Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump claims that the Federal Reserve is stifling the real estate market and asserts that a 1% interest rate level is appropriate [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights concerns regarding the impact of Federal Reserve policies on the real estate sector [1] - The assertion of a 1% interest rate level suggests a preference for lower borrowing costs to stimulate the housing market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China is the primary global supplier of major home appliances, with nearly half of its production capacity exported overseas, mainly to fill the supply gaps in North America, Asia, and Europe. However, the export may be affected by demand pull - forward and price increases caused by tariffs. - In 2025, the subsidy effect of China's white goods may weaken in H2, and the stabilizing property market is expected to support domestic demand resilience. Export pressure will increase, and production scheduling will decline. The slowdown in the global production and sales growth of major appliances will suppress the demand for copper and EB [2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. China's Home Appliance Exports - China's home appliance exports are mainly to Asian, European, and North American countries. In 2024, the total export value of China's three major white goods was $50.9 billion, with a total volume of 219 million units. Half of China's domestic capacity serves global demand. Refrigerators, washing machines, and air - conditioners exported to Europe and North America account for 45%, 52%, and 37% respectively [9][10]. - The ratio of China's domestic sales, exports, and overseas production is 3:3:4. China fills about half of North America's supply - demand gap. China directly exports about 22 million units to the US, accounting for 10.5% of total exports. In 2024, imports from China accounted for nearly 50% of North America's supply - demand gap [12][14]. 2. Negative Impact of Tariffs - The US tariff policy has shifted from targeting China's production capacity to promoting the use of domestic materials. On June 12, the US imposed new duties on steel - derived appliances from June 23. Steel accounts for 15% of refrigerator costs and 35% of washer costs [19][20]. - Tariff - induced demand pull - forward and price hikes may suppress China's export demand. There is an inverse relationship between US appliance sales YoY growth and major appliance CPI. A 10% price increase in 2025 is expected to lead to only about 1% volume growth in North America [25][26]. 3. Copper & EB Demand May Face Pressures 3.1 China Appliance Market - The efficacy of China's white goods subsidy may weaken in H2. As of April 27, the national replacement sales reached 49.4 million units. After the initial RMB160 billion allocation, RMB140 billion will be gradually disbursed from July. Regional subsidy restrictions will be implemented, and the real - estate market is expected to support a 5% YoY growth in domestic sales in 2025 [30][31]. - China's appliance exports face H1 demand pull - forward and H2 order pressure. The restocking cycle is expected to end by August, and Q3 production will be pressured. China's full - year appliance export growth is estimated at 2% [32][33]. 3.2 Related Commodities Risks - In 2025, the global sales of three major white goods are estimated at 614 million units, a 3.62% YoY increase. China's total sales are projected at 444 million units, and the total output is 694 million units, a 4.45% YoY increase. - The consumption of steel, copper, aluminum, and EB in home appliance production is forecast at 262.6 million tons, 28.4 million tons, 22.9 million tons, and 7.6 million tons respectively. Since home - appliance use of EB accounts for 40% of total EB demand and EB supply is already in surplus, its demand pressure will be prominent in H2. Copper's supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a decline in appliance demand may increase the risk of surplus [35][36].

Core Insights - Shanghai's housing prices have increased again, leading the nation in growth [1][3] - The overall new housing sales in China have decreased by 5.5% in the first half of 2025, with residential sales down by 5.2% [3] - Shanghai's new housing prices have shown a significant year-on-year increase of 5.8%, marking the longest continuous rise in the country [3][4] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, new residential sales in Shanghai reached 44,241 billion yuan, with a notable decrease in sales volume [3] - The average price of new homes in Shanghai has reached 991 million yuan, nearing the 1 billion yuan mark [6] - The top ten projects in terms of sales area in Shanghai predominantly feature luxury properties priced at 100,000 yuan per square meter [6][7] Price Trends - In June, new housing prices in Shanghai increased by 0.4% month-on-month, ranking first alongside Changsha [4] - Conversely, the second-hand housing prices in Shanghai decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [4] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices in Shanghai fell by 1.3%, the smallest decline among major cities [5] Market Dynamics - The demand for new homes in suburban areas has significantly weakened, with some projects experiencing a sales cycle extending beyond 24 months [8] - Analysts predict that luxury properties will continue to drive average prices upward, while second-hand housing prices may remain stable or slightly decline without additional policy support [8][9] - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai is showing signs of a slowdown, with a 3.15% decrease in transactions in June compared to the previous month [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share investment has a high cost - performance ratio in the medium - to - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000, supported by more science and innovation policies, may bring higher returns due to their high growth potential. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2]. - It is expected that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is beneficial to reducing stock market volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the IF current - month contract down 4.80, the next - month contract down 7.40, the next - quarter contract down 9.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 9.80. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 39,238.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 4,132.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts dropped, with the current - month contract down 16.00, the next - month contract down 18.20, the next - quarter contract down 17.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 18.20. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 19,124.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 1,830.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts declined, with the current - month contract down 7.40, the next - month contract down 12.60, the next - quarter contract down 15.20, and the alternate - quarter contract down 13.00. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 39,182.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 5,099.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the current - month contract down 28.60, the next - month contract down 29.20, the next - quarter contract down 34.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 31.60. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 49,078.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 4,311.00 [1]. 3.2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The index rose 0.03%, with a previous value of 4,019.06, a trading volume of 19.104 billion lots, and a total trading value of 353.525 billion yuan [1]. - **SSE 50 Index**: The index dropped 0.38%, with a previous value of 2,747.23, a trading volume of 4.117 billion lots, and a total trading value of 79.806 billion yuan [1]. - **CSI 500 Index**: The index fell 0.10%, with a previous value of 6,020.86, a trading volume of 18.928 billion lots, and a total trading value of 226.291 billion yuan [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index decreased 0.30%, with a previous value of 6,442.83, a trading volume of 26.987 billion lots, and a total trading value of 347.378 billion yuan [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: The energy sector dropped 0.55%, the raw materials sector decreased 0.89%, the industrial sector fell 0.47%, the optional consumption sector rose 0.93%, the main consumption sector dropped 0.94%, the medical and health sector decreased 0.05%, the real - estate and finance sector fell 0.79%, the information technology sector rose 1.40%, the telecommunications business sector rose 6.09%, and the public utilities sector decreased 0.69% [1]. 3.3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The basis of the IF current - month contract to the CSI 300 was - 9.46, the next - month contract was - 25.86, the next - quarter contract was - 38.46, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 70.46 [1]. - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The basis of the IH current - month contract to the SSE 50 was - 7.03, the next - month contract was - 12.23, the next - quarter contract was - 13.03, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 12.03 [1]. - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The basis of the IC current - month contract to the CSI 500 was - 10.56, the next - month contract was - 69.76, the next - quarter contract was - 125.36, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 248.36 [1]. - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The basis of the IM current - month contract to the CSI 1000 was - 20.83, the next - month contract was - 90.03, the next - quarter contract was - 165.43, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 343.83 [1]. 3.4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, the Small and Medium - Cap Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index rose 1.60%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.40%, and the DAX Index dropped 0.42% [1]. 3.5. Macroeconomic Information - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The first - quarter GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2%. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% [2]. - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14th to 15th. China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [2]. - The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow overall. There were 14 cities with a month - on - month increase in new - home prices, and only Xining had a month - on - month increase in second - hand home prices [2]. - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted from export, deleting 3 technology items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The restricted export of battery cathode material preparation technology was newly added [2]. 3.6. Industry Information - The financial regulatory authority strengthened the supervision of local asset management companies, clarifying prohibited business behaviors [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to formulate mandatory national standards for mobile power sources to set stricter technical standards [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched a special campaign to rectify prominent problems in live - streaming e - commerce [2]. - The 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement has been launched, with 55 varieties included in the procurement volume reporting scope, and new drugs are not included [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current external environment is more complex, and the "reciprocal tariff" policy increases global economic uncertainty. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for bond futures prices. However, the "anti-involution" policy drives some commodity prices higher, and the risk appetite in the short-term market increases, which may lead to greater fluctuations in Treasury bond futures prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2509 contract rose by 0.15%, and its trading volume decreased [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Short-term market interest rates generally increased. For instance, the SHIBOR 7-day rate rose by 3.1bp, the DR007 rate rose by 4.51bp, and the GC007 rate rose by 1.6bp [2]. Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key-term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped by 1.29bp to 1.66%, and the yield spread between long and short-term (10 - 2) Treasury bonds was 25.12bp [2]. - Overseas, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US rose by 7bp, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in Germany dropped by 3bp, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield in Japan rose by 1.4bp [2]. Macro News - On July 15, the central bank conducted 342.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net full-caliber injection of 173.5 billion yuan [3]. - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% [3]. - The Central Urban Work Conference was held from July 14 - 15, deploying seven key tasks for urban work [3]. - With the "white list" policy and the recovery of the real estate market, the debt - resolution work of real estate enterprises is progressing in an orderly manner. The decline in the funds available to real estate development enterprises has narrowed. However, real estate sales area and prices are still falling year - on - year, and greater efforts are needed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market [3]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. Traders predict that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September and cut rates nearly twice by the end of the year [3]. - NVIDIA will resume the sale of H20 chips in China and launch a new GPU for the Chinese market [3]. Industry Information - On July 15, most money market interest rates increased. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for the 1 - day variety rose by 10.6BP to 1.53%, hitting a new high in over a month [3]. - US Treasury bond yields rose collectively, mainly driven by factors such as the increase in risk - aversion sentiment due to Trump's promotion of reciprocal tariffs, higher - than - expected US CPI data in June, concerns about global government fiscal deficits, and tighter market liquidity [3]. Comments and Strategies - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan, and Shibor short - term varieties rose collectively. The market liquidity tightened. To maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, a consecutive second - month increase in roll - over operations [3]. - Economic data in June showed that industrial added value, exports, and financial data were better than expected, while consumption and investment growth rates declined year - on - year. The decline in real estate investment growth rate widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to decline month - on - month. The expectation of the introduction of real estate - stabilizing policies increased [3].

Macroeconomic and Strategic Research - In June 2025, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in May, while imports rose by 1.1%, recovering from a 3.4% decline in the previous month [2] - The trade surplus reached USD 114.77 billion, compared to USD 103.22 billion in May [2] - The rebound in export growth is attributed to the delayed effects of the US-China tariff suspension and ongoing demand from ASEAN countries, although future costs may rise due to new US-Vietnam tariff agreements [2] - The global manufacturing PMI returned above the neutral line, providing support for Chinese exports, with significant improvements noted in South Korea's export growth [2] - Import growth was driven by strong demand for high-end manufacturing products, particularly semiconductors, contributing approximately 1.8 percentage points to the overall import growth [3] - Export pressures are expected to emerge by the end of Q3 2025, influenced by US tariff policies and potential demand shifts [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance guidance rates for credit bonds mostly declined, with an overall change of -9 basis points to 0 basis points [4] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance while other types experienced growth [5] - The secondary market saw a decrease in transaction volume, with corporate bonds and company bonds increasing while medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds decreased [5] - Credit spreads for short-term and corporate bonds narrowed, indicating a generally low historical spread level, particularly for AAA-rated five-year bonds [5] - The report suggests a cautious approach to investing in credit bonds, emphasizing the importance of monitoring interest rate trends and individual bond coupon values [5] Industry Research - The metal industry faces increased uncertainty due to tariffs, with notable developments including Trump's proposed 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, and a 17% year-on-year increase in copper production from Codelco [7] - The steel sector shows manageable inventory levels and limited supply-demand conflicts, with raw material prices rebounding, supporting price stability [8] - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply and low inventory, compounded by US tariff policies creating trade uncertainties [8] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to macroeconomic uncertainties and subdued downstream demand during the off-season [8] - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future movements dependent on economic data and geopolitical developments [8] - The lithium market is experiencing downward pressure from oversupply, despite some support from "anti-involution" sentiments [8] - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "positive" rating for non-ferrous metals, recommending increased holdings in specific companies [9]

15日，国新办就2025年上半年国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在会上表示，上半年，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好，生产需求稳定增长，就 业形势总体稳定，居民收入继续增加，新动能成长壮大，高质量发展取得新进展，社会大局保持稳定。 经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变 盛来运表示，上半年一个很突出的特点就是经济运行"稳"。增长稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%， 增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点。调查失业率总体平稳，今年以来，月度调查失业率基本在 5.0%—5.4%区间波动。物价低位运行，基本平稳。国际收支基本平衡，货物贸易进出口创同期新高， 外汇储备维持在3.2万亿美元以上。从以上四大宏观指标看，经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变。 视频：国家统计局：上半年GDP同比增长5.3%来源：中国新闻网 下半年中国经济保持稳定增长有支撑 盛来运称，不少国际机构还有一些投行对全球经济预测发表展望报告，多数机构都是预测下半年全球经 济放缓，但这些机构大多不约而同调高了中国经济增长的预期。这显示了国际机构和投行对中国经济发 展的信心。从下半年情况看，尽管外部环境还有不少不确定性，内部结构调整的压力较大。但 ...

Economic Overview - China's economy is expected to grow at over 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies like the old-for-new consumption initiative and proactive fiscal measures[2] - The economy is projected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory throughout the year, with growth pressures in the second half due to high base effects and external factors[2][9] Key Challenges - The actual tariff rate imposed by the US on China is approximately 40%, which may lead to diminishing export resilience as previous "rush to export" effects fade[10] - Real estate prices are declining, impacting consumer wealth and spending, with sales and investment in the sector showing negative growth since May[12] - Local government finances remain tight, with significant reliance on fiscal support to sustain growth, potentially limiting resources for the second half of the year[13] Policy Recommendations - Accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to stimulate investment and consumption[3] - Optimize the old-for-new consumption policy to include the service sector, enhancing its effectiveness[3] - Implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a central real estate stabilization fund[17] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - Fiscal policy will be a primary focus, with an emphasis on increasing spending to counteract external demand pressures[15] - The government plans to issue approximately 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for the year, with 5 trillion yuan utilized in the first half and an estimated 5.5 trillion yuan for the second half[13] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was only 0.1% in June 2025, indicating low inflation, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months[14] - The divergence between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment may hinder economic recovery, necessitating stronger macroeconomic controls to promote reasonable price increases[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a new consumption-boosting plan introduced by Beijing, while both new and second-hand housing transactions have shown a month-on-month decline [1][8] - The real estate sector has outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 5.3% [5][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.12%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.82%, indicating strong sector performance [5][13] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of July 4-10, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 25,620 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% but a month-on-month decline of 36%. The total transaction area was 2.092 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month-on-month decrease of 54.2% [6][20] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,990 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 10% and a month-on-month decline of 6.7%. The total transaction area was 1.692 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [6][38] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.848 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a depletion cycle of 142.6 weeks [6][51] 3. Company News - China Merchants Shekou reported a signed sales area of 695,000 square meters and a sales amount of 21.748 billion yuan in June 2025. For the first half of 2025, the cumulative signed sales area was 3.35 million square meters, with a total sales amount of 88.894 billion yuan [17][19] - Gemdale Group announced a signed area of 262,000 square meters in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 41.39%, with a signed amount of 3.1 billion yuan, down 53.24% year-on-year [17][19] - Huaxia Happiness expects a net profit loss of between 5.5 billion and 7.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 4.849 billion yuan in the same period last year [18][19]