Core Points - The S&P 500 index is currently up by 0.28%, the Dow Jones is up by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq is up by 0.49% [1] - White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated that President Trump continues to engage in trade agreement negotiations [1] - More tariff letters are expected to be seen before August 1 [1]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） 目前，从已经披露的 28 个经济体的新定税率来看 ，巴西最高，为 50% ，其次是缅甸和老挝，为 40% ，泰国、柬埔寨、加拿大税率位列第三档，税率分别定 为 36% 、 36% 、 35% ，欧盟税率则为 30% ，日本、韩国税率定为 25% ，而越南、印尼、英国，与美国达成贸易协议（越南并未最终敲定），税率最低， 分别定为 20% 、 19% 、 10% 。 一、美国贸易谈判进展跟踪 （一）对等关税 2.0 概况 1 、新关税率是多少？详见图 1 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令，将互惠对等关税暂停期延长至 8 月 1 日，并陆续向数十个贸易伙伴发送函件，宣布新的关税率将于 8 月 1 日生效，新的关税 率与 4 月 2 号对等关税率大体相同，在 10%-50% 之间。此外， 7 月 17 日，特朗普接受采访时表示，将向 150 多个国家发送关税信函，关税率可能是 10% 或 15% ，还没有最终决定。 核心观点 1 ） 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent decline in soybean prices and questions whether trade agreements can provide new support for the market [1] - It highlights increased volatility in corn prices, raising concerns about whether weather issues might trigger short covering [1] Group 1: Soybean Market - Soybean prices have experienced a downturn, prompting discussions on potential support mechanisms such as trade agreements [1] - The impact of trade agreements on soybean prices remains uncertain, indicating a need for close monitoring of market developments [1] Group 2: Corn Market - Corn prices are showing heightened volatility, which could be influenced by weather-related factors [1] - There is speculation that adverse weather conditions may lead to short covering among traders, affecting overall market dynamics [1]

印尼称19%的美国关税可能在8月1日前生效 金十数据7月21日讯，印尼首席经济部长Airlangga Hartarto周一表示，对进入美国的印尼商品征收19%的 关税可能会早于美国总统特朗普设定的8月1日最后期限生效。Airlangga称，加征关税的时间取决于两国 预计很快会发表的联合声明，两国上周达成了一项贸易协议，将美国提出的关税税率从32%降至19%。 该协议是特朗普政府在8月1日与许多国家的谈判截止日期之前达成的少数协议之一。 ...

Core Points - The EU and US are entering another round of intensive trade negotiations, aiming to reach an agreement before the August 1 deadline, amidst increasing tensions over tariffs [1][6] - The US is reportedly seeking to implement nearly comprehensive high tariffs on EU goods, with rates exceeding 10%, while exemptions are becoming increasingly limited [2] - The EU is preparing for potential retaliatory measures if negotiations fail, including tariffs on US goods valued at €21 billion and an additional list targeting €72 billion worth of products [11][12] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU and US representatives are set to engage in negotiations to break the deadlock before the August 1 deadline, with US Commerce Secretary expressing confidence in reaching an agreement [1][5] - The discussions include potential limits on certain industries, quotas on steel and aluminum, and the separation of supply chains from surplus metal sources [5][10] - The EU had previously been optimistic about nearing a preliminary framework for discussions on a unified tax rate of 10% on most exports [7] Group 2: Tariff Policies - Trump has warned that if no agreement is reached, a 30% tariff on EU imports will take effect on August 1, along with additional tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum, and other products [6][11] - The EU estimates that US tariffs currently cover €380 billion (approximately $442 billion) of its exports, accounting for about 70% of its total exports to the US [6] Group 3: Retaliatory Measures - The EU is considering rapid action plans for retaliatory tariffs if negotiations do not yield positive results, which could escalate into a broader transatlantic trade conflict [11][13] - The EU has already approved potential tariffs on US goods worth €21 billion in response to US metal tariffs, targeting politically sensitive products [11] - The EU is also exploring measures beyond tariffs, such as export controls and restrictions on public procurement contracts [12][14]

Tariff Overview - On July 7, Trump signed an executive order extending the suspension period for reciprocal tariffs until August 1, with new rates set to be between 10%-50%[3] - Brazil has the highest new tariff rate at 50%, followed by Myanmar and Laos at 40%, while the EU's rate is 30% and Japan and South Korea's rates are 25%[3][9] Differences in Tariff Rates - The new tariffs will be cumulative with Section 232 tariffs, unlike the previous rates which were not cumulative[11] - New tariffs will impose penalties for transshipment to evade tariffs, ensuring higher rates are applied regardless of routing[12] Trade Negotiation Progress - Trade agreements have been reached with the UK (10% tariff), Vietnam (20% claimed by Trump, 11% claimed by Vietnam), and Indonesia (19%)[4][13] - India is reportedly very close to a temporary agreement, while the EU is exploring solutions to resolve automotive tariff disputes[14] Economic Indicators - The WEI index for the US is at 2.37, indicating stable economic activity, while Germany's WAI index has dropped to -0.38[21] - US retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations, while PPI inflation was lower than anticipated at 2.3%[16][18]

金十数据7月21日讯，渣打G10货币研究主管Steven Englander表示，日元仅收复2-3天跌幅，仍接近一年 低位。超短期走势取决于市场是否认为能克服政治障碍达成贸易协议。若不能，日本央行将面临保持低 利率的压力，这可能会增加日元走软的风险。 渣打：日元收复失地有限 焦点转向贸易协议与央行政策动向 ...

Economic Developments - The U.S. Commerce Secretary expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the EU, with a baseline tariff of 10% set to begin on August 1 [11][12] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce anticipates that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [14][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, including steel and petrochemicals [14][15] Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.155% to 98.46, while U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.423% and the 2-year yield at 3.88% [3][4] - International oil prices experienced volatility, with WTI crude oil closing at $66 per barrel, down 0.47%, and Brent crude at $68.59 per barrel, down 0.45% [4][8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.33% to close at 24,825.66, with a trading volume of 238.69 billion yuan [5][8] Corporate News - The court hearing for the Wahaha family property dispute is scheduled for August 1 in Hong Kong [16] - The Chinese government is taking measures to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals [14][18] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. approval of Nvidia's H20 chip sales to China, emphasizing the need for a cooperative environment for mutual benefit [14][18]

美国商务部长卢特尼克：特朗普绝对会重新谈判《美墨加协定》（USMCA）。 小国将需支付10%基准关税。 有信心与欧洲达成贸易协议。 今早与欧洲贸易官员通话。 8月1日是关税的硬性截止日期。 ...

美国总统特朗普：将很快宣布重大贸易协议。 ...