化工日报 | 2025-12-23 单边：中性。当前EG价格筑底阶段，但投产压力较大，随着港口库存的回升，场内货源流动性增加，1~2月累库 压力仍偏大，需要进一步减产平衡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 EG主港延续累库，供应回升下仍承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3735元/吨（较前一交易日变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.08%），EG华东市场现货价3615 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.28%），EG华东现货基差-4元/吨（环比+12元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-98美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-987 元/吨（环比-8元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.7万吨（环比-13.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨， 副港到港量3万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量2.7万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side dip - buying [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices rebounded, providing stronger cost - side support. The increase in oil prices drove up downstream energy and chemical products including BU. However, the asphalt market still faces significant upward resistance. The northern market has stronger bottom support due to the continuous release of winter storage demand, while the southern market is under pressure. The contradiction of oversupply in the southern region needs time to be resolved, and the risk of raw material tightening is a potential upward driver. The market has a mix of long and short factors, and a bottom - up rebound requires a clearer signal [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 22, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2995 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 2.57% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 217,171 lots, down 777 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 366,642 lots, up 37,421 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 2,850 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased slightly, while those in other regions remained generally stable. With the escalating geopolitical situation in South America and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers, concerns about raw material tightening have increased, and the discount of diluted asphalt has rebounded [1] - The northern market has a warmer atmosphere due to the continuous release of winter storage demand, but the southern spot market is under pressure as major refineries have released more low - priced resources recently, increasing competitive pressure and suppressing the futures market [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral stance, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side dip - buying [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2] - Cross - period: No strategy provided [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [2] - Options: No strategy provided [2] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly output (total, independent refineries, Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]

Group 1: Report Title and General Situation - The report is titled "New Energy and Non - Ferrous Metals Daily Report | December 23, 2025", stating that the sentiment of supply disruption in Indonesian nickel mines continues, and nickel and stainless steel maintain a rebound [1] Group 2: Nickel Variety Analysis Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,600 yuan/ton and closed at 121,260 yuan/ton, a change of 4.55% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 196,376 (-14,261) lots, and the open interest was 57,011 (18,484) lots. The futures showed a strong rebound with high opening and high closing, driven by the resonance of Indonesian production - cut expectations and capital sentiment. However, due to factors such as high inventory and off - season demand, the short - term rebound cannot change the long - term supply surplus pattern [2] - In the nickel ore market, new tenders have started, and the price of nickel ore has remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender of the northern Benguet mine has not yet had a deal. Considering the impact of rainy weather, the shipping efficiency is acceptable. Downstream factories' production plans remain unchanged, and most need to stock up before the Spring Festival, so the mentality of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore procurement may slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase II) has fallen by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 124,900 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. With the sharp rise in futures prices, downstream wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and trading is average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel are mostly stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by 100 yuan/ton to 6,700 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 38,922 (1,320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,550 (612) tons [3] Strategy - With high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy for unilateral trading is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trades [4] Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Analysis Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,487 (-107,409) lots, and the open interest was 108,021 (-4,171) lots. The futures showed characteristics of "passively following the rise, shrinking volume, and weak rebound", reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the fundamentals of stainless steel itself. In the short term, it may fluctuate with nickel prices, but in the long term, the supply - demand contradiction will still dominate the price [4] - With the strengthening of the futures market, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and they mainly purchase on demand. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,900 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,900 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 180 to 380 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 885.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - With low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless steel is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation state. The unilateral trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trades [6] Group 4: Other Information - The report provides 14 figures, including LME closing and spot prices, Shanghai nickel main contract closing and SMM spot prices, refined nickel import profits and losses, etc., with data sources mainly from SMM and MySteel [7] - The analysts of this report are Feng Fan, Chen Sijie, and Shi Cheng, and the contact person is Lin Yihang, along with their corresponding qualification numbers [37][39]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The supply - side increment continues to suppress the market price of propylene. The supply of propylene remains loose, the demand support is limited, and the cost - side support has weakened. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see until marginal device maintenance occurs [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene main contract closing price is 5647 yuan/ton (-48), East China spot price is 5925 yuan/ton (+0), North China spot price is 5890 yuan/ton (-25), East China basis is 278 yuan/ton (+48), and North China basis is 4 yuan/ton (+15) [1] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization rate is 74% (+0%), China CFR propylene - Japan CFR naphtha is 211 US dollars/ton (+4), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 53 US dollars/ton (+6) [1] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Propylene import profit is - 324 yuan/ton (-48) [1] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37% (-2.62%), production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (+5); epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 76% (+0%), production profit is - 276 yuan/ton (-30); n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 78% (+9%), production profit is 236 yuan/ton (+65); octanol capacity utilization rate is 82% (+5%), production profit is 487 yuan/ton (+18); acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is 343 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 81% (+0%), production profit is - 557 yuan/ton (+44); phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 76% (-4%), production profit is - 927 yuan/ton (+0) [1] V. Propylene Inventory - Propylene factory inventory is 46560 tons (+600) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas gasoline crack spreads are weakening due to the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the recovery of refinery operations in Europe and the US, reducing the support for pure benzene from overseas gasoline blending. Although the peak of pure benzene arrivals in China has passed, there is still some arrival pressure, and port inventories have further accumulated this week while downstream提货 remains weak. - For benzene ethylene, port inventories have risen again, the previous destocking cycle has ended, and it is gradually entering the pre - festival inventory accumulation cycle. Downstream production is in the off - season, with a decline in EPS and PS production starts and low - level consolidation in ABS production starts, and there is still pressure on the finished product inventories of EPS and ABS [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 134 yuan/ton (down 25), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 125 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Benzene ethylene: The main basis is 10 yuan/ton (down 88 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Benzene Ethylene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 132 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), FOB South Korea processing fee is 125 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 184.9 dollars/ton (up 1.0 dollars/ton). - Benzene ethylene: Non - integrated production profit is - 220 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Benzene Ethylene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 27.30 million tons (up 1.30 million tons). - Benzene ethylene: East China port inventory is 139,300 tons (up 4,600 tons), East China commercial inventory is 84,550 tons (up 2,250 tons), and the operating rate is 69.1% (up 0.8%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Benzene Ethylene Downstream - EPS: Production profit is 116 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 51.81% (down 1.96%). - PS: Production profit is 66 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.50% (down 3.80%). - ABS: Production profit is - 948 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 70.10% (down 0.43%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 350 yuan/ton (down 40), and the operating rate is 69.20% (down 5.37%). - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 927 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the phenol operating rate is 76.00% (down 3.50%). - Aniline: Production profit is 789 yuan/ton (up 178), and the operating rate is 61.35% (down 14.59%). - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1,018 yuan/ton (down 11), and the operating rate is 59.60% (up 0.40%) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The market situation of various agricultural products and energy commodities is complex. The production of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and its export volume shows different trends according to different institutions' data. The soybean production and export in the Americas are affected by weather and market demand. The domestic trading volume and inventory of agricultural products also show different changes, and the macro - economic situation at home and abroad has an impact on the market [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and price changes of multiple commodities are presented, including BMD's March palm oil futures (4016.00, up 2.07% the previous day and 0.73% overnight), ICE's March Brent crude oil futures (61.54, up 2.36% the previous day and 0.31% overnight), and NYMEX's February US crude oil futures (57.95, up 2.49% the previous day and 0.29% overnight) [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies are also provided, such as the US dollar index (98.29, down 0.42%), and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar (7.0572, up 0.03%) [1]. Spot Market Quotes - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil 2601, soybean oil 2605, and soybean meal 2605 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8420, with a basis of 110 and no change in basis overnight [2]. - The CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 149 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 444 dollars per ton [2]. Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - The weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil are favorable or continuously improving. There will be sporadic showers in some states before Tuesday, and the overall soil moisture is improving [3]. - In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, most areas have suitable soil humidity for soybean growth after a frontal passage brought widespread rainfall last weekend [3]. International Supply and Demand - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with a 6.26% decline in fresh fruit bunch yield per unit and a 0.17% decrease in oil extraction rate [5]. - Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 show different trends. AmSpec reported a 0.87% decrease compared to the same period last month, while SGS reported a 43.6% increase [5][6]. - The MPOC expects that the Malaysian palm oil market will stabilize in 2026, with exports increasing to 16.2 million tons and production growing moderately to 19.7 million tons [6]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 13.4% month - on - month to 1.748 million tons [7]. - USDA data shows that the US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 18, 2025, was 870,199 tons, in line with expectations [7]. - USDA export sales reports for the week ending December 4 show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil have different export sales and shipment situations. For example, US soybean export sales increased by 40% compared to the previous week, and the export shipment increased by 33% [8]. - Analysts expect that in the week ending December 11, US soybean export sales will net increase by 1.8 - 2.9 million tons, soybean meal by 275,000 - 550,000 tons, and soybean oil by 500 - 24,000 tons [9][10]. - As of December 20, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.6%, and AgRural expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 180.4 million tons [10]. - Brazil exported 2,442,367.61 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of December, with an average daily export volume 70% higher than that of the whole month of December last year [11]. - The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline on Monday, with all ship - type freight indices weakening [11]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 22, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 68,700 tons, a 304% increase from the previous trading day [13]. - On December 22, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased by 40,600 tons compared to the previous day, and the overall oil mill operating rate was 55.88%, a 0.16% decrease from the previous day [13]. - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 700,000 tons, a 7.25% increase from the previous week, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a 1.22% decrease from the previous week [13]. - China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a 52.25% month - on - month increase; soybean imports were 8.10736476 million tons, a 14.50% month - on - month decrease [14]. - On December 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased slightly compared to last Friday [16]. Macroeconomic News International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1% [18]. - The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index in November was - 0.21, lower than the expected - 0.17 [18]. - A former Bank of Japan board member said that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times to 1.5% during the remaining term of Governor Ueda Kazuo until early 2028 [18]. Domestic News - On December 22, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0572, up 22 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - On December 22, the People's Bank of China conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [20]. Market Capital Flow On December 22, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 17.854 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 17.605 billion yuan into the commodity futures market and a net outflow of 14 million yuan from stock index futures and 30 million yuan from treasury bond futures [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA/PX market remains strong as the US is in the process of aromatics stockpiling. From December 1st to 20th, South Korea exported 0.43 tons of MX, 4.5 tons of PX, and 1.48 tons of toluene to the US [1]. - Crude oil has rebounded due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, with Venezuela becoming a short - term market focus. However, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices in Q1 next year. Near - term market liquidity may be affected by overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year [2]. - PX: The PXN was $335/ton (a $30.01/ton increase from the previous period). PX units are operating stably. With good expectations for the first half of next year, PXN has risen significantly. Even if there are fluctuations in the reformer start - up of some factories, PX production can still be effectively maintained. The monthly spread has strengthened recently, and there are many PX maintenance plans in Q2 next year, with positive long - term expectations. The strong polyester start - up rate supports PXN. In the gasoline blending aspect, gasoline cracking has shown no obvious improvement, but the US has started aromatics stockpiling [2]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 14 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 144 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price is 306 yuan/ton (a 27 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Downstream raw material inventories have reached a low level, and the replenishment demand of polyester factories has increased significantly, driving the spot basis to strengthen. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and the cancellation of India's BIS has boosted PTA export demand. With the support of polyester load, the December balance sheet shows inventory reduction, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than previously expected. In the long run, as the period of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [3]. - Demand: The polyester start - up rate is 91.1% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). The weaving load has been declining rapidly recently. Since the end of November, domestic trade orders have weakened rapidly, and grey fabric inventories have started to accumulate rapidly. Although samples for spring - summer and foreign trade orders for next year have been made, large - scale orders have not been placed yet. It is expected that the start - up rate will decline more rapidly from late December. The polyester load remains strong for now, with increasing pressure on filament profits but acceptable inventory pressure. After the inventory of bottle - chip factories decreased, their load has rebounded. In the short term, the polyester load is expected to remain stable at around 91%, and a decline is expected around January [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 142 yuan/ton (a 32 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The fundamentals of direct - spun polyester staple fiber have not changed much, with low inventory. As raw material prices rise rapidly, the processing margin is under pressure. In terms of demand, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn are average, with a slight decline in load and a slight increase in inventory [4]. - PR: The spot processing fee for polyester bottle - chips is 423 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Polyester bottle - chip factories have raised prices following raw materials, and the overall processing margin has been compressed to below 500 yuan. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chip factories has remained unchanged, but as their inventory has declined, the load has rebounded. Additionally, a new 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in Shandong Fuhai has started production. In the future, bottle - chip supply may increase, and the short - term processing margin for polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, with market prices following raw material fluctuations [4]. - Strategy: For PX/PTA/PF/PR, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended. In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and the risk of price retracement due to capital reduction should be watched. For PX, there are many maintenance plans in Q2 next year, with positive long - term expectations, and the strong polyester start - up rate supports PXN. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, with inventory reduction in December and no inventory accumulation pressure in January, and PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the long run. For PF, the load is high, and factory inventory is low. At low - price stages, downstream buyers will make appropriate purchases, but due to few orders from downstream yarn mills, there is no strong willingness for large - scale inventory building or chasing high prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate. For PR, although the inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased due to increased recent transactions, supply is expected to increase, and the processing margin for polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, with market prices following raw material fluctuations [5]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided - Cross - period: A long position in the PTA and PX 5 - 9 spread is recommended [6] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and cross - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][23] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [49][51][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [68][72][77] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [90][92][97]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-23 散单成交下滑 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-22，LME铅现货升水为-45.23美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16825 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至60.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至16925元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16850元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9825元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10025元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-22，沪铅主力合约开于16970元/吨，收于16920元/吨，较前一交易日变化40元/吨，全天交易日 成交49244手，较前一交易日变化-7217手，全天交易日持仓59586手，手较前一交易日变化-2591手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17030元/吨，最低点达到16890元/吨。夜盘 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-23 供强需弱格局延续，拖累价格下行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6240元/吨（-80），PP主力合约收盘价为6119元/吨（-94），LL华北现货为6250 元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6150元/吨（-60），LL华北基差为10元/吨（-20），LL 华东基差为160元/吨（+80）， PP华东基差为31元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为61.6元/吨（-57.7），PP油制生产利润为-368.4元/吨（-57.7），PDH制PP生产利润 为-629.8元/吨（+48.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-131.8元/吨（-8.2），PP进口利润为-215.8元/吨（+1.8），PP出口利润为-13.4美元/吨（-0.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market shows a differentiated pattern of "scarce high - quality beans and pressured ordinary grains." The scarcity of high - quality soybeans supports firm prices, while the demand side is cautious. The key variable affecting the price is the policy auction [3] - The domestic peanut supply is abundant, with slow inventory digestion in some intermediate links. The demand side's purchase price is stable, and attention should be paid to the actual release of festival stocking demand [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Topics Soybean Analysis Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soy - bean 2605 contract was 4105.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan/ton (+1.31%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 95, down 53 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast farmers have strong reluctance to sell, and the actual available grain sources are tight. After the subsequent large - scale release of old soybeans by Sinograin for auction, the spot price may face downward pressure [1][2] Market Information - Spot prices in various regions in Heilongjiang: Most remained flat, with prices in Heihe Nenjiang and Suihua Hailun rising [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Analysis Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7962.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8055.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton (-0.11%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 1162.00, up 12.00 (-1.02%) month - on - month [3] Market Information - The national average price of general - quality peanuts was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. Oil mills' contract purchase prices for oil - used peanuts were basically stable [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with the risk of weakening demand [6]