【近期多数能化品种受原油价格拖累回落，苯乙烯供需存变数】近期，上游原油价格下跌，拖累多数能 化品种，苯乙烯等出现不同程度回落。 从苯乙烯基本面看，供应端，国内部分装置检修计划落地，行 业开工率从高位下滑，产量有波动，进口到港量环比减少，短期库存压力缓解，但整体供应仍充足。 需求侧，下游EPS和PS行业开工率小涨，提供一定支撑。不过终端家电等领域订单无明显增量，市场跟 进有限，采购积极性低，整体以刚性需求为主。 库存方面，近期数据显示港口库存积累，去库压力仍 在，后续需关注供需边际变化。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline of EB2511 is expected to weaken, with the daily range estimated to be around 6480 - 6600 [3]. - The output and capacity utilization rate of styrene are expected to increase slightly this week. The mismatch between upstream and downstream production may deepen the supply - demand contradiction. The inventory pressure is relatively high and may maintain a slow destocking trend. The cost support effect is gradually strengthening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures active contracts is 433,433 lots, with a decrease of 7,309 lots; the closing price of the active contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the long position of the top 20 holders is 299,752 lots, with a decrease of 4,064 lots; the net long position is - 20,008 lots, with a decrease of 7,092 lots; the short position is 440,525 lots, with an increase of 1,325 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,341 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots [2]. - The closing price of the November contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 811 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price is 6600 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,020 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6,675 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), 6,615 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and 6,585 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 786 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 716 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf spot price of pure benzene is 695.86 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF Taiwan price is 250 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the FOB Rotterdam price is 655 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,630 yuan/ton, and 5,510 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.61%, with an increase of 2.37%. The national styrene inventory is 193,863 tons, with a decrease of 9,411 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports is 19.65 million tons, with a decrease of 0.54 million tons; the trade inventory in East China's main ports is 12.15 million tons, with an increase of 0.51 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 40.74% (down 2.37%), 72.5% (up 1.5%), 54.6% (down 1.7%), 20% (down 7%), and 70.05% (down 0.27%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th , China's styrene factory output was 347,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3%; the capacity utilization rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2.37% [2]. - From October 3rd to 9th , the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 239,800 tons [2]. - As of October 9th , the styrene factory inventory was 193,900 tons, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous period. As of October 13th , the styrene inventory in East China's ports was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 2.67% from the previous period; the inventory in South China's ports was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 11.59% [2]. - As of October 13th , the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7,204.32 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 499.32 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, due to rumors and weak overall commodity sentiment, the price has fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high while demand is weak with high inventory pressure. However, the downside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped. The supply has increased, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It's currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.90 yuan/barrel, a 0.64% decline, at 448.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased, while diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 15 yuan, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 68 yuan to 2274 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 11 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to rumors and weak overall sentiment, the price fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The downside space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan, and in Henan, it fluctuated between - 10 and + 20 yuan. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 67 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, the futures price dropped, supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. It's in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market expectation is highly uncertain, and the global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber price oscillated weakly. The long and short sides have different views on the price trend. Tire production rates decreased during the National Day holiday [10][11][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 29 yuan to 4692 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 112 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 312 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased. The downstream operating rate remained flat, and the inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China decreased by 85 yuan/ton, and the spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate increased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate decreased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6918 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 6602 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 65 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 92 yuan to 6338 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 12 dollars to 779 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted or were under maintenance. The import from South Korea to China increased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 70 yuan to 4440 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan to 4380 yuan. The supply - side load decreased, and the downstream load remained flat. The inventory increased, and the spot processing fee increased while the futures processing fee decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 4061 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 62 yuan to 4145 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and the downstream load remained flat. The import forecast increased, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

基本面上. 至10月9日,中国甲醇港口库存总量在154.32万吨,较上一期数据增加5.10万吨。其中,华东地区累库,库存增 加4.78万吨;华南地区累库,库存增加0.32万吨。目前甲醇自身港口库存仍处于近五年最高位,且内地生产装置延续偏高 开工，短期供给压力仍存。而核心下游烯烃价格受中美扰动与偏弱油价持续走低。这是制约甲醇价格的主要因素。 同时, 伊朗端犹动仍存, 此前美对伊朗部分船只制裁, 其中涉及部分甲醇运输船只, 但今日凌晨特朗普对伊朗口风转向, 提出解除制裁可能。 以上信息短期扰动盘面,甲醇波动率提升明显。 2025/10/14 | | 董丹丹 | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 杨黎 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 从业资格号:F03147405 | 证监许可 【2012】 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0021744 | 投资咨询号: Z0015448 | 投资咨询号: Z0020561 | 投资咨询号:Z0022768 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The methanol market presents a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between current pressure and future expectations. Supply - some inland plants are expected to resume production, but the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland area supports prices. Demand - traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected commissioning of new polyolefin plants suppresses MTO demand. Attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, PE's operating rate is rising, with few planned maintenance, and long - term supply pressure is prominent due to domestic production growth and overseas year - end inventory clearance. For PP, its valuation has been repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, and the restart rhythm of plants needs attention. In October, new plant commissioning pressure is high, and demand lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, domestic load remains high, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees, delayed commissioning of new PTA plants, and multiple PTA plants' maintenance plans. In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on PX1 following crude oil price rebounds and reverse calendar spreads. For PTA, supply is expected to shrink, but the basis repair is limited due to loose spot circulation and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations. Absolute prices are dragged down by weak oil prices and tariff policy uncertainties. Strategies include bearish trading on TA following crude oil price rebounds and rolling reverse calendar spreads for TA1 - 5. For ethylene glycol, port arrivals are high, new plant production is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with a weak supply - demand structure in the far - month. Strategies include shorting EG01, selling out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 - C - 4350, and reverse calendar spreads for EG1 - 5. For short - fiber, supply is high, and demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to tariffs and weak oil prices. However, low inventory provides some support. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PF11, and the PF processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. For bottle - chips, demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter the inventory accumulation period. PR follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to improve slightly. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PR, and the PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, supply is expected to remain high due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity commissioning. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream plants plan to reduce production. However, port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Strategies include trading BZ2603 in line with styrene and crude oil price fluctuations. For styrene, supply is expected to increase due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of some plants. Although some plants may shut down for maintenance, it is difficult to offset the new supply. Demand decreased during the holiday but is expected to recover gradually. However, downstream profit pressure and high inventory may limit demand support. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on EB11 price rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, post - holiday inventory has increased significantly, and spot trading is light. Downstream non - aluminum inventory is being digested, and there may be some purchasing demand at low prices. The main alumina downstream has high inventory and low restocking willingness, and the future purchase price may be lowered. In the short term, caustic soda demand lacks support and is weak, but there is medium - to - long - term demand support from alumina's future commissioning. Short - term trading can be bearish, and downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season, with a continuous contraction in profile demand. However, exports relieve some of the oversupply pressure. Cost provides some bottom - line support. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2307 on October 10, up 17 (0.74%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2351, up 5 (0.21%). The MA15 spread was - 44, up 12 (- 21.43%). The Taicang basis was - 136, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the Inner Mongolia northern line was 2068 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.72%); Henan Luoyang was 2195, down 5 (- 0.23%); Taicang port was 2215, up 5 (0.23%). The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 148, up 20 (15.69%); between Taicang and Luoyang was 20, up 10 (100%) [1]. Inventory - Mid - sized methanol enterprises' inventory was 33.94 (6.08% increase); methanol port inventory was 154.3 million tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. Operating Rates - Upstream: domestic enterprises' operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); overseas enterprises in Shanghai was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); northwest enterprises' sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%). Downstream: the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); formaldehyde was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); acetic acid was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); MIBE + was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Polyolefin Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7037 on October 10, down 40 (- 0.57%); L2509 closed at 7124, down 34 (- 0.47%); PP2601 closed at 6722, down 23 (- 0.34%); PP2509 closed at 6782, down 25 (- 0.37%). The L2509 - 2601 spread was 87, up 6 (7.41%); PP2509 - 2601 was 60, down 2 (- 3.23%). Spot prices: East China PP fiber was 6630, down 20 (- 0.75%); North China LLDPE film was 6980, down 50 (- 0.71%) [5]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 48.9 million tons (27.67% increase), and social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%). PP enterprise inventory was 68.1 million tons (30.96% increase), and trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. Operating Rates - PE: the operating rate of plants was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%). PP: the operating rate of plants was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); powder plants was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Prices and Spreads - Crude oil and related products: Brent crude oil (December) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%). PX - related: CFR China PX was $809/ton, down $11 (- 1.4%); PX spot price (in RMB) was 6504 yuan/ton, down 82 (- 1.2%). Polyester products: POY150/48 price was 6770 yuan/ton, unchanged; DTY150/48 was 7850 yuan/ton, down 20 (- 0.3%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 23 (- 0.4%) [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 50.7 million tons, up 24.0% from September 22; the expected arrival was 8.0 million tons, down 15.4 (- 65.8%). Operating rates: Asian PX was 79.9%, up 1.9%; PTA was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG was 75.1%, up 2.7%; polyester comprehensive was 91.5%, up 1.2% [6]. Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads - Upstream: Brent crude oil (November) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was $577/ton, down $7 (- 1.2%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785/ton, down $20 (- 2.5%). Benzene - styrene: styrene East China spot was 6750 yuan/ton, down 80 (- 1.2%); EB2510 was 6670 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.8%); EB2511 was 6743 yuan/ton, down 75 (- 1.1%) [7]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Inventory: pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.10 million tons, down 1.50 (- 14.2%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 20.19 million tons, up 0.44 (2.2%). Operating rates: Asian pure benzene was 80.1%, up 1.1%; domestic pure benzene was 79.3%, up 0.6%; domestic hydrogenated benzene was 78.0%, unchanged; styrene was 73.2%, down 0.1% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - Caustic soda: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2546.9 yuan/ton, up 46.9 (1.9%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. PVC: East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 (- 1.0%) [8]. Supply and Demand - Supply (operating rates): caustic soda industry was 88.2%, up 1.4 (1.6%); PVC total was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%). Demand: caustic soda downstream - alumina industry was 83.4%, down 0.3 (- 0.3%); PVC downstream - Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 15.9%, down 23.0 (- 59.2%) [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol may be a low - level oscillating pattern. The marginal contraction of supply provides bottom support for prices, but the lack of improvement in the polyester and terminal weaving loads on the demand side, along with the increase in port inventories to a yearly high, suppresses the price rebound space. Future attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations in crude oil/coal and the seasonal improvement rhythm of downstream orders. If inventory depletion fails to meet expectations, prices may test previous lows again [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: From September 30 to October 9, the price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped from 4,207 yuan/ton to 4,158 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.16%, showing a five - day consecutive downward trend. The East China spot price also fell by 45 yuan/ton to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened from 63 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, deepening the futures discount [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots, indicating intensified market divergence and active short - side position - increasing during the price decline [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 70.33%, with a significant 1.6 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based unit operating rate to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The contraction of oil - based production capacity provides marginal support to the supply side [2]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment lacked incremental drivers for ethylene glycol consumption [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating low actual port shipments and accelerating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 1.16% to 4,158 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 1.05% to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 77.78% to 112 yuan/ton [5]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The main contract position increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.37% to 70.3%, with the oil - based operating rate dropping by 2.13% to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On October 9, the East China US - dollar market first declined and then slightly recovered, with no reported transactions. The mainstream market center dropped, and prices in the South China, Shaanxi, and East China markets all decreased due to weak supply - demand patterns and downstream demand [6]. - During the holiday, international oil prices fell, weakening cost - side support. Domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, and port inventories accumulated [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rates, downstream polyester unit operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics [7][9][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA continue to operate weakly due to weakened cost support and inventory accumulation pressure [1] - The price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, with POY potentially performing stronger due to low inventory [4] - Considering the supply, demand, and inventory situation, PX and PTA prices may continue to face downward pressure unless there is a sustained improvement in demand or supply - side maintenance and production cuts [38] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,570 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,594 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on September 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.77 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.18 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 865,670 meters [2] - The supply of PX and PTA is generally loose. The continuous weakening of the PX basis reflects the current oversupply pressure in the spot market. Although some domestic PX plants have short - term shutdowns and overhauls, the overall operating rate remains relatively high. For PTA, low processing fees have increased the factory's willingness to cut production, but the reduction of some plants under high inventory is insufficient to reverse the supply - demand pattern, and the supply pressure will continue with future new plant commissioning plans [2] - Downstream polyester demand shows signs of marginal weakening. The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City is mainly driven by short - term factors such as pre - holiday restocking. The 15 - day average trading data is still lower than the normal level in the peak season, and the terminal weaving orders show seasonal weakening signs. The polyester sector maintains rigid demand, but there is a risk of a decline in the operating rate under increasing inventory pressure, and the procurement demand for PTA may weaken marginally [3] - The PTA inventory structure continues the inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory days of PTA factories are flat month - on - month but still at a high absolute level, and the continuous accumulation of social inventory reflects the loose supply - demand pattern. Considering the incremental pressure brought by the commissioning of the new Fengming plant in October and the uncertainty of the sustainability of downstream restocking, the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared, and high inventory will continue to suppress the spot price and futures valuation [3] Polyester - On September 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,276 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,405 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 trading volume of China Light Textile City has continuously climbed from 760,000 meters to 865,670 meters. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (6.36 days), polyester filament DTY (29.5 days), and FDY (25.7 days) are all higher than the average of the past 5 years, while the inventory days of POY (18.8 days) are lower than the 5 - year average of 20.4 days, indicating inventory reduction pressure for staple fiber and some filament varieties. Overall, driven by the downward trend of oil prices at the PX - PTA cost end and the slow recovery of demand, the price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, and POY may perform stronger due to low inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.50% to 6,570 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 5.68% to 189,612 lots, and the open interest decreased by 17.48% to 68,124 lots [5] - PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port and the FOB price in South Korea remained unchanged at 816 US dollars/ton and 792 US dollars/ton respectively [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.25% to 4,594 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 2.27% to 593,958 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2.50% to 964,348 lots [5] - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 613 US dollars/ton [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.95% to 6,276 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 1.21% to 183,370 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19.97% to 93,016 lots [5] - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market decreased by 0.47% to 6,405 yuan/ton [5] - Other industrial chain prices such as Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of PTA increased by 1.13% to 189.3 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [6] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume increased by 17.93% to 1.23 million meters, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [6][9] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 11.05%, 8.74%, 10.76%, and 6.35% respectively [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 30, gold broke through 3,830 US dollars, reaching new highs, and the value of the US gold reserve exceeded 1 trillion US dollars [7] - New York Fed President Williams supported interest rate cuts at the previous meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, estimating the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%; this year's voting member, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, is open to future interest rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters; Cleveland Fed President Hamerak continues to advocate a hawkish stance, saying that tight monetary policy needs to be maintained to curb inflation [7] - Switzerland plans to invest in the US gold refining industry in exchange for Trump's tariff reduction [7] - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza conflict, with Israel to withdraw troops in stages, not occupy or annex Gaza; a peace committee chaired by Trump will be established, and Israel has accepted the plan while Hamas will review it [7] - On September 29, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supports the Fed holding only treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month; from January to August, the year - on - year increase was 0.9% [7] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 17.93%, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX and PTA main futures and basis, PTA futures monthly spreads, short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product inventory days, etc [10][12][14] 5. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - On September 30, PX and PTA main contracts declined by 1.5% and 1.25% respectively. The decline in crude oil prices may affect upstream costs. The trading volume of Light Textile City on that day was 1.23 million meters, with a 15 - day average of 865,670 meters, indicating possible fluctuations in recent demand [37] - On the supply side, the negative PX basis may indicate sufficient spot supply or inventory accumulation pressure, and there may be some plant restarts. For PTA, the basis has turned from negative to positive, but the inventory has not changed significantly, and the supply pressure may increase as factories maintain high operating rates under low profits. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning or overhaul plans [37] - On the demand side, the sudden increase in the trading volume of Light Textile City, but with a daily average of 865,000 meters, may show short - term restocking or temporary order increases in the downstream, but the overall improvement of the textile industry is uncertain. If the polyester operating rate remains high, it may support PTA demand; otherwise, there may be inventory accumulation risks [37] - In terms of inventory, the PTA factory inventory days are at a medium level, but the social inventory has increased compared with last week. If downstream demand cannot be sustained, inventory may continue to accumulate, especially if the supply side maintains a high operating rate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the next few weeks [38] - Overall, the decline in crude oil prices may reduce the costs of PX and PTA, but PX supply is sufficient and PTA supply pressure is high; the short - term demand is strong but its sustainability is uncertain; inventory has begun to accumulate. Therefore, PX and PTA prices may continue to be under downward pressure unless there is a continuous improvement in demand or supply - side overhauls and production cuts [38]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

Market Overview - As of September 30, the price of rebar is 3230 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in shipments to 54,000 tons, up by 14,000 tons compared to the same period last week [1] - Rebar inventory in Hangzhou is at 834,000 tons, down by 176,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The Shanghai rebar price index shows a slight fluctuation throughout September, with a peak of 3206 CNY/ton and a low of 3139 CNY/ton, resulting in a maximum fluctuation of less than 70 CNY/ton [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of September 25, rebar production has shifted from decline to increase, with a production of 2.0646 million tons, up by 0.01 million tons from the previous week [1] - The apparent demand for rebar is 2.2044 million tons, which is an increase of 104,100 tons, reflecting a growth rate of 4.96% [1] - Despite a slight improvement in demand in September, the long-term outlook for the real estate sector remains negative, leading to a year-on-year decline in rebar demand [3] Industry Sentiment - According to Ningzheng Futures, cash flow for most downstream enterprises has improved only slightly, with weak inventory accumulation concerns ahead of the National Day holiday [2] - There are expectations of increased supply-demand pressure post-holiday, which may lead to production cuts by steel mills [2] - Southwest Futures notes that the overall inventory levels for rebar are significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating rising inventory pressure [3]

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]