Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp [4][5][6][7][8][9][11] - **Oscillation on the strong side**: Corn and starch [5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Livestock, cotton, sugar, log [6][9][11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: With the increase in soybean premium and the rise in the futures market leading the spot market, the basis weakens. It is expected that before the weather speculation, US soybeans will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Under the pressure of increasing domestic supply, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures market, and the basis will continue to be weak. The futures market of soybean meal will move within a range following US soybeans [1][2][4]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment has weakened. In the medium - term, driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds, the oils and fats market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support [4]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price remains strong, while the futures market rises first and then falls. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations. The continuous tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction, but continuous sharp increases are unlikely, and attention should be paid to potential negative factors such as import auctions [4][5]. - **Livestock**: In the short - term, the spot price of livestock is weak due to the off - season demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure will continue to increase, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The near - term market is under pressure, while the far - term market may improve due to expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the impact of commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is significant. The downward trend may continue. Although the futures market may temporarily stabilize and rebound slightly with the improvement of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to the performance after the futures market reaches the pressure level [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of raw materials is weak, and the rise of the futures market is blocked. Attention should be paid to the support level of the futures market after the price of butadiene stabilizes. The futures market of synthetic rubber is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it will be weak with oscillations. Although the current low inventory may support the near - term contracts, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price in the long - term [9]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force; in the short - term, the weakening of the external market leads to a decline in valuation, and the sugar price is weak with oscillations [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market operates flatly and is expected to oscillate. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the correction of the valuation of Russian needles may support the futures market [11]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market corrects. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak, and the volatility increases [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Outlook** - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment is weakening. Due to the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade negotiations and the good growth of US soybeans, the US soybean and soybean oil futures markets show different trends. Domestically, the cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is expected to rise. For palm oil, the production and export in May in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the inventory was slightly lower than expected. The export in early June is expected to increase, and the short - term production pressure may decrease marginally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level, and the import volume may gradually decrease in the future [4]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, but there is a trend of increasing drought in the quarterly outlook. The premium of South American soybeans is rising, and the average daily export volume in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the price of US soybeans will oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the transaction volume of spot and basis has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of the spot price. The profit of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to rise seasonally, putting pressure on the basis. The downstream inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the downstream is becoming more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The inventory of breeding sows has increased year - on - year, indicating that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [1][4]. - **Corn and Starch**: Affected by the start of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in Henan, the market sentiment is bullish. The continuous tightening of imported grains confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. However, the arrival of new wheat has reduced the demand for corn, and the futures market has fallen due to profit - taking by long - positions. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations [4][5]. - **Livestock**: After the recent sharp decline in pig prices, the state will conduct a central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage, which boosts market sentiment. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are still loose. In the short - term, the slaughter weight of livestock decreases, and the supply of large pigs increases. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to April 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the supply of livestock will increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the production capacity is still at a high level, and the motivation for capacity reduction is insufficient. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The macro - sentiment is strong, and the rubber price rebounds but is blocked near the pressure level. The implementation of zero - tariff policies for African products may have an impact on the market, but it needs further observation. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material price has rebounded recently. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the inventory problem has not been significantly improved. The downward trend may continue [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of butadiene is weak, which drags down the futures market. Although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, the overall decline was small. The fundamentals have not changed much. The purchase of butadiene is expected to provide short - term support, and the futures market is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the expectation of tight supply, the cotton price rebounds. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the production may increase if there is no extreme weather. The demand side has weakened recently, and the inventory is decreasing faster than before, which may support the price in the short - term. In the long - term, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price [9]. - **Sugar**: The market is trading in advance the expectation of a loose global sugar market supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to have good production. Although the production data in the first half of May in Brazil decreased year - on - year, the overall optimistic expectation remains unchanged. In China, the production of the 24/25 crushing season has ended, with a high sales rate and low inventory, but there is pressure from subsequent arrivals. The sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and weak with oscillations in the short - term [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market moves horizontally, and the near - term contracts are weak. The supply - demand situation shows that the warehouse receipts are decreasing, the supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and there are news of strikes and price - holding by pulp mills. The previous rebound of the futures market was mainly due to the correction of the valuation of Russian needles, and now it is approaching the end of the correction. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Log**: As the delivery of the LG2507 contract approaches, the game between long and short positions intensifies, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak. Fundamentally, the supply of logs is accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure [12]. **Variety Data Monitoring** The document lists the data monitoring sections for various products such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, livestock, rubber, cotton, sugar, paper pulp, and log, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international oil prices increased overnight, and the crude oil market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with attention to the actual development of geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2]. - Gold prices rose slightly due to the fall of the US dollar, but the increase was restricted by the positive market sentiment. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and silver has opened up upward space [3]. - Copper prices declined overnight but recovered due to the expected Fed rate - cut and the fall of the US dollar index. Short - sellers should consider changing positions and setting stop - losses [4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile, and short positions can be considered on rallies as the demand may weaken seasonally [5][8]. - Alumina futures are expected to be weak, and short positions can be considered on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended on rallies [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [9]. - Tin prices fell overnight, and attention should be paid to spot price adjustments [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, and light - position participation in the rebound is recommended [11]. - Industrial silicon futures rose with reduced positions, and caution is advised when chasing highs [12]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [13]. - Steel prices fell overnight, and the demand outlook is pessimistic, with attention to terminal demand and policies [14]. - Coke and coking coal prices are volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff developments [15][16]. - Manganese silicon prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be tried on rallies [17]. - Ferrosilicon prices are mainly driven by coking coal, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [18]. - The container shipping index (European line) is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [19]. - High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads are expected to weaken [20]. - Asphalt prices are expected to rise with oil prices, but the crack spread is under pressure [21]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are expected to be in low - level oscillations [22]. - Urea prices are expected to be weak [23]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [24]. - Styrene prices are expected to be supported by cost due to rising oil prices [25]. - Polypropylene and polyethylene prices are affected by cost and supply - demand factors, with limited upward momentum [26]. - PVC prices may be in low - level oscillations, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [27]. - PX valuation may be supported, while PTA prices may rise in the short term due to cost but face a weakening supply - demand situation [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are in bottom - level oscillations with limited downward space [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices may face inventory pressure, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [30]. - Glass prices fell overnight, and cautious operation is recommended [31]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended at high levels [32]. - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to weather changes [33]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to weather and supply - demand factors [34]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are expected to be supported in the short term [35]. - Domestic soybean prices are in horizontal adjustments, and attention should be paid to weather factors [36]. - Corn futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [37]. - Live hog prices are expected to be under short - term downward pressure and have long - term support [38]. - Egg prices have not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to various factors [39]. - Cotton prices are recommended for temporary observation, with attention to trade talks and inventory [40]. - Sugar prices are expected to be in oscillations [41]. - Apple prices are in oscillations, and attention should be paid to new - season yield estimates [42]. - Wood prices are weak, and temporary observation is recommended [43]. - Pulp prices are recommended for temporary observation, with attention to long - position opportunities on significant dips [44]. - Stock index futures are expected to be in a slightly volatile repair pattern [45]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a bullish and volatile trend [46]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [47]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices soared. Brent's August contract rose 6.28% to exceed $70/barrel. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp increase in oil prices. The unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventories last week also supported the strong trend of crude oil [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its crack spread is expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and its crack spread is expected to be under pressure [20]. - **Asphalt**: Overnight oil price increase is expected to drive up asphalt prices. However, the processing of diluted asphalt has a large theoretical loss, and the increase in asphalt production is limited. The terminal demand is expected to improve, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, but the crack spread is under pressure [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Domestic refinery prices are weak. Although the chemical demand is increasing, the growth space is limited. The market is under pressure in the off - season, but the rise in oil prices provides some support [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices rose slightly due to the fall of the US dollar, but the increase was restricted by positive market sentiment. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and silver has opened up upward space [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fell overnight but recovered due to the expected Fed rate - cut and the fall of the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to spot price adjustments and short - seller operations [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are volatile. The aluminum market is in the process of de - stocking, but the demand may weaken seasonally. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 20,300 yuan [5][8]. - **Alumina**: Alumina futures are weak, and short positions can be considered on rallies due to supply surplus [6]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are weak, and short positions are recommended on rallies. The supply of zinc ore is loosening, but the TC is low. The output of domestic smelters is expected to increase [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded, and short - selling opportunities are awaited. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines was delayed, and the NPI price was stable [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell overnight, and attention should be paid to spot price adjustments and short - seller operations [10]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel**: Steel prices fell overnight. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the negative feedback expectation is fermenting. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and policies [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices are volatile. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the prices rebounded. Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff developments [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Manganese silicon prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be tried on rallies. The manganese ore inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon prices are mainly driven by coking coal. The supply is decreasing, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [18]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Urea prices are weak. The agricultural demand is partially started but scattered, and the export is less than expected [23]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is expected to increase [24]. - **Styrene**: Rising oil prices are expected to support styrene prices. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly [25]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Rising oil prices support the cost, but the supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is weak for both polypropylene and polyethylene [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices may be in low - level oscillations due to cost increase and supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX valuation may be supported, while PTA prices may rise in the short term due to cost but face a weakening supply - demand situation [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices are in bottom - level oscillations. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices may face inventory pressure, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade talks brought positive sentiment. The supply of soybeans is increasing, but the cost of imported soybeans is rising. The soybean meal inventory is rising, and the market is expected to be volatile [33]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Sino - US trade negotiations are expected to drive up the price of rapeseed seeds, and domestic rapeseed products are expected to be supported in the short term [35]. - **Corn**: Sino - US trade talks reached a framework consensus. The supply of corn in Shandong increased slightly. The start of the wheat minimum purchase price plan in Henan affected the corn market. Corn futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [37]. - **Livestock & Poultry** - **Pig**: Pig futures are in a narrow - range fluctuation. The short - term spot price is under downward pressure, and the long - term price has support [38]. - **Egg**: Egg futures showed different trends. The spot price generally decreased. The egg price has not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to various factors [39]. - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and the planting and growth conditions are normal. Sino - US trade talks are positive. Domestic cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [40]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is expected to be bearish, and domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. Sugar prices are expected to be in oscillations [41]. - **Apple**: Apple prices are in oscillations. The market demand is decreasing, and attention should be paid to new - season yield estimates [42]. - **Wood**: Wood prices are weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. Temporary observation is recommended [43]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are low. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the supply is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on significant dips [44]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The price of the Shanghai - Gdansk test route by Maersk decreased slightly. There are doubts about the sustainability of the freight rate. Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: A - share markets oscillated and rose, and stock index futures are expected to be in a slightly volatile repair pattern [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Bond markets are strong, and treasury bond futures are expected to be in a bullish and volatile trend [46]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [47].

2025 年 06 月 12 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：天气良好、美豆收跌，连粕冲高回落 豆一：省储抛储预期，盘面回落 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4163 | +12 （+0.29%） | 4167 -7（-0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3047 | +28（+0.93%） | 3044 +4（+0.13%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1049.75 | -8.0（-0.76%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 294.1 | -1.6（-0.54%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | 持平或-20； | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2920～2950， 110/-80， | 较昨+2 ...

Market Overview - On June 11, the Hang Seng Index rose by 204 points or 0.8%, closing at 24,366 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.1% to 5,451 points[1] - The total market turnover reached over HKD 235.2 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 1.37 billion through the Hong Kong Stock Connect[1] - Key sectors leading the market included insurance, brokerage, gaming, oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, and engineering machinery, while biomedicine, food and beverage, and utilities lagged behind[1] Sector Performance - Major state-owned banks saw stock increases ranging from 1.1% to 2.5%[1] - Brokerage stocks benefited from merger rumors, with GF Securities (1776 HK) surging 6.2% and others like Huatai (6886 HK) and CITIC Securities (6066 HK) rising between 4.1% and 4.9%[1] - The gaming sector received a boost from new supportive measures, with Bilibili (9626 HK) climbing 9.9%[1] Economic Indicators - The automotive sector reported a wholesale volume of 2.686 million units in May, up 11.2% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, with cumulative sales for the first five months increasing by 10.9%[3] - New energy vehicle sales surged by 44% year-on-year, achieving a penetration rate of 44%[3] - The global healthcare sector saw a 33.8% month-on-month increase in financing, totaling USD 4.85 billion in May, indicating a recovery in investment[3] Real Estate Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities fell to 1.42 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year and 33.3% month-on-month, indicating a significant decline in the real estate market[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities rose to 85.4, compared to 83.6 last year, reflecting a slower inventory turnover[7] - Land transaction volumes dropped by 48.9% year-on-year, with a significant decline in the number of transactions[8] Strategic Recommendations - The current market strategy suggests waiting for fund rotation rather than chasing high-flying stocks, as the market lacks a clear leading sector[2] - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued sectors with high growth potential, particularly in the Hang Seng Tech Index, while maintaining a defensive stance in dividend-paying sectors[13]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，市场存担忧情绪，二是国内宏观利 好政策出台，央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购，来缓冲 市场资金流动性，三是中美关系异动，6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话，预计特朗普即将访问中国，并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判，四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息，五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看，国内目前供需形势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑，所以现货基差偏强，棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下，棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大，新疆丰产，预计 产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨，美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端，可变性较大，主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间，跟中国宏观持有积极态度，何时形成共振。短中期来看，进入 6、 7 月为对等 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced an increase due to positive stimuli, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% to 3402.32 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 0.71% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares was 12,867 billion, a decrease from 14,514 billion the previous day [1] - Most sectors saw gains, particularly rare earths, gaming, energy metals, insurance, automotive parts, securities, trade, non-metallic materials, jewelry, and colored metals [1] Trade Negotiations - The rise in A-shares was primarily linked to progress in US-China trade negotiations, with officials concluding a two-day meeting in London [1] - Chinese and US representatives reported professional and candid discussions, reaching a framework to implement agreements from previous high-level talks [1] - Further details regarding US-China trade negotiations are expected in the coming days, with a likelihood of positive developments [1] External Market Influences - US stock markets continued their recent upward trend, with all three major indices showing slight increases [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was stable around 7.188, while the US dollar remained in a consolidation phase due to various offsetting factors [2] - Market expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have diminished, now anticipating only one cut for the year [2] Future Market Focus - The A-share market's performance is expected to be influenced by ongoing US-China trade discussions, with reduced uncertainties likely leading to diminished trade-related volatility [2] - Attention may shift towards domestic economic data and potential easing policies, especially following disappointing May import/export and price data [2]

| Million | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月11日 | | 影丙烯 | ななな | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | PX | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | なな☆ | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 本周进口甲醇到港超40万吨，虽沿海表需增多但不敌进口货源到港增量，周期内港口累库幅度较大。国内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No explicit industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have weak driving force on stock indices, with weak fundamentals. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations should be focused on. Without obvious positive factors, the possibility of stock indices breaking upward is low [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short term, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data, leading to different trends in various commodities, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: Domestic factors have weak driving force, and overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The possibility of upward breakthrough is low without obvious positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. It may fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic is solid [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply limits the upward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening macro - sentiment and reduced downstream demand may lead to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while futures price is weak, and the increase in production from the smelting end presses down the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Monday's inventory increase presses down the price. The subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: It fluctuates with the macro - situation in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Futures are in a weak and fluctuating state in the short term, and there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradictions intensify in the short term, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows an improving trend, demand remains low, and inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Bearish due to factors such as a decline in downstream production scheduling and an increase in futures premiums over spot [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish as the mine - end price continues to decline and downstream procurement is inactive [1]. - **Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, cost loosens, supply - demand is loose, and there is no upward driving force [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expected peak in iron - water production, and there may be an increase in supply in June, so the pressure on steel products should be noted [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and good demand, but there is heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure from supply surplus [1]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and the price continues to be weak as the off - peak season approaches [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus concerns resurface, terminal demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures prices rebound to repair the discount. Coking coal can still be short - sold, and the logic for coke is the same [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The May report predicts an increase in production, exports, and inventory. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is a game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations in other oils [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key bearish drivers. Be vigilant against a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and strong macro - uncertainties in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. The M09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Demand is light at present, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is light, and it is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant, and the futures are at a discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short term, and the futures are generally stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Sino - US negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and there may be support in the summer consumption peak season [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, with Sino - US negotiations, geopolitical situations, and potential summer support [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are factors such as cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, attention should be paid to butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and the short - fiber cost is closely related. Short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profits expand, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: Speculative demand weakens, the device load rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - **Urea**: Daily production is still high, and the export demand is expected to increase in the short term, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate is high, inventory is increasing, traditional downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PE**: Seasonal demand weakens, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance ends and new devices are put into operation, and the price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - **LPG**: The spot is strong in the short term, but the market anticipates a price cut. The subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. Other - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. Short - selling should be cautious during the price - holding period, and long - positions can be lightly tried in the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, due to the US Commerce Secretary's speech adding market hopes for talks, the gold price fluctuated. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes showed mixed performance. The dollar index rose 0.04% to 99.05, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly to 7.1892. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.4 basis points to 4.470%. COMEX gold futures fell 0.30% to $3344.80 per ounce. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to about 4.15 yuan/gram. With the repeated expectations of trade negotiations and attention to the US CPI today, the gold price will continue to fluctuate [4]. - For silver, influenced by the same factors as gold, the silver price rose first and then fell. The correlation between silver price and gold price strengthened. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 436 yuan/kg. With the repeated expectations of trade negotiations, the influencing factors of silver price have returned, and the technical support has cooled down, so the silver price will fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US Commerce Secretary's speech affected the market. The gold price fluctuated. The US and European stock markets had different performances. The dollar index, RMB exchange rate, and US Treasury yields changed. COMEX gold futures declined. The gold basis was - 2.86 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 kg to 17817 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [4][5]. - Silver: The silver price rose first and then fell. The US and European stock markets had different performances. The dollar index, RMB exchange rate, and US Treasury yields changed. COMEX silver futures declined. The silver basis was - 19 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 35390 kg to 1193716 kg. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include the global turmoil, rising US stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [13][14]. 3.3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to focus on, including the speech of the European Central Bank President, the Huawei product launch, the release of European Central Bank salary data, the Nvidia GTC conference, the speech of the European Central Bank Chief Economist, the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting, the speech of the European Central Bank Executive, the release of the US May CPI, the testimony of the US Treasury Secretary, the release of the US May government budget, and the release of the Mexican central bank's semi - annual financial stability report [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The previous closing price of Shanghai gold 2508 was 775.06, the highest was 777.16, the lowest was 769.42, down 0.20 with a decline of 0.03%. The previous closing price of COMEX gold 2508 was 3344.8, the highest was 3370.4, the lowest was 3321.3, down 10.10 with a decline of 0.30%. The SGE gold T + D rose 2.78 with an increase of 0.10%. The London gold spot price fell 2.30 with a decline of 0.07% [16]. - Silver: The previous closing price of Shanghai silver 2508 was 8887, the highest was 9020, the lowest was 8858, up 55 with an increase of 0.62%. The previous closing price of COMEX silver 2507 was 36.655, the highest was 36.975, the lowest was 36.425, down 0.141 with a decline of 0.38%. The SGE silver T + D fell 60 with a decline of 0.07%. The London silver spot price fell 0.22 with a decline of 0.60% [16]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: On June 10, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold was 201,120, an increase of 52 or 0.03% compared to the previous day. The short position was 71,063, a decrease of 516 or 0.72%. The net position was 130,057, an increase of 568 or 0.44% [28]. - Silver: On June 10, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver was 468,649, a decrease of 27,923 or 5.62% compared to the previous day. The short position was 359,759, a decrease of 17,302 or 4.59%. The net position was 108,890, a decrease of 10,621 or 8.89% [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term trend is differentiated. Gold will continue to fluctuate, and this week the focus is on the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the US inflation data on Wednesday night. London silver remains in a relatively strong state, with the upper target moved up to the 40 area, support at 36.3, and key support at 34.8. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Tuesday, precious metal prices generally fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3344.8 per ounce, down 0.3%; US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.655 per ounce, down 0.38%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 775.06 yuan per gram, down 0.03%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8887 yuan per kilogram, up 0.62% [2]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.1%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 14.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 0%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 52.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0%. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.31 tons to 935.91 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 32.52 tons to 14689.5 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 35.4 tons to 1193.7 tons daily; SGX silver inventory decreased by 49 tons to 1347.5 tons in the week ending May 30 [3]. 3.3本周关注 - This week, focus on the US CPI data on Wednesday night. Regarding events, focus on He Lifeng's visit to the UK from June 8 - 13 and the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. US Treasury Secretary Besent will testify before the House Committee this week. At 00:00 on Friday, the Fed will release the "US Quarterly Financial Accounts Report". This week enters the Fed officials' blackout period before the June 19 FOMC meeting [4]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - SHFE gold main continuous contract is at 775.06 yuan per gram, up 0.04%; SGX gold TD is at 772.82 yuan per gram, up 0.1%; CME gold main contract is at $3344.8 per ounce, down 0.06%. SHFE silver main continuous contract is at 8887 yuan per kilogram, down 0.25%; SGX silver TD is at 8882 yuan per kilogram, down 0.07%; CME silver main contract is at $36.655 per ounce, down 0.68%. SHFE - TD gold is at 2.24 yuan per gram, down 17.34%; SHFE - TD silver is at 5 yuan per kilogram, up 90.91%. CME gold - silver ratio is 91.2509, up 0.62% [7]. 3.5库存持仓表 - SHFE gold inventory is 17817 kilograms, down 0.17%; CME gold inventory is 1179.7392 tons, down 0.44%; SHFE gold positions are 170163 lots, down 1.74%; SPDR gold positions are 935.91 tons, down 0.03%. SHFE silver inventory is 1193.716 tons, up 3.06%; CME silver inventory is 15401.8452 tons, up 0.17%; SGX silver inventory is 1347.54 tons, down 3.51%. SHFE silver positions are 465984 lots, down 5.17%; SLV silver positions are 14689.496948 tons, up 0.22% [15][17]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - The US dollar index is 99.0366, up 0.04%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1903, up 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 42866.87 points, up 0.25%. WTI crude oil spot is $64.98 per barrel, down 0.47%. LmeS copper 03 is $9725 per ton, down 0.45%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.47%, down 0.45%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is 2.18%, unchanged. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.46%, down 4.17% [22].