Group 1 - The bond market continued to show strength on July 1, with most government bond futures closing higher and interbank bond yields slightly declining, indicating a generally favorable environment for bonds in the second half of the year [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan for the day, reflecting a significant drop in funding rates at the beginning of the month [5][1] - The issuance of special government bonds is expected to be completed in July, with an estimated issuance scale of around 2 trillion yuan, leading to a net financing scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, which is relatively low for the year [6][1] Group 2 - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down by 2.87 basis points to 3.717%, indicating a trend of declining yields [3] - The Asian market saw mixed results, with Japanese 10-year bond yields decreasing by 0.7 basis points to 1.426%, while shorter-term yields increased slightly [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, reflecting a divergence in bond market trends across regions [3] Group 3 - The China Securities Index for convertible bonds rose by 0.48%, with significant trading volume of 62.777 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment in the convertible bond market [2] - The issuance of Panda bonds has significantly increased since the end of 2022, with total issuance surpassing 1 trillion yuan, although foreign investment in these bonds remains limited [7] - The PMI data has shown signs of recovery, but the overall demand outlook remains weak, suggesting that while the fundamentals are supportive for the bond market, caution is warranted due to potential volatility [7]

Group 1 - The international gold price rebounded on June 30, closing above $3,300 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar [1] - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 rose by $28.9 to $3,315 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - Despite a rise in US stock indices, the US dollar index fell by 0.54% to 96.875, providing additional upward momentum for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold prices reached a one-month low of $3,250.5 during early electronic trading, indicating volatility in the market [2] - The overall performance of gold in June showed a slight increase of 0.06% compared to the end of May, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed [2] - Analysts suggest that central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and loose monetary policies will continue to support the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September rose by 16.5 cents to $36.330 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.46% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is increasingly focusing on the bond market, particularly on the changes in long-term yields, as it navigates a shift from a bull market to a more volatile environment in 2025 [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [1][6][7]. - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized the need to enhance the guidance of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of market interest rates [3][7]. - Analysts predict that while bond yields are likely to trend downward, a significant unilateral decline is unlikely due to external risks and the need for economic stability [6][8]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the bond market experienced significant volatility, with long-term yields initially rising before declining, influenced by changes in central bank attitudes and liquidity conditions [4][5]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated from approximately 1.6% to 1.9% in early 2025, reflecting a cautious liquidity stance from the central bank [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, major interbank bond yields showed slight increases, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts foresee that the bond market will continue to experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to remain within the range of 1.5% to 1.8% [6][7]. - The market is particularly attentive to the timing of potential RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, which could influence bond market volatility [7][8]. - The overall expectation is that the bond market will not replicate the previous year's bull run, but rather remain in a state of oscillation due to various economic pressures [6][8].

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) has seen a recent decline of 0.46%, with the latest price at 112.15 yuan as of June 30, 2025. However, it has accumulated a rise of 0.48% over the past two weeks as of June 27, 2025 [3] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 26.51% and a transaction value of 1.922 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past week was 2.827 billion yuan [3] - Western Securities estimates that the net financing scale of government bonds in the third quarter will reach approximately 4.2 trillion yuan, but will drop to 1.4 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter. This suggests potential incremental policy measures may be introduced [3] Group 2 - As of June 27, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.09% over the past year, ranking 4th out of 411 index bond funds, placing it in the top 0.97% [4] - The fund has demonstrated strong performance metrics, including a maximum monthly return of 5.35% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a total gain of 10.58%. The average monthly return during rising months is 2.20% [4] - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05%. The tracking error over the past month is 0.049% [4]

Group 1 - The ten-year government bond is influenced primarily by policy interest rates and economic cycles, benefiting from the current downward trend in interest rates [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by a structural transformation, with the economy gradually moving from a peak in 2021 to a bottoming phase, indicating weak demand [1] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for further easing signals, which is favorable for bond assets, particularly in the third quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) is the only product tracking the Shanghai Composite Ten-Year Government Bond Index, consisting of bonds with maturities between seven to ten years [2] - The credit rating of government bonds is high, resulting in relatively low default risk, and the ETF's holdings are transparent, minimizing style drift risk [2] - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) supports T+0 trading, enhancing liquidity for investors [2]

市场主流观点汇总 2025/6/24 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/20 | | 2025/6/16 | 至 2025/6/20 | | | | 原油 | 566.60 | 原油 | | | 8.82% | | | 甲醇 | 2529.00 | 甲醇 | | 5.86% | | | | 棕榈油 | 8536.00 | 棕榈油 | | 4.86% | | | | PTA | 4978.00 | PTA | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation in trends, with government bond futures mostly declining, while interbank cash bond yields have turned downward, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics due to continued monetary policy easing by the central bank [1][7]. Market Trends - On June 23, government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 121.290, and the 10-year main contract down 0.01% at 109.155 [2]. - The interbank major rate bond yields mostly decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down 0.1 basis points to 1.6370% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.43% to 434.97 points, with a trading volume of 543.51 billion yuan [2]. International Market Overview - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 1.59 basis points to 4.373% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising 1.5 basis points to 1.413% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, while the UK saw a slight increase in its 10-year yield [3]. Primary Market Activity - The 10-year "Inner Mongolia 2517" bond had a winning bid rate of 1.77%, with a total bid multiple of 26.15 [4]. - Guizhou Province's five local bonds showed strong demand, with bid multiples exceeding 28 times for all issues [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 220.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40% on June 23, with the total bid amount matching the amount accepted [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.1 basis points to 1.367% [5]. Institutional Insights - Institutions note a current supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with strong supply and weak demand, particularly in short-term bonds [7]. - There is potential for a shift in this dynamic due to an increase in government bond maturities and possible reductions in insurance long-term liability costs [7]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing and potential recovery in government bond trading [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of bank stocks in the A-share market, with 19 out of 42 bank stocks reaching historical highs this year, representing 45.24% of the total, leading all sectors in the market [1][2] - The bank stock index has seen a cumulative increase of 12.73% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has declined by 2.24% during the same period [1] - The automotive sector ranks second in terms of the proportion of stocks reaching historical highs, with 19.06%, while the machinery equipment sector follows with 15.96% [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of bank stocks is attributed to three main factors: a continued loose domestic monetary policy in a low inflation environment, sustained inflow of long-term funds into high-dividend, low-volatility bank stocks, and the reform of public funds leading to increased allocation to bank stocks [2] - Current investment logic for bank stocks includes the gradual alleviation of pressure on bank interest margins due to a slowdown in loan rate declines, and the highlighted high dividend advantage of bank stocks during the interest rate downcycle [2] - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality regional small banks with strong growth potential and stable state-owned banks to capitalize on both performance recovery and high dividend opportunities [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical variables are large, but the long - term trend of reducing dollar dependence globally and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged. For copper, in the short - term, due to the off - season demand, the price needs to be adjusted, but in the long - term, the supply of global copper mines is tight, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper prices. Zinc is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate are all under pressure due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side pressure [1][3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Gold is in a strong shock, and silver has a strong rebound [1]. - **Market Review**: European countries cut interest rates, the geopolitical situation did not expand, gold slightly declined, and silver lacked new drivers, with a large outflow of funds [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates, three European central banks cut interest rates in a row, and there are geopolitical variables. The short - term geopolitical variables are large, and the long - term gold long - bull logic remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold is in the adjustment stage, pay attention to the 800 pressure for SHFE gold in the short - term, and consider long - term investment opportunities. Silver lacks new impetus, pay attention to the gap support [3]. Copper - **Core View**: Copper is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: SHFE copper tested the support of the lower integer mark [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, the off - season of consumption is deepening, downstream demand is weak, but green copper demand in power and new energy vehicles is strong [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, take profit on copper long positions, and industrial customers should actively arrange short - hedging at high prices. In the long - term, be confident in the rise of copper prices. SHFE copper focuses on the range of [77800, 78800], and LME copper focuses on [9580, 9680] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and showed a weak shock [9]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc is under pressure and tests the previous low support. In the long - term, take short positions at high prices. SHFE zinc focuses on [21700, 22000], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Aluminum is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas trade is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing, but the demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and the supply is relatively loose [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell SHFE aluminum at high prices, and pay attention to aluminum ingot inventory changes. The main operation range is [20000 - 20800] [12]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel rebounds and then falls [1]. - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel was under pressure [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The cost support of nickel mines is weakening, the supply of refined nickel is excessive, and the stainless steel industry is facing the pressure of off - season and high inventory [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operation range of nickel is [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Lithium carbonate is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased positions slightly and oscillated at a low level [15]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply - side pressure of lithium carbonate remains high, the production has recovered to the same - period high, the new capacity is still ramping up, and the inventory is increasing [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [59000 - 60500] [16].

6月19日，英国央行召开货币政策会议，宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变。 英国央行如期维持利率不变 英国央行此次维持利率不变的决定，与周三美联储的行动一致。受此决策影响，英国国债和英镑汇率双 双下挫。 英国央行表示，英国GDP增长似乎仍然疲软，劳动力市场继续走软。迹象表明，随着时间的推移，疲软 的边际已经打开。薪酬增长指标继续放缓，同5月份一样，委员会预计今年剩余时间将显著放缓。 【导读】紧跟美联储，英国央行宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变 交易员还预计，到2026年夏季将有两次进一步的降息，届时利率将稳定在3.5%左右。 中信证券分析师指出，英国央行将锚定美联储政策路径，年内或仅降息两次。若全球经济因关税冲突再 度承压，政策宽松空间或被迫扩大。 英国央行正面临"通胀未达标"与"经济动能减弱"的双重挑战。当前政策利率4.25%仍处于紧缩区间，为 调整留足空间。短期来看，季度性降息将成为平衡通胀与增长的首选工具；中长期而言，全球贸易摩擦 与结构性失业问题或迫使央行采取更激进宽松措施。 挪威、瑞士央行宣布降息 在英国央行决议公布之前，欧洲地区部分其他国家的央行采取了降息行动。 日前，英国国家统计局公布的数据显示，英国 ...