Group 1 - The core theme of the report focuses on understanding the "European changes" in the context of global multipolarity, regional power restructuring, and domestic polarization [2] - The report will involve contributions from experts across various Chinese universities and think tanks, discussing European integration prospects, geopolitical and geoeconomic changes, and the situations of major countries such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain [3] - The event marks a significant initiative by the China-Europe Research Think Tank Network (CTNE) to promote knowledge exchange and think tank collaboration following the successful release of last year's report on China-Europe relations in a multipolar world [3] Group 2 - The report authors include notable scholars from Tsinghua University, Shanghai Institute for International Studies, and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who will share insights on the changing role of the US, the reconstruction of Ukrainian identity, and the rebuilding of European security order [2] - The CTNE aims to enhance the international dissemination of Chinese perspectives by collaborating with fourteen other member institutions to explore innovative paths in regional and country-specific research [3] - The event featured discussions on the costs of European aid to Ukraine and the impact of the conflict on China-Russia and China-Europe relations, highlighting the current focal points of interest [2]

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：情绪利好，价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 7 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 9 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 9 | | 碳酸锂：仓单矛盾缓解，偏弱运行 | 11 | | 工业硅：上游工厂开始复产，盘面或回调 | 13 | | 多晶硅：关注实际现货成交情况 | 13 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 22 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 25 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 27 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 29 | | PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 | 31 | ...

经济导报记者｜刘勇 从需求端来看，目前美国夏季出行高峰仍在推进，传统旺季提振燃油需求，需求季节性增强。此外，美 国与欧洲及日本的关税新政谈判也在推进，进展相对积极，也释放积极信号，需求方面或有改善。 今年以来，国内油价已经历12轮调整，分别为"五涨五跌两搁浅"。本轮调价过后，2025年的调价格局将 变为"六涨五跌两搁浅"。 本次调价对于私家车主和物流企业来说成本将小幅增加。以油箱容量50升的普通私家车计算，此次调价 后，私家车加满一箱油将多花9元左右；按市区百公里耗油8升的车型，平均每行驶100公里燃油费用增 加1.44元左右。对满载50吨百公里油耗40升的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶100公里燃油费用多 花7.6元左右。 展望后市，在地缘局势缓和及OPEC+增产的背景下，国际油价存利空压力。整体来看，预计下一轮成 品油调价（窗口将在7月15日24时开启）下调的概率较大。 7月1日，国内成品油调价窗口如期打开。经济导报记者获悉，7月1日24时将上调汽柴油零售限价，其中 汽油每吨上调235元，柴油每吨上调225元。折合升价，92号汽油每升涨0.18元，95号汽油及0号柴油每 升涨0.19元。至此，国内成品油 ...

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：情绪利好，价格坚挺 | 4 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 6 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 8 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 1 日 黄金：地缘政治停火 白银：继续冲高 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-01 中国液体化工低库存，美国石油 低库存，能化延续震荡 国际原油期货延续震荡整理态势，美国又在积极促成俄乌之间的谈 判。从原油基本面情况看，当前全球整体库存逐步攀升，欧美经济体尤其 是美国石油库存却压力较小。美国原油商业库存、库欣库存和柴油库存均 位于五年同期最低，作为全球最大的原油消费国，美国的低库存将对油价 形成支撑，国内化工亦有支撑。 板块逻辑： 化工品中整体仍是震荡态势。我们关注到液体化工的库存近期有分 化。纯苯和苯乙烯的华东港口库存周度攀升，且已经升至五年同期最高； 另一方面乙二醇的港口库存持续下滑，将至五年同期最低。高库存说明供 给压力在与日俱增，极低的乙二醇库存则说明一旦有装置扰动，期价就可 能有较强的向上动力。聚酯链中的PX和TA也延续强基差格局，低库存和高 基差品种表现将强于其他品种。 原油：延续震荡整理，美国月报显示该国产量创纪录 LPG：基本面宽松，但市场仍对地缘风险担忧，PG盘面或震荡 沥青：欧佩克+增产或超预期，沥青高估值等待回落 高硫燃油：欧佩克+增产或超预期，高硫燃油重回弱势 低硫燃 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 风险因子：1）微盘股踩踏；2）美元流动性恶化；3）期权市场流动 性不及预期；4）关税超预期；5）供给超预期；6）货币宽松超预期 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-01 股市情绪偏暖，债市延续震荡 股指期货：情绪偏暖，多空良性换⼿ 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：短期预计债市延续震荡 股指期货方面，情绪偏暖，多空良性换手。大盘股资金拥挤后回撤， 伴随券商板块换手率降低，非银、银行、交运领跌，而资金外流至强热点 小盘股，军工、TMT行业领涨，出现行情扩散。同时，IM出现多空良性换 手，当日IM持仓大降超1.9万手，配合日内贴水走阔，特别是尾盘15分钟 贴水迅速加深，应是上周追涨的多单逐步止盈，且小盘股超额收益改善， 中性策略配合增加对冲空单持仓。另外，地缘风险缓和、关税节点后延， 宏观风险平息，而中报预告临近，市场转向关注内部盈利改善，万得预增 指数创新高。情绪偏暖环境下，保留多头配置，操作上，继续配置IM多 单。 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。期权方面，虽然情绪指标跟随标的上 行，但期权市场成交额出现明显回落，交易流动性不及预期。在流动性低 迷的衍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and changes in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a mixed outlook for gold prices and related investment vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 1, the gold ETF fund (159937) rose by 0.47% with a transaction volume of 238 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85% [1]. - International spot gold prices have rebounded above $3,300 per ounce, with the latest quote at $3,314.68 per ounce, marking a 0.38% increase [2]. - COMEX gold futures are quoted at $3,327 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The gold market has been under pressure due to easing geopolitical conflicts and rising U.S. stock markets, which have increased risk appetite among investors [3]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade agreements with multiple countries are expected to be completed by September 1, which may influence market sentiment [3]. - Speculation about the potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump could impact monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Analysts suggest a mixed to bullish long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term technical weaknesses and market adjustments [5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [5]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation remains significant, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investments in gold ETFs [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent rebound in the US stock market is supported by fundamental improvements, driven by three key factors: earnings expectations revision, a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and a reduction in geopolitical and policy risks [1][10][12] Group 2 - Earnings expectations have significantly improved, with the breadth of earnings revisions rising from a low of -25% in mid-April to -5%, indicating a strong recovery in corporate earnings outlook [3][5] - Historical data suggests that similar V-shaped recoveries in earnings revisions often lead to strong market returns over the following 12 months [5] - The preference for large-cap quality stocks, represented by the "Magnificent Seven," continues to lead in earnings revisions and stock performance, while small-cap stocks lag behind historical highs [7][14] Group 3 - The market is increasingly pricing in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Morgan Stanley predicting up to seven rate cuts by the end of next year, which could support stock valuations in the second half of this year [10][11] - Employment market data will be a key trigger for the Fed's policy shift, with significant private sector job growth below expectations potentially prompting earlier rate cuts [11] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks have eased, with oil prices dropping 14% since June 19, reducing inflationary pressures and potential threats to the business cycle [13] - The removal of concerns regarding the "capital tax" clause from the "Big Beautiful" plan alleviates risks related to foreign direct investment in the US [13] Group 5 - The current stock risk premium is at a 20-year low, while earnings risk is at a 20-year high, indicating a notable contradiction that warrants attention [14] - Long-term prospects remain optimistic, with AI-driven productivity improvements expected to contribute an additional 30 basis points to S&P 500 net profit margins by 2025-2026, expanding to 50 basis points by 2027 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by OPEC's production decisions and geopolitical factors, with oil prices showing slight declines as the market weighs supply increases against demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC is considering an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day for August, marking the fourth consecutive month of significant production increases, totaling 1.64 million barrels [1][2] - The strategy of Saudi Arabia reflects a "boiling frog" approach, aiming to capture market share while avoiding panic in the market [2] - There is a discrepancy between announced production increases and actual effective increases, highlighting risks related to compliance within OPEC [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The fragile ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, with the premium dropping from $15 per barrel to less than $1 [3] - President Trump's potential support for easing sanctions on Iran could further diminish the strategic scarcity of oil, although uncertainties remain regarding Iran's compliance [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Current oil prices are oscillating between $65 and $68 per barrel, reflecting a balance between U.S. economic resilience and seasonal demand against OPEC's production increases and policy uncertainties [3] - The U.S. shale oil cost line is expected to absorb about 50% of OPEC's nominal production increase, indicating a self-regulating market mechanism [3] - A critical OPEC meeting on July 6 will test the shale oil cost baseline and could trigger a reevaluation of oil values if the production increase is confirmed [3]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】欧盟决定将针对俄罗斯的制裁措施再延长6 个月，至2026年1月31日。相关措施覆盖俄罗斯贸易、金融、能 源、技术和军民两用产品等多个领域。评：关税谈判及相关制 裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡化，市场未来关注焦点是地 缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指数再度走弱，提振黄金，黄 金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关注美元指数走势。黄金中期 震荡格局并未改变，短期震荡偏多，但上方空间有限。 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2790元/吨，下降30元 /吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存67.05万吨，周上升14.34%；甲醇 样本生产企业库存34.16万吨，周减少2.58万吨；样本企业订单 待发24.07万吨，周下降3.31万吨；甲醇开工91.31%，周上升 2.65%；下游总产能利用率75.57%，周下降0.2%。评：成本端煤 炭价格预期较稳，国内甲醇开工预期高位运行，下游需求较 稳，本周预计进口到货有所减量，港口或去库。内地甲醇市场 偏弱，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差小幅走弱，整体 商谈成交一般。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力2400 一线，建议空单谨慎持有。 投资咨询中心 ...