Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upside potential due to unchanged supply - demand patterns, shortened downstream order cycles, and weakening prices of some PP spot products [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity comes on - stream and the peak season for agricultural films ends [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On December 25, the restart of maintenance units such as a single line of Liaoyang Petrochemical led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82.5%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring rose to around 29% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - With an oversupply of crude oil and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently [1] - The downstream has entered the end of the peak season, orders in plastic weaving and other sectors continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with reduced positions, closing at 6266 yuan/ton, up 0.79%, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 3751 lots to 536,001 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions remained stable, with drawstring prices ranging from 5920 to 6280 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 25, the restart of maintenance units such as a single line of Liaoyang Petrochemical led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82.5%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring rose to around 29% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 80,000 tons to 610,000 tons week - on - week, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at $740 per ton week - on - week [6]

白银正以全然不同的姿态迈入2026年。在2025年末突破55美元/盎司并牢牢守住50-54美元区域形成坚实 基底后，这种金属已从"被遗忘的资产"蜕变为大宗商品领域最具爆发力的传奇之一，周三(12月24日)一 度刷新历史高点至72.68美元/盎司，年内近150%的涨幅说明了一切。 当中国的储备下降时，全球其他地区会立即感受到影响，而这一情况正发生在连续第五年结构性赤字的 背景下，地上库存正在减少，而矿山供应目前反应不够迅速。大部分新增产量预计要到2027-2028年之 后才会出现。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 今日周四(12月25日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于15.933一线上方，今日开盘于15.937，截至发稿，纸 白银暂报15.935元/克，上涨0.03%，最高触及15.937元/克，最低下探15.935元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘 内短线偏向震荡走势。 白银不仅跑赢了黄金，市场终于承认供需失衡是结构性的，且正在不断加剧。 作为全球最重要的实物枢纽，中国已明显感受到供应紧张。在创纪录的出口之后，其交易所库存骤降至 十年来最低水平。 【要闻速递】 日图来看，由于圣诞节假期芝商所(CME)休市，纸白银早盘价格横盘整理 ...

【导读】美股震荡，黄金、白银、铜都创下了历史新高 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场表现。 美股震荡上涨 12月23日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨。 黄金、白银、铜，盘中创历史新高 23日晚间，市场另一个关注点，就是大宗商品的表现。 其中，黄金和白银双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银一度上涨2.4%，首次突破每盎司70美元；黄金则逼近每盎司4,500美元，在创 下逾一个月来最大单日涨幅后继续走高。 。 伦敦银 (现货白银) CFD 、 く 期 XAG 69.61 +0.59 +0.85% t a same 12-23 23:52:00 今开 持仓量 69.08 最高 70.65 振幅 昨结算 2.65% 最低 68.82 69.02 美元指数 98.1195 -0.1846% > 周K 月K 分时 五日 日K 更多, (0) - 均价:69.54 最新:69.61 +0.59 +0.85% 70.65 2.36% 0.00% 67.39 -2.36% 18:30 06:00 07:00 ------------------ 今年以来金价已上涨超过三分之二，有望创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现。 美股走势反复，美国商务部 ...

【期现行情】 期货方面： 【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年12月23日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少1.07个百分点至78.36%， PVC开工率继续减少，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降3.5个百分点， 下游制品订单不佳。出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单小幅增加，但印度市场价格偏低，印度 需求有限，关注台湾台塑1月份报价。上周社会库存略有减少，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、 销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍 处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的 嘉兴嘉化新近投产。反内卷情绪叠加"十五五"将谋划一批带动全局的重大工程、重大项目、重大 载体，焦煤等大宗商品反弹提振市场情绪，氯碱综合毛利下降，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目 前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位，印度市场价格偏低，印度需求有限。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to find short-term support around the 25,000 point level, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 0.25% in December, with market expectations for two additional rate cuts in 2026 after the leadership change [2][5] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts and increased monetary policy space in mainland China, the economic situation remains stable, and there is limited incentive for further policy easing in the short term [2] - The focus is on the Central Economic Work Conference's deployment, with the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizing expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [3] Company News - Sanhua Intelligent Control (2050) forecasts a net profit growth of 25%-50% for the year, driven by its leadership in the refrigeration and air conditioning parts industry and strong demand in the automotive parts sector [4][12] - Cathay Pacific (0293) reported a 26% increase in passenger numbers in November, with expectations for annual performance to surpass last year [4][12] - Vanke (2202) has extended the grace period for its domestic bond, with a principal amount of 2 billion yuan, although the proposal for a one-year extension was not approved [4][12] - Geely Automobile (0175) has completed the privatization of Zeekr, which will now operate as a wholly-owned subsidiary [4][12] Industry Insights - The telecommunications industry in mainland China reported a cumulative revenue of 1.61 trillion yuan in the first eleven months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [10] - The Hong Kong stock market led global IPO financing in 2025, with a total of 274.6 billion HKD raised, marking a significant increase from the previous year [10] - The insurance regulatory authority in Hong Kong is proposing new regulations to guide insurance capital towards cryptocurrencies and infrastructure assets [10][11] - The automotive sector saw the top ten SUV manufacturers sell 9.583 million units from January to November, accounting for 65.9% of total SUV sales [10]

家人们，今天行情太炸裂了！油价单日暴涨2.4%，伦铜今年已狂飙36%逼近1.2万美元，黄金更是直接 冲破4400美元历史新高！这"三巨头"的集体狂欢，是陷阱还是时代级的机会？ · 黄金：可分批配置，作为资产组合的"压舱石"，但忌追高。 · 原油：谨慎看待，除非供需格局发生根本扭转。 【关键数据】 · +2.4%：油价单日涨幅 三大品种，逻辑天差地别！ 1. 油价（地缘脉冲行情）：美国拦截委内瑞拉油轮，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯油轮，地缘冲突直接把供应风险 拉满！但帮主提醒：今年油价整体已跌五分之一，全球供应过剩才是核心底色，这波上涨的持续性存 疑。 2. 铜价（长期产业趋势）：这可能是最有看点的！贸易动荡导致铜涌向美国，叠加全球矿山停产和AI 数据中心、新能源带来的爆炸性需求，创造了2009年以来最大涨幅。这更像是长期产业趋势，而非短期 炒作。 3. 黄金（避险+货币双驱动）：在美联储降息预期和全球地缘紧张的双重引擎下，避险资金汹涌而入， 现货金单日大涨2.4%，势头强劲。 帮主20年中长线视角的核心策略： · 铜：逢回调布局，AI与绿色革命的需求是长期逻辑。 A. 铜（代表未来AI与绿色需求） B. 黄金（代表避险与 ...

12月22日，今天A股三大指数均收复或者说突破60日线，若外围环境配合，比如美股再创历史新高，则上证指数 突破态势已经形成，那么大概率将有一轮跨年行情。 现阶段，AI主要应用集中在AIGC，也就是AI创作内容，创作视频，这些很厉害，但没有改变实质性的推动生产 力，而无人驾驶、具身智能、脑机接口、低空经济，是AI的生产力领域应用的一个方面，如果一个能成功普及， 即使是这次大盘突破，本轮反弹目标也并不高，应该能够突破前高4034，后面高度要看流动性和市场的成交量。 而本轮跨年行情的核心板块，核心是消费和AI应用类股票。 临近年底，我们也要看一看2026年的股市。其实26年的股市很好懂，你只需要看两件事： 一件事是货币宽松。美元进入宽松周期，但美联储鲍威尔等还在负隅顽抗，但到明年，特朗普对美联储的干预力 度会空前增强，因为鲍威尔要退休了，为了讨好特朗普当上美联储主席，相信美联储的理事会成员会主动表态支 持宽松。 注意，我们并不是用降息来判断，而是宽松还是紧缩的判断，这背后其实是因为宽松除了降息，还有美联储购买 美债。 今年12月，美联储降息之余购买了400亿美元美债，对此，一部分人认为这个购买类似于逆回购，是常态化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a volatile rebound. The port fundamentals have improved due to the continuous reduction of port inventories caused by slow vessel unloading. The macro situation may also drive methanol to follow a volatile rebound, but the upside is limited due to fundamental valuation constraints [2][4]. - The MTO fundamentals are currently weak, with production profits being continuously compressed. The range of 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. The cost side provides support for the lower valuation of methanol, with the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton [4]. - For trading strategies, in the short - term, methanol is expected to have a volatile rebound, with the 05 contract having an upper resistance at 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton and a lower support at 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 calendar spread has peaked and is expected to enter a reverse spread pattern in the medium - term. The spread between MA and PP is in a volatile pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply** - From December 12 - 18, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,055,975 tons, an increase of 18,370 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.90%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0667 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 91.00%, higher than the current period [4]. - Regarding olefins, the Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continued to be shut down, leading to a decline in the weekly average operating rate of the MTO industry [4]. - For traditional downstream industries, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 7.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 21.05%. The overall capacity utilization rate of acetic acid increased despite frequent breakdowns, and the overall capacity utilization rate of methane chloride increased. The formaldehyde operating rate was 42.58%, with the overall capacity utilization rate decreasing compared to the previous week [4]. - **Demand** - The operating rate of some downstream industries has changed. For example, the MTO industry's operating rate decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of some traditional downstream industries such as dimethyl ether and formaldehyde also decreased, while that of acetic acid and methane chloride increased [4]. - **Inventory** - As of November 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 10.86%. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.25% [4]. - As of December 17, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.26%. The port inventory decreased slightly, with the East China mainstream social warehouse having good提货, and the Zhejiang olefin plant's shutdown for maintenance affecting consumption. The South China port inventory increased slightly [4]. Price and Spread - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts of methanol, as well as domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price spreads from 2020 to 2025 [7][11][16] Supply - **Production and Operating Rate** - Charts show the production and capacity utilization rates of methanol in China and the northwest region, as well as the production of methanol by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal co - alcohol, natural gas) from 2018 to 2025 [24][26]. - The capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (northwest, southwest, east, central) are presented [29]. - **Import - Related** - Charts display the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 [33][34][35]. - **Cost and Profit** - The production costs of methanol by different processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, coal - based in Shandong, natural gas - based in Chongqing) are shown from 2020 to 2025 [38][39][40]. - The production profits of methanol by different processes (coal - based in Shandong, natural gas - based in Chongqing, coke oven gas - based in Hebei) are also presented [43][44][45]. Demand - **Downstream Operating Rate** - The capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE are shown from 2020 to 2025 [48][49][50]. - **Downstream Profit** - The production profits of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins in the East China region and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE in Shandong, and acetic acid in Jiangsu are presented from 2020 to 2025 [55][59][61]. - **Procurement Volume** - The procurement volumes of methanol by methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in different regions (China, East China, northwest, central) and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions (China, north, east, southwest) are shown from 2020 to 2025 [63][68][70]. - **Raw Material Inventory** - The raw material inventories of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in different regions (China, northwest, Shandong, south) are presented from 2020 to 2025 [73][74][75]. Inventory - **Factory Inventory** - Charts show the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China, the East China region, the northwest region, and Inner Mongolia from 2018 to 2025 [78][79][80]. - **Port Inventory** - The weekly port inventories of methanol in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are presented from 2018 to 2025 [84][85][86].

SHMET 网讯：高盛集团周四在一份报告中表示，预计到2026年12月，金价将上涨14%至每盎司 4900美元（基于其基本预测情景）。报告同时指出，若私人投资者多元化配置资产的需求进一步扩大， 金价可能面临上行风险。 在这份阐述其对2026年大宗商品看法的报告中，高盛表示，预计各国央行持续的结构性高需求，以 及美联储降息带来的周期性支撑，将共同推动金价上涨。该行继续建议做多黄金。 该行还预测，铜价将在2026年趋于盘整，在其基本预测情景下（即关税不确定性将持续，直至可能 在2026年年中宣布美国将于2027年对精炼铜加征关税），铜的年均价格预计为每吨11400美元。 对于天然气，高盛表示，预测2026年荷兰TTF天然气价格为每兆瓦时29欧元，2027年为20欧元，以 激励额外的天然气需求；同时预计2026年和2027年美国天然气价格将分别达到每百万英热单位4.60美元 和3.80美元，以刺激美国天然气产量增长。 高盛表示，预计美国电力备用容量将进一步下降，因为电力需求的快速增长和燃煤发电的退役速度 超过了可再生能源和天然气发电能力的建设速度。 "因此，美国电力市场面临价格大幅上涨甚至停电的风险。这种风险在数据 ...

近期知名经济学家洪灝在与瑞士宝盛的年度收官对话中，展望了2026年的美股、A股市场，并重点剖析 了AI、大宗商品及人民币等核心议题。谈到美国AI泡沫时，他表示，现在说(美国AI)泡沫要破，可能还 为时过早。但必须承认估值已经很贵了。那么历史上达到如此估值的高度次数屈指可数。以及一般来 说，这个估值水平，美股未来7到10年的平均回报率往往只有个位数。这是现阶段投资高成长高估值板 块时需要注意的风险。 谈及大宗商品时，洪灝称，最近大宗商品整体很强，除了原油受地缘政治影响弱一些。贵金属、工业金 属、稀土表现都很亮眼。部分原因是AI发展需要巨额资源投入。这和以前的科技不一样——互联网时 代更多是人的投入，AI时代却是资本和资源的投入。这也解释了为什么资本市场头部效应这么明显， 有资本的人越来越富，社会呈现K型分化。 互联网曾经是普惠的，但AI可能走向资源寡头。这个趋势对社会结构的影响值得关注。正因为AI是资 本密集型的，它对大宗商品的需求会越来越高。 他提到，另外从经济周期看，我们现在处于中晚期，这个阶段大宗商品通常表现较好。历史规律是贵金 属先涨，然后轮到其他金属。这次也看到了类似的轮动。如果AI故事继续，经济周期 ...