Group 1 - The credit bond market continues to show a recovery trend, with short to medium-term bonds outperforming long-term bonds, as evidenced by a narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in 1-year and 3-year AA-rated bonds [1][4] - The overall credit spread for 1-year bonds narrowed by approximately 3-4 basis points, while 5-year and longer bonds saw a reduction of 1-2 basis points [1][9] - Specific sectors such as urban investment bonds and financial bonds experienced significant spread compression, with 1-year AA-rated urban investment bonds showing a notable decrease of 4 basis points [1][9] Group 2 - The overall turnover rate in the credit bond market decreased from 2.34% to 1.99%, indicating a decline in market trading activity [2] - The weighted average transaction duration for all credit bonds fell from 3.4 years to 3.1 years, with urban investment bonds maintaining an average duration of around 3.0 years [2][10] - The proportion of TKN (traded notional) in various credit bond categories generally increased, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [2][10] Group 3 - Investment funds were the primary contributors to the increased allocation in credit bonds, particularly focusing on bonds with maturities of 3 years or less [3] - Insurance funds shifted from net buying to net selling in ultra-long-term secondary capital bonds, indicating a change in investment strategy [3] - The net buying scale of credit bonds by wealth management products decreased, despite a sustained increase in allocation over the past three weeks [3] Group 4 - There is a potential for further spread compression in long-term credit bonds, suggesting that investors should consider opportunities in 3-5 year non-financial credit bonds [4] - The cancellation of the value-added tax exemption on interest income from government and financial bonds has improved the relative attractiveness of non-financial credit bonds [4] - Trading accounts are advised to focus on liquid short to medium-term urban investment bonds or major bank perpetual bonds for better trading opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The credit market has shown a general increase, with the yield curve steepening for perpetual bonds, as credit spreads have narrowed significantly due to a recovery in credit sentiment and favorable tax policies [1][2][4] - The yield on 3-year perpetual bonds has decreased by 3-4 basis points, while the long-end yields have seen limited increases, indicating a flattening of the curve [1][4] - Short-term bonds have outperformed long-term bonds, and lower-rated bonds have performed better than higher-rated ones during this period [1][2] Group 2 - The reintroduction of VAT on newly issued government and local bonds has provided a relative pricing advantage for credit bonds, leading to a noticeable increase in buying activity from public funds [2][14] - Despite a decrease in the scale of wealth management products, there has been a temporary increase in credit holdings due to the attractive pricing of credit bonds [2][25] Group 3 - Since July, there has been a slight increase in the supply of urban investment bonds, alongside stable issuance from state-owned and private enterprises, particularly in the technology sector [3][33] - As of August 10, 2025, the cumulative net financing for credit bonds has reached 1.556 trillion yuan, slightly above the level seen in the same period last year [3][34] Group 4 - Credit spreads have compressed significantly since the beginning of 2025, with short-term spreads compressing more than long-term ones, indicating a structural shift in the credit market [4][47] - The current yield levels for most credit varieties are below those at the beginning of the year, with the exception of some high-grade perpetual bonds [4][51] - Non-financial credit bonds are expected to benefit from a tax advantage of 3-15 basis points, with spreads for mid-to-high-grade 3-5 year credit varieties approaching last year's low points [4][53]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The ultra - long - term credit bond market has strong supply and demand in the primary market, and the issuance scale in 2025 may exceed 1 trillion yuan. The secondary market trading volume has increased significantly, but the buying sentiment has room for repair. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds [2][8][48] - According to the credit spread percentile, the compression degree of the ultra - long - term credit bond spread is not as low as last year. The low - valuation transaction volume and TKN volume in the secondary market have rebounded, but the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that the buying sentiment has room for repair. The "asset shortage" may drive the market to long - duration assets [2][48] - The allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds is ranked as 15Y>20Y>10Y>30Y. Some issuers of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank secondary capital bonds are recommended for investors' reference [3][50][56] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Increment and Stock of Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds 1.1 Increment: Strong Supply and Demand in Primary New Issuance - Supply side: Since early 2023, the issuance interest rate of credit bonds has been in a downward channel, and the issuance cost has decreased, which has attracted more issuers. The issuance scale in 2024 was 1.21 trillion yuan, and the issuance in the second half of the year is usually faster. The issuance scale in 2025 may exceed 1 trillion yuan [7][8] - Demand side: Since early 2021, the primary subscription multiple of ultra - long - term credit bonds has shown an overall upward trend. From late 2023 to July 2024, the subscription multiple increased steeply; from August 2024 to Q1 2025, it decreased rapidly; since April 2025, it has rebounded [10][12][13] 1.2 Stock: Analysis from Different Perspectives - By original issuance term: 10Y and 15Y are the mainstream issuance terms. The balance of bonds with a term of ≥20Y accounts for less than 10% of the total [15] - By implied rating: High - rated bonds account for a high proportion, with AAA -, AAA, and AAA+ bonds accounting for 81% of the total [16] - By bond type: Medium - term notes, bank capital bonds, and corporate bonds have the highest stock balances, accounting for 96% of the total [18] - By industry distribution: The stock scale of industrial bonds>bank secondary capital bonds>urban investment bonds. The weighted average exercise valuations of urban investment, comprehensive, and non - bank finance industries are relatively high [21] 2. Fluctuations in Secondary Trading of Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds 2.1 Significant Increase in Secondary Trading Volume This Year - Since early 2024, the primary market of ultra - long - term credit bonds has expanded significantly, and the secondary market activity has increased. In mid - June 2025, the weekly trading volume reached a peak [24] 2.2 Changes in Buying Sentiment - Since February 2025, the buying sentiment of ultra - long - term credit bonds has been continuously boosted, and the monthly TKN ratio of industrial bonds, bank secondary capital bonds, and urban investment bonds has remained above 62% [25] - Since February 2025, the proportion of low - valuation transactions has rebounded but has not reached the high point of last July. In the first half of 2025, the low - valuation transaction deviation of ultra - long - term industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank perpetual bonds has narrowed compared with the same period last year [30][31] 3. Who Buys Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds? - Banks have been net sellers of ultra - long - term credit bonds since 2025, mainly due to underwriting and regulatory restrictions [37] - Insurance companies, wealth management subsidiaries, and wealth management products are the main allocation funds for ultra - long - term credit bonds this year. Insurance companies show a "buy low, sell high" strategy, and wealth management products have strong allocation attributes [37][39] - Fund companies and products have stronger trading attributes. They were net sellers during the bond market adjustment in Q1 2025 and have significantly increased their allocation since March [39] 4. Investment Recommendations - Based on the credit spread and secondary market trading sentiment, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds [48] - The allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds is ranked as 15Y>20Y>10Y>30Y [50] - Some issuers of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank secondary capital bonds are recommended, such as Chengtong Holdings, Shenzhen Metro, etc. [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (from August 4th to August 8th), in the primary market, the issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of traditional credit bonds all increased compared to last week; the net financing of asset - backed securities increased by 20.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The weighted average issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased, while the issuance costs of other bond types decreased to varying degrees [1]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds decreased by 168.2 billion yuan compared to last week, and the turnover rate declined overall. The yields of credit bonds within 5 years performed well, with yields of different - rated credit bonds decreasing by 1 - 5 BP, while the long - end performance was average. Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly [2]. - There were 46 bond implicit ratings downgraded this week. The "H22 Guohou 1" issued by Guohou Asset Management Co., Ltd. defaulted, and the "H6 Chuying 02" issued by Chuying Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Group Co., Ltd. was extended [2]. - The redemption of bond funds eased this week, and the new tax policy increased the cost - effectiveness of general credit bonds, which was a short - term positive for long - duration credit bonds. The compression of ultra - long - term credit bond spreads has not reached last year's low. Although the proportion of low - valuation transaction volumes and TKN transactions has increased this year, the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that there is room for the buying sentiment to recover. The market trend may further develop towards long - duration assets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 315.9 billion yuan, an increase of 215.7 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance volume was 499.6 billion yuan, an increase of 268.3 billion yuan, and the total repayment volume was 183.7 billion yuan, an increase of 52.6 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 8.1 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9 billion yuan [8]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 76.7 billion yuan, an increase of 65.7 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 149.3 billion yuan, an increase of 90.2 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 89.9 billion yuan, an increase of 59.8 billion yuan [8]. - In terms of the number of issuances and redemptions, the number of urban investment bond issuances increased by 69, and the number of redemptions decreased by 30; the number of industrial bond issuances increased by 124, and the number of redemptions increased by 9; the number of financial bond issuances increased by 28, and the number of redemptions increased by 3 [11]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased, while the issuance costs of other bond types decreased to varying degrees. The issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased by 37 BP, mainly due to the high - rate issuance of "25 Weifang Bank Perpetual Bond 01" and "25 Guorui 01". The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds decreased by 59 BP, mainly because the new bonds issued by AA industrial entities this week with a total scale of 2.238 billion yuan had an issuance rate of 2.2% or lower. The issuance rates of other different - rated and different - type bonds decreased by no more than 13 BP [17]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 168.2 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 227.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.1 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 331.4 billion yuan, an increase of 400 million yuan; that of financial bonds was 398.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 153.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 900 million yuan, a decrease of 770 million yuan [19]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds declined overall. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.46%, a decrease of 0.11 pct; that of industrial bonds was 1.84%, a decrease of 0.01 pct; that of financial bonds was 2.67%, a decrease of 1.04 pct; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.26%, a decrease of 0.23 pct [19]. 3.2.2 Yields - The yields of credit bonds within 5 years performed well, with yields of different - rated credit bonds decreasing by 1 - 5 BP, while the long - end performance was average. Specifically, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds within 1 year decreased by 4 BP, 3 BP, and 4 BP respectively compared to last week; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds between 3 - 5 years decreased by 3 BP, 1 BP, and 2 BP respectively; and the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds over 10 years fluctuated within 1 BP [24]. - Taking AA+ 5 - year bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds decreased to varying degrees this week. The yields of non - publicly issued industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds decreased by 3 BP and 1 BP respectively; the yield of AA+ 5 - year urban investment bonds decreased by 3 BP; the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds decreased by 2 BP respectively; and the yield of AA+ 5 - year asset - backed securities decreased by 2 BP [25]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA+ non - ferrous metals and household appliances compressed by 7 BP and 6 BP respectively compared to last week; the credit spreads of AA+ computer, AAA electrical equipment, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery widened by no more than 2 BP; the credit spreads of other industries and ratings compressed by no more than 5 BP [26]. 3.2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By term, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 1 year compressed slightly, while the spreads of other terms widened slightly. The 0.5 - 1 - year urban investment credit spread was 31 BP, a compression of 3 BP compared to last week; the 1 - 3 - year spread was 38 BP, a compression of 3 BP; the 3 - 5 - year spread was 57 BP, a compression of 2 BP; the 5 - 10 - year spread was 50 BP, a compression of 2 BP; and the spread over 10 years was 41 BP, a compression of 1 BP [30]. - By region, the credit spreads of most urban investment bonds widened, and only a few regions' credit spreads compressed slightly. The AA - rated credit spreads of Hebei and Yunnan compressed by 6 BP and 12 BP respectively, and the AA+ - rated credit spread of Liaoning compressed by 6 BP. The credit spreads of other regions fluctuated within 5 BP [31]. 3.2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of industrial bonds fluctuated slightly within 5 BP overall, and the long - end spreads were under pressure for adjustment. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 1 BP, 2 BP, and widened by 1 BP respectively compared to last week; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA private - placement industrial bonds widened by 3 BP each; the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA - and AA perpetual industrial bonds widened by less than 1 BP, and the AA+ perpetual industrial bond spread widened by 1 BP; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA perpetual industrial bonds widened by 4 BP each [34]. 3.2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed differentiation, but the overall fluctuation range was not large. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds compressed by less than 1 BP, 1 BP, and 2 BP respectively; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds widened by 2 BP each; the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 1 BP each; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 2 BP each [37]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Rumors - There were 46 bond implicit ratings downgraded this week, including 31 by China Railway Construction Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., 10 by Shanghai Jinmao Investment Management Group Co., Ltd., and 3 by Luneng Group Co., Ltd. The "H22 Guohou 1" issued by Guohou Asset Management Co., Ltd. defaulted, and the "H6 Chuying 02" issued by Chuying Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Group Co., Ltd. was extended [40]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - This week, there were 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the open market, and the central bank conducted 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan for the whole week. The DR001 dropped from 1.34% at the Monday close to 1.29%. The active 10 - year Treasury bond showed no significant change from last Friday's close, fluctuating around 1.69%. Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of those within 1 year compressed slightly, while the spreads of other terms widened slightly. For industrial bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly within 5 BP overall, and the long - end spreads were under pressure for adjustment. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed differentiation, but the overall fluctuation range was not large [42]. - The redemption of bond funds eased this week, and the new tax policy increased the cost - effectiveness of general credit bonds, which was a short - term positive for long - duration credit bonds. From the perspective of credit spread positions, the long - end risk - free interest rate has been in a downward channel since July 2024, and the yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds followed suit. The credit spreads reached an extreme in July last year, and currently, the compression of ultra - long - term credit bond spreads has not reached last year's low. From the perspective of secondary trading sentiment, the proportion of low - valuation transaction volumes and TKN transactions has increased this year. However, affected by the strong equity market in July and the sharp rise in commodity futures prices catalyzed by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that there is room for the buying sentiment to recover. In addition, with the concentrated listing of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs on July 17th, the spreads of medium - and short - end component bonds have been compressed to an extreme. Driven by the "asset shortage" in the low - interest - rate environment this year, the market trend may further develop towards long - duration assets [43]. - From the timing signal of ultra - long - term credit bonds, using the spread between the yield to maturity of AAA+ ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and the Treasury bond rate of the same term as the observation object and constructing a Bollinger Band with the 60 - day average spread ± 2 standard deviations, as of August 8th, the 10 - year spread touched the 60 - day moving average but did not form an effective breakthrough; the 15 - year and 20 - year spreads have effectively broken through the average and touched the upper limit of the channel since the adjustment in late July; the 30 - year spread is still hovering near the lower limit of the channel without an obvious trend. In terms of the term structure, the 15 - 20 - year ultra - long - term credit bonds have relatively high cost - effectiveness after the adjustment catalyzed by the "anti - involution" market. The ranking of the allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds from high to low is 15Y > 20Y > 10Y > 30Y [44]. - Specifically, issuers with relatively large outstanding volumes, more than 50 cumulative transactions from January 1st to August 5th, and a weighted average yield to call of over 2% in industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank Tier 2 capital bonds are recommended. In industrial bonds, State Grid Corporation of China has the largest outstanding volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds and active trading, but its yield level is relatively low. China Chengtong Holdings Group Co., Ltd., Sinochem Group Co., Ltd., Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, and Guangzhou Yuexiu Group Co., Ltd. have both yield levels and activity, and are relatively more cost - effective. In urban investment bonds, most have better static coupon rates than industrial bonds, but the range of available outstanding bonds is relatively narrow. Attention can be paid to the further compression opportunities of the spreads of ultra - long - term bonds of issuers such as Shenzhen Metro Group Co., Ltd., Shaanxi Transportation Holding Group Co., Ltd., Yantai Guofeng Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., and Sichuan Expressway Construction and Development Group Co., Ltd. In bank Tier 2 capital bonds, the outstanding ultra - long - term bonds are mainly concentrated in several large state - owned and joint - stock commercial banks, and their yield levels are relatively less cost - effective compared to industrial and urban investment bonds [49].

Group 1 - The total issuance of credit bonds reached 4,379.57 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 71.67% [4] - Industrial bonds accounted for 1,759.48 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week increase of 37.05% and 40.17% of the total issuance [4] - Financial bonds saw a significant increase in issuance, totaling 1,422.00 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 270.31%, making up 32.47% of the total [4] Group 2 - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.22 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.89 years and financial bonds at 1.90 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.11%, with industrial bonds at 2.04% and financial bonds at 1.78% [4] Group 3 - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 12,633.76 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 11.51% [7] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 3,738.34 billion yuan, down 28.05%, accounting for 29.59% of the total trading volume [7] - Company bonds saw an increase in trading volume to 3,523.4 billion yuan, up 11.18%, representing 27.89% of the total [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the new VAT regulations have disrupted market expectations. Interest - rate bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with policy - bank bonds performing weaker than treasury bonds. Credit spreads have compressed across the board. The spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds have mostly declined, while the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds have increased and those of urban investment bonds have remained largely stable [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. New VAT Regulations Disrupt Interest Rates, Credit Spreads Compress Across the Board - The new VAT regulations have disturbed market expectations. Interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, and policy - bank bonds underperformed treasury bonds. The 10Y policy - bank bond yield rose 2BP, while the 1Y and 7Y yields of China Development Bank bonds remained flat, and the 3Y and 5Y yields declined 1BP respectively. Ordinary credit bonds were not affected by the new regulations, performing stronger than interest - rate bonds, with most yields declining, and high - grade varieties performing slightly better. Credit spreads compressed across the board [2][5]. 2. Urban Investment Bond Spreads Mostly Decline by 2 - 3BP - The spreads of externally rated AAA, AA +, and AA urban investment platforms declined by 2BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively compared to last week. By administrative level, the spreads of provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms generally declined by 3BP [2][9]. 3. Industrial Bond Spreads Mostly Decline, Spreads of Mixed - Ownership Real - Estate Bonds Compress Significantly - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds declined by 1 - 3BP, those of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds declined by 19BP, and those of private real - estate bonds declined by 249BP. The spreads of AAA and AA + coal bonds declined by 2BP and 3BP respectively, and those of AA coal bonds remained flat. The spreads of all grades of steel bonds declined by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads of AAA and AA + chemical bonds declined by 1BP and 3BP respectively [2][18]. 4. Yields of Secondary Perpetual Bonds Decline Across the Board, Medium - and Low - Grade Varieties Perform Slightly Better - This week, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined across the board, with medium - and low - grade varieties performing slightly better, and the spread reduction of high - grade 3 - 5 year varieties being smaller. The 1Y yields of all grades of secondary perpetual bonds declined by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads compressed similarly. The 3Y yields of AAA - secondary perpetual bonds declined by 2 - 3BP, with spreads compressing by 1 - 2BP; the yields of AA + and AA grades declined by 4 - 5BP, with spreads compressing by 3 - 4BP. The 5Y yields of AA + and above grades declined by 1 - 2BP, with spreads compressing by 0 - 1BP; the yields of AA grades declined by 4 - 6BP, with spreads compressing by 3 - 4BP [2][24]. 5. Excess Spreads of 5Y Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increase, Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds Remain Largely Stable - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.25BP to 7.41BP, at the 7.41% percentile since 2015; the excess spreads of industrial AAA 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 4.17BP to 11.82BP, at the 23.04% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.56BP to 5.16BP, at the 2.79% percentile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 0.42BP to 10.91BP, at the 13.94% percentile [2][26]. 6. Explanation of Credit Spread Database Compilation - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical percentiles starting from the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, also with historical percentiles starting from the beginning of 2015 [28][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a weekly observation of credit bonds from August 4th to August 8th, 2025. It shows that credit - bond issuance increased significantly on the primary market, while the total trading volume decreased on the secondary market. Industry and regional credit spreads showed mixed trends [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - From August 4th to August 8th, 2025, 411 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 437.957 billion yuan, a 71.67% increase compared to the previous period [1][11]. - In terms of issuance scale, 185 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 175.948 billion yuan (a 37.05% increase and accounting for 40.17% of the total); 184 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 119.809 billion yuan (a 35.62% increase and accounting for 27.36% of the total); 42 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 142.2 billion yuan (a 270.31% increase and accounting for 32.47% of the total) [1][11]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 3.22 years, with industrial bonds at 2.89 years, urban investment bonds at 3.83 years, and financial bonds at 1.90 years [1][13]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.11%, with industrial bonds at 2.04%, urban investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.78% [2][17]. 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Five credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week [3][22]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - Industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. For AAA - rated industries, the credit spread of the automobile industry increased the most (2.3BP), while that of the mining industry decreased the most (1.5BP); for AA + - rated industries, the computer industry increased the most (6.5BP), and the non - ferrous metals industry decreased the most (11.8BP); for AA - rated industries, the commercial trade industry increased the most (6.7BP), and the media industry decreased the most (2.8BP) [3][24]. - Coal credit spreads decreased overall, while steel credit spreads showed mixed trends. AAA and AA + - rated coal credit spreads decreased by 0.4BP and 0.3BP respectively; AAA and AA + - rated steel credit spreads increased by 1BP and decreased by 2.1BP respectively [24]. - Urban investment credit spreads of all levels decreased overall, while non - urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. The three levels of urban investment credit spreads decreased by 0.5BP, 0.8BP, and 1.5BP respectively; the three levels of non - urban investment credit spreads increased by 0.1BP, 0.6BP, and decreased by 0.6BP respectively [24]. - State - owned enterprise credit spreads showed mixed trends, while private enterprise credit spreads decreased overall. The three levels of central state - owned enterprise credit spreads increased by 0.4BP, 1BP, and decreased by 2.3BP respectively; the three levels of local state - owned enterprise credit spreads decreased by 0.2BP, 0.7BP, and 0.9BP respectively; the three levels of private enterprise credit spreads decreased by 0.1BP, 0.1BP, and 6.3BP respectively [25]. - Regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. In terms of spread levels, for AAA - rated regions, the top three were Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Liaoning; for AA + - rated regions, the top three were Qinghai, Gansu, and Shaanxi; for AA - rated regions, the top three were Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Sichuan. In terms of month - on - month changes, for AAA - rated regions, Yunnan increased the most (0.4BP), and Jilin decreased the most (2BP); for AA + - rated regions, Qinghai increased the most (4.6BP), and Liaoning decreased the most (7BP); for AA - rated regions, Shaanxi increased the most (0.5BP), and Hebei decreased the most (21.8BP) [26]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1263.376 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.51% compared to the previous period. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 373.834 billion yuan (a 28.05% decrease and accounting for 29.59% of the total); corporate bonds had a trading volume of 352.34 billion yuan (an 11.18% increase and accounting for 27.89% of the total); medium - term notes had a trading volume of 315.271 billion yuan (a 1.98% decrease and accounting for 24.95% of the total) [4][27]. 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of both urban investment bonds and industrial bonds narrowed slightly. The trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while that of industrial bonds increased [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Issuance and Maturity 3.1.1 Credit Bond Issuance - As of the end of July 2025, the balance of outstanding credit bonds in China was 30.3 trillion yuan. From July 1 to July 31, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 1217.195 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.53%, with a total repayment of 879.806 billion yuan and a net financing of 337.389 billion yuan [9]. - Urban investment bonds: As of the end of July 2025, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds was 15.32 trillion yuan. In July 2025, the issuance was 419.407 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 12.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.65%, with a net financing of 170.1 million yuan. Jiangsu had the highest issuance, and Qinghai and Liaoning had no issuance. Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hebei had significant issuance increases, while Hunan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui had significant decreases. Guangdong and Shanghai had large net financing, while Jiangsu and Hunan had negative net financing [10][13][15]. - Industrial bonds: As of the end of July 2025, the balance of outstanding industrial bonds was 14.98 trillion yuan. In July 2025, the issuance was 797.789 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 4.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.38%, with a net financing of 3356.88 billion yuan. Public utilities had the highest issuance and net financing [19][23]. 3.1.2 Credit Bond Maturity - Urban investment bonds: From August to December 2025, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan had large maturity scales [27]. - Industrial bonds: From August to December 2025, public utilities, non - banking finance, transportation, real estate, and building decoration had large maturity scales [31]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading and Spreads 3.2.1 Credit Bond Trading - Urban investment bonds: In July 2025, the trading volume was 1010.012 billion yuan, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a turnover rate of 6.59% [34]. - Industrial bonds: In July 2025, the trading volume was 1699.176 billion yuan, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a turnover rate of 11.34% [36]. 3.2.2 Credit Bond Spreads - Urban investment bonds: In July 2025, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds of all levels narrowed. For AAA - rated urban investment bonds, the average spread was 45bp, narrowing by 4bp; for AA + - rated, it was 55bp, narrowing by 3bp; for AA - rated, it was 69bp, narrowing by 2bp [36]. - Industrial bonds: In July 2025, the credit spreads of industrial bonds of all levels narrowed. For AAA - rated industrial bonds, the average spread was 45bp, narrowing by 4bp; for AA + - rated, it was 67bp, narrowing by 5bp; for AA - rated, it was 70bp, narrowing by 5bp [43][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core purposes of the new bond VAT policy may include two aspects: unifying the bond market tax system and increasing government tax revenue to relieve fiscal pressure [2][15]. - The move to resume VAT collection on bonds may signal a gradual reduction in tax - incentives for the investment demand side in the bond and capital markets, and the reduction rhythm is affected by the maturity of asset categories and macro - economic and fiscal factors [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond VAT Adjustment Policy Interpretation - Since August 8, 2025, interest income from newly - issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while previously issued bonds will remain tax - exempt until maturity. For new bonds, ordinary self - operating institutions and asset management products will be taxed at 6% and 3% respectively [1][14]. - The policy aims to unify the bond market tax system and increase government revenue. It may also indicate a gradual reduction in tax incentives in the bond and capital markets, with the reduction rhythm affected by asset category maturity and macro - economic and fiscal conditions [2][15]. 3.2 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Credit Bond Market 3.2.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - After interest income from interest - rate bonds loses the VAT exemption advantage, the relative value of credit bonds increases. The spread between self - operating departments' credit bonds and other bonds narrows by about 10BP, and the relative value of credit bonds may increase by 5 - 15BP for self - operating departments and 3 - 10BP for asset management products and public funds [3][20]. - The credit spread of credit bonds compared to government bonds may decline due to the increase in the benchmark rate of newly - issued government bonds. The new policy may attract more funds from local government bonds and financial bonds to credit bonds, and the market sentiment after the policy implementation will affect the timing of credit bond allocation [3][21]. 3.2.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - For public funds, although the VAT rate on bond interest income rises to 3%, their investment advantage in bonds still exists and may attract more funds into the credit bond market, bringing trading volume to sub - categories of credit bonds [6][29]. - For self - operating departments, with the VAT rate rising to 6%, they may increase credit bond allocation through funds, and pay more attention to urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [6][29]. - For other asset management institutions, with the VAT rate rising to 3%, they may invest in public funds or private asset management products and slightly increase the proportion of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [6][30]. 3.3 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Bank's Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds Market 3.3.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - In the short - term, due to the tax - exemption advantage of existing bonds, the demand for bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds in the secondary market will increase, and the yields of 5 - year tier - 2 capital bonds (AAA -) and 5 - year perpetual bonds (AAA -) will decline by 11.07BP and 11.44BP respectively. In the long - term, the policy may have little impact on bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds [7][32]. 3.3.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - Public funds still have the motivation to allocate high - liquidity bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and can improve portfolio liquidity through credit bond ETFs [8][35]. - Self - operating departments may increase the allocation of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and strengthen entrusted investment to reduce tax costs [8][35]. - Other asset management institutions may adopt a strategy of "shortening duration + exploring individual bonds" to deal with the tax policy change [8][36].

Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5% [2][12] - The expectation for rate cuts in the US has decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July, and the probability of a September cut falling from 90% to about 40% [3][19] - In the Eurozone, the expectation for a rate cut has also cooled, with the probability of a September cut decreasing from 42% to approximately 10% [3][19] - Japan's central bank has maintained its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation expectations being revised upwards [3][15] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has contracted, with reserves shrinking by $57.7 billion since the beginning of the tapering process, and a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July 2025 [4][27] - The liquidity in the non-bank sector is tightening, as indicated by the frequent positive spread between SOFR and EFFR rates, reflecting a significant liquidity squeeze in non-bank institutions [4][30] - The liquidity premium in the US dollar market remains elevated, with the Libor-OIS spread maintaining a high level, indicating that liquidity is still ample despite some tightening [6][40] Credit Risk Premium - Since July 2025, the OAS of US high-yield credit bonds and the CDS prices for high-yield and investment-grade bonds have seen a slight increase, indicating a rise in credit risk premium [9][45] - In contrast, CDS prices for credit bonds in Europe, Japan, and Asia remain low, suggesting a relatively stable credit environment outside the US [9][45]