杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,724 | 1,740 | -16 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,720 | 1,721 | - 1 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 538,829 | 551,401 | -12572 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 233,314 | 255,236 | -21922 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 500 | 0 | 500 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,853,143 | 1,898,223 | -45080 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 7 6 | 2 0 | 5 6 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -64 | -90 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on international oil and gold prices, highlighting the potential for price fluctuations due to supply concerns and market sentiment [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13, international oil prices have risen, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by over 9% [2]. - Concerns regarding oil supply stem from Iran's current production of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day and an export volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day, predominantly to China [2]. - The potential for conflict escalation raises fears of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported daily, accounting for 75% of oil transport in the region [2]. - Despite these concerns, the global oil supply situation remains manageable, with OPEC in a production increase cycle and an estimated 4-5 million barrels per day of idle capacity available [2][3]. - Long-term projections suggest that international oil prices may stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by inflationary pressures in the U.S. and geopolitical dynamics [3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices have surged due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East, currently hovering around $3,400 per ounce [5]. - Over the past month, gold prices have rebounded from below $3,200 per ounce, with a potential challenge to the previous high of $3,500 per ounce [5]. - The increase in gold prices is attributed to rising risk aversion amid geopolitical instability and a declining U.S. dollar index, which enhances the valuation of dollar-denominated gold [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices are influenced by the global monetary system, central bank policies, and inflation expectations, with potential for prices to reach $3,700-$3,800 per ounce if they surpass the $3,500 mark [6].

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a depreciation of the US dollar is increasing due to misalignment in monetary policy and obstacles in the dollar's external circulation, suggesting a focus on foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equity investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Dollar Depreciation - Since 1970, there have been seven significant periods of dollar depreciation, each impacting asset performance differently, with commodities generally benefiting the most [2]. - Key periods include: 1. 1971-1973: Breakdown of the Bretton Woods system led to a dollar credit crisis, benefiting commodities and Asian equities [2]. 2. 1976-1980: Missteps by the Federal Reserve resulted in high inflation, with commodities performing best amid concerns of stagflation [2]. 3. 1985-1987: The Plaza Accord initiated a deliberate dollar depreciation, with industrial metals outperforming precious metals and Japanese equities leading globally [2]. 4. 1989-1992: US economic recession and German reunification led to a weaker dollar, with subdued performance in commodities and equities [2]. 5. 1994-1995: Unexpected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve suppressed economic expectations, benefiting commodities as non-US economies rebounded [2]. 6. 2002-2008: The US faced "twin deficits," leading to a commodities bull market and strong performance in non-US equities [2]. 7. 2017-2018: Recovery in the Eurozone and emerging markets resulted in positive returns for both commodities and equities [2]. Group 2: Drivers of Dollar Weakness - Factors contributing to dollar weakness include relative economic advantages, misaligned monetary policies, and credit risks associated with the dollar [3]. - Economic advantages typically arise during global economic recoveries, prompting capital to flow from the US to faster-growing regions [3]. - Misalignment in monetary policy has historically led to dollar weakness, though such periods are rare [3]. - Credit risks emerge when global investors grow concerned about the dollar's stability, leading to a sell-off and subsequent depreciation [3]. Group 3: Asset Performance During Dollar Weakness - Commodities consistently outperform during periods of dollar weakness, driven by demand for physical assets and reduced investment costs for developed countries [4]. - Non-US equity markets tend to benefit more than US equities, with emerging markets showing greater elasticity in capital inflows [4]. - Historical performance rankings during dollar depreciation periods show that the Hang Seng Index outperformed, followed by the Nikkei 225 and European markets [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The likelihood of a trend towards dollar depreciation is increasing, with a focus on foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equity investments [5]. - Key investment areas include: 1. Foreign exchange: The Eurozone, Japan, and Canada are expected to see their currencies strengthen due to high net positions in US assets [5]. 2. Commodities: Continued value in gold and potential for other physical assets to gain traction [5]. 3. Equities: Focus on economies with leverage capacity, such as Germany and India, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares due to improved liquidity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in futures pricing is the basis, which is currently significantly misaligned, indicating that futures are undervalued compared to spot prices [6][12][46]. Group 1: Basis Analysis - The basis is derived from the relationship between futures and spot prices, influenced by supply and demand dynamics reflected in inventory levels [7][8]. - Different commodities have their own basis, and the Wenhua Commodity Index should also have a corresponding basis rate [9][10]. - In June, the Wenhua Index's basis rate reached nearly 4%, suggesting a substantial misalignment where futures are undervalued relative to spot prices [12]. Group 2: Inventory and Profit Dynamics - The direction of inventory changes will determine whether commodities will continue to deplete or not, which is linked to profit margins and operating rates [15]. - The non-ferrous sector shows minor contradictions, while the black and chemical sectors exhibit significant basis discrepancies, with futures prices lagging behind spot prices [17][20][23]. Group 3: Future Basis Reversion - The reversion of the 2509 contract basis will depend on the ongoing contradictions in overseas demand and upstream-downstream profit distribution [26][28]. - If upstream prices stabilize, it could lead to an overall increase in industrial products, causing futures prices to rise faster than spot prices, thus narrowing the basis [42][44]. Group 4: Research and Strategy Development - Understanding the basis is crucial for researchers and traders to differentiate between spot and futures logic, enabling effective arbitrage strategies [49][50]. - The basis serves as a fundamental principle for futures, and its analysis can lead to better insights into market dynamics and trading strategies [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, steel and ore prices moved sideways with minor fluctuations. The traditional consumption off - season has arrived, leading to a decline in the apparent demand for steel and an increase in iron ore port inventories. The pessimistic expectation for future demand has been the core trading logic this year. However, external factors such as the Middle - East situation driving up crude oil prices and the expectation of new domestic real - estate policies are starting to impact this logic. Currently, these factors have not had a substantial impact on reality, and attention should be paid to changes in trading volume. It is recommended to focus on intraday short - term trading for now and conduct trend trading after policy confirmation [67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **Price and Profit**: PB powder price dropped from 729 yuan/wet ton to 720 yuan/wet ton, and its spot landing profit increased from - 5.29 yuan/wet ton to - 2.55 yuan/wet ton. Barite coarse powder price decreased from 702 yuan/wet ton to 693 yuan/wet ton, and barite mixed powder spot landing profit decreased from 6.42 yuan/wet ton to 5.87 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Shipping Volume**: Australia's shipping volume to China increased by 336.5 tons to 1815.8 tons, while Brazil's shipping volume to China decreased by 188 tons to 745.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory and Transportation**: Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 102.83 tons to 14503.14 tons, the arrival volume increased by 76.5 tons to 2673.9 tons, and the port clearance volume decreased by 13.81 tons to 315.25 tons. Iron ore port trading volume increased by 11.1 tons to 85.4 tons [6]. - **Steel Production**: The average daily molten iron output decreased slightly from 241.8 tons to 241.61 tons, and the steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 58.87% to 58.44% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **Price**: Shanghai rebar price dropped from 3120 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton [35]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased from 83.56% to 83.41%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased from 76.69% to 74.01% [35]. - **Profit**: Rebar blast furnace profit increased from 99 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from 33 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, and rebar electric furnace profit increased slightly from - 125 yuan/ton to - 124 yuan/ton [35]. - **Production and Inventory**: Rebar weekly production decreased by 10.89 tons to 207.57 tons, and its social inventory decreased by 10.43 tons to 375.19 tons, and enterprise inventory decreased by 1.97 tons to 182.89 tons. Hot - rolled coil weekly production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.65 tons, its social inventory increased by 4.59 tons to 268.88 tons, and enterprise inventory increased slightly by 0.18 tons to 76.53 tons [35][37]. - **Apparent Consumption and Trading Volume**: Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased by 9.06 tons to 219.97 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption decreased by 1.04 tons to 319.88 tons, and building material trading volume decreased by 2483 tons to 101832 tons [37]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rate**: The report presents historical data on blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates [44]. - **Production**: It shows historical data on the weekly actual production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises [49][51]. - **Profit**: Historical data on the average profit of electric - furnace building steel in China is provided [56]. - **Inventory**: Historical data on the social and enterprise inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in China are presented [57][59]. - **Trading Volume**: Historical data on the trading volume of building steel by mainstream traders in China is shown [60]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Historical data on the weekly apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil are provided, as well as data on steel exports in China [61][62]. - **Real - Estate and Manufacturing**: Data on real - estate investment, sales, new construction, and construction area growth rates in China, as well as the manufacturing PMI, are presented [63][65].

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions have revised down their global economic growth forecasts for 2025, which impacts demand for commodities, particularly industrial products like oil and copper [3][10][12]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [10]. - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also adjusted its forecasts, predicting a growth rate of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [11]. - The World Bank has reduced its 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that nearly 70% of economies have seen their growth rates downgraded [12][13]. Group 2: Commodity Demand Analysis - The divergence in consumption growth rates for oil and copper is significant, with oil showing a consumption divergence of 0.8% compared to copper's 1.3% [24]. - Current forecasts suggest that copper consumption growth could range from 0.6% to 2.5% depending on the institution, indicating a substantial disagreement among forecasts [19][22]. - For oil, the consumption growth forecasts range from -0.6% to 1.2%, reflecting a similar level of uncertainty [23][27]. Group 3: Price and Trading Dynamics - Copper prices remain relatively high, while oil prices are at a low point, indicating a significant disparity in market conditions [4][26]. - The copper-to-oil ratio is currently around 146, which is historically high, suggesting that copper may be overvalued compared to oil [29]. - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, with traders awaiting a clearer direction for both commodities [28]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of extreme copper-to-oil ratios have been linked to supply disruptions and significant demand changes, which are not currently present [39][40]. - The analysis suggests that the extreme copper-to-oil ratio may correct towards the 2020 average of 120, as current market conditions do not support sustained high ratios [43].

Group 1 - In May, the national futures market saw a decline in both trading volume and trading value, with a total trading volume of 679 million contracts and a trading value of 54.73 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [1] - From January to May, the cumulative trading volume reached 3.337 billion contracts and the cumulative trading value was 286.93 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 21.33% [1] - The trading performance varied across exchanges, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting a trading volume of 197 million contracts and a trading value of 21.13 trillion yuan in May, reflecting a volume decrease of 1.59% but a value increase of 2.18% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The top three futures by trading value included gold, silver, and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange featured caustic soda, rapeseed oil, and PTA futures [2] - The trading volume leaders were rebar, alumina, and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leading in glass, PTA, and soda ash futures [2] - The decline in trading activity in May was attributed to reduced volatility in major commodities and weaker demand, particularly in energy, chemicals, and construction materials [2][3] Group 3 - May is traditionally a low season for industrial and some agricultural products, leading to a decrease in hedging activities as enterprises adopted low inventory strategies [3] - Despite the drop in trading scale, the total open interest in the futures market increased by 16.62% at the end of May, with all exchanges except the China Financial Futures Exchange reporting growth [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's total open interest reached 11.26 million contracts, up 14.99% from the previous month [3] Group 4 - Major commodity prices are currently at relatively low levels, encouraging enterprises to engage more in futures hedging and related activities, which has led to an increase in open interest [4] - Improved market sentiment due to the release of macroeconomic policies and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. has attracted more capital into the futures market [4] - The expectation of a rebound in commodity prices and a stable domestic stock market is likely to drive an increase in trading volume in June [4][5]

Summary of Conference Call Minutes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the global market impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy Core Points and Arguments - The recent tariff reduction from 145% to 10% exceeded expectations, alleviating short-term market concerns, but medium to long-term risks related to trade restrictions need monitoring, particularly around key dates in July and August [1][2] - The U.S. effective tax rate has decreased to 16-17%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2] - The performance of U.S. stocks, particularly in the tech sector, has rebounded quickly, suggesting that previous recession fears may have been overstated [4] - The current market is characterized by limited upward momentum and constrained downside potential, indicating a state of indecision [2] - The liquidity shock is viewed as an occasional event that presents buying opportunities, with central bank interventions typically proving effective [4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The recommendation to focus on sectors with strong end-demand and technology innovation, while also capitalizing on short-term trading opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The expectation that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will decline to 3.5-4% by year-end, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering rates 1-2 times in Q4 [4] - The suggestion to wait for U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 4.8-5% before making long positions, as the current yield of 4.5% is deemed unattractive [5][8] - The impact of tariff adjustments on China's market is projected to reduce GDP influence from 3% to 1-1.5%, with Hong Kong's earnings being less affected than A-shares [7][9] - Recommendations for gold investment strategies include dollar-cost averaging or grid trading, given the high levels of market congestion [6][9]

豆粕生猪：进口成本上升 豆粕小幅反弹 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金口期货 JIDGHI FILTURES | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 東位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2992 | 2998 | -6.00 | -0.20% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2716 | 2719 | -3.00 | -0.11% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2939 | 2934 | 5.00 | 0.17% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2336 | 2333 | 3.00 | 0.13% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 5月 ...

Group 1: Hot News - China's latest LPR has been released, with the 1-year LPR dropping to 3% and the 5-year and above LPR dropping to 3.5%, both down 10 basis points, the first cut since October last year. State-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have also cut RMB deposit rates, with the 1-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time [3] - In April, the central general public budget revenue increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the national tax revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, both achieving positive monthly growth for the first time this year. From January to April, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, completing 31.5% of the budget, with the fastest expenditure progress since 2020 [3] - China's gold imports in April reached 127.5 metric tons, a new high in 11 months, a 73% increase from the previous month. Platinum imports also reached a one-year high, with 11.5 tons imported in April [3] - Summer grain procurement is ready across the country, and the peak procurement season is about to begin. It is expected that the procurement volume of new-season summer grain this year will reach about 200 billion catties [4] - As of May 19, the average transaction price of 43% protein soybean meal at major domestic oil mills dropped to 2,970 yuan per ton, a decrease of nearly 900 yuan per ton from the high in late April, reaching the lowest level since mid-January. The customs clearance of imported soybeans in China has accelerated, and the supply will continue to increase [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, plastic, lithium carbonate, soybean meal, PVC [5] - Night trading performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 2.71%, precious metals rose 29.95%, oilseeds and oils rose 12.03%, soft commodities rose 2.51%, non-ferrous metals rose 19.03%, coal, coke, and steel ore rose 13.44%, energy rose 2.67%, chemicals rose 13.28%, grains rose 1.65%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.72% [5] Group 3: Sector Positions - The figure shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% daily, 3.09% monthly, and 0.86% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.49% daily, 7.06% monthly, and 18.05% annually [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily, -0.15% monthly, and -0.08% annually [7] - Commodities: The CRB Commodity Index rose 0.67% daily, 3.26% monthly, and 0.49% annually; London spot gold rose 1.86% daily, 0.03% monthly, and 25.35% annually [7] - Others: The US Dollar Index fell -0.35% daily, 0.38% monthly, and -7.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, -26.56% monthly, and 4.55% annually [7]