中美贸易谈判超预期，资金面趋紧，债市延续调整 ——利率债周报（2025.5.12-2025.5.18） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 5 月 19 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市震荡调整，长债收益率大幅上行。上周一（5 月 12 日） 中美达成贸易共识，双边关税显著调降，市场避险情绪迅速降 温，债市出现明显调整。周二市场情绪有所修复，但因国债放 量发行，资金面逐步收紧，周三、周四债市再度调整。直到周 五资金面边际改善，债市小幅回暖。整体上看，受中美谈判超 预期以及资金面趋紧影响，上周债市震荡偏空，长债收益率延 续上行。短端利率方面，尽管降准落地，但受央行连续净回笼 及MLF到期影响，上周资金面先松后紧，导致短端利率延续上行 态势，但上行幅度小于长端，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（5 月 19 日当周）债市料将延续震荡格局。从资金面来 看，由于前期资金已充分宽松，央行"双降"后进入政策观察 期，且本周正值税期走款，资金面进一步宽松的概率较低。从 基本面来看，中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，市场对基本面预期有 所修复，但仍需经济数据验证，同时，后续中美贸易战走势仍 存在较 ...

Group 1: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 6 basis points, with a latest price of 105.71 yuan, showing a cumulative increase of 1.14% over the past six months [1] - The trading volume for the Company Bond ETF was 25.34 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 18.18%, indicating active market participation [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 13.936 billion yuan, marking a one-year high, with a total of 132 million shares, also a one-month high [1] - The net inflow of funds into the Company Bond ETF was 263 million yuan, with a total of 524 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days [1] Group 2: National Development Bond ETF Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) was quoted at 106.06 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.02% over the past six months [5] - The trading volume for the National Development Bond ETF was 1.05 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.15% [5] - The scale of the National Development Bond ETF increased by 416 million yuan over the past six months, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [5] - The latest share count for the National Development Bond ETF reached 13.8344 million shares, a one-month high [5] Group 3: Government Bond ETF Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF (511020) was quoted at 117.19 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 3.02% over the past six months [8] - The trading volume for the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF was 1.03 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.02% [8] - The latest scale of the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF reached 1.467 billion yuan [8] Group 4: Market Insights and Economic Indicators - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.2%, indicating a need for improvement in domestic demand [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7%, reflecting weak demand recovery [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent economic stabilization in China, along with improving consumer sentiment and resilient exports, may lead to a shift in monetary policy focus [2]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the bond market has been strong since April, leading to a significant inflow of funds into the wealth management market, with the total scale of wealth management products reaching a historical high of 23.58 trillion yuan by the end of April, an increase of 1.89 trillion yuan from March and 1.16 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Market Growth - The growth in the wealth management market has shown a significant "tiered differentiation," with state-owned banks leading the increase, generally exceeding 10% growth [2] - Six state-owned bank wealth management companies contributed approximately 1.13 trillion yuan to the market in April, accounting for nearly 60% of the total increase among the top 14 institutions [2] - The cumulative increase in wealth management products for several joint-stock banks has also been notable, with Everbright Wealth Management leading with an increase of over 230 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Growth - The bond market has benefited from a "see-saw" effect due to stock market volatility, leading to a recovery in the net value curve of wealth management products [4] - The average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income products reached 3.21% by the end of April, an increase of 1.41 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The "deposit migration effect" has intensified, with many banks lowering deposit rates, making wealth management products more attractive compared to traditional deposits [4] Group 3: Product Performance - Fixed-income and cash management products have directly benefited from the influx of new funds, with cash management product scales increasing by nearly 500 billion yuan in April [5] Group 4: Future Challenges - Despite maintaining high market scales, the wealth management market faces significant challenges in the context of a stable but low-demand market for fixed-income asset yields [6] - Analysts express concerns about the short-term funding sources for wealth management liabilities and potential adjustments in the bond market due to regulatory policies [7]

固定收益/固收周报 短期债市调整压力增加 ——固收周报（2025.05.05-2025.05.09） 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 05 月 02 日- 2025 年 05 月 09 日期间，央行总计开展 8,361.00 亿元逆回购操作，共 16,178.00亿元逆回购到期，全口径下净回笼 7,817.00亿元。银行间资 金价格整体下行，其中，DR001 下行 29.45BP 至 1.4908%；DR007 下 行 25.77BP 至 1.5409%。利率债一级市场发行 5,785.79 亿元，净融资 额为 2,352.91 亿元。国债 10 年期上行 1.08BP 至 1.6351%，1 年期、3 年期 、5 年期、7 年期国债收益率分别下行 4.05BP、1.33BP、 2.06BP、0.86BP 至 1.4194%、1.4633%、1.4957%、1.5720%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 16.44BP 走阔至 21.57BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率整体下行：2025 年 05 月 05 日-2025 年 05 月 11日期间，信用债发行规模增加，其中信用债一级市场新发行 ...

我又生了点病，这次的病挺烦的，吃堵了，肚子胀的跟个皮球似的，下不去也上不来，胀，难受，走路的时候比孕妇都小心，走快了肚子一颠就难受。 问题是我没吃很多，早上吃了一小碗粥后就这样了，我回忆了一下有可能是昨晚吃多了，一碗牛肉面+10个串+1个煎蛋，也还好吧，我也不晓得为什么肚 子就撑了。 基本上一天都在床上挺尸，刷刷抖音，困了就眯一下，干不了别的，因为坐着都觉得肚子不舒服。 话说我今天在抖音上发现个赛道，就是末日避难、僵尸潮、校园杀、生存竞赛主题类的小说，搭配上简易动画，刚看第一眼的时候还挺吸引人，我就多看 了几集。然后发现不对劲，抖音一口气给我推了三四个类似的账号，内容虽然不一样，但是小说风格，动画风格很接近。 我点进去看了一下几个账号的更新速度，生产队的驴都没它们能干，我猜大概率小说是ai写的，连简易动画也是ai生成的，然后系统性的搬运到短视频平 台，这种一个账号可能挣的流量费不多，但你一口气弄5个10个账号，收入应该还不错。就是这钱恐怕挣不了多久，因为它没什么护城河。我今晚这么一 说，你们中可能也有感兴趣去模仿的，这个赛道很快就会拥挤。 我妈刚给我拿了个药，名字挺耳熟的，叫江中健胃消食片，一看这名字我就笑了 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it can be inferred that the banking sector is viewed positively with a performance increase of +1.42% on March 19 [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the banking sector has shown resilience and growth amidst market fluctuations, driven by a rebalancing of market styles and significant capital inflows [5]. - The overall market performance on March 19 indicates mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1% and the Hang Seng Index up by 0.12%, reflecting varied investor sentiment across sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On March 19, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.06%. The STAR Market 50 index fell by 1.18%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 0.28%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.12% [3][4]. - The best-performing sectors included banking (+1.42%), utilities (+1.28%), automotive (+0.67%), home appliances (+0.6%), and non-ferrous metals (+0.26%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-2.47%), electronics (-1.59%), media (-1.51%), computing (-1.43%), and conglomerates (-1.17%) [3][4]. Bond Market Insights - The report discusses the bond market, indicating that the current tightening of liabilities among major banks may stem from a shift in the central bank's stance. The report suggests that the long-term yields may not have fully adjusted yet, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to reach an upper limit of 2.0%-2.1% and the 30-year yield at 2.3%-2.4% [6]. - It emphasizes that the behavior of financial institutions regarding wealth management and funds will be crucial in the upcoming market adjustments, as previous reliance on trust mechanisms is diminishing [6]. Credit Bond Market Analysis - The report notes that the Chinese bond market typically experiences rapid declines followed by prolonged recoveries. It highlights that the speed of recovery corresponds to the speed of adjustment, with lower-grade city investment bonds showing delayed recovery [8]. - The analysis indicates that the recent market downturn was influenced by a combination of factors, including tightening liquidity, policy signals from the central bank, and shifts in market sentiment [8].

Core Viewpoint - Since February 2025, long-term bond yields have shown an overall upward trend, with significant differentiation in trading behaviors among various institutions in the bond market. Funds and state-owned banks have primarily acted as sellers, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies have shown notable buying behavior in the long end of the curve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term despite a potential easing of regulatory pressure on market sentiment [1][2][4]. Recent Market Pressure - The bond market has faced overall pressure since February 2025, with the central bank tightening liquidity support. This has led to a rise in long-term government bond yields, breaking the earlier oscillating pattern. The yield curve has shown a general increase across various maturities, with the 30Y-10Y spread narrowing by approximately 20 basis points [2][3]. Institutional Trading Behavior Changes - There has been a significant divergence in trading patterns among major institutions. Insurance companies and rural commercial banks have displayed a clear tendency to buy on dips, while funds have mainly sold policy bank bonds. State-owned banks have significantly sold off various maturities of government bonds, contrasting with their previous "buy short, sell long" strategy [3][4]. Future Market Adjustment Pressures - The 10-year government bond yield has returned to levels seen before the "moderately loose" monetary policy stance was proposed. The market is now focused on the upper limits of this adjustment, with three key factors to consider: the return of policy rate anchors, the potential for substantial interest rate hikes conflicting with the goal of reducing overall financing costs, and the need to monitor liquidity and risk factors closely [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown significant signs of recovery since March 12, following a period of substantial adjustment and negative sentiment that peaked on March 11 [1][3][5]. Market Performance - The bond market experienced a strong rebound on March 12, with the China Bond Index ending a six-day decline and achieving a bottom rebound [5][6]. - As of March 12, the average increase for medium- to long-term pure bond funds reached 0.08%, while the China Bond Index rebounded by 0.16% [6]. - The bond market had faced considerable adjustments earlier in the year, with the China Bond Index recording a maximum drawdown of 1.83% on March 11, marking the largest drawdown in nearly four years [9][10]. Investor Behavior - Some institutional investors chose to "cut losses" on March 11, unable to tolerate ongoing declines, which resulted in significant redemptions from several funds [2][7]. - A specific institution that invested heavily in a low-risk credit bond fund faced nearly a 1% loss within a quarter, prompting their exit just before the market rebound [7]. Market Outlook - There is a consensus among institutions that the bond market has largely adjusted, with some assets now presenting attractive value for investment [1][14]. - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment has reached a normal range, with short-term and credit bond yields rising by approximately 40-60 basis points, while long-term rates increased by 20-25 basis points [13]. - The future trajectory of the bond market is expected to be influenced by fundamental economic conditions and market liquidity [13][14]. Investment Strategy - Current market conditions may provide a favorable opportunity for investment, with suggestions to adopt a contrarian approach during periods of volatility [16]. - It is recommended to focus on short-term and credit bonds, which are perceived to have higher value after recent adjustments [17].

利率债：雨天 债市天气速递： 债市天气速递 呈现震荡偏弱格局，涨跌互现，整体承压。小伙伴们要碎蛋了。 信用债：雨天 呈现分化态势，受资金面偏紧影响，不同类型和评级的债券表现有所差异。可能要碎蛋了。 点击下方 「 债市晴雨表 」 小程序 查看债市天气详情，盘中实时更新债市天气，及时掌握债市行情！ 温馨提醒： 短期债市或延续震荡，波动大且随机性强，越是这种情况下，投资者更要避免盲目追涨杀跌。 保持灵活仓位，重点关注两会政策表述及PMI数据对市场情绪的引导。 债基持有者不必过度焦虑短期波动，新资金入场可以采用分批策略。 想一站式参与债市投资？最新 债市投资功能【 债市指南针 】 上线APP！ 长按图片识别二维码，或在天天基金APP搜索【 指南针 】，按引导添加至固底栏，即可轻松一览债 市投资实时行情信息！ 想一站式参与债市投资？最新 债市投资功能 上线APP！ 这个功能都有啥： ①【 债市实时行情 】大家最爱看的晴雨表，一览资金面、情绪面、行情走势图 你认为这轮债市调整会持续多久？欢迎评论区留言聊聊你的看法~ 免责声明 收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成投资建议。转引的相关 观点均来自相关 ...