Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs on low-priced consumer goods and durable imports [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rebounded to 61.8 in July, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment, although it remains significantly lower than historical averages [6][9]. - Retail sales data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reaching $720.11 billion, driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [6][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with the June CPI rising to 2.7%, primarily due to increased energy prices and the initial effects of tariffs on imported goods [9][12]. - Employment data showed a strong increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 jobs added in June, although the growth was largely driven by government sectors, while the private sector showed signs of weakness [14][16]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Consumer confidence index increased to 61.8 in July, reflecting a two-month rebound [6]. - Retail sales for June reached $720.11 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][9]. - Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, with energy prices being a significant contributor [9]. - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [14]. Essential Consumption - Beverage sales showed robust growth, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in May, while tobacco sales slowed down [2][28]. - Alcohol sales in May were $6.31 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, but overall sales volume continues to decline [2][24]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.49 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [28]. Optional Consumption - Restaurant sales in June reached $98.74 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer spending in this segment [3][32]. - Department store sales were $77.25 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][34]. - Clothing retail sales in June were $26.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3][36]. Market Performance - The optional consumption sector outperformed, with a 5.6% increase, while essential consumption saw a decline of 1.5% [4]. - The consumer sector remains under pressure from high valuations and inflationary concerns, particularly affecting low-priced consumer goods [4]. Employment and Credit - The labor market showed mixed signals, with strong overall job growth but significant weakness in the private sector [14][16]. - Consumer credit saw a sharp decline in May, with a 70% drop in growth compared to April, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [20]. PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.0, indicating continued contraction, while the services PMI returned to expansion at 50.8 [22][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic "anti - involution" policies have entered the implementation stage. Multiple industries and departments have taken actions, and there may be more forceful policies in the future [3]. - China's economy in the first half of the year showed growth, with consumption supporting the growth. Overseas, the US economic situation has inflation, employment, and interest - rate - related changes [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first half of 2025, GDP was 66.00 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and Q2 increased by 5.2% [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: From January to June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year - on - year. In June, the added value of the mining industry increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 1.8% [18]. - **Real Estate Data**: In the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, relevant real - estate data such as sales area and new - construction area had different trends [17][18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In the first half of the year, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, with private fixed - asset investment decreasing by 0.6%. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24,545.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [18]. - **Demand**: The purchasing manager index (PMI) in June showed an upward trend, indicating improved market demand [8]. - **Import and Export Data**: Specific data on export and import amounts in June are presented in the report, with different trends in monthly and annual comparisons [34]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, and the employment situation in the US also had corresponding changes [6][36]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In June, the single - month new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [37]. - **Credit Data**: In June, financial institutions' new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11 billion yuan. Loans were divided into different sectors such as enterprises and residents [37]. - **Money Supply**: M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, ending four consecutive months of decline. The core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][47]. - **PPI**: In June, China's PPI's year - on - year decline expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% [5][47]. 3.4 Overseas Economy - **US Economy**: In June, the US CPI and core CPI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the employment market remained strong. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July was almost zero, and the probability in September was about 75% [4][6][56]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Relevant data such as HICP, retail sales index, and PMI in the Eurozone are presented in the report [15][16]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: In July, the RMB exchange rate showed a two - way fluctuation pattern. Affected by the Fed's suspension of interest - rate hikes, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate fluctuated within a certain range [67]. - **Interest Rates**: Data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and bond yields are presented in the report, showing different trends [68][73][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Stock Index Strategy - A-share broad-based indices had positive weekly gains, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest cumulative increase of 4.63% and the CSI 500 rising over 3%. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US June durable goods orders had a sharp decline. China's June industrial enterprise profits showed a narrowing decline, and the CSRC aimed to consolidate the market. Considering the market sentiment cooling and high technical indicators, the stock index's slow bull trend remains unchanged, but there may be a near-term correction, so a defensive wait-and-see approach is advisable [12]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - In the bond market, funds are flowing out, and with macro events concentrated at the end of July and early August, the bond market may experience an adjustment in a volatile pattern. Whether to participate on the left side or wait for the release of position pressure depends on the investor's position, duration, and tolerance. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [13]. 2.3 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, better than expected, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences, such as small enterprises' contraction intensifying and the high-tech manufacturing industry remaining flat. Only 7 out of 15 sub - industries had better sentiment than in May [20]. 2.4 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, and the PPI also decreased year - on - year. The current price situation shows "food differentiation and services stronger than goods," and the core inflation momentum is still insufficient. The decline in PPI is affected by international and domestic factors, but there are also positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 2.5 Industrial Enterprise Profitability - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin, with the profit margin having the most significant impact. Enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 2.6 Fiscal Situation - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, while the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 2.7 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persists, and export - related production is weak. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5% [44]. 2.8 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 2.9 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 2.10 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. Although the social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters, there is still pressure for it to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 2.11 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Due to the Sino - US trade relationship and the leading growth rate of processing trade, exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 2.12 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. However, there were internal structural differences. The service industry had employment growth, while the commodity production sector was weak. The wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns and giving the Fed more reason to stay on the sidelines [62][65]. 2.13 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable. The Fed maintained the interest rate target range and emphasized high uncertainty, so it tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 2.14 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly. The current US economy shows a "weak expansion + high inflation" characteristic, and the growth momentum may further weaken [71]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Adopt a defensive wait - and - see approach [11]. - **Trend Review**: A - share broad - based indices had positive weekly gains [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows a potential correction risk for the market index [12]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Focus on taking profits [13]. - **Trend Review**: The bond market was volatile, and the treasury bond futures showed a downward trend [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may operate weakly in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences among different enterprise sizes, industries, and sub - industries [20]. - The price and inventory situation also showed different characteristics at the industry level, with some industries replenishing inventory and others reducing inventory through price cuts [23]. - The non - manufacturing PMI rose, mainly due to the increase in the construction industry PMI, while the service industry PMI declined [26]. 3.2.2 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, with food price differentiation and service prices being more resilient. The PPI decreased year - on - year, mainly affected by international and domestic factors, but there were positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 3.2.3 Profitability of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises may be adopting a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 3.2.4 Fiscal - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, and the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persisted, and export - related production was weak [44]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. The social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters but may face pressure to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 3.2.9 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 3.2.10 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. There were internal structural differences, and wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns [62][65]. 3.2.11 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable, and the Fed tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 3.2.12 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly [71]. 3.2.13 Weekly Focus - There are important economic indicators and events to be released in the coming week, including the US GDP, FOMC interest rate decision, and China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs [73].

2025 年 7 月 28 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-07-28 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。 7 月 30 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布美国第二季度 GDP 初值。 7 月 31 日 02:00，美联储将公布利率决议。预期本次美联储议息会议将维持联邦基金利率不变。 7 月 31 日 09:30，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会将联合发布 7 月官方制造业 PMI、非 制造业 PMI 和综合 PMI。 7 月 31 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布 6 月 PCE 物价指数 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 李欣越 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美日关税协议达成，发达市场多数上涨 发达市场延续上涨，焦煤大幅上行。 当周，标普500上涨1.5%，日经225上涨4.1%；10Y美债收益率下行 4.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.8%至97.67，离岸人民币升值至7.1681；WTI原油下跌3.2%至65.2美元/桶， COMEX黄金下跌0.6%至3329.1美元/盎司。 美国与日本、印尼、菲律宾三国敲定贸易协定。 日本方面，美国将对日本征收15%关税，低于此前威胁 的25%。日本承诺向美国投资5500 亿美元。印尼方面，美国将对印尼征收19%关税，低于此前威胁的 25%。菲律宾方面，美方将原定的20%关税降至19%。 美国7月Markit制造业PMI回落，欧央行维持利率不变。 美国7月Markit制造业PMI为49.5，市场预期 52.7，关税对于美国工业生产的扰动仍然存在。欧央行7月会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期，主因通胀 回到目标，经济表现符合预期。关注下周7月美联储FOMC例会。 风险提示 摘要 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓 ...

铜行业周报 2025/07/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that breaking through \$120,000 in Bitcoin and \$4,000 in Ethereum could lead to rapid market movement [1][7] - The administration is considering eliminating capital gains tax on housing to stimulate the housing market by unlocking transactions and enabling people to sell homes [1] - Re-industrialization is occurring, driven by AI embodiment, requiring hardware, data centers, and power, shifting focus from software to energy, materials, and mining [2] - The US grid system is under strain due to the energy demands of AI data centers, leading to skyrocketing megawatt per day pricing and a shortage of data center space [2] - The report highlights a potential shift in market leadership from the MAG7 to a broader range of companies in the energy, materials, and mining sectors due to re-industrialization and AI [2][17] - Bitcoin is catching up to gold in performance, and the report suggests that Bitcoin relative to the S&P 500 and especially the MAG7 is the most important chart for the rest of the year [7] Economic Factors & Policy - The Fed's independence is questioned due to fiscal dominance, with a massive debt situation and a deficit of 6% to 7% requiring lower interest rates to manage interest expense [4] - The report suggests that the Fed may need to focus on the debt and deficit problem, potentially changing its views on monetary policy [5] - The report mentions that the market isn't expecting a rate cut at the next meeting, so a cut would be a massive surprise [5] Labor Market & Automation - There is a massive shortage of labor in energy, physical world, manufacturing, and blue-collar companies, suggesting robotics may fill the gap rather than displace workers [3] - The report indicates a need for 500,000 workers solely for the power side of the electricity grid [2] Retail Investor Influence - The report emphasizes the growing influence of retail investors, with meme-driven investments and a shift in market dynamics [7][8][9]

PMI温和回暖但危机仍存 新华财经法兰克福7月25日电（记者马悦然）7月欧元区采购经理人指数（PMI）整体回升至11个月高 点，但地区和行业走势呈现分化。服务业保持扩张，而制造业虽有起色，仍处在收缩区间；法国私营部 门则继续萎缩。面对经济信号并不统一、美国关税谈判悬而未决等外部风险，欧洲央行24日维持三项关 键利率不变，强调"先看数据再行动"。 复苏基础仍弱利率决策因不确定性难以预料 市场研究发现，法国PMI的持续收缩展现出南北欧劳动力市场正在"对冲"的现象：南欧私营部门持续扩 张，就业强劲；而北欧部分制造业的裁员迹象已经显现。ING研究人员称，南北就业分化"最终让欧洲 央行的日子好过了一些"， 因为失业率趋同有助于货币政策的统一性。 欧洲央行的货币政策虽参考经济活动情况，但当前关税风险已成为其利率决策的最大考量。24日，欧洲 央行将存款机制利率维持在2.00%，主要再融资利率维持在2.15%，边际借贷便利利率维持在2.40%。这 是在综合考量经济温和增长、通胀水平稳定、关税风险骤升后的决定。行长拉加德不断强调，每次会议 都将考量多方面的综合因素，当前不确定性成为经济发展的最大风险之一。"任何与贸易相关的不确 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [11] Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in fixed asset investment growth, with a marginal improvement in the PMI for the construction sector, indicating a potential recovery in business activity expectations [6][19] - The report notes a significant decline in narrow infrastructure investment in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.1 percentage points [7][26] - The report emphasizes the steady funding for infrastructure projects, with a notable increase in special bond issuance aimed at debt replacement [9][60] Summary by Sections Investment & Orders - Fixed asset investment growth continues to slow, with June's manufacturing PMI showing a slight improvement, while the construction PMI increased to 52.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year and 1.8 percentage points month-on-month [6][19] - In June, narrow infrastructure investment reached CNY 2.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, while broad infrastructure investment was CNY 3.4 trillion, up 5.8% year-on-year [7][26] - The report indicates that overseas orders for construction companies remain robust, with a 17.34% year-on-year increase for China Energy Engineering in Q2 [7][41] Physical Workload - June saw a decline in cement production, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to May [8][50] - Data for July shows improvements in construction material supply and asphalt operation rates, indicating a potential recovery in physical workload [8][50] Project Funding - The funding availability for construction projects remains stable, with a funding rate of 58.89% as of July 15, showing a slight decrease from the previous week [9][58] - Special bond issuance exceeded CNY 500 billion in June, with over CNY 200 billion in new special bonds aimed at debt replacement [9][60] - The report outlines that the issuance of special refinancing bonds is progressing well, with plans to issue CNY 18,246 billion for debt replacement in 2025 [9][69]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,667, up 0.51% for the day and up 27.95% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5,743, down 0.05% for the day and up 28.53% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,605, up 0.65% for the day and up 7.58% year-to-date [1] Currency and Commodity Overview - The Renminbi Index is at 96.140, up 0.68% over the last month but down 5.14% over the last six months [2] - Brent crude oil is priced at $69.130 per barrel, up 4.43% over the last month but down 7.34% over the last six months [2] - Gold is priced at $3,366.24 per ounce, up 1.31% over the last month and up 21.53% over the last six months [2] Key News Highlights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a continuous rise for five trading days, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a new high not seen in over three and a half years [4] - The A-share market has also shown strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,600 points, marking a significant increase [4] - In the U.S. market, the three major indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new closing highs [5] Company-Specific Developments - Bubble Mart's chairman Wang Ning denied allegations of "hunger marketing," stating that production capacity is increasing monthly [9] - Three Life Pharmaceuticals has entered into a licensing agreement with Pfizer, raising approximately 785 million HKD through a share issuance at a 17% discount [11] - Tesla's stock fell nearly 23% following a report of declining sales in Europe, where new car sales dropped by 5.1% in June [13][14] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Markit Composite PMI for July is at 54.6, indicating expansion, although the manufacturing sector has slipped into contraction with a PMI of 49.5 [15] - The UK's Composite PMI fell to 51 in July, below expectations, reflecting economic pressures [12] - China's industrial profits for June showed a year-on-year decline of 9.1% [25]