Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overnight economic data in the US showed an overall improvement. The better - than - expected retail data in June and the decline in the weekly initial jobless claims drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend. Gold maintains a long - term bullish trend, and silver retains a medium - term bullish view with cautious consideration of its elasticity. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade game in the first half of August and the change in interest - rate cut expectations brought by the global central bank meeting in the second half of August, as well as the trading interference from the "shadow Fed chairman" in the second half of the year. The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the highest since March this year, with an expected increase of 0.1% and a previous decrease of 0.9%. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.3% and a previous decrease (revised) of 0.2% [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 221,000, with an expected 235,000. The four - week average was 229,500. The number of continued jobless claims as of the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million [2]. - US President Trump said he has no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell unless fraud is proven. He also said he would accept Powell's resignation if Powell wants to [2]. - The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that economic activity in the US slightly rebounded from June to July. Import tariffs pushed up costs, and inflation may accelerate by the end of summer. Employment slightly increased, but companies were more cautious in hiring and lay - off decisions. The Fed's policy rate remained unchanged, and most officials were waiting to observe the impact of trade policies and inflation trends [2]. Price Logic The market had short - term fluctuations around the issue of Powell's possible dismissal. After Trump denied the dismissal rumor, market sentiment subsided. The overall improvement in US economic data drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which maintained a short - term volatile trend. Long - term gold is bullish, and medium - term silver is also bullish with cautious consideration of its elasticity [3]. Outlook The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve policies, trade tensions, and rising geopolitical risks [3][5][10] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight recovery in U.S. economic activity, but manufacturing remains weak, with rising raw material costs due to tariffs, leading to increased inflation risks [3][5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have decreased from 35% to 23%, which has strengthened the U.S. dollar and put short-term pressure on gold prices [5] Group 3 - The escalation of trade tensions, with the U.S. imposing significant tariffs on imports from Japan, Brazil, and Sri Lanka, is expected to impact global trade dynamics and support gold prices as a safe-haven asset [6] - Historical data suggests that during periods of heightened trade friction, gold prices typically trend upwards, indicating a potential bullish outlook for gold amid current trade uncertainties [6] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the conflict in Yemen and the Suez Canal crisis, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven investment, with insurance premiums for war risks reaching a 15-year high [7] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern issues, contribute to market uncertainty, further driving gold's appeal [7] Group 5 - Technically, gold prices are oscillating between key moving averages, indicating a consolidation phase, with potential for either a short-term pullback or further upward movement depending on price action around critical levels [8] Group 6 - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to its characteristics of low correlation with traditional financial assets and steady returns, making it attractive to global investors [10] - Future developments to monitor include the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, progress in August tariff negotiations, and the evolution of geopolitical situations, all of which will influence gold's trajectory [10]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9204, with an opening price of 9110 and a current price of 9213, reflecting a 0.70% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 9244, while the lowest is 9095, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The analysis suggests that silver will benefit more than gold from the anticipated easing of monetary policy, with a recommended trading range for the main silver contract set between 9020 and 10000 per kilogram [4] Group 2 - AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver indicates that Australia's unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since the pandemic, supporting the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia should lower interest rates [3] - The basic forecast from AMP predicts rate cuts in August, November, February, and May of the following year, with the potential for quicker policy easing due to weak employment data [3] - The initial consumer confidence index for July from the University of Michigan is expected to rise to 61.5 from June's final value of 60.7, with inflation expectations also being closely monitored [3]

双焦冲高回落，日内涨幅有所收窄，政策预期博弈库存压力，焦炭第二轮提涨酝酿中，后续该如何看 待？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]

辽宁曙光汽车集团股份有限公司 财务报表附注 辽宁曙光汽车集团股份有限公司 一、公司基本情况 (一)公司注册地和组织形式 辽宁曙光汽车集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"，在包含子公司时统称本集团） 于 1993 年 3 月 2 日经辽宁省体改委辽体改发〔1993〕5 号文批准设立（企业法人统一社会信 用代码：91210600120109772C）。2000 年 12 月 6 日，经中国证券监督管理委员会（证监发 行字〔2000〕165 号文）批准，本公司股票在上海证券交易所上市交易，证券代码 600303。 经过历年的派送红股、配售新股、转增股本及增发新股，截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，本 公司累计发行股本总数：68360.4211 万股，注册资本：68360.4211 万元。本公司注册地址： 丹东市振安区曙光路 50 号，法定代表人：贾木云。 本公司控股股东为北京维梓西咨询管理中心（有限合伙），实际控制人为权维、梁梓。 股东会是本公司的最高权力机构，依法行使公司经营方针、筹资、投资、利润分配等重大事 项决议权。董事会对股东会负责，依法行使公司的经营决策权；经理层负责组织实施股东会、 董事会决议事项 ...

市场可能正在低估美国长期的通胀风险。德意志银行一份最新研究报告指出，尽管关键的通胀预期指标表面上保持稳定，但深入分析揭示市场对 未来通胀的真实担忧已接近十年来的最高水平，这背后与关税威胁及对美联储独立性的担忧紧密相关。 华尔街见闻文章显示，美国6月核心CPI连续5个月低于预期，市场通胀预期指标也显得相对温和。德银分析指出，近期，衡量市场长期通胀预期 的关键指标——5年期、5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率（5y5y breakevens）和通胀互换（inflation swaps）——虽然已升至近十二个月的高位，但整体 仍处于受控区间。 然而，德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti及其团队在7月17日发布的报告中警告称，这种表面的平静具有欺骗性。该行分析发现，一 旦剥离油价波动对这些指标的强烈影响，一个更能反映真实通胀担忧的"风险溢价"指标便显现出来，且已攀升至2014年以来的最高水平附近。 被油价"扭曲"的通胀预期 潜在风险溢价升至十年高位 衡量市场长期通胀预期的关键指标很大程度上是受油价走势影响。报告指出，自2014年中期油价暴跌以来，现货油价与5年/5年远期盈亏平衡通胀 率及通胀互换等长期通胀 ...

Group 1 - Global capital markets are experiencing a new upward trend, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing strong performance as investor risk appetite increases [1] - The core catalyst for this trend is the rising expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, driven by political pressure from Trump on Powell [1] - Historical data suggests that once a rate cut occurs, both equity assets and gold will benefit from increased liquidity, although short-term pullback risks for gold should be monitored [1] Group 2 - A-shares have broken through the 3500-point mark, with potential to challenge the previous high of 3700 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index approaches the 25000-point level [2] - The market is witnessing a rotation in sectors, with humanoid robots, Nvidia's supply chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, and brokerage stocks showing strong performance [2] - Consumer sectors, particularly traditional brands like liquor, are seeing adjustments that may present buying opportunities, while new consumption stocks are showing signs of overvaluation [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polycrystalline Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean (MO1), Pulp [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Cotton, Manganese Silicon, Pure Metal, Soda Ash, Corn (C01), Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Silicomanganese, Coking Coal, Coke, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar, Corn (C09), Live Pig, Energy Chemicals (including various sub - items), etc. [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the market's increased willingness to allocate equity assets and positive market sentiment [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest rate risk prompted by the central bank restricts the upward space [1] - Gold is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term due to market uncertainties, while the strengthening dollar may suppress silver prices [1] - Copper prices have a risk of supplementary decline, aluminum and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and zinc prices are under pressure [1] - Nickel and stainless steel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but a risk of a downward - moving center in the long term [1] - Some commodities like polycrystalline silicon are bullish, while others such as manganese silicon are bearish, and most commodities are in an oscillating state due to various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment [1] Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: The reaction of the recent stock index to negative news is significantly dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets increases, and market sentiment is boosted by "anti - involution" and real - estate policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market uncertainties remain, and the price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1] - **Silver**: The strengthening dollar may suppress the price [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation in August bring a risk of supplementary decline in copper prices [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, inventory rises, and prices oscillate weakly; alumina has a good profit, with rising production and inventory, and its price also oscillates weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The weakening of interest - rate cut expectations and the gradual realization of inventory - accumulation expectations put pressure on zinc prices [1] - **Nickel**: The interest - rate cut expectation weakens, and the price oscillates. There is a short - term opportunity to short on rallies, and long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The interest - rate cut expectation falls, raw - material prices weaken, inventory increases, and attention should be paid to production and raw - material changes [1] - **Tin**: Short - term fundamentals are supported, but there is a risk of a downward - moving price center in the long term [1] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreases in the north and increases in the south, demand from polycrystalline silicon increases marginally but may decrease later, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Bullish due to no supply reduction and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply does not decrease, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and market sentiment is high [1] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support, and prices oscillate [1] - **Iron Ore**: Commodity sentiment is good, but fundamentals are marginally weakening, and prices oscillate [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Production increases slightly, supply - demand is relatively balanced, and prices oscillate [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish due to expected international demand growth, an upward - adjusted reference price in Malaysia, and short - term exhaustion of negative factors [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Australian rapeseed may enter the domestic market, Sino - Canadian trade frictions continue, and domestic rapeseed inventory is low [1] - **Cotton**: There are trade - negotiation and weather premiums in US cotton in the short term, and macro - uncertainties are strong in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the weakening of crude oil may affect the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop inventory is tightening, but downstream procurement is cautious. New - season corn has a good yield and lower production costs [1] - **Soybean**: There are expectations of increased Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and the import cost supports the price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by strong commodity sentiment and low valuation, it is expected to rise in the short term [1] - **Live Pig**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ is expected to increase production, and short - term consumption in Europe and the US is strong, so prices oscillate [1] - **HK and BR Rubber**: HK has a weakening downstream demand and strong supply - release expectations; BR rubber has cost - end support from partial device overhauls [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: PTA supply contracts, but crude oil is strong, and polyester downstream load remains high; ethylene glycol has a large expected arrival volume later, but overseas supply may contract [1] - **Short Fiber and Styrene**: Short - fiber factories have more overhauls and low warehouse - receipt registration; styrene device load recovers, and the basis weakens [1] - **Fertilizer**: Domestic demand is average, but export expectations improve in the second half of the year [1] - **PVC and Chlor - Alkali**: PVC has a good market sentiment but faces seasonal supply pressure; chlor - alkali has a repaired comprehensive profit and more expected warehouse receipts [1] - **LPG**: Crude - oil support is insufficient, it is in the seasonal off - season for demand, and the price oscillates weakly [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectations, with the freight rate expected to peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend [1]