Group 1: Export Performance - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[3] - The significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1% contributed to a total export increase of 1.3 percentage points[4] - The rebound in exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong regions contributed an additional 0.8 percentage points to overall export growth in June[4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Growth - The temporary suspension of tariffs since May has positively impacted export orders, with the SCFI index reflecting a significant rise in shipping rates[3] - The depreciation of the RMB against the Euro and the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have supported resilient export performance to the EU[4] - Exports measured in RMB showed a stronger performance with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in June, compared to the dollar-denominated figures[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of external demand remains a critical variable, with concerns about the U.S. demand's capacity for further growth[5] - High-frequency indicators suggest a decline in export momentum, with noticeable drops in port cargo volumes and container shipping rates to the U.S. in early July[5] - Risks include potential policy changes, unexpected shifts in domestic economic conditions, and unforeseen fluctuations in export dynamics[7]

2025 年 7 月 14 日 宏观情绪影响 钢价延续偏强 钢材周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：7月9日，在国新办发布会上，国家发改委相关 负责人表示，2025年中国GDP规模预计在140万亿元左 右。下一步将坚持适度超前、不过度超前的原则，持续 固根基、扬优势、补短板、强弱项，推进现代化基础设 施体系不断迈上更高台阶。国务院办公厅印发《关于进 一步加大稳就业政策支持力度的通知 ...

交易员加大对英国央行的降息预期，预计今年还将降息58个基点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short - term, and lay out short positions in the medium - term [1][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short - term [10][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short - term [14][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. For rebar, production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, and total inventory has slightly decreased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have slightly declined month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: On the fundamental side, the demand - side hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply - side shipping rush is over, but arrivals are still increasing. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Short - term market sentiment has improved [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved [1][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost loosening. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, the cost line has moved down, factory inventory is relatively high, and the difficulty of de - stocking has increased [1][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - **Price Range**: [3110, 3150] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current trading logic has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic. The market is bullish under the background of basis repair [1][5]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Range**: [3250, 3290] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas. The market is bullish under sentiment and expectation trading [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Range**: [750, 780] [1] - **Market Situation**: Short - term participation within the range, and medium - term short - position layout [1][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term, with the market oscillating strongly [1][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Range**: [910, 935] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term [1][17] 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - **Price Range**: [5650, 5840] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][20] 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - **Price Range**: [5365, 5555] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within the range [1][20]

| 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 7月10日 | 7月11日 | 7 10日 | 7月11日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 70.36 | 68.64 | 1.72 | 2.5% | POY150/48价格 | 0 | 0.0% | 布伦特原油(9月) | 6645 | 6645 | 美元/桶 | 1.88 | 2.8% | FDY150/96价格 | 0 | WTI原油(8月) | 68.45 | 66.57 | 6955 | 0.0% | 6955 | | | -7 | 0 | CFR日本石脑油 | -1.2% | DTY150/48价格 | 7910 | 0.0% | 591 | 7910 | 584 | -5 | -7 | 美元/吨 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 2025.7.14 久期轮动策略创新及债券ETF组合应用 ——利率择时策略研究系列之四 主要内容 风险提示：模型计算可能存在误差，指标选取可能不够全面，历史回测不代表未来 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 2018年以来，债券ETF快速发展，数量、规模、种类渐趋完善，已经成为重要的固收资产配置工具。 • 作为久期频谱覆盖较为完善的场内固收标的，可以用于改善固收组合收益表现。 ◼ 从久期轮动角度出发，我们挖掘了国债期货隐含利率的信号价值，用于久期配置和债券ETF组合。 • 与通常认知有所差异的是，一般情况下，期货价格本身实际上并不能代表未来现货价格的预期。 • 我们基于衍生品定价逻辑推导了债券收益率的预期差，探讨预期利率影响债券市场的可能逻辑链条，并在此基础上设 计了久期轮动策略。 ◼ 久期轮动策略应用到债券指数的回测表明，指数组合表现优于比较基准。 • 稳健权重组合的年化收益可以超过比较基准 29 bps。 • 积极权重组合的年化收益可以超过比较基准 60 bps。 • 多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. Shanghai Silver futures are in a sideways trend, also at the end of the trend. For both gold and silver, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices of gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as trade policies, the US dollar index, and industrial demand [7][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: US tariff policies have raised concerns about global economic recession and supply chain disruptions, increasing gold's safe - haven demand. Although the rising US dollar index suppresses gold prices, the strong demand for gold shows concerns about the US dollar's credit. The overall inflow of funds into gold ETFs is still strong, and central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, have continuously increased their gold holdings. The reduced expectation of a July interest rate cut and the increased expectation of a September cut also support gold prices [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct grid trading in the range of 760 - 782 [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21]. Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is sideways, currently at the end of the trend [30]. - Trend judgment logic: The increase in trade concerns last week boosted silver's safe - haven demand. The repair logic of the gold - silver ratio, the weakening US dollar index, and geopolitical tensions support silver from a financial perspective. The continuous growth of silver demand in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries strengthens its fundamentals. However, the industrial nature of silver may limit its price increase if the risk of global economic recession intensifies [30]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8800 - 8900 [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report shows data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver's internal - external price difference [39][41][43].

美联储公布的6月会议纪要显示，19位政策制定者中仅有少数支持本月降息，多数官员对特朗普贸易关 税可能带来的通胀压力表示担忧。尽管特朗普多次要求立即降息并呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，但会议 纪要表明决策者在降息问题上分歧明显。目前市场有关于鲍威尔可能被迫辞职的传言愈演愈烈。 【技术分析】 现货黄金(伦敦金)：从形态结构看,黄金近期低点不断抬高，沿着上涨趋势线不断震荡向上，走出标准上 涨趋势浪节奏。周五晚间多头再次强势发力突破关键压力位3345.0，进一步打开多头上涨空间，后市继 续看多头延续行情。综合MACD指标看，快慢线0轴上方运行，表明多头力量主导行情走势。 摘要7月14日亚市尾盘，贵金属市场呈现显著分化格局。现货黄金小幅攀升至3373.69美元/盎司上方维 持震荡，而现货白银则强势突破39美元/盎司关键位，刷新2011年9月以来逾12年高位，年内累计涨幅已 扩大至35%。市场聚焦即将公布的对俄政策声明，据白宫日程安排，特朗普将于今日就俄罗斯问题发 布"重要声明"，预计涉及新制裁措施。值得注意的是，尽管避险需求持续支撑贵金属估值，但技术面出 现微妙变化——黄金在3370美元附近承压明显，显示短期追高风险偏好下 ...

宏观 市场分析：IEA 上调 2025 年全球石油供应增长预期至 210 万桶/日。同时 OPEC+7 月会议或 将加大增产力度，因此原油价格处于相对弱势，反弹高度有限，整体中长期价格重心下移。 但基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，一定程度上托底油价，密切关注大美法案对美国经济 的影响。关注后续中东局势发展、大美法案、美国传统旺季夏季需求，美元指数走势以及 OPEC+7 月会议情况。 参考观点：WTI 主力关注背靠 65 美元/桶附近开启反弹。 黄金 宏观与地缘：美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储可以考虑 7 月进行降息，应考虑将联储持有资产 更多地转向短期国债；美联储戴利表示，今年很可能降息两次，政策前景存在很大的不确定 性。地缘上，中东局势紧张推升避险需求；货币政策上，市场押注 9 月降息概率达 65.4%， 但 7 月按兵不动预期仍占 92.8%，多空因素交织令金价短期承压。美国财政赤字和特朗普关 税威胁加剧通胀担忧，贵金属价格震荡运行。 宏观：国内政策端聚焦中游制造和反内卷措施，中央财经委会议聚焦"治理低价无序竞争"， 光伏、新能源汽车等行业供给侧改革预期升温，龙头股估值修复。特朗普宣布关税延至 8 月 1 日 ...

摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：关税豁免到期，发达市场多数下跌 发达市场多数下跌，美债利率快速回升。 当周，标普500下跌0.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.0%；10Y美债 收益率上行8bp至4.4%；美元指数上涨0.9%至97.87，离岸人民币贬值至7.1736；WTI原油上涨2.9%至68.5 美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨0.8%至3359.8美元/盎司。 关税豁免到期，美国提高关税税率。 7月7日，美国宣布提升14国关税，生效日期为8月1日，包括日本 25%、韩国25%、南非30%等。7月9日，美国另行发函七国，包括：阿尔及利亚30%；伊拉克30%等。此 外，特朗普表示自8月1日起，对进口铜产品征收50%关税。 6月纪要显示联储官员观点分化，欧元区5月零售销售降温。 6月联储会议纪要显示，部分官员认为关税 将会导致一次性价格上涨，但多数与会者认为关税可能会对通胀产生更持久的影响。5月欧元区零售销售 量环比-0.7%，较4月回落，欧洲居民消费者信心低迷仍是经济掣肘。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；国内政策变化超预期。 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：关税豁免到期，发达市场多数下跌 ...