一、日度市场总结 ：2025年6月6日SHFE主力合约收于78700元/吨，较前一日 上涨0.69%，呈小幅走高态势。LME 3个月期铜价报9707.5美元/吨，延续上 扬趋势。现货升贴水分化明显：升水铜贴水环比下跌15元，收窄至135元/ 吨，平水铜升水小幅扩至30元/吨，湿法铜维持-30元/吨贴水。LME(0-3)基 差走强至93.15美元/吨，近端供应趋紧。 ：LME持仓量环比减少1146手至283000手，市场交易活跃度略有 收缩。沪铜隔月价差BACK结构维持在100元/吨左右，进口亏损扩大至1600 元/吨，刺激冶炼厂加速出口，短期流动性压力增加。 ：铜精矿短缺问题加剧，国内冶炼产能修复中。西部铜材阴极铜产 量同比增18%至6.74万吨，叠加唐山港保税混矿项目验收通过，或缓解长期 原料压力。 ：全产业链进入传统淡季，开工率普遍下滑。铜棒6月开工率预计降 至47.11%，漆包线开工率预计环比降4.5个百分点至67.76%，电线电缆、铜 板带开工率亦走弱。高铜价抑制下游采购，以刚需和长单为主，黄铜棒企 业降价促销效果有限，成品库存维持高位。锂电铜箔需求相对坚韧。 ：LME库存环比增591吨至32278吨 ...

有色金属周报(锌) 基本面支撑有限，维持空配 2025年6月9日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：特朗普关税政策再度生变，市场对金属关税政策担 | | | | | 忧上升，避险情绪再度增强。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。受进口锌矿持续到货补充，国内 | | | | | 炼厂加工费持续上调，其中内蒙古、东北、广西等地区受 | | | | | 进口矿/炼厂检修因素影响，加工费涨幅较为明显；但随 | 随着进口锌矿不断到港，国内矿 | | | | 着港口锌矿库存明显下滑，部分新增炼厂产能开始产出， | 山亦稳步复产，炼厂原料库存增 | | | | 对锌矿需求旺盛，后续TC回升速度将放缓。 | 至27.72万吨，加工费持续上行带 | | |  | 成本利润：锌价回落后区间盘整，矿端对TC继续上调意 | 动炼厂利润不断好转，供给端增 | | | | 愿不高，预计6月调涨空间相对有限，国产TC或环比上调 | 量预期较强 ...

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/6/9 | | | | 生猪周度汇总 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13090 | -115 | -0.9% | | | | LH2509 | 13460 | -145 | -1.1% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13335 | -75 | -0.6% | | | 现货数据 | | 最新 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 商品猪出栏价 | 全国（元/kg） | 14.31 | -0.08 3 | -0.6% | | | | 河南（元/kg） | 14.4 | -0.12 | -0.8% | 交割基准地 | | 出栏均重 | 样本企业（kg） | 124.12 | -0.01 | 0 | | | 价差 | | 变化 | 基差 | 基差值 | 变化 | | 09-07价差 | 370 | -30 | 7月 | 830 | -485 | | 11-09价差 | -125 | 7 ...

一、日度市场总结 ： 碳酸锂主力合约价格于6月6日收于60440元/吨，较前一交易日小幅上涨 0.57%，短期反弹但上方压力仍存，期货反弹叠加现货价格持稳，基差有所 收敛。 ： 主力合约持仓量显著收缩，6月6日降至218416手，环比减少5.69%。成交量 小幅扩大至256782手，环比增加4.98%，日内交易活跃度提升，但缺乏持续 性增仓支撑。 ： 锂盐供应预期仍旧宽松，锂辉石及锂云母精矿价格持平，港口锂矿库存压 力持续，原料成本支撑弱化。5月下旬期货反弹刺激非一体化锂盐厂套保， 6月开工率存恢复性增量预期；产能利用率环比微升0.4个百分点至62.5%， 盐厂工艺逐步优化，中长期供应压力未减。 ： 下游需求结构性分化但整体偏弱。乘联会数据显示5月新能源车零售同比增 30%至105.6万辆，渗透率突破53.5%，但终端动力电池排产因销售淡季回 落；正极材料中三元材料及磷酸铁锂价格持平，但订单疲软，材料厂以消 耗库存为主，钴酸锂等产品因成本下行持续承压。新建电池产能释放节奏 放缓，市场观望情绪浓厚。 ： 碳酸锂库存环比增加0.65%至132432吨，延续累库趋势；仓单数据未更新， 但现货成交清淡反映实际去库动力 ...

红枣产业日报 2025-06-09 本点库存小幅减少。端午过后红枣市场交易氛围减弱，到货量减少，年度消费低谷期关注产区新季长势。 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、海关总署、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) 90 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 8910 | | 78665 | -5 ...

Market Review - Iron ore futures for the 2509 contract fell by 0.56%, closing at 704 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - From June 2 to June 8, 2025, global iron ore shipments totaled 35.104 million tons, an increase of 794,000 tons week-on-week. Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 29.194 million tons, up by 506,000 tons. Australian shipments reached 21.699 million tons, increasing by 2.493 million tons, with shipments to China at 18.92 million tons, up by 3.922 million tons. Brazilian shipments totaled 7.496 million tons, down by 1.987 million tons [2] - During the same period, China's 47 ports received 26.739 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 765,000 tons; 45 ports received 26.093 million tons, up by 728,000 tons; while the six northern ports received 13.836 million tons, down by 1.572 million tons. According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first five months, China imported 486 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 5.2%, with an average import price of 707.2 CNY per ton, down by 16.4% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, port arrivals have significantly rebounded, indicating an overall improvement in supply. However, iron and steel production has decreased for four consecutive weeks, with a mix of furnace maintenance and restarts leading to a continuous decline in demand. Port inventories are decreasing, and steel mill inventories are slightly down, with shipping volumes continuing to decline. Overall, supply is improving while demand is slowing, indicating a weak fundamental outlook for the industry, with potential for prices to decline further. The strategy suggested is to maintain a short position, increasing short positions on rebounds, and holding positions for the medium term [3] - Galaxy Futures highlighted that iron ore supply remains stable and is entering a seasonal peak, while demand from the steel industry is high but entering a low season. Overall market sentiment is declining, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]

高硫旺季需求支撑，低硫近端供应充裕 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | 期权：无(观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据) GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 高硫燃料油现货窗口成交活跃且成交价高位，支撑高硫现货贴水反弹。短期内关注俄乌谈判进程变化和俄罗斯炼厂春季季节性检修回 归情况，俄罗斯对外高硫出口暂维稳。墨西哥高硫主要供应炼厂二次产能逐步完善，对外高硫出口回落。美伊谈判暂无实质性进展， 中东5月高硫出口回落。需求端，高硫季节性发电需求支撑，埃及和沙特高硫进口需求高位维持。 低硫燃料油现货贴水震荡，但低硫供应持续回升且下游需求仍较疲弱。尼日利亚Dangote汽油装置运行仍不稳定，低硫产量供应持续 流出。南苏丹对外低硫原料供应逐步回归至24年初水平，5至6月已有8船低硫货装载预期，5月第一船60万桶预计于5月下旬到达新马 地区。Al-Zour低硫出口回升至炼厂正常运 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-09原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 1.基本面：中国外交部周六宣布，国务院副总理将于6月8日至13日访问英国，其间将在伦敦与美国总统特 朗普的三名高级助手举行会谈；面对特朗普政府加征进口关税的不确定性，美国5月非农就业岗位增加13.9 万个，就业增长放缓，但薪资稳健上涨应能保持经济扩张，并可能让美联储推迟恢复降息；美国财政部宣 布了针对伊朗国民以及阿拉伯联合酋长国和香港的一些实体的制裁措施，其中至少有两家公司与伊朗国家 油轮公司有关联；中性 2.基差：6月6日，阿曼原油现货价为64.68美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.41美元/桶，基 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with a slight decline in late - May due to some steel mill maintenance. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 2.33 million tons to 2.2 million tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased from 3.19 million tons to 3.29 million tons. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions [3][14]. - Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand weakened, and plate demand was weak. Real estate investment was sluggish, and infrastructure was stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry was in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances weakened. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, with steel exports increasing by 8.2% year - on - year from January to April, but the new export order index in May shrank to 42% [3]. - In the next month, steel prices will face continuous pressure. Terminal real estate investment will continue to decline, and due to poor data on new housing starts and construction areas, combined with seasonal patterns, the apparent demand for construction materials will decline. The domestic manufacturing industry will continue to contract, the demand for automobiles and home appliances will slow down, and overseas tariff impacts will lead to weak demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, steel demand will face both internal and external pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the steel market was under pressure and declined. After the May Day holiday, steel prices rose and then fell, with weak supply and demand. The blast furnace operating rate remained high, and electric furnaces reduced production due to losses. The demand side was suppressed by the decline in real estate investment. On May 12, the Sino - US tariff negotiation reached an agreement, boosting market sentiment, but the steel price rebound was short - lived. In the second half of the month, steel prices broke through downward after narrow - range fluctuations. Weak reality (declining off - season demand) and weak expectations (weak real estate + export pressure), combined with high supply and cost loosening, drove steel prices down. In June, supply - demand contradictions may further accumulate [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel mills' production is stable, and supply pressure remains high - From January to April, China's pig iron, crude steel, and steel production were 288.85 million tons, 345.35 million tons, and 480.21 million tons respectively, with cumulative year - on - year increases of 0.8%, 0.4%, and 6%. In April, crude steel production decreased by 7.3% month - on - month due to blast furnace maintenance and weak demand. In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with blast furnace hot metal production remaining at around 2.44 million tons per day. The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was about 2.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.08%; the weekly output of five major steel products was 8.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The production structure was differentiated, with long - process better than short - process. Electric furnace losses increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.2% to 33.8% [14]. 2.2 Steel inventory reduction slowed down, and factory inventory increased - In May, steel inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The absolute inventory was at a historical low, and the differentiation between varieties intensified. As of June 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 million tons), the social inventory was 9.31 million tons (a decrease of 0.92 million tons), and the factory inventory was 4.33 million tons (an increase of 0.09 million tons). After the May delivery, the number of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil will gradually enter the accumulation cycle [19]. 2.3 Demand enters the off - season, and pressure increases - Construction steel demand is weak and entering the off - season. Real estate investment is sluggish, and infrastructure is stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry is in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances are weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, and subsequent exports are under pressure [22]. 2.4 External risks still exist - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. Real estate investment continued to decline, and housing steel - using indicators continued to decline significantly. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating. In May, manufacturing steel - using showed internal differentiation and weakening external demand. Steel exports faced short - term pressure relief but were still blocked in the medium term. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative steel imports were 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and cumulative exports were 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [28][31][46]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In May, steel production was stable at a high level. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions. - Demand side: Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand will weaken, and plate demand will be weak. Overall, steel demand will continue to face double pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [48][51].

2025 年 6 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 非农就业稳健，美联储将保持观望 5 月新增非农就业延续放缓但好于市场预期，制造业就业可能受关税冲击而环 比减少，但吸纳就业的主力服务业就业小幅增加，显示就业依然稳健。时薪同 比增速持平，职位空缺数与失业人口比已低于 2019 年水平，就业市场供需已 经平衡。失业率小幅上升，家庭调查下就业人数与劳动力人口大幅下降。数据 公布后 7 月降息预期大幅下降至 16.7%，国债利率曲线走平。短期通胀反弹风 险和非农就业稳健降低美联储降息可能性，预计美联储 6-7 月仍将保持利率不 变。随着需求逐渐走弱，美联储可能在 9 月降息一次，11 月或 12 月再降息一 次。美联储 6 月会议公报和点阵图将透露更多在去通胀和保就业双重目标上的 权衡方向。市场对政策利率预期已从接近白宫立场转向接近美联储立场，美联 储官员言论基调可能从鹰派主导转向更加中性。 就业市场韧性支持联储 6-7 月继续暂停降息。仍然稳健的就业市场支持美 联储保持观望，短期内的通胀反弹风险也限制了联储预防性降息的政策空 间，预计美联储 6-7 月可能继续暂停降息。随着需求逐 ...