Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Real Estate - **Market Performance**: The real estate market in 2025 is expected to see a decline in sales area, sales amount, land acquisition area, and new starts by approximately 10%, 12%, 12%, and 20% respectively, with real estate development investment decreasing by about 15% [1][3][4] - **Quarterly Expectations**: The fourth quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show poor data, but there may be improvements in the first quarter of 2026 due to the resilience of the market, stabilizing around 2 trillion [1][4] - **Price Trends**: New home prices in first and second-tier cities are expected to continue rising, while second-hand home prices will depend on the balance of supply and demand [1][4] Risks in the Real Estate Sector - **Key Risks**: The industry faces three main risks: delivery risk, systemic financial risk, and local debt risk. Most large real estate companies have resolved or can control their debt issues, with only a few, like Evergrande, still needing attention [1][5] Construction Industry Insights - **Investment Trends**: Narrow infrastructure investment saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6% in September 2025, marking the third consecutive month of negative growth, indicating that upcoming quarterly results may not meet expectations [1][6][7] - **Future Outlook**: Without unexpected policy support, infrastructure investment growth may continue to remain negative over the next six months [8][11] Manufacturing and Real Estate Investment - **Performance Metrics**: Both manufacturing and real estate investments are underperforming, with manufacturing down 1.9% year-on-year in September and real estate investment down 21.3%, indicating significant economic pressure [1][9] Building Materials Sector - **Current Status**: The building materials industry is also facing challenges, with cement production down 8.4% year-on-year in September and an expected cumulative decline of about 5.2% for the year [1][10] - **Future Expectations**: There is a need for policy support to improve demand in the building materials sector [10] Stock Recommendations - **Consumer Building Materials Stocks**: These stocks are worth attention due to the low environment and the necessity for upward policy support. Leading companies have moved away from dependence on real estate and are entering a moderate growth phase [2][13] - **Promising Companies**: Companies like Three Trees, Henkel Group, and Oriental Yuhong have shown signs of upward growth, driven by various strategic initiatives [14] - **Watchlist Companies**: Companies such as Weixing, Rabbit Baby, and Beixin are still worth monitoring despite not yet proving an upward growth point [15] Cement Industry Challenges and Opportunities - **Market Conditions**: The cement industry is currently facing low domestic demand, but there are opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, and strong demand in western infrastructure projects [17] Glass Industry Recommendations - **Recommended Stocks**: Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are recommended due to their cost advantages and ability to maintain profitability at the industry cycle's bottom [18] Fiberglass Sector Outlook - **Future Prospects**: The fiberglass sector has an optimistic outlook, with strong demand in the electronic cloth segment and leading companies like China Jushi, Jushi Group, and Zhongcai Technology being highlighted as key recommendations [19]

Core Viewpoint - Achieving a 5% GDP growth target for the year is not difficult, but the challenge lies in bridging the gap between micro perceptions and macro statistics, with a growth that is felt by micro entities being more meaningful in the long term [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, GDP grew by 5.2%, accelerating by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year and the same period last year, respectively [2]. - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points, which is a 9% increase compared to the previous year [4]. - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure in the third quarter was 56.6%, further highlighting its role in economic growth [4]. Group 2: Challenges in Consumption Growth - Despite being the main driver of economic growth, consumption faces challenges, including a decline in the growth rate of social retail sales, which fell to 3.0% in September [9]. - The overall low growth of CPI indicates that consumer prices are not rising significantly, which may affect consumption [9]. - Factors contributing to insufficient consumption include a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market, increased employment pressure, and intensified competition leading to price reductions [10][11]. Group 3: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and investment efficiency, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a key task for 2025 [5]. - A series of macroeconomic policies are expected to be implemented to stimulate consumption, including measures to promote income growth and stabilize the real estate market [12]. - Experts predict that achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5% is likely, with the fourth quarter GDP growth expected to stabilize within a reasonable range [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply is expected to be ample, demand to decline, and prices to have limited upside potential. However, if there is an interest - rate cut expectation, prices may rebound slightly. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures contracts on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, it is expected to stop falling and stabilize. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, real - estate may continue to drag down glass demand. It is recommended to buy glass futures contracts on dips in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash主力合约收盘价is 1219 yuan/ton (up 10), glass主力合约收盘价is 1091 yuan/ton (down 4), and the price difference between soda ash and glass is 128 yuan/ton (up 14) [2]. - Soda ash主力合约持仓量is 1369450 lots (down 36196), glass主力合约持仓量is 1624204 lots (up 65583) [2]. - Soda ash前20名净持仓is - 267165 (up 2374), glass前20名净持仓is - 196704 (up 40447) [2]. - Soda ash交易所仓单is 10773 tons (up 1490), glass交易所仓单is 455 tons (unchanged) [2]. - Soda ash基差is - 73 yuan/ton (down 1), glass基差is - 19 yuan/ton (down 12) [2]. - The price difference between January and May glass contracts is - 140 (down 4), and that of soda ash contracts is - 85 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1162 yuan/ton (up 2), Central China heavy soda ash price is 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - East China light soda ash price is 1250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Central China light soda ash price is 1145 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Shahe glass price is 1112 yuan/ton (down 4), Central China glass price is 1180 yuan/ton (down 20) [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash装置开工率is 84.93% (down 3.48), float glass企业开工率is 76.35% (up 0.34) [2]. - Glass在产产能is 16.12 million tons/year (up 0.05), glass在产生产线条数is 226 (up 1) [2]. - Soda ash企业库存is 171.07 million tons (up 1.02), glass企业库存is 6427.6 million heavy boxes (up 145.2) [2]. Downstream Situation - Real - estate新开工面积累计值is 39801.01 million square meters (up 4595.01), real - estate竣工面积累计值is 27693.54 million square meters (up 2659.54) [2]. Industry News - Hunan Lengshuijiang Jinfuyuan's soda ash plant is shut down, with a light soda ash quote of 1400 yuan/ton [2]. - Jiangsu Kunshan Jingang's soda ash plant is operating normally, with a light soda ash ex - factory quote of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [2]. - Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant has restarted and is in the production - increasing stage, with a light soda ash quote of 1160 yuan/ton [2]. - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant is operating stably with stable prices [2]. - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 million tons/year soda ash plant is operating normally [2]. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year soda ash plant is operating at a reduced capacity of about 70% [2]. - Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 million tons/year soda ash plant has resumed production [2].

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - In September, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September reached 41,971 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 3,715.35 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with real estate development investment decreasing by 13.9% [2] Market Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,863.89 points, up 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.98% to 2,993.45 points [5] - The communication, coal, and electric equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 3.21%, 3.04%, and 1.54% respectively [5] - The market turnover was 17,514.91 billion yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day [6] Real Estate Sector - In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a mixed trend, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month decline of 0.3% [3][4] - The year-on-year decline in new residential prices in first-tier cities was 0.7%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [3][4] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with buyer sentiment still cautious, although there are signs of price stabilization due to ongoing policy support [4] Monetary Policy - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, unchanged since May [2] - The current low interest rates for both corporate and personal loans are expected to support economic stability [3] Future Outlook - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to provide insights into the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may influence market sentiment [1] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are expected to impact global trade and China's exports, necessitating continued efforts for economic stability and job security [3]

Core Insights - The provincial government is focusing on economic stability and growth, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development to contribute to the national economy [2] - There is a strong push to develop the sports economy and enhance leisure consumption through the promotion of quality sports events [3] Economic Performance - The overall economic performance in the first three quarters is stable with progress, and there is a need to implement major decisions from the central government [2] - Strategies include stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations while promoting industrial growth and supporting enterprises with high capacity utilization [2] Investment and Consumption - The government aims to expand consumption by increasing the supply of cultural tourism and sports resources, as well as enhancing services in areas like home care and childcare [2] - There is a focus on stabilizing and expanding investments, accelerating the completion of ongoing projects, and planning major projects to meet funding needs [2] Safety and Regulation - Emphasis is placed on enhancing safety management capabilities and ensuring stable safety production across various sectors, particularly in gas, electric bicycles, and crowded venues [3] - The government is committed to improving public trust and addressing grievances through targeted actions and better service delivery [3] Sports Economy Development - The government is implementing decisions to develop the sports economy, aiming to enhance the supply of quality sports events and create well-known event brands [3] - There is a focus on integrating sports events with consumer activities to drive high-quality development in the sports industry [3]

Core Insights - Longhua District achieved the highest new residential sales volume in Shenzhen with 4,977 units sold in the first half of 2025 [1] - The launch of Hongshan Huafu sold out within an hour, indicating strong market demand [1] - The district's housing authority has actively responded to new policies and organized promotional events to stimulate the market [1] Sales Performance - The "Golden Autumn Property Fair" was held on September 27, featuring multiple developers offering promotional discounts and policy consultations [1] - By the end of the event, 34 contracts were signed, with nearly 500 potential buyers showing interest [1] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, the sales of Pengchen Yunzhu exceeded 120 units, with a total transaction value surpassing 800 million [1] Secondary Market Activity - The second-hand housing market in Longhua has also seen significant growth, with 403 units sold by the end of September, a 26.7% increase month-over-month [1] - The total transaction area for second-hand homes reached 41,006 square meters, reflecting a 23.0% month-over-month increase [1] Market Expansion Efforts - Longhua District's housing authority is actively participating in the "Vibrant Shenzhen · Livable Future" promotional activities to showcase the district's livability in Northeast China [2]

Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI for January to September showed a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time in 19 months that it returned to above 1% [1] Food Prices - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year in September, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Cumulative food price change for the first nine months was -1.8%, while non-food items saw a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - Significant declines in specific food items included pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), eggs (-13.5%), and fresh fruits (-4.2%) in September [2] Gold Prices - In contrast, gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - International gold prices increased from approximately $3,500 per ounce at the beginning of September to nearly $3,800 per ounce by the end of the month [3] - Gold investment demand remained strong, with sales of gold bars and coins experiencing a 44% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [3][4] Market Demand and Economic Policy - The low CPI indicates a persistent issue of oversupply in the macroeconomic landscape, necessitating increased counter-cyclical policy measures [2][5] - The government aims for a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004 [5] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 1127.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.91% as of the report date [1] Supply Side - According to Hualian Futures, last week saw the ignition or maintenance of glass production lines, leading to a slight increase in industry capacity utilization and weekly supply compared to the previous period [1] - The market is facing a significant accumulation of manufacturer inventory due to the holiday period, with factory inventory increasing by 3.469 million weight boxes as of October 9, particularly in the North China and Central China regions [1] Demand Side - Ruida Futures noted that the real estate sales performance during the National Day holiday was generally good, with a significant increase in visit and subscription volumes for core city properties compared to before the holiday [1] - However, while there are signs of stabilization in the market, overall housing prices remain stable in first-tier cities, and other cities have not shown positive performance, suggesting that the signs of demand stabilization may not be sustainable [1] Inventory Situation - New Lake Futures reported that the holiday impact has led to a primary accumulation of factory inventory, indicating a challenging inventory situation for manufacturers [1] Market Outlook - According to New Century Futures, there is no significant improvement in the short-term supply-demand balance for glass, with continued accumulation of manufacturer inventory and a downward trend in real estate completions affecting demand prospects [1] - The expectation of capacity clearance prior to the holiday stimulated replenishment demand in the mid and downstream sectors, but this may have overstretched the replenishment momentum, leading to a forecast of continued weak fluctuations in the market [1]

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rate have shown a marginal decline due to the holiday disruptions[2] - The apparent demand for steel has decreased, while the operating rate for polyester in textiles has increased[2] - The operating rates for automotive tires have decreased, indicating seasonal fluctuations[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities have decreased by 28.7% year-on-year as of October 10, influenced by the holiday and base effects[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has dropped by 0.83% month-on-month as of September 29[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles increased by 6% year-on-year in September, while major home appliance retail sales fell by 6.7%[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 3% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 31.6%[2] - The total number of people moving across regions during the holiday reached 2.432 billion, a historical high, with a daily average of 304 million, up 6.2% year-on-year[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 6.9%[2] - Export container freight rates have shown a decline of 6.7% week-on-week, although rates from Shanghai and Ningbo have increased since the end of September[2] Price Trends - The South China black raw materials index rose by 1.8%, while the futures price of rebar increased by 1%[2] - The futures price of coking coal rose by 3.1%, while the spot price in Shanxi fell by 1.1%[2]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The average daily signed area for second-hand houses is higher than the same period in 2020, while both new and second-hand house signed areas show significant year-on-year declines [1][18]. - The report highlights that the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread is a key observation point for total demand stabilization in both new and second-hand housing markets [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonable valuation ranges for investment, suggesting that the adjusted price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.2 times, while the top five real estate companies have an average adjusted PB of about 0.7 times [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in new housing signed area has expanded, with the current levels being lower than the past four years [8][10]. - The signed area for new houses in sample cities shows a significant year-on-year decrease of 40% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The year-on-year signed area for second-hand houses has turned negative, with a decline of 49% compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The average viewing numbers for second-hand houses in 12 sample cities have decreased by 3.3% month-on-month, indicating a contraction in market activity [4][42]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to September 2025 shows a year-on-year decline of 9%, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [21]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices, indicating a tightening market [4][50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the turnover cycle for unsold properties have increased compared to July, suggesting a growing backlog in the market [31][34]. - The liquidity outlook suggests a tightening in macro-level liquidity, which may impact market conditions moving forward [48].