Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market in the chemical sector shows a predominantly positive trend, with PTA futures experiencing a slight upward movement, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] Cost and Profit Analysis - The cost and profit dynamics are primarily influenced by raw material prices, which are currently declining, while PVC prices have seen a slight increase, leading to improved PVC profit margins [1] Supply Side Dynamics - Recent maintenance activities at various chemical plants, including those in Ulanqab, Ordos, and others, have impacted supply. The capacity utilization rate for PVC has increased by 0.05% to 76.84% [1] Demand Side Insights - The overall operating rate of downstream products has shown a slight weekly recovery, particularly in pipe manufacturing. However, demand remains constrained due to adverse weather conditions and ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [1] Market Outlook - The outlook for August suggests continued pressure on supply and demand dynamics, with rising costs for calcium carbide and a return to a bullish trend for coking coal. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation, with a recommendation to hold short positions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant increase in coke futures, with the primary contract rising by 3% to 1662 yuan per ton on August 6 [1] Group 1 - Coke futures experienced a notable price increase, reaching 1662 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: Neutral [3] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bullish [3] - Imports: Bearish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Neutral [3] - MTO Profits: Bearish [3] - Inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the reality of methanol is weak, but the expectation is strong due to macro and demand increment expectations, leading to a continuous decline in the recent month spread. The short - term strategy is still a reverse arbitrage logic. For unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the impact of commodity sentiment, and look for long opportunities at low levels in forward contracts [3]. - Coal prices have continued to rebound recently, with pit - mouth prices rising, and coal has entered the peak season [3]. - The domestic methanol operating rate has rebounded slightly but remains low, with many domestic plants under maintenance, resulting in a reduction in inland supply [3]. - Overseas plants are resuming production, and there is significant import pressure in August. However, the recent natural gas shortage in Iran has led to a reduction in supply, and the sustainability of this impact should be monitored [3]. - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand is firm, and the procurement sentiment inland is fair. For olefin plants, there are both restarts and maintenance. Xingxing is under maintenance while Mengda has restarted, resulting in a reduction in coastal demand [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol has remained stable, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol has remained in the red, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol has rebounded slightly [3]. - The MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. - Ports have continued to accumulate inventory, while inland inventory has remained low [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Supply - As of the week ending August 1, the national methanol plant operating rate was 71.5%, with the coal - to - methanol plant operating rate at 76.6%, the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 56.8%, and the natural - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 49.9% [11]. - During the period from July 25 to July 31, Yulin Kaiyue, Yankuang Yulin, Shenmu Chemical, Shanxi Linxin, and Shanxi Gengyang restarted, while Shaanxi Changqing and Runzhong Clean started maintenance. Many domestic plants, including Gansu Huating, Yulin Kaiyue, etc., are still under maintenance [13][14]. Overseas Supply - In Iran, multiple plants are operating at low loads, and two plants are shut down. The high - peak summer electricity demand in Iran has led to a natural gas shortage, which may affect methanol production. For example, Zagros PC's two sets of 330 - ton - per - year plants are operating at low loads, and Bushehr and Fanavaran PC are under maintenance [19]. - In other regions, Shell in Germany, Bioethanol in the Netherlands, and some plants in Malaysia, the US, Trinidad, Venezuela, New Zealand, and Chile also have various operating conditions such as shutdowns and low - load operations [19]. Demand Traditional Demand - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand has changed little. The operating rates of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have rebounded slightly, while those of MTBE and acetic acid have declined. Currently, it is the off - season for traditional demand, but overall, it still shows resilience. The current profit of traditional downstream sectors is low, and it remains to be seen whether the peak demand season will materialize [51]. - The downstream procurement volume has declined recently. The procurement of olefins has slowed down after the previous restocking, and the procurement volume of traditional demand has declined continuously, mainly due to the recent price decline suppressing buying sentiment and the impact of the current traditional off - season [56]. Olefin Demand - As of July 31, the MTO operating rate was 81%, and the operating rate of externally - sourced methanol - to - olefin plants was 76.4%. Mengda's MTO plant restarted at the end of the month, and Xingxing's MTO plant shut down for maintenance [40]. - The profit of East China's MTO plants has recently recovered, mainly due to the recent decline in methanol prices in East China. However, the relatively strong inland methanol prices have led to a recent decline in inland profits [40]. Profits - Coal - to - methanol profit has remained stable, natural - gas - to - methanol profit has remained in the red, and coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit has rebounded slightly. As of August 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 136.5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China was - 270 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 275 yuan/ton [32]. - MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. Inventory - This week, the port inventory is 91.5 tons, and the port's tradable inventory is 43.6 tons, continuing to accumulate. Ports are in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. With the shutdown of East China's MTO plants and the realization of increased imports, ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. Inland enterprise inventory has remained low and continued to decline last week. With more inland plants under maintenance and the large - scale procurement by an inland enterprise, the inland sentiment is expected to remain strong [74]. - The inventory of MTO sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The port procurement volume slowed down last week after the downstream's phased restocking. It is expected that procurement will increase slightly this week. The raw - material inventory of traditional downstream sectors has changed little [80]. Market Spreads - The basis of the East China main contract has remained weak recently. With ports continuing to accumulate inventory, the spot basis in East China has been continuously declining. It is expected that the basis will remain weak in July and August [89]. - The 9 - 1 month spread has been continuously declining. The weak reality has pressured the near - end price, but the macro situation and the improved expectation for methanol itself have made the far - end stronger. In the short term, the reverse arbitrage logic is expected to continue [89]. - The PP/L - 3MA spread has strengthened recently. After the methanol price reached a high and then declined, the spread first contracted and then expanded. In the short term, the volatility of the spread still depends on the methanol side, and short - term trading in bands is recommended [94]. Balance Sheet - The total methanol production, supply, and consumption show different trends throughout 2025. For example, the total production is expected to reach 742 tons in August 2025, with coal accounting for 614 tons, natural gas for 54 tons, and coke - oven gas for 74 tons. The total supply is expected to be 867 tons, and the consumption is expected to be 860 tons [98].

证券代码：600273 股票简称：嘉化能源 编号：2025-043 浙江嘉化能源化工股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 浙江嘉化能源化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"嘉化能源"）第十 届董事会第十三次会议通知于 2025 年 7 月 26 日以邮件方式发出，会议于 2025 年 8 月 5 日上午 10:00 时在公司南湖区南湖大道槜李路嘉南美地 1 号楼 29 层会 议室以现场和通讯相结合的方式召开。出席会议的董事应到 9 人，实到 9 人，本 次会议由公司董事长韩建红女士主持，公司全体监事及高级管理人员列席了本次 会议。本次董事会会议的召集、召开符合国家有关法律、法规和《公司章程》的 规定，会议决议合法有效。 （一）审议通过了《<2025 年半年度报告>全文及摘要》 本议案已经公司董事会审计委员会审议通过。 表决结果：9 票赞成，0 票反对，0 票弃权。 详情请见公司同日在指定媒体披露的《2025 年半年度报告》及摘要。 （二）审议通过了《关于 2025 年半年度利润分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and fluctuated upward today. The spot price rose steadily, and influenced by the rising futures, upstream factories had smooth sales and raised their quotes. In the future, the macro - market sentiment will gradually cool down, and the market is expected to return to fundamentals. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, the market will mainly fluctuate. The current export quota remains unchanged, and the follow - up domestic demand should focus on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories. The current rebound is considered short - term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the output has been below 200,000 tons recently. In the summer, the output is expected to decline slightly further. On the demand side, industrial demand is expected to improve, and it is still based on rigid demand in the short term. The top - dressing demand for agricultural corn has ended, and downstream purchases are mainly from the industrial sector. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to continue to increase this month. After the operating load increases, the demand for urea will increase. The market trading sentiment has improved, and the inventory decline has shown an inflection point, turning to inventory accumulation last week. The rebound today is mainly due to the rising cost - side prices, with coking coal driving up the prices of the coal - chemical industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 1,772 yuan/ton, up 2.67%. The trading volume was 136,100 lots (- 6,142 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 959 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,613 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 469 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,761 lots. Huishang Futures' net short positions increased by 1,184 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 3,361 lots [2] Spot - Since the weekend, the spot price has been in a downward state. Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the results were good with an increase in orders received. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On August 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable and weak, and the futures closing price declined slightly. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 8 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 187,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a pattern where the inland is stronger than the ports. Overseas methanol production has a short - term decline from the peak but remains at a relatively high level, leading to continued pressure on port arrivals and inventory accumulation. Inland coal - based methanol had concentrated maintenance in July, with supply at a low level, and some maintenance is still scheduled in August in the northwest. The overall demand in the inland has sufficient resilience, while the port basis is weak [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in the East China region, and various import price differences, such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between different international regions and CFR China [26][33]. 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - The report shows data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [35][36]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Multiple figures illustrate regional price differences, such as the price difference between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [40]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53]. Group 4: Market Data Inland Market - Coal price: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 460 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Production profit: Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 690 yuan/ton (+20). - Spot prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 2085 yuan/ton (+20), Inner Mongolia South Line is 2080 yuan/ton (+30), Shandong Linyi is 2360 yuan/ton (+15), Henan is 2220 yuan/ton (-15), Hebei is 2235 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Basis: Inner Mongolia North Line basis is 295 yuan/ton (+23), Lunan basis is 170 yuan/ton (+18), Henan basis is 30 yuan/ton (-12), Hebei basis is 105 yuan/ton (+3). - Inventory and orders: Longzhong inland factory inventory is 324,520 tons (-15,310), Northwest factory inventory is 216,000 tons (+8,000); Longzhong inland factory pending orders are 230,725 tons (-14,107), Northwest factory pending orders are 112,000 tons (-6,500) [1]. Port Market - Spot prices: Taicang methanol is 2368 yuan/ton (-17), Changzhou methanol is 2440 yuan/ton, Guangdong methanol is 2375 yuan/ton (-10). - Basis: Taicang basis is - 22 yuan/ton (-14), Guangdong basis is - 15 yuan/ton (-7). - International price: CFR China is 269 US dollars/ton (-3). - Import price difference: East China import price difference is 11 yuan/ton (+8). - Inventory: Longzhong port total inventory is 808,400 tons (+82,600), Jiangsu port inventory is 419,000 tons (+10,000), Zhejiang port inventory is 153,000 tons (+15,000), Guangdong port inventory is 155,000 tons (+32,500). - Downstream operating rate: Downstream MTO operating rate is 85.27% (+0.32%) [2]. Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 45 yuan/ton (-20), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 267 yuan/ton (-37), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 242 yuan/ton (-32), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 108 yuan/ton (+32), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 173 yuan/ton (+7), East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 62 yuan/ton (-17) [2]. Group 5: Strategies - Unilateral: Stay on the sidelines. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high. - Cross - variety: Narrow the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to be listed, and the price of peanuts has been continuously adjusted weakly this month. The new peanuts in Jiangxi and other places are listed in small quantities, and the procurement of new rice in the wholesale market is limited. The off - season procurement enthusiasm is low, and the support is insufficient. The drought in some areas may affect the growth of spring peanuts. The oil mills' purchase of oil peanuts is mostly suspended, the start - up rate is low, and the price of peanut oil is weakly adjusted. The enterprise start - up rate of peanut meal is low, and the downstream procurement is not active [6]. - The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. After the small amount of new peanuts are listed, the price has weakened. The short - term market price is likely to continue the weak trend. In the short term, the spot price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating for nearly a year. Given the continuous increase in planting area and unchanged demand, the short - term price is likely to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on whether the price will decline rapidly. Trend traders can try an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints - The planting area of new - season peanuts increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. The new peanuts in Jiangxi are listed in small quantities, and the price weakens after a small increase in supply. The short - term market price is likely to continue to decline. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and demand. Futures are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term focus is on the downward trend. Trend traders can use an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3.2 Market Review - **Overall Situation**: The peanut weighted index has been oscillating and declining this month, while the oil and fat sector has been oscillating and rising. Since September 2024, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating, and the price continued to fall this month with increased trading volume and a reduced decline, indicating some support at the lower limit of the range. The oil and fat sector is stronger than peanuts, and attention should be paid to its callback volume and price [8][10]. - **2510 Contract**: The price of the 2510 contract has been oscillating downward this month, with a rapid decline after rising. There is some buying support at around 8100, but whether the price can strengthen in the short term depends on the follow - up of buying [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Oil Mill Inventory and Start - up Rate**: The end - of - month inventory of peanut oil is 39,090 tons, a decrease of 510 tons from the previous month. The start - up rate of oil mills is 4.32%, a decrease of about 2.52% from the previous month [16]. - **Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha)**: The Baisha peanut price has been continuously weakening this month as the old peanut inventory is being consumed and the bargaining space has increased [19]. - **Peanut Oil Price Trend**: The average price of first - class ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this month is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last month [23]. - **Peanut Meal Price Trend**: The peanut meal price has been oscillating narrowly this month, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal have been oscillating upward [27]. - **Imported Peanut Quantity and Price**: The cold - storage new refined peanuts imported from Sudan are quoted at 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton with almost no stock. The Senegalese oil peanuts are quoted at 7,800 yuan/ton, with good quality at 8,000 yuan/ton and refined peanuts at 8,500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume is small. There will be few subsequent arrivals of African peanuts [31]. - **Market Price Index Compared with Last Month**: In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price is mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price is relatively stable [33]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report provides the data source for the basis spread of peanuts - Baisha but does not elaborate on the specific spread situation [35][37]

焦煤期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至1%，此前一度跌超4%。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【尿素周报（UR)】 宏观情绪降温，行情回归基本面 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-04 陈一凡 从业资格证号：F3054270 投资咨询证号：Z0015946 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 尿素:宏观情绪降温，行情回归基本面 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）产量：尿素产量135.48万吨，较上周增加0.01吨，环比涨0.01%；周均日产19.35万吨，较上周基本持平。周期内宁夏、安徽、河北等省产量有一定增 加，产量有减少的省份是河南、内蒙古、山西等。2、开工率：尿素产能利用率83.60%，环比涨0.01%。周期内环比开工上涨的省份在宁夏、甘肃、河北、 | | | | 安徽等，环比开工下降的省份在河南、内蒙古、山西等。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）山东临沂复合肥样本生产企业尿素需求量1130吨，较上周增加310吨，环比涨37.80%。短时复合肥开工小幅 ...

2025.08.04-08.08 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量213万吨，表观消费量218万吨，主要钢厂库存166万 吨，社会库存576万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中，资金面略偏空方。 2 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入红色量能阶梯区域第五周。 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理阶段，耐心等待新一轮中线趋势。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 耐心等待整理阶段完成。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨 ...