节前资金离场规避长假风险 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 需求分析 4 第二章 供应分析 8 第三章 供需平衡及库存 11 GALAXY FUTURES 1 碳酸锂后市行情展望 综合分析 行情展望及策略推荐： GALAXY FUTURES 3 1.1.1 新能源汽车——淡季来临但好于预期 单位：万辆 单位：万辆 左轴：万辆 右轴：% 单位：GWh 新能源汽车销量结构 中国动力电芯产量 0 50 100 150 200 2022 2023 2024 2025 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 50 100 150 200 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 纯电动 插混 纯电动占比 中国新能源汽车销量 中国新能源乘用车零售 0 50 100 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 20 ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 供需双降，工业硅关注大厂开工情 况，多晶硅偏弱震荡，观望为主 工业硅&多晶硅月报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/02/06 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结：工业硅 ◆ 截至2026/1/30，华东地区553#（不通氧）工业硅现货报价9200元/吨，月环比持平；421#工业硅现货报价9650元/吨，折盘面价8850元/吨， 月环比持平。 ◆ 成本：据百川盈孚数据，据百川盈孚数据，1月末调研工业硅主产区成本中，新疆平均成本报8487.50元/吨（在产企业综合成本，下同）； 云南地区报9718.00元/吨；内蒙地区报8960.00元/吨。 ◆ 供给：2026年1月，百川盈孚口径下工业硅产量32.01万吨，环比-3.58万吨，同比+2.14万吨或+7.18%。 ◆ 需求： SMM口径下1月多晶硅产量1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report For Soybean Meal - The overall supply and demand of soybean meal are loose, with pre - holiday supply and demand remaining stable and potential risk disturbances after the holiday. The CBOT soybean futures price rebound is limited, and the market will trade repeatedly between the expectations of supply tightening and South American bumper harvest. The soybean meal 05 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2860 [6]. For Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed meal market continues to be in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market is greatly affected by news related to imported rapeseed supply. The rapeseed meal 05 contract will return to the trading range of 2200 - 2430. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [50]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal International Situation - The new US bio - diesel policy boosts soybean oil demand, increasing the expected soybean crushing volume in the US and supporting the US soybean futures price. Brazil's soybean production is raised, and it has entered the harvest season with a high probability of a bumper harvest, which restricts the rebound of futures prices. South American soybeans are about to enter the peak shipping season, and there may be selling pressure on CNF premiums. The future trading focus of the US soybean futures lies in the implementation progress of US soybean demand and the final confirmation of South American production. The planting area of new - crop US soybeans may shrink [6]. - According to the USDA's January supply - demand report, the global and US soybean ending stocks are expected to increase, with the US soybean production slightly up, exports down, and crushing up. The annual average price is expected to decrease [7][8]. - The ratio of US soybean to corn has decreased, which may reduce the planting area of new - crop US soybeans. The February US Agricultural Outlook Forum and the March planting intention report will provide more guidance [12]. Domestic Supply and Demand - Due to the price advantage, China's demand for imported soybeans mainly comes from South America. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans has rebounded. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's soybean production and exports will increase in the 2025/26 season. Although China has adjusted tariff measures, commercial purchases of US soybeans are still difficult, and mainly policy - based purchases are carried out [14][17][19]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at ports is decreasing, and long - term purchases are being carried out gradually. The procurement progress of different shipment months in 2026 varies [26][29]. - The operating rate of oil mills has declined slightly, but the crushing volume is still higher than the same period last year. In January 2026, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume decreased from the previous month but increased year - on - year [30][33]. - Before the holiday, downstream replenishment continued, leading to a reduction in oil mill soybean meal inventory, which supported the spot price and basis. In January, the inventory of national oil mill soybean meal decreased slightly, and the year - on - year increase continued to expand [34][36]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of the soybean meal 05 contract is 290 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 contract spread is - 102 yuan/ton [41]. Rapeseed Meal International Situation - The ICE rapeseed futures price first fell and then rose last month. The new US bio - diesel policy boosted soybean oil demand, driving up the vegetable oil market. The improvement of China - Canada economic and trade relations, with China expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products, led to an increase in rapeseed futures prices. The settlement price of the rapeseed futures main contract increased by 6.43% month - on - month [49]. - Statistics Canada raised the forecast of new - crop rapeseed production in 2025 to a record 21.8 million tons, higher than market expectations [53]. Domestic Supply and Demand - The improvement of China - Canada economic and trade relations is expected to improve the supply structure of rapeseed products. Chinese oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are at a low level. Due to the low - season of winter aquaculture, the demand for rapeseed meal feed is small, and oil mills have stopped operating. The market is still in a situation of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed meal price is expected to repair the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal after a decline, which may trigger protein substitution demand [49]. - There are no new purchases of imported Canadian rapeseed, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills is at a low level. The arrival volume of rapeseed at major oil mills in February is about 120,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills in the 5th week is 58,000 tons [62][63]. - Rapeseed crushing plants have basically stopped operating. In the 5th week, the operating rate of rapeseed crushing plants is about 0%, and the rapeseed meal output is 120 tons [67]. - In the off - season of demand, the downstream trading volume of rapeseed meal is small, and the提货 volume is at a low level compared with the same period last year. In the 5th week, the 提货 volume of coastal rapeseed meal is 200 tons, and the spot trading volume of the rapeseed meal market is 7000 tons [68][70]. - Oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory is zero, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal at ports is continuously decreasing. In the 5th week, the oil mill rapeseed meal inventory is 1000 tons, the granular rapeseed meal inventory is 121,000 tons, and the consumption is 20,000 tons [72][74]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of the rapeseed meal 05 contract is 264 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 contract spread is - 21 yuan/ton [80]. Spread Summary - The soybean oil - meal ratio is 2.94, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 474 yuan/ton [84].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with geopolitical situation as the main driver. In the medium - and long - term, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, leading to inventory accumulation [7][8][12]. - **Polyester**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term. Demand for polyester may decline further before the Spring Festival but is expected to improve after the holiday [30][32][37]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by the weakening downstream procurement and the overall market. [44][45] - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the soda ash market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds, and pay close attention to supply - demand changes and policy trends [92]. 4. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined last week. The WTI main contract fell 3.35% to $63.54/barrel, Brent fell 3.05% to $67.7/barrel, and SC fell 1.98% to 461.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term focus on the US - Iran situation, and expect oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to whether US military actions have a substantial impact on production and transportation facilities [8]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are full of uncertainties. Iran is important in the crude oil market, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may affect oil prices. The US - India agreement on Russian oil imports is also uncertain [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil production decreased last week, and refinery operating rates declined slightly. EIA and IEA are both pessimistic about the oil market in 2026, expecting supply to grow faster than demand and inventory to accumulate [11][12]. Polyester 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: PTA prices fell last week due to increased inventory and weak downstream demand. Ethylene glycol prices also declined due to weakening cost support and seasonal demand decline [30]. - **Operation Suggestions**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term [32]. 4.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: Polyester operating rates are expected to decline further, and the demand for PTA and ethylene glycol is likely to weaken before the Spring Festival but may improve after the holiday [33]. - **PTA**: PTA supply may slightly decrease, but the overall supply - demand situation remains unchanged. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [34][35]. - **MEG**: The开工 rate of the ethylene glycol industry increased slightly last week, and the inventory at major ports in East China increased. The short - term supply - demand structure is still weak [36][37]. Paper Pulp 4.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5,254 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week - on - week. Spot prices of various wood pulps also declined [44]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by downstream procurement and market sentiment [45]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Pulp Shipment Volume**: In November, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased, while that of broad - leaf pulp increased [46]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In December, China's pulp import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [53]. - **Pulp Inventory**: As of the end of November, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous and broad - leaf pulp increased. As of the end of January, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [59]. Soda Ash 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The main contract of soda ash (SA605) fluctuated widely last week, with the price center moving down. Production decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory increased [85]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not easily go long. In the short term, the market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [92]. 4.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash industry decreased slightly last week, and the weekly production decreased. New production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure remains high [93][94]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 5, the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased, indicating an imbalance between supply and demand [103][104]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic soda ash spot market was weak and volatile, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton next week [106][108]. - **Downstream**: The float glass industry is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand and increasing inventory, which has a negative impact on soda ash demand. The photovoltaic glass market is in a "weak - stable" state, and the long - term overcapacity problem remains [109][110][112]. - **Summary**: The soda ash market is facing a structural imbalance. The key to solving the problem lies in expanding exports and accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity [113].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel futures market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, leading to a decline in prices across global markets [1][2]. Market Performance - The latest closing price for London nickel (LME) is $17,060, down $270 per ton, a decrease of 1.56%, with a trading volume of 8,626 contracts [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai nickel main contract (2603) closed at 134,250 yuan per ton, down 1,130 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.83% [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market is characterized by "oversupply and demand vacuum" ahead of the Spring Festival, with downstream industries like stainless steel and new energy battery manufacturers halting production and procurement [2]. - LME nickel inventory stands at 286,071 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous day, while global refined nickel production has increased by 22.8% year-on-year [1][2]. Industry Chain Status - The entire nickel industry chain is in a state of dormancy, with upstream mining prices high but lacking domestic demand, and downstream processing enterprises experiencing a sharp decline in operating rates [3]. Short-term Price Forecast - The main contract for Shanghai nickel is expected to test the key support level of 130,000 yuan per ton, with multiple pressures from macroeconomic factors, weak fundamentals, and policy adjustments making price increases difficult [4]. - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance, with light or no positions during the holiday, while traders should adopt a quick in-and-out strategy [4]. - Post-holiday, the focus will shift back to fundamentals, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics as downstream production resumes, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [4].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 橡胶：预期降温 周四，国产全乳胶 16000 元/吨，环比上日下跌 200 元/吨；泰国 20 号混合胶 15180 元/吨，环比上日下跌 120 元/吨。 原料端：昨日泰国胶水报收 59.0 泰铢/公斤，环比上日上涨 0.2 泰铢/公斤，泰国杯胶价格报收 54.0 泰铢/公斤，环比上日上涨 0.2 泰铢/公斤；云南停割；海 南停割。 截至 2026 年 2 月 1 日，中国天然橡胶社会库存 128.1 万吨，环比增加 0.9 万吨，增幅0.7%。中国深色胶社会总库存为 85.3 万吨，增 0.7%。其中青岛现货库 存增 1.2%；云南降0.8%；越南 10#增 2%；NR 库存小计降 0.5%。中国浅色胶社会总库存为 42.8 万吨，环比增0.8%。其中老全乳胶环比降 0.5%，3L 环比增 5%，RU 库存小计增 1.4%。 观点：随着北半球冬季来临，全球即将进入低产季，也代表着单边价格的定价框架将从供需平衡的动态定价转换至存量库存的静态定价，在近期商品市场预 期全面走强的背景下，预计短期内 RU&NR&Sicom 仍将高位震荡。向后看，尽 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 甲醇供应压力较大 宝城期货 陈栋 受益于中东地缘风险升温，外部进口预期下降，国内港口高库存缓解，去化节奏有所加快。同时下游 烯烃需求维持弱复苏，供需结构略有改善。在偏多因素驱动下，1 月下旬以来，国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈 现震荡上行的走势，期价摆脱 2200-2300 元/吨箱体区间束缚，一度走高至 2394 元/吨一线。不过随着地缘 风险弱化，甲醇期货开始回吐溢价，预计后市甲醇期货走势或由供需基本面所主导。 地缘风险弱化 甲醇回吐溢价 伊朗作为全球甲醇出口核心国，其局势紧张通过供应收缩、物流受阻、成本抬升、情绪溢价四大路径 传导至国内市场，成为今年 1 月下旬以来国内甲醇期货波动的核心变量。首先，伊朗甲醇产能超 1500 万 吨/年，2026 年 1 月受冬季限气叠加地缘局势双重影响，90%以上装置停车检修，8 条生产线全面停运，涉 及产能 1300 万吨/年，日均产量降至 6000 吨以下，产量和出口能力大幅萎缩。叠加美国对伊朗甲醇运输船 实施制裁，海运物流受阻，船期延迟，致使伊朗甲醇到港成本进一步抬升，供应紧张预期增强。其次， ...

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 4 拐拐拐拐 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 周内镍价主要跟随宏观情绪指引，贵金属及有色板块带领盘面大幅回调，关注资金动向及盘面企稳信号。供应端，菲律宾及印尼主产区正值雨季 | | | | ，镍矿发运持续受阻，矿价支撑较强。此外，镍矿配额发放节奏仍对镍价形成阶段性扰动，然而镍自身基本面维持弱势，累库趋势未出现拐点， 当前盘面多空博弈加剧，短期或难走出趋势性行情。 | | 镍矿价格 | 偏多 | 截至2月2日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别+0、+0.5、+0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, and gives an "oscillating" view for each product [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $1.93 to $65.14/barrel (3.05% increase), Brent April contract rose $2.13 to $69.46/barrel (3.16% increase), and SC2603 rose 15.2 yuan to 473.5 yuan/barrel (3.32% increase). The US - Iran negotiation is facing twists and turns. EIA reported that US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased last week. Cold - snap - induced output decline supports oil prices, but geopolitical variables cause fluctuations. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2603) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) rebounded. The supply of both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, while the bunker fuel加注 activity is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. Affected by geopolitics and crude oil costs, the fundamentals are mixed with long and short factors, and there is pressure in the follow - up. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2603) rebounded. This week, the social inventory rate increased, the refinery inventory level decreased, and the plant operating rate decreased. In the early and middle of February, the inventory in the north is for downstream stocking, and the inventory in the south has some arbitrage demand. During the Spring Festival, the refinery and social inventories will increase. The asphalt is less volatile than crude oil, and the cracking spread has been repaired. The basis has weakened. Refineries are looking for alternative raw materials, and the production schedule may be adjusted later. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and raw material imports [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605, EG2605, and PX 603 all rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are slightly differentiated and generally weak. Multiple MEG devices have restart, maintenance, and shutdown plans. With the decline of crude oil prices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Polyester raw material prices are expected to oscillate with costs. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - end price fluctuations, and the risk of insufficient demand recovery in late February [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts (RU2605, NR, BR) all rose. As of February 1, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. The natural rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The rubber fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external macro - factors [5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot prices in different regions and the prices of downstream products are given. The domestic methanol production is expected to decrease slightly in February, and the import volume will decline. The demand from eastern MTO devices will decrease. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load may put pressure on inventory reduction. The methanol price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [5]. - **Polyolefin**: On Wednesday, the prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. The supply is expected to increase slightly. In February, downstream enterprises will enter the holiday, leading to passive inventory increase. After the Spring Festival, the market will start to digest inventory. The fundamentals are not strongly supported in February, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of refineries and society. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted strongly. In February, the enterprise maintenance is less, and the production will remain high. The real - estate construction is weakening, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The "rush - to - export" demand is generated due to the cancellation of export tax - rebate on April 1. There is an expectation of supply reduction in the future, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, basis change, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending January 30, US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased due to winter storms. Crude oil production dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, and the crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 743,000 barrels [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the Iran - US talks in Oman, stating that the talks will be held at around 10 a.m. on the 6th in Muscat. Earlier, an Iranian official source said the talks were cancelled due to new US conditions and differences in the negotiation issues [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle - chip [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [30][33][37][38][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil (internal and external markets, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [59][62][64]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash - flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple "Outstanding Analyst" awards and led the energy research team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research and has served many listed companies [71]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in Applied Economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple industry analyst awards and her team has won industry service awards. She is deeply involved in domestic and foreign energy industry research [72]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple analyst awards and her team has won a research team award. She is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [73]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree. He has passed the CFA Level III exam and has experience combining financial theory with industrial operations [74].

进入2月份，受外盘原油、贵金属价格大幅回调影响，国内商品价格多数下跌，但尿素行情并未受太大影响，保持 高位震荡调整状态。这是尿素自身供需博弈的结果。 供应及限价决定价格上限 春节前，主要需求为复合肥冬储肥以及储备性质的需求，这成为支撑行情的关键因素，也直接决定价格难以出现趋 势性下行。复合肥方面，开工率持续保持高位运行，最高约50%，其对原料的采购，成为支撑行情的关键因素。同 时，农业方面的采购也是春节前支撑尿素行情的重要因素。一是苏皖冬腊肥的使用，造成局部农业刚需增加；二是 中原地区小麦返青肥的备货以及国家淡储，锁定较多流动性，尤其是目前农业市场上逢低采购的心态，给行情带来 较强支撑。 煤炭价格企稳 进入2月份，前期持续下行的煤炭价格企稳，北方港口5500大卡报价在690～700元/吨，无烟煤价格甚至出现小幅上 涨。这使得尿素成本端受到小幅支撑，间接造成尿素价格在春节前难以出现大幅下跌。 综合来看，虽然春节前处于需求淡季，且供应增加迅速，市场看似供大于求，但国储以及农业储备采购，加之套保 货源的存在，锁定较多流动性，市场呈现供需紧平衡状态，这造成期现货价格暂无太大下跌空间，而国家对最高价 格又有一定限制，决 ...