Core Insights - Recent surge in precious metal prices, with gold surpassing $3993 per ounce and silver reaching $50.67, reflecting significant year-to-date increases of over 50% and 75% respectively [1][3] - Market dynamics are influenced by factors such as risk aversion, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and central bank gold purchases, but the real opportunities often arise before consensus is reached [3][10] Market Behavior Analysis - Market trading behavior is complex, with different phases indicating various investor actions: bullish dominance, profit-taking, bearish dominance, and short covering [5] - Historical data shows that significant price movements can occur even when positive news is announced, as seen in a silver mining stock that dropped 15% despite a positive discovery announcement due to prior profit-taking [7][9] Current Precious Metals Market - The increase in silver ETF holdings by 1000 tons this year does not necessarily indicate retail investor buying, as commercial short positions are at historical lows, suggesting miners and refiners are reducing hedging [10][12] - The recent gold market surge is driven by more than just risk aversion; a multi-dimensional analysis reveals deeper insights into market behavior and potential pitfalls for investors [10][12] Investment Principles - Three key investment principles are highlighted: the need for data-driven decision-making, understanding market discrepancies, and the importance of dynamic tracking of market momentum [12][13] - The current precious metals market resembles past trends where early identification of industry turning points led to significant profits, emphasizing the importance of information processing capabilities in investment strategies [11][12]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold has reached a new high due to multiple positive factors, including the U.S. government shutdown, escalating Sino - U.S. trade frictions, and a weakening U.S. employment market. However, after reaching a new high, the volatility of gold has increased, and there are also some factors that may cause short - term fluctuations [2][3] - In the short term, the price of gold will be in a high - level oscillation, with increased market volatility, and the domestic gold will remain at a discount [4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 27.3%, and the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) decreased by 47.5%. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.42%. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.22%, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.2% [11] - The U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.9%, the U.S. dollar index increased by 1.13%, the SOFR decreased by 1.7%, the U.S. 10 - year breakeven inflation rate increased by 0.72%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.4%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 30.1% [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 0.7%, and the U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 1.3% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate is 4.13%. Oil prices decreased by 2.8%, and the U.S. inflation expectation is 2.35% [17] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28%, and the U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 4.03%. The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.43%, and the VIX index increased to 21.66 [19] - The real interest rate decreased to 1.76%, and the gold price increased by 3.4%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28 [20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 index down 2.43%. Most developing - country stock markets also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.37% [21] - U.S. and German bonds declined, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.42%. The yield of UK Treasury bonds is 4.72%, and that of Japanese bonds is 1.688% [24] - The euro depreciated by 1.06%, the pound depreciated by 0.9%, the yen depreciated by 2.52%, and the Swiss franc depreciated by 0.48%. The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28% to 98.9, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [26][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The data on the net long position of gold speculation was suspended due to the government shutdown. The SPDR gold ETF holding volume rebounded to 1017 tons [32] - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the discount of Shanghai gold widened. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 78.5 [34] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's September import - export, credit, and social financing data - Tuesday: U.S. September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - Wednesday: China's September CPI - Thursday: U.S. September retail sales, October NAHB Housing Market Index, and the Fed's Beige Book on Economic Conditions - Friday: U.S. September new housing starts and building permits [35]

External Tariff Disturbances - Since 2018, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have shown that China's manufacturing competitiveness is difficult to contain or replace, with China's export share of global exports increasing from 12.7% in 2018 to an expected 14.6% in 2024 [1] - Capital markets typically experience a one-time "provisioning" followed by a "rebound" and "hedging" as external shocks are absorbed, as seen in the market's response to tariff changes in 2025 [2] - The safety margin of the assets themselves is a more critical pricing factor than external disturbances, as evidenced by the performance of the "Mao Index" and "Ning Combination" during tariff escalations [2] Long-term Confidence in Chinese Economy and Assets - There is a maintained long-term confidence in the Chinese economy and assets, with the number of high-tech enterprises expected to reach 463,000 in 2024, 1.7 times that of 2020 [3] - If external demand is impacted, the timing of counter-cyclical policy signals often serves as a crucial asset pricing coordinate, especially in the context of expected growth stabilization in Q4 [3] - A broad-based asset allocation is recommended to avoid excessive exposure to single-sided asset risks, particularly given the high valuations in the US stock market [3] Market Dynamics and Asset Rotation - In the second week of October, risk-off sentiment dominated, leading to a decline in asset rotation and increased volatility, with the VIX index rising above 20 [4] - The global stock market experienced a risk-off phase due to the US government shutdown and tariff escalations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [5] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with gold and silver performing well while oil prices retreated [6] Commodity Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have shown strength, with gold rising by 2.3% and silver by 6.6% in recent weeks, reflecting a significant year-to-date increase [7] - The copper market experienced fluctuations, initially rising but then declining due to tariff impacts, with LME copper futures dropping by 3.0% [7] - Domestic pricing for certain commodities, such as rebar, has shown slight recovery, indicating resilience in specific sectors [8] US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The US government shutdown is expected to continue until mid-October, increasing short-term economic uncertainty, while the upcoming CPI report on October 25 will provide critical inflation data for the Federal Reserve [12][14] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a preference for two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year to support employment and balance risks, reflecting a cautious shift towards gradual easing [15][14] Domestic Economic Indicators - The September construction PMI fell to 49, indicating contraction, but new orders and business activity expectations have shown signs of improvement [21] - The establishment of new policy financial tools has led to significant funding allocations for infrastructure and emerging industries, with over 110 billion yuan already disbursed [22] Price Competition Regulation - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address price disorder in the market, emphasizing the need for fair competition and self-regulation among businesses [23][29]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of recent geopolitical events, including the U.S. government shutdown and potential tariffs on Chinese imports, which have led to increased prices for precious and industrial metals [1][2]. - There is a focus on the strategic attributes of rare earth metals and the safe-haven properties of gold in the short term, while maintaining a long-term outlook on the fundamentals of copper, aluminum, tin, cobalt, and tantalum [1]. - The report suggests that the recent announcements from the U.S. and China regarding rare earths indicate a shift towards dual control of technology and supply chains, which may lead to a new round of price increases in the rare earth sector [7]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have seen increases of 3.6% and 3.0% respectively, with COMEX gold closing at $3986.2 per ounce and silver at $47.4 per ounce [2]. - The market is expected to continue favoring gold due to policy uncertainties and rising demand for silver, which has been included in the U.S. critical minerals list [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper closing at $10,374 per ton, reflecting a 0.86% rise [3]. - Supply constraints from major producers and a slight recovery in demand post-holiday are expected to support copper prices [3]. - Aluminum prices have also risen, with LME aluminum at $2,746 per ton, although recent geopolitical tensions have caused some volatility [3][7]. Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the growing anxiety in the U.S. and Europe regarding the supply of rare earth materials, particularly for AI and military applications [8]. - Recent policy changes in China regarding rare earth management are expected to influence market dynamics positively, with potential price increases anticipated [8]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise due to limited supply and strong demand, particularly in the context of the upcoming export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [8].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic research by Guosen Securities indicates that following the U.S. government's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," the U.S. dollar index has weakened significantly, while global risk aversion has increased, driving up gold prices. The uncertainty in trade has led to a bleak global growth outlook, with commodities generally declining, particularly global pricing varieties experiencing larger drops than domestic ones [1][3]. Trade Relations - As the fourth quarter approaches, China and the U.S. are set to enter a new round of intensive negotiations regarding trade issues. The medium to long-term uncertainty in trade relations between the two countries remains high. A review of the key events from the first round of trade confrontations in April-May this year can provide insights into potential market fluctuations in the next phase [2]. - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods. Following China's response, the U.S. increased tariffs to 125% within a few days. By May, under internal pressure, the U.S. softened its stance and expressed willingness to resolve trade disputes through diplomatic channels, leading to a temporary easing of tensions [2]. Dollar and Commodities - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a significant decline in the U.S. dollar index. Concurrently, global risk aversion has surged, further boosting gold prices. The uncertain trade environment has resulted in a pessimistic global growth outlook, with commodities generally weakening, especially global pricing varieties experiencing more significant declines than domestic ones [3]. - Looking ahead, under the trade conflict, gold prices are more likely to rise while other commodities remain weak. The impacts of trade policy conflicts tend to clear in the short term, potentially leading to overshooting opportunities. It is noteworthy that current trade negotiations are primarily focused on U.S.-China relations, differing from the broader global impact of the April tariff announcements [3]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to see a phase of rebound due to fundamental pressures. During the April trade tensions, bond yields fell by 18 basis points. Historical experiences suggest that sudden tariff and sanction events lead to rapid pricing in the bond market. Following the tariff policy announcement, the bond market experienced fluctuations exceeding 5 basis points within two trading days, but the impact diminished significantly as trade sanctions escalated [4][5]. - Looking forward, the probability of a bond market rebound in October appears higher. Economic pressures in July and August suggest that monetary policy may continue to ease. Additionally, the current 10-1 yield spread of 40 basis points is above the historical median, reflecting a relatively neutral economic outlook, with limited upward pressure on long-term yields under stable monetary policy conditions [5].

Trade Conflict Overview - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, which escalated to 125% shortly after[2] - By May 12, a temporary agreement was reached, resulting in the cancellation of 91% of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. and a 90-day suspension of 24% of the tariffs[2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of tariffs, the U.S. dollar index fell significantly, dropping over 2% within two trading days and reaching a three-year low of 97.92 by the end of April[18] - Gold prices surged during the same period, reflecting increased global risk aversion, while major commodities like copper saw significant declines, with a 6.26% drop shortly after the tariffs were announced[18][19] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced a downward trend, with yields falling by 18 basis points (BP) during the trade conflict in April[4] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.63% after the initial tariff announcements, indicating a strong market reaction to the trade tensions[27] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to rebound in October, driven by anticipated monetary policy easing due to economic pressures observed in July and August[4] - The current 10-1 year yield spread of 40 BP suggests a neutral economic outlook, indicating limited upward pressure on long-term yields[4] Risk Factors - Potential volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in international policies pose risks to the economic outlook[4][35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the U.S. stock market due to heightened tensions in U.S.-China trade relations, ongoing government shutdown, and profit-taking in tech stocks, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion [3][4] - On the same day, major global markets experienced sharp declines, with the Dow Jones falling nearly 2%, the S&P 500 dropping over 2.5%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by more than 3.5% [4] - Following the market downturn, a prominent domestic investor, Chen Xiaoqun, shared on social media that the maximum loss on Monday would be limited to 30 million, indicating a sense of relief amidst the turmoil [3]

特朗普警告将征收新关税，而中国计划限制稀土出口，黄金/美元维持在4000美元附近。 关税威胁升级，华盛顿僵局持续，重燃避险情绪，金价受提振 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普警告称，由于中国威胁对稀土实施出口管制，可能对中国征收新的关税，避险情绪由此升温。 周四，受交易员获利了结以及以色列和加沙地带停火的影响，黄金下跌1.59%。 美国政府停摆已持续第十天，短期内重新开放的可能性仍然很小。 美国政府停摆10天，且迅速重启经济的希望渺茫，避险情绪加深。 交易员关注10月24日推迟发布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)报告，以及美联储进一步宽松政策的预期，这些因素将支撑金价上涨。 周五北美交易时段，受中美贸易战升级影响，金价上涨。美国政府停摆以及美联储(Fed)进一步宽松政策的预期，黄金价格持续上涨。截至撰写本文时， XAU/USD交易价格为3997美元，上涨0.60%。 地缘政治因素也在影响金价。法国和日本的政治动荡提升了黄金的吸引力。 路透社透露，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙不会任命左翼总理，这引发了领导人的愤怒。一些马克龙的反对者敦促他要么举行新的立法选举，要么下台—— 而马克龙迄今为止坚决抵制这两个选项。 在日本，高市早苗 ...

在贸易与地缘政治风险交织的背景下，黄金短线或仍维持震荡格局。投资者应密切关注中美双方的后续 政策动向及美联储官员的讲话，控制仓位、理性应对市场波动。若避险情绪继续升温，金价或将保持强 势运行。 当前全球金融市场的关注点集中在中美贸易关系的走向以及美联储的政策取向上。随着美国政府关门进 入第十天、经济数据推迟发布，市场不确定性进一步上升。总体来看，避险需求与宽松预期仍将为黄金 提供支撑，短期高位震荡或成为主旋律。 周五，特朗普在社交平台上表示，美国将自11月1日起对全部中国进口商品征收100%关税，引发投资者 普遍担忧。与此同时，中国方面宣布强化稀土及相关技术出口的许可制度，被视为对美方措施的直接回 应。消息公布后，市场迅速进入避险模式。美股承压下行，投资资金涌向黄金与美国国债等避险资产。 美国10年期国债收益率下探至4.05%附近，黄金价格则继续上行，凸显市场对风险的高度敏感。 贸易冲突升级令美元指数持续承压。周五盘中，美元指数（DXY）一度跌破99关口，创下阶段性新 低。市场普遍认为，若贸易摩擦持续，美国经济可能面临更大压力，美联储或将被迫提前放松货币政 策。根据芝商所（CME）"美联储观察工具"显示，投资 ...

本文来自微信公众号：肖小跑，作者：肖小跑，题图来自：AI生成 10月11日成了新的币圈暴跌纪念日（一共有几个记不清了），懂王又发威，加密市场秒崩，比特币跌破11万美元，山寨币成片跳水，直接归零。 经历过前几个纪念日的OG们，应该心里门儿清：关税只是火星，真正的炸药是高杠杆。过去几个月币价屡创新高，但很多钱是合约、借贷、流动性挖出 来的杠杆钱，一有利空，高杠杆先被打爆，后面就是抛压滚雪球。熟悉的配方。 那么问题来了：黄金的杠杆也不低，（撇去 defi 不谈） 正规军在 COMEX 交易 crypto 需要 10% 保证金，黄金 CFD只要 2%。但黄金目前为止没有大崩， 大概侧面证明了这波主要是拿实物金的散户和央行？ 那这意味着黄金可以躲过一劫，从4000直奔5000吗？倒也不一定，我有另外一个暴论：叙事逐渐离谱。 大家现在对金价已经兴奋了很久了，以至于现在看到越来越多的一个行为艺术——社交媒体、甚至正式研报中开始出现"用黄金折算某资产或物价"的图 表。 比如，黄金买房： 再比如，黄金买油： 还有，黄金买股： 这件事我以前也喜欢干，主要想说明某国货币超发有多严重。但这些图很好，下次别画了。 除了视觉惊悚效果之外 ...