示，央行的降息周期已接近尾声。 ...

同传直播 欧洲央行如期再次下调利率，降息周期已接近尾声？行长拉加德正召开新闻发布会，马上围观同传直 播... 相关链接 ...