Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of game - playing, and the market is affected by tariff policies. The expected trend for both PE and PP today is oscillatory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production - increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and production pressure still exist. With neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to oscillate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new capacity launches and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI and an increase in OPEC production. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and the current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0). The overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 113, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.6%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory suggest an oscillatory trend for PP today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown various trends. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [17].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons on July 11, while the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, geopolitical disturbances, and the US proposing a 50% copper tariff, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall analysis of copper includes multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main player positions, with different indicators showing different trends [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Daily Summary - A table is provided to show the intermediate price, change, type, total quantity, and increase/decrease of copper in different places, but the specific data is not filled in [5]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, and on July 11, the copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons [2]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - The bonded warehouse inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fees - The processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025, and specific data for China's annual supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 are provided [19][21].

Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Non-manufacturing PMI for June stands at 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Comprehensive PMI output index for June is 50.7%, rising by 0.3 percentage points compared to May[7] Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.25% during the week[5] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 14,413.96 billion CNY, down by 452.78 billion CNY from the previous week[25] - Financial sector stocks showed strong performance, with a 1.86% increase, while the technology sector faced a decline of 1.28%[5] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 13,753 billion CNY this week, with a total of 65,522 billion CNY in reverse repos executed[12] - The average weighted repo rate for overnight transactions fell to 1.3606%[12] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain stable in the upcoming week, with limited seasonal impacts anticipated[13] Bond Market Insights - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.641%[14] - Credit bond yields across various maturities have generally declined, with 1-year AAA-rated bonds yielding 1.6791%[21] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased by 851.22 billion CNY, indicating a recovery in the market[17] Investment Outlook - The "Big and Beautiful" U.S. policy is expected to accelerate the weak dollar cycle, potentially leading global capital to seek refuge in Chinese assets[29] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a gradual upward trend as the economy transitions, with a focus on technology and military sectors for investment opportunities[29] - Risks include potential tightening of monetary policy and unexpected economic recovery that could lead to a significant rebound in bond yields[30]

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - Domestic consumption policies have strengthened, with the Central Financial Committee emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index reached 50.8, both slightly above expectations, indicating a positive trend in the US economy [1] Group 2 - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which has led to a reduction in the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of an earlier rate cut, while trade agreements between the US and Vietnam, as well as progress with the EU, suggest positive developments in trade negotiations [1] Group 3 - A-shares are expected to cautiously trend upwards, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress [1] - The bond market is experiencing reduced external risks and lower inflation expectations, leading to a strong short-term performance in bond prices [1] - The commodity market is showing overall fluctuations, with oil prices rebounding slightly, while the non-ferrous metals sector continues to show strong performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a rebound due to effective policy measures, although export pressures remain [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of growth [2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [2]. - New export orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points, continuing its upward trend for two months [2]. - Special bond issuance reached approximately 21,607 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 44.7% increase compared to 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]. Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year, particularly through special bonds and local government financing to support economic growth and counteract tariff impacts [3][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is anticipated to be a critical point for policy adjustments [3][5]. Inflation and Economic Growth - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has recorded negative growth for 32 consecutive months since October 2022 [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in May, with four consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is projected to be around 5.2%, with a target of 5% for the full year [4]. Future Outlook - Economic downward pressure persists, influenced by tariff fluctuations and weak domestic demand [5]. - The government may introduce additional policies to support key sectors and stabilize the economy, including potential monetary easing if external conditions worsen [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，6 月PMI为 49.7%，较上月上升 0.2 个百分点，连续三个月位于收缩 区间，6 月财新PMI 为 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点，与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。7月5 日opec发增产声明，连续第四个月增产。供需端，农膜淡季，包装膜下游持续偏弱，多数企业降 负荷，下游需求整体弱势，后续新产能投产压力仍存。近期中美交流有缓和迹象，关注谈判形势。 当前LL交割品现货价7250（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差5，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50万吨（-0.5），中性； • 4. 盘面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Although the US restarts the tariff war, the market has become somewhat insensitive after previous fluctuations in trade relations. With the release of semi - annual performance forecasts of listed companies, the market is optimistic about their H1 earnings. The series of growth - stabilizing policies to counter tariff impacts are taking effect, and the PMI, an economic leading indicator, remains in the expansion zone, driving positive expectations for Q2 economic data. Fundamental improvement supports the stock market. As the July Politburo meeting approaches, market bulls may pre - arrange, pushing the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 3958.6, up 39.2; the IH main contract (2509) rose to 2727.8, up 18.8; the IC main contract (2509) rose to 5858.0, up 106.6; the IM main contract (2509) rose to 6235.8, up 123.0 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: All contract spreads increased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread rising to 1249.4, up 18.0, and the IM - IC monthly contract spread rising to 421.8, up 13.8 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: All quarter - to - month spreads increased, like the IF current quarter - monthly spread rising to - 23.8, up 3.2 [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position rose to - 31,201.00, up 744.0; the IH top 20 net position rose to - 14,840.00, up 1692.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - **Index Prices**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose to 3998.45, up 33.3; the Shanghai 50 rose to 2747.19, up 15.7; the CSI 500 rose to 5977.74, up 77.3; the CSI 1000 rose to 6407.70, up 80.6 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. The IF main contract basis rose to - 39.9, up 7.3; the IH main contract basis rose to - 19.4, up 4.1; the IC main contract basis rose to - 119.7, up 33.1; the IM main contract basis rose to - 171.9, up 43.6 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume reached 14,746.13 billion yuan, up 2475.46 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 18,593.80 billion yuan, up 64.53 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 79.06%, up 18.98%; the IO at - the - money call option closing price (2507) rose to 27.40, up 11.60; the IO at - the - money put option closing price (2507) fell to 46.00, down 22.40 [2]. 3.5 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital aspects showed improvement. All A - shares rose to 7.60, up 2.20; the technical aspect rose to 7.90, up 1.90; the capital aspect rose to 7.20, up 2.30 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump announced tariff letters to 14 countries on social media, with different tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40%, to take effect on August 1st, and postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st. He also threatened to impose a 10% new tariff on BRICS countries [2].

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added, surpassing market expectations[9] - Nearly half of the new jobs were contributed by local governments, with 60,000 potentially affected by seasonal adjustments in the education sector[1] - The average wage growth in June was lower than expected, indicating a loosening labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The overall employment market appears weaker than suggested by the unemployment rate and job additions, with declining wage growth and PMI survey data[1] - Due to prior inventory replenishment effects and weakened demand, the impact of tariffs on inflation may be less significant than anticipated[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in September, October, and December 2025[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in goods prices due to tariffs, higher-than-expected tariff rates, significant energy price hikes from international conflicts, stricter immigration policies, and unexpected labor supply shortages in the U.S.[2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting improving demand [1] - The current PMI is primarily affected by the backlog of finished goods inventory, but as inventory is gradually digested, new order growth momentum is expected to be released further [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI for June was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The construction PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, likely linked to the acceleration of "two heavy" projects and stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, possibly due to reduced offline travel activity after holiday effects [1] Group 3: Government Debt Supply and Funding - In the first half of the year, the fiscal supply was robust, with 6.66 trillion yuan of government bonds issued, representing 51% of the annual quota [3] - Local government special bond issuance accelerated in June, with 4.4 trillion yuan of new quotas, and 48% already issued [3] - The overall issuance volume is expected to remain stable in the second half, with a projected issuance of 5.8 trillion yuan, keeping liquidity pressure manageable [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in local government special bond issuance, which may enhance funding for local-led projects [4] - The central bank's monetary policy tools are anticipated to support financing for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, potentially increasing infrastructure investment [4] - The economic recovery remains weak, with external demand showing marginal improvement, but internal economic momentum still requires strengthening [5]