1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to high开工, high inventory, weak demand, and limited cost support. The V2605 daily K - line should pay attention to the support near 4860 [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 4913 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan; the trading volume is 1121915 lots, a decrease of 38791 lots; the open interest is 1039839 lots, a decrease of 20469 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 998443 lots, a decrease of 29378 lots; the short positions are 1137859 lots, an increase of 10911 lots; the net long positions are - 139416 lots, a decrease of 40289 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 4890 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan) and 4930 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC are 4716.92 yuan/ton (down 15.77 yuan) and 4731.88 yuan/ton (down 26.25 yuan) respectively. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia are 680 and 660 US dollars/ton respectively (both unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 201 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2750 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2715 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 2541 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 402 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 433 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars) respectively; the CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 194 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 million tons, an increase of 1.49 million tons, including 52.74 million tons in East China (an increase of 1.12 million tons) and 4.91 million tons in South China (an increase of 0.37 million tons) [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative new housing construction area is 58769.96 million square meters, an increase of 5313.26 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 659890.29 million square meters, an increase of 3824.09 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, an increase of 2871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 19.9%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.93%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92%. From January 16th to 22nd, the average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC nationwide increased to 5175 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 4924 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased to - 800 yuan/ton with deeper losses, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 49 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension of tapping, and overseas raw material prices are likely to rise, strengthening cost support. Demand is weak, with slow domestic sales and high inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are strong. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. PP's supply pressure is relieved due to maintenance, while PE's standard product pressure increases. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal device maintenance [2]. LPG - The price is affected by factors such as inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates. The downstream PDH operating rate has decreased significantly, and the market situation needs to be further observed [3]. Urea - The supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, with the main contract of urea focusing on the range of 1,760 - 1,800 [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand. PVC is expected to have a downward adjustment in the market, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weakly volatile market. Soda ash is affected by inventory and demand, while glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the pre - holiday off - season [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Pure benzene's price may be under pressure at high levels due to factors such as increased import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and its price is also expected to be under pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply - side factors support the rise in oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is being depleted, but high production restricts the rebound space. The port inventory is slightly increasing, and the demand for MTO is weak [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX, PTA, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and seasonality. PX and PTA are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol has a pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term supply - demand [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned full - latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed to varying degrees, and the basis has also fluctuated [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries' production in November has changed, and indicators such as tire production, export volume, and import volume in December have also changed [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of bonded areas and factory warehouses has changed, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao have also changed [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries have changed, and the inventory of enterprises and society has decreased [2]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has increased, port inventory has decreased, and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed [3]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea futures contracts have fluctuated, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production has increased, inventory has decreased, and demand is weak [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures have decreased to varying degrees [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries have changed, and inventory has increased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash spot and futures have decreased, and the basis has changed [7]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed, and real - estate data has also changed [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different products have changed [8]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have decreased, and the spreads and cash flows have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [8]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil in different regions have changed [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have decreased, and the spreads and basis have changed [14]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory have changed, and upstream - downstream operating rates have also changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. have changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of POY, FDY, etc. have changed [16]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [16]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [16]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and inventory and operating rates have also changed [16].

| Millio | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月27日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 纯菜 | ★☆☆ | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 尿素 | 女女女 | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 绅碱 | 女女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内震荡整理。基本面上,期货盘面表现强势,叠加局部下游补库,带动买盘积极性。丙烯 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-28 气温下降，泰国东北部逐步停割 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16205元/吨，较前一日变动-25元/吨；NR主力合约13085元/吨，较前一日变动+0 元/吨；BR主力合约13045元/吨，较前一日变动-220元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15950元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15100元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1940美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1875 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12750元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨，同比增长 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The chemical sector's atmosphere has weakened, and the EG price has retreated. The EG main contract closed at 3938 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan/ton, -1.40% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3827 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton, -1.49% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was -119 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -37 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -665 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals in the main ports of East China this week are slightly high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is still high due to high supply and weak demand from January to February. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February. Overseas supply pressure will ease after the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants around the end of February. The demand side is weakening as the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented, and the weaving and polyester loads are accelerating their decline [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 3938 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan/ton, -1.40% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3827 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton, -1.49% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was -119 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -37 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -665 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Price Difference - Not elaborated in the content. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented, and the weaving and polyester loads were accelerating their decline, resulting in weakening rigid demand support [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals in the main ports of East China this week are slightly high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the 3900 yuan/ton support level. The EG fundamentals remain weak, and the valuation has deviated from the low range after continuous increases. Pay attention to capital dynamics and the relative valuation changes of ethylene downstream products after price increases [3]. - Inter-period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter-variety: None [3].

策略 单边：短期震荡偏强，前期多头可适当止盈 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 市场分析 石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-28 1、1月27日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3279元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.31%；持仓163341手，环比下降10433手，成交189561手，环比下跌32302手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3550元/吨；山东，3080—3240元/吨；华南，3200—3300元/吨； 华东，3180—3230元/吨。 虽然原油价格回落，但沥青成本端支撑仍存，昨日华东、华南沥青现货价格均出现上涨，山东价格相对持稳。当 前沥青市场主要驱动来自于成本端，盘面在定价委油供应收紧预期后一度进入震荡阶段。近日地缘局势升温，稀 释沥青贴水远月报价显著上涨，国内产业端远期备货积极性提升，带动盘面再度走强。目前来看，在美国意图加 强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉原油对国内炼厂供应收紧的预期已在逐步兑现，沥青成本端支撑较为坚 挺，但终端需求的疲软与替代原料的存在，叠加近期基差的下跌，则将制约盘面的上方空间。 现货价格稳中有升，盘面 ...

PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4911元/吨（-48）；华东基差-211元/吨（+48）;华南基差-191元/吨（+18）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4720元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-23元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-800元/吨（-137）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-49元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-5.1美元/吨（+11.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.8万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存57.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率80.14%（-0.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.04%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率77.98%（-1.10%）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-01-28 山东烧碱主力下游再次下调采购价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC： PVC4月1日起出口退税取消，4月之前存抢出口情况，出口订单延续高位。当前PVC市场整体供需格局延续弱势。 供应端，国内PVC供应充裕，福建万华检修及山东恒通临时故障，暂无新增检修企业；下游开工因春节前降价促 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-28 需求方面，聚酯开工率86.2%（环比-2.1%），近期织造负荷加速下滑，下游开始1月底附近将集中放假；因涤丝价 格跟随原料快速上涨，同时终端难向下游传导，以消化原料备货为主，在原料快速上涨下被动补库。聚酯方面， 聚酯负荷加速下降，春节检修计划陆续兑现，维持1、2月月均负荷估计88.5%、80.5%，关注检修计划兑现。 PF方面，现货生产利润36元/吨（环比+106元/吨）。直纺涤短跟随原料大幅上涨，但需求疲软，涨幅不及原料。负 荷方面个别有小幅提升，大多维持平稳运行，涨价带动销售，短纤库存去化明显。需求方面，纯涤纱及涤棉纱部 分适度跟涨，纯涤纱销售顺畅，库存去化；涤棉纱销售适度好转，库存小幅下降，现金流亏损扩大。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费543元/吨(环比变动-50元/吨)。近期聚酯瓶片工厂春节检修计划陆续执行，年前去库较为 顺畅，市场现货供应量小幅回落，上涨期间成交以贸易商适量补货为主，聚酯瓶片加工费反弹。 资金减仓，PTA大幅回撤 市场要闻与数据 上周资金流入化工板块，作为基本面预期偏好的品种，PTA大幅增仓上涨;周二资金从化工板块流出，PTA减仓13.6 万手，再度大 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as "Neutral" [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market shows a complex situation with short - term support from pre - holiday stocking but facing downstream and price - difference pressures, and long - term trends depend on policy implementation; the sugar market is expected to bottom - out with short - to - medium - term oscillations; the pulp market will continue to oscillate at a low level due to insufficient domestic fundamental improvements [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,953 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the yarn output of large - scale enterprises was 2.132 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of 4.56%; the cloth output was 3.01 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.12% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the US cotton export signing progress is slow. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton year has a large increase in production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Although pre - holiday stocking led to good spot transactions, downstream new orders decreased, and finished product inventories were high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pre - holiday stocking supports cotton prices in the short term, but the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures. The long - term trend depends on the implementation of policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average of 108,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the short - term export in the Northern Hemisphere is limited, which supports the raw sugar price in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply from Brazil and Thailand will increase, and the market is expected to be loose. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. In the domestic market, Guangxi sugar mills are in the peak crushing period, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high, but the syrup import has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage, with limited downward space [4] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the short - to - medium - term sugar price to be in the process of bottom - out oscillation, and pay attention to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,342 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with a few weakening [6] Market Analysis - The supply side was affected by overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance and price increases, but the global wood pulp inventory is still increasing. The demand side shows marginal improvement in Europe in November, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has weakened, and prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash continue to fluctuate due to insufficient downstream demand, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are also in a state of oscillatory operation with no prominent supply - demand contradictions [1][3] - The strategies for glass and silicomanganese are to expect an oscillatory trend, and for soda ash, it is an oscillatory and weakening trend, while for silicon - iron, it is also an oscillatory trend [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass 2605 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and some manufacturers slightly raised prices with a fair trading atmosphere. The soda ash 2605 contract mainly oscillated, and downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass fundamentals are still weak. With the Spring Festival approaching, production line cold - repairs continue, and there are still expectations of production suspension. Recently, shipments have improved, and inventory pressure on the supply side has eased. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday. For soda ash, 1719 warehouse receipts were recorded yesterday. As the delivery month approaches, a sharp increase in single - day warehouse receipts suppresses prices. The latest data shows an increase in inventory, weak demand, and deepening supply - demand contradictions. Considering the warehouse - receipt game in the delivery month, soda ash prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese main contract showed a weakening trend during the day with a large increase in positions. The alloy cost has fair support, with the 6517 northern market price ranging from 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton. An eastern steel mill set the silicomanganese tender price at 5830 yuan/ton today, with a tender quantity of 4000 tons. The ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate weakly yesterday, the ferrosilicon market had a slight adjustment, and the market sentiment was rather flat. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5750 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities being put into operation, so the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, the demand for silicomanganese is expected to improve. The recent South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, and it may increase the manganese ore cost in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes. For ferrosilicon, the fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills' production and winter stockpiling, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering that the domestic electricity price is expected to decline further next year and the overall ferrosilicon production capacity is in surplus, the price increase is restricted. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of ferrosilicon and the electricity price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]