Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported a 2.5% increase in total deposits of recognized institutions in May 2025, reflecting corporate fund flows [1] Group 1: Deposit Trends - Total deposits and Hong Kong dollar deposits increased by 6.7% and 7.9% respectively from the beginning of the year to the end of May [1] - Hong Kong's Renminbi deposits fell by 5.4% in May, totaling 975.6 billion Renminbi, primarily due to corporate fund flows [1] - Cross-border trade settlement in Renminbi amounted to 1,123.6 billion Renminbi in May, down from 1,362.1 billion Renminbi in April [1] Group 2: Money Supply - The Hong Kong dollar money supply M2 and M3 both rose by 3.2% in May, with year-on-year increases of 9.5% [1] - Seasonally adjusted Hong Kong dollar money supply M1 increased by 12.3% in May, with a year-on-year rise of 18.5%, partly reflecting investment-related activities [1] - Total money supply M2 and M3 both increased by 2.5% in May, with year-on-year increases of 10.7% for both M2 and M3 [1]

Group 1 - The market is undergoing a transformation phase, driven by deep changes in macroeconomic functions, with the Federal Reserve acting as a "shock absorber" despite persistent inflation data [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will be a key catalyst, forecasting an addition of 85,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 113,000 [1] - Market liquidity is becoming the dominant force, replacing fundamentals, indicating that the market has become a policy tool [1] Group 2 - Institutional clients are cautious about chasing U.S. stocks due to weak corporate earnings outlook, the disappearance of "put options" from the Federal Reserve, and turmoil in the bond market [2] - The U.S. may enter a liquidity-driven cycle, while Europe relies on fiscal stimulus, with a preference for excess liquidity over government balance sheets [2] - In sector selection, cyclical industries in the U.S. (industrial, materials) are favored over bank stocks, which need a steepening yield curve and real growth to benefit [2] Group 3 - Stocks are fundamentally inflation assets, with a preference for the S&P 500 index to rise alongside U.S. Treasury yields [3] - The correlation between stocks and Treasury yields suggests a low acceptance of the "new cycle" narrative, with most trades linked to yield expansion and stock declines [3] - Macro factors have returned, leading to increased volatility, but asset prices may not move in a single direction, with a baseline scenario of rising Treasury yields and stock prices [3]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《超长期限：行情还能走多远？——信 用周报 20250625》 - 2025.06.26 固收周报 7 月利率会破新低么？ ——流动性周报 20250629 ⚫ 止盈节奏可能是 7 月交易的胜负手 季末流动性维持宽松，资金价格季节性上行，最后一个工作日"堆 积"效应显著。本季末的跨季进度显著偏慢，6 月最后一个工作日是 周一，"堆积"效应可能带来资金面的波动加剧，但这大概率不会改变 7 月初资金面恢复到更加宽松的状态。相对而言，短端票息品种的表 现随市场情绪波动，同业存单在最后一周的抢跑效应明显减弱，利率 小幅提高，反映季末效应对于存单利率的影响。 长期利率也在抢跑后回到"低波动"状态。6 月最后一周，一方 面，抢跑之后的交易空间逼仄；另一方面，流动性宽松因素季节性减 弱；此外，权益市场情绪的显著修复也通过股债跷板压制债市。故 6 月末，长端利率并未"一鼓作气"，凝聚更多突破式下行的力量，相对 于已经拉长的久期和提高的仓位，交易盘进一步突 ...

物价低位，经济分化 [Table_Authors] 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 25 期） 本报告导读：经济生产和需求两端均呈结构性分化，物价整体下行 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.29 2025-06-30 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 上周经济数据分化，有待政策发力。消费方面，商品消费边际改善， 汽车批发零售回升，纺服需求修复，暑期人口流动和游乐消费旺盛， 但高端餐饮酒水受政策影响，茅台价格回落，电影、旅游消费平淡。 投资方面，专项债发行提速，新房销售季末冲量但不及往年，二手 房成交下滑，基建和房建进度边际改善。进出口方面，运力恢复但 外需平淡，BDI 指数下跌。生产方面，除高温下生活用电增加带动耗 煤回升，其余行业大多承压，钢铁、石化行业表现一般，新兴行业 中光伏表现较佳。库存方面，中下游行业以补库为主。物价方面， CPI 和 PPI 整体下跌，原油、水泥等品类仍在降价，不过钢铁、铜铝、 碳酸锂等金属品类有所涨价。流动性方面，美元指数降至 98 以下， 月末央行净投放呵护 ...

午夜时分，济南街头的大排档烟火升腾，在油腻的塑料桌椅间，一位身着简约T恤的年轻人举起硕大的 扎啤杯，与满座好友碰撞出清脆的声响。 当粉丝举杯上前，他毫不犹豫地起身碰杯，扎啤泡沫顺着杯沿流淌，这种毫无架子的亲民姿态，与印象 中豪门公子的刻板形象形成戏剧性反差。 餐桌上堆叠的竹签见证着豪门的市井胃口：羊肉串外层焦香内里鲜嫩，麻辣小龙虾的红油浸透一次性手 套，拍黄瓜的蒜香混合着炭火气息。 当隔壁桌的食客迟疑着举起手机拍照时，镜头捕捉到的竟是赌王之子何猷君——这位身家千亿的豪门继 承人，此刻正撕扯着烤串，任由油渍沾染指尖。 三辆轿车悄然停靠在夜市边缘，四名保镖隐入人群，何猷君选择坐在最外侧的位置，褪去所有身份标 签。 何猷君咀嚼时鼓动的腮帮，与邻桌光膀大汉的神态别无二致。 大排档老板珍藏的消费单上，七人878元的数字赫然在目——不足豪门宴席一道菜的零头，却成为最具 说服力的阶层穿越证明。 这不是何猷君首次现身市井，从上海弄堂馄饨摊到广州肠粉店，精英阶层正在集体上演"向下流动"的消 费行为艺术。 当米其林餐厅成为商务标配，烟火缭绕的街头食肆反而成为身份解压的秘径。 心理学研究显示，高压力群体通过融入市井场景，能有效获得 ...

与传统黄金投资渠道相比，国际主流交易市场提供的XAU/USD（黄金兑美元）产品呈现三大特性： 对于希望配置黄金资产的普通投资者，需重点关注三大核心要素： 1. 时间连续性（24小时跨市场交易） 2. 纽约COMEX、伦敦LBMA、上海黄金交易所三大市场接力开市，使投资者可实时响应突发事件。2022年俄乌冲突爆发当晚，国际金价在亚市时段瞬 时波动达3.5%，灵活的交易机制让亚太投资者成功捕捉到窗口机会。 3. 双向风险对冲 4. Bloomberg数据显示，美元指数与黄金价格相关系数长期维持在-0.8以上。在美联储加息周期中，具备多空双向操作能力的交易工具，成为对冲本币贬 值的有效手段。 5. 高流动性溢价 6. 国际清算银行（BIS）统计显示，外汇市场日均交易量超7.5万亿美元，其中贵金属相关货币对占12.7%。这种深度流动性确保在2020年3月全球资产抛 售潮中，黄金报价仍维持正常点差，而部分黄金ETF曾出现10%以上溢价。 三、个人参与路径的风险管控要点 据世界黄金协会2025年报告显示，全球央行连续16个季度净购金，年度增储量达1297吨，刷新历史纪录创1971年美元与黄金脱钩以来最高纪录。这种机构 级 ...

Group 1 - The main board ST stocks' price fluctuation limit has been increased from 5% to 10%, affecting 129 companies in the main board ST sector [1] - This adjustment aims to unify the price fluctuation limits of risk warning stocks with other stocks, enhancing market order and protecting the rights of small and medium investors [1] - The change is expected to reduce trading obstacles and promote capital market reforms, potentially leading to a fairer environment across different market segments [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the number of newly established public funds reached 661, with a total issuance scale of 526.1 billion, indicating a recovery in market confidence [2] - The increase in equity fund issuance is expected to continue in the second half of the year, becoming a focus for fund companies [2] - This trend reflects an improvement in market risk appetite, positively impacting market sentiment and liquidity [2] Group 3 - The number of public fund managers reached a record high of 4,041 in the first half of the year, marking a 19% increase from the beginning of the year [3] - The industry is experiencing accelerated talent turnover, with a record number of fund managers leaving and new ones being hired, which may affect investor perceptions of research capabilities [3] - The increase in fund managers may lead to a more diverse market style and a subtle adjustment in the ecosystem of institutional investors [3] Group 4 - Dong Fang has been appointed as the president of Zhuhai Wealth Management, bringing extensive asset management and wealth management experience from the China Merchants Group [4] - This leadership change reflects internal resource integration within the China Merchants Group and may impact the competitive landscape of the bank wealth management sector [4] - The appointment signifies ongoing talent mobility and strategic adjustments within the financial industry, which could influence market sentiment and industry expectations [4]

美国流动性宽松预期强化，看多基本金属 20250627 摘要 美国 7 月面临多重关键事件：国会休会前夕的投票、对欧盟关税豁免到 期以及美联储潜在降息决策，这些因素共同影响商品市场和下半年流动 性预期，尤其是 7 月 4 日经济刺激法案落地与否至关重要。 美联储官员释放降息信号，主席鲍威尔暗示关税积极变化是降息条件， 市场传闻中美贸易缓和，若 7 月经济刺激落地，将形成宽财政和宽流动 性双重支持，利好基本金属需求和抗通胀能力。 COMEX 铜与 LME 铜价差扩大至 1,400 美元/吨，溢价率达 14.2%，主 因市场预期美国可能落地铜的 232 调查，叠加 LME 限制多单交易， COMEX 市场更为积极，推动价差走高，带动伦铜和沪铜走强。 国内铜市场远期价格疲软，远月合约从 Contango 转为 Backwardation，不利于权益投资，因股票市场偏好现货价格上涨且远 期基差扩大的走势，当前状况可能导致投资者对股票投资持谨慎态度。 宏观预期上调、流动性释放、现货低库存以及中报季临近，共同支撑基 本金属价格上行，业绩、宏观预期和短期交易行为共振，有望推动基本 金属价格上涨。 Q&A 2025 年 7 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.

Group 1 - The company held its fourth meeting of the seventh board of directors on June 26, 2025, with all nine directors present, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations [1] - The board approved a proposal to apply for a working capital loan of 160 million yuan from Guangxi Beibu Gulf Bank to support the procurement of raw materials and operational cash flow [1][2] - The loan's interest rate, term, and guarantee method will be determined by the bank's final credit approval [2] Group 2 - The board agreed to a new guarantee limit of up to 440 million yuan for the company's subsidiaries to secure loans from financial institutions, with the guarantee being reusable [2] - The guarantee methods may include joint liability guarantees, pledges, and mortgages, and the approval is subject to the upcoming shareholders' meeting [2][3] - The company plans to hold its second extraordinary shareholders' meeting on July 15, 2025, combining on-site and online voting [3]