图为官方制造业PMI（单位：%） 5月CPI同比下降0.1%，降幅与4月持平，主要受蔬菜、水果等食品价格以及能源等非食品价格下降的影响；PPI同比 下降3.3%，降幅较4月扩大0.6个百分点，主要受国际原油、煤炭等大宗商品价格下跌，以及去年同期高基数的拖 累。但从数据变化看，随着大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换新等政策的落实，高端装备制造业发展加快，家电、移 动通信等耐用品消费明显回暖，带动相关行业价格回升，部分领域供需关系有所改善，有助于企业利润的恢复和增 长。 近期股指期货呈现震荡整理态势，中证500和中证1000指数走势偏强，新消费、低估红利等板块表现亮眼。从基本 面看，随着中美达成互相削减关税的协议，国内经济数据边际改善，官方制造业PMI小幅回升，工业生产明显加 快，需求有所回暖。 国家统计局公布的数据显示，5月官方制造业PMI录得49.5%，较4月回升0.5个百分点。从规模上看，大型企业PMI 为50.7%，较4月回升1.5个百分点；中型企业PMI降至47.5%，创2023年以来新低；小型企业PMI录得49.3%，较4月 回升0.6个百分点。从分类指数看，生产指数由49.8%回升至50.7%；新订单和新 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

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Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of trade tensions between the US and China, noting that after the US initiated tariff threats in March 2018, multiple high-level talks occurred, but the US frequently changed its stance, leading to a breakdown in negotiations and escalation of conflicts [2][29] - China's trade surplus has been increasing since 2020, with a projected total trade surplus of $1,105.3 billion by April 2025, compared to an average of $385.1 billion from 2018 to 2019 [2][29] - The report suggests that the domestic industrial production index is recovering, with specific sectors like methanol and polyester filament showing improvement, while others like Shandong refining and tires are declining [2][29] Group 2 - The report discusses the Chinese government's comprehensive financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including initiatives to boost the digital economy, with a target for the core digital economy to account for over 10% of GDP by 2025 [3] - The development of multimodal large models in technology is emphasized, with companies like ByteDance and Alibaba making significant advancements in AI capabilities [3] - The report indicates that the self-sufficiency strategy remains a long-term focus, driven by national policies and the need for domestic supply chain resilience, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on imports from the US [4][6] Group 3 - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors with low valuations, particularly in defense, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, while suggesting a focus on the rhythm of industry development [6] - The report notes that the semiconductor industry is expected to see continued growth, driven by advancements in AI and the release of new products, particularly in the context of AI glasses and storage solutions [21][22] - The report highlights the performance of the REITs market, with a focus on infrastructure projects and the increasing activity in the sector, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [32]

此外，周三公布的数据显示美国服务业活动收缩，就业增长放缓。国债收益率随之下跌，掉期交易员开 始押注美联储将在10月和12月两次降息。较低的利率环境通常对不产生利息的贵金属构成利好，而白银 由于其更高的价格弹性，往往在这种环境下表现更为突出。 分析认为，这轮白银暴涨或许只是开始——当避险需求遇上工业短缺，再叠加货币宽松预期，这样的组 合往往会产生超出预期的价格冲击。 特朗普政府于6月初加码进口钢铁和铝的关税后，市场开始担忧美国政府可能继续对其他关键金属加 税，从而驱动白银和铂金价格上涨。此外，近期美国公布的多项宏观数据表现不佳，市场对美联储降息 预期迅速发酵，也对白银和铂金等工业属性更强的贵金属产生了利好驱动。 随着关税政策的调整，全球贸易格局面临重塑，金属市场的供应链稳定性受到冲击。投资者为了规避可 能的风险，将资金转移至相对稳定且具有避险属性的贵金属市场，白银作为其中的重要一员，自然成了 资金流入的方向。这种基于宏观政策变动引发的市场行为，直接推动了白银价格在短期内的急剧上升。 国信期货表示，全球贸易摩擦与地缘冲突加剧、美国稳定币法案冲击美元信用、美联储政策分歧较大等 因素导致贵金属获得多重溢价，短期贵金属 ...

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 8 日 PMI 修复，内需仍需重视 5 月 PMI 数据点评 制造业 PMI 边际回暖，内需相对而言仍需后续政策支持。 相关研究报告 《市场策略更新》20250601 《美国关税政策面临法律挑战》20250530 《策略点评》20250530 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 固定收益 证券分析师：肖成哲 (8610)66229354 chengzhe.xiao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060005 ◼ 制造业 PMI 数据在枯荣线下边际回暖，中国国家统计局 5 月 31 日公布， 5 月份，中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分 点。"抢出口"仍在持续，但边际有所放缓；出厂价格、产成品库存、主要 原材料购进价格、供应商配送时间分项指数下降，其余分项较上月有所回 升。 ◼ 分项而言，内需相对外需仍有所不足。PMI 分项中新订单增长相较新出 口订单增长仍有所不足。5 月制造业新出口订单上行 2.8 个百分点至 47.5%，但 5 月制造业新订单仅上涨 ...

Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI for May is 49.2%, indicating a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but it remains below the expansion threshold for three consecutive months, reflecting weak economic momentum [1] - In Asia, the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.4%, while the Americas, Africa, and Europe remain in contraction [1] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is 48.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a four-month decline [2][1] Group 2: US Trade Deficit - The US trade deficit in April narrowed significantly by 55.5% to $61.6 billion, the lowest level in 2023, reversing the trend of widening deficits seen in the first quarter [3] - Imports fell by a record 16.3% in April, while exports increased by 3%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics due to tariff policies [3] - The trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest since March 2020, while deficits with Canada and Mexico also shrank [3] Group 3: European Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point cut in key interest rates, marking the eighth rate cut since June of the previous year, with the main refinancing rate now at 2% [5] - Eurozone inflation rates have decreased, with the harmonized CPI for May falling to 1.9%, the first time below 2% since September 2024 [5] - The ECB signaled a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle, as economic conditions stabilize and inflation pressures ease [6][5] Group 4: Domestic Appliance Subsidy Adjustments - Several regions in China have suspended or adjusted the "national subsidy" for replacing old appliances due to the depletion of available funds [8] - The subsidy program has been popular among residents, but its recent suspension may be a temporary measure as new funding is being planned [9] - The impact of the subsidy on stimulating domestic demand has been significant, but broader recovery in consumer spending is still needed [9] Group 5: Didi's Financial Performance - Didi reported a revenue of 53.26 billion yuan for Q1 2025, an 8.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.36 billion yuan, up 188.14% from the previous year [10] - The total order volume for Didi's domestic ride-hailing services increased by 10.3% year-on-year, while international orders grew by 24.9% [10] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to higher order volumes and a reduction in losses from overseas operations [11][10] Group 6: Precious Metals Price Surge - Silver prices have surged past $36, reaching the highest level since February 2012, while platinum prices also hit a two-year high at $1,154.73 per ounce [12] - Over the past year, silver and platinum have increased by 19% and 13%, respectively, while gold has risen by 42% [12] - The price increases are linked to industrial demand, with silver being crucial for solar panels and platinum used in automotive catalysts [12] Group 7: Market Overview - The stock market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,385.36 points, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19% [17] - Market activity was characterized by a lack of clear direction, with various sectors showing both gains and losses [17] - The recent market movements are influenced by expectations of future policy support and ongoing trade negotiations [18]

美元指数本周整体走势震荡，继续受到特朗普关税政策和谈判进展的影响。其中，周三，随着美国经济数据疲软推升了降息预期，美元指数跌破99关口，重 回六周低点。周四，中美元首通话提振了市场情绪，美指有所回升。周五非农数据后，美指重回该关口上方，截至发稿报99.3。 现货黄金本周整体走高，主要受到美元走软、贸易和地缘政治风险增加的提振。最刺激的行情出现在周四，金价坐上过山车，盘中触及3400美元/盎司关口 后又急转直下，回吐日内全部涨幅。截至发稿，现货黄金报3350美元/盎司。 另外，贵金属市场近期迎来集体上涨，白银、铂金和钯金价格均表现强劲。白银周四上涨至13年高位，自2012年2月以来首次突破每盎司36美元，铂金也升 至2022年以来的最高水平。 非美货币方面，随着美元走低，欧元、英镑、澳元、加元兑美元均本周整体录得下跌。美元兑日元连续第二周收涨，但本周是其近十周以来波动性最小的一 周。近期日本长期国债收益率的上升凸显了日本央行需要谨慎地收紧政策。 国际油价方面，美布两油本周料将录得三周来首次收涨。俄乌和谈和美伊核谈判前景黯淡，加拿大野火危及石油供应，以及更多贸易协议进展的消息提振了 需求前景，带动油价上涨。但是， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A shares and stock index futures rose collectively this week, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the economic fundamentals were still weak. The extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation by the US and the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents released positive signals for the relaxation of trade relations [9][14]. - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds declined by about 0.5bp. Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern [9]. - The commodity market strengthened due to the improvement in import and export expectations, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The US economic data weakened comprehensively, the dollar index was volatile and weak, the eurozone cut interest rates, and the euro was boosted by the weakening of the dollar [9]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.88%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 0.91%. A - share major indexes rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising more than 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the ranking of gains being IM>IC>IF>IH. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the economic fundamentals were still weak. The market trading activity rebounded significantly compared with last week. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Bonds - The yield of treasury bond cash bonds weakened this week. The yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds declined by about 0.5bp to 1.66% and 1.88% respectively. Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.27%, 0.45%, and 1.09% respectively. The bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.46%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.55%. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively. After the easing of the Sino - US tariff dispute, the import and export situation improved, and the commodity market strengthened, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The allocation suggestion is to short on rallies [9]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar 2506 contract rose 0.65%. The US economic data weakened comprehensively, the employment market faced downward risks, and the debt problem continued to suppress. The dollar index was volatile and weak. The eurozone cut interest rates by 25bps as expected, the inflation data continued to slow down, and the fiscal expansion plan provided support. The euro was mainly boosted by the weakening of the dollar. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9] 2. Important News and Events - Domestic news includes the implementation of the "Government Data Sharing Regulations", the President's important article on accelerating the construction of an education power, the pilot work on the integration of the human resources service industry and the manufacturing industry, and the participation of the Minister of Commerce in the WTO small - scale ministerial meeting [16]. - International news includes the US raising the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, the pessimistic US economic outlook shown in the Fed's "Beige Book", the OECD lowering the US and global economic growth forecasts, and the number of new jobs created by US enterprises hitting a two - year low [18]. 3. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - US economic data: The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the April factory orders month - on - month rate was - 3.7%, the May ADP employment was 3.7 million, the initial jobless claims for the week ended May 31 were 24.7 million, and the April trade balance was - 61.6 billion US dollars [19]. - EU economic data: The eurozone May manufacturing PMI final value was 49.4, the May CPI annual rate initial value was 1.9%, the April unemployment rate was 6.2%, the April PPI month - on - month rate was - 2.2%, and the European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate as of June 5 was 2% [19]. - Other countries' economic data: The UK May manufacturing PMI final value was 46.4, and，the German May manufacturing PMI final value was 48.3, the French May manufacturing PMI final value was 49.8 [19]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week's important economic indicators include China's May export and import annual rates in US dollars, the CPI annual rate, the UK's May unemployment rate, the US's May unadjusted CPI and core CPI annual rates, etc. [86]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月06日 隔夜金价震荡,白银伴随铜价破位上行。中美两国元首通话同意继续落实好日内瓦共识,尽快举行 新一轮会谈。美国公布周度初请失业金人数超预期升至24.7万创八个月新高，本周美国经济数据普 遍偏弱后聚焦今晚非农指引。金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空 间。 【铜】 隔夜铜价大幅波动，持续去库下伦铜短线突破9800美元，到目前美盘铜价已基本回撤隔夜涨幅。中 美领导人对话缓和贸易谈判气氛，美国4月进口额大幅下降；最新一期当周初请失业金人数显示失业 及人力成本压力升温。LME0-3月现货升水走扩至90美元,关注国内现货供求,沪铜夜盘跟涨、填补 清明缺口，昨日上海铜升水90元，广东贴水15元。前期空头择机换月，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝延续震荡。昨日铝锭社库减少1.5万吨，铝棒增加0.2万吨，去库速度有所放缓。需求面临 季节性转淡和贸易摩擦的考验,中美制造业PMI均处于荣枯线之下,抢出口消费前置后关注强现实是 否向弱预期转换。沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置存在阻力，逢高偏空参与。 (氧化 ...