每经编辑｜彭水萍 近期，半年报业绩预告持续披露，受市场环境影响，煤炭、焦炭价格整体下行，煤炭企业利润承压。受利润下探影响，煤炭板块回调，煤炭 ETF（515220）年初至今跌超10%。"反内卷"背景下，煤炭板块预期向好，煤炭ETF（515220）持续吸金，连续5日净流入额超14亿元，当前规 模近60亿元。 1、"反内卷"预期升温，煤炭供需或改善 近日，中国煤炭运销协会召开上半年煤炭经济运行分析座谈会。会议强调，加强行业自律，整治内卷式竞争，促进煤炭市场供需平衡。 国家发改委2024年提出"反内卷"指导方针，要求传统行业避免低价倾销、重复建设。煤炭行业作为能源安全"压舱石"，2025年将重点整治合同 违约、供给过剩等乱象。 机构分析指出，行业自律将减少市场煤价波动，5500大卡动力煤长协价有望维持在700元-750元/吨区间；同时，淘汰落后产能可提升头部企业 市占率，前5大煤企利润占比或从2024年的42%升至2025年的48%。 2、历史供给侧改革期，煤炭行情占优 （1）2016年"供给侧改革"：煤炭较沪深300超额近10% 2016年2月，国务院发布《关于煤炭行业化解过剩产能实现脱困发展的意见》，煤炭行业供 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月16日08时17分 报告导读： 二季度及上半年经济数据公布，房地产方面的数据仍偏弱，显示目前该行业仍处于震荡筑底的过程中 。另外，中央城市工作会议在京举行，并无上 周传闻的所谓的重磅利多。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹产量有所下降，厂库回升，社库继续下降，总库存继续下降，表观需求 环比有所回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会小幅回升 。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 ，但是强预期主要是"反内卷"可能带来的新一轮供给侧改革，对政策的乐观预期也有所加强。从技 术上看，期价脉冲式上涨后遇阻，上方有前期的跳空缺口以及年线等的压制 。 操作建议： 维持观望 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 239.8 万吨，环比上周下降 1.0 万吨。随着下游消费高峰期结束以及钢 厂的限产，预计近期铁水产量将进一步回落 。 ...

21世纪经济报道特约记者庞华玮 广州报道 最近一个月，A股"反内卷"主题行情火了，钢铁、光伏、建材等板块全面爆发。 Wind数据显示，最近18个交易日（6月20日至7月15日），申万一级行业指数中的钢铁、建筑材料、电 力设备等行业涨幅均超过8%。 机构认为，反内卷成为当前热议的主题，十年前供给收缩带来超额利润的场景有望再一次重演。随 着"反内卷"扩散至各行各业，"反内卷"主题有望持续演绎，成为接下来一段时间的主线。其中，光伏、 汽车、钢铁等行业备受关注。 但机构指出，"反内卷"行情可能分为三阶段：第一阶段政策催化下的预期阶段，第二阶段定价资源品价 格上涨，第三阶段定价资源品高价横住的时间。综合来看，目前"反内卷"行情尚在第一阶段的预期阶 段，后续仍需观察政策落地和产能出清情况，如果没有真实的出清，行情可能不会有后续两个阶段。 行情启动 最近一个月，"反内卷"成为市场焦点。中央财经委第六次会议于7月1日召开，会议强调，纵深推进全国 统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落 后产能有序退出。 "反内卷"行情启动。最具代表性的是，时隔4年，光伏产业链重新站到市场C位 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [2] Core Insights - The current environment in the coal industry is characterized by high operating rates leading to "involution" competition, rather than the previous "supply-side" overcapacity scenario. The focus should be on controlling operating rates to mitigate this competition [1][27] - In 2016, national coal production capacity was approximately 5.73 billion tons, with a production of 3.41 billion tons, indicating low capacity utilization. By 2022, production capacity exceeded 4.4 billion tons, with production reaching 4.55 billion tons, and is projected to reach 4.76 billion tons by 2024, suggesting excessively high operating rates [1][19] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Context - The coal supply-side reform initiated in 2015 aimed to eliminate around 500 million tons of capacity over 3 to 5 years, with significant reductions in the number of coal mines and improvements in safety and market pricing mechanisms [8][9][10] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - The coal industry is currently facing a situation where high operating rates are leading to price competition, which is different from the previous overcapacity issues. The focus should be on managing these operating rates to stabilize the market [1][27] 3. Future Outlook - The report suggests that unlike the petrochemical industry, which may focus on eliminating refining capacity, the coal industry should prioritize controlling operating rates to address the current competitive pressures [1][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, on July 15, 2025, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend. The weekly data indicated that the apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, production followed the decline in demand, and inventory remained stable. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply remains abundant, lacking strong price - driving forces. Currently, the low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, but the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. For operation, observe whether the current prices of rebar at 3100 and hot - rolled coils at 3300 can be effectively broken through, and if so, focus on the next pressure levels of 3220 (rebar) and 3350 (hot - rolled coils) [1]. - For the iron ore industry, on July 14, 2025, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. The demand side was affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, with molten iron production declining from its peak. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and short - term molten iron shows resilience. In the future, molten iron production in July is expected to continue to decline, and steel mill profits will improve. Short - term iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [4]. - For the coke industry, on July 14, 2025, the coke futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations improved. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented later. The supply side may face difficulties in increasing production due to enterprise losses, and the demand side is affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, with molten iron production reaching a peak and starting to decline. The inventory is at a medium level, and downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is beneficial for future price increases. It is recommended to conduct hedging for the coke 2601 contract on rallies, buy on dips for the coke 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. - For the coking coal industry, on July 14, 2025, the coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall coal mine production recovered slowly, remaining in short supply. Imported coal showed different trends, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal prices rising. The demand side saw a slight decline in coking and blast furnace operations, but the downstream restocking intensity increased. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to buy on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210, 3190, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176, 3138, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4, 5, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3200, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287, 3276, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6, 3, and 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1]. - The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 160, 130, and 270 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 27, 1, and 47 yuan. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240, 150, and 230 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 17, 17, and 7 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons (- 0.5%) compared to the previous value. The production of five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons (- 1.4%) [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons (0.0%); the rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons (- 0.9%); the hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons (0.2%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons (5.0%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons (- 1.4%); the apparent demand for rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons (- 1.5%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2, 794.2, 804.0, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2 yuan/ton. The 09 - contract basis of these four types of iron ore decreased significantly, with decreases of - 47.3 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton (- 4.3%); the 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton (9.1%); the 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.6%) [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons (7.2%); the global weekly shipment volume was 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons (- 0.3%); the national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons (- 0.4%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons (0.1%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 56.8 tons (- 0.4%) compared to Monday of the previous week; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons (0.7%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 days (5.3%) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of coke 09 and 01 contracts were 1526 and 1569 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 119 and - 163 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.6%) [6]. - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons (- 8.84%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons (4.7%) [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0 and 5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal 09 and 01 contracts were 920 and 938 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7 and 18 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 26 and - 70 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 2 and 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons (0.34%); the weekly clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (0.34%) [6]. - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons (- 7.5%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons (5.24%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons (- 0.8%); the port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].

Economic Growth and Indicators - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is reported at 5.3%, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% and fixed asset investment rising by 2.8% [1] - Social retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in June [1] - The total social financing scale reached 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1] Urbanization and Structural Changes - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the need for integrated planning in population, industry, and urban development, transitioning from rapid growth to stable development [2] - The focus is on improving public services and developing a new model for real estate, particularly in urban villages and dilapidated housing [2] Consumption and Investment Dynamics - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating that domestic demand, especially consumption, is the main driver of GDP growth [3] - Investment growth has been volatile, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 2.8%, largely due to a significant decline in real estate investment [5][6] - Private investment decreased by 0.6%, but other sectors excluding real estate saw a 5.1% increase [6] Price Trends and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.1% in June, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% [7][8] - The CPI's marginal recovery is attributed to stable industrial consumer goods prices and a relatively stable service price environment [9] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Traditional industries are facing downward pressure on prices due to overcapacity and low-price competition, particularly in sectors like cement and steel [10][11] - The "anti-involution" strategy aims to address structural issues in supply and demand, promoting orderly exit of outdated capacities [11] - New growth drivers are emerging, but their impact is currently limited, necessitating a transition period for traditional industries [12]

Group 1: Solar Industry - The solar industry is experiencing a dual bottom in fundamentals and market sentiment, with expectations for supply-side reforms strengthening [9][11]. - In Q2, domestic solar installations are expected to increase significantly, driven by a surge in demand, with a total of 197.9 GW added in the first five months of 2025, representing a 150% year-on-year growth [15][19]. - The profitability across different segments of the solar supply chain is expected to diverge, with silicon material prices under pressure while silicon wafers, cells, and modules benefit from price increases due to demand [13][14]. Group 2: Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is seeing a significant increase in shipments, with domestic large-scale storage demand recovering, and overall profitability remaining stable [39][44]. - In the first five months of 2025, global energy storage battery shipments reached 196.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 118%, driven by domestic demand and favorable tariff conditions [54][60]. - The domestic energy storage market is expected to maintain high growth, with cumulative installations reaching 13.4 GW/32.1 GWh in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a 57% year-on-year increase [54][55]. Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent government policies are focused on addressing "involution" in competition, with measures aimed at balancing supply and demand and promoting industry self-discipline [32][34]. - The solar and energy storage sectors are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, which is anticipated to enhance market stability and encourage technological advancements [38][36]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring industry price trends, component production rates, and the timing of supply-side policy announcements as key indicators for investment opportunities [38].

Group 1: Historical Context and Comparison - The supply-side reform from 2015 to 2017 successfully reduced excess capacity in industries like coal, steel, and aluminum, leading to a significant rebound in PPI from an average of -10.5% in 2015 to a peak of 21.5% in March 2017[2] - During the same period, the profit margin in affected industries improved from a low of 2.4% in 2015 to 6.6% in early 2017, with nominal GDP growth rising from 6.6% in Q4 2015 to 11.8% in Q1 2017[2][11] - The current "anti-involution" initiative targets industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, cement, and steel, contrasting with the previous focus on upstream traditional sectors like coal and steel[2][4] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Challenges - The industries involved in the current "anti-involution" have a higher concentration, with leading firms in photovoltaics and automobiles holding a market share of approximately 67%, compared to 34% and 36% for coal and steel during the previous reform[3][57] - The current environment features a lower proportion of state-owned enterprises and a higher presence of private firms (60-90%) compared to the previous reform period (50-70%)[3][4] - The effectiveness of capacity reduction in the current initiative may be hampered by the relatively new capacity in the steel sector and varying profitability across industries[3][4] Group 3: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" is expected to have a milder impact on PPI compared to the supply-side reform due to differences in demand-side policies and macroeconomic conditions, with current policies primarily aimed at stabilizing the economy[4][5] - Industries with high concentration and poor profitability, such as the upstream segment of photovoltaics, may see stronger capacity reduction incentives, while more profitable sectors could face resistance[4][5] - Historical data suggests that aligning "anti-involution" policies with demand-boosting measures could enhance effectiveness, as seen in the previous reform period[5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [6] - Protein Meal: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [7] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating and declining [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [15] - Cotton: Oscillating [15] - Sugar: Oscillating in the short - term, oscillating and bearish in the long - term [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Logs: Oscillating and bearish [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities. It points out that the end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, which will boost the sentiment for long - positions in protein meal. The prices of different agricultural products are affected by various factors such as international trade policies, weather conditions, supply and demand relationships, and macro - economic environments. Different commodities show different trends in the short and long terms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil leading the rise. It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [6]. - **Logic**: Tensions in US foreign trade and good weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a decline in US soybeans on Friday, while US soybean oil was oscillating and bullish. Domestically, the three major oils were oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil being bullish. Macro - environment factors include the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of crude oil prices. The USDA July report was relatively neutral. Overseas biodiesel demand for oils is expected to be optimistic, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. Palm oil is in the production - increasing season, with expected increases in both production and exports. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import situation needs attention [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: The end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, boosting market sentiment for long - positions. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are growing well, but Sino - US trade frictions affect exports. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. CFTC net long positions are decreasing. Domestically, changes in tariff exemptions have hindered the import of granular meal. Supply pressure dominates the weak spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. Soybean arrivals are increasing, and downstream replenishment is insufficient. In the long - run, fourth - quarter purchases are slow, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing, indicating stable or increasing demand for soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels. Unilateral long - positions can be established at around 2900 [2]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Traders are actively selling, and market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Friday night. In the spot market, trading is active, and some deep - processing plants in the Northeast and North China have lowered their purchase prices. The cumulative auction of imported corn has a certain turnover rate. In the annual structure, imports are expected to decline, but the supply is supplemented by wheat and imported corn, and the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, resulting in weak market sentiment [9]. Live Pigs - **View**: Normal slaughtering in the middle of the month, with prices fluctuating slightly. It is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and is rising. The planned slaughter volume in July is decreasing, and the supply pressure is temporarily low. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, indicating potential growth in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The ratio of pork to feed is increasing, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market is affected by macro - regulation signals, but the sustainability is questionable. In the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure from sows and weight [10]. - **Outlook**: The expectation of supply - side reform boosts the sentiment of live - pig futures. The industry has completed a small - scale weight - reduction, and the inventory pressure of large farms has been released, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Macro - sentiment supports rubber prices. It is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Logic**: The trading logic of natural rubber follows macro - sentiment. After a previous rally in some commodities, rubber, with relatively low valuation, was favored by funds. Currently, the market is in a strong - expectation atmosphere, and the fundamentals are stable. Supply is limited due to rain in Asian producing areas, and demand from tire enterprises has recovered [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market is oscillating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: After a sharp rally last week, it returned to an oscillating state yesterday, supported by macro - factors and improved trading of butadiene. The fundamentals of butadiene have improved, with increased demand and limited supply, which also boosts the synthetic rubber market [15]. Cotton - **View**: Low inventory versus weak demand, resulting in a stalemate in cotton prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Logic**: The USDA July report was bearish, with an increase in the expected global cotton production in the 25/26 season. Demand is in the off - season, with a decline in textile mill operations and an increase in finished - product inventory. The cotton - yarn price spread is narrowing. Current commercial inventory is low, making cotton prices resistant to decline but difficult to rise. In the medium - term, new - crop production is expected to increase, suppressing the upside of the futures price [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. Sugar - **View**: Inventory is low, but subsequent imports are expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increases expected in major producing countries. In the short - term, Brazil's sugar production and cane crushing are lower than last year, and China's sugar sales rate is high, with low industrial inventory, supporting sugar prices. However, Brazil will enter the peak production and export season, and China's imports will increase [16]. - **Outlook**: In the long - run, sugar prices are expected to decline due to expected supply surplus. In the short - run, there are few bullish factors, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [16]. Pulp - **View**: Macro - factors dominate the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, pulp futures rose following the macro - environment. The supply and demand are weak, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - environment. The US dollar price is declining, overseas pulp mill inventory is high, and downstream paper is in the off - season. The futures price is relatively low, providing some support. In the medium - term, if there is inventory accumulation, pulp prices may rise in a wave - like pattern, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5150 - 5400, and the 01 contract between 5200 - 5500. Bilateral trading within the range is recommended [17]. Logs - **View**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [18]. - **Logic**: The first - month delivery of logs is ongoing, and the inflow of delivery goods into the spot market has put pressure on prices. Both sellers and buyers face increased costs. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction pace is slow. New foreign quotes have increased, but the willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom is strong. The supply reduction is expected to weaken, and the spot market is at the bottom - building stage [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polysilicon [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Logs [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Corn, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Views - In the short term, liquidity and market sentiment are acceptable, but there are few substantial positive factors at home and abroad. With the recent significant reduction in the discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Market uncertainties remain. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term, and silver prices should be wary of the risk of a fall after a rise [1]. - The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a re - flow of copper from non - US regions, posing a risk of compensatory decline in Shanghai and London copper prices [1]. - High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, while low inventories support aluminum prices, resulting in a weak oscillating trend [1]. - Domestic anti - involution policies boost the expectation of supply - side reform, leading to a stable recovery in alumina prices [1]. - Tariff disturbances are intensifying, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals continues to pressure zinc prices. Attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - With macro uncertainties remaining, nickel prices are oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - For stainless steel futures, it is advisable to focus on short - term trading, sell on rallies for hedging, and seize the opportunity of positive basis trading. Pay attention to raw material changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - The macro pricing of tin prices has increased, but the short - term fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Attention should be paid to the subsequent meeting of the Manxiang mining area [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply shows a pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south. The demand for polysilicon has increased marginally, but there are expectations of production cuts later. The market sentiment is high [1]. - For polysilicon, there are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and the market sentiment is high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has not cut production, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the strong performance of furnace materials provides valuation support, but the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are showing marginal weakness [1]. - For iron ore, short - term production has increased, demand is acceptable, supply and demand are relatively loose, and cost support is insufficient, so prices are under pressure [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the market sentiment has improved. In the short term, supply is stable, demand is resilient, and inventory is being depleted, providing price support. However, in the medium term, supply - demand surplus makes it difficult for prices to rise [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is expected to increase, direct and terminal demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is advisable to focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. - For palm oil and rapeseed oil, relevant reports are neutral to bearish, and short - term oscillations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil, and rapeseed oil is bearish due to the expected entry of Australian rapeseed [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate, so domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - For sugar, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - For corn, there are many short - term policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction volume and transaction price of imported corn and whether the aged rice auction will be implemented. The low wheat - corn price difference suppresses the upward space of corn prices [1]. - For soybean meal, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure continues to pressure the spot basis, which is expected to oscillate at a low level. The downside space of the US market is limited, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be firm. It is advisable to buy on dips [1]. - For pulp, after the macro - level positive factors, the price has risen, but the spot price has not followed up significantly, so it is not recommended to chase up [1]. - For live pigs, with the continuous recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing. The futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient inventory and a large discount to the spot price. The short - term spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the futures price remains stable [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led the market to return to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term strong consumption in the peak season in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and the inventory has increased slightly [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and some butadiene units are under maintenance with limited ship - cargo supply, providing certain support [1]. - For PTA, the supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the spot market is becoming more abundant. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the coal price has risen slightly, the future arrival volume is large, but the overseas supply has shrunk, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1]. - For short - fiber, the number of registered warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factory maintenance has increased. Under the high basis, the cost is closely correlated [1]. - For styrene, the pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load has recovered, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - For fertilizer, domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the export expectation is improving in the second half of the year [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is good, there are many maintenance activities, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For PVC, the price of coking coal has risen, the market sentiment is good, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For chlor - alkali, the maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the liquid - chlorine price has rebounded, the comprehensive profit has been repaired, and the number of current warehouse receipts is small. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - For LPG, the crude - oil support is insufficient, the combustion and chemical demand are in the seasonal off - season, the spot price is oscillating downward, and the PG price is oscillating narrowly [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, there is a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation. It is expected that the freight rate will peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks' shipping capacity deployment is relatively sufficient [1]