Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [9] Core Viewpoints - The overseas aluminum market has a structural shortage. The US aluminum spot premium has reached a new high, indicating that overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and there is still strength and resilience in overseas consumption. The overall domestic supply and demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, but the absolute value of social inventory is still low, and it is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is positive, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio, with limited downward potential. If the social inventory is smoothly depleted, the upward space for aluminum prices is expected to open [6]. - For alumina, the end of the rainy season in Guinea and the resumption of bauxite shipments, along with the release of inventory, increase the supply pressure. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the spot price is supported by purchases, there are currently no bullish factors in the fundamentals, and the price is undervalued, but there are potential disturbances in overseas mines [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 130 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,490 yuan/ton, with a change of 120 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 150 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,725 yuan/ton, closed at 21,665 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton. The highest price was 21,765 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 185,011 lots, and the open interest was 382,366 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 11, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, with a change of 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 64,142 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,225 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,795 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,935 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,960 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,831 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton (0.11% change). The highest price was 2,838 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,810 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 221,905 lots, and the open interest was 405,788 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 11, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use scrap aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical scrap aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 59,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 142 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The US aluminum spot premium has reached a new high, and the structural problems caused by tariffs and trade wars are intensifying. The overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and there is still strength and resilience in overseas consumption. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The reduction in production at an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant is expected to last for 11 - 12 months. The domestic social inventory has not shown a trend of depletion, and the spot premium has not recovered, but the absolute value of social inventory is low, and it is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is positive, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio, with limited downward potential. Attention should be paid to the depletion rhythm of social inventory [6]. Alumina - After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the supply pressure is increasing. The decline in ore prices has not improved the smelting losses of alumina. There has been no large - scale reduction in production on the supply side, and the expected new production capacity still exists. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the spot price is supported by purchases, there are currently no bullish factors in the fundamentals, and the price is undervalued, but there are potential disturbances in overseas mines [8].

化工日报 | 2025-11-12 我国10月乘用车零售量同环比双降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15095元/吨，较前一日变动-15元/吨；NR主力合约12125元/吨，较前一日变动-40 元/吨；BR主力合约10240元/吨，较前一日变动-35元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1835美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1710 美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10200元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传化 BR9000市场价10250元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 市场资讯 据第一商用车网初步统计，2025年10月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.3万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源）， 环比今年9月下降约12%，比上年同期的6.64万辆大幅增长约40%。今年1-10月，我国重卡市场累计销量超过了90 万辆，达到91.6万辆，同比增长约22%，预计在11月过后，累计销量就会超过100万 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,875 yuan/ton (down 78 yuan/ton or 1.97% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,979 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton or 0.72%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). With the restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and the decline in coal prices, EG showed a weak downward trend [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$57/ton (down $2/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -911 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons (up 9.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons (up 6.5 tons). With more arrival plans this week, inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level, and overseas device changes are limited. Arrival plans around mid - November are still moderately high, and port inventory is expected to gradually increase. On the demand side, polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. An inverse spread strategy is recommended for EG2601 - EG2605, and no cross - variety strategy is provided [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,875 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,979 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$57/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -911 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level [2]. International Price Difference No specific data or analysis on international price differences is provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons, and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons. Arrival plans this week are more, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Around mid - November, arrival plans are still moderately high, and port inventory is expected to gradually increase [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short-term may stop falling, but limited upward drive, mainly oscillating in the bottom range; - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and downstream device restart brings demand increment, driving the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot rebounds, and the futures price is supported to stop falling and consolidate. - The supply side has a phased reduction, but the supply is still loose, and the inventory pressure in the factory is still high. - The demand side is boosted by bargain hunting purchases, and the overall profit margin of downstream products has improved. The demand support for propylene may increase. - The cost support for propylene is limited due to the small increase in international oil prices and the continuous weakness of external propane. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5869 yuan/ton (-23), the East China spot price of propylene is 5875 yuan/ton (+25), the North China spot price of propylene is 5765 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis of propylene is 6 yuan/ton (+48), and the North China basis of propylene is -102 yuan/ton (+38). [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (+0%), the propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 133 US dollars/ton (-1), and the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 63 US dollars/ton (-2). [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The propylene import profit is -240 yuan/ton (+52). [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 43% (-0.34%), production profit is -15 yuan/ton (+0); - Epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 268 yuan/ton (-57); - N-butanol capacity utilization rate is 86% (+2%), production profit is -86 yuan/ton (+0); - Octanol capacity utilization rate is 71% (-18%), production profit is -173 yuan/ton (-50); - Acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 72% (+5%), production profit is 579 yuan/ton (-53); - Acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 78% (-1%), production profit is -158 yuan/ton (-45); - Phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 76% (-3%), production profit is -390 yuan/ton (-25). [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The propylene inventory in the factory is 49,820 tons (+4,770). [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral - Bullish [4] - Red Dates: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views - **Apple**: The current apple spot market is at a seasonal transition point, with cold - storage trading becoming dominant. Short - term price trends depend on the final storage scale and inventory structure, and high - quality apples are expected to maintain a stable and firm price. The year's commodity rate is low, and the inventory volume is lower than the same period last year [3][4]. - **Red Dates**: The red date futures price dropped slightly. The acquisition progress in Xinjiang has accelerated, and farmers' price - holding sentiment has weakened. The current harvesting progress is about 40% - 50%. The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the market has a pessimistic outlook. The actual consumption situation during the consumption season will be a key focus [7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Apple - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract was 9229 yuan/ton yesterday, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.76%) from the previous day. The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Recent Market Information**: The ground trading in late Fuji producing areas has ended, and cold - storage trading has begun. The acquisition of small fruits is active, and farmers are selling at market prices. The cold - storage trading in Gansu and Shaanxi has started, and the same - quality ex - warehouse prices are firmer than during the acquisition period. It is expected that high - quality apple prices will remain stable and firm in the short term, and general - quality apple prices will remain stable. The peak of cold - storage entry may occur this week [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The apple futures price rose slightly. The short - term price trend depends on the final storage scale and inventory structure. The ground trading in Shandong and Shanxi has ended, and the cold - storage entry work is in the later stage. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is still weak, and the demand side is under pressure. The ex - warehouse prices of farmers' apples in Shaanxi and Gansu are about 0.3 yuan higher than the ground prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Neutral - bullish. The supply of late Fuji has increased, but the annual commodity rate is low. Merchants are cautious about ordering general - quality apples. The cold - storage entry work is in the later stage, and the inventory volume is lower than last year [4]. Red Dates - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 9495 yuan/ton yesterday, down 90 yuan/ton (-0.94%) from the previous day. The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Recent Market Information**: The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar has accelerated, and the prices have slightly decreased by 0.20 yuan/kg. The acquisition in Hotan and Qiemo has basically ended. The new red dates in the Hebei sales area have been slightly listed, and downstream merchants are purchasing cautiously. It is expected that the spot prices will remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The red date futures price dropped slightly. The acquisition of long - staple cotton in Xinjiang is in the middle stage, and the acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar has accelerated. Farmers' price - holding sentiment has weakened. The new red dates in the Hebei sales area have been slightly listed, and downstream purchasing is cautious. It is expected that the spot prices will remain stable in the short term. The new - season jujube trees have over - exhausted, and a production reduction is a normal expectation. The jujube quality is better than last year. The actual consumption situation during the consumption season will be a key focus [7]. - **Strategy**: Neutral. The red date futures have dropped significantly recently, and market gaming has increased. The new - season red dates in the main producing areas have not been fully harvested. Attention should be paid to changes in acquisition prices, jujube quality, and consumption during the peak season [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Report's Core View - The pig market is in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and this pattern is difficult to change. The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October are expected to be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there is a risk of early slaughter if prices decline. The future pig supply remains in an oversupply state, and the slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will further increase the supply pressure [2] - The egg market also has a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a 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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, frequent disruptions at the mine end suggest that medium - to - long - term price rebounds should be monitored [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, as demand recovery falls short of expectations, de - stocking is slow, and cost support is weakening, stainless - steel prices are also likely to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 119,780 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 69,912 (-12,952) lots, and the open interest was 114,900 (-2,884) lots. In the past month, it had low volatility with an intraday price amplitude of around 1%, indicating a lack of clear market direction due to macro uncertainties and supply - demand contradictions [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the supply - demand price gap persists. Factory procurement enthusiasm is low. In the Philippines, some ports in the Surigao mining area are still recovering from typhoon impacts, and a new typhoon in the Zambales mining area may delay shipments by about 3 days. Overall, nickel ore supply remains stable. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron factories are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of each brand remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,292 (-241) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 253,404 (+300) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No specific strategies are provided [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,630 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 108,314 (+7,800) lots, and the open interest was 38,421 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and closing low. Fundamentally, there were few changes. The implementation of upstream production cuts was in doubt, the production of 300 - series stainless steel remained high, downstream demand did not improve, and de - stocking was slow. Coupled with the overall decline of the black - metal sector, stainless - steel prices trended downward in an oscillatory manner [3]. - **Spot**: Market confidence was further hit. Some traders continued to lower their quotes, but there was no improvement in transactions. Due to high previous purchase prices, the price - cut space for traders is expected to be limited. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 310 - 610 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 912.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No specific strategies are provided [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead price maintains a volatile pattern due to the tug - of - war between buyers and sellers. Low inventory and tight ore cost support the lead price, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may lead to a potential decline after a rise. It is recommended to buy low and sell high within the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$12.30/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,350 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,325 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,505 yuan/ton and closed at 17,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,855 lots, a decrease of 755 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 55,107 lots, a decrease of 3,618 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,575 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,435 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,485 yuan/ton and closed at 17,520 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared with the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted at a discount of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory sales; in the Hunan region, smelters' quoted premiums decreased, with a premium of 20 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, and some manufacturers still held back sales after selling out their inventory; in the Yunnan region, holders quoted at a discount of 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex - factory sales. The lead futures fluctuated and consolidated, and downstream battery enterprises mainly took delivery through long - term contracts, with the market trading volume gradually weakening in some regions [2] Inventory - On November 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 33,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 11, the LME lead inventory was 226,725 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Absolute price: Neutral. Due to low inventory and tight ore cost supporting the lead price, but considering the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer, be vigilant against a decline after a rise. Adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, production in the southwest region is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but both supply and demand are weakening. The decline in downstream products due to weak consumption has led to a drop in the polysilicon futures market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,265 yuan/ton and closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 270,959 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,079 lots, a change of - 176 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The domestic silicon - coal market showed a pattern of supply contraction, with a regional differentiation of "three increases, one decrease, and two stabilizations" since mid - October [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. As the monomer industry conference approached, most monomer factories had officially closed their offers and would resume quoting after the conference [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 11, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 53,600 yuan/ton and closing at 51,930 yuan/ton, a - 2.50% change from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 138,468 lots (125,974 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 324,598 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a - 0.77% change), silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a - 7.45% change), the weekly polysilicon production was 27,000.00 tons (a - 4.30% change), and the silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a - 5.55% change) [5]. Silicon Wafers - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers decreased. Two leading silicon wafer companies took the lead in reducing production, driving other companies to implement production cuts in November. The planned production in November is expected to decrease by 3 - 4GW compared to the previous month. The supply pattern of the silicon wafer market has deteriorated due to excessive contract manufacturing. In November, battery manufacturers tightened demand and limited procurement prices, leading to a sharp reduction in procurement orders and panic selling by second - and third - tier silicon wafer companies with tight cash flows. This caused the silicon material futures price to drop during trading on the 11th, but the spot price of silicon material remained unchanged as of the time of publication [7]. Battery Cells and Components - The prices of battery cells and components were generally stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, etc. The mainstream transaction prices of components also remained unchanged [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, and consider buying on dips for contracts during the dry season [4]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are proposed [4]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, with the price expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are proposed [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][7] Report Core View - Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification; medium - and long - term cotton prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure. Short - term sugar prices have limited downward space, while long - term prices may not be optimistic. Pulp prices are boosted by macro - sentiment but have limited fundamental improvement and upward space [2][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,668 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1108, up 17 from the previous day; the national average price was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1282, up 18 from the previous day. In October, Brazil's cotton exports were 294,000 tons, up 64.4% month - on - month and 4.6% year - on - year, with China and India as the main destinations, each accounting for 23%, and Bangladesh accounting for 14% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, macro - sentiment improved at the end of October, but due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed. With new cotton on the market in the Northern Hemisphere, supply pressure was released, and weak global textile consumption limited the short - term rebound of the outer market. Domestically, as the harvest progressed, the expected new cotton output declined, and the seed cotton purchase price stabilized and rebounded, supporting the market. However, new cotton was still expected to increase in production, and downstream demand was weak [1] Strategy - The short - term cotton price is under strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the medium and long term, with low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR01 + 280, down 5 from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of SR01 + 170, down 5 from the previous day. Analysts expected Brazil's central - southern region to crush 29.42 million tons of sugarcane in the second half of October, up 8.1% year - on - year, and produce 1.92 million tons of sugar, up 7.8% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil's strong exports and India's expected production rebound and increased exports suppressed market confidence. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle, limiting the rebound of raw sugar. Domestically, although new - season sugar production was expected to increase, the price was near the cost line, and strict syrup control policies supported the price, limiting the short - term decline [4] Strategy - In the short term, sugar prices should be treated with a volatile mindset. In the long term, domestic sugar supply and demand are expected to be loose, and prices may not be optimistic [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,484 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 56, down 1 from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 359, up 24 from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market price continued to rise, with some prices of imported softwood pulp and hardwood pulp increasing [5] Market Analysis - Supply: European pulp port inventory declined in September but was still high. Domestic pulp imports rebounded in September, and port inventory remained high. Demand: European and American pulp consumption was weak, and domestic demand was the core factor suppressing prices. Although there was new paper production capacity, terminal demand was insufficient, paper mills' operating rates declined, and profits shrank. During the peak season, downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement [6] Strategy - Pulp prices are boosted by macro - sentiment but have limited fundamental improvement and upward space. Attention should be paid to the implementation of demand in the fourth quarter [7]