Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remains in a narrow - range oscillation. Factors such as "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures that may have short - term impacts on the bond market sentiment, but the overall situation of the bond market has not changed. It is recommended to maintain a portfolio of 3 - year policy financial bonds + 10 - year + 4 - 5 - year credit bonds [2][3][57] - The "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are beneficial for improving resource allocation efficiency, but their short - term impact on investment demand may be limited. The long - term impact on the economy needs to be further observed [3][38][54] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. The central bank maintains relative looseness within the established framework, and the unfreezing of collateral bonds has limited benefits - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%. The increase in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations was basically in line with high - frequency data, which might be the core factor for the lower - than - expected excess reserve ratio [6] - The central bank's short - term motivation to further relax the aggregate policy has weakened, but its concern about the bond investment risks of small and medium - sized banks has eased, and the constraint of long - term interest rates on liquidity loosening has decreased [13] - The actual capital situation was affected by the tax period. The central bank increased its net investment, and the capital tightened first and then loosened slightly. The short - term capital factor may not drive the interest rate to a new low [14][16] - The central bank's proposed cancellation of the freezing of collateral bonds for bond repurchases may indicate a consideration to restart bond purchases. The expectation of bond purchases may have a limited positive impact on the short - end, but it is unlikely to drive the interest rate to a new low in the short term [16][18] II. Domestic demand weakened significantly in June, but the improvement of financial data boosted macro - expectations - In June, the industrial added - value growth rate reached 6.8%, driven by the increase in export delivery value. However, the Q2 GDP growth rate dropped to 5.2% due to the negative growth of the construction industry [19] - From the demand side, except for the improvement of external demand driven by export rush, consumption and investment growth declined significantly in June. The pressure on external demand may further emerge after July, and consumption growth may face pressure without further policy support [25][29] - In June, fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative, and real - estate sales declined. The sustainability of the rebound in real - estate new construction and completion needs to be observed [32] - In June, financial data was relatively strong. The increase in social financing scale and credit was mainly due to government bond financing and enterprise short - term loans, which may be affected by the strict payment terms of central and state - owned enterprises. This has boosted the expectation of economic improvement and affected the bond market sentiment [35][37][38] III. "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are part of the structural reform, and their short - term impact should not be overestimated - "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures to improve resource allocation efficiency. Strict payment terms are beneficial for accelerating the cash recovery of upstream and mid - stream enterprises, but may not significantly boost investment demand in the short term [3][38][47] - The "anti - involution" mainly restricts local government behavior. The current over - capacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors, and it is more difficult to clear the over - capacity through administrative orders. Without demand - side support, its impact on inflation may take longer to appear [50][51][54] - The implementation of "anti - involution" needs to be further observed, as the central bank's policy on credit has changed between 2024 and 2025 [56] IV. The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. Be patient and wait for the break of the oscillation pattern - The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. The narrow interest - rate spread space makes it difficult for the slowdown of economic momentum to prompt the central bank to implement a new round of loosening policies. The long - term interest rate remains in a narrow - range oscillation [57] - If the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting in late July are limited, the A - share market may enter a correction, and the downward pressure on the fundamentals may further appear, which may drive a qualitative change in the bond market. It is recommended to switch from non - active bonds to active bonds and maintain the current bond portfolio [57][58]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is also rising. The main driving forces for the stock index rebound are loose liquidity and policy - favorable expectations. The anti - involution policy is beneficial to relevant industries, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the risk appetite of the technology sector. In the short term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the policy - end favorable expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day. The central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open - market operation recently has led to loose market liquidity, which supports the recovery of market risk appetite [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend, similar to the second half of 2014, driven by liquidity and policy easing factors [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market in the second half of 2014 and from April to July 2020 was primarily driven by liquidity and policy easing, with a weak economic backdrop but rising stock indices [2] - The current market is expected to continue a structural slow bull trend, with short-term oscillations leaning towards strength [3] - Economic recovery remains weak, with pressures on exports and a potential decline in real estate investment, while corporate earnings are showing signs of recovery [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the current environment, sectors such as media, building materials, agriculture, computer, and home appliances are showing superior mid-year profit growth [1] - Growth sectors like media, automotive, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, and new energy, along with blue-chip sectors such as agriculture, non-bank financials, food and beverage, and home appliances, are considered to have high cost-performance ratios [1][3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Short-term investment strategy suggests a balanced allocation between technology growth and undervalued blue-chip stocks, focusing on sectors with upward policy and industry trends [1][3] - In July and August, the market style is expected to be balanced, with growth potentially outperforming value in August due to economic recovery trends and continued liquidity [4]

Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]

Group 1 - The market experienced significant volatility with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500 points, reaching a high of 3555 points before retreating to 3510 points due to a sell-off in major bank stocks [3][4] - There was a strategic shift in capital flow, with over 3 billion yuan net inflow into technology growth sectors like computers and non-bank financials, while previously popular sectors like electronics and power equipment saw significant outflows [3] - Historical patterns indicate that the Shanghai Composite Index has previously surged after breaking 3500 points, with past bull markets reaching highs of 6124 points in 2007 and 5178 points in 2015, suggesting a potential for broad market recovery [3] Group 2 - Key signals to watch for the upcoming market trend include the ability of the 3500-point level to hold and the direction of main capital flows, with a notable increase in foreign investment and public fund product launches in A-shares [4] - The market's trading volume increased to 1.7 trillion yuan, indicating strong market support, and if the index can maintain above 3500 points, it may signal a continuation of the bullish trend [4] - The monetary policy outlook for 2025 suggests a trend towards liquidity easing, with expectations of interest rate cuts, which could provide a favorable environment for investment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hongta Securities is the first listed brokerage to pre-disclose its operating data for the first half of 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 651 million to 696 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 55% [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - Hongta Securities anticipates a net profit of 651 million to 696 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 202 million to 247 million yuan compared to the same period last year [5]. - The company expects a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses to be between 634 million and 679 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50% [5]. - The improvement in performance is attributed to the company's focus on differentiated and specialized development, enhancing asset allocation effectiveness, and optimizing its asset-liability structure [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The brokerage sector has seen increased activity since June, with Hongta Securities' stock rising by 6.33% on July 10, while the Wind brokerage index increased by 1.21% [3]. - The overall brokerage sector is expected to maintain growth momentum in the first half of 2025, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies and increased trading volumes [7][10]. - The average daily trading volume in the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 61% year-on-year to 1.39 trillion yuan, with financing scale increasing by 26.8% [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The brokerage sector is characterized as a "bull market barometer," indicating a potential increase in market risk appetite [12]. - Analysts suggest that the current technical patterns of brokerage ETFs and individual stocks resemble those seen before the 2014 bull market [13]. - The sector's valuation is significantly below historical averages, with leading brokerages like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities showing low price-to-book ratios while experiencing high profit growth [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the liquidity of the CSI 300 ETF has shown significant growth, with a recent increase in scale by 9.52 billion yuan over the past two weeks and a daily average transaction volume of 1.194 billion yuan over the past year [2] - As of July 9, 2025, the net value of the CSI 300 ETF has increased by 19.17% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 25.64% and an average monthly return of 4.63% during rising months [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, and others, collectively accounting for 22.76% of the index [2] Group 2 - International institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 5.2% growth for the first half of this year [4] - Minsheng Securities anticipates continued liquidity easing in July due to various factors, including lower fiscal pressure and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which may provide space for domestic easing [5] - Investors without stock accounts can consider low-positioning in A-share core assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the psychological barrier of 3500 points, driven by internal factors despite a challenging external environment [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3500 points for the first time in eight months, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64% [2]. - Over 3000 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced gains, with sectors such as childcare, robotics, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals leading the charge [1][2]. Sector Highlights - Robotics stocks surged, with Zhongdali gaining a limit-up and Jingpin Special Equipment rising over 19%. A major acquisition announcement involving Zhongyuan Robotics and Zhongwei New Materials contributed to this [2]. - The photovoltaic industry also saw a resurgence, with stocks like Tuori New Energy and Yijing Photovoltaic hitting their daily limits. The price of silicon materials has notably increased, indicating a positive response to market conditions [2]. - AI application stocks experienced a rally, with companies like Huanrui Century and Zhongwen Online seeing significant gains, driven by advancements in AI tools like ChatGPT [2]. Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, marking a turnaround after four months of decline, primarily due to a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [3]. - Major international financial institutions have raised their forecasts for China's GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 5.2% growth rate for the first half of the year [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance due to ample liquidity, with the central bank's actions stabilizing market sentiment [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment resembles that of late 2014, with a potential catalyst needed to ignite further growth, possibly from unexpected policy changes or technological advancements [5].

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are showing significant performance, driven by liquidity and market conditions, with the 中证2000增强 ETF leading in inflows and returns this year [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The 中证2000增强 ETF (159552) has increased by 1.71% as of 14:12 on July 8, with a 10-day gain of 5.89% and a 20-day gain of 7.47%, totaling a year-to-date increase of 32.54% [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of over 10 million, marking seven consecutive days of inflows, totaling over 61 million, with a year-to-date growth in scale of 746.75% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Research from 华安证券 indicates that from 2010 to 2024, the median elasticity coefficient for small-cap stocks is 1.73, compared to 1.52 for mid-cap and 0.92 for large-cap stocks, suggesting that small-cap stocks outperform during market uptrends [1] - Recent months have seen significant gains in sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have favored small-cap stocks [1] - The central bank's ongoing liquidity easing signals and decreasing market funding costs have made small-cap stocks more sensitive to liquidity changes, contributing to their rise [1] - Historical data shows that during periods of ample liquidity, small-cap stocks tend to achieve more pronounced excess returns [1] - Industry predictions suggest that the monetary policy package announced on May 7 is not the peak of easing, with continued policies expected in Q3 and Q4, indicating ongoing benefits for small-cap stocks [1]

Core Insights - The small-cap stocks continue to lead the market, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) experiencing a 722% increase in scale and approximately 32% returns year-to-date, making it a dual champion among broad-based ETFs [1][3] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has shown over 73% returns in the past year, with its scale and net value reaching historical highs throughout the year, demonstrating consistent and stable enhancement capabilities [3][5] Performance Comparison - Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI 300 index has risen by less than 1%, while the CSI 2000 has increased by 15%, highlighting a significant performance gap [5] - Historical data indicates that during market uptrends, small-cap stocks tend to outperform larger-cap stocks, with small-cap stocks having a median elasticity coefficient of 1.73 compared to 0.92 for large-cap stocks from 2010 to 2024 [5] Market Drivers - The strong performance of small-cap stocks this year is attributed to favorable market conditions, including significant rallies in February and April, and the recent performance of sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Continuous liquidity easing signals from the central bank have lowered market funding costs, making small-cap stocks more sensitive to liquidity changes, which has been a crucial factor in their rise [5] Future Outlook - The future performance of the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF will depend on two key indicators: the progress of mergers and acquisitions among small-cap companies and the earnings growth and recovery of small-cap indices in the upcoming semi-annual reports [6] - If these indicators are favorable, it could accelerate the small-cap stock market, potentially providing significant upside for the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF [6]