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中辉有色观点-20260123
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues and the Fed's stance are key factors affecting precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but short - term fluctuations are affected by seasonality and market sentiment. Zinc shows a short - term rebound but is limited by weak fundamentals. Aluminum and nickel face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon have short - term rebound opportunities. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish with supply - side disturbances [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold reached a new high due to geopolitical issues. SHFE gold was at 1087.58 with a - 0.43% daily change and a 3.40% weekly change; COMEX gold was at 4938 with a 2.11% daily change and a 7.33% weekly change. Silver also showed an upward trend. SHFE silver was at 23339 with a 0.90% daily change and a 0.65% weekly change; COMEX silver was at 96 with a 3.51% daily change and a 6.97% weekly change [2]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical issues such as Trump's rumored actions in Cuba and the weakening of the US dollar due to large - scale capital outflows from US dollar assets. Central banks continue to buy gold, and long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged. Silver's logic is dominated by gold's safe - haven property [1][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding. The short - term support for domestic gold is at 1040, and for domestic silver is at 21000. In 2026, the overall support for precious metals is still strong, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The 100,000 - yuan mark was regained after a tug - of - war. The closing price of SHFE copper was 100270, down 0.43% from the previous day [4]. - **Core Logic**: BHP slightly raised its copper production guidance for fiscal year 2026. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, with tight global copper concentrate supply and growing green demand for copper [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For existing long positions, use trailing stop - loss to lock in profits. New entrants should wait for a full correction. In the long - term, copper is still promising. Short - term, SHFE copper is in the range of [99500, 103000] yuan/ton, and LME copper is in the range of [12500, 13000] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The market sentiment improved, and zinc showed a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The closing price of SHFE zinc was 24530, up 0.74% from the previous day [7]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production increases are uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates declined during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should take profits on rallies. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging to lock in profits. SHFE zinc is in the range of [24200, 24800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is in the range of [3150, 3250] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the short - term, and alumina stabilized at a low level [11]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates showed a differentiated trend. The alumina market remained oversupplied [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For SHFE aluminum, take profits and wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25000] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices faced pressure in the short - term, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. Indonesia significantly reduced its nickel ore production target, and there were issues of illegal land occupation in some mines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel was in the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [133000 - 151000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, hitting a new high during the session [18]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the news of canceling export tax rebates for lithium batteries, prices rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the overall decline of the non - ferrous sector and exchange position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants had high enthusiasm for production, and the new production capacity of material plants in 2026 provided support for rigid demand [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: High - level oscillation in the range of [16400 - 175000] [20].
原油成品油早报-20260123
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 02:09
原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/23 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT(EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/16 | 59.44 | 64.13 | 61.66 | 2.28 | 0.67 | -4.69 | 1.44 | 178.52 | 10.85 | 223.76 | 29.85 | | 2026/01/19 | - | 63.94 | - | 2.28 | 0.72 | - | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | | 2026/01/20 | 60.36 | 64.92 | 61.79 | 2 ...
美股周四收高道指涨307点,纳指金龙指数涨1.58%
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-23 02:07
北京时间1月23日凌晨,美股周四收高,道指连续第二日上涨,完全抹去周二蒙受的损失。特朗普取消 与格陵兰相关关税后,地缘政治紧张局势有所缓解,带动市场连续第二个交易日反弹。 道指涨306.78点,涨幅为0.63%,报49384.01点;纳指涨211.20点,涨幅为0.91%,报23436.02点;标普 500指数涨37.73点,涨幅为0.55%,报6913.35点。英伟达、微软、美光科技及Meta Platforms等科技股普 遍走高。 美国总统特朗普周三表示,将不再实施原定于2月1日开始的对欧洲新关税,并宣布就格陵兰问题达成了 协议"框架"。近几周特朗普持续推动美国控制格陵兰,其在Truth Social发文称,已和北约秘书长马克· 吕特形成关于格陵兰乃至整个北极地区的未来协议框架,随后对媒体称与格陵兰达成"协议概念"。此前 他在达沃斯论坛表态不会动用武力获取格陵兰。 热门中概股多数上涨,纳斯达克中国金龙指数收高1.58%,阿里巴巴涨5.06%,理想汽车涨3.54%,哔哩 哔哩涨4.53%,富途控股则下跌2.39%。 声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成,仅供参考,不构成个人投资建议。 ...
宁证期货今日早评-20260123
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 02:02
Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Industries No investment ratings for industries are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The US economy remains strong, boosting silver. However, short - term upward momentum for silver is limited, and the interaction between gold and silver should be monitored [1]. - Domestic methanol has high production but falling downstream demand. Port inventory has slightly increased, and the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals of coking coal will gradually improve, and the spot price has upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The supply of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - Steel demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues. It is recommended to wait and see for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - Palm oil futures prices are likely to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal will follow the external market, and it lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to strengthen with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Gold has risen again due to geopolitical events, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of copper are weak, and it is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations [8]. - The international oil price has fallen, and there is currently no significant upward driving force in the crude oil market [9]. - PTA supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, but the inventory build - up is limited, and it mainly follows raw material price fluctuations [11]. - Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. - The supply - demand of aluminum is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term with new production capacity pressure and a decline in high - level inventory [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: The US GDP growth, inflation data, and employment situation show a strong economy, which boosts silver. Long - term bullish, short - term upward momentum is limited [1]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical events such as the Greenland issue have led to an increase in gold prices. Excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, US inventory has increased, and the market lacks upward driving force. Short - term trading is appropriate [9]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic production, falling downstream demand, rising port inventory. Expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, inventory build - up is limited, and it follows raw material price fluctuations. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - **PVC**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, but the price is relatively firm. Expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: New production capacity pressure, high - level inventory decline, and expected short - term fluctuations [14][15]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to wait for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Follows the external market in the short term, lacks a clear direction. Recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Supply is shrinking overseas, but there is pressure from imports and inventory. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, fundamentals will improve, spot price has upward momentum, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - **Rebar**: Demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12].
2026年01月23日:期货市场交易指引-20260123
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 01:38
期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指: | 中长期看好,逢低做多 | | ◆国债: | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤: | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢: | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃: | 观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜: | 前期多单逢高离场观望 | | ◆铝: | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍: | 建议观望 | | ◆锡: | 区间交易或前期多单止盈 | | ◆黄金: | 区间交易 | | ◆白银: | 偏强运行 | | ◆碳酸锂: | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC: | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱: | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱: | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯: | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶: | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素: | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇: | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃: | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱: | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣: | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪: | 反弹滚动空机 ...
地缘紧张有所缓解,铂钯延续震荡
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 01:25
地缘紧张有所缓解,铂钯延续震荡 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(有⾊每⽇报告) 2026-01-23 据新华社1⽉22⽇消息,美国总统特朗普21⽇在社交媒体发⽂称,他已同 北约秘书⻓吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框架,因此不会实 施原定于2⽉1⽇⽣效、对欧洲8国加征关税的措施。地缘紧张有所缓解, 铂钯延续震荡⾛势。据上海有⾊⽹数据,截⾄2026年1⽉22⽇收盘,GFE X铂主⼒合约收盘价为633.85元/克,跌幅-0.92%;GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘 价为483.75元/克,跌幅-1.90%。 铂观点:供应与地缘风险持续扰动,铂金延续震荡 主要逻辑:近期南非北部地区持续强降雨引发洪灾,预计将对矿区生产、 物流运输及供应稳定性造成潜在影响。地缘方面近日紧张情况有所缓解, 据新华社1月22日消息,美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体发文称,他已同 北约秘书长吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框架,因此不会实 施原定于2月1日生效、对欧洲8国加征关税的措施,且不会武力夺取格陵 兰岛。美联储新任主席提名、美国对铂钯关税预期同样是近期影响市场的 关键因素,短期铂价或延续震荡走势,可关注 ...
《能源化工》日报-20260123
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 01:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply slightly declined, downstream load increased, and port inventory decreased, but the absolute inventory level remained high. Styrene was driven by exports and device issues, with strong price trends. The spread between styrene and pure benzene is expected to have limited room for further expansion. Strategies include temporary observation and focusing on opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread [1]. Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as Thailand and Vietnam enter the production - reduction period, and raw material prices are rising. Demand from some semi - steel tire enterprises for export is sufficient, but domestic sales are slow. The social inventory of natural rubber in China is accumulating. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Spot prices are stable, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Glass: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Futures prices are expected to continue the weak - oscillation trend in the short term [6]. Crude Oil - International oil prices declined due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and significant inventory accumulation. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel in the short term [8]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the marginal supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand situation is weak, but the balance has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [10]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, and the basis is weakening. The inland supply is high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but MTO demand is weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of Iranian imports and the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums [12]. Urea - Urea futures rose, and spot prices were stable. Supply is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1,740 - 1,790 range [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Prices rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the rebound height of futures is expected to be limited. - PVC: Futures rose, but the supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate widely with cost support and supply - demand pressure [15]. LPG - LPG futures prices rose, and inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly. The market situation needs to be further observed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high in January, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and have strong support in the second quarter. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, and the basis is weakening. Futures prices rose, but the self - driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. - MEG: Supply is high, and there is a large inventory accumulation expectation. - Bottle chips: Supply is expected to decline, and demand will weaken seasonally. - Short fibers: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices follow raw materials [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China pure benzene prices increased. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha widened [1]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene widened [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased, and the basis changed [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai and Indonesian rubber production decreased, while Indian and Chinese production increased. Tire production and export increased, and the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires changed [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory of natural rubber increased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and operating rate increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while SC crude oil prices increased. Spreads between different crude oil varieties and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Refined oil prices decreased, and spreads between different refined oil products and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of some refined oil products decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: LLDPE and PP futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between LLDPE and PP changed [10]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream operating rates changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed [12]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventories changed, with enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory increasing [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices rose, and spot prices were stable [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea production increased, and demand from some industries decreased. The inventory decreased [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with PVC prices rising and caustic soda prices rebounding slightly [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed [15]. - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Inventory**: Chlor - alkali social and factory inventories changed [15]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures changed [16]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased [16]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, MX, and PX prices changed [17]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips changed [17]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads changed [17]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads changed [17]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory decreased, and the arrival expectation increased [17]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17].
中国央行表态继续实施适度宽松货币政策
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 01:10
日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an:k] 2026-01-23 中国央行表态继续实施适度宽松货币政策 宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数)) 美国消费者支出连续两个月稳步增长 美国最新的 11 月核心 pce 同比符合预期,通胀压力继续可控, 美元指数维持震荡。 黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板) Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比增加 10.07 万吨 综 本周五大品种库存再度累积,随着需求的季节性下滑,和产量 回升,建材累库较为明显。卷板整体小幅去库,需求仍有韧性。 短期矛盾尚不突出,仍建议反弹逢高套保。 合 宏观策略(国债期货) 晨 央行行长潘功胜:今年降准降息还有一定的空间 报 央行呵护流动性的态度较为明确,但预计短期内降准或是大幅 增加买债额度的必要性继续下降。 有色金属(铜) 韩国锌业称美国冶炼厂废料堆含 30 亿美元金属价值 短期宏观因素可能会加剧价格波动,基本面短期因素对铜价形 成抑制,预计盘面短期宽幅震荡可能性更大,策略上短线转观 望。 能源化工(苯乙烯) 苯乙烯周度产量数据 多头增仓意愿强烈,苯乙烯盘面大幅上扬 | 1、 金融要闻及点评 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1. ...
直击达沃斯|对话陈茂波:香港是一个生机勃勃的投资目的地
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-23 00:10
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, emphasizes the city's competitive advantages in various sectors, including artificial intelligence, life sciences, and financial technology, while acknowledging the complexities of the current international landscape and the dual nature of technological change as both a risk and an opportunity [3][10]. Group 1: Competitive Advantages - Hong Kong possesses inherent competitive advantages supported by national backing, particularly in artificial intelligence, life sciences, and financial technology [3][11]. - The city ranks in the top 25 globally for artificial intelligence and data science, as well as for its two medical schools, showcasing its strengths in research and talent [3][10]. - Collaboration with the Greater Bay Area enhances Hong Kong's advantages, providing a robust application environment for technological advancements [3][10]. Group 2: Financial Market Performance - Since 2025, Hong Kong's IPO market has been thriving, raising over 280 billion HKD, with daily trading volumes exceeding 250 billion HKD, nearly doubling from the previous year [5][12]. - The market has attracted significant overseas and mainland investments, with many cornerstone investors from the Middle East and Western institutions [5][12]. - There are over 400 companies waiting to go public, indicating a strong pipeline for future IPOs, which is a positive sign for the financial market's outlook [5][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Financial Secretary expresses a cautiously optimistic view for 2026, balancing concerns over geopolitical risks and market volatility with the strong demand for IPOs [5][12]. - The growing income levels of the 1.4 billion population in China present a significant market opportunity for investors [5][12]. - Hong Kong is portrayed as a safe and vibrant destination, inviting international investors to explore its potential firsthand [6][13].
中金:地缘争端下的欧美贸易关系
智通财经网· 2026-01-22 23:58
特朗普于周三表示,经过与北约秘书长的谈判,将不再对一系列欧洲国家征收原定于2月1日起实施的关 税。后续相关事项的变化及欧洲的反应仍存在较大的不确定性。在此之前,欧盟的贸易协定内容除了欧 盟对美出口的大部分货物适用于最高15%的关税税率外,欧盟也承诺增加对美国投资、购买美国的能源 品和芯片,并取消对美国工业品的关税,同时降低食品及农产品贸易的非关税壁垒。 欧盟的抓手与短板: 从与美国的贸易体量和结构、投资规模、就业等角度,美欧之间的经济联系紧密,可提供多方面抓手。 欧盟与美国拥有全球规模最大的双边贸易与投资关系,欧盟在美国出口区域中的占比最高,2025年2月 占到美国总出口的17%,高于中国(6%)、东盟(6%)和日本(4%)。同时,欧盟也是美国最大的FDI来源 国,2023年欧盟对美直接投资存量达到2.4万亿美元,高于日本(0.7万亿美元)和中国,其中一半左右分 布在制造业。根据欧盟的测算,欧盟对美投资支持了美国约340万就业岗位。另外,欧盟也是美国服务 业的重要市场。欧元区对美虽有较大的货物贸易顺差,但同时有较大服务逆差,整体的贸易结构相对处 于平衡状态,而服务正是反胁迫机制(ACI)可以针对的领域。 然而 ...