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新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-9)-20250509
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 01:57
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Rebound [6] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Oscillation [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] - Plastics: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [11] - PVC: Oscillating weakly [11] Core Views - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short term but bearish in the medium to long term due to potential steel mill production cuts and trade frictions [2] - The coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an unchanged pattern of oversupply in coke [2] - The rebar market is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high production, potential export impacts, and seasonal demand decline [2] - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real estate industry remains in an adjustment period [2] - The stock index market is expected to rebound as the external market stabilizes and risk aversion eases [4] - The Treasury bond market is expected to rise as the central bank maintains reasonable liquidity [4] - The precious metal market is expected to oscillate at a high level, with gold prices influenced by interest rate and tariff policies [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand and reduced cost support [6] - The log market is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, with potential marginal improvement in demand [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term due to ample supply and seasonal demand decline [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate bearishly as soybean supply increases and demand weakens after the holiday [6] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and uncertain demand [9] - The chemical product market shows various trends, with prices mainly influenced by supply and demand, raw material prices, and macro factors [9][11] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose and then fell. Global iron ore shipments may increase seasonally in the coming weeks. Steel mill profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering a seasonal off - season, which may lead to steel mill production cuts and be bearish for iron ore in the medium to long term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply growth is limited, but the overall supply pressure remains high. Steel spot trading is poor due to tariff policies, and market confidence is low. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and coal and coke prices mainly follow the trend of finished steel products [2] - **Rebar**: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Steel mill profits are good, and supply pressure is increasing. There are doubts about external demand and domestic demand in May. The market inventory is low, which supports the price, but overall, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has slightly fluctuated. Coal prices have fallen, improving profits. Factory inventories have slightly decreased, but there are regional differences. Overall, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2] Financial and Precious Metal Industry - **Stock index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. Aerospace and military industry, and communication equipment sectors had capital inflows. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk aversion, stock index futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Treasury bond**: Yields of Treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity. The market is expected to maintain reasonable liquidity, and Treasury bond futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry and Oil and Fat Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is strong, but the decline in external market prices weakens cost support. Paper mills' profitability is low, and demand is poor, so the pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: Log demand has declined after a peak, but supply pressure has decreased due to reduced arrivals. Spot prices are stable, and the price is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate [6] - **Oil and fat**: Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is in a seasonal growth period, and soybean production in South America is abundant. Supply is ample, while demand is in a seasonal off - season. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term [6] - **Meal**: U.S. soybean planting conditions may improve, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and meal supply is expected to increase while demand weakens after the holiday, so the meal price is expected to oscillate bearishly [6] Soft Commodity and Chemical Industry - **Rubber**: Supply is expected to increase as the main producing areas start the tapping season. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is still relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PX**: Affected by demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices are oscillating at a low level. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [9] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and PTA supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. However, due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, the price fluctuates widely [9] - **Plastics and related products**: Different plastic products have different supply - demand situations and cost factors. Overall, prices are affected by supply, demand, raw material prices, and macro - sentiment [9][11]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250509
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 01:53
期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指: | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债: | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢: | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦: | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜: | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝: | 不建议追空 | | ◆镍: | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡: | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金: | 待价格充分回调后,逢低建仓 | | ◆白银: | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆纯碱: | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆橡胶: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆尿素: | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇: | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料: | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆苹果: | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA: | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋: | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米: | 震荡偏强 | | ◆ ...
上声电子20250508
2025-05-08 15:31
Summary of the Conference Call for 上声电子 Company Overview - **Company**: 上声电子 - **Industry**: Automotive Electronics Key Financial Performance - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: Exceeded 600 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6% [2][3] - **2024 Revenue**: 2.776 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.32% [3] - **2024 Net Profit**: 235 million, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% [3] - **2025 Revenue Target**: Exceed 3 billion [4] Product Performance - **Product Lines**: Significant growth in amplifiers and AVAS automotive electronic products, both exceeding 40% growth [2][3] - **Speaker Sales**: Expected to reach approximately 90 million units in 2024, with domestic market growth being the fastest [2][11] - **Amplifier Sales**: Targeting 750,000 to 850,000 units in 2024, aiming for 1 million units in 2025 [2][12] Market Dynamics - **Domestic vs. Overseas Market**: Domestic market remains the main revenue source, with overseas market revenue accounting for about 30%, showing a declining trend [2][5] - **Impact of US-China Trade Tensions**: Trade tensions have affected operations, but customer orders remain intact. The company is negotiating solutions such as transshipment trade or production in Mexico [5][7] Operational Insights - **Czech and Mexico Operations**: Revenue growth in Czech and Mexico, but gross margins have declined. The Mexico plant is stabilizing, with ongoing efforts to improve profitability [2][6][8] - **Hefei Plant**: Total investment over 500 million, with significant depreciation impacts. The goal for 2025 is to achieve breakeven [4][15][16] Gross Margin and Cost Management - **Gross Margin Expectations**: 2024 speaker gross margin expected to decrease by 3%, while amplifier gross margin is projected to increase by 9% [2][10] - **Cost Control Measures**: The company plans to reduce losses through cost-cutting and efficiency improvements [13] Future Outlook - **2025 Growth Strategy**: Focus on innovation, including AI amplifiers and digital speakers to enhance market demand and gross margins [31] - **New Client Projects**: Anticipated production of consumer audio products in the second half of 2025, with potential new automotive projects [32] Challenges and Risks - **Competitive Pressure**: The automotive industry is highly competitive, leading to pricing pressures, especially in low-end products [29][33] - **Material Costs**: Rising raw material prices, particularly for rare earth materials, are expected to impact gross margins [45] Global Expansion Plans - **Production Shift to Mexico**: Plans to transfer some production to Mexico by 2026, including new assembly lines for low-frequency and high-frequency speakers [41] - **Market Development**: Focus on expanding client relationships in Europe and Mexico, targeting major automotive brands [44] Additional Insights - **Software Development**: The company has a robust software team focused on various algorithms to enhance audio experiences [40] - **Acoustic Configuration Trends**: Both new and traditional automotive companies are enhancing their acoustic configurations, indicating a shift towards higher quality sound systems [36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, operational insights, and future strategies.
弘则出口企业四月调研反馈,关税影响下的出口企业现状如何?
2025-05-08 15:31
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the impact of U.S. punitive tariffs on Chinese export enterprises, particularly in April 2025, highlighting significant declines in exports to the U.S. and the resulting strategies adopted by Chinese companies to cope with the new trade environment [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Exports**: - Following the implementation of U.S. tariffs in April 2025, there was a substantial drop in Chinese exports to the U.S., with many companies halting shipments or returning goods [1][2][4]. - Specific industries such as zippers, power tools, and automotive parts were notably affected, with some companies reporting order reductions of up to 50% [2][4]. 2. **Response Strategies by Chinese Companies**: - Companies adopted various strategies, including stockpiling goods, adjusting export destinations, and relocating production overseas [1][3][19]. - High-value, low-cost products continued to be exported despite tariffs, as importers could still absorb the costs [8][19]. 3. **Inflationary Effects in the U.S.**: - The tariffs have significantly contributed to rising inflation in the U.S., with most imported products facing additional tariffs of 15%-20%, leading to increases in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) [10][27]. 4. **Market Diversification**: - Companies are gradually reducing reliance on the U.S. market, shifting focus to Europe and emerging markets, and adjusting product pricing accordingly [3][14][19]. 5. **E-commerce Resilience**: - The Chinese cross-border e-commerce sector has shown resilience, with online sales less affected by tariffs compared to offline channels, as companies utilize overseas warehouses to manage inventory [28][29]. 6. **Challenges in Supply Chain Transition**: - Transitioning supply chains to Southeast Asia presents challenges, including increased costs and production inefficiencies, as well as stricter origin certification requirements [15][16][45]. 7. **Future Trade Dynamics**: - There are indications of potential easing of tariffs, with discussions around possibly lowering average tariffs on Chinese imports [11]. - The overall economic outlook remains pessimistic, with expectations of negative impacts on both the U.S. and global economies due to the tariffs [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Order Trends**: Despite the challenges, about 61%-62% of surveyed companies reported stable or increasing orders from non-U.S. markets, indicating some resilience in global demand [26]. - **Emerging Market Opportunities**: There are growth opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in infrastructure-related sectors, as demand for construction equipment rises [22]. - **Logistics and Shipping**: The logistics sector faces significant risks due to halted trade routes, necessitating new solutions and adjustments in supply chain strategies [33][34]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese export industry in light of U.S. tariffs and the strategies being employed to navigate these challenges.
中美官宣会谈后,美方对欧洲的态度180度转弯,幸亏中国早有准备
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 11:07
从"威胁"到"真朋友",美国总统对欧态度三个月内大翻转!就在5月7号,美国副总统万斯在慕尼黑会议上,一改此前指责欧盟内部威胁的强硬立场,突然高 呼欧盟重要,这个一百八十度大转弯,让国际观察家们意外。 同一天,中国宣布将派代表团前往瑞士,与美国财长贝森特进行会谈,这两场国际互动同日登场,中国外交部发言人林剑强调:这次会谈是应美方要求举 行,中方对于关税问题的立场没有任何变化,美方态度为什么180度转弯?中国对此又有怎样的准备? 总统"变脸"欧洲 之前美国副总统万斯声称欧洲内部的威胁比中国或俄罗斯大得多,还对欧盟的移民政策横加指责,话说得那叫一个难听,惹得欧洲多国政界公开表达不满, 斥他目中无人。 文/珠玑说 (本文所有内容皆有官方可靠信源,具体资料赘述文章结尾) 谁能想到,当初的"威胁"竟成了"真朋友"?这出人意料的变脸,无疑给观察家们添了不少琢磨的余地,也就在万斯向欧洲大送秋波的同一天,另一场大国间 的互动也拉开了帷幕。 面对这场会面,中方态度一贯清晰且审慎,外交部发言人林剑明明白白地说了,这次会谈是应美国邀请,而且在核心的关税问题上,中国的立场一点没松 动,看来,北京这边,对美国的套路门儿清。 果不其然,大 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-8)-20250508
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 02:29
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium to long-term bearish, suggesting shorting the 09 contract on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral [2] - Glass: Bearish with a neutral bias [2] - CSI 300 Index: Neutral [4] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 500 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Bullish [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Bullish [4] - Gold: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Silver: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Pulp: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Logs: Neutral [5] - Soybean oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Palm oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Soybean meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Neutral [7] - Rubber: Neutral [7] - PX: Neutral [7] - PTA: Suggest shorting processing spreads [7] - MEG: Hold and observe [7] - PR: Hold and observe [8] - PF: Hold and observe [8] - Plastics: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PP: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PVC: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The global iron ore shipment may increase seasonally in the coming weeks, while steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The 09 iron ore contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - The supply pressure of rebar continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - The glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] - The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market [4] - The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - The supply of pulp is sufficient, and the demand side performs poorly, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply pressure of logs decreases, and the demand is expected to improve marginally, with the price expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] - The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation", with the price expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - PX price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [7] - PTA supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - The polyester bottle chip market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - The polyester staple fiber market will continue to be in a game state, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - The supply and demand of plastics are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly [8] - The supply pressure of PP decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly [8] - The PVC supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The global shipment may increase seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The short-term reality is strong, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate at the current position. In the medium and long term, the 09 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. The second round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the overall inventory has increased. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - Rebar: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The supply pressure continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - Glass: Some production lines have resumed production, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The profit has improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the external market stabilizes. The stock index bulls can hold [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the market liquidity is at a reasonable level. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, and the bulls can hold [4] Precious Metals - Gold: The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the tariff policy evolution dominates the market risk aversion sentiment [4] - Silver: The inflation data slows down, and the Fed does not cut interest rates as expected. The short-term price is affected by the Fed's policy and trade negotiations, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price is strong, but the cost price decline weakens the support for the pulp price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand side performs poorly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Logs: The port shipment volume increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The spot market price is weak, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season. The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia increases seasonally, and the demand for biodiesel weakens. The supply of domestic soybeans increases, and the inventory is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Meals: The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation". The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemicals - PX: The oil price fluctuates at a low level, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [7] - PTA: The raw material price fluctuates repeatedly, and the processing spread is at a certain level. The supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG: The supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - PR: The raw material support is weak, but there is certain support from the peak consumption season. The market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - PF: The demand expectation is weak, and the oil price falls. The PTA supply shrinks, and the market will continue to be in a game state. The price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - Plastics: The supply and demand are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly. The cost end is affected by factors such as oil prices, and the supply side has new device production expectations [8] - PP: The supply pressure decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly. The cost end is affected by multiple factors, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [8] - PVC: The supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost end is stable, the inventory is destocked, and the spot transaction is average [8]
仲量联行:香港楼市前景仍然未明 预期发展商吸纳地皮仍会较审慎
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 11:01
仲量联行项目策略及顾问部资深董事李远峰表示:中美贸易摩擦升温与关税争端持续发酵,为香港经济 前景蒙上阴影,楼市不确定性加剧下,买家避险心态上升。面对潜在利率波动与宏观经济不稳,准买家 普遍采取防守策略:或推迟入市计划,或转投面积细小、入场门槛较低的单位,甚至刻意买细一个码以 对冲潜在贬值风险。加上,政府大幅减少针对400万港元以下物业的印花税,令细价物业成为跌市中风 险较低的选择。对发展商而言,现时市况疲弱,细价物业可以针对更广泛的客户群,销售较有保证,预 期短期至中期而言,发展商仍会较倾向兴建细单位。 楼市踏入下行周期前,内地及本地各类型发展商均积极吸纳地皮,形成百家争鸣的情况。然而,过去三 年楼价下滑,普遍发展商的投地意欲不大。大型发展商则尚有不少土地储备,造就2025-2026年间, 60%的新盘单位来自新地(00016)、长实(01113)及恒地(00012)三大发展商,较2023-2024年不足40%的比 例显著提升。 仲量联行研究部资深董事钟楚如指出:现时新盘货尾仍不乏其他发展商所发展的新盘项目,待货尾逐步 消化后,主要供应量来自三大发展商的形势将更明显,中期而言,将有助发展商调节推盘节奏,令主要 ...
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250507
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 02:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke futures contracts 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to weak". The overall view is a sideways trading approach [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: The price of coking coal has been continuously declining, and it is expected to maintain a weak sideways movement after the holiday [5]. - **Supply**: As of the week ending May 2, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 80.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons, with positive growth for 6 consecutive weeks and 5.7 million tons higher than the same period last year. In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and Shanxi's coal production remained high. Although the import volume decreased slightly year - on - year, the reduction was expected to be limited, so the supply pressure remained high [5]. - **Demand**: In the week ending May 2, the total daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons. Due to Sino - US trade frictions and the sluggish performance of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, the long - term demand for coking coal is still a concern [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The main futures contract of coke maintains a low - level sideways movement, with intense multi - empty game [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Compared with coking coal, the short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable. Although the molten iron output remains high and the short - term demand is okay, affected by overseas risks and cost pressure from coking coal, the market sentiment is not optimistic [6]. - **Macro Factors**: Since April, Sino - US trade frictions have been反复, and there is strong uncertainty about future tariff disputes. At the same time, domestic demand - boosting policies are expected to be introduced, such as the Politburo meeting on April 25 proposing more active macro - policies [6].
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-7)-20250507
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 02:03
交易提示 交易咨询:0571-85165192,85058093 2025 年 5 月 7 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-7) | | | | 周,全球铁矿发运或季节性回升,钢厂高炉复产带动铁水产量维持高位, | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁矿:今日一揽子金融政策支持稳市场预期,黑色夜盘受到支撑。未来几 | | | | | 全国日均铁水产量 245.42 万吨,环比增 1.07 万吨。按目前铁水走势看,5 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 月份将是钢材产量的峰值,同时钢材出口受关税扰动风险上升,国内需求 | | | | | 步入季节性淡季,钢厂销售压力加剧或导致利润收缩,自发性减产还是被 | | | | | 动减产,其减产的总量都对原料端形成利空。短期铁矿基本面矛盾不突出, | | | | | 盘面反弹态势,中长期来看,考虑到钢厂限产,铁水或见顶回落以及中美 | | | | | 贸易摩擦延续,铁矿 09 合约逢高试空,关注政策落地情况。 | | | | | 煤焦:进口方面,蒙古口岸通关量维持低位,叠加竞拍市场持续低迷,蒙 | | | 煤焦 ...
A股流动性与风格跟踪月报:融资资金有望回流,小盘成长风格回归-20250506
CMS· 2025-05-06 13:31
证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 5 月 6 日 融资资金有望回流,小盘成长风格回归 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报(202505) 进入 5 月后, A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束, 市场风格的季节性效应弱化,综合 A 股盈利增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和 概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境友好、以及融资资金可能逐渐回流,我们认为 A 股风格有望向小盘成长风格漂移。 ❑风格展望:小盘成长风格有望回归。进入 5 月后, A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、 业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束,市场风格的季节性效应弱化,综合 A 股盈利 增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境、以及 A 股增 量资金结构变化,我们认为 A 股风格有望逐渐向小盘成长风格漂移。具体来说, 第一,2025 年一季度 A 股上市公司非金融石化企业净利润增速回升转正,从历史 来看,这比较有利于短期小盘成长风格表现。第二,目前中美双方就关税问题处 于僵持局面,但贸易摩擦最悲观的阶段已经过去,随着时间推移,中美开始磋商 的概率增大,不确定性风险会逐渐下降。第三,非农数据公布后,市场开始预期 6 月美联 ...