Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Japan's manufacturing sector is experiencing a significant contraction, with the October PMI at 48.3, marking the lowest level since March 2024 and indicating a decline for the fourth consecutive month [1] - The decline in new orders is a major factor contributing to the manufacturing contraction, with the speed of new order decline accelerating, reflecting ongoing weakness in domestic demand [1] - Despite the contraction in current activity, manufacturers have a more optimistic outlook for future production, with expectations rising to a three-month high, driven by hopes for global economic recovery and increased demand for electronic products [2] Group 2 - The services sector in Japan is also facing challenges, with the services PMI dropping from 53.3 in September to 52.4 in October, indicating a slowdown in expansion [2] - The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, decreased from 51.3 to 50.9, reaching the lowest growth rate in five months and nearing stagnation [2] - Inflationary pressures are rising, with both input costs and output prices increasing more than in September, attributed to higher employment, raw material, and fuel costs, as well as a weak yen [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the plastics and PP main contracts expected to fluctuate weakly today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins is limited. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is uncertain, and oil prices are continuously falling [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, the agricultural film operation was stable with a slight increase in the start - up rate, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price was 6920 (+0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract was 41, and the premium - discount ratio was 0.6%, which was bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 58.0 tons (+3.7), which was neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, which was bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PE was expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [5]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season and performed well, while the demand for pipes increased but was still weak year - on - year. The current PP delivery product spot price was 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract was - 15, and the premium - discount ratio was - 0.2%, which was neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 67.9 tons (-0.3), which was bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, which was bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, the launch of new production capacity, the maintenance of the average downstream start - up rate, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PP was expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [7]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price was 6920 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6879 (+5), the basis was 41 (-5), the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 58.0 tons, and the social PE inventory was 54.6 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price was 6550 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6565 (+14), the basis was - 15 (-14), the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 67.9 tons, and the social PP inventory was 34.9 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [12]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally increased, with the production capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - data in September were mixed, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The domestic economic recovery couldn't be achieved overnight, and the economy showed a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. Macroeconomic policies should increase support to boost market confidence. "Promoting domestic demand and combating involution" would be important long - term policy focuses. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and in 2025, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month but Remained Below the Threshold - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the 5 sub - indexes, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry's was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the manufacturing was still below the threshold, indicating low prosperity, significant demand contraction, and insufficient economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. In September, CPI Declined 0.3% Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 2.9% Year - on - Year, Both Showing Improvement - In September 2025, the national CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to September was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year and increased 0.7% month - on - month [8][9]. - In September, the national PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The average PPI from January to September was 2.8% lower than the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI [11]. 3. In September, Imports and Exports Maintained High Growth Rates - In September, China's total import and export volume was $566.68 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. Exports were $328.57 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports were $238.12 billion, up 7.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was $90.45 billion, an increase of $8.69 billion compared to the same period last year [13]. - In terms of countries, in September, China's exports to the US were $34.308 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 16.1%; exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%; exports to ASEAN countries were $58.235 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year; and exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN were gradually replacing those to the US [15]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. In 2025, exports were likely to remain strong. The real risk for China's foreign trade was the potential decline in demand due to the increased risk of a US economic recession and the slowdown of the global economy [16]. 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and the Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Further Increased - At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year - on - year. The balance of foreign - currency loans to the real economy was 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% year - on - year [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, 851.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [18]. - In terms of residents' credit in September, short - term loans increased by 142.1 billion yuan, 127.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 250 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of enterprises' credit, short - term loans increased by 710 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan more than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 910 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan less than the same period last year; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, 471.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [19][21]. - At the end of September, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 1.2%, indicating an improvement in macro - liquidity [22]. 5. Industrial Production Accelerated, while Consumption and Investment Growth Rates Continued to Decline - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [25]. - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The consumption growth rate further declined in September, affected by policies and subsidy withdrawal, as well as the drop in oil prices [25][26]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [28]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real - Estate Sales Continued to Decline and was Moving Towards Stabilization - From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6,304 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In September, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline, and the real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage [30]. - From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new - construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [32]. - In September, the real - estate market continued the downward trend since the second and third quarters. However, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing was narrowing, and the inventory - reduction effect was emerging. The real - estate market was moving towards stabilization. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing would further narrow as the base decreased [34]. - At the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing was 759.28 million square meters, 2.41 million square meters less than at the end of August. The real - estate development climate index in September was 92.78, showing a slight decline month - on - month. There was still room for further strengthening of real - estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging. The first half of 2026 was expected to be a critical period for the real - estate market to stabilize [35][36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The October EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) significantly increased by 7.3 points to 59.7, marking the largest historical rise for this month, driven by seasonal factors and improved economic conditions in various sectors [1][6][7]. Group 1: EPMI Overview - The October EPMI reached 59.7, which is above the seasonal average and indicates a recovery in economic sentiment [1][8]. - The historical average for October EPMI from 2014 to 2024 is 58.2, with this month's value exceeding the seasonal mean by 1.5 points [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key indicators for production, product orders, and export orders rose by 11.7, 12.9, and 8.3 points respectively in October [2][11]. - The supply-demand ratio turned negative at -0.5, indicating that new orders are outpacing production [2][12]. - Price indicators for purchases and sales increased by 3.3 and 3.5 points respectively, contributing to a 9.6-point rise in profit indicators [2][13]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors of new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology showed significant growth, with increases of 14.9, 12.2, and 8.9 points respectively [3][18]. - Export orders for biotechnology, new generation information technology, and new energy vehicles rose by over 10 points, with biotechnology exports recovering to above 70 [3][19]. - The new energy sector saw a 6.6-point increase, likely influenced by positive price changes [3][20]. Group 4: Economic Context - The third quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.8% from 5.3% in the first half of the year, with production showing signs of recovery in October [5][27]. - The upcoming PMI data is expected to reflect a typical seasonal decline, but the EPMI's rise suggests underlying economic support [4][23].

Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index stands at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%[3] - The production index rose to 51.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, indicating active manufacturing activities[3] Price and Demand Dynamics - The major raw material purchase price index remains high at 53.2%, despite a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has supported the prices in certain manufacturing sub-sectors, with the specialized equipment manufacturing price index rising by 2.2 percentage points[2] - However, the overall demand remains weak, as evidenced by declines in finished goods inventory and new orders in the electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing sectors[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Overview - The non-manufacturing PMI for September is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating stagnation at the threshold level[4] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index improved to 49.8%, up 1.0 percentage points[10] - The employment index in the non-manufacturing sector is at 45.0%, reflecting a contraction with a month-on-month decline of 0.6 percentage points[10] Sector-Specific Performance - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, with a new orders index of 42.2%, indicating continued contraction despite a slight month-on-month improvement[14] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, showing a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion zone[14] - Notably, the metal products and automotive manufacturing sectors have shown significant month-on-month improvements in their economic performance[16]

Global Economy and Inflation - Global economic activity is declining, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 1940.2 points from October 4 to October 10, down 88.60 points from the previous week [4][15][16] - The CRB Commodity Price Index averaged 299.26 points during the same period, reflecting a decrease of 1.02 points [20][22] Domestic Economy and Inflation - China's official manufacturing PMI for September 2025 is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [5][27] - The average price of pork in China is 23.89 yuan per kilogram, down 0.28 yuan from the previous week [35][36] Industrial Production - The operating rate of high furnaces in China is 84.25%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [6][43] - The operating rate for rebar steel mills is 39.98%, down 0.67 percentage points [44] Consumption - Essential goods consumption remains stable, with the Keqiao Textile Price Index at 104.97 points, up 0.14 points from the previous week [7][57] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in China reached 222,400 units, an increase of 90,000 units from the previous week [59] Investment - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities averaged 17.40 million square meters, down 0.43 million square meters from the previous week [8][65] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased to 40.10%, up 5.70 percentage points [70] Exports - The export container freight index is at 1014.78 points, down 72.63 points from the previous week [78] - The total foreign trade cargo throughput at major Chinese ports was 27,217.5 million tons, an increase of 1,219 million tons from the previous week [79] Emerging Industries - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index averaged 6703.36 points, up 224.30 points from the previous week [10][83] - The DXI Index, reflecting DRAM market conditions, averaged 125,150.70 points, an increase of 8,496.98 points [84]

9月生猪产能供过于求，猪肉价格持续探底。中金宏观认为，在需求增量疲弱下，"反内卷"产能去化需 要遵循养殖周期，短期供强需弱格局未改，9月猪肉批发价环比继续走弱，同比降幅从25.0%稍微走阔 至26.3%。 能源价格方面，民生银行首经团队指出，9月国内成品油价格未调整，因国际市场油价波动幅度未达 《石油价格管理办法》规定的50元/吨阈值。 国家统计局将于10月15日9时30分公布9月物价数据。 机构认为，9月猪肉价格继续走弱，但核心CPI涨幅持续，当月全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比降幅可能 收窄；翘尾因素拖累减弱，9月全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比降幅有望收窄。 9月CPI降幅或收窄 机构认为，9月猪肉价格继续走弱，但核心CPI涨幅持续，当月CPI同比降幅可能收窄。 据国家统计局，8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，环比持平。 对9月份CPI同比增速，中金宏观、民生银行首经团队、兴业研究、华泰证券研究所、华创证券研究所 的预测值分别为-0.3%、0%、-0.2%、-0.1%、-0.2%左右。 对9月份PPI同比增速，中金宏观、民生银行首经团队、兴业研究、华泰证券研究所、华创证券研究所的 预测值分别为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is facing risks and adjustments are inevitable. The post - holiday market liquidity has quickly recovered, and margin funds have replenished. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" in the second half of October may lead to the growth track regaining the upper hand [2][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed an upward - trending oscillation. The basis of most contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The basis of the main contracts were: IH at 0.95, IF at - 24.63, IC at - 132.22, and IM at - 193.42 [2] - The A - share market showed an oscillatory consolidation trend last week. In September, the three major A - share indices all closed up, showing a pattern of Shenzhen being stronger than Shanghai. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 6.54%, the ChiNext Index soared by 12.04%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index soared by 11.48%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 rose, accounting for 42%. Power equipment led the gains with a cumulative increase of over 21%, followed by non - ferrous metals and electronics with cumulative increases of over 10%. Defense industry, banking, non - banking finance, and beauty care had the largest declines, all falling by over 5% [2] Comprehensive Analysis - In September 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity [4] - Overseas, the reciprocal tariffs initiated by US President Trump since April have had a negative impact on the global supply chain, and trade disputes will continue in October [4] - After the holiday, market liquidity quickly recovered, and margin funds replenished. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" in the second half of October may trigger market speculation around the plan, and the growth track may regain the upper hand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, despite the repeated US tariffs [2]. - The copper market in 2024 will have a slight surplus, while it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is disturbed, and the PMI in September shows an improved business climate. It is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86,675 with a basis of 775, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 10, copper inventory decreased by 75 to 139,400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week. It is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war are the logical factors affecting the market, but specific bullish and bearish factors are not detailed [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 - 2024, China's copper production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance are presented in the table. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, import is 3.73 million tons, export is 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [22].

Key Insights - The article discusses the recent U.S. government shutdown, its unique aspects, and potential impacts on the U.S. economy and markets [8] - It highlights the historical context of government shutdowns, detailing previous instances and their durations, with the latest shutdown starting on October 1, 2025, and ongoing [8] - The article also provides insights into economic indicators, including profit growth in August and the September PMI, indicating a shift from traditional to new economic drivers [10][11] Group 1: Hot Topics - The U.S. government experienced a shutdown due to the failure to pass temporary funding, marking the first such event in nearly seven years [8] - The shutdown is characterized by a focus on extending ACA premium tax credits and disputes over healthcare funding, with both parties at an impasse [8] - Historical data on past government shutdowns is presented, showing various durations and political contexts, emphasizing the recurring nature of budgetary conflicts [8] Group 2: Economic Data Insights - August profit growth is attributed to a low base effect and other financial factors, despite ongoing cost pressures [10] - The September PMI data indicates a notable recovery in new economic drivers, suggesting a need to monitor the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies in key industries [11] - Consumer behavior during the National Day holiday is analyzed, revealing trends such as a decrease in traditional tourist site popularity and an increase in cross-border travel [13]