Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices maintained a volatile trend. On Friday, US media reported that the US was about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing oil prices to rise. On Sunday, OPEC+ members confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased. Refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Although short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, the pressure on crude oil supply release is relatively high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining a high total production, crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - From October 29 to November 4, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.49, BRENT decreased by $0.75, and DUBAI decreased by $0.76. Among refined products, NYMEX RBOB increased by $0.67, and NYMEX HO increased by $3.93. For other related products, SC decreased by 4.40 yuan, and Japanese naphtha CFR decreased by $2.57 [3][12] b. Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels, with the previous value being - 4.02 million barrels. BP's CEO stated that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand. TotalEnergies' CEO believes that global renewable energy will double by 2040, and there is no investment shortage in the oil market. The US Energy Department's deputy minister said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the top priority is to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve. Brazil's National Petroleum Agency reported that the country's oil production in September was 3.915 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [3][4] c. Inventory - According to the EIA report for the week ending October 24, US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a 0.91% decrease compared to the same period last year; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%; and crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.051 million barrels per day, a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. US gasoline inventories decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.362 million barrels. From October 23 - 30, the operating rate of domestic main refineries decreased, while that of local refineries slightly increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both main and local refineries decreased [4][5] d. Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices were volatile. On Friday, news of a potential US military attack on Venezuela drove up oil prices. On Sunday, OPEC+ confirmed a production increase in December. According to data, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports in the first 26 days of October were 1.89 million barrels, and the average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased, and refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded. Despite short - term geopolitical risks, the pressure on crude oil supply release is high, and crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not specified [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not specified [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not specified [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market still faces medium - term surplus pressure, but short - term geopolitical risks exist. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - position configuration opportunities after geopolitical risks are repriced [1] - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen further [2] - The asphalt market is bearish. The main contract has fallen, and the fundamentals show negative signals, with prices expected to decline under pressure [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate mainly, as the upward trend has ended, and the fundamentals lack strong support factors while the cost - side guidance turns bearish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Crude oil has shown a fluctuating trend this week. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in Q1 2026, but the market supply - demand surplus is expected to expand marginally in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Short - term geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela still exist [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally due to unexpected shutdowns and shipment adjustments at some refineries, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract fell 2% today. Construction in the north is declining, and the year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October. The decline in commercial inventory has slowed down, and social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time at the end of October. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The upward trend of the LPG market that started in mid - October has ended. The main contract fell 1.4% today, and the weekly LPG production volume has decreased. Chemical profit improvement has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion - end demand. The refinery storage rate has slightly decreased, while the full - storage rate has increased. The market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]

Overall Key Points - The report analyzes the overnight performance and future trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [2][3][4] Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% increase in inventory in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory accumulation of upstream crude oil is concentrated in the transit link. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations, and the suspension of production increase in the first quarter of next year reflects the organization's management of the downward risk. However, according to the current production increase path, the market supply-demand surplus in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year still faces marginal expansion. Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of the short-selling portfolio after the geopolitical risk is priced again [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The medium-term supply pattern of high-sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the previous high valuation faces correction pressure. The low-sulfur market has received short-term support, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten. The price difference between high and low sulfur is expected to further widen [22] Asphalt - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil and shut down, and the weekly output decreased. The construction in the north is gradually declining, and the construction in the northeast and northwest has gradually stopped under the influence of low temperatures. The south still has the demand for rush construction. Since late October, the year-on-year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has shown a negative growth for the first time, and it is likely to continue the trend of negative year-on-year growth in the future. The decline of the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year-on-year for the first time at the end of October [23] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG contract continued to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased slightly, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the increase of demand, and the cooling in many places has driven the improvement of combustion demand. The market expects the overall demand to improve. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio increased. The marginal improvement of the fundamental expectation still supports LPG [24] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was slightly lower than expected and the previous value. Recently, many Fed officials have spoken out against a rate cut in December, reflecting internal differences. The US government shutdown is still in the game stage, and the non-farm payroll data this week may not be released. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have built a high-level shock platform. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell in late trading. The market is evaluating the copper consumption at the end of the year. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for the eighth consecutive month, and the high copper price in China has suppressed demand. However, compared with the second quarter of last year, the spot side has improved its passive adaptability in the environment of "weak supply and demand". At the same time, the domestic social inventory has accumulated to more than 200,000 tons, and there is still a certain space from the critical point of the lagging reflection of supply and demand. After the short-term copper price reached a high, there is a certain risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the support toughness of the MA20 moving average. Some long positions can be held based on the key moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 million tons compared with Thursday. Since October, the domestic inventory and spot performance have been average, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year-on-year. The macro sentiment dominates, and the resonance of the aluminum market fundamentals is limited. In the short term, it fluctuates strongly towards the high point in November 2024, but the upward space is cautiously viewed for the time being [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open, the LME zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 161,700 tons. The divergence of the inventory between the domestic and foreign markets has temporarily stopped, and the cross-market arbitrage funds have the demand to take profits. The domestic mine TC continues to decline to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported mine TC also declines synchronously. The short-term rebound momentum of SHFE zinc is relatively strong. Short-term long positions can be participated, and the high rebound range is temporarily seen at 23,000-23,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: On Monday, the SMM lead social inventory slightly increased to 30,200 tons, which is generally low. The correction of SHFE lead is not smooth, and the fundamentals are mixed. The funds are more cautious to enter the market. The raw material overlap between recycled lead and primary lead smelters is increasing day by day. Under the background of winter storage, the smelting capacity is surplus, and the shortage of lead concentrate is intensifying. The price of waste batteries remains high and stable, and the cost of SHFE lead is strongly supported. The refined scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 lead is at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. Downstream enterprises tend to purchase low-priced recycled lead, and the trading of electrolytic lead is slightly sluggish. Affected by the game between cost and demand, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300-17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The weak downstream demand dominates the market. Although there are news of stainless steel mills reducing production, the actual implementation still needs to be observed. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high-nickel pig iron is quoted at 926 yuan per nickel point, and the support brought by the rebound of the upstream price is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the entire nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons. SHFE nickel is running weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated weakly. The tin market lacks clear guidance and mainly follows the rhythm of the copper price. In addition to the interference of the rainy season on the transportation rhythm, the closure of the Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania may also affect the export speed of tin products. The tin price fluctuated at a high level for a long time in October, and the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is generally average, but there is still demand for spot pricing. Last week, the social inventory of SMM and Steel Union continued to flow out slightly. Subjectively, it is recommended to short on rallies or wait for the right-side trading opportunity after a clear break [11] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipment volume decreased this period but is still at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, but the Brazilian shipment is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high this year. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly last week, and the profitability of steel mills reached a new low this year, with further production reduction pressure in the future. The progress of the Sino-US trade agreement has alleviated the concern about weak exports, and an important domestic meeting has been held. After the short-term rebound of the iron ore futures, the market tends to realize some benefits. It is expected that the iron ore will fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. There is an expectation of a third round of price increase for coking coal. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream enterprises purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory increased slightly. The purchasing intention of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coke futures are at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment declined rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting the environmental protection standards, but most of the coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production. It is judged that the price is difficult to continue to decline. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices generally increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory decreased slightly. As the safety inspection team is about to enter the main coal-producing areas, attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coking coal futures are at a discount to the Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The weekly output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Group 3: Chemicals Polyolefins - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The market is still dragged down by the demand side, and the bearish expectation of market participants remains unchanged. However, the positive impact of the maintenance of the Binzhou PDH unit will provide a window for bargain hunting and is expected to drive propylene to stop falling to a certain extent. For polyethylene, the number of domestic petrochemical maintenance units decreased, and the capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. The demand for greenhouse films and mulch films weakened, and other downstream industries showed no bright spots. The enthusiasm of factories for raw material procurement was dull, and the overall trading volume was limited. For polypropylene, the impact of new capacity and the weakening of unit maintenance intensity are expected to increase the supply pressure. The downstream operating rate is stable, with rigid demand support, but the downstream profit is limited, and the raw material procurement is cautious. The demand is difficult to release continuously, which still suppresses the market [29] Other Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol futures continued to decline significantly at night. The import supply is expected to remain sufficient, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The profits of most downstream products are not good, and the overall support for the methanol market is insufficient. Some coastal MTO units have maintenance plans in the future, and the demand of traditional downstream industries is expected to enter the off-season as the weather gets colder. The situation of high port inventory and high import supply of methanol is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the weak downstream demand further suppresses the market. The inflection point of port inventory has not appeared, and it is necessary to wait for the substantial implementation of supply reduction and demand improvement [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The chemical products fell overall at night, and the price of general benzene fell below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The arrival volume increased and the提货 volume decreased, and the port inventory increased significantly on Monday. The units restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly. The purchasing sentiment for low-price spot goods is good, but there are negative factors such as high import volume and falling demand in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm in the future, and the monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [27] - **Styrene**: The cost support is insufficient, and the improvement of the supply-demand situation is limited. The overall pressure remains. Although new units have been put into operation, the overall supply has still decreased slightly due to the sudden maintenance of individual units. The demand remains stable, and the supply-demand balance continues, but the high inventory structure is difficult to resolve, which keeps the price under pressure [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the cost support weakened. Under the weak reality, PVC is operating at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased, but the industry inventory pressure is still large. The maintenance of some enterprises such as Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Tianye Tianneng Production Area, and Hangjin Technology has ended, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The domestic demand is stable, and the export is mainly on the sidelines due to the Indian holiday and anti-dumping duties. With weak cost support and high supply and low demand, PVC may operate at a low level. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has become negative again, and the profit has narrowed. Some caustic soda enterprises have slightly raised the price, and it is operating strongly during the day. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory pressure is large. The enterprises' maintenance has recovered, and the supply has increased. The profit of alumina has been compressed, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and the replenishment intention is not strong. The non-aluminum demand growth is limited. The supply pressure of caustic soda is high, and the purchasing price of alumina has been lowered again. The downstream demand is average. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level. Further attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine. If the price continues to fall, the caustic soda price may rebound at a low level under the cost support [30] - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA closed with a doji at night, and the center of gravity moved down. The units of Wuhua Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua restarted, and the supply of PX and PTA increased. The supply and demand of PX increased simultaneously, the polyester load was stable, and PTA has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening in the medium term. Under the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, the reverse arbitrage idea is continued. Attention should be paid to the oil price fluctuation [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, the port arrival forecast increased, and the inventory increased slightly on Monday. The Zhenhai Refining & Chemical unit is planned to restart, and the supply pressure will be further manifested. The ethylene glycol futures fell with increasing volume and open interest. The demand is expected to weaken in the medium term, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The reverse arbitrage is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possibility of unit production reduction after the benefit decline [32] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybeans are expected to have better sales due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations and continue to be strong. After the preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino-US-Malaysian economic and trade consultations, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, and Sino-US relations may tend to ease. However, as of the time of publication, there is no official policy adjustment. There are already news that China has purchased some US soybeans, but it has not been confirmed through official channels. Currently, the domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the crushing profit has been repaired, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly this week. The atmosphere of Sino-US trade easing is strong, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of China's import of US soybeans in the future. According to Jin10 Data, the latest US soybean premium quotation is roughly the same as that of Brazil. A significant reduction in the tariff on US soybeans is needed to resume Sino-US soybean trade. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino-US trade eases [36] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures corrected at night. The new corn in the Northeast continues to be supplied, and the price is stable with a slight

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is in a volatile pattern due to the co - existence of supply pressure and geopolitical risks. OPEC+ decided to continue increasing production in December 2025 but pause in Q1 2026. The high inventory and surplus supply are bearish factors, while strong refined - product crack spreads, geopolitical attacks on refineries are bullish factors [1]. - Liquid chemical products faced a significant decline on Monday. Ethylene glycol has a supply - surplus expectation, and the styrene - pure benzene market may continue to decline without major supply cuts or demand surges [2]. - Overall, crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the chemical supply side still faces significant pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Overseas crack spreads are strong, but domestic refinery profits are under pressure. OPEC+ is more cautious about increasing production, and oil prices may move from the bottom - seeking to the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, asphalt futures prices lack support. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As crude oil weakens, fuel oil futures prices are on the weak side. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decline in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel crack spreads but faces negative factors such as weak shipping demand. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9][10]. Methanol - **View**: Suppressed by the high - inventory reality in the near term, methanol fluctuates downward. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the high inventory still has a suppressing effect, but there is still value in going long at low levels considering potential Iranian disturbances [24]. Urea - **View**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high inventory restricts the upward space of futures prices, while coal costs provide support [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The expectation of supply surplus suppresses the market, and there is no fundamental positive support. With the return of integrated refineries and concentrated imports, the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term under the expectation of inventory accumulation [15][16][17]. PX - **View**: Although some plants are under reform and maintenance, PX supply is not affected. With strong supply and demand, the profit supports the price. It is expected to return to the cost - and - fundamental pricing logic in the short term and maintain range - bound trading [11]. PTA - **View**: The supply - demand drive is limited, the market negotiation fades, and the basis weakens slightly. The price is affected by cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium term [11]. Short - Fiber - **View**: There is an expectation of weakening supply and demand, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream cost support is weak, and the downstream demand fails to keep up, so the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **View**: The cost provides no obvious guidance, the volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere fades. The price follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has stronger support during the factory production - reduction period [21]. Propylene - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term [29]. PP - **View**: With the decline in maintenance and high inventory pressure, it is expected to trade within a range. The decrease in maintenance leads to an increase in production, and the high - level inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the price [28]. Plastic - **View**: With the short - term decline in maintenance, it is expected to trade within a range. The supply pressure and weak fundamental support limit the price upside, and the profit support is also limited [27]. Styrene - **View**: There is still a concern about inventory swelling, and it fluctuates weakly. Although there are some disturbances in the cost - side pure benzene supply, it cannot reverse the situation, and the subsequent trend depends on crude oil [13]. PVC - **View**: The market sentiment cools down, and it fluctuates weakly. After the end of maintenance in early November, the production will increase, while the downstream demand is weak, and the export is also under pressure [30]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the cost rises. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. Attention should be paid to whether low profits can drive upstream production cuts [30]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods of each variety [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of different varieties are presented, showing the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of goods in storage [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, which can be used to analyze the relative price relationships between different chemical products [34]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the basis and spread monitoring of multiple chemical varieties including methanol, urea, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 5. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index is 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index is 2237.50 (+0.09%) [273]. - **Energy Index**: On November 3, 2025, the energy index was 1178.10, with a daily increase of 1.69%, a 5 - day increase of 0.79%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.06% [275].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The oil market is in a state of rapid inventory accumulation, with short - term oil prices expected to fluctuate. The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers and is advised to remain on the sidelines. Copper prices have a callback risk after hitting highs. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. Other commodities also have their own price trends and influencing factors, and the stock and bond markets are also in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced in [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a supply pattern that is becoming more relaxed, and the previous high valuation faces a correction. The low - sulfur fuel market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is expected to widen further [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The LPG contract continues to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly commodity volume slightly decreases while the arrival volume increases significantly. The demand is expected to improve, and the fundamental improvement still supports the price [24] - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continue to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is slightly lower than expected, and the Fed officials have internal differences on interest rate cuts. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for now [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The London copper price fell at the end of the session. The US manufacturing PMI has been shrinking, and high domestic copper prices suppress demand. There is a risk of a short - term correction after the price hits a high, and attention should be paid to the support of the MA20 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuates. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year - on - year. The short - term trend is slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open. The LME zinc inventory has slightly increased, and the domestic social inventory has decreased. The short - term rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [8] - **Lead**: The SMM lead social inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price is weakly operating. The downstream demand is weak, and the price support from the upstream is weakening [10] - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates softly. The market lacks clear guidance and follows the copper price trend. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies or wait for a clear breakthrough [11] - **Alumina**: The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, the inventory is rising, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. The price is mainly weak, and the rebound space is limited [7] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it is difficult for the cast aluminum alloy to have an independent market and continues to follow the aluminum price [6] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price fluctuates weakly. The global shipment has decreased, and the domestic arrival volume has reached a new high. The iron water production has decreased, and the steel mill profitability is at a new low. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The coke price fluctuates downward. There is an expectation of a third price increase. The coking profit is average, and the inventory is almost unchanged. The price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price fluctuates downward. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese price fluctuates. The demand is good, the production has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron price fluctuates. The demand is acceptable, the supply is at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Chemical Commodities - **Methanol**: The methanol price has fallen significantly. The import supply is expected to be sufficient, the port inventory may continue to accumulate, and the downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to wait for the supply to shrink and the demand to improve [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price has fallen. The port inventory has increased significantly, the plant load has slightly increased, and there are medium - term negatives. It is advisable to focus on the port inventory accumulation rhythm and conduct reverse spread trading [27] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is under pressure. The cost support is insufficient, the supply has slightly decreased, the demand is stable, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to resolve [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene market is dragged down by demand, but the PDH device maintenance provides a buying opportunity. The polyethylene supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The polypropylene supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to release continuously [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price is running at a low level. The cost support is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The caustic soda price is running at a low level, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is average [30] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices are moving downward. The supply of both has increased, the polyester load is stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is advisable to continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to oil price fluctuations [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price has fallen. The production has slightly decreased, the port arrival is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is advisable to conduct reverse spread trading and pay attention to the possibility of plant shutdowns [32] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures price fluctuates strongly. The US soybean sales are expected to improve, and the domestic soybean arrival is sufficient. It is necessary to pay attention to China's policy adjustment on US soybean imports and look for buying opportunities on dips [36] - **Edible Oils**: The prices of edible oils are correcting downward. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, the domestic soybean crushing profit is still in a loss state, and the palm oil supply is increasing while the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply from the origin and the performance of the soybean market [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed meal futures price has risen, and the rapeseed oil price is expected to be relatively weak. The rapeseed meal market is more affected by Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian trade relations [38] - **Corn**: The corn futures price has corrected. The new corn supply in the Northeast is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom [40] - **Hog**: The hog spot price has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. The supply pressure in the later period is large, and the pig price is expected to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [41] - **Egg**: The egg futures price is strong. The vegetable price provides support, the in - production inventory is high, and the far - month contract has a high premium. It is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen slightly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates. The cotton acquisition in the north is basically over, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [43] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuates. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new sugar - making season's output forecast. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price is strong. The high - quality apples are priced high, and the low - quality apples have inventory pressure. It is advisable to wait and see [45] - **Wood**: The wood price is operating weakly. The supply is under pressure, the demand supports the price, and the inventory is low. It is advisable to wait and see [46] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has risen significantly. The port inventory is high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Others - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has a shrinking - volume rebound, and the futures index is mixed. The geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly positive attitude. It is advisable to focus on the technology - growth sector [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures price has closed flat. The bond market interest rate lacks downward momentum, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [49]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC and its partners have announced a pause in their production increase plans starting from Q1 2026, anticipating a seasonal slowdown in oil demand, which may lead to an oversupply in the market next year and further pressure on oil prices [1][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices have seen a cumulative decline of approximately 9% over the past three months, primarily due to OPEC+'s accelerated production recovery and increased output from the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers [1] - Analysts indicate that the pause in production quotas signals OPEC+'s dynamic adjustment to market conditions, despite not significantly altering production forecasts [3] - Current market conditions show WTI prices fluctuating between $59 and $63, with a potential breakout above $63 possibly leading to $65, while a drop below $59 could indicate a return to a bearish trend [3] Group 2: Supply Risks - The recent sanctions on two major Russian oil companies have added uncertainty to the supply outlook, with concerns raised by energy executives at the ADIPEC conference regarding supply risks [1][4] - BP's CEO highlighted that the latest sanctions have materially impacted supply capabilities, although some oil-producing countries are attempting to reassure the market [4] - Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that while short-term price expectations for Brent have been raised, significant supply surplus pressures are still anticipated in the coming months [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as drone attacks in Ukraine affecting oil infrastructure, have contributed to supply concerns and market volatility [3][4] - The divergence in institutional views indicates a lack of consensus in the market, with the real risk being a rapid recovery in supply that could suppress oil prices and weaken the fiscal revenues of member countries [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Low sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. Despite OPEC+ pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced again [1] - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term, facing a callback pressure on high valuations, while the low - sulfur market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen [2] - The asphalt market has multiple fundamental negatives, with a decline in the main contract and a trend of negative year - on - year changes in shipments and an increase in social inventory [2] - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The overall demand is expected to improve, with a slight decrease in refinery storage capacity ratio and an increase in port storage capacity ratio [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory increase in upstream crude oil is concentrated in transit, and the surplus pressure will be more obvious in on - shore crude oil inventory [1] - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand marginally in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The medium - term surplus pressure in the oil market persists, and short - term oil prices will oscillate [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term due to factors such as full pricing of Russian supply reduction, high seasonal cracking spreads, end of peak power generation demand, and steady OPEC+ production increase, facing a callback pressure on high valuations [2] - The low - sulfur market has short - term support due to the accidental shutdown of part of the Kuwaiti Al - Zour refinery, which is expected to resume by early November. The restart of the Dangote refinery eases the regional supply pressure to some extent. The market also focuses on the progress of fuel oil quota conversion, which may affect the port supply structure [2] Asphalt - The BU futures market rose with crude oil in the morning but then declined due to multiple fundamental negatives, with the main contract closing down 0.58% [2] - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil or shut down, resulting in a week - on - week decrease in production. Construction in the north is coming to an end, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October, and this trend is likely to continue [2] - The decline in the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time this year at the end of October [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The weekly LPG commercial volume has slightly decreased, while the arrival volume has increased significantly [3] - The improvement in chemical profits has promoted demand growth, and the significant cooling in many places has boosted the demand for combustion. The market expects overall demand improvement. The refinery storage capacity ratio has slightly decreased, while the port storage capacity ratio has increased [3]

Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The current fundamental logic of crude oil is not smoothly realized, and short - term geopolitical risks may re - emerge. The energy and chemical sectors and the crude oil market have diverged again, with the fundamental logic being the main driver. Core products like synthetic rubber and styrene have been declining, and non - core products like methanol have also shown a downward trend. Due to the possible US military action against Venezuela, it is recommended to take active profit - taking actions on oil - chemical related products and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions after the event [1]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 3: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The impact of US sanctions on Russia has been digested. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the gradually realized supply - demand surplus. However, the supply - demand logic has not been smoothly realized recently. The probability of a US sea - air operation against Venezuela is high, which may affect the market similar to the bombing of Iran in July. It is recommended to take profit on short positions to avoid risks [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a small increase in positions and a long - yang line testing the short - term pressure at 471, but it did not break through. Technically, it has not turned bullish in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses and wait and see due to geopolitical risks [3]. Styrene - Logic: It is the most bearish product in the energy and chemical sector, with weak reality and weak expectations. The core logic is the continuous inventory build - up due to new device production and slow demand growth, especially with the approaching seasonal inventory build - up in January. There is a risk of price collapse. The possible US action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a small decline. The short - term pressure is at 6630. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter after the geopolitical event [6]. Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but inventory pressure and high raw material prices lead to low stocking willingness. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The short - term contradiction is not obvious, and there is a certain bullish driving force due to continuous inventory reduction recently. The medium - term focus is on when the inventory build - up pressure in the peak season will appear [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 15450. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [9]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The high supply pressure of cis - butadiene rubber continues, but the supply - demand contradiction is gradually weakening. The main driving logic is the cost side of butadiene. The high supply and high inventory of butadiene have led to cost loosening and the price hitting a record low. The possible US action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume increase in positions and a long - yin line hitting a record low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 10850. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter after the geopolitical event (cumulative decline of 13.5% since September entry) [13]. PX - Logic: High profits drive high - level operation, with sufficient supply and stable demand. The main logic is to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 6560. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [19]. PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The main logic is to follow the cost fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 4660. It is recommended to take profit on 15 - minute short positions [21]. PP - Logic: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. The supply - demand expectation is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 6670. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on the hourly - cycle [24]. Methanol - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue to exert pressure, but as Iran enters the heating season, the short - term buying time is approaching. The possible US action against Venezuela may affect crude oil, and it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions to avoid risks [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term pressure is at 2210. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions (a decline of 14% since the end of July entry) [29]. PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a record high. There is no upward driving force. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 4760. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Continuous inventory build - up has increased the downward pressure on the market. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 4050. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions (a decline of 8.8% since early September entry) [32]. Plastic - Logic: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. The supply - demand expectation is weak. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 6990. It is recommended to take profit on hourly - cycle short positions [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues. The demand has further weakened due to the planned maintenance of 4 production lines in the glass industry on the weekend. The downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The remaining hourly - cycle short positions should be held [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was a large increase in positions and a long - yin line hitting a new low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 1245 [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The operating rate remains high, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. The profit of downstream alumina is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force remains weak. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was a decline in positions and a rebound that did not break through the pressure. The short - term pressure is at 2400 [41].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/03 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/27 | 61.31 | 66.38 | 65.36 | - | 0.72 | -5.07 | 0.49 | 192.04 | 14.28 | 243.61 | 35.94 | | 2025/10/28 | 60.15 | 64.40 | 64.94 | - | 0.57 | -4.25 | 0.41 | 192.52 | 16.46 | 238.72 | 35.86 | | 2025/10/29 | 6 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is slightly bullish, and the medium - term view is slightly bearish, with a reference view of strong operation [5] - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract may maintain a slightly bullish trend on Monday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Performance - On the night of last Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained a slightly bullish trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.91% to 463.6 yuan/barrel [5] Driving Logic - After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, positive progress was made in economic and trade tariffs, but the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market showed profit - taking [5] - Due to the US increasing troops in the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, threatening Venezuela and escalating the South American geopolitical conflict, the international crude oil premium was boosted, which hedged geopolitical risks to a certain extent [5]