面对隐藏在《大漂亮法案》中的第899条税收条款，大摩警告华尔街面临史上最大"资本税"冲击。 华尔街见闻此前提及，在美国众议院此前通过的《大漂亮法案》税收与支出议案中，一条标题为"针对 不公平外国税收的执法补救措施"的条款提出，对于被美国认定存在"歧视性"税收政策的国家，将大幅 提高该国企业和个人在美投资的税率。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利分析师Michael Zezas领衔的团队在最新研报中表示，尽管899条款的立 法初衷似乎并非针对固定收益资产，但其模糊措辞已引发投资者对持有美国国债、企业债及证券化产品 额外成本的担忧。 如果参议院未能澄清适用范围，市场可能面临美债收益率曲线陡化、美元走弱及信用利差扩大的多重冲 击。 万亿美元级别的税收"核弹"即将引爆 报告指出，899条款的杀伤力在于其"递增式惩罚税"设计：对被认定存在"歧视性"税收政策国家的投资 者，首先提高5个百分点税率，然后每年再增加5个百分点，最高可达20个百分点的额外税负。 并且，该条款涵盖的目标极其广泛，包括美国被动收入、房地产投资、商业利润，甚至可能波及外国央 行和主权财富基金——这些此前享受免税待遇的"特权阶层"。 尽管目前文本暗示固定收 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Interest rate adjustments have led to a divergence in the performance of credit bonds, with the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds widening, while long - term credit bonds have shown strong performance. The spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with weaker platforms performing well. Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. The excess spreads of 3 - year industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds have compressed, while the spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds have rebounded [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Adjustments Lead to Divergence in Credit Bond Performance, with Widening Spreads of Medium - and Short - Term High - Grade Bonds This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds have slightly rebounded. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 2BP, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds have increased by 1BP. The yields of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds have adjusted, while most other varieties have continued to decline. Credit spreads have mostly declined, with the largest decline in 7Y varieties, and the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade bonds have widened. Rating spreads and term spreads have mostly declined [3][6]. 3.2 Narrow Fluctuations in Urban Investment Bond Spreads, with Good Performance of Weaker Platforms This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with some differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of externally rated AAA - level platforms have increased by 1BP, those of AA + - level platforms have remained basically flat, and those of AA - level platforms have decreased by 1BP. When classified by administrative level, the spreads of provincial - level platforms have increased by 1BP, while those of municipal and district - level platforms have remained basically flat [3][10][17]. 3.3 Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decline, while Coal Bonds and Private Real Estate Bonds See an Increase in Spreads Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. This week, the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate bonds have increased by 0 - 1BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have decreased by 2BP, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 40BP. The spreads of AAA - level coal bonds have increased by 9BP, those of AA + - level bonds have remained flat, and those of AA - level coal bonds have increased by 1BP. The spreads of steel and chemical bonds at all levels have declined by 0 - 3BP [3][15]. 3.4 Yields of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds Mostly Rise, with Compressed Spreads of 5 - Year Medium - and Low - Grade Varieties This week, the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. Specifically, the yields of 1Y AAA - and AA + commercial bank Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 4BP, and the yields of AA - level bonds have increased by 2BP, with spreads increasing by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y Tier 2 capital bonds at all levels have increased by 4 - 6BP, and the spreads have increased by 2 - 4BP. The yields of 5Y AAA - and AA + Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads have decreased by 0 - 1BP, while the yields of AA - level bonds have decreased by 1BP, and the spreads have compressed by 3BP [27][28]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of 3 - Year Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Compress, while the Spreads of 5 - Year Urban Investment Bonds Rebound This week, the excess spreads of 3 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 2.18BP to 9.53BP, at the 11.52% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 5 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have remained flat at 9.22BP, at the 10.27% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 3 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 1.12BP to 4.31BP, at the 0.37% percentile. The excess spreads of 5 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have increased by 1.37BP to 10.30BP, at the 9.54% percentile [31]. 3.6 Explanation of the Credit Spread Database Compilation The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical percentiles are calculated since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical percentiles also calculated since the beginning of 2015. Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are also provided [38].

新华财经北京5月28日电（王菁）债市周三（5月28日）延续偏弱，国债期货主力多数收跌，银行间现券 收益率小幅走高0.5BP左右；公开市场单日净投放585亿元，短端资金利率走势仍有所分化。 【一级市场】 机构认为，当下市场风险偏好回升，对经济修复的预期有所改善，潜在的交易点或在于未来三个月中基 本面数据的预期差。也有机构提示，随着银行负债管理难度加大，债基配置比例受限，可能引发同业存 单利率在季末等时点冲高。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.04%报119.400，10年期主力合约持平于108.730，5年期主 力合约跌0.01%报106.020，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.400。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数延续上行，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.45BP至1.715%，10年期 国债"25附息国债04"收益率上行0.75BP至1.705%，30年期国债"23附息国债23"收益率上行0.65BP至 1.924%，2年期国债"25附息国债06"收益率上行0.25BP至1.47%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.07%，报426.58点，成交金额509.21亿元。水羊转债 ...

摘要 4月，信用债收益率整体下行，短久期利差全线收窄，中长久期收益率下行幅度不及同期限国开债，信用利差多数走阔。当月各品种信用债等 级利差涨跌互现，当月期限利差整体走阔。 | | 1年 3 सेंट રે સ્દ | | --- | --- | | ４月末利差 (bp) | | | | AAA AA+ AA AA- AAA AA+ AA AA- AAA AA+ AA AA- | 产业债：4月，各行业AAA级产业债信用利差多数走阔。公募债中，金融控股行业利差走阔幅度最大，纺织服饰行业利差收窄幅度最大。私募 债中，基础化工、商贸零售行业利差收窄，其余行业利差走阔。 城投债：4月，主要评级、期限城投债信用利差波动上行。分区域看，4月各省份、各主体级别城投债信用利差走势分化，贵州、青海等利差相 对偏高的区域利差多数收窄，北京、上海等利差相对较低的地区利差多数走阔。分等级看，低等级城投债信用利差多数收窄，高等级城投债信 用利差多数走阔。 金融债：4月，银行二永债信用利差多数收窄，品种利差涨跌互现，等级利差多数收窄，期限利差全面走阔。当月证券公司次级债和保险公司 资本补充债信用利差全面走阔。 本文目录 报告正文如下 一 ...

存款利率下调信用债表现强势 中长端信用利差显著压缩 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | ] | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 邮 | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3存款利率下调信用债表现强势 中长端信用利差显著压 ...

施罗德投资固定收益投资总监吴美燕称，近期美债利率剧烈波动，引起投资者担忧。但她表示，对长期 投资者而言，短期市场的剧烈抛售行为，往往蕴藏布局机会。观察过去一年的债市表现，信用利差处于 相对低点，价值空间受限。近期随市场情势变化，信用利差扩大，债市即展现出吸引力，适合中长期布 局。 施罗德投资强调，过去一段时间，美国股债市场皆表现良好。然而，现阶段反而要积极通过地区及债券 品种的分散，才可有效降低投组波动，并且掌握长线债券投资机会。 施罗德指，在分散策略方面，暂时不便过分着墨于新兴市场，因其波动性较高，容易造成额外不安；相 反，欧洲与英国等成熟市场因其能够提供较为稳定的债券投资机会，也有降息带来债券价格上扬的可能 性，或可成为首选。 值得注意的是，当前有些投资者期望以现金或者黄金作为避险的选择。施罗德表示，市场的恐慌情绪固 然会让现金以及黄金具备短线吸引力，但这两项资产并不具备息收能力，黄金也存在价格波动风险。对 长期投资者来说，债券具有价格以及收息优势，才是真正具备核心资产配置特性的品种。整体而言，当 前虽然市场风险尚未完全消除，但在价格修正与价值显现的交会点上，既是危机也是转机，同时也是债 市中长期投资进场 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-05-21 4月用电增长，关注设备制造业产能 中观事件总览 生产行业：4月全社会用电稳步增长。1）国家能源局数据显示：4月份，全社会用电量7721亿千瓦时，同比增长4.7%。 从分产业用电看，第一产业用电量110亿千瓦时，同比增长13.8%；第二产业用电量5285亿千瓦时，同比增长3.0%； 第三产业用电量1390亿千瓦时，同比增长9.0%；城乡居民生活用电量936亿千瓦时，同比增长7.0%。1～4月，全社 会用电量累计31566亿千瓦时，同比增长3.1%，其中规模以上工业发电量为29840亿千瓦时。 服务行业：5月LPR下调10个基点。 1）中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年5月20日，贷款市 场报价利率（LPR）为，1年期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%，均较前期下调10个基点。以上LPR在下一次 发布LPR之前有效。 数据来源：央视，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）农业：鸡蛋价格同比回落。2）黑色：玻璃价格短期回落。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落。2）基建：沥青开工率近期持续回升。 下游：1）地产：一、二 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 含权债基>短债基金>高等级同业存单指基金 | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金 | | 收益回顾 | >中长期债基> 现金管理 | >现金管理>中长期债基 | | | 近一个月资金面进一步转松,中美关税大幅 | 1月偏强震荡，2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | 债市回顾 | 缓和、提升市场风险偏好,长债利率有所回 | 调，4月初债市快速走强后转为偏强震荡，5 | | | 升,短端利率相对稳定。 | 月中旬以来转为偏弱震荡。 | | 行业事件 | 1、中国证监会近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 | | | 跟踪 | | | | 展空 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | -同业存单:预计利率偏强震荡。 | | | | 明显,私人部门融资需求偏弱;宏观政策兼 | 近期经济金融数据显示国内低通胀特征依然 | | | 顾积极有为和定力,"超预期"政策出台必 | | | 债市展望 | - ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 信用利差压缩行情启动 [Table_Title2] 信用周观察系列 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12-16 日，中美关税谈判取得超预期进展，4 月出口数据超预期走 强，但 PPI 同比与新增信贷则显著偏弱，空头力量占据上风，市场选 择阶段性防御，利率债收益率上行。在利率债震荡偏弱行情中，中短 端信用债凭借利差优势受到青睐，城投债 1-2 年收益率下行 3-6bp，利 差收窄 6-9bp。 从二级成交来看，信用债买盘热度小幅降温，城投债和产业债日均成 交笔数均减少，TKN 占比和低估值占比也有所下降。分评级看，城投 债变化不大，产业债成交向高等级集中，AAA-及以上成交占比由 51% 升至 55%。分期限结构看，城投债和产业债均拉久期。一级市场发行 情绪继续回升，城投债发行倍数 3 倍以上占比环比前周上升 6 个百分 点至 63%，产业债全场倍数 3 倍以上占比由 31%升至 38%。 往后看，长期债牛的观点不变，但是短期仍处在等待基本面变化的阶 段，债市或进入震荡期。而在震荡期内，波 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]