仲量联行项目策略及顾问部资深董事李远峰表示:中美贸易摩擦升温与关税争端持续发酵，为香港经济 前景蒙上阴影，楼市不确定性加剧下，买家避险心态上升。面对潜在利率波动与宏观经济不稳，准买家 普遍采取防守策略:或推迟入市计划，或转投面积细小、入场门槛较低的单位，甚至刻意买细一个码以 对冲潜在贬值风险。加上，政府大幅减少针对400万港元以下物业的印花税，令细价物业成为跌市中风 险较低的选择。对发展商而言，现时市况疲弱，细价物业可以针对更广泛的客户群，销售较有保证，预 期短期至中期而言，发展商仍会较倾向兴建细单位。 楼市踏入下行周期前，内地及本地各类型发展商均积极吸纳地皮，形成百家争鸣的情况。然而，过去三 年楼价下滑，普遍发展商的投地意欲不大。大型发展商则尚有不少土地储备，造就2025-2026年间， 60%的新盘单位来自新地(00016)、长实(01113)及恒地(00012)三大发展商，较2023-2024年不足40%的比 例显著提升。 仲量联行研究部资深董事钟楚如指出:现时新盘货尾仍不乏其他发展商所发展的新盘项目，待货尾逐步 消化后，主要供应量来自三大发展商的形势将更明显，中期而言，将有助发展商调节推盘节奏，令主要 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke futures contracts 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to weak". The overall view is a sideways trading approach [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: The price of coking coal has been continuously declining, and it is expected to maintain a weak sideways movement after the holiday [5]. - **Supply**: As of the week ending May 2, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 80.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons, with positive growth for 6 consecutive weeks and 5.7 million tons higher than the same period last year. In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and Shanxi's coal production remained high. Although the import volume decreased slightly year - on - year, the reduction was expected to be limited, so the supply pressure remained high [5]. - **Demand**: In the week ending May 2, the total daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons. Due to Sino - US trade frictions and the sluggish performance of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, the long - term demand for coking coal is still a concern [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The main futures contract of coke maintains a low - level sideways movement, with intense multi - empty game [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Compared with coking coal, the short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable. Although the molten iron output remains high and the short - term demand is okay, affected by overseas risks and cost pressure from coking coal, the market sentiment is not optimistic [6]. - **Macro Factors**: Since April, Sino - US trade frictions have been反复, and there is strong uncertainty about future tariff disputes. At the same time, domestic demand - boosting policies are expected to be introduced, such as the Politburo meeting on April 25 proposing more active macro - policies [6].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 7 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-7） | | | | 周，全球铁矿发运或季节性回升，钢厂高炉复产带动铁水产量维持高位， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁矿：今日一揽子金融政策支持稳市场预期，黑色夜盘受到支撑。未来几 | | | | | 全国日均铁水产量 245.42 万吨，环比增 1.07 万吨。按目前铁水走势看，5 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 月份将是钢材产量的峰值，同时钢材出口受关税扰动风险上升，国内需求 | | | | | 步入季节性淡季，钢厂销售压力加剧或导致利润收缩，自发性减产还是被 | | | | | 动减产，其减产的总量都对原料端形成利空。短期铁矿基本面矛盾不突出， | | | | | 盘面反弹态势，中长期来看，考虑到钢厂限产，铁水或见顶回落以及中美 | | | | | 贸易摩擦延续，铁矿 09 合约逢高试空，关注政策落地情况。 | | | | | 煤焦：进口方面，蒙古口岸通关量维持低位，叠加竞拍市场持续低迷，蒙 | | | 煤焦 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 5 月 6 日 融资资金有望回流，小盘成长风格回归 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202505） 进入 5 月后， A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束， 市场风格的季节性效应弱化，综合 A 股盈利增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和 概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境友好、以及融资资金可能逐渐回流，我们认为 A 股风格有望向小盘成长风格漂移。 ❑风格展望：小盘成长风格有望回归。进入 5 月后， A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、 业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束，市场风格的季节性效应弱化，综合 A 股盈利 增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境、以及 A 股增 量资金结构变化，我们认为 A 股风格有望逐渐向小盘成长风格漂移。具体来说， 第一，2025 年一季度 A 股上市公司非金融石化企业净利润增速回升转正，从历史 来看，这比较有利于短期小盘成长风格表现。第二，目前中美双方就关税问题处 于僵持局面，但贸易摩擦最悲观的阶段已经过去，随着时间推移，中美开始磋商 的概率增大，不确定性风险会逐渐下降。第三，非农数据公布后，市场开始预期 6 月美联 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a continued downward trend for the glass market, maintaining a bearish outlook for the 09 contract [2][3] Core Viewpoints - In April, the glass market showed a downward trend due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, insufficient demand during the traditional peak season, and high - level inventory. The supply slightly increased, and the demand from large processing plants improved slightly, but engineering orders were still poor. The price of coal decreased, and the profit of the coal - gasification process improved. The soda ash market had a short - term expectation of reduced production, but the upward rebound space was limited. Looking ahead, the Shahe gas switch plan is a negative event, and the glass market is expected to continue to decline [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review: Weak Operation and Strengthening Spread - **Price Trends**: As of April 30, the 5mm float glass market prices were 1,250 yuan/ton in North China (-10), 1,180 yuan/ton in Central China (0), and 1,370 yuan/ton in East China (0). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,082 yuan/ton last Friday, down 72 yuan from the previous week [13][14] - **Spread Analysis**: As of April 30, the spread between soda ash and glass futures was 270 yuan/ton (+51), the basis of the glass 09 contract was 118 yuan/ton (+53), and the 09 - 01 spread was -49 yuan/ton (-10) [15] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Coal Price Reduction and Weak Real Estate - **Import and Export**: In March, China's float glass imports were 389,800 weight - cases (year - on - year - 11.69%), and exports were 1,597,100 weight - cases (year - on - year + 109.73%) [23] - **Profit**: The cost and profit of different glass - making processes changed. The natural - gas process had a cost of 1,606 yuan/ton (-1) and a gross profit of -236 yuan/ton (+1); the coal - gasification process had a cost of 1,168 yuan/ton (-4) and a gross profit of 82 yuan/ton (-6); the petroleum - coke process had a cost of 1,141 yuan/ton (-33) and a gross profit of 39 yuan/ton (+33) [29] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,705 tons/day (+200) last Friday. There were 225 production lines in operation, with 2 cold - repairs and 2 ignition restarts in April [31] - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 64,989,000 weight - cases (-484,000). Inventory changes varied by region, with increases in North China, South China, and Shahe factory warehouses, and decreases in Central China, East China, and Southwest China [39] - **Deep - processing**: The national average production - sales ratio of float glass was 100.48% (+0.64%), the LOW - E glass开工率 was 50.7% (+0.8%) on May 2, and the glass deep - processing order days were 9.3 days (+1.1) in mid - April [41] - **Demand - Automobile**: In March, China's automobile production was 3.006 million vehicles (month - on - month + 903,000, year - on - year + 319,000), and sales were 2.915 million vehicles (month - on - month + 786,000, year - on - year + 221,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 991,000, with a penetration rate of 51.1% (month - on - month + 1.6%) [52] - **Demand - Real Estate**: In March, real - estate investment decreased year - on - year. New construction, construction, and sales data were poor. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from April 21 to April 27 was 1.93 million square meters (month - on - month + 29%, year - on - year - 25%) [57] - **Cost - Soda Ash - Price**: As of April 30, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1,500 yuan/ton in North China (0), 1,450 yuan/ton in East China (-25), 1,400 yuan/ton in Central China (-25), and 1,575 yuan/ton in South China (0). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,352 yuan/ton (-21), and the basis in Central China was 48 yuan/ton (+21) [65] - **Cost - Soda Ash - Profit**: By the end of the month, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda - ash enterprises was 1,521 yuan/ton (-30), with a gross profit of 35 yuan/ton (+17); the co - production process cost was 1,864 yuan/ton (-34), with a gross profit of 258 yuan/ton (+3) [66] - **Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 755,100 tons (week - on - week - 50), including 415,500 tons of heavy soda ash (week - on - week - 100) and 339,600 tons of light soda ash (week - on - week + 50). The warehouse receipt quantity was 3,949 (week - on - week - 341). As of April 30, the national factory - level inventory of soda ash was 1.6722 million tons (week - on - week - 20,700) [84] - **Cost - Soda Ash - Production and Sales**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 439,400 tons (week - on - week + 57,800), and for light soda ash was 336,000 tons (week - on - week - 19,700). The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 102.69% (week - on - week + 5.11%) [86] 3. Investment Strategy - **Strategy**: The report recommends a "short 5, long 9" strategy. Considering the current situation of the glass market, including the weak demand during the off - season and the limited upward momentum of the market, this strategy is proposed [88]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the disposable and reusable surgical laser fiber industry in China, focusing on market trends, pricing, competition, and major companies involved [2] - The market size for disposable and reusable surgical laser fibers in China is projected to reach 2.627 billion RMB in 2024, while the global market is expected to reach 8.475 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.75%, reaching 11.85 billion RMB by 2030 [2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The disposable and reusable surgical laser fiber industry is defined and categorized, with applications in various surgical fields such as head and neck surgery, urology, and gynecology [2] - The industry is segmented by product type into disposable and reusable laser fibers, and by end-use applications [2] - The report includes an analysis of the industry supply chain, detailing upstream and downstream sectors [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The current market size of the disposable and reusable surgical laser fiber industry in China is highlighted, along with its competitive landscape [3] - Major companies in the industry include OmniGuide, Boston Scientific, Cook Medical, Olympus, Coloplast, HealthTronic, Potent Medical, Convergent Laser Technologies, and Orlight Laser [3] - The report presents market share, sales volume, revenue, pricing, and profit margins of leading companies in the industry [3] Group 3: Regional Development - The report provides an overview of the development status of the disposable and reusable surgical laser fiber industry across different regions in China, including North, East, South, and Central China [4] - Each region's development strengths and weaknesses are analyzed to understand local market dynamics [4] Group 4: Product Segmentation - The report details the sales volume and market share of different product types within the disposable and reusable surgical laser fiber industry [6] - It also discusses the sales revenue and pricing trends for both disposable and reusable laser fibers [6] Group 5: Application Market Analysis - The report analyzes the sales volume and revenue of disposable and reusable surgical laser fibers in various application fields, including head and neck surgery, urology, and gynecology [5] - It assesses the current application status and potential growth in these fields [5] Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The report evaluates the geographical distribution of major companies in the disposable and reusable surgical laser fiber industry and their international competitiveness [6] - It identifies companies with significant global influence and analyzes their strengths and weaknesses in the competitive landscape [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月期间国内主产区安监环境平稳，山西煤炭产量维持高位，钢联统计的 523 家炼焦煤 矿精煤产量月内持续回升，而进口量虽同比或有小幅下滑，但减量预计有限，焦煤供应压力依然居 高不下。此外，中美贸易摩擦压制黑色金属终端产品出口，叠加地产、基建表现低迷，内需支撑有 限，焦煤中长期需求担忧仍存。供需数据方面，根据钢联统计，截至 5 月 2 日当周，全国 523 家炼 焦煤矿精煤日均产量 80.4 万吨，周环比增 0.7 万吨，连续第 6 周录得正增长，较去年同期产量偏 高 5.7 万吨。进口方面，4 月 21 至 26 日，甘其毛都口岸累计通关车数 3877 车，周环比减少 2329 车。需求方面，5 月 2 日当周，焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 114.41 万吨，周环比增加 0.09 万 吨。综上，焦煤价格持续下挫，且其供应宽松局面并未扭转，基本面整体依然偏空，叠加当前宏观 向上驱 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 2017 to January 2020, the credit bond market evolved in four stages under the intertwined influence of Sino - US trade frictions and policy hedging, presenting a pattern of "strengthened safe - haven properties of interest - rate bonds and re - structured risk pricing of credit bonds" [3][21]. - The market logic gradually returned to fundamental verification in the later stage, with external shocks having a diminishing marginal impact. Policy hedging effectiveness, credit repair rhythm, and cross - border capital flows became key variables affecting the market trend [12]. - After the implementation of the 54% tariff policy on April 2, 2025, the core logic of the credit bond market shifted to "safe - haven trading + policy hedging". Short - term high - grade varieties are favored, and in the short - term, safe - haven sentiment will dominate the market. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to economic data and the possible impact of the valuation repair of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds [100][105]. 3. Summary by Directory First Stage: Anticipation Disturbance Period (August 2017 - June 2018) - **Interest Rate Curve Differentiation and Credit Risk Pricing Re - structuring**: The bond market was in a "loose money, tight credit" policy combination. The short - end of the interest - rate bond market benefited from the targeted RRR cut in April 2018, while the long - end was suppressed by factors such as rising international oil prices, Fed rate hikes, and regulatory tightening. Private enterprise default amounts increased, and investors' behaviors diverged. The inability to transform "loose money" into "loose credit" intensified the structural contradictions in the credit bond market [22][24][25]. - **Credit Bond Financing Fluctuations due to Trade Friction Evolution**: Credit bond financing fluctuated. It declined initially due to trade friction concerns and financial risk prevention policies, then rebounded briefly in early 2018 due to liquidity release policies, and finally decreased again after the addition of tariffs and the implementation of the asset management new rules [29][30]. - **Overall Rise in Credit Bond Yields and Widening of Credit Spreads**: Credit bond yields rose overall, and credit spreads widened. Market concerns about credit risks spread from local industries to the whole market, especially in export - oriented industries. Although the targeted RRR cut in April 2018 curbed risk spread, private enterprise default events increased, and the pricing logic of the credit bond market became more complex [36][37]. - **Initial Appearance of Credit Bond Default Pressure with Wide Industry Distribution**: Credit bond defaults and extensions increased slightly. Defaults were no longer concentrated in traditional over - capacity industries but spread to more sectors. Policy uncertainties affected corporate financing efficiency and solvency [42][43]. Second Stage: Policy Hedging Period (July - November 2018) - **Differentiated Efficiency of Interest - Credit Transmission under Policy Hedging**: As Sino - US trade frictions escalated, domestic policies shifted. The central bank's RRR cut pushed short - term interest rates down, but long - term interest rates rebounded due to factors such as local government bond issuance and CPI increase. The "bull - steep" market of interest - rate bonds and the financing repair of credit bonds diverged [48]. - **Industry Financing Differentiation between Trade Pressure and Domestic Demand Hedging**: Different industries' credit bond financing showed a differentiated trend. Export - oriented industries such as commercial trade and light manufacturing saw a decline in net financing, while the public utility industry benefited from domestic demand support and had an increase in net financing [51]. - **Overall Decline in Credit Bond Yields and Narrow - range Fluctuation of Credit Spreads**: After the formal implementation of tariffs, the market's pricing of trade frictions became less sensitive. Credit bond yields declined, and credit spreads fluctuated within a narrow range. Although trade frictions escalated again in September 2018, the bond market reacted calmly. Low - grade industrial bond credit spreads widened, and the impact of domestic policies on the bond market gradually exceeded external shocks [55]. - **Relative Advantage of Non - standard Bonds of Urban Investment Entities after Trade Friction Upgrade**: Credit bond defaults increased, mainly among private enterprises. Non - standard bonds of non - urban investment entities had a significant increase in default cases, while those of urban investment entities were relatively stable, reflecting the positive role of local policy coordination [61][62]. Third Stage: Wide - Credit Verification Period (December 2018 - April 2019) - **"Time Difference" Game between Liquidity Drive and Credit Repair**: The bond market was driven by both the easing of trade frictions and domestic policy loosening. Although the G20 Summit in December 2018 and the central bank's full - scale RRR cut in January 2019 boosted market sentiment, private enterprise credit spreads remained high. The bond market turned bearish in April 2019 as economic fundamentals improved [69]. - **Differentiated Financing between State - owned and Private Enterprises under Tariff Easing and Policy Loosening**: State - owned enterprises benefited from policy loosening and had an increase in net financing, while private enterprises were still affected by the lagged impact of previous tariffs. Their net financing showed a fluctuating trend [72]. - **Credit Bond Yields Oscillated and Industrial Bond Spreads of Different Industries Differentiated**: As trade frictions eased, credit bond yields oscillated, and credit spreads differentiated. The market logic shifted to fundamental verification. Industries such as electrical equipment and chemical industry, which were affected by tariffs, had a slower credit spread repair than the overall market [74][78]. - **Credit Bond Default Situation Remained Flat Year - on - Year with Insufficient Improvement for Private Enterprises**: During the negotiation easing period, the number of credit bond extensions and defaults remained basically the same as the previous stage. Financial institutions preferred high - credit entities, and private enterprises still faced challenges in financing [81]. Fourth Stage: Resonance Period of Liquidity Stratification and Cross - border Capital Pricing (May 2019 - January 2020) - **Dual Pricing Logic of Credit Risk Events and Foreign Capital Safe - haven**: The takeover of Baoshang Bank in May 2019 led to concerns about liquidity stratification. Foreign capital increased its allocation of interest - rate bonds, and the bond market showed a pattern of safe - haven interest - rate bonds and differentiated credit bonds. The bond market was driven by both "safe - haven sentiment" and "foreign capital allocation" [85]. - **Increased Financing of Urban Investment Bonds with Swinging Trade Friction Expectations**: During the liquidity stratification stage, urban investment bond net financing continued to grow. Regulatory policies relaxed the "borrowing new to repay old" restrictions, and the central bank's policies provided a low - cost replacement space for urban investment platforms [88]. - **Overall Decline in Credit Bond Yields with Intensified Structural Differentiation**: Credit bond yields declined overall, but the market showed intensified structural differentiation. Yields of some industries such as electronics and automobiles increased, while those of infrastructure - related industries remained stable. High - grade state - owned enterprise industrial bond credit spreads narrowed, while those of AA + private enterprise industrial bonds widened [90][93]. - **Credit Bond Defaults under the Prolonged Trade Friction**: Under the continuous impact of trade frictions, credit bond defaults increased, mainly due to factors such as the slowdown of the macro - economic environment, the adjustment of corporate profit growth, and the impact on export - oriented enterprises. Non - standard bonds of urban investment platforms had relatively stable repayment performance [96]. Outlook on Credit Bond Trends in the Current Trade Friction - After the implementation of the 54% tariff policy on April 2, 2025, the credit bond market's core logic shifted. Interest - rate bonds reacted first, and the steep downward movement of the interest - rate curve opened up the valuation space for credit bonds. High - grade varieties are favored, and in the short - term, safe - haven sentiment will dominate. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to economic data and the possible impact of the valuation repair of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of "moderately extending duration" + "moderately lowering credit quality" [100][105].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant reduction of China's crude oil imports from the U.S. by 90% due to escalating trade tensions, leading to an unprecedented increase in imports from Canada [1][5] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) has facilitated the flow of Alberta's oil sands crude to China, with imports reaching a record 7.3 million barrels in March, expected to rise further in April [1] - The trade war has prompted China to diversify its oil import sources, with a notable shift towards Middle Eastern and other alternative crude oils, as the economic viability of U.S. crude has diminished due to tariffs [3][5] Group 2 - China's crude oil import volume is projected to decline by 1.9% in 2024, with a diversified import structure increasingly focusing on the Middle East and Europe, while reducing reliance on North America [5] - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. has significantly increased the cost of American crude oil, weakening its competitiveness in the Chinese market [5] - The long-term impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to negatively affect global economic conditions and crude oil demand, potentially leading to a decrease in international oil prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]