塑料产业日报 2025-11-04 ，昨日国际油价小幅收涨。短期L2601预计震荡走势，技术上关注6830附近支撑与7040附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6879 | -9 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6879 | -9 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6959 | -8 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7005 | -15 | | | 成交量(日,手) ...

免责声明 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/11/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1253.00 | -31.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1729.00 | -42.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 934368.00 | -20528.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 49440.00 | -815.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -71960.00 | -9746.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5614.00 | -81.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 58.50 | -4.50↓ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 141.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 900.00 | +400.00↑ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 2070.00 | 0.00 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the latest market information for agricultural products and energy commodities, including overnight and spot market prices, important fundamental data, macro - economic news, and capital flow trends. It also analyzes the supply - demand situation from both international and domestic perspectives. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are provided. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4132.00, with a previous day's decline of 2.14% and an overnight increase of 0.41% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index, and exchange rates of multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 99.86 with a 0.16% increase [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8770, with a basis of 100 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 232 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 498 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Regional Weather - US soybean - producing states' weather outlook from November 8 - 12 shows that temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be near or below the median. The Midwest may experience variable weather that could disrupt harvesting [6][8]. - Brazil is expected to have widespread precipitation this week, which is beneficial for crops [8]. - International Supply - Demand - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month, and exports increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Indonesia's palm oil and refined palm oil exports in the first 9 months of 2025 increased by 11.62% year - on - year [9]. - The estimated US soybean harvest rate as of last Sunday is 91%, and the corn harvest rate is 83%. The US is expected to have a bumper harvest of both crops [10]. - As of November 1, Brazil's soybean sowing rate is 47.1%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [11]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 3, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 2600 tons (20%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also decreased [16]. - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventories of palm oil and soybean oil in key regions decreased compared to the previous week, while the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [19]. - US manufacturing PMI data for October shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI is 48.7, lower than expected, while the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is 52.5, higher than the previous value [19]. - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October is in line with expectations at 50 [19]. - Domestic News - On November 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the yuan appreciated) by 13 points [21]. - The Chinese central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2590 billion yuan [21]. 05 Capital Flow - On November 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 1.399 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.76 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 252 million yuan and bond futures had a net outflow of 88 million yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [4] - The viewpoints for PX, PTA, and PR are all scored 0 [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On November 3, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $61.05 per barrel (up 0.11%), Brent crude oil was $64.89 per barrel (down 0.28%), naphtha CFR Japan spot price was $582.38 per ton (up 0.32%), xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $685.00 per ton (up 0.96%), and PX CFR China main port was $819.00 per ton (down 0.16%) [1] - **PTA**: On November 3, 2025, CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,596 yuan per ton (up 0.22%), settlement price was 4,606 yuan per ton (up 0.52%), near - month contract closing price was 4,542 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), settlement price was 4,552 yuan per ton (up 0.26%), domestic PTA spot price was 4,532 yuan per ton (up 0.44%), CCFEI PTA inner - market price index was 4,535 yuan per ton (up 0.55%), and outer - market was $616.00 per ton (up 0.65% as of October 31) [1] - **PX**: On November 3, 2025, CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,640 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), settlement price was 6,662 yuan per ton (up 0.85%), near - month contract closing price was 6,678 yuan per ton (up 0.85%), settlement price was 6,690 yuan per ton (up 1.55%), domestic PX spot price was 6,480 yuan per ton (down 0.11% as of October 31), CFR China Taiwan was $821.00 per ton (unchanged), FOB Korea was $796.00 per ton (unchanged), PXN spread was $236.63 per ton (down 1.34%), PX - MX spread was $134.00 per ton (down 5.52%) [1] - **PR**: On November 3, 2025, CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,674 yuan per ton (up 0.04%), settlement price was 5,686 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), near - month contract closing price was 5,730 yuan per ton (up 0.63%), settlement price was 5,730 yuan per ton (up 0.63%), polyester bottle - chip market price in East China was 5,730 yuan per ton (up 0.35%), and in South China was 5,770 yuan per ton (up 0.35%) [1] - **Downstream**: On November 3, 2025, CCFEI price index for polyester DTY was 8,500 yuan per ton (up 0.59%), POY was 6,825 yuan per ton (up 0.74%), FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton (unchanged), FDY150D was 6,700 yuan per ton (unchanged), polyester staple fiber was 6,345 yuan per ton (down 0.16%), polyester chip was 5,600 yuan per ton (up 0.09%), and bottle - grade chip was 5,730 yuan per ton (up 0.35%) [2] Operating Conditions - On November 3, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21% (unchanged), PTA factory load rate was 79.66% (unchanged), polyester factory load rate was 89.56% (up 0.22%), bottle - chip factory load rate was 75.63% (up 2.32%), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 72.28% (unchanged) [1] - On November 3, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 53.04% (up 9.07%), polyester staple fiber was 48.41% (down 1.11%), and polyester chip was 68.12% (up 22.49%) [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (designed capacity) PTA device No. 4 of Dushan Energy was tested on October 25. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News - **PX**: The market is still cautious about the US attack on Venezuela, and oil prices maintain a certain risk premium. OPEC+ decides to increase production in December, which exerts pressure on oil prices. On November 3, the CFR China price of PX was $819 per ton. An expanded - capacity device in the Northeast has restarted and is in stable production, and the overall demand is good [2] - **PTA**: The production - cut expectation was not fulfilled. The cost of PTA is supported by the strong - oscillating crude oil market. A new 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been tested and produced. The overall downstream demand is still weak [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,680 - 5,820 yuan per ton, remaining stable. The news is less favorable than expected, and the PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. The market atmosphere is dull, and the downstream purchasing willingness is low [2][3] Long - Short Logic - **PX**: It slightly rises following the cost. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,640 yuan per ton (up 0.51%) with a trading volume of 174,200 lots. Some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance or will be under maintenance, but the market supply remains stable with the supplement of toluene and xylene. Overseas devices are operating stably. The call for anti - involution in the industry has increased, but it has limited impact on PX supply and demand in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The TA2601 contract closed at 4,596 yuan per ton (up 0.31%) with a trading volume of 638,900 lots. The crude oil market is strongly oscillating, supporting the cost of PTA. The spot supply is sufficient, and there is no unplanned device maintenance. The production - cut expectation on the supply side has failed. Although the domestic demand is good and foreign trade orders have improved recently, the overall downstream demand is still weak [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded after opening low. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when prices fall to around 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating downward. In November, the supply pressure decreases, but the demand also declines. The market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips when prices return to the lower end of the range. Options can sell put options around 50,000 to earn premiums. For the equity side, buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks. Also, pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious oversupply. The market is bearish in the long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds. For glass, there is a short - term emotional impact on the market, and mid - to long - term supply pressure remains. In November, there is still a demand expectation during the peak season. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. Look for short - term long opportunities on rebounds [4]. Logs - Log futures prices are oscillating weakly. Although the supply of arrivals is increasing, downstream orders are insufficient, and the market is under pressure. However, the inverted price between domestic and foreign markets provides cost support. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short term, the cost side strongly supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weakening, and dark - colored rubber has shown an inflection point in inventory accumulation. If raw material supply increases smoothly, rubber prices may decline further, with a possible range of 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 8.00% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 2.33%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 16.67%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 100.00%, and 2603 - 2604 increased by 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons. Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons, Yunnan's decreased by 9.60% to 5.38 million tons, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.91% to 5.19 million tons. The national operating rate increased by 10.86% to 61.94%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29% to 20.96 million tons, polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons. Industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.28% to 10.81 million tons, Yunnan's increased by 1.47% to 3.46 million tons, and Sichuan's remained unchanged at 2.52 million tons. Social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 55.80 million tons, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.31% to 23.08 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.38% to 32.72 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis increased by 8.29%. The average prices of N - type silicon wafers, single - crystal Topcon cells, and related components remained unchanged [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price decreased by 0.61%. The spreads of consecutive months showed different degrees of change, such as the spread of the current month - the first - consecutive month decreased by 6.62% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.33% to 14.24 million tons, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, imports increased by 28.46% to 0.13 million tons, exports decreased by 28.16% to 0.21 million tons, and net exports decreased by 56.83% to 0.09 million tons. Silicon wafer production increased by 2.71% to 60.65 million tons, imports decreased by 17.96% to 0.04 million tons, exports remained unchanged at 0.67 million tons, and net exports increased by 1.96% to 0.63 million tons. Silicon wafer demand decreased by 2.79% to 69.63 million tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16% to 26.10 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 2.49% to 18.93 million tons. Polysilicon contracts remained unchanged at 9,590 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 0.80%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 0.80%. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased. The 05 basis increased by 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%, weekly production decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 16.13 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84% to 88,540 tons. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.50% to 19.50 yuan [4]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 6,579 million tons, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 170.20 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% [4]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices decreased. The prices of main benchmark delivery items in the spot market remained unchanged. The 11 - 01 spread and 11 - 03 spread changed, and the 01 contract basis increased [5]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 7.50 yuan [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 13.99% to 176.6 million cubic meters. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54.0. The total inventory in major ports increased by 1.41% to 288.00 million cubic meters [5]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume decreased by 2% to 6.28 million cubic meters [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber remained unchanged, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 2.30%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.01%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 229.63%. The prices of cup rubber, glue, and other raw materials remained unchanged [7]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 3.57%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28.57%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's August production decreased by 0.43% to 458.80 thousand tons, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30% to 189.00 thousand tons, India's increased by 11.11% to 50.00 thousand tons, and China's increased by 12.20 thousand tons. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased slightly. August domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10,295.4 million pieces. September tire exports decreased by 10.65% to 5,630.0 million pieces. August natural rubber imports increased by 14.41% to 59.59 million tons, and September imports increased by 12.12% to 74.00 million tons. The production cost of Thai dry rubber decreased, and the production margin increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.57% to 44,668 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 4.73% to 44,655 tons. The outbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general trade increased [7].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index mini futures declined by 0.59% [1] - The Nasdaq futures fell by 0.84% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas, production cuts in Iceland and high power costs put pressure on overseas production. Consumption is expected to peak in November - December. With positive macro - factors, aluminum price declines are limited, and upward space may open if inventory reduction goes smoothly [6] - Alumina has a surplus supply - demand pattern. Although the spot price is low and market activity has increased due to winter storage demand, the price is hard to rise, and continuous restocking by electrolytic aluminum plants is unsustainable. There are few positive factors in the current fundamentals [7][8] Summary by Category Aluminum Spot and Futures - **Spot prices**: On November 3, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, the Central Plains A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, and Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,290 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures prices**: The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on November 3, 2025, was 21,360 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 21,600 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, the warrant inventory was 64,269 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 554,575 tons [2] Alumina Spot and Futures - **Spot prices**: On November 3, 2025, the alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,845 yuan/ton, 2,790 yuan/ton, 2,865 yuan/ton, 3,010 yuan/ton, and 3,015 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures prices**: The opening price of the alumina main contract on November 3, 2025, was 2,798 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,789 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous trading day [2] Aluminum Alloy - **Prices**: On November 3, 2025, the procurement prices of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum and mechanical raw aluminum were 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton respectively, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons [4] - **Cost and profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic aluminum**: Overseas production cuts, high power costs, and positive macro - factors support the aluminum price. Consumption is expected to improve in the peak season, and the aluminum price may rise if inventory reduction is smooth [6] - **Alumina**: The spot price is low, and market activity has increased due to winter storage. However, the supply - demand surplus remains, and the price is hard to rise. Cost reduction from imported ore has not improved smelting losses [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron ore: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal coal: No specific rating provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating due to fluctuating macro - sentiment. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and demand expectations are cautious. Hot - rolled coil inventory is decreasing, but it's also high year - on - year [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating downward. The arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure as steel mills cut production due to losses [3]. - Coking coal and coke are oscillating. Coking coal supply is tight, while demand has improved. Coke production has increased, but downstream steel mills purchase on a just - in - time basis due to compressed profits [5][6]. - Thermal coal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term due to the situation at production areas. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading of steel was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9800 tons. The trading volume in the East China region increased significantly, while that in the North decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and with the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing, and the pace of destocking is accelerating, but the inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 1.293 million tons, a 62.44% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of forward - looking spot was 965000 tons, a 35.15% increase from the previous day. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, with a total shipment volume of 3.2138 billion tons, a 5.15% decrease from the previous period. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, with a total arrival volume of 3.2184 billion tons, a 58.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports increased significantly this week. The overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure. As steel mills cut production due to losses, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and prices face correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - commodity: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4] - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The coking coal and coke futures market showed a pattern of mixed gains and losses and oscillating consolidation. The customs clearance volume of imported coal increased slightly, and traders were optimistic about the market and were reluctant to lower prices, with the overall trading atmosphere improving [5]. - Logic and views: For coking coal, safety inspections are being carried out in some domestic production areas, and the customs clearance of imported coal is continuously recovering, but the overall supply is still tight. On the demand side, a new round of price increases for coke is imminent, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved compared with before. For coke, the profits of coking enterprises have improved, and production has increased. On the demand side, downstream steel mills' profits are compressed, and they mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Sideways [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Inter - period: None [6] - Inter - commodity: None [6] - Futures - spot: None [6] - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: At production areas, coal prices are strong. Supply in some areas has shrunk due to safety inspections. The inventory level in Inner Mongolia is not high, and miners are optimistic about the future. The transportation by platform traders has improved, and the number of coal - pulling trucks at some mines with large previous price drops has increased. At ports, although prices have increased, the increase is smaller than that at mines, and traders' expectations are divided. Affected by the decrease in shipments and the increase in production - area prices, traders' quotes have increased, and some are reluctant to sell, while others think the price increase will be limited. Downstream users mainly purchase under long - term contracts and are resistant to high - priced coal. Currently, port inventory is low, with a large year - on - year decrease, and the shipment to ports is slow, so prices are unlikely to decline in the short term. For imports, the price support for imported coal is strong, and rainfall in Indonesia still affects shipments. At the beginning of the month, the imported coal market was stable, and demand was mainly for刚需 [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by production areas, prices will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. Strategy - None [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches and southwest production decreases, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The current industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although production is decreasing, downstream demand may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the year [1][3][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9100 yuan/ton and closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 228,268 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 46,161, a decrease of 1092 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton. The price in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable. The weekly output of Yunnan sample silicon enterprises was 6265 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 54%, a significant decrease from the previous week. As the dry season in Yunnan approaches, some local silicon furnaces have stopped production, and the operating rate is in a continuous downward trend. In November, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term order delivery needs will be in production, and the number of remaining operating furnaces may be less than 20 [1]. Consumption Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 11000 - 11300 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale price adjustment of the leading manufacturer, downstream inventory replenishment increased, and market confidence was boosted. However, the problem of oversupply was still prominent, and the market was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and production in the southwest is decreasing, so the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 56320 yuan/ton and closed at 56065 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 143,844 lots, and the trading volume was 215,288 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.50 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of 1.16%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.49%). The weekly output of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32% [5]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest will decrease significantly, and the output is expected to decline [7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.31 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large inventory pressure. The production has started to decrease recently, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month. The downstream production plan may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Participants need to pay attention to risk management and follow up on policy implementation and spot price transmission. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market is under pressure with local spot prices falling. The current fundamental situation of asphalt is weak, with sluggish terminal demand and concentrated release of long - term refinery resources, suppressing the spot market. Without significant fluctuations in the cost side, the market is expected to continue weak and volatile [2]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,233 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 207,852 lots, a net increase of 7,905 lots, and the trading volume was 263,304 lots, a net increase of 82,215 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,406 - 3,750 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,150 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China 3,370 - 3,520 yuan/ton; East China 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions fell, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. - Inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy. - Futures - spot: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [3].