Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump administration's tariff policy has led to a significant increase in inflation in the U.S., with the Consumer Price Index rising by 2.7% year-on-year in June, up from 2.4% in May, marking the largest increase since February [1] - Prices for sensitive goods such as furniture, toys, and clothing have seen notable increases in June, indicating the direct impact of tariffs on consumer prices [1] - The data suggests that as some companies begin to pass on tariff costs to consumers, the public is starting to feel the effects of these tariffs [1] Group 2 - The broad nature of the U.S. tariff policy and its inconsistent implementation have disrupted markets, leading to increased uncertainty among businesses and consumers regarding the extent of future price increases [2] - Economists generally agree that tariffs will raise prices and harm economic growth, although there is disagreement on the magnitude of the impact and the timing of price increases [2]

Group 1 - Bill Gross warns that the threat of inflation "fire" in financial markets will outweigh the risks of economic growth and price decline "ice" [1][3] - Gross highlights that the current growth of government debt is a focal point, but its inflationary nature is not new, and its growth rate seems unstoppable [1][4] - He points out that recent tariff increases and the potential "Big Beautiful" plan mentioned by President Trump could further fuel inflation [1][4] Group 2 - Gross compares the opposing threats of inflation and deflation to "fire" and "ice," reflecting on historical economic struggles between these forces [3] - He notes that the growth of government debt, while not a new issue, is becoming increasingly inflationary over the long term [3][4] - The past decade has seen new "accelerants" such as shadow banking platforms and excess liquidity created by the Federal Reserve, which have fueled speculative investments [4] Group 3 - Gross warns that investors should be cautious of rising interest rates, which could offset productivity gains from advancements in artificial intelligence [5] - He calculates that the 10-year Treasury yield should be around 4.25% based on current consumer price inflation of 2.4% [5][6] - The risk in the long-term bond market is accumulating, with increased volatility in 30-year Treasury yields compared to shorter maturities [5][6] Group 4 - Gross emphasizes that the risk associated with long-term bonds is extremely high, noting that a small increase in the 30-year Treasury yield could erase an entire year's interest income for investors [6] - He concludes that while the situation may not be a raging fire, the heat is above normal levels, indicating significant market risks [6]

美联储-洛根：基准预期是货币政策需要继续保持紧缩一段时间，以抑制通胀。柯林斯：现在是美联储 在货币政策方面保持积极耐心的时候。关税将在下半年推动通胀上升，核心通胀率预计到年底将维持在 约3%。 德国商业银行分析师Vincent Stamer在一份报告中表示，法国政府为遏制财政赤字所提出的雄心勃勃的 计划，可能因议会分裂而导致总理贝鲁下台。贝鲁周二表示，他希望通过削减约440亿欧元的支出，来 将法国财政赤字从今年预计超过5%的水平降至明年4.6%的水平。根据该计划，削减支出的措施包括取 消两个公共假期以及冻结养老金和公务员薪资。然而，这些措施预计将非常不得人心，而由于贝鲁领导 的政府在国民议会中并未拥有多数席位，议会稍后极有可能通过对政府的不信任投票将其拉下台。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 115217 0 外运华东虹桥 197556 0 中工美供应链 541262 -8792 合计 854035 -8792 广东 深圳威豹 358754 -1378 总计 1222959 -10170 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货7月16日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计1212789千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少101 ...

技术面：黄金日线收小阴线，重心开始下移，但整体是震荡走势。4小时周期长期均线支撑有效，短期可能震荡下形，日内可关 注上方3346美元一线的压力。 原油方面： 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金继续小幅下挫，短期和中期形态都有走坏的迹象，当下可能是中期调整的开始。最新的通胀数据压低了美联储降息的 概率，使得美元与黄金此消彼长。 美国6月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上升0.3%，同比上升2.7%，均与市场预期一致，分别较5月的0.1%和2.4%的涨幅有所 上升。但0.3%是2月以来的最大环比涨幅，2.7%的同比涨幅也为3月以来最高。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，6月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%，高于前值的2.8%。整体而言，美国通胀明显抬 头，大大降低了美联储降息的可能，7月降息概率已经下降至不足5%。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，今年美联储可能只降息一次，美联储和特朗普的关系会更加恶化，市场的不确定性 也会增加，长期来看仍利多黄金。 技术面：原油日线连收小阴线，形成下跌C浪的概率很大。4小时周期上行结构完成，短线已经跌破均线支撑，震荡下行的概率 很大，日内可关注上方67美元一线的压力。 隔夜 ...

在当下经济前景迷雾重重之际，美国波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯为美联储的政策定调注入了一股冷静力量。她公开强调，面对不确定性，美联储对调整基 准利率应持"积极耐心"的审慎态度。这一表态为当前货币政策路径提供了清晰的注脚。 柯林斯在全美商业经济协会活动上的演讲，透露出她对当前美国经济韧性的信心。尽管关税政策引发市场对通胀抬升的普遍忧虑，但柯林斯却带来了相对温 和的评估——关税的整体影响可能不会如市场早前担忧的那般极端。她指出，企业具备灵活调整利润率的能力，而家庭消费支出也展现韧性，这两大缓冲机 制有望减轻关税带来的价格冲击。 美联储内部对此存在明显分歧。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比此前警告，新关税政策扰乱了通胀前景，增加了支持降息的决策难度。而美联储理事沃勒则持相反 观点，他上周重申，美联储可能考虑在七月降息，理由是他认为关税引发的通胀将是暂时现象，当前政策过于紧缩。 她进一步剖析了关税传导机制：进口价格上升确实会推高通胀，预计年底核心通胀率可能接近百分之三，同时对美国经济增长和就业产生抑制作用。但关键 在于，企业和消费者的缓冲能力改变了冲击的烈度。柯林斯认为，关税对劳动力市场和经济增长的不利影响因此可能更为有限，不会导 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, reflecting a cautious approach amid uncertainties related to Trump's policies, opting to wait for clearer signals for potential rate cuts [1][3] - The Fed's description of economic uncertainty changed from "further increasing" to "somewhat decreasing but still high," indicating a slightly more optimistic outlook while remaining vigilant [1] - Economic forecasts show a downward revision in GDP, an upward revision in unemployment rate, and an upward revision in inflation, suggesting a more complex financial landscape in the second half of the year [1][5] Group 2 - The dot plot indicates a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate cut expectations for 2026, reflecting a more cautious stance on future economic trends [3] - Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks were hawkish, noting that while job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remains low, and he anticipates significant inflationary pressures in the coming months [3] - Following the FOMC decision, U.S. Treasury yields rose while the stock market declined, with market expectations for rate cuts in September and December contrasting with the Fed's cautious outlook [3][5] Group 3 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is considered low, with the Fed likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to persistent inflation risks and a slow rise in unemployment [5] - Factors such as tariffs affecting consumer prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may contribute to upward pressure on inflation [6] - Despite an upward trend in initial jobless claims, seasonal factors are likely influencing this increase, necessitating close monitoring of future jobless claims data [6]

各位朋友，近美国6月的通胀数据出炉了，说实话，这次的数据没有什么惊喜，也没有什么爆点——基本上符合市场预期。核心通胀连续第五个月没有超 出预期，走势还是挺平稳的。 你要是觉得通胀不会太严重，也有理由啊，"企业为了留住客户，在需求疲软的情况下也不敢乱涨价，通胀传导可能会非常慢，甚至影响不大。" 所以现在的情况是，谁也说服不了谁，数据也没法让某一派完全站上风口。 Timiraos还提到，6月这份通胀数据，其实不算特别温和，比5月稍微硬点。基础物价的环比涨幅是0.23%，听起来没啥，但和过去12个月的平均差不多。 所以这也说明，6月这个数据就是个正常表现，不惊不喜。 那接下来怎么办？政策制定者要看后面几个月的数据，尤其是7月和8月。因为那时候，关税传导的效果才可能真正显现。如果到时候物价真的明显上涨 了，那就说明关税的影响来了，美联储可能就得更谨慎地评估通胀风险了。 不过，这并不代表市场就能松口气了。大因为现在很多人都在关注一个问题：特朗普加的那些关税，怎么还没"发力"？按理说，这应该会推高商品价格 吧？但目前来看，这种传导效应还没完全展现出来。 这时候，出场的是"新美联储通讯社"的记者Nick Timiraos。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 全球多国正通过双边谈判、WTO 申诉、反制清单 及技术管制 应对美国 8 月 1 | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 日关税生效压力，同时俄乌冲突衍生贸易威胁加剧不确定性。中长期，多国政 | | | | 策宽松，多国央行继续购买黄金，未来不确定性仍然较多，战略配置。【765-795】 | | | | 白银供给有缺口，经济需求有支撑，各国宽财政刺激工业需求，多头积极，白 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 银盘面强势，长期看受基本金属和黄金价格情绪影响较大，短期关注前 9000 支 撑的有效性做好仓位控制。【9000-9375】 | | | | 美铜进口关税冲击影响边际消退，需求淡季叠加非美铜库存紧张预期减弱，或推动 | | 铜 | 震荡 | 短期隐形库存显性化，警惕需求证伪带来回调压力，但是预计铜深跌幅度有限，以 回调后逢低试多为主，中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77000，79000】 | | | | 锌精矿加工费持续修复，海外钢铁反倾销影响镀锌钢材需求，特朗普关税不确 | | 锌 | 承压 | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) -3.74 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 776.66 | 9152 | -73 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 2438 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 200708 | 430521 | -19594 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) 830 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 140521 | 144154 | -2822 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 28872 | 1212789 | -10170 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) -3.4 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 771.4 | 9103 | -43 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) 0.34 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | -5.26 | -49 | 30 | | 供需情况 | 黄金ETF持仓(日,吨) 0 白银E ...