Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the A-share market has likely reached a significant bottom, with structural opportunities emerging in growth, consumption, cyclical sectors, and dividends. The market is expected to experience high-frequency fluctuations within a narrow range, with a potential upward trend in the second half of the year, contingent on macroeconomic policies and external uncertainties [2][3][4]. Economic Recovery and Internal Dynamics - The internal momentum of China's economy is gradually recovering, supported by a package of stable growth policies. However, challenges remain, particularly in the real estate sector and weak consumer demand. The manufacturing sector's resilience is crucial for economic growth, but uncertainties regarding tariffs may dampen future export performance [3][6][7]. - The real estate market's stabilization is critical for macroeconomic health, with recent data indicating a narrowing decline in sales area but a widening decline in sales value. The sector's recovery will depend on effective policy responses [7][8]. Valuation Perspectives and Investor Dynamics - Despite a projected 3% decline in A-share earnings for 2024, dividend payouts are expected to increase by 5%, driven by improved free cash flow. The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is approximately 3.5%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, indicating a favorable valuation environment [4][5]. - The structure of investors in the A-share market is shifting, with individual investors gradually increasing their market presence, influencing market dynamics and styles [4]. Investment Strategy and Sector Focus - In an uncertain environment, the investment strategy should focus on certainty, prioritizing stable sectors before shifting to growth opportunities. Key investment themes include: 1. Opportunities in sectors that can clear supply and expand capacity, such as industrial metals and lithium batteries [5][23]. 2. High-growth opportunities less correlated with economic cycles, particularly in the AI industry and defense sectors [5][24]. 3. Dividend-paying sectors with strong cash flow and low volatility, including consumer staples and utilities [5][25]. Capital Market and Policy Environment - The capital market is undergoing steady institutional improvements, with new regulations supporting market stability and growth. The focus is on enhancing the development of technology-driven enterprises and promoting mergers and acquisitions [10][11]. - Fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in supporting economic recovery, with a projected increase in the deficit rate and government bond issuance for 2025, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate growth [9][10]. Profitability and Earnings Outlook - A-share profitability is anticipated to stabilize and improve, with projected earnings growth of approximately 3.5% for 2025. The non-financial sector is expected to see a more significant recovery, with earnings growth around 8.3% [21][22]. - The structural optimization of A-share earnings is evident, with a declining share of profits from real estate and construction, while the technology sector's contribution is increasing, highlighting a shift towards more sustainable growth drivers [25].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a strong recovery after a low opening on June 3, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI A500 Index turning positive. Key sectors that performed well included online gaming, brain-computer interfaces, gold and jewelry, and rare earths [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) recorded a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products. Notable stocks within this ETF included Zhangqu Technology, which rose over 13%, and Giant Network, Huahai Pharmaceutical, and Aerospace Rainbow, which all increased by over 8% [1] - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index and employs a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all sub-industries. It emphasizes both value and growth attributes, with a higher allocation in sectors like pharmaceuticals, electronics, and power equipment compared to the CSI 300 Index, representing core assets in the current A-share market [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities released a mid-term outlook for 2025, predicting that ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2025 due to improvements in net profit margins, stabilization of turnover rates, and an increase in equity multipliers, marking the end of the downward cycle for A-share ROE [1] - The broad valuation recovery of Chinese assets is still in progress, driven by three main variables: technological innovation, the end of the rapid decline in the real estate sector, and improvements in policy cycles. The trend is expected to remain unchanged in the second half of the year, with "de-dollarization" providing upward pressure on the renminbi, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese asset allocation [1] - Core assets represented by A50, consumption, and finance have shown remarkable fundamental resilience over the past three years and are expected to play a leading role in the upcoming ROE recovery cycle. Additionally, five investment themes are highlighted: renminbi appreciation, technology cycles, capacity cycles, inventory cycles, and capital market reforms [1]

Strategy - Current sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has recovered to last October's high, but lacks catalysts from sentiment, interest rates, and fundamentals in the short term [3] - Although tariff negotiations have progressed better than expected, the urgency for policy intervention has decreased, leading to insufficient internal economic momentum and persistent external uncertainties [3] - Southbound capital inflows have slowed, and active foreign capital continues to flow out, despite the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injecting nearly 130 billion HKD into liquidity [3] - The increase in placements and IPOs may dilute liquidity, suggesting that the market may experience fluctuations or pullbacks before more catalysts emerge [3] - The strategy of "actively intervening during low periods and taking profits during exuberance" remains appropriate, with opportunities to enter at lower costs after adjustments in existing holdings [3] Economic Data - April economic data shows a slowdown in year-on-year growth, with industrial value-added and service production indices at 6.1% and 6.0% respectively [12] - Export growth has slowed due to tariff impacts, with the value of exports from large industrial enterprises increasing by only 0.9% year-on-year [12] - Retail sales in April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by policies like the "old-for-new" program, although some categories like furniture and automobiles saw declines [12] - Fixed asset investment for January to April accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with equipment investment showing a significant increase of 18.2% [12] Industry Capacity Cycle - The importance of capacity cycles in industry allocation has increased, with a strong correlation between industry performance and capacity cycles over the past three years [15] - A decline in capital expenditure among non-financial enterprises by 4.9% year-on-year indicates a shift towards negative growth in capital spending, impacting capacity construction and expansion [15] - Some industries are beginning to see improvements in fundamentals, with new demand catalyzing a resumption of capital expenditure growth, presenting potential investment opportunities [15]

华泰证券研报表示，大势上，结合信用周期指引与财报线索，A股仍处于库存周期弱企稳，产能周期继 续出清的阶段，向上弹性待改善。同时，政策抓落实、稳预期，支撑风险偏好，市场或处于"上有顶、 下有底"的状态。风格上，中期维持红利+内需+科技的哑铃型配置，做多波动率。红利内部，国有行、 水电等运营性资产仍是底仓。科技和内需强调左侧思维，科技内部，AI和军工电子若调整仍可中期布 局。内需内部，三个筛选条件：1)供给收缩有约束；2)政府支出受益；3)人民币升值受益，建议超配航 空、饮料乳品等。 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current stage represents the "beginning of the end" of the Sino-US game, with a "temporary easing of external pressure" as the macro - background, preparing for the 2.0 game in the future [3]. - The May 12th joint statement signals that the Sino - US trade game since 2018 has ended, and a new stage of competition and cooperation will begin. Market uncertainty pricing will shift from the trade field to other economic and financial fields [5]. - In an optimistic scenario, the end of the current inventory cycle decline may be seen in 2025. Attention should be paid to the real risks to the capital market due to the accelerated bottom - hitting of the cycle and the switch of macro - assets within the year, such as the peak of gold and the steepening of the yield curve [5]. - Regarding strategies, as the economic cycle shifts from the inventory cycle decline to the capacity cycle rise, attention should be paid to the annual inflection point of gold. For Chinese bonds, with the phased improvement of risk assets, attention should be paid to the space for RMB asset allocation provided by the accelerated decline of the inventory cycle, and the yield curve will switch to steep, maintaining a strategic steepening position (+2s10s) [6]. Summary by Directory Why is it now - The macro - background of China's package of financial policies on May 7th is the "temporary easing of external pressure", reaching a window for "easing" to prepare for the future 2.0 game [11]. Review 4 - month pressure events - In April, the global economy released a pessimistic outlook. The US announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2nd, deteriorating the global trade environment. Direct exports to the US in April began to decline, and spot freight rates also continued to fall [12]. - The US financial market faced pressure in April. With the impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs" and China's "reciprocal counter - measures", the instability of the US financial market increased, and the US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar showed short - term downward pressure. Asian currencies appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday due to the hedging of currency mismatch pressure by a Taiwanese insurance company [12]. - Under the influence of uncertainty, monetary policies gradually turned loose. The ECB cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points on April 17th, and the Bank of Japan postponed the interest rate hike for the second time on May 1st and lowered GDP and inflation forecasts [12]. Performance 1: Market pressure - Gold prices reflect the "damage" to the US dollar credit. Since the US launched "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar, bonds, and stocks have fluctuated significantly, increasing market concerns about the US dollar credit. Although US stocks rebounded at the end of April, the loosening of financial conditions driven by the rising volatility of US stocks is significantly converging, and attention should be paid to the evolution of internal contradictions in the US [17]. - The Fed's balance - sheet policy needs to cooperate. The large refinancing scale of US bonds in the middle of this year has shocked the market. The current benchmark interest rate of 4.50 - 4.75% still poses pressure on fiscal refinancing. Before the final implementation of policy games, US stocks still face the risk of a second adjustment [18]. Performance 2: Economic pressure - The global economy will face downward pressure due to the trade war. In April, the global manufacturing prosperity declined significantly, with the global manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8, China's to 49.0, and the US's to 48.7. Structurally, it shows a decline in Chinese demand and a rise in US prices [21]. What are the incremental information - On May 12th, the Sino - US joint statement was released. In terms of the background, it was a "talk" rather than a "negotiation". In the tariff aspect, the current tariff policy will be adjusted to "one cancellation, one suspension, and one retention" before May 14th, canceling tariffs imposed after April 8th, suspending 24% tariffs for 90 days, and retaining 10% tariffs. The statement did not mention "fentanyl tariffs". In the non - tariff aspect, a mechanism will be established to negotiate economic and trade relations [25][26]. About tariffs - The 90 - day tariff suspension provides a time window for Sino - US negotiations, boosting market risk appetite. The US still needs to impose about 49% tariffs on China, and China's corresponding counter - measures still need to implement about 40% tariffs, which will cause inflationary pressure on US enterprises and consumers [31][34]. About non - tariffs - The Sino - US joint statement mentioned establishing a mechanism to continue negotiating economic and trade relations. The establishment of the communication mechanism may provide space for Trump's domestic policies before the mid - term elections. In different fields, such as trade, geopolitics, regulation, and tax cuts, corresponding developments are expected [35][37]. How to view the macro - market - The May 12th joint statement signals that the Sino - US trade game since 2018 has ended, and a new stage of competition and cooperation will begin. Market uncertainty pricing will shift from the trade field to other economic and financial fields [39]. Risks in the current downward stage - The cycle is in a downward phase in 2025. The Trump tariff war and the May 12th joint statement will accelerate the cycle to "bottom out", and attention should be paid to the real risks to the capital market [40]. Outlook for the future upward stage - The "beginning of the end" of the Sino - US game is expected to accelerate the global cycle's shift from the current downward stage (global central bank interest rate cuts) to the upward stage (global fiscal expansion). Optimistically, the "low point" of this cycle will be reached within the year, and attention should be paid to the switch of macro - assets [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the polysilicon market is weak, with expectations for a continued decline in prices and demand due to inventory pressures and reduced downstream procurement [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 7, polysilicon futures experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of 35,655.0 yuan, with a current price of 35,700.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.65% [1]. - The current inventory of polysilicon is around 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory estimated at nearly 500,000 tons, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market is in a capacity reduction cycle, with production cuts across various segments, leading to a slight recovery in March production to 96,000 tons, but overall price support remains weak [1]. - Downstream silicon wafer production shows signs of stabilization, but the focus remains on depleting polysilicon inventory, with new orders being limited [1]. - The demand side is negatively impacted by the end of the photovoltaic rush, with expected declines in silicon wafer production in May and June [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The N-type silicon material price has dropped nearly 4%, and the overall market is expected to see further price declines due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2]. - The average cash cost for mainstream silicon material manufacturers is around 35,000-36,000 yuan per ton, which may provide some support for prices in the near term [2]. - The market is anticipated to remain in a weak state, with potential short-term rebounds as the market approaches delivery pricing in mid to late May [2].

投资逻辑 25Q1 有色金属板块涨幅 11.96%，涨幅超过沪深 300 指数;受美国关税影响，避险需求提升及抢出口，工业金属贵金属 价格上涨，带动板块内企业业绩增长及板块表现领先。 铜：铜供应紧缺叠加美国抢库存，Q1 铜价上行。铜矿及冶炼企业 25Q1 营收 3550.42 亿元，环比-7.81%；归母净利润 194.36 亿元，环比+22.34%；铜加工板块 25Q1 营收 712.83 亿元，环比-6.91%；归母净利润 11.08 亿元，环比+85.03%。 美国关税所带来的抢出口需求及海外矿企下调产量指引，推动商品价格提升。 铝：氧化铝价格下行，吨铝盈利显著提升。25Q1 电解铝板块营收 1069.79 亿元，环比-8.32%亿元；归母净利润 86.18 亿元，环比+14.18%；25Q1 铝加工板块营收 504.25 亿元，环比-9.83%；归母净利润 17.66 亿元，环比+42.69%。氧化 铝价格下行叠加美国关税预期带来的抢出口需求，吨铝利润快速释放，标的云铝股份、神火股份、南山铝业、中国铝 业等。 贵金属：金价上涨推动业绩提升。25Q1 贵金属板块营收 1011.43 亿元，环比+19.0 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，A股非金融ROE环比基本持平，结合一季度盈利增长明显反弹和 上述积极变化，预计本轮盈利下行周期的增速低点已过，但二季度以后需要重视关税政策对企业基本面 的影响。中金判断，关税对上市公司销售的冲击程度好于实体经济，但需要关注降价和供需失衡导致的 利润率下降。配置上，建议从景气回升和关税低影响两个维度寻找机会。 中金主要观点如下： 盈利增长方面，2024年全A/金融/非金融归母净利润同比分别为-3.0%/+9.0%/-14.2%，四季度大量减值损 失导致非金融盈利加速探底，全年房地产和光伏行业是主要拖累项；1Q25全A/金融/非金融归母净利润 同比为+3.5%/+2.9%+4.2%，下游行业改善明显。行业层面，有色金属、部分出口链以及TMT板块亮点 突出，高景气行业稀缺的格局发生积极变化。 盈利能力来看，A股非金融ROE环比基本持平，从2021年2季度以来，本轮ROE下行周期已持续15个季 度，拆分来看，净利润率边际企稳反弹，但资产周转率仍明显下行拖累。结构上，上游行业ROE仍在快 速下滑，下游行业若剔除地产后处于改善趋势中。其中ROE连续两个季度改善的行业包括电子、家电、 非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall A-share market is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 3.0% for the entire market, 9.0% for the financial sector, and 14.2% for the non-financial sector, primarily due to significant impairment losses in the fourth quarter of 2024, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [1][2][3] Profit Growth - In 2024, the A-share market's net profit is forecasted to decline by 3.0%, with the financial sector showing a growth of 9.0% and the non-financial sector declining by 14.2%. The non-financial sector's revenue is expected to decrease slightly by 1%, with a significant drop in profit margins compared to 2023 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a rebound in net profit for the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% for the entire market, 2.9% for the financial sector, and 4.2% for the non-financial sector, indicating a recovery in downstream industries [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares has remained stable, marking 15 consecutive quarters of decline since Q2 2021. The marginal improvement in net profit margins is offset by a significant decline in asset turnover rates [1][15] - Industries such as electronics, home appliances, non-bank financials, and agriculture have shown consecutive improvements in ROE over the past two quarters [15][23] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Non-financial capital expenditure has been in negative growth for four consecutive quarters, but new economy sectors are seeing a rebound in capital expenditure growth. The total assets of non-financial enterprises have stabilized, with a notable increase in prepayments [2][16] - The free cash flow to equity ratio for non-financial companies has reached a historical high, supporting an increase in dividend payout ratios to 45% in 2024, with the dividend yield for the CSI 300 rising to 3.2% [2][18] Industry Performance - The first quarter of 2025 has highlighted strong performance in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, certain export chains, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with significant year-on-year profit growth in these areas [3][4] - The agricultural sector has shown remarkable recovery, with a profit growth of 2541.6% due to low base effects, while non-bank financials have benefited from improved capital market conditions, achieving a profit growth of 48.7% [2][4] Market Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that the low point of the profit downturn cycle has been surpassed, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariff policies on corporate fundamentals in the second quarter of 2025 [2][38] - The market is advised to seek opportunities in sectors with recovering demand and low tariff impacts, particularly in AI-related industries and companies with strong cash flows that are less exposed to external demand [39][40]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on key sectors such as **real estate**, **consumption**, and **foreign trade**. Key Points and Arguments Economic Performance - The overall economic fundamentals in China have not significantly changed compared to last year, with manufacturing PMI showing a recovery trend since Q4 of the previous year, but not exceeding last year's levels [1][2] - Real estate performance has shown resilience, particularly in the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities, with transaction growth noted in 15 cities [1][2] - The number of listings in the real estate market has rebounded significantly, although second to fifth-tier cities have shown a temporary rebound followed by a decline [2] Consumption Trends - Consumption during the Spring Festival has highlighted structural strengths, particularly in tourism and entertainment, with notable increases in travel revenue and box office sales [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant driver of consumption since its implementation in September last year, leading to a notable increase in sales for related products [4][5] - The overall consumption growth is expected to contribute positively to the economy, with projections indicating a potential increase in retail sales growth by 1.3% to 2.7% this year [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales area since June last year, and a corresponding reduction in price declines observed since November [7][8] - The performance of second-hand homes is outpacing new homes, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8] - The financial health of real estate companies remains a concern, with many showing a contraction in cash flow and overall financial stability [9][10] Foreign Trade and External Factors - The impact of foreign trade has been more optimistic than previously anticipated, with expectations of extended "export rush" effects due to tariff policies [11][12] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on GDP is relatively minor, with estimates suggesting only a 0.16% impact from the latest tariff increases [12][14] - The depreciation of the RMB may serve as a buffer against tariff impacts, with a controlled depreciation expected to mitigate some of the adverse effects [14][15] Price Trends and Inflation - Price levels are expected to remain low, with potential for recovery in service prices, particularly in tourism and household services [17][19] - The current capacity utilization rates are low, which historically correlates with negative PPI growth, indicating a need for policy intervention to stimulate production [18][19] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy framework is characterized by a clear focus on high-quality development, with proactive measures anticipated to support consumption and address capacity issues [20][21] - Fiscal policy is expected to see an increase in deficit rates and spending, with projections indicating a rise in the deficit to between 5.6 trillion to 6.4 trillion yuan [23][24] - The government is likely to enhance transfer payments to local governments to alleviate fiscal pressures and support basic public services [27] Conclusion - The overall outlook for the Chinese economy remains cautious but with some optimistic indicators, particularly in consumption and real estate stabilization. The effectiveness of policy measures in addressing structural issues will be critical for sustained economic growth [20][21][39]