1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with significant price support due to the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation and consolidation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may boost short - term export rush demand but could overdraw medium - and long - term demand. The overall market is moving towards cost - reduction and efficiency - enhancement, with downstream capacity accelerating to clear out [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,815 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.4)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 224,552 lots. On January 19, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 11,571 lots, a change of 288 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1] Consumption End - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon production cuts continued this week, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. However, the short - term photovoltaic export rush may boost industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon continued the peak - shifting emission reduction policy and self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and subsequent开工 was expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum expectations to the demand side [2] Supply End - On the same day, a large factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts, and the planned production in January was expected to decline significantly, which had a positive impact on industrial silicon prices. If the production cuts are effective, the supply side of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and inventory will shift from accumulation to reduction [2] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the short term, conduct range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the polysilicon futures main contract 2605 oscillated upward, opening at 50,650 yuan/ton and closing at 50,700 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The main contract position reached 43,632 (44,571 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 10,115 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices were stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.50 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3] - According to SMM statistics, polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased, silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 32.10 (with a month - on - month change of 6.29%), silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW (with a month - on - month change of - 5.53%), polysilicon weekly output was 21,500 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 9.66%), and silicon wafer output was 10.83GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.95%) [3] Product Prices - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.49 yuan/piece [4] - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation and consolidation. In the short term, conduct range - bound operations, and the main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent rush - to - export sentiment provides some support to the spot. After April, the expected sharp decline in exports will further ease the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts [3]. - The caustic soda spot price is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Attention should be paid to downstream receiving sentiment and fluctuations in downstream chlorine - containing product installations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures price and basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,807 yuan/ton (+6); the East China basis is - 267 yuan/ton (-6); the South China basis is - 227 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. - **Spot price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (+0); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,580 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - **Upstream production profit**: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,855 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 35 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 662 yuan/ton (-29); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 138 yuan/ton (+54); the PVC export profit is 10.3 US dollars/ton (+9.8) [1]. - **PVC inventory and operation rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.1 tons (-1.7); the social PVC inventory is 56.2 tons (+1.5); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.66% (+0.43%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 75.48% (-0.21%); the overall PVC operation rate is 79.08% (+0.23%) [1]. - **Downstream order situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+1.7) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures price and basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1,960 yuan/ton (-45); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 7 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. - **Spot price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 625 yuan/ton (-10); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,060 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream production profit**: The profit of a single caustic soda product in Shandong is 932 yuan/ton (-31); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 488.2 yuan/ton (-31.3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 548.83 yuan/ton (-31.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Caustic soda inventory and operation rate**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 51.21 tons (+1.70); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.90 tons (-0.18); the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.70% (+0.10%) [2]. - **Downstream operation rate of caustic soda**: The operation rate of alumina is 85.83% (+0.09%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.76% (-1.33%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and there was a rush - to - export situation before April, with export orders strengthening month - on - month. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak [3]. - On the supply side, domestic PVC supply is abundant, and the operation rate has rebounded. This week, Fujian Wanhua entered maintenance, and the supply is expected to decline slightly. Downstream operation rates have decreased, with the operation rate of profiles decreasing, and those of pipes and films remaining flat. There is an expectation of further decline in the future, and downstream buyers purchase on dips [3]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level year - on - year. On the cost side, the production profit of upstream chlor - alkali has decreased this week due to the weak spot price of caustic soda and is at a low level year - on - year. The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are stable, and their profits are still in a loss state. PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3]. Caustic Soda - Currently, the spot price of caustic soda is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts, and the spot quotation has been continuously lowered. The supply - demand situation of caustic soda is weak, and the inventory in Shandong has continued to increase [3]. - On the supply side, the overall operation rate is at a high level, the price of liquid caustic soda is falling, and chlor - alkali enterprises have a stronger willingness to support the price of liquid chlorine. The prices of some chlorine - consuming products have strengthened. The export tax rebate for polyether polyol, a downstream product of propylene oxide, was cancelled on April 1st, leading to a rush - to - export by downstream enterprises. The demand was transmitted to propylene oxide and its upstream liquid chlorine, and the price of liquid chlorine is strong. There are few caustic soda enterprises planning maintenance [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream receiving sentiment is average. The operation rate of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The main alumina plants in Shandong have again lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda to 615 yuan/ton. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market's pessimism has led to insufficient motivation to purchase caustic soda. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side trading**: Range - bound [4]. - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Go long the V03 - 05 spread on dips [4]. - **Inter - commodity spread trading**: None [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side trading**: Cautiously bearish [5]. - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Go short the SH03 - 05 spread on rallies [5]. - **Inter - commodity spread trading**: None [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-21 下游加工费创历年新低 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23680元/吨，较上一交易日变化-190元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-160元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价23560元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-280元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23720元/吨，较上一交易日变化-180元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-120元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-20日沪铝主力合约开于24020元/吨，收于23950元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，最 高价达24285元/吨，最低价达到23715元/吨。全天交易日成交447533手，全天交易日持仓332750手。 库存方面，截止2026-01-20，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存74.9万吨，较上一期变化1.3万吨，仓单库存139951 吨，较上一交易日变化-1524吨，LME铝库存483000吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-20SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2615元/吨，山东价格录得2565元/吨，河南价格录得 264 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-21 期货震荡偏弱，现货谨慎观望 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏弱，玻碱震荡下跌 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现平淡，期现市场交投氛围冷清。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾虽有所好转，但浮法玻璃终端刚需淡季难有突破。短期在投机性需求提升和节后 旺季预期的共同作用下，玻璃期货维持升水。考虑到玻璃面临化解高库存的任务，因此依旧需要通过压价达到进 一步减产的目的。后期关注玻璃冷修和投机情况。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡运下跌，现货方面，市场以观望谨慎态度对待，下游企业刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，新投产能叠加部分装置恢复带动产量增加，供应维持高位，高供应持续压 制纯碱价格；需求端，下游浮法玻璃刚需一般，光伏玻璃需求改善有限，刚需持稳而投机需求不足。后续若基本 面延续弱现实格局，叠加期现贸易商主动抛货离场的悲观情绪传导，纯碱将面临进一步下行压力，关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双 ...

| | | | | 20260121申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 黄莹(执业编号：F03148260；投资咨询编号：Z0022869） | | | | | | | | huangying@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | | 前日收盘价 | 5200 | 5183 | 5182 | 14.73 | 14.35 | 14.68 | | | 前2日收盘 | 5260 | 5244 | 5242 | 14.99 | 14.58 | 14.86 | | | 价 | | | | | | | | 期 | 涨跌 | -60 | -61 | -60 | -0.26 | -0.23 | -0.18 | | 货 | 涨跌幅% | -1.14 | -1.16 | -1.14 | -1.73 | -1.58 | -1.21 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas raw material prices are continuously falling, weakening the bottom support for natural rubber (NR). The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of NR remains unchanged, and the downstream production and sales pressure persists [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 251,199 lots, an increase of 34,844 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 178,976 lots, a decrease of 7,467 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 109,870 tons, a decrease of 20 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 37,207 lots, a decrease of 2,487 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was -220 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was -870 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 45 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,140 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the STR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SMR20 was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also declined. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber, also decreased [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of NR in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, with a growth rate of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, with a growth rate of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao increased to varying degrees [2][3] - Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively large proportion of European exports have relatively sufficient foreign trade orders recently, and their production is maintained at a relatively high level. However, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, the domestic sales are slow, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Polyester leading stocks' rise drives PX and PTA prices up. Before the Spring Festival, the downside price space is limited, but there is pressure after the festival. Future PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. Consider long - PX short - PTA and long - MX short - PX hedges [8]. - PTA: Polyester leading stocks' rise leads to PTA price rebound. Focus on reducing processing fees. Future supply and demand are both weak, and it turns into a stock - building pattern [9]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market with limited downside space. Pay attention to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spreads. Supply pressure is still large, but considering basis, calendar spreads, and potential spring maintenance, the downside is restricted [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - **Futures Prices**: PX主力昨日收盘价7232元，涨126元，涨幅1.77%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5144元，涨114元，涨幅2.27%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3674元，跌81元，跌幅2.16%；PF主力昨日收盘价6494元，涨96元，涨幅1.50%；SC主力昨日收盘价437元，跌0.4元，跌幅0.09% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR中国昨日价格888美元/吨，较前日涨9美元；PTA华东昨日价格5010元/吨，较前日涨38元；MEG现货昨日价格3595元/吨，较前日跌43元；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格549美元/吨，较前日涨0.5美元；Dated布伦特昨日价格68美元/桶，较前日涨0.69美元 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格330.5美元/吨，较前日涨4.42美元；PTA加工费昨日价格309.31元/吨，较前日跌70.31元；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64元/吨，较前日跌21.37元；瓶片加工费昨日价格149.42元/吨，较前日涨47.24元；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34美元/吨，与前日持平 [2]. Fundamental Information - **PX**: On January 20, PX prices rose. The estimated price of MOPJ in February is 546 dollars/ton CFR. Three Asian spot transactions in March were all at 887. The estimated PX price on January 20 was 888 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars from January 19. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% (+1.3%), and only Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance. Some overseas PX plants plan to restart or are under maintenance, and the overseas import in December is expected to be over 950,000 tons [3][8]. - **PTA**: The PTA plant operating rate is maintained at about 76.9%. The Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Polyester production reduction plans increase, and the operating rate drops rapidly this week [8][9]. - **MEG**: From January 19 to January 25, the planned arrival quantity at major ports is about 205,000 tons. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is 74.4%, and the coal - based operating rate is 80.2% (+1.6%). Some plants adjust their loads, and some are under maintenance. Polyester filament manufacturers increase maintenance efforts, and the polyester load in February is expected to drop to 82 - 83% [6][10]. - **Polyester**: A 400,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing and a 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo are under planned maintenance and will restart in early March. A 50,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing restarted on January 20. On January 20, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 102%. The sales - to - production ratio of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments was weak, with an estimated average of 40 - 50% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [7]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 24360 | 24365 | 24460 | 24225 | -25 | -0.10 | 37616 | -4921 | | 沪锌 | 2603 | ...

2026 年 01 月 21 日 短纤：短期震荡市，加工费低位运行 20260121 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260121 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6490 | 6376 | 114 | PF02-03 | -4 | -22 | 18 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6494 | 6398 | 96 | PF03-04 | -42 | -46 | ব | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧3୧ | 6444 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -54 | 37 | -91 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 179671 | 193804 | -14133 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.440 | 6. 435 | 5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 190619 | 189910 | 709 | 短纤产销率 | 102% | 76 ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢：原料市场扰动，偏弱震荡 热轧卷板：原料市场扰动，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,111 | -37 | -1.18 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,276 | -32 | -0.97 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 936,583 | 1,741,235 | 13,280 | | | HC2605 | 471,822 | 1,486,145 | -15,864 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） ...