Group 1: Market Overview - On February 3, 2026, SHFE silver futures closed at 21,446 CNY/kg, down 16.71% from the previous day[1] - The premium of SHFE silver futures over LME silver decreased from 29.8% at the end of January to 7.46% by February 3[1] - SHFE silver futures rose by 5.93% in the night session on February 4, closing at 22,393 CNY/kg[1] Group 2: Precious Metals Insights - The long-term narrative for precious metals remains unchanged, with expectations of continued support for gold prices due to "de-dollarization" and loose fiscal and monetary policies[3] - The volatility of silver futures remains high, with implied volatility reaching 148% on February 2 and remaining above 100% on February 3, compared to an average of 27% in 2025[5] - Gold futures implied volatility was close to 40% as of February 3, significantly higher than the 19% average for 2025[5] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The liquidity shock has ended, as indicated by the opening of the silver futures limit down on February 3, suggesting a stabilization in market risks[5] - The commodity market is expected to return to fundamental pricing logic for certain products that were "wronged" during the liquidity crisis[5] - The core logic of the commodity market remains intact despite the liquidity shock, with solid fundamentals for certain commodities still offering investment value[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Analysis - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from new economic demands driven by AI and green energy, despite recent price adjustments[6] - The chemical sector is experiencing a structural demand shift, with emerging industries driving growth, indicating potential for continued market improvement in 2026[6] - New energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, are projected to achieve supply-demand balance, presenting bullish investment opportunities[6]

| | | | | | | | | 白金 主要 主要 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/04 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 F03117750 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | 400 | | | (元/吨) ...

Group 1: Involution Competition - The current "involution" competition is driven by weak demand and homogeneous expansion, leading to intensified competition in the stock market[6] - Involution competition directly lowers prices and squeezes corporate profit margins, while indirectly suppressing consumption and innovation[6] - The phenomenon of "low-price competition" leads to a negative feedback loop of "degraded consumption" and "no consumption, further price cuts"[27] Group 2: Reasonable Profit Margin - A reasonable profit margin serves as a policy anchor to prevent "dumping" and "monopoly" behaviors, achieving a dynamic balance between competition and efficiency[6] - Maintaining a reasonable profit margin is crucial for long-term macroeconomic growth and serves as a microeconomic driving force[38] - The vision of using profit margins as an anchor includes ensuring profits for enterprises, income for residents, tax revenue for governments, and returns for shareholders[51] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Short-term solutions require administrative coordination to break local protectionism and industry barriers, while "anti-involution" efforts must continue[6] - Long-term strategies should focus on addressing the microeconomic drivers behind macroeconomic issues, with profit margins as a core target for high-quality development[46] - Proposed measures include incorporating "factor flow convenience" into local assessments and establishing a "wage-profit linkage" mechanism in financial disclosures[44]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown significant performance, with a continuous inflow of capital and a record high in size, driven by strong performance in the refrigerant sector, particularly from leading companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The petrochemical ETF (159731) experienced a 0.2% increase as of 10:35 AM, with leading stocks such as Three Trees, Sinopec, and Shanghai Petrochemical driving the gains [1] - The ETF has attracted a total of 1.457 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, reaching a total size of 1.707 billion yuan, marking a new high [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Sector Outlook - Juhua Co., the largest refrigerant producer in China, has forecasted a net profit of 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80% to 101% [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the issuance of HFCs quotas for 2026, combined with strict global supply constraints, is expected to optimize the industry landscape and increase refrigerant prices and margins over the long term [1] - The refrigerant sector is evolving towards a "necessity consumer product" attribute, supported by its functional formulation and special operational model [1] Group 3: ETF Composition and Policy Impact - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which includes various sub-industries such as refining, polyurethane, potash fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and fluorochemical [1] - The ETF is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses macroeconomic trends and asset allocation outlook for 2026, focusing on both domestic and overseas markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. Market Review - Global markets showed an overall increase in January, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets [6][15] - Major commodities experienced significant price fluctuations, particularly metals, which saw a sharp correction at the end of the month [6][15] - Domestic asset performance was mixed, with equities showing high volatility, interest rates declining, and commodities performing strongly [10][15] 2. Domestic Macro Insights - Economic indicators suggest a stable start to the year, with PPI declines expected to narrow due to various factors including rising metal prices [20][22] - Credit demand in Q1 is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on the performance of new home sales post-Spring Festival [23][25] - The central bank has implemented structural interest rate cuts and indicated potential for further easing, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [26][28] - Fiscal policies are becoming more proactive, with various support measures for small and medium enterprises and consumer loans [29][33] 3. Overseas Macro Insights - The U.S. economy may have reached a bottom, as indicated by recent employment data showing a rebound in non-farm payrolls [39][41] - Tariff policies under the Trump administration are shifting towards more aggressive measures, with potential implications for international trade [42][45] - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair raises questions about future monetary policy direction, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments [49][51] 4. Asset Allocation Outlook - A-shares are viewed as having reasonable valuation levels, with a slight preference for growth stocks in the upcoming quarter due to seasonal effects [56][66] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well in the medium term, supported by domestic economic stabilization and potential foreign capital inflows [67][69] - Interest rates are likely to remain in a range-bound state, with limited upside potential [70][72] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to stay elevated due to ongoing fiscal pressures, despite recent rate cuts by the Fed [73][75] - The AI sector is identified as a key driver for U.S. stock performance, with implications for technology investments [76][78] 5. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to experience increased volatility due to geopolitical factors, although overall supply may remain excessive [81][83] - Copper prices are projected to remain strong amid tight supply conditions, while gold is anticipated to see short-term fluctuations [84][89] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring credit demand and fiscal policy developments as indicators of economic health [23][29] - The potential impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade dynamics and market sentiment was emphasized [42][45] - The discussion on the structural changes in the U.S. economy and their implications for monetary policy and asset allocation strategies was noted as critical for investors [51][52]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 欧美股市集体收跌 观点分享： 欧美股市集体收跌，纳指跌超 1%，大型科技股领跌。周二（2 月 3 日）欧美股市集体 收跌，标普 500 指数跌近 1%，纳指跌超 1%。科技股普跌，美光科技跌超 4%，微软、英伟 达跌近 3%。黄金股表现强劲，盎格鲁黄金涨超 6%，泛美白银涨逾 5%。沃尔玛涨近 3%， 市值突破 1 万亿美元。市场对美联储货币政策不确定性加剧，叠加地缘紧张局势，压制市场 风险偏好，科技股承压明显。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 化工 ★★★★ | | 化工：当前化工板块主要矛盾有两方面：（1）关注反内卷带来的全行业利润修复预期，在 1 | | 月整体化工板块涨幅中，反内卷预期带来的利润修复是主要矛盾，目前芳烃板块已经大幅盈 | | 利，而烯烃板块涨幅相对偏小，部分品种如聚丙烯仍处于亏损状态；（2）伊朗带来的地缘溢 | | 价，伊朗主要影响整体化工的成本支撑，以及相关品种甲醇、LPG、乙二醇、塑料和尿素。 | ...

日报公司 供需存改善预期,多晶硅价格有所修复 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 今日多最硅价格大幅回升。根据万得数据，多品硅主力合约上涨超8%，重回50000元/吨，此前在反垄断担忧影响下，多磊硅反内卷"预明出现动摇，叠加近明美元指数走强、风险资产普遍 间间，多磊疏价格阶段性承压。今日市场债等有所缓和，且多晶硅供需存在边际改善迹象。一方面，根固硅业分会消息，头部企业主动停产以消化库存，供应端压力得到进一步缓解；另一方 面,部分硅料企业重新展现挺价意愿,现货价格对盘面形成一定支撑。 基本面情况 王雨欣 从业资格号:F03108000 投资咨询号:Z0021453 桂 伶 从业资格号:F03114737 投资咨询号:Z0022425 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 从基本面来看，供应端方面，1月多磊硅供应进一步回落。根据驻业分会消息，当前头部企业已全面停产，部分企业办存在不同程度减产计划。从排产来看，硅业分会预计2月多最品产量进 -5下滑至8.2-8.5万吨，供应收缩力度持续加大。 需求碳方面，多最硅生产与同期硅片企业排产规模基本匹配，市场累库速度有 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian electric vehicle (EV) market has shown significant changes, with sales and penetration rates of Chinese EV brands in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand exceeding expectations due to price reductions in 2025 [5][6]. - GWM's net profit for 2025 is reported at 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, attributed to various factors including policy changes in Russia and increased operational costs [7]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for Chinese EV exports in 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and product iterations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market Analysis - The Southeast Asian EV market has improved significantly, with Chinese brands gaining market share due to competitive pricing strategies [5]. - The market is expected to see continued growth as local support policies evolve, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and increased pricing power for Chinese brands [5][6]. - Major Chinese EV manufacturers are expanding their presence in Southeast Asia, launching new models to enhance their product offerings [6]. GWM Performance Overview - GWM's net profit for 2025 is projected at 9.9 billion yuan, down 22% from the previous year, primarily due to increased costs and operational challenges [7]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 1.8 million vehicles in 2026, with significant contributions expected from new models and international markets [7]. - The introduction of new vehicles is anticipated to drive sales growth and improve profit margins, positioning GWM for a potential valuation increase [7].

Report Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is weak and volatile, with the demand for thread steel decreasing and the inventory accumulating, while the demand and production of hot-rolled steel are increasing slightly and the inventory is decreasing. The profit of steel mills is poor, the downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and the iron water production is stable. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the steel export remains high. The rebound of non-ferrous and precious metals has improved the commodity sentiment, but the weak demand restricts the rebound space of the market [1]. - The iron ore market is weak, with the global shipping volume increasing but lower than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume decreasing slightly. The port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly, and there is still some structural support in the short term. The terminal demand is in a low-level shock, the steel mill's profitability has declined, and the iron water production is stable at a low level. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased, and the replenishment demand continues to be released. The overall supply and demand of iron ore are expected to improve marginally, but the decline in the risk preference of the commodity market puts pressure on the market [2]. - The coke market is mainly in a shock state, with the coking profit being average and the daily output slightly decreasing. The coke inventory has increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders may improve after the first price increase. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron water is at the off-season level, the steel profit level is average, and the pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the "anti-involution" policy. Driven by coking coal, the coke price is unlikely to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. - The coking coal market is mainly in a shock state, with the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume being 873 vehicles yesterday. The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions have gradually declined, and the transaction price has mainly increased driven by the increase in the market price. The terminal inventory has increased significantly, and the total inventory of coking coal has increased significantly, with the production end inventory slightly decreasing. The winter storage demand is gradually coming to an end. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron water is at the off-season level, the steel profit level is average, and the pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the "anti-involution" policy. The seasonal decline of Mongolian coal customs clearance data is still not obvious, but under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the coking coal price is unlikely to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate within a range [5]. - The silicomanganese market has corrected, with the spot manganese ore transaction price slightly decreasing, the market entering the non-arbitrage space, and the downward space being relatively small. The market is waiting for the steel tender. The manganese ore port inventory may start to accumulate slowly, the mine end shipping has increased month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price reduction space may be relatively limited. The iron water production is at the seasonal low level, the weekly output of silicomanganese has increased slightly, and it is difficult to see a significant decline driver. The silicomanganese inventory has increased slightly, and the price is affected by the over-supply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" issue [6]. - The ferrosilicon market has corrected, with the tender price of a large steel mill in the north in February being 5,760 yuan/ton for acceptance and delivery, which is the same as last month. The power cost in some production areas has indeed decreased, the semi-coke price has decreased slightly, and the main production areas are still mainly in a loss state. The iron water production is at the off-season level, the export demand remains above 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The metal magnesium production has continued to increase month-on-month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, and the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has not changed much, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the price is affected by the over-supply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" issue [7]. Summary by Category Steel - The thread steel market is in a weak shock state, with the off-season demand decreasing, the production stabilizing in the short term, and the inventory continuing to accumulate. The hot-rolled steel market has a slight increase in demand and production, and the inventory continues to decline, with the pressure gradually easing. The steel mill's profit is poor, the downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, the blast furnace复产 slows down, and the iron water production stabilizes. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the steel export remains high. The rebound of non-ferrous and precious metals has improved the commodity sentiment, but the weak demand restricts the rebound space of the market, and there may still be fluctuations in the short term [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is weak, with the global shipping volume increasing but lower than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume decreasing slightly. The port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly, and there is still some structural support in the short term. The terminal demand is in a low-level shock, the steel mill's profitability has declined, and the iron water production is stable at a low level. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased, and the replenishment demand continues to be released. The overall supply and demand of iron ore are expected to improve marginally, but the decline in the risk preference of the commodity market puts pressure on the market [2]. Coke - The coke market is mainly in a shock state, with the coking profit being average and the daily output slightly decreasing. The coke inventory has increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders may improve after the first price increase. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron water is at the off-season level, the steel profit level is average, and the pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the "anti-involution" policy. Driven by coking coal, the coke price is unlikely to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. Coking Coal - The coking coal market is mainly in a shock state, with the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume being 873 vehicles yesterday. The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions have gradually declined, and the transaction price has mainly increased driven by the increase in the market price. The terminal inventory has increased significantly, and the total inventory of coking coal has increased significantly, with the production end inventory slightly decreasing. The winter storage demand is gradually coming to an end. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron water is at the off-season level, the steel profit level is average, and the pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the "anti-involution" policy. The seasonal decline of Mongolian coal customs clearance data is still not obvious, but under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the coking coal price is unlikely to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate within a range [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese market has corrected, with the spot manganese ore transaction price slightly decreasing, the market entering the non-arbitrage space, and the downward space being relatively small. The market is waiting for the steel tender. The manganese ore port inventory may start to accumulate slowly, the mine end shipping has increased month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price reduction space may be relatively limited. The iron water production is at the seasonal low level, the weekly output of silicomanganese has increased slightly, and it is difficult to see a significant decline driver. The silicomanganese inventory has increased slightly, and the price is affected by the over-supply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" issue [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market has corrected, with the tender price of a large steel mill in the north in February being 5,760 yuan/ton for acceptance and delivery, which is the same as last month. The power cost in some production areas has indeed decreased, the semi-coke price has decreased slightly, and the main production areas are still mainly in a loss state. The iron water production is at the off-season level, the export demand remains above 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The metal magnesium production has continued to increase month-on-month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, and the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has not changed much, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the price is affected by the over-supply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" issue [7].