Report Overview - The report is a weekly precious metals report dated March 31, 2025, focusing on gold price trends and influencing factors [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In Q1, gold prices continued to rise, with New York gold rising from around $2,650 at the beginning of the year to around $3,100 at the end of the quarter, and Shanghai gold rising from around 620 to 720. The upward momentum mainly comes from three aspects: rising global inflation expectations due to US tariff hikes, increasing US economic recession expectations leading to weakening of the US dollar and US stocks and rising safe - haven demand, and declining US dollar credit, de - globalization, and de - dollarization [5] - In Q2, the US economy is expected to continue to weaken under the background of the tariff war, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may rise. The European economy is expected to improve, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are expected to be weak, with the US dollar possibly breaking below the 100 mark, which will provide upward momentum for gold prices. The continuous progress of the cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine may lead to a large - scale cease - fire agreement, and the easing of geopolitical tensions may put pressure on gold prices. Gold prices in Q2 may show a wide - range volatile and slightly upward trend [6] - In the long term, after Trump took office, he intensively introduced tariff - hiking policies, accelerating the processes of de - globalization and de - dollarization, reducing the US dollar credit, and continuously increasing the global demand for gold as a safe - haven and reserve. During the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, and the continuous increase in ETF demand will also drive gold prices up. Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the long term [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - No specific content about the weekly trend is provided other than references to related charts 1.2 Indicator Gains and Losses - From March 21 to March 28, COMEX gold rose from $3,028.20 to $3,118.00, a 2.97% increase; COMEX silver rose from $33.53 to $34.82, a 3.85% increase; SHFE gold futures rose from 706.96 to 722.80, a 2.24% increase; SHFE silver futures rose from 8,207.00 to 8,512.00, a 3.72% increase. The US dollar index decreased by 0.12%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB increased by 0.16%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.02, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.53%, and the US crude oil continuous contract increased by 1.10%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.85%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.42%. SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.43, and iShare Gold ETF decreased by 0.41 [11] 2. New York Gold Breaks Through $3,100 - Last week, gold prices strengthened again after a strong high - level oscillation. New York gold reached the $3,100 mark, and Shanghai gold reached the 720 mark. The US dollar index and US stocks both showed a trend of rising, then falling, and a second bottom - testing [13] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of March 25, compared with last week, long - position holdings decreased by 5,082 contracts, short - position holdings increased by 3,054 contracts, and net long - position holdings decreased by 8,136 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. In early March, gold prices rebounded after hitting the bottom, but the net non - commercial long - position holdings on COMEX continued to decline, indicating strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions [17] - In Q1, the holdings of major global gold ETFs increased significantly, especially after Trump took office, which largely reflects the rising safe - haven demand in the context of de - globalization [18] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the upward trend of gold prices in Q1, the influencing factors, the expected performance of gold prices in Q2, and the long - term upward trend [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for March show a significant improvement, with EPMI rising 10.6 points to 59.6, marking a seasonal high, and BCI increasing 2 points to 54.8, the highest since June 2023, indicating a potential economic recovery starting from late 2024 [1][5][9]. Economic Indicators - The EPMI data for March indicates a strong upward trend, reaching 59.6, which is the second-highest level for March since 2019, suggesting improved economic conditions [4][5]. - The BCI also reflects a positive economic rhythm, with projections indicating initial recovery in late 2024, followed by a second dip in December and continued improvement in early 2025 [5][9]. Corporate Revenue and Profitability - The improvement in economic sentiment is expected to positively impact corporate revenues, as indicated by the rise in the sales expectation index for March. However, profitability is influenced by both volume and pricing, with a noted decline in the profit expectation index due to falling intermediate goods prices [3][6]. Price Trends - The consumer price forward index continues to rise, reaching a new high since the rebound began, indicating an improving trend in consumer prices. In contrast, the intermediate goods price index has not shown clear signs of recovery, with a decline observed in March after a brief rebound in February [6][7]. Inventory and Financing Environment - Inventory indicators have shown an upward trend, reflecting both proactive and reactive inventory adjustments by industrial enterprises. The BCI inventory forward index aligns with economic sentiment, primarily indicating proactive inventory replenishment [2][7]. - The financing environment index saw significant improvement in March, attributed to a more accommodative monetary policy and increased credit support for private and small enterprises [7][8]. Investment Sentiment - There are concerns regarding investment willingness, as the investment and hiring forward indices showed a decline in March, potentially linked to rising trade protectionism and external uncertainties, such as the recent tariff increases by the U.S. on Chinese products [8][9].

以下文章来源于出海潜望 ，作者周月明 出海潜望 . 放弃幻想，逆全球化已成既定事实 特朗普重返白宫，中国出海企业在北美市场正面临一场前所未有的"生存保卫战"。贸易保护主义明显抬头，中美关系复杂多变...这些都让曾经看似广 阔的北美市场充满了不确定性。 但挑战背后往往蕴含新的机遇。如何在特朗普2.0时代把握北美市场新机会？如何在变局中寻找破局之道？ 3月27日下午，虎嗅邀请了五位资深专家，分别从宏观政策、产品创新、线下渠道布局、TikTok布局以及数据合规环节，分享独到观察与实战经验， 为出海企业提供切实可行的应对之策。 凌晨3点，浙江一家主营袜子出口的企业车间内，负责人李天盯着电脑屏幕上的未读邮件，眉头紧锁。美国老客户发来邮件要求"共同承担新增关 税"，否则将取消季度订单。这已是本月第三个提出类似要求的客户。 "现在做跨境就像在雷区跳舞，政策、物流、平台规则随时可能引爆。"李天的苦笑背后，折射出中国出海企业2025开年就面临的集体困境：2025年2 月4日，特朗普宣布美国对中国输美商品加征10%关税，一个月后，关税再次从10%提升至20%。 "当前出海企业正遭遇"政策+物流+消费习惯"的复合型冲击。"深圳电子 ...

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ：（3.10-3.18），全球大类资产表现分化，权益>大宗>债券。全球大类资产交易 主线仍然围绕"美国衰退交易"，但程度较3月初有所缓和：10Y美债利率和美元指数延续回落趋势但幅度显著缓和，美 股仍弱于全球股市但下跌幅度同样有所缓和。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 特朗普2.0 难以逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋势）三大底层逻辑，甚至一定程度上加大全球政治经济不确 定性。战略层面，全球资产配置仍是反脆弱的"杠铃策略"。一端是确定性稳健资产：（1）债券：债务收缩期， 中国利率债调整后再次迎来配置良机；（2）权益：债务收缩期，战略配置中资股杠铃策略（红利+科技）、泛东 南亚股市；（3）另类：黄金的超国家主权信用价值是应对逆全球化新投资范式的必需配置。另一端是高收益高 波动资产：把握AI产业趋势下的美股及中国AI产业链基础设施建设向下游软件应用扩散的丰富机会。特朗普上台 后的政策节 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and potential disruptive trade policies from the Trump administration [1][3]. - The pricing framework of gold is outlined, highlighting its financial attributes, safe-haven characteristics, and monetary properties, which are significantly influenced by factors such as the 10Y U.S. Treasury real interest rates and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit [1]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the company has consistently suggested opportunities for gold allocation, noting that gold prices have reached new highs [1]. Group 2 - The article discusses the long-term outlook for gold, suggesting that ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt and geopolitical risks will continue to support gold prices, reinforcing the belief in gold as a sovereign credit alternative [3]. - The demand for gold from central banks is mentioned as a supportive factor for gold prices in the medium to long term, alongside the potential erosion of U.S. dollar credit due to debt issues [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a weekly increase of 7.08%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.52 percentage points [1][9]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical commodities, recommending industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as the steel sector [2][21]. - The government work report for 2025 sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and improve macroeconomic sentiment [2][21]. - Key price movements include a significant drop in alumina prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of electrolytic aluminum producers. The report anticipates a continued upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices due to a tight supply situation [2][22]. - The report highlights the potential for copper prices to rise amid "re-inflation" expectations, with a focus on the supply dynamics and the possibility of reduced production in the smelting sector [2][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at +7.08%. Industrial metals increased by 8.43%, precious metals by 6.48%, and energy metals by 4.58% [1][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Huayu Mining (+47.77%) and Xinweiling (+45.12%), while the worst performers were Liyuan Co. (-8.97%) and *ST Zhongrun (-8.88%) [1][9]. Metal Prices & Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $9,602.00 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week, while domestic prices were at ¥78,320.00 per ton, up 1.93% [16][27]. - Aluminum prices increased to $2,689.00 per ton on the LME, a rise of 3.26%, with domestic prices at ¥20,835.00 per ton, up 0.94% [25][27]. - Zinc prices also saw an increase, with LME prices at $2,882.00 per ton, up 3.00% [17][27]. Core Insights Update and Key Stock Tracking - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending investments in copper and aluminum due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and improving demand [2][22]. - The report notes that the price of strategic metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxide has stabilized, with a current price of ¥460,900.00 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.44% [53][54].

Group 1 - The article discusses the typical path of inflation initiation, highlighting the transition from financial attributes to commodity attributes [2][3] - The first stage of inflation sees precious metals and rare metals leading the charge, with gold being particularly sensitive to monetary policy and risk aversion [2][3] - The second stage involves energy prices, particularly oil and coal, which rise due to direct cost push, substitution effects, and geopolitical events [4][5] Group 2 - The third stage features agricultural products and chemical products experiencing delayed price increases, driven by rising costs of fertilizers linked to energy prices and extreme weather conditions [6][7] - The fourth stage sees inflation spreading to end consumer prices through the transmission from PPI to CPI, influenced by rising costs in manufacturing and services [8][9] Group 3 - Historical cycles show different paths of inflation transmission based on driving factors, with examples including monetary easing, supply shocks, demand pull, and policy interventions [10][11] - Precious metals often lead in monetary easing cycles, while agricultural products may rise concurrently with energy during supply shocks [10][11] Group 4 - The article outlines the underlying logic of transmission paths, emphasizing the sensitivity of financial attributes and the hierarchical structure of the supply chain [12][13] - The transmission speed from upstream to downstream typically takes 3-6 months, but can be interrupted by excess capacity or weak demand in the midstream [14] Group 5 - Current cycles are characterized by the dual effects of new energy transitions and geopolitical conflicts, reshaping traditional inflation paths [15][16] - The article notes the impact of supply chain weaponization due to geopolitical tensions, leading to price volatility in critical minerals [16] Group 6 - Key monitoring indicators for inflation include gold prices, copper-gold ratios, and oil inventories, while lagging indicators include CPI and PPI transmission rates [18] - The article suggests using a modified version of the Merrill Lynch clock for cycle positioning, recommending different asset allocations based on economic phases [19] Group 7 - The conclusion emphasizes the dynamic nature of inflation transmission paths, which can be summarized as "monetary signals → supply shocks → cost transmission → widespread diffusion," while stressing the importance of a comprehensive analysis framework [20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the financial, technology, and electricity sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [15][17]. Core Insights - The global economic landscape shows that high-income countries contribute significantly to GDP growth, with China accounting for approximately 30% of global GDP increment over the past decade [3][5]. - The report highlights a shift from a U.S.-centric market to a more diversified investment approach, focusing on non-U.S. developed markets and selective emerging markets [8][10]. - The technology sector is expected to benefit from advancements in AI and software, with a particular emphasis on companies that can leverage AI for cost reduction and efficiency [15][17]. - Emerging markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia are identified as key areas for potential growth, with Vietnam projected to maintain a GDP growth rate above 10% by 2026 [12][14]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Overview - The distribution of global population and GDP shows that OECD countries account for 17% of the world's population but 61% of global GDP, while China’s GDP per capita is comparable to the world average [1][2]. - The growth rates of various income groups indicate that high-income countries have a compound growth rate of 3% over the past decade, while China has achieved 6% [3][4]. Sector Analysis - The financial sector is expected to perform well in 2024, driven by regulatory easing and a favorable interest rate environment [15]. - The technology sector is highlighted for its potential in AI applications, with a focus on software solutions that enhance operational efficiency [15][17]. - The electricity sector is projected to see increased demand with limited supply growth, making it a critical area for investment [17]. Emerging Markets Focus - Vietnam is noted for its rapid GDP growth and potential transition from foreign investment-driven growth to domestic demand [12][14]. - Indonesia is characterized as a large internal market with low dependency on U.S. exports, expected to maintain a GDP growth rate of over 5% [13]. - Saudi Arabia is recognized for its significant economic size in the Middle East and ongoing infrastructure development, supporting a growth rate of 4% to 5% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of DeepSeek and Trump's tariffs on global asset volatility, investor sentiment, and the macroeconomic narrative between China and the U.S. It highlights the interconnection between AI trends and tariff policies, emphasizing their influence on the financial and current accounts of both economies [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Economic and Asset Trends - The U.S. has maintained a long-term current account deficit while achieving financial account surpluses, primarily due to low savings rates and the dollar's privileged status [2][3]. - Since the pandemic, fiscal expansion has led to an increase in the current account deficit, while the AI trend has attracted capital inflows, supporting the dollar and the economy [2][4]. - The financial account's inflow is crucial for the U.S. economy, with AI being a key driver of this trend, especially since 2023 [2][20]. Group 2: China’s Economic Dynamics - China has experienced a long-term current account surplus since joining the WTO, but its financial account has seen capital outflows, indicating a reliance on external demand [13][18]. - The current economic model in China, which relies on current account surpluses for growth, faces challenges due to external pressures such as tariffs and weakening external demand [23][24]. - The need for domestic demand stimulation and structural reforms is emphasized to counterbalance the external challenges and attract capital inflows [23][24]. Group 3: Interconnection of U.S. and China Accounts - The article outlines how the financial account (AI) and current account (tariffs) are interconnected, with the financial account's performance being critical for future economic trends in both countries [20][22]. - For the U.S., the sustainability of capital inflows is contingent on the strength of the AI sector, while for China, the focus should be on stimulating domestic demand to improve the financial account [20][22]. - The potential for a shift in the global investment landscape is highlighted, with the AI narrative playing a pivotal role in determining the flow of capital between the two economies [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Zijin Mining [6][7]. Core Views - Zijin Mining is positioned as a leading global mining company with significant reserves of copper, gold, lithium, and molybdenum. The company aims to achieve its key economic targets two years ahead of schedule, with copper production expected to reach 1.5-1.6 million tons and gold production 1-1.1 million tons by 2028 [6][7]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth potential, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% for copper and 8% for gold production over the past decade [34][38]. - Zijin Mining's strategy includes both external acquisitions and internal exploration, leading to rapid resource growth. The company has successfully acquired several mines during periods of low commodity prices, enhancing its production capacity [6][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Copper and Gold Leader - The company ranks fifth globally in copper production and seventh in gold production, with significant reserves of 32.9 million tons of copper and 1,119.6 tons of gold as of mid-2024 [15][20]. - The company has ambitious plans to increase its production capacity significantly by 2028, aiming for a total output of 1.5-1.6 million tons of copper and 100-110 tons of gold [26][27]. 2. Strong Low-Grade Ore Processing and Large-Scale Construction - Zijin Mining has a mature experience in low-grade ore mining and a strong capability in integrated large-scale development, which allows for shorter construction periods and lower costs [28][29]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in its copper and gold resource volumes, with a 10-year CAGR of approximately 22% for copper and 12% for gold [34][38]. 3. Focus on Copper and Gold Mining Regions - The company is expanding its copper production through several major projects, including the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine and the Kamoa Copper Mine, which are expected to significantly boost output [49][50]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining is actively acquiring and upgrading existing mines, with several projects expected to enhance gold production in the coming years [59][60]. 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of approximately 31.97 billion, 38.89 billion, and 44.39 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 11, and 10 [6][7][22]. - The report highlights a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow increasing from 8.6 billion yuan in 2016 to 36.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [34]. 5. Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical factors and a shift in central bank purchasing behavior, while copper prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints [6][7].