Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped from 3800 yuan to 1860 yuan per bottle, while the stock price has also declined, leading to a loss of 250 billion yuan in market value [2][9]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - The market price of Moutai has halved, but the factory price and suggested retail price remain unchanged, indicating that the losses are primarily borne by distributors and scalpers [7][9]. - Moutai's suggested retail price is 1499 yuan per bottle, with a wholesale price of 969 yuan, but market prices have historically exceeded these figures [5][9]. - In 2024, Moutai's production cost per bottle is only 87.89 yuan, allowing for substantial profit margins even at current market prices [9]. Group 2: Market and Sales Trends - Despite the price drop, Moutai's sales volume has increased, with total production rising from 3.93 million tons in 2016 to 5.63 million tons in 2024 [15][25]. - The core consumer base for Moutai consists of individuals aged 40 and above, primarily for business and gifting purposes, rather than younger consumers [15][18]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to changes in supply and demand dynamics, including increased direct sales and a doubling of production capacity [20][25]. - The shift towards direct sales has reduced the pricing power of distributors, leading to a more competitive market environment [24][20]. - There is a significant amount of social inventory, estimated at 1.3 billion bottles, which exacerbates price declines as holders rush to sell [31][28]. Group 4: Industry Context - The overall high-end liquor market is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reporting losses, while Moutai's profit growth has slowed to single digits for the first time in a decade [32][40]. - The average inventory turnover for distributors has reached 900 days, leading to reduced confidence in stockpiling products [35][40]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Institutional investors are pulling back from Moutai due to a lack of short-term recovery prospects, with a notable decrease in the number of funds holding Moutai shares [37][40]. - The decline in Moutai's price is viewed as a correction of inflated valuations, returning focus to its core value as a quality product rather than a speculative asset [44][46].

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings are as follows: - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [10] - **PX**: Oscillating weakly [12] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly [13] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly [14] - **Styrene**: Oscillating weakly [17] - **MEG**: Oscillating weakly [19] - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating weakly [22] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating weakly [23] - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillation [26] - **Urea**: Oscillation [27] - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillation [30] - **PP**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PL**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PVC**: Partial oscillation [35] - **Caustic Soda**: Medium - long - term partial oscillation [36] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil futures continued to decline on Monday. If the EU introduces strong sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate. Chemical prices also continued to fall, but some varieties with good fundamentals showed positive arbitrage signs. The energy and chemical industry as a whole will continue the pattern of oscillating consolidation [1][2][3]. - For each specific product, the prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and cost support, showing different trends of oscillation, weakening, or strengthening [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, the weak - reality pattern is reflected in inventory year - on - year. The resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region in Iraq may improve the implementation rate of Iraq's production increase. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with risks mainly concentrated in the geopolitical area [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price oscillates below 3,500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to continue increasing production and geopolitical escalation offset the decline in demand. The pricing power of asphalt futures may return to Shandong. The current market expects high - start and low - inventory to digest production pressure, but the invisible inventory in South China is a concern [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price oscillates weakly. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to increase production, geopolitical escalation, and a significant increase in Russia's fuel oil exports in early September have led to a weakening of the fuel oil cracking spread. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It may face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand and maintain low - valuation operation [10]. - **PX**: Supply - demand margin weakens, cost has no obvious support, and processing fees are under pressure. Oil prices are weak, and the chemical market sentiment is poor. The delay of some PX device maintenance and the increase in downstream PTA device maintenance drag down PX demand to some extent [12]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and there is no continuous positive in supply - demand. Cost performance is poor, and the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The downstream demand is affected by the National Day holiday, and there is no obvious positive support [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The future outlook is still pessimistic, and the price returns to decline. Although there was a short - term boost at the beginning of the week, with the implementation of interest - rate cut benefits and the impact of news such as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the price declined. Before the end of the year, it is difficult to destock, especially with high import pressure in October [14]. - **Styrene**: There is insufficient fundamental positive, and the price resumes decline. The contradiction lies in the difficulty of destocking high inventories in the upstream and downstream. Although there is a destocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory accumulation cycle from November to December [17]. - **MEG**: Before the festival, the port shipment performance is poor, and the port inventory accumulates. Cost support is not obvious, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in the long - term [18]. - **Short Fiber**: Inventory is slightly destocked, and processing fees are firm. The support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price mainly follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The processing fees have strengthened bottom support during the peak season [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: Low prices stimulate some factories to purchase, and processing fees operate stably. The cost support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price oscillates and declines. However, due to its own limited driving force, the decline is limited, and processing fees expand passively [23]. - **Methanol**: There is still a certain stocking demand before the festival, and the methanol futures price oscillates and declines. The price of upstream manufacturers has decreased, but the low inventory level in the inland area and the stocking demand before the National Day support the market. There is a contradiction between high inventory pressure in the port in the near - term and the expected overseas shutdown in the far - term [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of looseness is difficult to change, and the futures price is continuously under pressure along the cost line. On September 22, the supply - side daily output and operating rate continued to increase, while the demand - side support was insufficient, and the export expectation was weakening [27]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream transactions still increase in volume, and the price oscillates and declines. Affected by factors such as oil price oscillation, macro - atmosphere, and supply - demand situation, although the downstream demand may have certain support before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the overall fundamental situation is still under pressure [30]. - **PP**: It oscillates and declines, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the previous low. Affected by oil price and macro - factors, it has reached near the low point in June, and there is still some support. Although there is some downstream restocking demand before the festival, the supply - side pressure still exists [31]. - **PL**: It follows PP to fluctuate and oscillates and declines in the short - term. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the willingness to further reduce prices is limited. The PP - PL spread oscillates around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally [32]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment declines, and it should be treated with caution and weakly. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. The production may decline, the downstream demand improves, and the signing of orders improves [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Strong expectation but weak reality, and the futures price is partial to oscillation. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the fundamental situation of caustic soda still has pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The inventory receipt volume of Weiqiao is high, and the purchase price has been lowered. However, the expected stocking of alumina for caustic soda in 2026Q1 is strong [36]. 3.2 Product Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: It shows the cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - product spreads of various products, reflecting the price relationships and changes among different products and different contract periods [38][39][40]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although specific data are not detailed in the summary part, it is expected to further analyze the basis and spread of various chemical products to provide references for market participants [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) show different trends of increase and decrease, reflecting the overall performance of the commodity market on September 22, 2025 [281][283].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon 11 - contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 6.65%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will experience neutral and volatile adjustments [4][5]. - The polysilicon 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will continue to decrease, demand will continue to recover, cost support will remain stable, and the market will experience bearish and volatile adjustments [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The opening price on Monday was 8725 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 9305 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.65% [4]. - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, a 3.71% increase. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. In terms of different downstream sectors, the polysilicon inventory is lower than the historical average, while the organic silicon and aluminum alloy inventories are higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase; the sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; and the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 0.84% increase [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The opening price on Monday was 53,630 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 52,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.73% [7]. - **Supply**: The production last week was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer production last week was 13.92 GW, a 0.28% increase; the battery cell production is increasing, and the component production is also increasing. The overall demand is showing a continuous recovery [7][8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease, at a historical low [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports [18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report presents the trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise start - up rates in different regions [20][21][22]. - **Cost**: It shows the cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the production, consumption, import, export, and balance situations [28][31]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the production, price, cost, profit, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products [34][36]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories [54][57][60]. 3. Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience neutral and volatile adjustments next week [77]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience bearish and volatile adjustments next week [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific content about PMI is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [10][13]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Spread - No specific content about the futures - spot price spread is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific content about import profits is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific content about warehouse receipts is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - fiber: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is weak. In September, the supply and demand are both strong. With low prices, the replenishment support is strong, but the cost support is insufficient, showing a unilateral volatile and weak trend. The recommended strategy is to hold the inter - period positive spread [7]. - Bottle chips: The cost support is insufficient, showing a volatile and weak trend. In September, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The low - price procurement support is strong, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The recommended strategy is to go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - fiber (PF) 1.1 Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is relatively high; the disk processing fee is 970 yuan/ton, and the processing fee and inter - month spread valuations are basically reasonable, while the basis is high [7]. 1.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory's average operating rate has slightly increased to 95.4%, and the spinning direct - spun polyester staple fiber operating rate is 98%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future [7]. - Demand: In the second half of the week, when the price dropped to a low level, downstream procurement increased. The short - fiber inventory decreased, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 7.8 days and the physical inventory at 18 days. In September, the downstream operating load increased month - on - month, and each link was in the trend of seasonal inventory reduction [7]. 1.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: Hold the inter - period positive spread - Cross - variety: None [7] 2. Bottle chips (PR) 2.1 Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of the October and November disk contracts are 400 - 420 yuan/ton, all of which are over - estimated [8]. 2.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory maintains production cuts, with the operating rate at around 81%. The new Fuhai plant is expected to be put into operation in late October or at the end of the month [8]. - Demand: Domestically, the beverage factory's operating rate has dropped to around 85%. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has slightly decreased to 14.5 days. The export volume is expected to maintain at around 600,000 tons in August and September [8]. 2.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8] 3. Cost and Raw Materials - PTA: It is operating weakly, and the warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out [35] - MEG: The subsequent supply pressure will increase month - on - month [44] - Cost and profit: The cost has decreased, and the profit has been repaired. The polymerization cost has dropped to around 5400 yuan/ton, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level [46] 4. Inventory - Polyester factories' overall PTA inventory has increased, and the domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has slightly decreased to around 14.5 days. It is expected to have a slight inventory accumulation in September [50][55] 5. Device Changes - In September, about 400,000 tons of the planned 1,000,000 - ton device will resume production. Some factories are maintaining production cuts, and new devices such as Fuhai are expected to be postponed [56] 6. Demand - Beverage consumption from January to August 2025 is weaker year - on - year. However, there are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation. The demand for edible oil is neutral, and the demand for sheet materials is driven by the expansion of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market and the take - away war [63][67][72] 7. Export - In July 2025, the export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices increased year - on - year. The main export destinations are Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe. There are anti - dumping policies and investigations in some countries [82][84][93] 8. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - In September 2025, it is in a tight balance to a slightly inventory - accumulating state, and the pressure will increase in the future. The supply assumption is that mainstream factories maintain production cuts, and new devices will be put into operation. The demand assumption is that downstream demand will increase by 5% year - on - year during the peak season, and the export volume will maintain at around 600,000 tons [94][96]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been realized, and steel inventories continue to accumulate. The glass and soda ash markets show factory inventory destocking and significant downward movement in the futures market. The double - silicon market features firm spot prices and strong alloy performance [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy for Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, glass futures fluctuated downward. Downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs. With the recent price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous period, and factory inventory was 60.908 million heavy boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease. There is still a supply - demand contradiction in the glass market, and the short - term premium in the futures market suppresses price increases [1]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, soda ash futures also fluctuated downward. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking. This week, the operating rate was 85.53%, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, production was 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, and inventory was 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% month - on - month decrease. The supply - demand imbalance will continue with new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter, and the current premium in the futures market further suppresses price increases [1]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy for Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, manganese silicon showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. The manganese ore market maintained a price - supporting sentiment. The final price of the mainstream steel tender was 6,000 yuan/ton, with the price in the northern market at 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Production and sales slightly increased, but enterprise inventory rose due to continuous production growth. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern tends to be loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate and strengthen. The market sentiment was average, with the price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas at 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton and 75 - grade ferrosilicon at 6,000 - 6,050 yuan/ton. Production and sales were differentiated, and factory inventory reached a high level, suppressing prices. The industry has an obvious supply surplus, and profits are constrained without industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the supply has recently returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The market supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to polyester upstream - downstream device changes and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory increased slightly this week, but it's unlikely to be persistent this month. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price restocking. In the short term, MEG supply - demand remains tight, and the basis has some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand will turn loose in the far - month, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated briefly following the cost side yesterday and finally closed slightly lower. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4585 - 4670. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4626, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to polyester device changes and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated weakly. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated narrowly, with traders mainly conducting swap transactions. Near noon, the futures price declined weakly, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, affected by a cracking anomaly in a South China device, the market sentiment was boosted. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer - market price adjusted widely. In the morning, recent shipments were negotiated around 516 - 519 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, the negotiation center回调 to 514 - 515 US dollars/ton. The difference between the inner and outer markets was large, and the buying follow - up was weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4362, and the 01 contract basis is 94, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to port shipment conditions and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Positive Factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, export, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the PTA capacity is 9172, the output is 626, the total supply is 626, the total demand is 624, and the inventory at the end of the period is 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the EG output is 58, the total supply is 234, the total demand is 233, and the supply - demand difference is 2 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and their changes from September 17 to September 18, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.5 to 584.5 US dollars/ton, and the CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) decreased from 4630 to 4590 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory situation of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester filaments, etc. from 2021 to 2025, including factory - inventory available days and port inventory [43][45]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rate situation of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and downstream weaving machines from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the profit situation of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, etc. from 2022 to 2025, including processing fees and production gross margins [62][64][66][68][69].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol shows a weak balance, with insufficient momentum for price rebound. It may maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and if port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, the price may decline to the previous low. If inventory destocking starts, it is expected to drive a periodic price rebound [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rebounded for two consecutive days, reaching 4,297 yuan/ton on September 17, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market rose to 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed by 25 yuan to 83 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 61 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread turned to a premium of 20 yuan [2] - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased slightly by 107 lots to 310,700 lots, and trading volume decreased by 17% to 124,900 lots, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 70.8%, with the operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based plants stable. Coal - based production continued to incur a loss of 402 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester plants was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, remaining flat for many days. Terminal restocking demand was dull [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 485,700 tons (a weekly increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, reaching a recent high [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the main ethylene glycol futures contract price was 4,297 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis was 83 yuan/ton [5] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread was 20 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 41 yuan [5] - **Profits**: Coal - based production profit was - 402 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 70.8%, and the operating rates of various production methods remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China was 486,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang was 180,000 tons. The arrival volume was 101,700 tons, down 67,000 tons from the previous period [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 17, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,980 yuan/ton ex - works. The mainstream market was weak, but coal prices were firm [6] - On September 17, the mainstream market price was weak, while the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable, with a dull trading atmosphere at around 4,480 yuan/ton delivered [6] - On September 17, the crude oil market declined during the day, with unstable cost support. The supply - demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol were expected to weaken, and the market negotiation price declined, with the current East China price at around 4,360 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total industry inventory [7][9][11]