证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 06 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 重要点评 【浙商银行 梁凤洁/徐安妮/陈建宇/周源】银行 行业深度：Q1 财报揭示哪些经营线索？——20250504 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 06 日 浙商早知道 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 浙商早报 1 重要点评 1.1 【浙商银行 梁凤洁/徐安妮/陈建宇/周源】银行 行业深度：Q1 财报揭示哪些经营线索？—— 20250504 1、主要事件 25Q1 银行业绩披露 2、简要点评 业绩概览：25Q1 上市银行业绩符合预期。整体来看，25Q1 上市行营收利润增速环比承压，一方面是 LPR 降息滞后性影响，另一方面是债市调整对营收形成拖累。25Q1 上市银行营收、利润同比-1.7%、-1.2%，增速 较 24A 回落 1.8pc、3.5pc。背后驱动因素来看， 25Q1 息差对营收拖累边际改善，税收对利润贡献增强，成本 拖累改善；非息增长放缓拖累营收，减 ...

价格是市场经济中很重要的信号，企业看到价格上升才会生产或扩大生产。那么为什么有企业愿意"以价换量"，降价也要生产呢？微观经济学中有个和宏 观领域相似的场景：面对产品售价持续走低，企业非但不缩减生产，反而选择"逆周期扩产"。这种看似矛盾的行为背后，暗含精密的成本核算逻辑。一些 很"卷"的企业甚至会一边降价，一边扩大生产。此时企业的经营目标已不是"利润最大化"，而是"亏损最小化"。经济运行中，很多工业和制造业部门的企 业都有"以价换量"的共同特征，即通过价格调整策略换取市场份额。这种行为虽能维系企业生存，但持续的价格下行可能会削弱市场信心。 回望日本经济史，1990年房地产市场的剧烈调整之后，实际GDP表现稳定但GDP平减指数持续下行，这种经济指标的"剪刀差"将决策者推向两难境地：当 实际GDP达标与价格持续低迷同时存在，政策该何去何从？面对这种特殊的经济形态，可能会有两种解决办法。一种观点是维持现有政策力度，守住实际 GDP就是守住经济基本盘；另一种观点是必须重视名义GDP收缩的现实，主张采取更积极的刺激政策。 当年日本在房地产调整后的前十年，日本央行尚未建立明确的价格调控机制。只要实际GDP保持正增长，便视为 ...

文 /高歌、李悦 今年一季度财政发展前置，趋势呈现温和回升态势，直接改善了非政府部门现金流，但CPI、PPI、 GDP平减指数仍处低位，低通胀情况并未改变，国内需求不足局面仍未完全摆脱。 一季度，国内资本市场的表现在类平准基金稳定下得以回稳，但真正的考验在于外部环境的变化对实 体部门的影响。外部冲击下，二季度挑战与隐忧仍存。 4月21日，在CF40 宏观政策季度报告发布会上，多位专家聚焦当前宏观经济形势与扩大消费的政策 选择。面对美"对等关税"冲击以及二季度财政发债退坡压力，短中长期如何有效扩大内需，扩大消 费的政策选择与排序等议题分享最新观点。 根据中国金融四十人研究院的估算，考虑到出口下降及其乘数效应，美国关税政策对中国经济的总体 影响约为2万亿元，占GDP比重约1.5个百分点。 "这种冲击在短期内会比测算结果更大，因为长期来看企业会想各种办法绕过这个问题。总的来说， 关税冲击是二季度经济面临的最大挑战。"4月21日，在CF40宏观政策季度报告发布会上，CF40资 深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示。 他进一步提示， 关税的冲击本质上是对需求的冲击 ， 我们要加大扩大内需力度，增加国内 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第11期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-10期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 如何理解后续政策节奏？ 4月初，美国对全球所谓"对等关税"落地，此后对华关税又持续升温。外需承压的背景下，"内需对冲外需"成为必然。人民日报 [1]《集中精力办好自己的事》亦明确指出"未来根据形势需要，降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地，随时可以出台；财政政策已明确要加大支出强 度、加快支出进度，财政赤字、专项债、特别国债等视情仍有进一步扩张空间；将以超常规力度提振国内消费"。金融市场对上述逆周期政策的预期亦显著升温。 应如何理解本轮政策节奏和后续政策落地时机？对此我们有几点理解： 一是外部贸易环境仍在继续变化的过程中。从特朗普政府相关政策表述来看，本轮逆全球化关税可能包括基础关税、对等关税、报复性关税、特定行业关税，后一 部分尚未落地。再加上美国关税政策反复无常，整体不确定性较大；非美区域的贸易条件亦需要继续观察。 二是在面对内外部环境变化时，往往会有一个"影响评估-政策定调-政策出台"的经验过程。比如2018年二季度美国对华关税落地，9月起制造业PMI放缓明显，四 季度货币政策取消"总闸门"的提法。再比如202 ...

Group 1 - The total profit of FOF funds exceeded 5.11 billion yuan in the previous year, with mixed FOFs showing the best overall profit of 2.56 billion yuan [2][5] - The top ten fund managers' FOF funds all reported positive total profits, with Xingzheng Global Fund leading at 1.00 billion yuan [2][3] - The management fees for the top ten fund managers' FOF funds decreased to 428 million yuan, down from 598 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] Group 2 - The structure of FOF fund holders has changed, with individual investors holding 117.43 billion units, a decrease of 26.87 billion units from last year [5] - Despite the decline in individual holdings, the number of FOF funds launched in 2024 has increased to 17, compared to 10 in the same period last year [5] - The average weekly return of mixed FOFs was limited to a decline of only 0.06% amidst a broader market adjustment [6] Group 3 - The A-share market continued its adjustment trend, with the average daily trading volume dropping to 1.1368 trillion yuan [6] - The performance of various sectors showed mixed results, with the electricity and public utilities, banking, and transportation sectors performing well, while the non-ferrous metals sector declined by 2.97% [7] - The top-performing FOF product last week was Qianhai Kaiyuan Yuze, with a weekly return of 0.91% [6][9]

文 ｜ 杨帆 玛西高娃 李想 本轮价格周期中，居民消费需求不足带来的CPI低位运行压力格外值得关注。本文详细分析了CPI 中四类核心参数（食品、原油、核心商品、核心服务）的变化趋势与内在逻辑，并基于此预测 2 0 2 5年全年CPI走势。中性情景假设下，我们预计前三个季度CPI同比读数可能仍在负值区间徘 徊，2 5Q4将出现明显回升。向后看，国内政策有充足储备应对外部"风高浪急"，我们预期国内逆 周期政策将以财政和货币为主要抓手出台增量政策保障经济的平稳发展和物价的温和回升。宏观经 济运行跟踪方面，3月PMI数据较上月回升，但系去年1 0月以来首次低于过去5年均值，反映制造 业景气有所回落；服务业、建筑业PMI较历史同期差距均有所扩大，非制造业景气较1 - 2月有所下 降。 本文详细拆解了影响CPI走势的四类核心参数： ▍ 参数一：食品，猪肉和牛肉这两类CPI高影响力品类年内或仍有一定价格下跌压力。畜肉在 CPI中占比在3%~ 4%之间，是主导CPI食品项波动的重要因素。 2 0 2 4年前三个季度，猪周期位于上行周期，全年为CPI贡献了约0 . 1个百分点的上涨动能。展望 2 0 2 5年，生猪存栏量指引下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the Ping An Money Market Fund's performance, management, and financial metrics for the year 2024, highlighting its focus on risk control and liquidity management while striving for stable returns. Group 1: Fund Overview - Fund Name: Ping An Money Market Fund [1] - Fund Manager: Ping An Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - Fund Custodian: Ping An Bank Co., Ltd. [1] - Fund Operation Type: Contractual open-end [1] - Fund Contract Effective Date: December 7, 2016 [1] - Total Fund Shares at Year-End: 14,833,343,541.23 shares [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Total Net Asset Value at Year-End: 7,371.89 million RMB [2] - Fund Share Net Value at Year-End: 1.0000 [2] - Annualized Yield for Ping An Money Market A: 1.8625% [12] - Annualized Yield for Ping An Money Market C: 1.6591% [3] - Annualized Yield for Ping An Money Market D: 0.4369% [12] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investment Objective: To achieve stable returns exceeding the performance benchmark while strictly controlling investment risks and maintaining high liquidity [1] - Investment Strategy: Adjusting the fund's investment portfolio based on predictions of short-term interest rate changes, with a focus on qualitative and quantitative analysis of various investment types [1] Group 4: Management and Compliance - Management Company Established: January 7, 2011, with a registered capital of 1.3 billion RMB [4] - Total Public Fund Management: 215 funds with total assets under management of approximately 637.1 billion RMB as of December 31, 2024 [4] - Compliance with Regulations: The fund management strictly adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring the protection of fund holders' interests [14][16] Group 5: Audit and Custody - Auditor: Ernst & Young Hua Ming [17] - Audit Opinion: Standard unqualified opinion on the financial statements [17] - Custodian's Compliance: The custodian, Ping An Bank, has fulfilled its duties without harming the interests of fund holders [16]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 招商蛇口 (001979.SZ) due to its focus on core cities and stable sales ranking [41][42]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a moderate recovery in social consumption, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% in retail sales for January-February 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [26]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a narrowing decline in sales, with a reported decrease of 5.1% in sales area for January-February 2025, compared to a 12.9% decline for the entire year of 2024 [31]. - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a rebound in online sales for liquor, with a 32.2% year-on-year increase in sales for February 2025, highlighting a recovery in consumer preferences [35]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The report discusses the economic impact of fertility subsidies, estimating that if implemented nationwide, these subsidies could lead to an increase in newborns by approximately 32,000 to 76,000 in the first year, potentially boosting GDP by 0.08%-0.09% annually [6][7]. Retail Sector - The retail sector's total sales reached 83,731 billion yuan in January-February 2025, with urban and rural sales growing by 3.8% and 4.6% respectively [26][27]. - Online retail sales grew by 7.3%, with physical goods sales increasing by 5.0%, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [28]. Real Estate Sector - The report notes that the sales area for commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than in previous periods, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [31][32]. - New housing starts fell by 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the construction sector [32][33]. Food and Beverage Sector - The online sales of liquor reached 1.62 billion yuan in February 2025, with a significant increase in average prices, suggesting a shift towards premium products [35][36]. - The report highlights a decline in online sales for snack foods, with a 17.3% year-on-year decrease, indicating challenges in this segment [37]. Company-Specific Insights - 招商蛇口 reported a revenue increase of 2.25% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 36.09% due to high land cost impairments [41][42]. - 丘钛科技 (01478.HK) has revised its profit forecast upwards for 2025, anticipating a net profit of 670 million yuan, driven by improvements in gross margins and operational efficiencies [46][47]. - 德赛西威 (002920.SZ) achieved a revenue growth of 26.06% year-on-year, with a strong performance in its intelligent driving segment, indicating robust demand in the automotive sector [50][51].

Core Viewpoint - The value bottom of the A-share market has formed despite external challenges such as tariff disputes and technological blockades, with opportunities for industrial upgrades, institutional reforms, and domestic demand recovery emerging in the current environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: A-share Market Value - The A-share market has shown structural trends driven by breakthroughs in the technology sector, with fields such as computers, machinery, automotive, and electronics leading the market [2]. - China's manufacturing value-added has ranked first globally for 15 consecutive years, with traditional industries like new energy expanding their technological barriers [2][3]. - The capital market is transitioning from a "financing-oriented" approach to an "investment win-win" model, supported by regulatory measures that protect investor interests [3]. Group 2: Long-term Research Strategy - The company emphasizes a long-term approach in its research business, focusing on cultivating internal values rather than recruiting well-known analysts from the industry [4][5]. - The success of the research team is attributed to the internal development of talent, with 25 teams recognized in the "2024 Securities Times Best Analyst Selection," achieving record scores [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Policy Insights - The chief economist highlighted that real estate and prices may still present significant discrepancies in expectations, indicating that counter-cyclical policies are increasingly necessary [6]. - The focus of these policies will significantly impact their execution and effectiveness, depending on whether the emphasis is on quantity or price [6].