2025年09月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：涨开工厂库小累，化社库降价促销 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱，中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：后期低位追空需谨慎，中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实但预期不悲观 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡承压，下方空间收窄 | 17 | | 尿素：周内走势关注现货节前收单，趋势仍偏弱 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：中期偏空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：短期窄幅震荡 | 23 | | 丙烯：短期高位偏弱 | 23 | | PVC：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：夜盘维持弱势，短期调整走势 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 19, 2025, the chemical market sentiment was average. The terminal of soda ash replenished stocks before the holiday, and the intraday market was weakly stable. Recently, the soda ash plants were under maintenance, and the overall supply decreased slightly from the high level. In the short term, the profitability of downstream glass increased, and some manufacturers stocked up before the holiday, driving the inventory reduction of soda ash plants. After the soda ash futures rebounded, it declined. With the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand, it is expected that the short - term trend of soda ash futures may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of policies such as environmental protection and production restrictions on the supply side and changes in macro - sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 19, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a volatile trend. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1305 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1321 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1301 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1318 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 922,000 lots, a decrease of 574,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.382 million lots, a decrease of 9942 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price | Contract Name | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda Ash 2511 | 1227 | 1242 | 1222 | 1238 | - 1 | - 0.08% | 174,755 | 132,155 | | Soda Ash 2601 M | 1305 | 1321 | 1301 | 1318 | 1 | 0.08% | 922,285 | 1,381,981 | | Soda Ash 2605 | 1397 | 1412 | 1394 | 1407 | 2 | 0.14% | 30,296 | 210,144 | [3] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 19, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared with September 18. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, etc [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Chain - related - Before the holiday, glass slightly replenished stocks, and the demand support was average. In September, the profit of photovoltaic glass turned from loss to profit, and terminal component manufacturers expanded raw material procurement, which generally supported the increase in soda ash demand. However, there were differences in the sales situation among different enterprises, and the confidence in the future market was slightly divided [6] 3.3.2 Fundamental - related - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1217.5, up 0.12%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The LPR remained unchanged this month. The capacity utilization rate at the mine end has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal varieties have rebounded, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has rebounded, the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On September 22, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1718.0, down 0.43%. The second - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan for stabilizing growth in the steel industry, aiming for an average annual increase of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with economic benefits stabilizing and rebounding, and market supply - demand becoming more balanced. On the demand side, the current period's hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.0047 million tons, with hot metal output fluctuating at a high level, and the coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide in the current period was 17 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1217.50 yuan/ton, down 14.50; J主力合约收盘价 was 1718.00 yuan/ton, down 20.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 950036.00 hands, down 7417.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 52497.00 hands, down 272.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 125357.00 hands, down 9486.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 5382.00 hands, down 64.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 89.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 133.50 yuan/ton, down 11.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 1550.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1009.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - class metallurgical coke was 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 2.50; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported main coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J主力合约基差 was - 53.00 yuan/ton, up 20.50 [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM主力合约基差 was 52.50 yuan/ton, up 14.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.80 million tons, up 1.20; the fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 304.40 million tons, up 23.80 [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, up 0.02; the raw coal output was 39049.70 million tons, up 951.00 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4274.00 million tons, up 713.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.00 thousand tons, up 4.40 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 515.32 million tons, up 48.97; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.80 million tons, up 2.49 [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 940.41 million tons, up 56.87; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 66.41 million tons, down 1.43 [2]. National Industry Situation - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 790.34 million tons, down 3.39; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 644.67 million tons, up 11.38 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.74 days, down 0.07; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.42 days, up 0.13 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 1016.22 million tons, up 55.50; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 55.00 million tons, down 34.00 [2]. - The coking coal output was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.87%, down 0.05 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 17.00 yuan/ton, down 52.00; the coke output was 4259.70 million tons, up 74.20 [2]. National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18 [2]. - The crude steel output was 7736.86 million tons, down 228.96 [2]. Industry News - Shanghai optimized and adjusted the property tax policy: the first - home purchase is exempt from property tax [2]. - The leaders of China and the US had a phone call. Trump said the call was "very productive", and he plans to meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC meeting and visit China early next year [2]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a series of theme press conferences on "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" at 3 pm on Monday, with Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, Li Yunze, and Zhu Hexin attending [2]. - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on carrying out a special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry, emphasizing that online trolls and "black - mouthed" critics cannot build good cars or good brands, and only through the coordinated efforts of government supervision, enterprise self - discipline, and platform responsibility can a good public opinion environment be created [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of methanol is rated as 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol price is expected to be in a state of oscillatory pressure, but the downside space is gradually narrowing. The upside pressure mainly comes from the supply - side of the fundamentals, while the downside support comes from the expectation of improved fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy [4][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,356 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume was 756,698 lots, an increase of 161,276 lots; the open interest was 928,408 lots, a decrease of 14,496 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,892 tons, a decrease of 315 tons; the trading volume was 1.782594 billion yuan, an increase of 380.062 million yuan. The basis was - 108, down 9 from the previous day, and the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 20, up 19 from the previous day [2]. - In the spot market, the Jiangsu ex - tank price was 0 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan from the previous day; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Market Analysis - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.78 million tons, an increase of 0.75 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. The inventory in East China decreased, while that in South China continued to increase [4]. - The short - term main contract shows an oscillatory pressure pattern. The upside pressure comes from the high import volume and high daily output in the supply - side of the fundamentals, which leads to an increase in inventory. The downside support comes from the expectation of improved fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy. Before the next Fed meeting in October and the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, the impact of the macro - end on the commodity market is relatively limited [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week of September 19, both the corn spot and futures markets declined. Newly harvested grains are gradually coming onto the market, and prices are weakening [1][2]. - The price of CBOT corn dropped by 1.4% in the week of September 19. The harvest pace in the US corn - growing belt is accelerating, and the rebound of the US dollar index has also pressured commodities priced in dollars [3]. - Corn starch inventory has decreased. As the Double Festival approaches, the downstream demand for the Double Festival stocking has gradually started, and the downstream terminal demand has slowly improved [5]. - In the short - term, the futures market will mainly fluctuate. The price decline rate is expected to be slow under the background of low carry - over stocks. Attention should be paid to the selling mentality after the new grains are listed [7]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Corn Market Review Spot Market - As of September 19, the national average corn price was 2360.39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous week. Different regions had different price ranges [1]. Futures Market - In the week of September 19, the futures market declined. The main contract (C2511) had a high of 2200 yuan/ton, a low of 2156 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2168 yuan/ton. The corn starch main 2511 contract closed at 2463 yuan/ton on September 19. The basis of the corn main C2511 contract strengthened [2]. 2. Corn Market Outlook CBOT Corn - In the week of September 19, CBOT corn futures dropped 1.4%. The harvest in the US corn - growing belt accelerated, and the dollar index rebound pressured commodities [3]. Wheat Price and Corn Auction - As of September 18, the national average wheat price was 2436 yuan/ton. The demand was sluggish, and the market was oversupplied. The feed substitution advantage of wheat was weakened, and the feed consumption demand decreased. There were various corn auction transactions with different planned and actual transaction volumes and changing transaction rates [4]. Corn Starch Inventory - As of the week of September 18, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 861,800 tons, a slight decrease of 13,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.53%, but an increase of 12.92% compared to the same period last year [5]. New Grain Listing - The prices of dry and wet grains are diverging, with the Northeast being slightly stronger and North China being weaker. In late September, the supply of new grains is expected to increase. The short - term futures market will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the selling mentality after the new grains are listed [7].

Group 1 - As of 15:00 today, LME nickel is trading around $15,350 per ton, while the main contract for Shanghai nickel closed down by 70 to 121,500 yuan per ton, indicating a lack of strong rebound but maintaining previous levels, with expectations for opportunities next week [1] - The stainless steel futures main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also saw a decline of 50 to 12,860 yuan per ton, reflecting a weak but stable market [1] - In the spot market, the stainless steel market is generally stable with flexible pricing strategies to stimulate sales, although the overall trading atmosphere remains quiet, with only specific specifications showing some activity [1] Group 2 - Afternoon reports indicate that the mainstream price for 304 private sector cold-rolled resources is in the range of 12,750-13,050 yuan, while the hot-rolled large plate resources are maintaining around 12,650-12,700 yuan, showing little change from earlier levels [1] - For 201 stainless steel, cold and hot rolled prices have decreased by 20-50 yuan, with J1 cold-rolled resources reported at 7,500-7,850 yuan, and J2 and J5 resources around 7,050-7,150 yuan, indicating a downward trend [1] - The market is experiencing narrow fluctuations as it approaches the end of the month, with demand present but not fully realized, suggesting potential opportunities for market participants [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound [1] - Alumina: Excess persists [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Cost-supported [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and spot market prices, costs, and inventories [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,785 yuan, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,705 US dollars, up 16 US dollars [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,931 yuan, down 14 yuan; the trading volume was 433,801 lots, down 15,367 lots [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,320 yuan, down 140 yuan; the trading volume was 277 lots, down 2,006 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 636,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 513,900 tons, up 30,100 tons [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,066 yuan, down 7 yuan; the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 349 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 0 yuan, down 141 yuan; the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,400 yuan, down 100 yuan [1]. Other Information - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. Japan's holdings hit a new high in over a year, China's holdings hit a new low in over sixteen years, and Canada's holdings decreased sharply by 57.1 billion US dollars [3]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Henghao's soybean oil futures [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soybean oil futures closed higher with a slight inflow of funds, indicating a slightly improved market sentiment. Despite significant inventory pressure at domestic ports and uncertainties in the US biodiesel policy, the high spot premium and the staged improvement in Malaysia's palm oil export data provide support. In the short term, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors and no clear single - sided driver, the futures price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. Future focus should be on the final decision of the US EPA's biofuel policy, the progress of China - US trade negotiations, and the actual performance of pre - festival stocking demand in China [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 16, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an overall volatile upward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,418 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton or 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 297,565 lots, and the open interest was 597,730 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 350,578 lots, and the total open interest was 849,672 lots, an increase of 6,022 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.1.3 Related Market - The daily trading volume of soybean oil options was 63,696 lots, and the open interest was 105,582 lots, an increase of 9,804 lots. The number of exercised options was 0 [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,640 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,418 yuan/ton, with a basis of 222 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On September 15, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 12,000 lots of corn futures contracts, 500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 1,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts, while net - buying 1,500 lots of wheat futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the mix of bullish and bearish factors. Key factors to watch include the US EPA's biofuel policy decision, China - US trade negotiation progress, and domestic pre - festival stocking demand [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1203.5, down 2.11%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. With the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market sentiment declined and commodities corrected. Coking coal mines' capacity utilization has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal prices have rebounded, and the capacity utilization of independent coal washing plants has increased. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On September 18, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1709.0, down 1.10%. The second - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. In August, China's rebar production was 1541.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; the cumulative production from January to August was 12867.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal output this period was 240.55 million tons, an increase of 11.71 million tons. After the impact of steel mill production control for the parade faded, the hot metal output returned to the previous level, and the coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 35 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1203.50元/吨，环比下降29.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1709.00元/吨，环比下降25.50元。JM期货合约持仓量为943381.00手，环比下降33552.00手；J期货合约持仓量为52987.00手，环比下降131.00手。焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 121141.00手，环比下降445.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 4538.00手，环比增加69.00手。JM5 - 1月合约价差为92.00元/吨，环比增加12.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为139.00元/吨，环比增加10.00元。焦煤仓单为200.00张，环比下降400.00张；焦炭仓单为1550.00张，环比无变化 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1000.00元/吨，环比上涨9.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，环比无变化。俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为149.00美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1520.00元/吨，环比无变化。京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1630.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比无变化。京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，环比上涨130.00元；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1520.00元/吨，环比无变化。山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1270.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1080.00元/吨，环比无变化。JM主力合约基差为66.50元/吨，环比增加29.50元；J主力合约基差为11.00元/吨，环比增加25.50元 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤日产量为26.80万吨，环比增加1.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤周库存为304.40万吨，环比增加23.80万吨。314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比增加0.02个百分点；原煤月产量为39049.70万吨，环比增加951.00万吨。煤及褐煤月进口量为4274.00万吨，环比增加713.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.00万吨，环比增加4.40万吨。16个港口进口焦煤周库存为466.35万吨，环比增加1.58万吨；18个港口焦炭周库存为258.31万吨，环比下降2.45万吨。独立焦企全样本炼焦煤周库存为883.54万吨，环比下降36.51万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭周库存为67.84万吨，环比增加1.33万吨。全国247家钢厂炼焦煤周库存为793.73万吨，环比下降2.03万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭周库存为633.29万吨，环比增加9.58万吨。独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.81天，环比下降0.28天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.29天，环比下降0.42天 [2]. Industry Situation - 炼焦煤月进口量为962.30万吨，环比增加53.11万吨；焦炭及半焦炭月出口量为55.00万吨，环比下降34.00万吨。炼焦煤月产量为4089.38万吨，环比增加25.00万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为75.92%，环比增加2.78个百分点。独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为35.00元/吨，环比下降29.00元；焦炭月产量为4259.70万吨，环比增加74.20万吨 [2]. Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.85%，环比增加3.47个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为90.20%，环比增加4.43个百分点。粗钢月产量为7736.86万吨，环比下降228.96万吨 [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points at its Wednesday meeting, the first rate cut this year and after a 9 - month hiatus. The latest dot - plot predicts two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, one more than the June forecast [2]. - On September 16, the First Plenary Meeting of the Third - Session Council of the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry Association was held in Tangshan, Hebei. The meeting reviewed and passed several proposals, including the Initiative on Maintaining Fair Competition Order and Jointly Resisting "Involution - style" Competition, the Proposal on Establishing a Coordination Working Group for Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition in the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry, and the Proposal on Establishing a Green - Low - Carbon Specialized Committee and an Artificial - Intelligence Specialized Committee of the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry Association [2]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's rebar production in August was 1541.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; the cumulative production from January to August was 12867.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean market, it is currently in the transition period between old and new soybeans, with the spot market operating steadily. Future focus should be on the listing rhythm of new soybeans and changes in downstream actual demand [2]. - For soybeans in the international market, according to the September USDA monthly report, although the yield per unit decreased, the planting area increased, leading to a slight increase in production to 4.301 billion bushels. The end - of - season inventory increased to 300 million bushels due to changes in demand. Market expectations for an effective procurement agreement from the Sino - US talks are low, and if the talks fail, US soybean exports will face further decline and demand pressure [2][3]. - For the domestic soybean meal market, downstream demand is weak, feed enterprise inventory is low, and oil mill inventory is accumulating. Recent policies also limit the feed demand for soybean meal, suppressing its price [3]. - For the domestic soybean oil market, due to sufficient soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates, supply is abundant. Although there is some increase in demand from schools and canteens, overall downstream inventory and supply enthusiasm are general, and inventory accumulation restricts prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main soybean No.1 contract was 3904 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the main soybean No.2 contract was 3660 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the main soybean meal contract was 2993 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the main soybean oil contract was 8284 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan. The settlement price of the active CBOT soybean contract was 1043.75 cents/bushel, down 6 cents; the CBOT soybean meal contract was 285.7 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars; the CBOT soybean oil contract was 51.78 cents/pound, down 1.42 cents [2]. - Contract positions: The main contract positions of soybean No.1 were 228,957 lots, up 2438 lots; soybean No.2 were 128,296 lots, up 2270 lots; soybean meal were 2,071,291 lots, up 1066 lots; soybean oil were 574,844 lots, down 13,601 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for soybean No.1 were - 40,493 lots, up 5031 lots; soybean No.2 were 1877 lots, up 2435 lots; soybean meal were - 743,277 lots, up 18,474 lots; soybean oil were - 117,616 lots, down 8302 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybean No.1 were 7878 lots, down 44 lots; soybean No.2 were 100 lots, unchanged; soybean meal were 29,065 lots, unchanged; soybean oil were 24,544 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Domestic soybean spot price was 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of soybean oil in Rizhao was 8420 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 8480 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Zhanjiang was 8590 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The basis of domestic soybean main contract was 76 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of Zhangjiagang soybean oil main contract was 196 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the basis of Zhangjiagang soybean meal main contract was - 43 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 4015 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - US soybean production was 117.98 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the end - of - season inventory was 8.44 million tons, up 0.41 million tons. Brazilian production was 175 million tons, unchanged; the end - of - season inventory was 39.96 million tons, up 5.67 million tons [2]. - The weekly inspection volume of soybeans was 29,681 thousand bushels, up 12,997 thousand bushels; the weekly export volume was 233,601 tons, down 173,006 tons. Brazilian monthly exports were 6.75 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Port inventory of imported soybeans was 6,622,320 tons, up 18,340 tons; weekly soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 0.0282 million tons; national port inventory of soybean oil was 1.203 million tons, up 0.002 million tons. The monthly import volume of soybeans was 11.6663 million tons, down 0.5976 million tons [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate was 66.35%, up 1.59 percentage points; the weekly oil mill crushing volume was 2.3604 million tons, up 0.0565 million tons [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian was 10,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The daily soybean - palm oil price difference was - 790 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil price difference was 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the daily average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2636.84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was 313.16 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The weekly trading volume of soybean meal in oil mills was 823,400 tons, up 304,600 tons; the weekly trading volume of soybean oil in oil mills was 81,500 tons, down 132,900 tons [2]. - The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 29 yuan/ton, down 59.2 yuan; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 57.35 yuan/ton, down 52.05 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - China's annual total domestic soybean consumption was 126.8 million tons, up 5.1 million tons; China's annual food consumption of soybean oil was 18.8 million tons, up 0.9 million tons [2]. - The daily price of live pigs (external ternary) in Daxing, Beijing was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the weekly expected profit of pig farming was - 52.03 yuan/head, down 16.26 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of feed was 28.273 million tons, down 1.104 million tons; the monthly live pig inventory was 42.447 million heads, up 0.716 million heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4.042 million heads, down 10,000 heads [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal was 11.37%, down 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal was 11.36%, down 0.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal was 13.17%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 11.79%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to industry analysts' surveys, as of the week ending September 11, the net increase in US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 0.4 - 1.5 million tons; the net increase in US soybean meal exports is expected to be 0.1 - 0.4 million tons; the net change in US soybean oil exports is expected to be a decrease of 5000 tons to an increase of 41,000 tons [2]. - In the production areas of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong, the remaining inventory of local soybeans has been basically cleared. Most traders are in the equipment maintenance stage after inventory clearance, and some have turned to purchasing new soybeans from Hubei, which supports local soybean prices. The sales areas are also cautious, closely monitoring the listing process of new soybeans [2].