Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to announce a new monetary policy framework aimed at addressing the current high inflation environment and redefining the balance between price stability and employment promotion [1][2]. Inflation and Employment Market Changes - Since 2020, the global economy has faced unprecedented shocks, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy framework focused on ensuring broad and inclusive employment growth before inflation concerns [2]. - The post-pandemic economic recovery has not been smooth, resulting in the highest inflation rates in decades, which has forced the Federal Reserve to reassess its policy objectives [2]. - Currently, the inflation rate in the U.S. has reached its highest level in 40 years, significantly impacting the lives of ordinary citizens and presenting challenges for businesses [2]. Key Content of the New Framework - The new framework is expected to prioritize inflation control, indicating that the Federal Reserve will closely monitor inflation data and may implement stricter monetary policy measures if necessary [3]. - The framework will not completely abandon the "inclusive employment" concept from 2020 but will aim to promote healthy employment growth based on inflation control [3]. - The new framework may revert to a "classic inflation targeting" approach, directly focusing on a 2% inflation target, which could enhance policy transparency and predictability, thereby boosting market confidence [3]. Impact of Policy Adjustments - The announcement of the new framework is likely to have profound effects on financial markets, with a significant reduction in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the short term, potentially affecting bond and stock market performance [4]. - The implementation of the new framework may influence the prices of safe-haven assets like gold, as high inflation typically drives demand for gold as a hedge, but successful inflation control could lead to decreased demand and lower prices [4]. - The new framework will also impact the international monetary system, as the Federal Reserve's policy moves are closely monitored by other central banks, potentially prompting them to adjust their monetary policies in response to high inflation and employment challenges [4].

在另一场采访中，施密德表示，7月生产者价格指数(PPI)显示批发通胀以三年来最快的速度加速， 这"有点令人吃惊"。他指出，政策制定者将在本月晚些时候以及9月会议前密切关注消费者价格数据。 除了施密德之外，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也认为当前的货币政策"是略微限制性的、而不是高度限 制性的"。他表示，美联储应该能够在2026年的某个时候将利率降至中性水平——即利率既不刺激经济 也不抑制经济的水平。他还表示，他对利率的看法仍是今年仅进行一次降息。 在经济前景不确定的情况下，博斯蒂克席位利率的轨迹保持单一方向，而不是在加息和降息之间摇摆。 他预计，今年晚些时候会对经济前景有更多清晰的判断。 智通财经APP获悉，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德(Jeff Schmid)表示，他认为通胀风险略高于劳动力市场风 险。尽管如此，在政策制定者考虑下月是否调整利率之际，货币政策总体上处于合适的位置。 施密德表示："当你逐渐接近双重目标的最佳数值时，实际上在边际上决定政策利率应该走向哪里会变 得更加困难。"他表示，当前围绕何时降息的辩论核心在于个别政策制定者是否认为政策过于紧缩。他 补充称："我认为它们是略微限制性的。""我认为我们走在一条 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 21, gold prices experienced a sudden drop, with London gold falling over $20, settling at $3331.38 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.5% [1] Group 2: US-EU Trade Agreement - On August 21, the White House announced that the US and EU reached an agreement on a trade framework, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, and digital trade barriers [3] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, seeds, soybean oil, and meat products [3] - The US will apply the higher of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on most goods from the EU, which includes automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber [3] Group 3: Future Tariff Adjustments - Starting September 1, 2025, the US will only apply MFN tariffs to certain EU products, including non-renewable natural resources, all aircraft and aircraft parts, and generic drugs and their raw materials [4] - The US and EU have agreed to consider additional sectors and products that are important to their economies and value chains for inclusion under MFN tariffs [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Impact - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated concerns among officials regarding the inflation outlook in the US, leading to reduced market expectations for a rate cut in September [5] - The minutes revealed that many officials noted the overall inflation rate in the US remains above the long-term target of 2%, with tariff impacts becoming more evident in economic data [6] - During the July monetary policy meeting, 9 out of 12 voting members supported maintaining interest rates, while two members expressed differing opinions on the decision, marking a notable occurrence in over 30 years [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is highly anticipated, as it marks his eighth and final address at this significant event, with potential implications for financial markets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Past Speeches - Historical data indicates that after Powell's previous seven speeches at Jackson Hole, the average increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 21 basis points, while the S&P 500 index averaged a decline of nearly 2% [1]. - In 2022, following Powell's speech warning about the potential "pain" from tightening policies, the S&P 500 index plummeted by 12%, the dollar surged by 5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield skyrocketed by 75 basis points [1]. - Significant increases in bond yields were also observed after speeches in 2018, 2021, and 2023, with the 2023 speech leading to a rise of over 20 basis points in yields [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Context - Market expectations for the Fed's September monetary policy are intensifying, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite inflation remaining approximately 1 percentage point above the Fed's 2% target [4]. - The theme of this year's Jackson Hole conference focuses on the labor market's transformation, with analysts noting that a low unemployment rate does not necessarily indicate a hawkish stance from the Fed [4]. - Historical trends suggest that a rising unemployment rate could prompt the Fed to shift towards a more accommodative policy quickly [4]. Group 3: Powell's Final Address - This speech is significant as it is Powell's last before his term ends in May next year, occurring during a tumultuous period for the Fed [4][5]. - There is speculation that Powell may use this opportunity to reflect on his tenure and the lessons learned from the pandemic, particularly regarding inflation control [5][7]. - The pressure from former President Trump regarding interest rate cuts adds complexity to Powell's potential messaging during this farewell address [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among its officials, particularly concerning inflation risks over employment concerns [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][4]. - The July non-farm employment data was notably weaker than expected, and previous months' data were revised downwards, which undermined the Fed's stance on not lowering interest rates [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The July FOMC meeting minutes indicated that most officials preferred to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with only two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [1][5]. - The Fed's focus remains on controlling inflation, with officials expressing concerns that tariff policies could lead to prolonged inflationary pressures [2][6]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased, with approximately 82% probability according to CME FedWatch Tool, despite a slight decline from previous levels [4][6]. - The internal division within the Fed between hawkish and dovish views is evident, with a significant number of officials remaining cautious about inflation risks [5][6]. Political Pressure - The White House, particularly President Trump, has been exerting pressure on the Fed, calling for the resignation of certain officials and pushing for a more accommodative monetary policy [1][7]. - Despite political pressures, the Fed's decision-making is expected to remain primarily data-driven, with its independence likely to endure in the short term [7].

Group 1 - Investors are focusing on the impacts of tariffs, the effectiveness of China's antitrust policies, US-India trade tensions, and whether the Bank of Japan is lagging behind [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that investors are more optimistic about the macro outlook for the US and Asia compared to the bank's baseline scenario [1] Group 2 - The current tariff on Asian goods has increased significantly to 25% from 5% at the beginning of the year, with expectations of a notable slowdown in exports by the second half of 2025 [2] - Despite the tariff increases, investors believe that growth in the US and Asia will not show significant deceleration in the latter half of 2025 [2][4] - Non-tech exports from Asia have stabilized after a decline in April and May, with a focus on non-tech exports due to tech products being largely exempt from tariffs [2][5] Group 3 - Exporters have not borne much of the tariff burden, as the prices of goods imported from Asia to the US remain higher than levels seen in February 2025 [7] - The effective tariff rate on Asian imports has risen by 20 percentage points, yet the prices of these goods are only slightly lower than in February 2025 [10] Group 4 - Capital expenditure momentum in Asia appears to be stabilizing, with evidence suggesting a slowdown in capital goods imports since May 2025 [12] - South Korea has committed $350 billion in investments, with actual equity commitments expected to be lower than $17.5 billion, while Japan has announced $550 billion in loans and guarantees, with only 12% expected to be actual investments [13] Group 5 - The increase in tariffs is expected to enhance the transmission of price increases to core goods, with indications that tariffs are driving prices higher in categories such as automobiles and household goods [16] - The US core PCE is projected to peak at 0.39% monthly by August 2025, with core CPI expected to reach a higher peak of 0.45% [16] Group 6 - Asian central banks are currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations of further rate cuts as trade policy uncertainties decrease [17] - The report anticipates additional rate cuts in the remaining months of 2025 and into 2026 across various Asian central banks [17] Group 7 - The effectiveness of China's antitrust efforts faces challenges, with recent signals from policymakers indicating potential follow-up actions to address deflationary pressures [18] - The current macroeconomic environment is less favorable for addressing deflation compared to previous years, with a need for a rebalancing from investment to consumption [18][24] Group 8 - The impact of tariffs on India's growth is expected to be mitigated, with only 2% of India's GDP affected by direct and indirect channels from tariffs [19] - The Indian government estimates that only 55% of its exports to the US will be impacted by tariffs, allowing for some exemptions [19] Group 9 - There is a growing divergence between macroeconomic indicators and micro-level data in India, with corporate revenue growth slowing while nominal GDP growth remains high [21] - Factors such as recent monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India are expected to support economic re-inflation in the coming quarters [21] Group 10 - The Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance due to moderate demand-side inflation pressures, with expectations of no rate hikes in the near term [22] - The Japanese economy is still recovering from the pandemic, with private consumption and capital expenditure below pre-COVID levels [22] Group 11 - Asian investors are reducing net purchases of US stocks, indicating a shift in focus towards European equities and increased foreign exchange hedging on US positions [23] - The ongoing concerns about the US macro outlook are prompting Asian investors to reconsider their asset allocations [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that GBP/USD has been declining this week as traders adopt defensive positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - The US dollar has strengthened due to market expectations of a hawkish stance from Powell, leading to a tense market environment [3] - The recent data does not support a pre-commitment to rate cuts in September, as initial jobless claims continue to improve and inflation data rises [3] Group 2 - The UK central bank's last meeting was hawkish, and recent data, including CPI, has exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience and ongoing inflation pressure [3] - Despite a weak labor market, the central bank remains focused on inflation, aiming to return to a 2% target, with core inflation remaining above 3% since 2021 [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that GBP/USD faced rejection at the key level of 1.3590 and may continue to decline towards 1.3368, where buyers might set risk entry points for a rebound [6] - The 4-hour chart shows a slight downtrend, suggesting sellers may continue to exert pressure, while buyers aim for a breakout to the upside [7] Group 4 - Upcoming catalysts include the release of the latest US initial jobless claims data and PMI figures, with a focus on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium [8]

各位朋友，晚上好。我是帮主郑重。近日市场波动加剧，标普500已连续四个交易日收跌，这一信号值得高度警惕。凭借20年财经观察经验，我深知这种 连续回调往往预示更深层次的调整正在酝酿。今天就来为大家梳理背后的核心动因。 ⚠️ 首要焦点仍是美联储政策动向。最新会议纪要显示，委员对通胀的担忧远超就业，尤其关注特朗普关税政策可能带来的冲击。这一态度暗示货币政策 可能进一步转向鹰派，加息预期再度升温。通胀犹如悬顶之剑，一旦失控，市场恐将面临剧烈调整。 科技巨头英特尔计划折价增资，同样引发忧虑。折价往往意味着企业融资困难或市场信心不足，当日英特尔股价大跌近7%，不仅反映个体困境，更折射 整个科技板块承压。作为市场风向标，科技股走弱可能引发资金大规模调仓。 更值得警惕的是，橡树资本明确警告美股处于"泡沫初期"。标普500市盈率高企，巴菲特指标亦创历史峰值，市场估值已明显偏离合理区间，回调风险正 在累积。 其他市场中，中概股走势出现分化，富途控股上涨而台积电走低，反映同一板块内部分歧加剧。大宗商品方面，WTI原油因地缘局势与库存下降而走高， 可能进一步推升通胀；黄金攀升至3350美元附近，显示避险情绪正在升温。欧洲富时100指 ...

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：8月21日凌晨两点，美联储公布7月会议纪要。多数美联储官员在会议中强调，通胀风险已压倒对劳动力市场的担忧，关税政策加剧了 委员会内部的分歧。 政策制定者将利率维持不变，是因为上半年的经济活动放缓，导致市场前景不确定性升高。 会议纪要显示，数名官员认为通胀与就业的风险大致平衡，另外有官员则更担忧劳动力市场，沃勒和鲍曼以就业市场恶化为由投下反对票。 智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，纪要公布后，9月降息25个基点的概率由92%回落至81%。目前市场仍在聚焦鲍威尔在央行年会的讲话。 技术面：日线上，昨日收阳线，价格维持震荡格局。1小时级别，价格突破60/120日均线，市场出现转势信号，今日关注下方支撑3335美元，上方 关注压力3358美元。 供需方面，能源机构预测，未来数月乃至2026年石油供应将远超需求。国际能源署（IEA）预计，2025年全球石油产量将增加250万桶，达到1.055 亿桶；2026年将再增加190万桶。 美国能源信息署（EIA）预计，今年和明年原油库存将大幅增加。同时，预计今年全球石油消费量为1.0374亿桶，明年为1.0444亿桶。 综合来看，昨日EIA数据库存明显减少， ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 SPDR黄金信托（GLD）报告：截至8月20日持仓量下降0.42%（即4.01吨），至958.20吨。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 【基本面消息】 数据显示，8月21日上海黄金现货价格报价773.25元/克，相较于期货主力价格（775.12元/克）贴水1.87 元/克。 凌晨美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反对。纪要体 现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数还是认为，通胀上 升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。与会者指出，在 《GENIUS法案》通过之后，稳定币的使用可能会增加，并可能有助于提升支付系统的效率。他们还表 示，稳定币可能会推高对其支撑资产的需求，其中包括美国国债。 美国总统特朗普喊话美联储理事库克，称其必须立即辞职，从而进一步加大对美联储的施压力度。此 前，美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长普尔特指控库克在两笔抵押贷款中存在欺诈行为，并呼吁司法 部对其展开调查。普尔特称，这些指控让特朗普有了解雇库克的理由。 | 8月21日 | 收盘价（元 ...