Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of the US economy has increased, and the US dollar has continued to decline. The global risk appetite has generally increased, while the Chinese economy has shown signs of accelerated recovery, and policy support expectations have strengthened, providing strong support for the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to have a short - term volatile rebound; bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with black metals being weakly volatile, non - ferrous metals having a volatile rebound, energy and chemicals having a volatile rebound, and precious metals rising [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US President's threat to dismiss the Fed Chairman has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy. Due to tariff issues, the economic uncertainty has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [2]. - Domestic: China's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The State Council's executive meeting indicated an increase in counter - cyclical adjustment to support employment and foreign trade, strengthening policy support expectations [2]. Stock Index - Affected by the hotel, tourism, food processing, and agricultural sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. However, strong economic data, policy support, and the US President's softened attitude towards tariffs provided support for the domestic market, suggesting short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs. The US government's credit damage, geopolitical risks, and the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance have supported the strong performance of gold. Silver may follow gold in high - level oscillations but faces greater downward pressure [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to decline slightly, with low trading volumes. Policy expectations have increased. Demand has improved, but the "buy - on - rising" mentality and the seasonal transition have led to differentiated trading. Supply is at a high level, and short - term steel markets are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices declined slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and supply is expected to increase further. Short - term policy expectations support prices, but a long - term bearish view is held if steel demand remains weak [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices were flat. Demand was fair, and supply showed different trends. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5][6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices have rebounded in the short term but are expected to be bearish in the long term due to the expected increase in OPEC supply [8]. - **Asphalt**: It has stabilized slightly following oil prices. The market shows regional differences, and its fundamentals mainly follow oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PX**: It has rebounded with oil prices but remains in a weak oscillation pattern due to weak supply and demand [8]. - **PTA**: It maintains a weak oscillation pattern due to limited improvement in terminal orders and increased downstream inventory pressure [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It continues to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak supply - demand conditions [10][11]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with limited export volume and weak domestic demand [11]. - **Methanol**: The 05 contract oscillates, while the 09 contract may present short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **PP**: It is expected to have an oscillatory recovery due to reduced supply pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The near - month contract is supported by low inventory, while the 09 contract faces medium - to - long - term pressure [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by strong demand and policy expectations, copper prices are expected to continue their oscillatory rebound [12]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic fundamentals are good, with significant inventory reduction. It has short - term rebound potential but is bearish in the medium term [12][13]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually recovering but remains at a low level, and demand is differentiated. Tin prices are expected to rebound in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Low domestic inventory and potential planting delays support the price. The market's concern about the export supply chain has decreased [14]. - **Soybean Meal**: The recovery of domestic oil - mill operations is slow. The futures are supported, and the monthly spread is expected to be repaired [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is in the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has decreased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil is decreasing, while rapeseed oil faces high - inventory pressure and is at risk of a price decline [15]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic inventory is low, and the price is affected by cost and international market conditions [16].

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates macroeconomic signals to determine equity allocation recommendations. It incorporates economic growth and monetary liquidity signals to generate timing signals for equity investments[4][27]. **Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns weights to two dimensions: economic growth and monetary liquidity. 2. Signal strength is calculated for each dimension. For April, the economic growth signal strength was 0%, while the monetary liquidity signal strength was 50%[27]. 3. Based on these signals, the recommended equity allocation for April was 25%[27]. **Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to macro timing, but its performance is subject to changes in macroeconomic conditions[27]. - **Model Name**: Micro-Cap Timing and Rotation Model **Construction Idea**: This model uses indicators related to market sentiment and fundamentals to monitor micro-cap stock performance and rotation opportunities[31]. **Construction Process**: 1. **Rotation Signal**: The model tracks the relative net value of the Micro-Cap Index and the "Mao Index" (a benchmark index). A signal was triggered on October 14, 2024, when the Micro-Cap Index crossed above its annual moving average[31]. 2. **Risk Warning Indicators**: - **Volatility Congestion**: This indicator reflects market sentiment. On October 15, 2024, the indicator fell below its threshold, deactivating the risk warning[31]. - **10-Year Treasury Yield YoY**: This fundamental indicator remained at -20.45%, below the risk control threshold of 0.3[31]. **Evaluation**: The model effectively combines sentiment and fundamental indicators to guide micro-cap stock investments[31]. Model Backtesting Results - **Macro Timing Strategy**: - Year-to-date return: 1.06% - Benchmark (Wind All A Index) return: 1.90%[27] - **Micro-Cap Timing and Rotation Model**: - Volatility Congestion YoY: -50.09% - 10-Year Treasury Yield YoY: -28.69%[31][32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Volume-Price Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors capture market dynamics by analyzing trading volume and price volatility[5]. **Construction Process**: - **Low Trading Volume**: Measures stocks with lower trading activity. - **Low Volatility**: Identifies stocks with stable price movements[5]. **Evaluation**: These factors performed well in a low-risk appetite environment, benefiting from market stability[5]. - **Factor Name**: Consensus Expectation Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor reflects market expectations for stocks with strong earnings forecasts[5]. **Construction Process**: - Derived from analysts' earnings forecasts and target prices. - Tracks changes in consensus expectations over time[5]. **Evaluation**: The factor performed well due to investors' preference for certainty in volatile markets[5]. - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Selection Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors predict convertible bond performance based on their relationship with underlying stocks and valuation metrics[46]. **Construction Process**: - **Equity Factors**: Derived from the underlying stock's consensus expectations, growth, financial quality, and valuation. - **Valuation Factor**: Based on the premium rate between the convertible bond's parity and floor price[46]. **Evaluation**: The factors achieved positive returns, indicating their effectiveness in identifying outperforming convertible bonds[46]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Volume-Price Factors**: - Low Trading Volume: Positive performance in a low-risk appetite environment[5]. - Low Volatility: Positive performance in stable market conditions[5]. - **Consensus Expectation Factor**: - Positive performance due to strong earnings forecast alignment[5]. - **Convertible Bond Selection Factors**: - Positive multi-long-short returns for equity consensus expectation, equity valuation, and convertible bond valuation factors[46].

记者 辛圆 他同时提到，未来LPR报价将给银行带来一定净息差收窄压力，将主要通过引导存款利率下行，全面降低银行资金成本等方式缓解。 4月7日，《人民日报》发表评论员文章《集中精力办好自己的事》，其中提出："未来根据形势需要，降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地，随 时可以出台。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明也认为，从目前来看，央行的降准降息节奏或将加快。 他进一步分析称，一方面，扩大内需的逆周期政策力度需要进一步加大；另一方面，部分外需转内需会进一步加大国内供给，对物价产生下行压力。促进物 价合理回升是今年货币政策的重要考量，需要货币政策发力节奏适当靠前。此外，美国经济下行压力增加，衰退概率加大，美元或走弱，对国内政策约束减 轻。 第二，王青表示，当前银行净息差处于历史低位，报价行主动下调LPR报价加点的动力不足。总体上看，年初以来LPR报价持续不动，根本上是一季度经济 走势偏强，由此，尽管当然货币政策基调由稳健转为适度宽松，但下调LPR报价的迫切性不强。 王青在采访中分析称，综合当外部经贸环境变化，国内房地产市场和物价走势，二季度"择机降准降息"时机已经成熟，不排除提前到4月的可能。 "预计本次降息幅度 ...

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 据新华社，会议指出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质 量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商 务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推 责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国 家进一步减产的最新计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减 产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据 显示， ...

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。据新华社，会议指 出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质 量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规 则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取 必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新 计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万 桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截 ...

国务院总理李强4月18日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干 举措，听取"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置情况汇报，讨论《中华人民共和国社会救助法（草 案）》，审议通过《中华人民共和国植物新品种保护条例（修订草案）》。 会议指出，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，要深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署，加力落实《政府工 作报告》明确的政策措施，锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外 贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。要鼓励 企业积极稳定就业，加大职业技能培训力度，扩大以工代赈等支持，加强就业公共服务。要稳 定外贸外资发展，一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度，支持外资企业境内再投资。要促进养 老、生育、文化、旅游等服务消费， 扩大有效投资，大力提振民间投资积极性。 要持续稳定 股市 ，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 相关举措一旦推出，要直达企业和群众，提高落 地效率，确保实施效果。 会议指出，"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置工作已取得阶段性进展，要坚持举一反三、标本兼治， 强化日常监管和预防工作，聚焦民生关切强化质量安全监管，进一步压紧压实全链条监管责 任， ...

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to counter external uncertainties and stabilize employment and the economy [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of diversifying markets to reduce reliance on a single market, particularly in light of the complex international investment environment [3] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 5.26 trillion yuan in Q1, a 2.2% increase year-on-year, accounting for 51.1% of China's total foreign trade [3] Group 2 - The government is implementing measures to optimize customs and improve the business environment at ports, which includes 16 measures to facilitate enterprise customs clearance [3] - The report outlines practical steps to support foreign trade, such as enhancing financial services and expanding export credit insurance coverage [3] - Utilizing e-commerce platforms and supermarkets is suggested as a way to help more enterprises cope with foreign trade challenges [3] Group 3 - Experts suggest that boosting domestic consumption can effectively absorb pressure from reduced exports to the U.S., emphasizing the need to address standardization issues [4] - The current structural contradictions in China's economy include overcapacity in low-end consumer goods and insufficient supply in high-end services [5] - Improving income distribution and supporting small and medium enterprises are seen as crucial for enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [5] Group 4 - The meeting stresses the importance of the real estate market in stimulating domestic demand, with ongoing policies aimed at promoting healthy development [7] - There is a call for more favorable policies to encourage developers to provide high-quality housing at reasonable prices [7] - Suggestions include exploring the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing to stabilize the real estate market and improve living standards [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Buy" [5]. Core Views - The focus on the domestic demand sector is expected to increase due to tariff impacts, with potential financial improvements in sectors like dairy products. Despite unclear short-term demand recovery signals, the market generally believes that policies aimed at boosting domestic demand will eventually lead to improvements in the demand side, thereby enhancing the valuation space for the sector [1][13]. - The second quarter is anticipated to see sectors such as dairy, frozen foods, snacks, and liquor entering a low base period for financial reports, which may support a rebound in stock prices despite limited short-term demand improvement [1][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is experiencing heightened attention due to escalating tariff conflicts, particularly in dairy products, which may see financial improvements [1][13]. 2. Liquor Sector - Demand in the liquor sector remains subdued but aligns with industry expectations. Supply-side pressures are easing as manufacturers reduce payment demands on distributors. Notably, Moutai maintains stable operations, with improved sales dynamics following price adjustments [2][14]. 3. Dairy Sector - The dairy industry is entering a supply contraction phase, with significant operational pressures on farms. The average price of fresh milk has dropped to 3.07 CNY/kg, nearing cash cost levels. The market is closely monitoring the supply-demand balance, which is influenced by various factors, including policy measures aimed at stabilizing production capacity [3][15]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a left-side configuration strategy, advocating for investments in dairy and snack sectors as foundational holdings, with a focus on companies like Yili and Yanjinpuzi. It also recommends flexible trading in underperforming sectors with potential for recovery, such as Lihai Foods and Shede Liquor [4][44]. 5. Key Data Tracking - As of April 11, 2025, the valuation level of the food and beverage sector (PE TTM, excluding negative values) is 21 times, reflecting a 5.5% increase since the beginning of the year. The liquor index PE is 20 times, up 4.6%, while the beverage index PE is 23 times, up 6.6% [16][20]. 6. Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies in the sector have varying earnings forecasts, with Moutai projected to achieve a net profit of 862.28 million CNY in 2024, while Wuliangye is expected to reach 331.73 million CNY [39][41]. 7. Important Company Announcements - Recent announcements include significant revenue declines for companies like Huangshanghuang and Juewei Foods, indicating challenges in the current market environment [37]. 8. Summary of Key Reports - The report includes various company briefings and annual report reviews, highlighting strategic directions and performance insights for companies like Moutai and Baidu Foods [43].

Market Overview - The market showed resilience this week, with the three major indices closing in the green despite a decline in individual stock performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.73% [1][9][12] - The market was supported by the "national team" stabilizing actions and expectations for domestic demand policies, leading to a recovery after a period of decline [2][12] Economic Analysis - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has prompted proactive measures from China, with the national team maintaining market stability. This is expected to impact the US economy negatively and increase inflationary pressures [2][9] - March CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with a narrowing drop compared to February. The core CPI, however, rose by 0.5%, indicating a mild improvement in consumer demand [10][12] - The PPI for March decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices, which also affected domestic prices [10][12] Policy Outlook - The liquidity in April is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. The central bank's recent operations indicate a supportive stance towards liquidity [11][12] - The government is likely to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment [10][11][12] Sector Recommendations - Investment focus is recommended on sectors such as finance, food and beverage, public utilities, retail, and technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) [3][12] Stock Performance Tracking - The report includes a tracking of potential stocks for April, with notable mentions such as China Rare Earth (up 7.99% over the period) and Haidilao (up 3.60%) [20][21]

Core Insights - The 2025 Q1 Bloomberg China Bond Underwriting Rankings reveal significant trends in the bond market, highlighting the performance of various banks and securities firms in the issuance of bonds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The total issuance of Panda bonds in 2024 exceeded 208.25 billion RMB, while in Q1 2025, the issuance by foreign institutions in the domestic market reached 41.6 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 38.28% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The overall issuance of domestic credit bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 3.77 trillion RMB, reflecting a decline of about 12.61% year-on-year [6]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased to approximately 8.35 trillion RMB in Q1 2025, up 11.97% from the previous year [10]. Group 2: Rankings and Performance - In the Bloomberg Q1 2025 China Bond Rankings, the top three positions were held by Bank of China (5.918%), CITIC Bank (5.675%), and Industrial Bank (5.297%) [7]. - For corporate bonds, CITIC Securities (13.450%), CITIC Jiantou (9.988%), and former Guotai Junan Securities (8.053%) maintained their top three positions [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond rankings (excluding certificates of deposit), the top three were held by Amundi (12.248%), HSBC (7.117%), and Standard Chartered Bank (5.021%) [7]. Group 3: Local Government Bonds - The issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 2.66 trillion RMB, a significant increase of about 78.26% year-on-year [12]. - The issuance included about 0.38 trillion RMB in general bonds and approximately 2.28 trillion RMB in special bonds, with debt resolution remaining a key focus [12]. Group 4: Offshore Bond Market - The issuance of offshore bonds (excluding certificates of deposit) by Chinese enterprises exceeded 401.4 billion RMB in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 35.36% [16]. - The issuance of "Kung Fu Bonds" surpassed 30 billion USD (approximately 219.2 billion RMB), showing a significant increase of over 122.20% compared to the previous year [16].