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新能源及有色金属日报:交投清淡,价格维持震荡走势-20250910
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 07:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory drops and rising material costs. The demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,490 yuan/ton, closed at 120,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,281 (+7,501) lots, and the open interest was 80,837 (3,364) lots [1]. - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract was affected by the decline in LME nickel prices at night and the lower - than - expected domestic August CPI data during the day. Although there were some bargain - hunting purchases in the afternoon, the rebound was limited due to high inventory and capacity release expectations [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes are firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. A major steel mill in South China has a new tender price of 955 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold). In Indonesia, the supply remains loose, and the September (first phase) premium is - 24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price is 123,200 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The spot trading is generally average, and the premiums of refined nickel brands are slightly adjusted [2]. - **Strategy** - For nickel, the short - term trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,930 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 109,512 (+16,944) lots, and the open interest was 123,179 (-4,171) lots [3]. - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract was weak at night and showed a volatile trend. During the day, it was driven by the strong trend of the black series and slightly rose to 12,980 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation until the close [3]. - In the spot market, affected by the futures market and rising raw material costs, the spot quotes increased. The supply of hot - rolled products is tight, and the inquiry and transaction situation has slightly improved. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,200 (+50) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium is 255 - 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron is 950.5 yuan/nickel point, a 5.00 - yuan/nickel point change from the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].
高端商场专家交流
2025-09-09 14:53
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the high-end retail market, specifically focusing on the SKP series of shopping malls and the jewelry industry. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: In August 2025, SKP series malls are expected to see a sales growth rate between 100% and 200%, with a target sales figure of 360 million yuan to achieve the 200% growth goal [1][6]. - **Jewelry Sales Trends**: The daily sales of gold jewelry increased from 8 million yuan to 15 million yuan after price hikes, with weekend sales reaching up to 20 million yuan [1][5]. - **Sales Forecast for September**: Sales in September 2025 are expected to be stable but may see a year-on-year decline due to a high base from the previous year (47.7 million yuan) [1][7]. - **Monthly Sales Distribution**: Historically, sales in February, April, August, and November have exceeded 100 million yuan, with November typically being the highest sales month due to seasonal demand [1][11]. - **Annual Sales Target**: The overall sales target for 2025 is set at 2.5 billion yuan, with 1.4 billion yuan already achieved by the end of July [1][12]. Additional Important Content - **Impact of Events on Sales**: The scheduling of promotional events was affected by external factors, such as military parades, which led to adjustments in the timing of key sales events [2][3]. - **Promotional Strategies**: The mall employs various promotional strategies, including significant discounts and loyalty programs, to stimulate consumer interest [1][14]. - **Market Challenges**: The jewelry industry is facing challenges, with many brands experiencing sales declines due to a tough economic environment [1][4][24]. - **Brand Performance Variability**: Different jewelry brands are experiencing varying levels of success, with some like Chow Tai Fook seeing significant declines, while others like Chow Sang Sang perform relatively better [1][24]. - **Consumer Behavior Changes**: There is a noted shift in consumer preferences, with a higher overlap of luxury goods consumption among existing customers, now exceeding 70% [1][18]. - **Future Outlook**: The jewelry industry is expected to face continued challenges in the coming months, with brands likely to increase promotional efforts to attract consumers during the holiday shopping season [1][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the performance and strategies of the high-end retail and jewelry sectors.
沪铜:9月减产5.25万吨,短期偏强震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-07 07:10
Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelting plants, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, the import volume of refined copper has declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons per month, raising net import pressure for China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has risen to 85%, which, along with a weaker dollar, has increased the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low holding of copper futures below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The macroeconomic expectations of interest rate cuts and tightening supply are supporting copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas are limiting price increases, leading to a short-term expectation of strong fluctuations in copper prices [1]
有色金属周度报告-20250905
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 11:21
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Metal Price Movements - Copper: The futures price of CU2510 rose from 79,410 to 80,140, a weekly increase of 0.92%. The spot price of 1 copper in Shanghai increased from 79,350 to 79,970, a rise of 0.78% [2]. - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2510 dropped from 20,740 to 20,695, a weekly decrease of 0.22%. The spot price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai decreased from 20,720 to 20,650, a decline of 0.34% [2]. - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2510 rose slightly from 22,140 to 22,155, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai increased from 22,030 to 22,040, a rise of 0.05% [2]. - Lead: The futures price of PB2510 rose from 16,880 to 16,900, a weekly increase of 0.12%. The spot price of 1 lead ingot remained unchanged at 16,725 [2]. - Nickel: The futures price of NI2510 dropped from 121,700 to 121,310, a weekly decrease of 0.32%. The spot price of 1 electrolytic nickel decreased from 122,400 to 121,700, a decline of 0.57% [2]. - Alumina: The futures price of AO2601 dropped from 3036 to 3006, a weekly decrease of 0.99%. The spot price of alumina in Foshan decreased from 3240 to 3210, a decline of 0.93% [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of SI2511 rose from 8390 to 8820, a weekly increase of 5.13%. The spot price of 553 silicon decreased from 9400 to 9300, a decline of 1.06% [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of LC2511 dropped from 77,180 to 74,260, a weekly decrease of 3.78%. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) decreased from 83,700 to 75,400, a decline of 9.92% [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of PS2511 rose from 49,555 to 56,735, a weekly increase of 14.49%. The spot price of N - type polysilicon material increased from 49,000 to 51,600, a rise of 5.31% [2]. Group 3: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of September 5, SHFE copper inventory was 81,900 tons, a 2.76% increase from last week. LME copper inventory was 158,300 tons, a 0.19% increase. As of September 4, COMEX copper inventory was 302,700 tons, a 9.99% increase [12][13]. - Zinc: As of September 5, LME zinc inventory was 54,100 tons, a 4.25% decrease from last week. SHFE zinc inventory was 40,800 tons, a 7.37% increase [22]. - Aluminum: As of September 5, LME aluminum inventory was 484,700 tons, an increase of 3625 tons from last week. SHFE aluminum inventory was 124,100 tons, a decrease of 1518 tons. As of September 4, COMEX aluminum inventory was 9511 metric tons, a decrease of 25 metric tons [36][37]. - Alumina: As of September 5, SHFE alumina inventory was 112,300 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from last week [29]. Group 4: Processing Fees and Index Changes - Copper Concentrate: As of September 4, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 40.60 dollars/ton, rising to 0.46 dollars/ton weekly, with a continued tight supply expectation at the mine end [16]. - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of September 5, the CIF China index dropped to 871 dollars/ton, a decrease of 23 dollars from August 29 [18]. - Zinc Concentrate: As of September 5, the TC of zinc concentrate at major ports was 90 dollars/ton, a significant increase of 15 dollars from last week [23]. Group 5: Supply - Side Analysis - Bauxite: Supply disturbances have暂缓, but there is still room for fermentation. High inventory and demand growth, along with decreased shipments from Guinea, are in a game. The price of imported bauxite is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term [24][26]. - Alumina: Supply - side开工 decreased slightly, and inventory continued to increase. The market is in an overall oversupply situation [27][29]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Supply - side开工 maintained a high level. Due to high profits, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have a strong willingness to start, with an annual 2025开工 rate above 95%. However, the available primary aluminum in the market is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level [30][34]. Group 6: Demand - Side Analysis - Automobile: In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July, production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 39.2% and 38.5% [41]. - Real Estate: From January to July, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The new residential construction area was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. The residential completion area was 180.67 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [43]. - Power Generation: As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. The installed wind power capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to July, the new installed photovoltaic capacity was 223.25GW, and in July it was 11.64GW, a month - on - month decrease of 18.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.7% [45]. Group 7: Strategy Recommendations Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina will run weakly and volatilely. For SHFE aluminum, it is advisable to buy on dips, focusing on the fulfillment of the peak - season demand expectation [46][47]. - Medium - to - long - term: Entering the downstream consumption peak season, pay attention to downstream order transactions. If consumption recovers, SHFE aluminum has upward momentum [48]. Polysilicon - Short - term: Frequent news disturbances lead to wide - range price fluctuations. Be vigilant about market sentiment changes, and do not over - position [49][50]. - Medium - to - long - term: The actual downstream demand improvement is limited, and the industry inventory remains high [51].
中信证券农林牧渔中报总结:畜禽周期震荡 布局龙头和细分成长赛道
智通财经网· 2025-09-05 01:13
Group 1: Swine Industry - In H1 2025, the swine industry experienced profitability, with a focus on capacity reduction in H2 [2] - The average price of pork in Q2 2025 was 14.55 yuan/kg, down 3.1% quarter-on-quarter and 11.2% year-on-year [2] - Major companies like DeKang Agriculture, Lihua Co., Shennong Group, and Wens Foodstuff reported net profits exceeding 200 yuan per head in H1 2025 [2] - The supply pressure in H2 remains, but initial results from weight reduction efforts and seasonal consumption may limit further price declines [2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - In H1 2025, the poultry industry faced low prices due to weak consumption and increased supply [3] - White feather chicken prices rebounded slightly in Q2 but still faced losses, while yellow chicken prices continued to decline [3] - The poultry industry is expected to see a price increase in H2 due to slight capacity reduction and seasonal demand [3] Group 3: Feed and Animal Health - The feed and animal health sectors are experiencing upward trends in H1 2025, driven by recovery in livestock and aquaculture stocks [4] - Sales, revenue, and profit growth accelerated in Q2 2025 [4] - Continued recovery in livestock stocks is anticipated, supporting recommendations for feed and animal health companies [4] Group 4: Seed Industry - The seed industry is facing significant pressure with a severe oversupply situation, leading to increased return rates [5] - Despite challenges, new leading companies are achieving substantial growth driven by successful products like Kangnong Yumi 8009 [5] Group 5: Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector is seeing a steady increase in brand market share, with exports expected to gradually recover [6] - Companies with Southeast Asia and global factory layouts are showing more stable growth [6] - Domestic demand remains resilient, with leading companies enhancing market share through supply chain advantages and brand strength [6] Group 6: Fruit Industry - The fruit industry is experiencing differentiation across various segments, with blueberries emerging as a new consumer favorite [7] - Companies are expanding production and improving efficiency, leading to steady growth [7] - The processing segment benefits from stable raw material prices and strong export demand, while retail faces challenges [7]
多地发放新一轮消费券,叠加四季度消费旺季,大消费或迎估值修复-股票-金融界
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-09-05 00:28
Group 1 - Recent initiatives in various cities to distribute consumption vouchers, with Ningbo launching a total of 60 million yuan in automotive consumption vouchers and Jinan starting its third round of retail and dining consumption vouchers [1] - The issuance of consumption vouchers has become normalized and precise this year, effectively stimulating demand for durable goods and services, particularly in the context of domestic demand and consumption driving economic growth [1] - The State Council's measures aim to restore and expand consumption, projecting a total retail sales of 47.15 trillion yuan for the year, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [2] Group 2 - The "Consumption Promotion Year" initiative by 14 departments is expected to further boost consumption, with national catering revenue surpassing 5 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 5.57 trillion yuan [2] - By 2025, the People's Bank of China will include consumer finance in its inclusive finance assessment, and various regions are launching digital yuan red envelopes, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [2] - Domestic models indicate that every 1 yuan of consumption vouchers can stimulate an additional 2.3 yuan in consumption, suggesting that policy tools still have room for expansion [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:印尼事件影响消退,沪镍不锈钢均回落-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential. For the stainless - steel market, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the main nickel contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,790 yuan/ton, a - 1.10% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,550 (- 3,232) lots, and the open interest was 84,729 (- 6,033) lots. Affected by the stronger US dollar index and the fading impact of the Indonesia event, the night - session price dropped sharply and then oscillated at a low level, with a daily - session amplitude of only 0.87% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The CIF price of 1.4% nickel ore was 50.5, showing a rising trend. The offer for 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia was 43.44. The Philippine side had firm quotes and good shipping efficiency. The domestic ferronickel price was stable, but domestic iron plants were still in the red and purchased cautiously. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the premium remaining at +24 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, a 1,800 - yuan drop from the previous day. Refined nickel trading was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 21,860 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 214,230 (+3,996) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel prices are mainly volatile, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 87,549 (- 43,080) lots, and the open interest was 86,864 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session opened slightly lower, then rebounded and oscillated around 12,965 yuan/ton. The daily - session gave back the night - session gains, with a minimum drop to 12,885 yuan/ton. The daily amplitude was only 0.81%, and the trading volume decreased by 43,100 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Spot**: The weakening of futures prices led to stronger market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders' price - concession behavior did not support spot transactions. Downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and market competition was fierce, resulting in poor transaction volume. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,250 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 355 - 655 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - With eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250904
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 00:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates remains high, and the risk appetite in the Chinese market has weakened. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the approaching peak season provides strong price support, but the marginal cooling of sentiment may increase the upward resistance of copper prices [1]. - The Fed Chair signaled dovishness, increasing market expectations of a September interest - rate cut. The relatively low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the marginal improvement in demand provide price support, but the aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - The Fed's high probability of interest - rate cuts and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector, along with the marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply, are expected to drive lead prices to run strongly [4]. - There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation of zinc. Although the short - term decline space is limited, it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [6]. - The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in the short term, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metals including nickel to strengthen. The nickel price has limited downward space and is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The lithium carbonate market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news [10]. - After the sharp decline of alumina futures prices, the downward space is limited, but the oversupply pattern makes it difficult to support a continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - With the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the stainless - steel consumption is expected to increase [14]. - The casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. With strong cost support and increasing market activity, the price may run at a high level in the short term [16]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - LME copper closed at $9974/ton, down 0.39%, and SHFE copper closed at 80260 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 158575 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 8.5%. In China, SHFE copper warrants slightly decreased to 19,000 tons. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2614/ton, down 0.29%, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20725 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions slightly increased to 557,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 60,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the aluminum price may fluctuate [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.09% at 16866 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1993/ton. The supply of lead concentrates is tight, and the smelting start - up rate is high. The lead price is expected to be strong [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.16% at 22284 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2864/ton. The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing, the smelting volume is expanding, and the demand has not improved significantly. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a low level [6]. Tin - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the supply of tin in Yunnan is short. The output of refined tin in September is expected to decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand is in the off - season, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate [7]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved, and the demand for stainless - steel production is expected to increase. The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the nickel price is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 1.91%. The market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply [10]. Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.99% to 2990 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, and the demand is expected to increase [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell slightly to 20285 yuan/ton. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price may run at a high level [16]
市场对远期供应宽松预期不变 碳酸锂期价连续调整
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-03 07:09
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with lithium carbonate futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.64%, settling at 72,220.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Summary - In August, Chile's lithium carbonate exports totaled 16,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.2% but a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - Exports to China accounted for 13,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [1] - Despite production disruptions from Jiangxi's mica mines, the market maintains expectations of ample future supply due to lithium extraction from salt lakes and imported spodumene [1] Demand Summary - The traditional consumption peak season, referred to as "Golden September and Silver October," is approaching, leading to an increase in power demand and sustained high levels of energy storage demand [1] - Production remains stable among leading companies in the downstream cathode materials sector [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, potential supply disruptions still exist, keeping lithium prices relatively firm, while demand remains robust, suggesting limited downside potential and a wide range of price fluctuations in the future [1]
新能源及有色金属日报:印尼扰动影响有限,沪镍价格小幅回落-20250903
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 06:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising material costs, and news - based stimulation. Future attention should be paid to the demand during the consumption peak season [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 123,210 yuan/ton and closed at 122,530 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 128,782 lots, and the open interest was 90,762 lots [1] - In the futures market, affected by the Indonesian event, the Shanghai nickel main contract continued to rise after the night - session opening, reaching a maximum of 123,810 yuan/ton, then fell back and fluctuated around 123,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, it dropped rapidly after the day - session opening, rebounded later, and dived again at the end of the session [1] - The price of nickel ore remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was acceptable. The bullish sentiment of downstream ferronickel strengthened. In Indonesia, the supply was relatively loose, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase I) decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars [1] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was acceptable, and the premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable [2] - **Strategy** - For the short - term, nickel prices will mainly fluctuate, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,629 lots, and the open interest was 91,035 lots [3] - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract continued to strengthen after the night - session opening and fluctuated slightly between 123,005 - 123,020 yuan/ton. After the day - session opening, affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel, the price slightly declined but still maintained a high - level fluctuating trend, with an amplitude of less than 100 yuan/ton throughout the day [3] - In the spot market, driven by the futures market, the list prices of large stainless steel manufacturers increased, and the market quotes followed suit. However, the downstream acceptance was low, and the actual trading was relatively sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 305 to 605 yuan/ton [3] - **Strategy** - The stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4][5]