一、研究观点 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 22 日） | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 0.86%，报收 68.09 美分/磅，CF509 环比下降 0.8%，报收 14185 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 21871 手至 55.89 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15480 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 56 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15589 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 81 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心仍更多在于宏观层面，特朗 | | | | 普对美联储持续施压，美联储 7 月议息会议大概率按兵不动，9 月降息概率较大， | | | | 美元指数震荡走弱，关注是否会有超预期变动。国内市场方面，近期郑棉驱动逻辑 | | | | 转变较快。低库存现状未改，但上行驱动力度减弱，市场关注重心转移，主力合约 | | | | 持仓下降，9-1 价差开始回归。展望未来，我们认为短期郑棉下方有支撑，但新棉 | | | | 丰产预期较强且需求未见明 ...

周二(7月22日)亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅下跌，现报3391美元/盎司附近。现货黄金价格周一(7月21日)暴 涨逾1%，并触及五周高点，分析师指出，金价飙升的主要原因是美元与美债收益率重挫，而投资者对8 月1日关税谈判期限即将邻近感到不安。 现货黄金周一收盘暴涨47.09美元，涨幅1.41%，报3396.93美元/盎司。 美元与美债收益率大跌 由于贸易协议的不确定性，美元和美国国债收益率大幅下跌，周一黄金价格上涨超过1%。 追踪美元兑一篮子六种货币表现的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.64%，至97.83。 有关美国提早降息的说法正甚嚣尘上，美联储主席鲍威尔可能被替换、美联储官员组成可能重塑的说 法，让市场感到不安。 美国财政部长贝森特周一接受CNBC访问时表示，应全面检视美联储这个机构是否真正有效。他指出， 尽管市场存在许多对关税的"恐慌性言论"，但目前几乎没有显现任何通胀影响。 如何交易黄金? 美元指数走软，代表以美元计价的黄金对其他货币买家来说，变得相对划算。 10年期美国国债收益率重挫逾6.5个基点，至4.356%。美国实际收益率(通过从名义利率中减去通胀预期 计算得出)也大跌6个基点，至1.946%。 Ba ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货79620，基差-80，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：7月21日铜库存减100至122075吨，上期所铜库存较上周增3094吨至84556吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、美国全面关税超预期。 2、全球经济并不乐观， ...

周二（7月22日）亚市早盘，现货白银高位震荡，短线下跌触及38.73美元，多重利好因素共振，近期白 银走势表现尤为亮眼，银价自4月初以来持续在上升通道内运行，展现出较强的上行动能。 【要闻速递】 随着8月1日美国对全球贸易伙伴施加新关税的最后期限临近，市场的不确定性为白银提供了强劲的支 撑。投资者们正密切关注欧美贸易谈判的进展、欧盟可能采取的激烈反制措施，以及美联储货币政策的 潜在变化。在这样的背景下，白银作为避险资产的吸引力正在迅速升温。 从基本面看，白银当前的上涨动能主要受到以下因素驱动。首先，美元指数在周一交易时段表现疲软， 美元走弱直接降低了白银的购买成本，吸引买盘入场。其次，市场对全球经济不确定性的担忧持续存 在，特朗普的关税言论加剧了投资者对全球供应链的忧虑，而俄乌局势的持续紧张进一步推升了避险情 绪。这些因素共同增强了白银作为避险资产的吸引力。 动能指标进一步印证了短期的看涨倾向。相对强弱指数(RSI)已攀升至70附近，进入超买区域，显示买 方动能强劲。尽管RSI略显超买，但只要保持在60上方，短期结构仍偏多头。平均趋向指数(ADX)目前 为20，且呈上升趋势，暗示趋势动能可能进一步增强。若银价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美元回落，利好金价 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 市场消化美关税冲击后，内外宏 观经济回暖推升铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨夜美元指数持续回落，金价上行。纽约金再度站上 ...

Luna在信中写道： 2025年6月25日，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会作证时，关于美联储 的Eccles大楼的翻修问题， 在证词中做了几项实质性虚假陈述。（ 注：Luna这里具体指控鲍威尔在 Eccles大楼的奢华设施和维护状况方面做出虚假陈述。） 当地时间周一，据福克斯新闻数字报道， 美国佛罗里达州的共和党众议员Anna Paulina Luna发函美 国司法部，称美联储主席鲍威尔两次作伪证，对其提出刑事指控。 美国伪证罪最高可判处五年监禁， 并可能处以罚款。 上述事件正值美国保守派特朗普盟友持续要求在鲍威尔任期于2026年5月结束之前将其解职。 美国房贷行业媒体《Mortgage Professional》报道称，鲍威尔否认所有伪证指控，并已启动正式的监管 调查，以审查Eccles大楼翻修项目的成本问题。 美联储官网目前也新增了翻修项目的视频导览及计划说明。 白宫新闻秘书：特朗普没有解雇鲍威尔的计划 此外，在写给美国管理和预算办公室（OMB）主任Russell Vought的一封信中，鲍威尔表示，将该项 目成本从19亿美元提升到25亿美元的变化是微不足道的。然而，美国国会调查人 ...

Group 1 - Domestic GDP in Q2 showed resilience, with a slight decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, while nominal GDP growth decreased from 4.6% to 3.9% [1] - The economic data in June indicated a strong supply but weak demand, with industrial growth rebounding, retail sales growth slowing, and investment decline widening [1] - The market strategy for bonds showed a tightening followed by a loosening of liquidity around the tax period, with short-term bonds performing well while long-term bonds lacked direction [1] Group 2 - A-shares maintained a positive sentiment after surpassing 3500 points, with internal growth sectors rotating upward, and external risks from the tariff war diminishing [2] - The second quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, which may slow the pace of growth-stabilizing policies, but liquidity and risk appetite remain favorable for the market [2] - In the Hong Kong market, the inflow of southbound funds remained active, with high risk appetite expected to support strong performance in a liquidity-rich environment [2] Group 3 - Oil demand is expected to be weak in 2025, with continuous supply release putting downward pressure on oil prices, while geopolitical changes may cause short-term fluctuations [3] - Economic policy uncertainties from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are likely to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, although short-term volatility is expected [3]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 19.12 points, closing at 44323.07, a decline of 0.04% [2] - The Nasdaq increased by 78.51 points, closing at 20974.17, an increase of 0.38% [2] - The S&P 500 rose by 8.81 points, closing at 6305.60, an increase of 0.14% [2] - The European Stoxx 50 index fell by 16.25 points, closing at 5342.98, a decline of 0.30% [2] - The German DAX 30 index increased by 18.29 points, closing at 24307.80, an increase of 0.08% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 25.31 points, closing at 3559.79, an increase of 0.72% [2] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 168.48 points, closing at 24994.14, an increase of 0.68% [2] U.S. Trade and Economic Policy - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benset emphasized the importance of the quality of trade agreements over timing, indicating that the U.S. will not rush into a trade deal with China [3] - The U.S. is expected to hold talks with China soon, with a deadline for trade agreements set for August 1 [3] - The White House stated that President Trump has no plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but there is a need for interest rate cuts [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Benset called for a comprehensive institutional review of the Federal Reserve to enhance its credibility [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the recent tax and spending legislation will increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [4] - Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "deteriorating" due to increased policy risks and economic slowdown [5] Corporate Investments and Developments - Over 60 leading German companies announced a significant investment plan totaling €631 billion (approximately $680 billion) to revitalize the economy [6] - Neuralink successfully completed two surgeries in one day, with CEO Elon Musk stating that the brain-machine interface could change millions of lives [7] - Trump Media and Technology Group reported accumulating approximately $2 billion in Bitcoin and related assets, representing two-thirds of its liquid assets [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainty is rising in the short - term, with the dollar index expected to decline; the stock market is in a capital - driven market with abundant liquidity, and the bond market will remain volatile until substantial bullish factors such as interest rate cuts materialize [15][18][21]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, power coal prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but face seasonal pressure after August; the price of some metals and energy - chemical products is affected by supply - demand, policies, and other factors [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary said trade negotiations are progressing steadily. Gold prices have risen strongly, and the short - term trend is volatile, facing a directional choice [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The US Republican accused the Fed Chairman of perjury, and the White House said Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. The dollar index is expected to decline in the short - term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 7 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project started, and the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation. Before interest rate cuts and other substantial bullish factors, the bond market will remain volatile. It is recommended to sell long positions when the futures rebound and continue to allocate medium - term long positions at low prices [20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is approaching 1 million tons, and the excellent rate of US soybeans has slightly decreased. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile [22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased from July 1 - 20, while the production increased. It is not recommended to over - short palm oil. Wait for the price to fall and then consider long positions [24][25][28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased in June, and the net short position of ICE raw sugar decreased. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [29][30][32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily output of Indonesia's Dexin Steel exceeded 20,000 tons, and the investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. Steel prices are strong in the short - term, but risks should be vigilant after August [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The export of corn starch decreased significantly in June. Starch enterprises are expected to continue to operate at a loss or with low profits, and the opening rate is expected to remain low [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is strong. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to be volatile, waiting for changes in the supply side [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The auction volume of imported corn decreased on July 22. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions in new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% in June. The steam coal price is expected to remain high in the short - term, but seasonal pressure should be noted after August [41][42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. The long - term upward pressure on iron ore prices is limited, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [43][44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of Chinese photovoltaic modules decreased in June. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and the price is expected to run at a low level within the price limit [45][46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export of industrial silicon increased in June. The short - term industrial silicon is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [48][49]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The import of copper ore, scrap copper, and refined copper changed in June. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lifezone released a feasibility study report on its nickel project. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [55][56][57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene decreased in June, and Yichun Yinli will conduct maintenance. It is recommended to stop profiting from long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [58][60][62]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount on July 18, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased in June. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term [63][64][65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy and galvanized sheets increased, and the import of zinc concentrate increased in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the near - month spread [66][67][69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is insufficient upward driving force [70][71][72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Turkey will terminate the Iraq oil pipeline agreement in July 2026. The short - term crude oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally on July 21. It is difficult for the caustic soda price to continue rising [75][77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward space of the pulp price is limited due to unchanged supply - demand [79][80]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. The PVC price may have limited upward movement due to inventory accumulation [81]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased. It is recommended to wait and see as the asphalt price needs oil price as a driving force [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price increased slightly on July 21. The short - term PX price is expected to be volatile and strong [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA decreased significantly. The PTA price may be strong in the short - term following the domestic commodity market [85][86]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The export of urea increased in June. The urea price may be slightly strong, oscillating around 1700 [87][88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene increased. The short - term styrene price is affected by macro factors, and the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate and repair [89][90]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of bottle chips by going long at low prices [90][91]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased. It is risky to short - sell in the short - term, and wait for policy guidance [92][93]. 3.2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei increased on July 21. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [94].

谢尔曼表示，"我们持有大家都在谈论的相同交易，"该交易包括买入2年期国债和做空10年期国债。当 市场预期美联储更接近降息时，这种交易往往会受到青睐。 这种情况通常有利于两年期国债，后者对货币政策的变化特别敏感。与此同时，降息可能会引发通胀担 忧，推高长期收益率。 他表示，他持有这一头寸已有约10个月，赌的是收益率曲线将变陡。 智通财经APP获悉，双线资本的副首席投资官杰弗里·谢尔曼是支持一项债券交易的投资者之一，该交 易已成为对冲美国总统特朗普试图解雇美联储主席风险的首选方式。 但还有一种可能是，总统很快就会提名鲍威尔的继任者，投资者将开始更多地关注特朗普提名的任何 人，即使鲍威尔完成任期。 谢尔曼表示，"影子美联储"的想法将有助于交易。他在其Opportunistic Core Bond交易所交易基金中持有 这一头寸。 最近，由于经济的韧性限制了美联储放松政策的能力，这一交易大多停滞不前。但交易员们押注特朗普 选择的下一任主席更有可能按照他降息的意愿行事。 谢尔曼表示："市场将看穿鲍威尔的任期，认为新主席一上任就会降息。" 上周，有报道称特朗普即将寻求替换美联储鲍威尔，这一交易重新受到关注。鲍威尔的任期将于 ...