Core Viewpoint - The tire industry in China is experiencing moderate growth in 2024, with overall revenue increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, while total profits have decreased by 8.5%, indicating a divergence in economic performance among companies in the sector [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Leading companies such as Linglong Tire, Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and General Tire have reported significant profit increases, with net profits growing by 26.01%, 31.42%, 59.74%, and 72.81% respectively [2]. - Conversely, Triangle Tire has seen a substantial profit decrease of 21.03%, attributed to rising raw material costs and a slight decline in sales volume [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The tire industry is characterized by a "high first half, low second half" trend in 2024, with full steel tire production increasing by 2.7% in the first half but declining by 3.2% in the second half, while semi-steel tire production remains in a growth phase [4]. - The industry is facing increased cost pressures due to rising prices of natural and synthetic rubber, which have not been fully offset by price increases in tire sales [3]. Group 3: Industry Disparity - There is a growing disparity in performance among tire companies, with a few leading firms accounting for 70% of the industry's profits despite only representing one-third of sales revenue [5]. - Companies achieving better performance are often those that have made advancements in technology and overseas expansion [6]. Group 4: Export and Global Market - China's tire exports have shown positive growth, with a 4.9% increase in weight, a 10.5% increase in quantity, and a 5.5% increase in export value in 2024 [7]. - The global market is seeing a shift as Chinese tires gain market share in Europe and other regions due to competitive pricing [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The tire industry is expected to enter a phase of capacity reduction due to ongoing cost pressures and trade frictions [9]. - The demand for tires is anticipated to be bolstered by the growth of the electric vehicle market, with production and sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [10]. - Trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. and Mexico, pose significant risks to the industry, prompting companies to enhance their overseas operations to mitigate these challenges [11].

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks resulted in a reduction of tariffs on Chinese steel and steel products exported to the US, down to 65% and 63% respectively [1] - The slight easing of steel tariffs during the 90-day exemption period is expected to support the resilience of indirect steel exports from China [1] Group 2: Export and Import Data - In April, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, while imports were 522,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7% [1] - From January to April, China's total steel exports reached 37.891 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year, while imports totaled 2.072 million tons, down 13.9% [1] Group 3: Global Steel Market Conditions - As of May 8, the export prices for hot-rolled coils from India, Turkey, and the CIS regions were $595/ton, $550/ton, and $460/ton respectively, while China's price was $462/ton [2] - In March, global crude steel production reached 166.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with non-China regions producing 73.3 million tons, up 0.5% [2] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Orders - The global manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.1%, indicating a decline, while China's manufacturing PMI for new export orders was at 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The steel export order index for Chinese steel companies continued to contract, with a new export order index of 41.0 in April, down 0.1 percentage points [3] Group 5: Trade Tensions and Protectionism - Recent trade tensions include Brazil's anti-dumping ruling on galvanized and aluminum-zinc plates from China, India's temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports, and Canada's anti-dumping investigation into carbon and alloy steel wire from multiple countries including China [4] - Despite a slight easing in the foreign trade environment, the trend of trade protectionism is expected to suppress future steel exports from China [4]

此前美国对等关税落地，市场担忧贸易链断裂可能拖累经济增长并推高通胀，风险资产普遍遭遇抛售， 铜价也难逃跌势。随后贸易冲突开始缓和，铜价迎来修复之路，但是可以看到沪铜在4月初跳空缺口处 明显承压，而下方支撑同样较强，期价一直在78000一线附近横盘震荡。最近沪铜为何进退两难？后续 期价有可能打破震荡局面吗？ 关税缓冲期不确定性仍存 最近美国与各国谈判进行中，特别是在中美90天对等关税下调到10%后，市场一度交易关税局势缓和逻 辑，不过部分谈判推进较为缓慢，最近特朗普态度变化，再次提议加征欧盟关税，市场也在担心关税缓 冲期过后贸易摩擦再起的可能性，短期关税缓和的利好已经基本消化，难以对市场情绪构成更多支撑。 另外，为了转移国内债务规模庞大等矛盾，美国对其他国家关税很难恢复至今年以前水平，经济增长前 景担忧无法轻易解除。从最近公布的美国经济数据来看，目前关税扰动所带来的冲击有限，美国4月通 胀表现低于预期，零售销售月率超预期上升0.1%，5月Markit制造业和服务业PMI也均超预期。不过美 国高额债务问题仍然存在，6月还有大量美债集中到期，最近特朗普的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通 过，市场继续担心美国债台高筑，关 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight increase followed by a decline, with average daily trading volume dropping to 1.18 trillion yuan, reflecting limited short-term policy expectations and uncertainties from external shocks [1] - The market style performance showed that consumption outperformed, followed by cyclical, financial, and growth sectors, with most industries declining [1] - Despite external pressures, domestic economic resilience is expected to support the market, with positive developments in US-China trade negotiations anticipated to bolster the domestic economy in Q2 [1] Group 2 - The ongoing US-EU trade friction is expected to benefit safe-haven assets and companies with high export ratios to Europe, while the potential for increased tariffs on European goods may lead to heightened trade tensions [2] - The technology growth sector, particularly in AI, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, is anticipated to perform well following earnings reports, despite recent pullbacks in self-sufficient sectors [2] - The market may react positively to perceived risks, with potential for increased pressure from the US on the EU, which could ultimately favor safe-haven assets [2]

2025 年 5 月 26 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、白银、铜、玻璃、纯碱、原 油、PTA 期货将偏强震荡 氧化铝、螺纹钢期货将偏弱震荡 股指期货将偏弱震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3881 和 3905 点，支撑位 3822 和 3798 点；IH2506 阻力位 2715 和 2726 点，支撑位 2681 和 2664 点；IC2506 阻力位 5616 和 5666 点，支撑位 5530 和 5492 点；IM2506 阻力位 5942 和 6019 点，支撑位 5801 和 5742 点。 十年期国债期货主力合约 T2509 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 108.90 和 109.00 元，支撑位 108.69 和 108.62 元。 三十年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 119.7 和 120.0 元，支撑位 119.4 和 119.0 元。 黄金期货主力合约 AU2508 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 790.8 和 797.4 元/克，支撑位 780.2 和 775.2 元/克。 白银期货主力合约 AG2508 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 8 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The international political and economic landscape experienced significant turbulence last week, with Trump announcing a 50% tariff on the EU starting in June, leading to a surge in gold prices and a sharp decline in the euro. The EU is preparing a countermeasure worth €95 billion [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to add $2.3 trillion to $3.3 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, raising market concerns about U.S. debt risks [1] - The Federal Reserve's independence was supported by a Supreme Court ruling, but there are notable divisions among officials regarding the path for interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly between Israel and Iran, with Israel's military actions drawing international condemnation. Trump's mediation efforts for a ceasefire in Ukraine faced setbacks [1] - This week, market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's policy minutes, expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, economic data from Europe and the U.S., and OPEC+ production plans, amidst ongoing trade tensions, debt risks, and geopolitical conflicts [1] Dollar Index - Last Friday, the dollar index showed a downward trend, reaching a high of 99.917 and a low of 99.019, closing at 99.078. The market experienced a significant decline, indicating a bearish outlook [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 101.70, suggesting a bearish trend in the medium term. Key resistance on the daily chart is at 100.30, with further pressure expected below this level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices generally increased last Friday, peaking at 3365.76 and closing at 3359.92. The price action indicates a bullish trend, supported by previous resistance levels [4] - An analysis of multiple timeframes shows that gold is supported at the 3160 level on the weekly chart, with a bullish outlook unless this support is broken. Daily support is at 3280, and short-term support is at 3323-3324 [5][6] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend last Friday, with a low of 1.1277 and a high of 1.1375, closing at 1.1364. The market demonstrated strong bullish momentum, particularly after breaking through key resistance levels [8] - Multi-timeframe analysis indicates long-term bullish sentiment, with support at 1.0800 on the monthly chart and 1.1090 on the weekly chart. The daily chart shows a recent upward breakout, maintaining bullish expectations [8]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market continues to decline, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all experiencing a cumulative drop of over 2% for the week [3] - Major tech stocks, including Apple, saw significant losses, with Apple dropping over 3% in a single day and nearly 7.6% for the week, marking its largest weekly decline of the year [3] - Trump's announcement of a potential 25% tariff on phones not produced in the U.S. directly impacts Apple, raising concerns about supply chain costs [3] Commodity and Safe-Haven Assets - Traditional industrial metals and gold have surged, with U.S. Steel rising 21% in a single day due to news of a partnership with Japan's Nippon Steel [3] - Gold prices increased significantly, with spot gold rising 4.83% and futures up 5.4% for the week, driven by heightened market risk aversion [3] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index soared by 7.7%, while copper prices also rose nearly 4% [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Golden Dragon Index for Chinese stocks saw a slight increase of 0.05%, but individual stock performance varied widely [4] - Bilibili rose by 3%, while Miniso plummeted by 17%, and companies like NIO and Xpeng also faced declines, likely due to weak consumer data [4] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.6% to 4.44% following Trump's comments but rebounded by the end of the week, indicating market uncertainty regarding trade tensions [5] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by over 9 basis points for the week, suggesting a divergence in institutional views on inflation and economic outlook [5] Currency and Oil Market - The offshore RMB reached a high of 7.17, the strongest since November, attributed to a weaker dollar [5] - Oil prices, including WTI and Brent, ended a streak of gains, falling over 1% due to OPEC+ plans to potentially increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in July [5] Investment Strategy Insights - The current market environment is characterized by volatility due to high valuations in tech stocks and trade tensions, suggesting a need for careful investment strategies [5] - There is a growing interest in traditional manufacturing and safe-haven assets, indicating potential long-term investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plan to improve the management of funds raised by domestic companies for overseas listings, emphasizing that funds from overseas listings should generally be returned to the domestic market [2] - The Chinese government is encouraging foreign financial institutions, including Citigroup and Carlyle Group, to invest in China's capital market and deepen cooperation [3][4] - The actual use of foreign capital in China decreased by 10.9% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, with significant increases in investments from Japan, Switzerland, and the UK [4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.24% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.09% [6] - Major brokerages are optimistic about the A-share market's performance in the second half of the year, with technology and domestic consumption sectors being core investment directions [6] - Miniso reported a total revenue of 4.43 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with overseas revenue growing by 30% [7] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the IPO registration of Shandong Electric Power on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has agreed to the registration of aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [24] - The first batch of 26 new floating rate funds has been registered with the CSRC and is expected to be offered to investors soon [10]

Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is expected to be around 5.2%, with the first half of the year projected at approximately 5.3%[2] - Monthly GDP growth rates for April and May are estimated at 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively, aligning with demand-side predictions[2] Export and Trade Dynamics - Exports are anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 3%-5% in Q2, driven by "grabbing exports" and "grabbing trans-exports" despite high base effects[2][23] - The easing of trade frictions is expected to enhance export performance, making the real economic fundamentals more noteworthy in Q2[4] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail sales growth for the first four months of the year is at 4.7%, with "trade-in" consumption categories showing a 7.2% increase, contributing approximately 1.1 percentage points to overall retail growth[5] - The impact of "trade-in" policies is projected to support retail sales growth at around 4.5%-5% in Q2, with final consumption growth estimated at about 4.3%[20] Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate sales are facing downward pressure as the effects of the 924 policy diminish, with a 1-4 month cumulative decline in new housing sales area of -2.8% compared to -17.1% in the previous year[14] - The second-hand housing market showed a significant increase of 21.1% in transaction area from October 2024 to March 2025, but recent data indicates a cooling trend[14] Investment and Policy Implications - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize around 4%, supported by equipment updates and infrastructure projects, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment showing year-on-year increases of 8.8% and 10.9% respectively[23] - The overall economic stability in the first half of the year provides ample room for policy responses to external uncertainties, with sufficient flexibility for incremental policy adjustments in Q3[2][20]

Core Viewpoint - The tire industry in China is experiencing moderate growth in 2024, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.7% but a profit decline of 8.5%, indicating a disparity in economic performance among companies [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall performance of the tire industry is characterized by a significant divergence, with leading companies achieving substantial profit growth while many others face declining profits [4] - Major companies like Linglong Tire, Sailun Tire, and Senqilin have reported impressive profit increases of 26.01%, 31.42%, and 59.74% respectively, while Triangle Tire experienced a profit drop of 21.03% due to rising raw material costs and inventory issues [2][4] - The prices of natural and synthetic rubber have risen significantly, impacting the industry's fundamentals, with natural rubber prices reaching a seven-year high earlier in the year [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The automotive sector's growth has slowed, affecting tire demand, with a 2.7% increase in steel radial tire production in the first half of 2024, followed by a 3.2% decline in the second half [3] - The production of semi-steel tires has remained positive, with a 22% increase in the first half and a 15% increase in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Export and International Market - China's tire exports have shown growth, with a 4.9% increase in weight, a 10.5% increase in quantity, and a 5.5% increase in export value in 2024 [5] - Chinese tires are increasingly replacing foreign brands in the European and American markets due to competitive pricing, with significant demand growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The tire industry is expected to enter a phase of capacity reduction due to ongoing cost pressures and trade frictions, with raw material prices likely to fluctuate but not significantly increase [7] - The demand for tires is anticipated to be bolstered by the growth of the electric vehicle market, with production and sales of new energy vehicles expected to rise by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [7] - Trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. and Mexico, pose significant risks to the industry, prompting companies to enhance their overseas operations to mitigate these challenges [8]