Core Insights - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 260 billion yuan, reflecting strong market demand and policy support [1][3][6] - New bond ETFs have raised significant capital, contributing to the overall growth of the market [5][9] - The bond ETF market is expected to continue expanding due to ongoing product innovation and increasing institutional demand [7][10] Market Growth - As of May 19, the scale of bond ETFs reached 262.47 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 88.5 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [3][8] - Eight new bond ETFs launched this year have collectively raised 21.71 billion yuan, with their total management scale doubling to 44.08 billion yuan [5][6] - Existing bond ETFs have also seen significant net inflows, with notable increases in fund shares for specific ETFs [5][9] Investor Demand - The demand for low transaction costs and high trading efficiency has made bond ETFs a key option for investors [3][9] - The ongoing bull market in bonds and favorable policy environment have driven investor interest in bond ETFs [6][12] - The introduction of various policies aimed at enhancing the bond market is expected to further support the growth of bond ETFs [10][12] Future Outlook - The bond ETF market is anticipated to continue expanding, driven by factors such as increased participation from pension and social security funds [9][10] - The introduction of measures to enhance market liquidity and the growing interest from foreign investors are expected to contribute to the market's growth [10][12] - The current market dynamics, including structural volatility and macroeconomic factors, will influence the future performance of bond ETFs [12][13]

华创证券研报称，上周信用债银行间市场成交活跃度与交易所市场成交活跃度有所上升。其中银行间市 场成交额由上周的4320亿元上升至5501亿元，交易所市场成交额由上周的2341亿元上升至3362亿元。短 期信用债收益率下行、利差收窄的空间均较为有限，交易盘可等待市场调整后更合适的位置参与博弈， 当前重点关注确定性的票息机会，从绝对收益率的角度考虑配置。 5月19日，信用债ETF天弘（159398）走势震荡，截至发稿，微跌0.02%，盘中成交额突破24亿元，换手 率超56%，交投活跃。 从资金净流入看，Wind金融终端数据显示，信用债ETF天弘（159398）近7日持续获资金净流入；近一 周获资金净流入超4.53亿元。 中信证券研报称，债市震荡期，信用债ETF表现好于利率债ETF，配置价值显现。2025年以来，债券市 场宽幅震荡，利率债ETF表现下滑则更为明显，2025年30年国债ETF和国债ETF年化收益率（2月以来） 分别为-0.44%和-0.03%，国开债ETF和政金债券ETF的年化收益率也在1%以内，而信用债ETF由于久期 较短，波动率更低，在债市震荡期收益率下滑相对而言更可控，加权平均年化收益率为1.53 ...

从资金净流入方面来看，信用债ETF基金近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.30亿元净流入，合计"吸金"2.9亿元，日均净流入达7259.81万元。 中信证券分析称，2025年以来，债券市场宽幅震荡，利率债ETF表现下滑明显，而信用债ETF由于久期较短，波动率更低，在债市震荡期收益率下滑相对而 言更可控，今年以来加权平均年化收益率为1.53%，特别是在债市波动行情中表现相对更佳，因此相对配置价值也由此显现。 信用债ETF基金（511200）跟踪上证基准做市公司债指数，从上交所上市的债券中，选取符合基准做市品种规则的债券作为指数样本。成分券剩余期限分布 在0-30年，基本实现收益率曲线全覆盖，目前成分券数量为208只，每月定期调整一次，指数最新修正久期4.14，整体呈现中短久期信用债特征。 截至2025年5月19日 10:04，信用债ETF基金(511200)上涨0.06%，最新价报100.44元。 流动性方面，信用债ETF基金盘中换手12.61%，成交5.44亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至5月16日，信用债ETF基金近1周日均成交40.88亿元。 规模方面，信用债ETF基金最新规模达43.09亿元， ...

民生银行首席经济学家温彬对记者表示，降准0.5个百分点以后，整体存款准备金率的平均水平将从原 来的6.6%降低到6.2%。降准将有效熨平资金波动、稳定信用扩张和促进内需修复，并有效缓解银行息 差压力。 兴证证券指出，当前的信用债市场独立行情演绎了一段时间，从Carry、流动性以及市场弹性等多方面 考虑，中短久期信用债是短期内较好的选择。修复行情若能加速，则可以随着利率下行趋势的明朗化而 逐步由短及长进行信用债配置。 长江证券指出，后期市场逻辑逐步回归基本面验证。全周期视角下，利率债与信用债呈现"避险属性强 化、风险溢价分化"的联动格局，政策对冲有效性、信用修复节奏与跨境资本流动成为影响市场走向的 关键变量。 5月15日，信用债ETF天弘（159398）截至发稿跌0.02%，成交额超1400万元。拉长时间来看，截至5月 14日，该ETF本周（5月12日—5月14日）日均成交额位居同标的产品第一。 资金流向方面，信用债ETF天弘（159398）近期获资金持续净流入。Wind金融终端数据显示，截至5月 14日，该ETF当日获资金净流入超1.7亿元，已连续5日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"超3.4亿元。 规模上，截至5月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial policies announced by Chinese authorities aim to stabilize the market and expectations, with a focus on providing long-term liquidity and lowering interest rates to support economic recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) increased by 0.22%, with the latest price at 124.39 yuan [1]. - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was 10.76%, with a total transaction value of 1.746 billion yuan, indicating active market trading [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF over the past month was 9.21 billion yuan, and its latest scale reached 16.193 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, along with a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [1][2]. - The current economic environment is characterized by external demand pressures and an unstable domestic economic foundation, prompting further policy interventions in the second quarter [2]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Bond Index, which includes publicly issued bonds with maturities of 25 to 30 years [2]. - The ETF serves as an effective tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency, with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3]. - Multiple market makers provide liquidity for the ETF, ensuring immediate transaction execution and ample counterparty availability [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current bond yield is in a state where the upward space is relatively small and the downward probability is relatively large. Investors can be more optimistic than in the first quarter of this year [1][9] - In the near future, DR007 will steadily fall back to near the OMO rate. The "positive deviation" of DR007 from the 7D OMO rate since the first quarter of this year will return to normal, and relevant events in April accelerated this process [1][11][17] - The regulator should adopt a "soft landing" and "gradual" strategy in guiding the downward movement of the capital interest rate, which helps investors form stable expectations for monetary policy [4][21] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Wait for DR007 to Return to OMO - On April 30, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds had decreased by 3.6bp and 10.4bp respectively compared to April 25, which was consistent with the previous judgment [1][9] - Since 2018, DR007 has mostly run smoothly around the 7D OMO rate. In extreme cases such as 2020 and 2022, there were "negative deviations", and in the first quarter of this year, there was a "positive deviation" [2][14] - Whether it is a "positive deviation" or a "negative deviation", it is only temporary. The "negative deviation" in 2020 and 2022 only lasted for a few months and then returned to normal [3][17] - As the liquidity of the banking system becomes more abundant, the lending rate of large banks will also decline. The CD rate still has room to decline, and the decline of DR007 can guide the reduction of CD and other rates [3][21]

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近１月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 中长期借鉴>范佳音等>高美级目小在审指音 | 昌等级同业存审指基 > 现金管理 > 短债塞金>中长 | | 收益回顾 | >现金管理>含权债基 | 期债基 > 含权债基 | | | 近一个月资金面转松,关税冲击国内名义经 | | | 债市回顾 | 济增长预期,信贷扩张趋稳,债市情绪明显 | 1月偏强震荡,2月-3月中旬债市大幅调整,3月 | | | 改善后转而关注政策对冲和关税进展,债券 | 中旬以来转为偏强震荡。 | | | 利率快速下行后转为窄幅震荡。 | | | 行业事件 | | 1、银行理财、保险资管首次获得网下 IPO"打新"入场券。短期有助于理财固收+产品"稳中求 | | 跟踪 | 进"策略更好实现,长期或推动理财权益投资占比进一步提升,有利于产品多样化。 | | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | | 债券市场中长期仍有机会。美国经济"滞胀"压力 | | | -同业存单:预计利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the funding environment has remained tight, particularly with a noticeable increase in short-term interest rates. The article explores the remaining government debt supply for the first quarter, the liquidity gap in March, and whether the funding situation will improve [1][4]. Group 1: Funding Tightness - The funding environment has been tight since the start of 2025, with the central bank increasing the scale of reverse repos. Despite this, the pressure on liquidity has slightly eased from January to February, with a reduction in liquidity stratification [1][4]. - The central bank's operations included a resumption of 14-day reverse repos before the Spring Festival, while the scale of medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to decrease. The buyout reverse repo operations have provided significant support for medium to long-term liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt Supply - In March, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds will reach approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of nearly 650 billion yuan after accounting for 712.2 billion yuan in maturing bonds. Local government bonds are expected to total around 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a combined net financing scale of over 1.8 trillion yuan for government debt [2][14]. Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is projected to be around 260 billion yuan, indicating some pressure on the funding environment. However, after the "Two Sessions," funding rates are expected to trend towards easing, with the central bank's net injection likely to increase marginally [3][19]. - The article suggests that the central bank may primarily use buyout reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term liquidity during the phase of increased government debt supply, which could lead to a decrease in funding rates, especially for short-term bonds [19].

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