Group 1: PMI Overview - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.2%, remaining below the expansion threshold and lower than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 49.4%[2] - The new orders index and production index hit their lowest levels since 2013, excluding 2022, indicating insufficient rebound strength[2] - The manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for eight consecutive months, marking the longest period of contraction historically[7] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The rebound in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by a recovery in export orders, with the new orders index contributing 60% and the production index contributing 37.5% to the overall PMI increase[7] - The new orders index rose to 49.2%, with new export orders increasing by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%[7] - Despite improvements in demand, the production index only slightly increased to 50.0%, indicating a lack of robust production growth[7] Group 3: Price Trends - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 53.6%, reaching a five-year high for the same period, while the factory price index increased to 48.2%[7] - The rise in raw material prices suggests that the "anti-involution" policy effects may be becoming evident, potentially leading to a rise in PPI month-on-month[7] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes increasing household consumption rates and public service spending, indicating that consumption may become a key driver of economic growth next year[2] - The necessity for incremental policy measures is expected to be discussed in the upcoming December Politburo and economic work meetings[2]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Regulations - The People's Bank of China continues to enforce a prohibitive policy on virtual currencies, emphasizing that they do not hold the same legal status as fiat currencies and are considered illegal financial activities [1] - A new regulation has been introduced that eliminates the requirement for individuals to register the source of funds when withdrawing more than 50,000 yuan, allowing banks to assess risk before questioning clients [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in economic conditions [2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for November was recorded at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a contraction in the non-manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Strategies - Major securities firms suggest that the market is experiencing a low-volatility slow bull trend, with a need for significant changes in domestic demand to unlock market potential [9] - Analysts recommend positioning for a potential year-end rally, focusing on sectors such as technology, resources, and consumer services, while also monitoring upcoming policy announcements [10][14] - The market is expected to maintain a cautious optimism ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, which may set the tone for future economic policies [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, although the manufacturing economic activity did not exceed expectations, there were still positive factors. The emerging industries' prosperity rebounded first, the inventory problem caused by supply - demand imbalance was continuously digested, and the price upward trend remained unchanged with a continuous repair expectation for next year. The impact of new policy - based financial instruments on the industry and market was still in the early stages, and the actual work volume needed further verification next year [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Demand Drags Production, and De - stocking Exceeds Re - stocking - The drag of previous supply - demand imbalance on production emerged. The production index was weak in the past two months, and the procurement volume was below the critical value for two consecutive months. The "new order index - production index" reached a peak in September [13]. - Manufacturing enterprises have been actively de - stocking for nearly half a year. The inventory growth rate was already at a historically low level, and the downward space was limited. Compared with previous inventory cycles, this cycle had two characteristics: the peak was much lower and the inventory state switched frequently at a low level. The active re - stocking period was short, and the active de - stocking period was long. This was favorable for the bond market [16]. 3.2 Differentiation between Traditional Manufacturing and Emerging Industries - Traditional manufacturing has been in a downturn since April, with PMI below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. However, emerging industries showed improvement since September. The EPMI index of emerging industries was above the boom - bust line for 3 consecutive months, and the BCI index of high - quality private enterprises also rose above the line, with sub - items such as corporate financing environment and investment forward - looking index improving significantly [19]. - The improvement in the prosperity of emerging industries boosted the employment market. The BCI corporate recruitment forward - looking index improved, and the "Internet unemployment benefit search index" decreased. The 500 billion yuan new policy - based financial instruments, fully invested by the end of October, supported over 2,300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan, showing a strong pulling effect on emerging industries [19][25]. 3.3 Rare Contraction in Service Industry Prosperity - This month, the non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.6 points to 49.5, falling below the critical value for the first time excluding public health events. The construction industry was at the bottom, and the service industry was the main drag. The service industry PMI dropped 0.7 points to 49.5, which was a rare contraction. This was related to seasonal factors and the real - estate sales slump [5][26]. - Some industries in the service industry, such as railway transportation, telecommunications, and finance, were in a high - prosperity range, while real - estate and residential services were below the critical point [28][29].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 作者 宏观点评 PMI 连续 8 月处于线下的背后 事件：2025 年 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（前值 49.0%）；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（前值 50.1%）。 核心观点：制造业 PMI 已连续 8 个月处于荣枯线下方，本月小幅回升 符合季节性；分项看，供给和外需反弹更多，新出口订单指数明显回 升、主因中美贸易局势短期缓和；服务业 PMI 超季节性回落，主因假 期效应消退、以旧换新政策效果减弱。继续提示：近几个月经济呈现加 速下滑的迹象，但全年"保 5%"有惊无险，短期紧盯 3 大会议：12 月 上中旬政治局会议&中央经济工作会议、对 2026 年政策定调，12.10 美联储议息会议、是否降息很关键。此外，也要关注其它 3 类政策： 我国会否降准降息（预计 2026 年一季度之前大概率会降）；稳地产可 能的组合拳；短期政策接续，包括四季度政策性金融工具、结存限额下 拨、重启买卖国债等政策的效果，各部门对 2026 年以旧换新、谋划新 一批重大项目的"吹风"等。 2、分项看，关注供需端、贸易端、价格 ...

Core Viewpoints - The PMI for November shows limited recovery, primarily influenced by high inventory levels and the fading effects of holidays [2][4][87] - The manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but remains weak overall [5][88] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, marking a decline into contraction territory, largely due to a high base from the previous month and the end of holiday effects [3][87] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI reflects a "weak improvement" with production indices underperforming compared to new orders [2][9] - The production index rose only 0.3 percentage points to the neutral line of 50%, indicating continued weakness in overall production [2][9] - New orders index improved by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, slightly better than the same period last year [2][9] Inventory and Production Constraints - High inventory levels from previous months are constraining current production, with a notable "stockpiling" phenomenon observed in September [18][86] - The finished goods inventory index decreased to 47.3%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a faster pace of inventory reduction [18][86] - The purchasing volume index increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, but this recovery is weaker compared to the previous month's decline [18][86] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also dropped into contraction [21][87] - Conversely, high-energy sectors saw a PMI increase of 1.1 percentage points to 48.4%, indicating some improvement [21][87] - The construction sector's PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, reflecting ongoing expansion in civil engineering activities [29][87] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector PMI decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 49.5%, with declines across various industries including retail, accommodation, and transportation [3][35] - Despite the overall decline, certain sectors like railway transport and financial services maintained high activity levels, with indices above 55% [3][35] - The construction sector's business activity index showed improvement, with expectations for continued growth [29][35] Economic Outlook - The short-term disturbances from high inventory levels are expected to dissipate, and with supportive fiscal policies, economic growth is anticipated to remain resilient [4][41][87] - The easing of debt-related investment constraints is reflected in the improvements seen in high-energy and construction sectors [4][41][87] - Overall, the combination of external demand stability and the implementation of fiscal policies is projected to support economic resilience through the end of the year [4][41][87]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - November Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from October's 49%[2] - Production index rose marginally by 0.3 percentage points to 50%, indicating weak production performance[8] - New orders index improved by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, slightly better than the same period last year[2] Inventory and Production Constraints - High inventory levels from previous months continue to constrain current production, with finished goods inventory index at 47.3%, down 0.8 percentage points[3] - The purchasing quantity index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, but this increase is weaker compared to the previous month's decline of 2.6 percentage points[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors dropped into contraction territory at 49.8% and 49.4% respectively[3] - High-energy consumption industries saw a PMI increase of 1.1 percentage points to 48.4%, reflecting some improvement in investment dynamics[3] Non-Manufacturing PMI Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, entering contraction territory primarily due to high base effects and holiday impact[4] - Service sector indices for shopping, accommodation, transportation, and tourism all showed declines, with real estate and residential services below critical levels[4] Economic Outlook - Despite short-term disruptions from high inventory, the economy is expected to maintain resilience due to supportive fiscal policies and sustained external demand[4] - The construction sector's PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, indicating potential for continued improvement in business activity[22]

宏 观 研 究 出口带动低位改善 ——11 月 PMI 数据解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 PMI 表现如何？11 月全国制造业 PMI 线下小幅回升，低于过去五年 同期中位数 0.9 个百分点，构成制造业 PMI 指数的五大分指数中，新订单、 生产、从业人员均有所上行，原材料库存持平，作为逆指数的供应商配送 时间有所上升。趋势变动情况看，供需同步改善，外需相对内需走强，需 求端库存积压有所缓解，利润整体向上游倾斜。企业类型看，大型企业景 气继续下滑，中小企业景气有所改善。 评 此外，有三点值得关注：一是关税缓和出口带动需求改善。10 月下旬 中美吉隆坡经贸磋商达成一年期的"对等关税"缓和和前期税率下调或对 出口有较好的短期提振，11 月新出口订单指数大幅回升，这一表现与 5 月 中美日内瓦经贸磋商、8 月中美斯德哥尔摩经贸磋商两次达成关税缓和后 新出口订单指数回升较为类似。二是两个价格指数均有上升或指向 PPI 环 比向上。特别是购进价格指数连续 5 个月位于荣枯线上，11 月进一步大幅 上升至年内新高，或指向 11 月 PPI 环比向上。三是基建活动有望加速。11 月建筑业新订单指数和业务活动预期指数均较上 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the seasonal level[2][5] - New export orders index rose significantly by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, driven by the easing of US-China tariffs and improved trade conditions[5][19] - Small enterprise PMI increased by 2.0 percentage points to 49.1%, marking a six-month high, indicating a recovery in the external trade environment[5][12] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in service-related activities post-holiday[2][28] - The construction PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, indicating a low-level recovery in building activities, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects[32][34] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices indices increased to 53.6% and 48.2%, respectively, showing an improvement in the supply-demand relationship[24][25] - The finished goods inventory index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 47.3%, indicating a faster reduction in inventory levels, which may support future price increases[24][27]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 综合 PMI 跌破 50，货币待加力 11 月 30 日， 统计局发布 11 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.2%，前值 49.0%。非制造业 PMI 49.5%，前值 50.1%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，服务业 PMI 下跌，拖累综合 PMI 跌破 50%。11 月综合 PMI 产出指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 49.7%， 这是自 2023 年初以来综合 PMI首度跌破荣枯线。拆分来看，服务业、制造业、建筑业生产或商务活动指数环比 分别为-0.7、+0.3、+0.5 个百分点，可见主要是服务业的拖累。10 月适逢国庆中秋假期，居民出行、购物、旅 游、文体娱乐以及住宿餐饮消费表现较好，11 月进入淡季，这些分项均出现不同程度回落。不过这种季节性， 往年并不特别明显。今年 11 月服务业商务活动分项的回落幅度（-0.7 个百分点），在最近 10 年中仅次于 2022 和 2023 年同期（分别是-1.9 和-0.8 个百分点），其他年份多为持平或小幅上升（平均+0.5 个百分点）。 第二，制 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月30日 [贸易摩擦缓和后的回弹 Table_NewTitle] ——国内观察：2025年11月PMI [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 宏 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 观 简 评 ➢ 事件：11月30日，国家统计局公布11月官方PMI数据。11月，制造业PMI为49.2%，前值 49.0%；非制造业PMI为49.5%，前值50.1%。 ➢ 核心观点：中美贸易摩擦的缓和或推动11月制造业PMI的回弹，尤其是新出口订单指数 的明显回升。价格指数仍存分化，反映下游需求仍显不足。非制造业PMI中，假期效应 消退，服务业季节性回落；建筑业强于季节性，预期指数在高位进一步上升，但两者在 绝对水平上有差异，或是受冬季施工相对淡季等因素制约，后续实物工作量形成或推动 ...