| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 前日收盘价 | 102.442 102.448 | 102.552 102.560 | 106.135 106.125 | 106.215 106.225 | 108.995 109.000 | 108.980 109.000 | 120.16 120.14 | 119.99 119.96 | | | 涨跌 | -0.006 | -0.008 | 0.010 | -0.010 | -0.005 | -0.020 | 0.020 | 0.030 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01 ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year change was -0.1%, consistent with the previous month and better than the market expectation of -0.2%[2] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to +0.6%, up from +0.5% in the previous month[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to -3.3%, compared to -2.7% previously, and was below the market expectation of -3.2%[2] Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - Domestic prices remain low due to falling energy prices and weak domestic investment demand, but certain sectors like travel services and high-tech products are seeing price increases[3] - Food prices in May showed a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, which is better than the five-year average decline of -1.4%[5] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing nearly 70% to the total CPI decline[5] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain low growth rates, with potential downward pressure from the pig market due to policy adjustments leading to increased supply[3] - PPI's month-on-month decline is anticipated to narrow as international oil prices stabilize and trade conditions improve[3] - The performance of core CPI and CPI may diverge, influenced by external factors such as oil prices and domestic consumption recovery[4]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - Multiple incremental economic policies are expected to be introduced soon, focusing on "two new" and "two heavy" areas, as well as stabilizing foreign trade, which will help stabilize expectations and yield early results [1] - The "two new" policies have been strengthened and expanded this year, becoming a significant driver for expanding domestic demand, with digital product purchase subsidies exceeding 140 billion yuan and home appliance retail sales maintaining double-digit growth for eight consecutive months [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate fund allocation and complete the 2024 consumer goods replacement fund settlement, enhancing fund utilization efficiency and implementing equipment update loan interest subsidies to reduce financing costs for various business entities [1] Group 2: Investment and Financial Tools - Investment plays a crucial role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, fostering momentum, benefiting people's livelihoods, and preventing risks, with 99% of the 102 major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" already completed [2] - New policy financial tools are being established to address capital shortages for project construction, with an estimated quota of around 500 billion yuan, potentially driving 6 to 6.5 trillion yuan in effective investment [2] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to increase support for foreign trade enterprises, including expanding export credit insurance coverage to enhance the confidence of foreign trade companies [2] Group 3: Employment Support - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security emphasizes the need for incremental policies to support job creation, including increased employment subsidies and higher unemployment insurance for affected enterprises [3] - Recommendations include implementing measures such as job retention refunds, guaranteed loans, employment subsidies, vocational training, and expanding labor-based assistance programs [3] - Continuous policy research and reserve efforts will be maintained to ensure timely implementation of employment stabilization measures as needed [3]

Group 1 - China will approve compliant rare earth export license applications and urges the US to lift all trade restrictions, including the 301 tariffs [2][2] - The Ministry of Commerce will actively cooperate with relevant departments to address the "involution" competition in the automotive industry, promoting fair market order [2][2] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced the establishment of 10 national data element comprehensive pilot zones to enhance the integration of the real economy and digital economy [2][2] Group 2 - In May, retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.056 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with a market penetration rate of 53.5% [2][2] - The Hong Kong stock market's total market capitalization reached HKD 40.9 trillion by the end of May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24% [2][2] - A total of 439 A-share companies conducted buybacks in the past month, with a total amount of CNY 26.689 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51.83% [2][2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, enhancing policy transparency [2][2] - The China Securities Index Company will officially launch the CSI Haitong Asset Management Technology Theme Bond Index and the CSI Haitong Asset Management Green Theme Bond Index [2][2] - The A-share listed companies are entering a concentrated phase for profit distribution, with nearly 1,300 companies executing their 2024 annual distribution plans [2][2]

Core Insights - The introduction of new policy financial tools is approaching, with various regions conducting training sessions to prepare for their implementation [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Financial Tools - New policy financial tools are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing domestic investment, particularly in technology innovation and consumer infrastructure [3][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to address capital shortages for project construction by establishing new policy financial tools by the end of June 2025 [2][4] - In 2022, policy development financial tools supported over 2,700 major projects across various sectors, with a total investment of 740 billion yuan [2][4] Group 2: Project Selection and Coordination - A coordinated mechanism for selecting and recommending projects for new policy financial tools is essential, focusing on projects that benefit both current and long-term goals [4][6] - The NDRC will lead the organization of project applications, ensuring that selected projects align with policy directions and are ready for implementation [4][6] - Local governments are encouraged to prepare projects that meet the criteria for new policy financial tools, ensuring quick execution once funding is available [6] Group 3: Expected Investment Impact - The new policy financial tools are projected to mobilize approximately 500 billion yuan, potentially leading to an effective investment of 6 trillion to 6.5 trillion yuan [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to support policy banks through targeted liquidity tools, enhancing funding for key infrastructure projects [5][6]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stabilizing market expectations through timely and effective policy measures in response to changing domestic and international conditions [1] - In 2025, the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be advanced by about one month compared to 2024, aimed at accelerating the implementation of "two重" and "two新" policies to boost domestic investment demand [3] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, alongside a 0.1 percentage point interest rate cut [3] Group 2 - This year, the "two重" construction project list includes significant cross-regional and cross-basin projects such as large and medium-sized irrigation areas and intercity railways in key urban agglomerations, with increased funding support for major engineering projects totaling 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year [6] - Approximately 3 trillion yuan in quality projects will be introduced to private enterprises in key sectors such as transportation and energy, with private capital participation in nuclear power projects reaching up to 20% [6] - The negative list for market access has been reduced to 106 items, a 30% decrease from the first version, allowing for the relaxation of entry restrictions in various industries [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent press conference on May 7 highlighted a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, indicating a strong commitment from the authorities to support the economy amid increasing external pressures [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The conference signaled a clear shift towards further monetary easing, including measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2]. - Starting May 15, the RRR will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [2]. - The policy interest rates, including the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, will be reduced from 1.5% to 1.4%, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) anticipated to decrease by about 0.1 percentage points [2]. Structural Policies - New structural monetary policy tools will be introduced to support sectors like technology innovation, consumption expansion, and inclusive finance [3]. - The quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-loans will increase from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and a new 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care will be established [3]. Economic Context - The need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments is emphasized due to increasing economic downward pressure from external shocks, particularly in the context of trade tensions [3][4]. - The financial market's stability is crucial, especially following significant fluctuations in international markets due to tariff policies [3]. Future Expectations - There is anticipation for new policy tools to be introduced, particularly those aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [5][6]. - The implementation of counter-cyclical measures will depend on the intensity of external shocks, with expectations for a gradual acceleration in fiscal policy [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent press conference by Chinese financial authorities introduced a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and economic expectations, with a focus on the significance of the "double reduction" policy [1] Group 1: Policy Timing and Strategy - The term "early" refers to the successful experience of releasing favorable policies before the market opening last year, indicating that the new financial policy package will have a more stable and lasting impact on the market [2] - The term "timely" highlights the importance of stabilizing market expectations ahead of the upcoming China-U.S. trade negotiations, which is crucial for gaining negotiation leverage [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The market's initial reaction centered on the unexpected interest rate cut, while the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction was anticipated. The interest rate cut opens up space for monetary policy due to increased economic downward pressure and external changes affecting exports [3] - The adjustment of housing provident fund rates and subsequent policies aimed at stimulating real estate demand signal a proactive approach to meet housing consumption needs, aligning with the directives from the April Politburo meeting [3] Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy - The new round of structural monetary policy tools aims to address challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and export shocks, featuring a "quantity expansion and price reduction" approach [4] - The introduction of multiple relending tools and a general reduction in relending and PSL rates by 0.25 percentage points will further lower financial institutions' funding costs, supporting the real economy [4] Group 4: Financial Policy and Fiscal Support - The establishment of relending tools for service consumption and elderly care represents a significant step in promoting service consumption, with monetary policy leading the way for potential fiscal support [5] - Current fiscal policies, including special bonds, have not been fully implemented, suggesting that new fiscal measures to support service consumption may be released mid-year [5] Group 5: Capital Market Stability and Growth - Capital market policies reflect a dual focus on stability and progress, with support from the Central Huijin Investment Company acting as a stabilizing force for the market [6] - The implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" will enhance the focus on investor interests, further invigorating market dynamics [6]

昨晚我对今天发布会是否有重磅内容还是持怀疑态度的，毕竟那通知没点名说潘 行会来，哈哈哈，我还给网友留言，说大概率不来！ 结果，啪啪打脸，潘行不但来了，而且还不是空着手来的！ 一上来就宣布了三大类十项政策措施，其中就包括前期念叨的"择机"降准和降 息，而且降准幅度还是超过了彭博的预测！！降低公积金贷款利率更是超预期。 李云泽也带来了一些对A股重要的政策，比如再批复600亿保险资金长期投资试 点，将保险公司股票投资风险因子调降10%，强调类平准基金有力有效并全力支 持等。 不过这满满的诚意也没能阻止我们大A高开低走！ 不到十点，崩盘哥就在群里打卡了！ 正如群友所痛斥的：格局不了一点！！！ 说实话，既然假期的时候就在传这个会议，那肯定有人提前布局了！ 吴清主席都说了，A股就是"靠谱"！ 当然调侃归调侃，是不是就该转向看空了？ 那肯定不是，增量政策才开始，而且现在专项债和特别国债猛猛发，还没开始发 力呢！ A股复盘 | 收回一部分昨天的红包 / 2025.05.07 民生证券指出，新型政策性金融工具等增量政策"未完待续"。 4月25日政治局会 议和28日国新办发布会上，均就"设立新型政策性金融工具"做出部署。尽管5月 ...