Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market shows significant price fluctuations in futures contracts, with some contracts rising sharply. The spot freight rate peak appears later than expected, and the 08 contract's basis is gradually being repaired. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and market booking conditions [2][4]. - The dry - bulk shipping market has seen an overall increase in freight rates. The large - ship market is expected to stop falling and recover, while the medium - ship market is expected to have a slightly stronger and volatile freight rate [16][22]. - In the oil tanker transportation market, the BDTI has declined recently. Considering the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter and weak demand, the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be monitored [26]. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Futures contracts: On July 15, EC2510 had a significant increase of 14.92%, with a large increase in trading volume. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and the basis is gradually being repaired [2]. - Spot freight rates: The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. MSK's WK31 Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price remained flat compared to the previous period [2][4]. - Tariffs: Trump proposed to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved within 50 days, and may impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US is also considering increasing tariffs on other countries, which may affect the shipping market [4][5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short EC2510 at high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Industry News - Multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations and counter - measures, and the cease - fire negotiation in the Gaza Strip is ongoing, which may impact the shipping market [9][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rate index: The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four - week high, with all ship - type freight rates increasing. The Capesize ship freight rate index rose by 12.5%, and the Panamax ship freight rate index reached its highest level since June 18 last year [16]. - Spot freight rates: On July 14, the freight rate of the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route for Capesize ships increased by 2.08% week - on - week. The weekly freight rates of some coal and grain routes also showed varying degrees of increase [17]. - Shipping data: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly, while the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The grain shipping volume in July 2025 was lower than that of the same period last year [19]. - Import and export data: In June 2025, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal imports decreased. Soybean imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [20]. Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three years to one year starting in 2026. The iron ore inventory at major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased [23]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rates: On July 14, the BDTI reported 927, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%, and the BCTI reported 548, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Due to the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter, demand is relatively weak [26]. Industry News - Trump's new tariffs may exempt energy products. An explosion occurred at a production facility in an oil field in Canada, and there have been multiple engine shutdown incidents on Indian flights [27][28]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to container shipping, dry - bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation freight rates and indices, to visually display market trends [31][32][41]

智通财经APP获悉，美国6月核心通胀率连续第五个月低于预期，因为汽车价格下跌抵消了受关税影响的其他商品 价格上涨。剔除食品和能源价格后，6月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%，都较预期小了0.1个百分点。 数据显示，美国6月CPI 环比上升0.3%，同比上升2.7%，均与市场预期一致，分别较5月的0.1%和2.4%的涨幅有所 上升。 | 活动 | 今値 | 预测值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国未季调核心CPI年率(%) (同 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | | 比) (六月) | | | | | 美国核心CPI月率(%) (月度环比) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | | (六月) | | | | | 美国未季调CPI年率(%) (同比) | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | | (六月) | | | | | 美国CPI月率(%) (月度环比) (六 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | | 日） | | | | 数据公布后，股指期货维持涨势，美债收益率震荡，美元走低。 服务类价格(剔除能源)上涨0.3%。近年推 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在全球关税政策动荡引发的市场波动中，花旗(C.US)交易业务斩获五年来最亮眼的 第二季度业绩。得益于当季创纪录的交易量，该行交易营收实现强势增长。 根据财报显示，花旗固定收益交易业务收入激增20%至43亿美元，远超分析师预测的39亿美元。同期股 票交易业务营收达16亿美元也超出预期，主要受益于主经纪商业务余额飙升至历史高位。 自美国总统特朗普4月宣布对多国加征关税以来，全球市场持续震荡。这为花旗及其华尔街同行带来交 易业务的丰收季——客户交易活动激增推高各机构收入，不过并购业务的强劲复苏势头因此受阻。 在投行业务方面，由Vis Raghavan领衔的花旗并购团队同样交出超预期成绩单。投资银行手续费收入同 比增长13%，突破10亿美元大关。 经济学家正密切关注美国消费者如何应对关税政策与特朗普税改带来的不确定性影响。 尽管花旗此前预警本季度需比上季度多计提数亿美元贷款损失准备金，但实际信贷成本28.7亿美元(同 比上升16%)仍低于分析师预期的29.4亿美元。 本期财报还有其他亮点：花旗五大业务板块全部实现营收增长。其中服务、财富管理及美国个人银行业 务创下历史最佳二季度表现，推动集团总营收 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's investment banking business unexpectedly grew by 7% in Q2, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 14% decline, indicating a potential recovery in the M&A market after a period of caution due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - The bank's adjusted earnings per share reached $4.96, exceeding the analyst forecast of $4.48, driven by strong performance in investment banking and trading [1] - CEO Jamie Dimon noted that market activity, which started slowly at the beginning of the year, has accelerated as market sentiment improves [2] Group 2 - The bank's debt underwriting revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, and M&A advisory fees rose by 8%, while stock underwriting revenue fell by 6%, which was better than the expected 29% decline [5] - Fixed income business revenue reached $5.69 billion, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $5.22 billion, and equity trading revenue hit a record $3.25 billion for two consecutive quarters [5] - The bank raised its full-year net interest income forecast from $94.5 billion to $95.5 billion, despite slightly missing expectations for the quarterly net interest income [6]

Group 1 - The Brazilian government, represented by Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro, criticized the U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods as an "unfair measure" and plans to seek alternative markets in the Middle East and South Asia [1] - Brazilian President Lula indicated that the government could take various actions in response to the U.S. tariffs, including filing a complaint with the WTO and implementing reciprocal measures based on the recently passed economic equivalence law [1] - The Brazilian government has expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. tariffs and has summoned the U.S. chargé d'affaires for clarification regarding comments made about former President Bolsonaro [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian newspaper "O Estado de S. Paulo" suggested that imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian products would not alleviate the legal troubles faced by former President Bolsonaro and would be counterproductive to U.S. economic goals [3] - China's Foreign Ministry emphasized that tariffs should not be used as tools for coercion or interference in other countries' internal affairs, highlighting the principle of sovereign equality [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on nearly all remaining trade partners, indicating a broader strategy of increasing tariffs [5] - The U.S. has already sent tariff warning letters to countries like South Korea and Japan, which have been described as lacking negotiation sincerity and reducing dialogue opportunities [5] Group 4 - The German automotive industry is facing significant losses due to U.S. tariffs, with calls for a swift resolution to the trade conflict [7] - Economic experts warn that the imposition of high tariffs on EU goods could lead to substantial trade disruptions and an escalation of economic conflict between the U.S. and EU [7] - Recent data indicates that U.S. companies are beginning to feel the impact of tariffs, with prices for imported steel and aluminum rising nearly 30% from January to May, affecting various sectors reliant on these materials [7]

如果美国通胀数据迟迟不上升，那么"最尴尬的人"，或许就是正在等待关税下通胀复燃信号的 鲍威尔，以及那些长期以来一直警告关税将推高美国通胀的经济学家…… 而 今晚，即将公布的美国6月CPI报告，可能就将成为一场关键的"正名之战"…… 目前，在连续四个月高估CPI读数后，不少华尔街机构再度在今晚关键的CPI押注中选择了"押 大" ——预计美国6月CPI数据将出现较高的增速。一些业内人士表示，若美国6月份CPI最终 出现明显上涨，将是美国关税上调正在推高通胀的第一个真正迹象。 事实上，前几个月不温不火的美国通胀数据表现，其实已经让美联储处于了一个较为尴尬的境 地——美联储官员们一直在为年内迄今按兵不动的利率政策进行辩护，他们给出的最常见理由 就是预期关税将推高通胀，但这一效应至今仍始终未见踪影。 而如果今晚的通胀数据表现依然温和——涨幅低于预期，那么几乎可以肯定会引发美国特朗普 再次表达强烈不满。他近来已多次呼吁美联储降息，并屡屡把矛头直接对准美联储主席鲍威尔 本人。 很有意思的是，由于特朗普关税政策带来的一系列不确定性因素，美联储自身其实也没法能精 准把控通胀何时会复燃以及具体的火热程度。在本月初出席欧洲央行年度 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non-US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading in the next stage, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by supply tightness expectations, but the high - capacity operation and market surplus situation remain. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,950 - 3,250 this week. For aluminum, the current price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, the price of the main contract is expected to face pressure in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 this week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress price increases. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, but the increase in domestic mine production in June fell short of expectations, providing price support. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand has weakened marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel has loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. In the short term, the macro situation is volatile. It is recommended to hold existing short positions from previous highs and pay attention to US tariff changes [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level ferronickel price weakens cost support, the supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and the surplus may increase. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract reference range of 63,000 - 68,000, but there is still downward pressure in the medium term [20]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 116.4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. The import profit and loss improved by 200.42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import profit and loss decreased by 605.76 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased to 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 64,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. In May, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 250,500 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30%. In May, the un - wrought aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 97,000 tons, an increase of 11.75% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. In May, the stainless steel import volume was 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. In May, the lithium carbonate import volume was 21,146 tons, a decrease of 25.37% [20]. Spread - **Copper**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 70 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 150 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the steel industry is experiencing manageable inventory pressure, indicating limited supply-demand conflicts. The recovery in raw material prices provides support for prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment boosts market confidence, leading to expectations of a strong fluctuation in steel prices in the short term [3][16]. - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but U.S. tariff policies increase trade uncertainty, which may put pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - The aluminum market faces macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory supports prices. However, weak downstream demand during the off-season is expected to lead to price fluctuations [3][46]. - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - The lithium market is under pressure from potential oversupply, despite the "anti-involution" sentiment providing some support for prices [3][52]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is facing limited supply-demand conflicts, with inventory pressure being manageable. The raw material price recovery is expected to support prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment is boosting market confidence, leading to expectations of strong fluctuations in steel prices [3][16]. - As of July 11, the total steel inventory was 13.33 million tons, down 0.03% from the previous week and down 23.26% year-on-year [25]. - The average price index for steel on July 11 was 3,428.49 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices. However, the U.S. tariff policy adds trade uncertainty, potentially putting pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - On July 11, the LME copper price was 9,600 USD/ton, down 3.34% from the previous week [44]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing price support. The report anticipates price fluctuations due to weak downstream demand during the off-season [3][46]. - On July 11, the LME aluminum price was 2,600 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [47]. Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - On July 11, the COMEX gold price was 3,370.30 USD/ounce, showing a 1.03% increase from the previous week [49]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that rare earth prices are currently at a cyclical low, with domestic policies promoting supply optimization. The demand from humanoid robots and new energy sectors provides new momentum for the industry [4][63]. - On July 11, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium was 456,000 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous week [63].

Export Data - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in May, surpassing market expectations of 5.0%[2] - The trade surplus reached $114.77 billion, compared to $103.22 billion in the previous month[2] Import Data - Imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year in June, recovering from a decline of 3.4% in May, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%[2] - The increase in imports was supported by a low base effect and resilient export performance, with the import volume showing significant growth[4] Export Drivers - The recovery in export growth was partly due to the delayed impact of the US-China tariff suspension, with the year-on-year decline in exports to the US narrowing by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1%[3] - Demand for re-export from ASEAN countries continued to rise, although future costs may increase due to the US-Vietnam tariff agreement[3] Import Trends - Strong demand for high-end manufacturing imports, such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, contributed approximately 1.8 percentage points to import growth[4] - The import growth of most energy and mineral products was affected by price factors, particularly for copper[4] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to benefit from the tariff suspension in the short term, but pressure may emerge by the end of Q3 2025 due to elevated base effects and potential shifts in US demand[5] - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties and unexpected changes in economic policies that could impact market sentiment[5]

文 | 徐 来 编 辑 | 徐 来 美国与14国谈判破裂后，转而向中国伸出橄榄枝。尽管特朗普嘴上依旧强硬，实际行动却显现出明显松动。关税这根杠杆已用尽，却未换来任何实质妥协。 我认为，这次是贸易博弈中的一次突然反扑，可中国会愿意接招吗？ 白宫连发多封函件，给这14个国家下达了"最后通牒"，时间紧迫，仅有24天的回应期限。 这份命令中规定，对日本、韩国、泰国、印尼、越南、孟加拉国、柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、南非、波黑、塞尔维亚、哈萨克斯坦和马来西亚等国的产品征收 25%至40%不等的惩罚性关税。 这些国家此前都被纳入了"对等关税"谈判名单。 早在今年4月，美国政府便宣布对全球主要贸易国实施最低10%、最高达40%的惩罚关税。 当时不少人以为，特朗普此举只是为了制造"吓阻效果"，但三个月过去，几乎没有哪个国家让步。 欧盟的谈判破裂，法国公开批评美国强硬无理；韩国毫无妥协，首尔与华盛顿的外交氛围冷若冰霜；日本态度更是激烈，防卫省和产业省联合发布声明，指 责美国"干涉内政、强取豪夺"。 于是，7月7日，美国发布了那份"集体征税函"。 特朗普翻脸快得像翻书，信中明确写道：自8月1日起，这14国产品将全面提高关税，如果期限内不 ...