中银证券 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025年7月4日 助力"中枢"抬升 策略点评报告 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300519060003 证券分析师:徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu(a)bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300521070003 ■ 本轮关于部分落后产能退出工作的信号,在7月1日中央财经委会议之 前已出现多种迹象。一是部分产品价格在 6月已出现企稳迹象,二是部 分部门、行业协会、龙头公司通过自律倡议等形式进行初步约束尝试。 ■ 但相关行业股价表现较为平淡,直至7月1日中央财经委召开第六次会 议. 会议强调. "纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,要聚焦重点难点,依 法依规治理企业低价无序竞争,引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能 有序退出。" 我们认为,这正式标志对于部分落后产能的退出安排。由行业自律层面 . 上调至最高层级。 这种政策层面释放的信号值得高度关注,但从对相关行业的展望来看, 我们认为本轮行业切换或更多呈现"行情脉冲性"以及细分行业或将 "显著分化"两个特点。 本轮"推动落后产能有序 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guide companies to improve product quality, and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This policy signal has led to a noticeable recovery in the sentiment of the bulk commodity market, with some investors anticipating market benefits similar to those from the supply-side structural reforms of 2016 [3][4]. Policy Impact Analysis - Different periods may have varying policy focuses, necessitating an in-depth analysis of the core impact range of policies. Attention should be directed towards industries with severe overcapacity, widespread losses, high proportions of outdated capacity, and strong policy constraints [4]. - Industries such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and PVC currently exhibit persistently low profit levels, aligning with the main objectives of policy regulation. The sustainability of profit improvement in these industries hinges on the enforcement strength of policies and the effectiveness of actual capacity clearance [4][5]. Historical Context - The aluminum industry serves as an example where strong policy constraints successfully led to sustained profit improvements during the last capacity reduction phase. Historical experience indicates that there is a certain lag between policy issuance and market rebound, ultimately relying on strict enforcement to achieve profit redistribution within the industry chain [4]. Current Industry Status - Leading companies in industries like polysilicon are beginning to formulate capacity optimization plans. However, due to differences in company nature, interest conflicts, and market constraints, the realization of substantial capacity clearance in the industry will require more time for validation [5]. Profit and Capacity Overview - A summary of key indicators for various bulk commodities, including profit levels, capacity concentration, and the nature of enterprises, has been compiled for reference [6]. - For example, the profit margins and capacity concentration for several commodities are as follows: - PVC: -13% profit margin, 40% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Polysilicon: -13.5% profit margin, 82.23% capacity concentration, private enterprises [10] - Urea: 20% profit margin, 28% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Copper products show varying profit margins, with electrolytic copper at 0.31% and lithium battery copper foil at 26.07% [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jinhua New Materials Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Jinhua New Materials") is set to undergo an IPO review on July 4 at the Beijing Stock Exchange, aiming to raise a total of 768 million yuan [2] Financial Performance - Jinhua New Materials' revenue is projected to grow from 994 million yuan in 2022 to 1.239 billion yuan in 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue at 282 million yuan, reflecting a 9.98% year-on-year decline [3][4] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to rise from 78.42 million yuan in 2022 to 206 million yuan in 2024, but Q1 2025 shows a 16.89% decline year-on-year [3][4] - Accounts receivable have increased alongside revenue, with the company's asset-liability ratio decreasing from 44.45% in 2022 to 36.26% in 2024, still above the industry average of 35.23% [4][6] Debt and Liquidity - Jinhua New Materials' liquidity ratios are below industry averages, with a current ratio rising from 1.57 in 2022 to 2.12 in 2024, but a net cash ratio of only 0.42 indicates weak cash flow coverage [4] - The company has faced scrutiny from the Beijing Stock Exchange regarding its debt indicators, which are lower than comparable companies, raising concerns about liquidity risk [4][6] Related Party Transactions - A significant portion of Jinhua New Materials' procurement is from its controlling shareholder, Juhua Group, with related party purchases accounting for 38.08% to 28.93% of total procurement from 2022 to 2024 [6][8] - The company has been questioned about selling prices to related parties being lower than those to non-related parties, with average prices for certain products being 1%-4% lower [8][9] Production Capacity and Market Conditions - Despite a declining market for its core product, silane crosslinking agents, which saw a price drop of 35.4% over three years, Jinhua New Materials plans to invest 507 million yuan to increase production capacity by 30,000 tons [3][10] - The company's production capacity utilization has decreased from 96.19% to 76.15% over the same period, raising questions about the feasibility of expanding capacity under current market conditions [10][11] Customer and Supplier Dynamics - The top five customers accounted for 46.41% to 50.13% of total revenue during the reporting period, with Juhua Group being a significant related party [6] - Jinhua New Materials has established business relationships with potential customers for new products, but the projected sales volume may not fully absorb the new production capacity [11][12]

倒计时7天 2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会 暨轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 活动主题： 换电之城 智慧两轮 主办单位： 起点锂电、起点钠电、起点两轮车及换电 活动时间： 2025年7月11日 活动地点： 深圳宝安登喜路国际酒店2楼国际厅 活动赞助/演讲/合作单位： 小哈换电/ 雅迪科技集团/台铃集团/新日股份/菜鸟集团/嘟嘟换电/司马出行/河豚换电/汇创新能源/中兴派能/孚能科技/保力新/创明新 能源/多氟多/博力威/睿恩新能源/诺达智慧/亿纬锂能/星恒电源/亮见钠电/比克电池/鹏辉能源/时代瑞象/优旦科技/逸飞激光/盾创科技/博观科技/尚闻科技/威胜 能源/兆科动力/小安科技/先导智能/鑫晟达/精锐精密等 7 月 1 日晚间，锂电行业首份上半年业绩预告出炉。 石大胜华在公告中称，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 亏损 5200 万元到 6000 万元 ，与上年同期相比，将减少 9005.72 万元到 9805.72 万元， 同比减少 236.64% 到 257.66% 。 资料显示， 自 2002 年成立以来，石大胜华围绕碳酸酯类产品，聚焦新能源、新材料领域，打造立体化完整产业链，纵向延 ...

Group 1 - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee, along with other departments, has identified a complex and severe natural disaster risk situation as China enters the main flood season in July [1] - The Ministry of Commerce is closely monitoring rainfall and flood conditions in southern China, ensuring sufficient supply of essential goods, with wholesale prices of staple foods remaining stable [1] - Egg prices have been declining since the beginning of the year, with a notable drop of over 40% compared to January, and a recent price of 2.49 yuan per jin in Handan, Hebei [1] Group 2 - The number of laying hens in China reached a historical high, with 13.34 billion hens recorded in May, and a projected increase to 13.4 billion in June, reflecting a 0.45% month-on-month growth [2] - Historical data indicates that when the number of laying hens approaches or exceeds 13.5 billion, the industry often faces significant losses, leading to a reduction in production capacity [2] - Past cycles show that the egg-laying industry has experienced substantial losses for 6-7 months before entering a price recovery phase [2] Group 3 - The outlook for egg prices in the second half of the year suggests continued supply pressure due to increasing laying hen numbers and seasonal price declines during the rainy season [3] - A potential rebound in egg prices may occur in August and September if there is a significant culling of hens driven by low prices and increased demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival [3] - The traditional peak consumption season may be affected if the expected culling does not materialize as anticipated [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jeka Robotics Co., Ltd. (referred to as Jeka) has updated its prospectus for an IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with its application still under inquiry after two years since submission [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.74 million yuan, -28.55 million yuan, and 6.23 million yuan for the respective reporting periods, with a non-recurring net profit of 44,000 yuan, -35.68 million yuan, and -2.28 million yuan [2][4] - As of December 31, 2024, the total assets amounted to 1.05 billion yuan, with total equity attributable to shareholders of 836.71 million yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 11.52% [3] - The company achieved an operating income of 400.43 million yuan in 2024, compared to 349.56 million yuan in 2023 and 280.78 million yuan in 2022 [3] Business Operations - Jeka's main business includes the research, development, production, and sales of collaborative robot products, as well as system integration services [1] - The gross profit margins for the main business segments were 47.19%, 45.28%, and 53.71% over the reporting periods, with the collaborative robot segment showing stable fluctuations [6] R&D and Sales Expenses - R&D expenses have been increasing, accounting for 21.53% of operating income in 2024, while sales expenses were higher, comprising 24.16% of operating income [10][11] - The company has acknowledged that high sales expenses have impacted short-term profitability but expects improvements as the sales team matures [9] Market and Production Capacity - Jeka plans to raise 700 million yuan through the IPO, with a portion allocated to a new production project for smart robots, which has been adjusted from an initial plan of 750 million yuan [7] - The company anticipates reaching an annual production capacity of 40,000 collaborative robots by 2030, amid concerns about market demand and capacity absorption [8]

据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与越南达成贸易协议，他在帖文中称，越南所有对美出口商品将面临至少20%关 税，并对美国"完全开放市场"。 这一税率远低于特朗普在4月初宣布的对越南46%的关税税率，不过，特朗普的声明中还提到，若商品来自第三国、经由越南中转 再出口至美国，将被征收40%的关税。 越南一直是中国钢铁产品的主要出口目的地。2024年，越南就是中国钢铁的第一大出口国。 "美国与越南达成贸易协议，转口贸易会受到更大的影响，"兰格钢铁研究中心副主任葛昕告诉第一财经记者，目前越南的多个产 业原材料主要依靠从中国进口，预计之后要进行产业升级，减少对初级产品的进口依赖。 过去几年，国内钢铁需求持续低迷，钢铁生产和钢贸流通企业经营举步维艰，相比之下，钢铁出口的形势相对较好，强劲的钢铁 出口在一定程度上抵消了国内市场的不利因素，不少钢厂的钢材出口量也在逐年增加。 根据中国钢铁工业协会的统计，2024年1-12月，我国累计出口钢材11071.6万吨，达历史第二高位，同比增长22.7%，相比2020年 更是增加106%。不过钢材出口量增价跌的趋势明显，出口区域也在逐渐调整，对欧美等区域出口下降，对亚非拉等区域出 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 硅铁市场周报 开工低位需求淡季，库存压制利润亏损 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「 期现市场情况」 持仓量增加4123手；月差环比增加28 图1、硅铁期货合约持仓量 来源：文华财经 瑞达期货研究院 图2、硅铁跨期价差走势图 4 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，本次高层多次强调反内卷，去除落后产能，宏观扰动增强，个人认为市场情绪外溢影响更明显；今年1-5月份，全 国粗钢产量4.32亿吨，同比下降1.7%。折合国内粗钢表观消费3.8亿吨，同比下降4%。行业减量发展、存量优化的特征愈发明 显。 2. 海外方面，美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征收20%关税，任何转运货物将被征收40%的关 税；美国"大漂亮"法案在众议院通过，3.4万亿赤字"重负"将至。 3. 供需方面，开工低位运行，钢 ...

「2025.07.04」 硅锰市场周报 央行例会提稳物价，关税仍存不确定性 瑞达期货研究院 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，中央财经委员会第六次会议强调引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，市场情绪大幅改善；中国钢铁工 业协会建议有关企业要着眼长远，理性看待并慎行钢坯出口；工信部召开第十五次制造业企业座谈会，强调依法依规、综合治 理光伏行业低价无序竞争。 2. 海外方面，美国总统特朗普表示，他并未考虑延长原定于7月9日结束的关税宽限期；美国财长贝森特表示，他相信中国将遵守 近日达成的协议，加快稀土矿物和磁体的出口速度。国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征收20% 关税，任何转运货物将被征收40%的关税 3. 供需方面，厂家开工率低位连续7周回升，库存整体仍偏高，成本端，本期原料端进口锰矿石港口库存+0.9万吨，下游铁水产 ...

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 反内卷拉台期价，双硅未有重大反转 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅下跌0.62%，本周工业硅在上周情绪回暖前提下，本周虽然上半周继续上行，但下半周开始逐 步回落主要原因来自于现货价格不断上行拉动期货价格上行，市场受到情绪驱动上涨后工业硅生产企业进行套保，从 而压低了价格，多晶硅方面本周上涨6.59%，本周受到光伏行业反内卷驱动，整体价格出现大幅拉升，一度超过现货价 格，但是后续由于市场情绪消退，基本面未有现象级改变，下半周逐步回落。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，从供应端来看，本期工业硅现货价格大幅上行，西南地区电价下调，大厂接下来存在开工预 期，进入7月，西南电价会进一步降低，伴随着现货价格上行，中小企业也有复产计划，但整体来说，由于反内卷会议 预计后续小厂开炉概率较低 ...