Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For gold, the price is expected to rise steadily, so it is recommended to go long; for silver, there is short - term upside potential due to strong speculative sentiment, but future volatility will increase, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For basic metals like copper, it is recommended to wait and see for a buying point; aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; alumina prices will maintain a weak trend [2]. - For industrial silicon, the market is expected to oscillate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see; for lithium carbonate, the short - term has callback pressure and is expected to oscillate at a high level, so it is advisable to wait and see; for polysilicon, it is recommended to wait for the price to回调 to the spot price range and then layout long positions; for tin, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For the black industry, for螺纹 steel, it is advisable to wait and see and try to short the 2605 contract; for iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see; for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and try to short the 09 contract [4]. - For agricultural products, for soybean meal, the US soybean market oscillates weakly, and the domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term; for corn, the futures price is expected to oscillate; for oils and fats, the market is in a stage of oscillation and differentiation; for sugar, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to buy long at low prices; for eggs, the futures price is expected to oscillate; for live pigs, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [5][6][7]. - For energy and chemicals, for LLDPE, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and advisable to go long on far - month contracts in the long - term; for PVC, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage; for PTA, it is advisable to maintain a long - term long position for PX and look for opportunities to buy processing fees for PTA; for rubber, it is advisable to hold short positions in the short - term; for glass, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage; for PP, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and advisable to go long on far - month contracts in the long - term; for MEG, it is recommended to short at high prices; for crude oil, it is recommended to short at high prices; for styrene, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and advisable to go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long on styrene profits in the second quarter; for soda ash, it is recommended to short [8][9][10][11]. Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metal prices rose and then fell sharply, with London gold down more than 4% and London silver down 8.79% [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump pressured the Fed and may sue Powell; he said the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation was in the final stage; the Bank of Japan hinted at more interest rate hikes; domestic gold ETFs had a large outflow, and there were changes in inventories of various gold - related products [1]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on gold; wait and see for silver [1]. Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: The copper price rose sharply and then fell yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: The sharp adjustment of precious metals led to the adjustment of the metal sector. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and downstream orders stagnated after price increases [2]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for a buying point [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.74% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.50% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Henan and Shanxi reduced production due to environmental protection, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price will maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of mergers and acquisitions and other factors [2]. Industrial Metals Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday, the price opened flat, oscillated up in the morning, and fell nearly 3% in the afternoon [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased, social inventory slightly increased, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate within the range of 8400 - 9200, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 118,820 yuan/ton, down 9% [3]. - Fundamentals: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, demand for some materials decreased, and inventory is expected to increase in Q1 [3]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term has callback pressure and is expected to oscillate at a high level, so it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 56500 yuan/ton, down 4.16% [3]. - Fundamentals: Production is expected to decrease, inventory increased slightly, demand for some products decreased, and the annual installed capacity is expected to break through 300GW [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for the price to回调 to the spot price range and then layout long positions [3]. Tin - Market Performance: The tin price rose and then fell sharply yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: The adjustment of precious metals led to the adjustment of the metal sector. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3135 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory decreased, demand was weak year - on - year, supply decreased significantly year - on - year, and the futures discount was large [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see and try to short the 2605 contract [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The arrival volume increased, port inventory increased, coke prices were lowered, and the supply and demand were neutral [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1108.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output remained flat, coke prices were lowered, inventory was at a neutral level, and the futures premium was high [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term in South America; the US soybean crushing is strong, and the export progress is slow [5]. - Trading Strategy: The US soybean market oscillates weakly, and the domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price increased significantly, and the spot price decreased in Shandong and increased in the Northeast [5]. - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress was slower than last year, farmers were reluctant to sell, downstream inventory increased, and the procurement enthusiasm decreased [5]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market closed lower yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and exports increased [7]. - Trading Strategy: The market is in a stage of oscillation and differentiation [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The SR05 contract closed at 5263 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [7]. - Fundamentals: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is expected to follow the fundamental logic after the macro - sentiment cools down [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell [7]. - Fundamentals: The US cotton inspection situation and Japanese clothing import data; the domestic cotton futures price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Trading Strategy: Buy long at low prices [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price partially decreased [7]. - Fundamentals: The laying hen inventory decreased, the elimination enthusiasm decreased, and the demand was supported at low prices [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: The live pig futures price rebounded, and the spot price continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is still abundant, the demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film sector decreased [8]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, and go long on far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract closed at 4776, up 0.3% [9]. - Fundamentals: The price rebounded due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals did not keep up. The supply and demand were stable, and the inventory was high [9]. - Trading Strategy: Do reverse arbitrage [9]. PTA - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price was 919 dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5175 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply was high, the PTA short - term supply decreased, and the polyester demand decreased [9]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a long - term long position for PX and look for opportunities to buy processing fees for PTA [9]. Rubber - Market Performance: The RU2605 contract closed at 15665 yuan/ton, down 0.54% [9]. - Fundamentals: The Thai raw material price was stable, the inventory increased, and the market sentiment was wait - and - see [9]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the short - term [9]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract closed at 1052, up 0.5% [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the inventory was high [9]. - Trading Strategy: Do reverse arbitrage [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the export window opened [10]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, and go long on far - month contracts in the long - term [10]. MEG - Market Performance: The East China spot price was 3666 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was - 152 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, the inventory increased, and the polyester demand decreased [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices [10]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The oil price opened high and went high yesterday due to geopolitical events [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, the demand was in the off - season, and the inventory was above the five - year average [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices [10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories were at a normal - to - high level, and the demand was in the off - season [10]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate in the short - term, and go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long on styrene profits in the second quarter [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract closed at 1182, down 0.6% [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased due to new device production, the inventory decreased from a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [11]. - Trading Strategy: Short [11].

工业硅：关注上游工厂减产情况 多晶硅：区间震荡，波动放大 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,715 382,415 | -165 -152,155 | 120 75,473 | -400 58,891 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 221,065 | -3,677 | -541 | -16,583 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 56,500 | -2,455 | -2,345 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 69,428 | -61,662 | -143,852 | - | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8615 - 8815 [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short - term and is expected to recover in the medium - term. The demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and module production, with overall demand in continuous recession and cost support remaining stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55320 - 57680 [7][8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 87,000 tons, a 1.13% decrease compared to the previous week [3]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 77,000 tons, a 4.93% decrease compared to the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [3]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 303,000 tons (high), organic silicon inventory is 43,900 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 71,000 tons (high). Social inventory is 555,000 tons (a 0.36% increase), sample enterprise inventory is 195,600 tons (a 1.61% increase), and major port inventory is 140,000 tons (a 1.45% increase) [3]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Basis: On December 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 485 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [3]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions have decreased [3]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is expected to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 10.33GW (a 3.18% decrease), and inventory was 216,900 tons (a 0.88% increase). Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for silicon wafers is 45.7GW (a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month); in November, cell production was 55.61GW (a 6.17% decrease), and last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW (a 14.21% decrease). Currently, cell production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for cells is 48.72GW (a 12.38% decrease); in November, module production was 46.9GW (a 2.49% decrease), and in December, the expected module production is 39.99GW (a 14.73% decrease). Currently, module production is profitable [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: On December 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a high level compared to the same period in history [7]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions have decreased [7]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.99% to 2.30% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate ranging from 16.67% to 138.48% [15]. - Some contract spreads: The spread between the near - month and the next - month contract decreased by 16.67%, and the spread between the next - month and the second - next - month contract increased by 20.00% [15]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9907, a 5.09% increase compared to the previous period [15]. - Organic silicon: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease compared to the previous week. The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%. The daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton. The monthly DMC inventory was 43,900 tons, a 22.02% decrease compared to the previous month [15]. - Aluminum alloy: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 22,400 yuan/ton, a 1.82% increase compared to the previous day. The daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 323 yuan/ton, a 5.21% increase compared to the previous day [15]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 555,000 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 195,600 tons, a 1.61% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly major port inventory was 140,000 tons, a 1.45% increase compared to the previous week [15]. - Production/operating rate: The weekly production of sample enterprises was 45,700 tons, a 0.02% decrease compared to the previous week. The weekly operating rates of enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 0.58%, while those in Yunnan decreased by 9.21% [15]. - Cost - profit: The cost and profit of various types of silicon in different regions remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 1.89% to 5.63% [17]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate ranging from 19.09% to 37.45% [17]. - Silicon wafers: The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained unchanged. The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease compared to the previous week [17]. - Cells: The prices of various types of cells remained mostly unchanged. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease compared to the previous week. The monthly photovoltaic cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.18% decrease compared to the previous month [17]. - Modules: The prices of various types of modules remained unchanged. The monthly module production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease compared to the previous month. The domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month. The European module inventory was 33.1GW, a 6.50% decrease compared to the previous month [17]. - Polysilicon: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase compared to the previous week [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Supported by macro factors but constrained by the industry, prices will maintain range - bound oscillations [2][6]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Affected by market information, prices will experience wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - **Coke**: With the start of the fourth round of price cuts, prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][15]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by year - end production cuts, prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][15]. - **Log**: Prices will fluctuate at low levels [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase. The previous day's position was 629,681 lots, an increase of 48,950 lots. Imported and domestic ore prices all rose slightly, while most spreads decreased [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to November, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with different performance among different types of enterprises [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,130 yuan/ton and 3,287 yuan/ton respectively. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spreads [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were changes in steel production, inventory, and demand in mid - December. Also, the government implemented export license management for some steel products, and there were changes in steel imports [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures closing prices, trading volumes, and various spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price adjustments for silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese, and changes in the operating rate and production of silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in Gansu [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 decreased. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were changes in metallurgical coal indexes, and coal mines in Fuyuan, Yunnan stopped production, which may affect regional supply [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Log - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts, as well as changes in spot prices [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 12 - month LPR remained unchanged in December [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

2025年12月30日 | 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆仍收跌，连粕或跟随调整 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：面积预期暂无定论，期价回调20251230 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：短期震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：矛盾继续积累，短期偏强 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,512 | -0.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment outlooks and trend analyses for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and risk warnings [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation and macro - news. The trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment. The price shows a downward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: Capital outflows lead to a retracement. The price drops significantly, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. - **Palladium**: It follows platinum's retracement. The price also shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Capital liquidation causes price corrections. The price experiences a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits price declines. The price shows a slight decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The price drops, and the trend strength is 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It follows copper. The price movement is related to copper, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: It is in a sideways oscillation. The price remains relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It shows a slight decline. The price drops slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals restrict elasticity, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied in some products)**: Affects the prices of downstream products such as fuel oil and chemicals. For example, the price of fuel oil may be affected by crude oil price fluctuations [126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session fluctuations increase, and it may maintain strength in the short term. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strong - side oscillation, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the outer market is temporarily stable. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillation market. The supply increases, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to pay attention to position management before the holiday, and the trend strength is 0 [2][64][69]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The port inventory accumulates, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is 0 [2][64][70]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][113]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][114]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the rebound space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][122]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related (Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil)**: - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][159][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean drive is not significant, and it is mainly operated within a range. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. - **Soybean**: It is in an oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][163]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][167]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price corrects. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][172]. - **Eggs**: They are in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and they are strong in the short term. The price shows an upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill acquisitions. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][187]. - **Palm Oil**: It has a short - term rhythm rebound, but the height is limited. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. Others - **Iron Ore**: It is in a high - level repetition. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][45]. - **Rebar**: Macroeconomic support and industrial suppression coexist, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, with macroeconomic support and industrial suppression, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut starts, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Year - end production cuts disrupt, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Log**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][60]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][89]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][96]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][99]. - **Urea**: It runs in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][103]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term oscillation mainly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][151]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. It analyzes the market trends, fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading suggestions for each product [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation. Supply is marginally loose, with some domestic and overseas device changes. Demand from PTA devices decreases. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation before the holiday, and attention should be paid to position management [5][8]. - **PTA**: High - level oscillation. Supply increases as some devices restart. Demand from polyester has a marginal decline but remains at a high level. PTA maintains de - stocking, which is beneficial to the performance of the monthly spread and basis [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory accumulates again, and the trend is still weak. Although there are some supply - side reduction expectations, the current inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change. However, considering the cost factors, the inventory accumulation expectation is marginally improved, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber shows a wide - range oscillation. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and some tire enterprises have short - term maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which has a certain impact on the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate [12][13]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber follows the decline of the commodity index. The fundamentals have weakened marginally in the past two weeks, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [15][17]. 3.4 LLDPE - For LLDPE, the upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable. The raw material price rebounds, and the profit of the monomer link is compressed. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has some device changes. There is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [18][19]. 3.5 PP - PP is expected to have a stable and oscillating market. Multiple PDH devices are planned for maintenance in January. The cost side has some changes, and the demand side is weak. The overall fundamentals have limited support at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand side is weak, and the supply side has high - pressure due to high - start production in winter. The rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not reduce production, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January [24][26]. 3.7 Pulp - Pulp is in a weakly oscillating state. The price of imported pulp has increased in December, but the internal driving logic is differentiated. The overall demand is rigid, but the demand for different types of pulp varies. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [30][35]. 3.8 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has ups and downs, and the overall market trading flexibility has increased, but the shipment in most areas is still average [37]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol oscillates with support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation. It oscillates repeatedly within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - environment. The cost side provides support for the lower valuation [40][42]. 3.10 Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillating operation. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The driving force is neutral, and the 05 contract has support below. The upper and lower fundamental price limits are estimated [44][47]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for its price in 2026, but there are also risks such as high inventory of downstream products. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center of gravity throughout the year [48][51]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The price is weakly stable and oscillating, and the trading is light. The comprehensive production has decreased, and the downstream demand is not strong [52]. 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [54][55]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is in a weakly oscillating state. The valuation is at a low level, and although there may be phased rebounds, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the substantial large - scale maintenance plan on the supply side [63][64]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session volatility increases, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strongly oscillating state, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable [67]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in high - level oscillation. The core issues for the 2602 contract include the freight rate height, inflection point time, and price - decline rate. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and short on rallies in the medium - to - long term [69][82]. 3.17 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Staple Fiber**: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures price is in weak consolidation, the spot price is stable, and the sales are mostly weak. - **Bottle Chips**: It is in high - level oscillation. The upstream raw material futures price has decreased, and the factory price has been lowered. The market trading atmosphere is weak [84][85]. 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the scale paper mills' operating loads are basically stable, and the market new orders are few [87][88]. 3.19 Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. The inventory in the East China port has increased, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter of 2026 and may rebound in the second quarter [92][93].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低开震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差变动不大。贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂递盘。本周 在05贴水65附近商谈成交，下周在05贴水55成交，价格商谈区间在5020~5105。1月中下在05贴水55成交。今日主流现货基差在 05-63。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动增多，不过下游聚酯负荷也有所下调，PTA自身供需格局变动不大，期货盘面跟随成本端快速回落， 预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注宏观情绪及上下游装置变动。 2、基差：现货5 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-30 纸浆受资金出入影响，上涨承压后阶段 回落 油脂：盘面窄幅震荡，菜油基差略涨 蛋白粕：美豆出口面临压力，国产大豆拍卖豆粕承压 玉米/淀粉：临近交割，基差回归 生猪：出栏缩量，生猪期现反弹 天然橡胶：商品巨震，胶价小幅回落 合成橡胶：原料调涨，盘面坚挺运行 棉花：棉价减仓回调 白糖：反弹高度有限，下行压力仍存 纸浆：上涨承压后阶段回落，纸浆期货走势受资金出入影响 双胶纸：市场情绪回暖，双胶偏强运行 原木：交投清淡，盘面震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 纸浆观点：上涨承压后阶段回落，纸浆期货走势受资金出入影响 逻辑:期货昨日明显回落，现货端维持成交偏弱格局，当前期货资金主动 走势，期货涨跌与现货变化关系不大。基本面，当前利多驱动有：1、阔 叶浆在美金盘报价上行，同时国内仍处于下游生产高峰时期的状态下，价 格上涨仍能向下传导。随着针阔价差的收窄，阔叶浆的进一步强势预期， 一定程度上也支撑了针叶浆以及盘面的底部支撑逻辑。2、浆厂的停产带 来的供应减量预期与浆厂库存偏高形成对冲。3、浆厂实 ...

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