事件 ：10月15日，国家统计局公布9月通胀数据，CPI同比-0.3%、前值-0.4%、市场预期-0.1%、环比 0.1%；PPI同比-2.3%、前值-2.9%、市场预期-2.4%、环比0%。 核心观点：大宗涨价提振上游PPI，黄金与家电价格走高对中下游CPI也有较大拉动。 线索一：9月PPI改善，主因大宗价格延续上涨，但主要是受反内卷影响较小的铜价大幅上涨。 9月PPI环 比0%。从影响因素看，国内大宗商品中，9月以来铜价再度出现回涨（环比2.1%），对应有色采选、有 色压延业CPI环比分别2.5%、1.2%，拉动PPI环比0.1%，为主要贡献项。煤价也继续上涨，对应煤价拉动 PPI环比0.1%。但中下游产能利用率偏低导致中下游价格无法充分反映上游涨价传导，测算该因素拖累 PPI环比-0.1%。 线索二：整体CPI偏低主因食品价格拖累，核心CPI涨幅仍在扩大，结构上黄金价格的拉动作用持续增 强。 9月CPI环比0.1%，不及2017年来均值（0.4%）；其中核心CPI同比上行至1.1%，结构上源于核心商 品CPI（同比+0.5pct至1.4%）。其中金价对核心商品CPI提振较强，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别 ...

CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, a slight improvement from the previous month's -0.4% and better than the market expectation of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.9% in the previous month, driven by increases in prices of gold and durable goods[3] - Food prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, primarily due to falling pork prices, which dropped by 0.7% month-on-month[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3% in September from 2.9% in August, slightly better than the market expectation of -2.4%[2] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month at 0% for two consecutive months, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[6] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries showed price stabilization, contributing to the reduced PPI decline[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter as the impact of last year's high base fades and food price pressures diminish[8] - The PPI is anticipated to continue its upward trend, but the improvement may be limited due to weakening demand and ongoing international oil price declines[8] - The seasonal demand for pork may support prices, potentially leading to a price turning point by mid-next year if breeding stock continues to decrease[8]

Inflation Data Summary - In September, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decrease of 0.2% and an improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4%[2] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% and the previous month's 0%[2] - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, matching expectations but improving from a decline of 2.9% in the previous month[2] - The month-on-month PPI remained flat at 0 for the second consecutive month[5] Core CPI and Structural Changes - Core CPI rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of increase and the highest level since February 2024[4] - Significant increases were observed in the living goods (+2.2%) and other goods (+9.9%) categories[4] - The food CPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 4.4%, the worst performance since January 2024, driven by falling prices in pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), and eggs (-11.9%)[4] PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year improvement was influenced by a low base from the previous year, with certain sectors like non-ferrous metals showing price increases[5] - The PPI for black metal smelting improved from -4.0% to -0.6% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing negative gap[5] - However, downstream manufacturing prices remain weak, with the PPI for computers and electronics unchanged at -0.2% month-on-month[5] Future Outlook - The data indicates a growing structural divergence in prices, with core CPI rising while food prices and downstream PPI remain weak, suggesting insufficient terminal demand[8] - Upcoming policies aimed at addressing agricultural product issues may help stabilize prices moving forward[8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article emphasizes that the recent CPI decline of 0.3% is misleading, primarily due to food prices dragging down the overall index, with pork prices dropping by 17%, fresh vegetables by 13.7%, and eggs by 13.5% [3] - The focus should be on the core CPI, which, excluding food and energy, has increased by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand for durable goods like home appliances and electronics [3][4] - The PPI has decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting that the industrial sector is stabilizing and moving away from aggressive price competition [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that the current data reflects a gradual warming in the economy, with the core CPI indicating real demand recovery and the PPI showing a shift from harmful competition to healthy development within industries [4] - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the October CPI may turn positive due to a lower base from last year, and the PPI is expected to stabilize or even slightly increase, indicating a more stable economic environment [4] - Investors are advised to focus on the warming segments within the core CPI, such as home appliances and consumer electronics, as well as the stabilizing industrial sectors within the PPI, rather than short-term fluctuations in food prices [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 0.4% to 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year they decreased by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI remained flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.3% from -2.9%[2] - Production demand improved, supporting price increases in some energy and raw material sectors[2] - The coal processing price rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while the prices for coal mining and washing increased by 2.5%[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in CPI may continue into October due to tailwind factors, with a focus on the progress of pig production capacity reduction[2] - The real estate market remains weak, with property sales area and sales value down 4.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - M1 growth has been rising, which is expected to support PPI improvement, although the overall PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year[2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In September, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while it increased by 0.1% month-on-month [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1][4] - The decline in CPI was primarily attributed to the "carryover effect," with food prices dropping by 4.4%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [4][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, with the month-on-month figure remaining flat [1][6] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in producer prices [6][9] - The prices of production materials showed a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, but the decrease has lessened compared to previous months, suggesting some recovery in production material pricing [8][10] Group 3: Economic Factors and Market Trends - The improvement in price indices is attributed to the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and the continuous optimization of market competition [1][10] - Various macroeconomic policies are showing positive effects, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year price decline in several industries, including coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [10][11] - The overall market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with projections indicating that the PPI decline will narrow in the latter half of 2025 due to improved market conditions [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation shows that China's CPI in September declined slightly compared to the previous value, the decline of PPI prices has narrowed for two consecutive months, and the core CPI continues to recover. In terms of trade, the year - on - year growth rate of imports in September rebounded significantly, and exports to major economies such as ASEAN and the EU continued to grow. The manufacturing PMI in September rebounded to 49.8, with a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped to the critical point, and overall production and business activities remained in expansion. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end and is worried about the continuous weakening of the US labor market, and the market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cut in October remains firm. The probability of the new round of tariff hikes actually taking effect is low. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Strategically, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading approach and closely monitor policy trends and market sentiment changes [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased by 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively, while the TS main contract remained unchanged. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 36447, 26353, 7649, and 32987 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 decreased, while T2512 - 2603, TS2512 - 2603 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while the TF main contract increased. The net short positions of T and TF decreased, while those of TS and TL increased [2]. 3.2 CTD and Bond Quotes - **CTD Net Prices**: Some CTD net prices increased, such as 220019.IB, while others decreased, such as 250018.IB [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 2.50bp, while those of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.10bp, 0.75bp, 1.25bp, and 0.85bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 0.20bp, the Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.10bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 1.36bp, and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 0.90bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Domestic News**: China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that in September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 6000 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on October 15, with a net investment of 4000 billion yuan in October [2]. - **Overseas News**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months and is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [2]. 3.5 Key Events to Watch - On October 16 at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions. At 20:30 on the same day, the US September retail sales month - on - month rate will be announced [3].

Core Insights - In September, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The effects of macroeconomic policies are becoming evident, leading to positive price changes in certain industries [1] Industry Analysis - The price declines in several industries have narrowed, indicating effective capacity management and improved market competition. The following industries saw reduced year-on-year price declines: - Coal processing: down 8.3 percentage points - Black metal smelting and rolling: down 3.4 percentage points - Coal mining and washing: down 3.0 percentage points - Photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing: down 2.4 percentage points - Battery manufacturing: down 0.5 percentage points - Non-metallic mineral products: down 0.4 percentage points - The combined downward impact on PPI from these six industries decreased by approximately 0.34 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Price Trends - Structural upgrades and the release of consumer potential have led to price increases in related industries: - Aircraft manufacturing: up 1.4% year-on-year - Electronic special materials manufacturing: up 1.2% year-on-year - Wearable smart devices manufacturing: up 0.1% year-on-year - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are showing effects, with prices for arts and crafts and ceremonial goods rising by 14.7% year-on-year, and nutritional food manufacturing prices increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [1] Month-on-Month Analysis - The improvement in supply-demand structure has stabilized prices in certain industries: - Coal processing prices increased by 3.8% month-on-month - Coal mining and washing prices rose by 2.5% month-on-month - Black metal smelting and rolling prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month - Non-metallic mineral products and lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices decreased by 0.4% and 0.2% month-on-month, respectively, with declines narrowing by 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight narrowing of the decline compared to August[1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, slightly higher than the same period last year[1] - The food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month but fell by 4.4% year-on-year, close to the August decline[5] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to narrow[2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals increased, while the decline in building materials prices narrowed[2] - The recent external uncertainty, including potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, has not significantly altered domestic economic and price trends[2] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI increased by 1% year-on-year in September, continuing its upward trend over the past few months[5] - Prices of durable goods, such as household appliances and communication equipment, have recently shown signs of recovery[5] - Other goods and services have seen significant price increases, influenced by rising gold prices[5]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low in September, but core inflation is showing signs of recovery, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing a narrowing decline, indicating marginal improvement in industrial demand [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months that it has surpassed 1% [2][4]. - The decline in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with significant drops in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, down 17.0%, 13.7%, and 13.5% respectively [6][4]. - Analysts suggest that the high base effect will gradually diminish, and there is potential for the CPI to turn positive year-on-year within the year [7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][10]. - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the "anti-involution" policies that have led to price stabilization in several industries, including coal and steel, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% month-on-month [9][10]. - The overall market environment is improving due to regulatory measures aimed at curbing disorderly competition, which is expected to enhance industrial capacity utilization and support a re-inflationary trend [11].